Posted by ESPN.com's Chris Low
Unless something crazy happens, or more specifically, a series of crazy things happen, it’s going to be Alabama or Florida in the BCS National Championship Game if they both win out in the regular season.
And not both.
In other words, don’t look for a rematch for the national championship even if they’re both unbeaten, positioned at No. 1 and No. 2 in the next-to-last BCS standings and play another thrilling game in their SEC championship matchup.
Of course, they both have to get there unscathed for any of this to even be an issue.
But Brad Edwards, ESPN’s BCS expert, doesn’t see much of a scenario that would create a rematch between Alabama and Florida in the BCS National Championship Game if they both meet up in the SEC championship game unbeaten.
The first BCS standings were released Sunday. Florida was No. 1 and Alabama No. 2. The Gators were No. 1 in all three polls used in the BCS formula -- the USA Today coaches' poll, Harris Interactive poll and computer poll.
But even if they stay there until the SEC championship game and then play a classic game, Edwards believes several teams would have to lose again for there to be any chance of a rematch in the national title game.
Texas, which outlasted Oklahoma last weekend in Dallas, would probably have to lose twice. The Longhorns were third this week in the BCS standings. Southern California would probably have to lose a second time, and Iowa would also have to lose. The other team that might need a second loss for a rematch to occur is Penn State, according to Edwards.
“The bottom line, for a rematch to occur, is that the SEC title game would have to be an absolute classic, even better than last year's,” Edwards said. “Then the losing team would have to fall to only third in the polls, ranked just behind a team with a much weaker schedule, most likely Boise State. In that case, the computers would help make up the deficit in the polls and set up a rematch.”