Wednesday, November 27, 2013
SEC predictions: Week 14
By Chris Low
The weather last week was rotten all over the country.
Some might say our prognostications on the SEC blog would fall into a similar category.
It was all I could do to break even and finish 4-4 for the week. Edward was 5-3, which means he extended his lead over me to two games.
The ATL Kid is now 89-15 (.856), while I’m 87-17 (.837). We both missed Georgia Southern’s upset of Florida last week. Who did get that one right? We also both whiffed on LSU’s win over Texas A&M.
In addition, I missed Mississippi State’s win over Arkansas and Vanderbilt’s win over Tennessee. Edward missed Missouri’s win over Ole Miss.
So not a pretty showing by either one of us last week.
There are several toss-ups on the docket this week as well as some heated rivalry games. It’s the final week of the regular season, meaning all that’s left are the SEC championship game and bowl games.
Unless I want to finish with the silver medal for the second straight year, I need to bring my “A” game these last few weeks. The Kid, of course, thinks he has it won. He's even talking about letting his cat pick a few games going forward.
Here’s how we see things shaking out in Week 14:
OLE MISS at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Chris Low: Mississippi State needs this game if the Bulldogs are going to extend their bowl streak to four straight years. They gave themselves a chance last week with their overtime win at Arkansas, and Dan Mullen and crew will get their biggest win of the season on Thanksgiving Night over the “school up north.”
Mississippi State 30, Ole Miss 27
Edward Aschoff: The Bulldogs have all the momentum after an overtime win against Arkansas and Ole Miss' dreary loss to Missouri. Mississippi State needs a win to make its fourth-straight bowl game, while the Rebels are playing for pride and a second straight win over their arch-rival.
Ole Miss 27, Mississippi State 24
ARKANSAS at LSU
Low: The end of this season can’t get here soon enough for Arkansas, which has lost a school-worst eight straight games and looking down the barrel of its first nine-loss season in school history. Tiger Stadium is no place to try to get well all of a sudden.
LSU 35, Arkansas 16
Aschoff: All of a sudden, LSU looks like its old self. The defense stood tall against Johnny Manziel and there's an outside chance that the Tigers could make a BCS bowl game. The Hogs have lost eight straight and just don't have the talent to match up with LSU.
LSU 38, Arkansas 17
WAKE FOREST at VANDERBILT
Low: Bowl games are quickly becoming old hat for the Commodores. They’re thinking eight regular-season wins again after taking down Tennessee last week. In the past, this might have been a game Vanderbilt would lose. But not anymore.
Vanderbilt 31, Wake Forest 17
Aschoff: Once again, the Commodores are red-hot in the month of November and are looking for back-to-back nine-win seasons. They'll take yet another step forward, as they head to the postseason without a blemish in November.
Vanderbilt 31, Wake Forest 14
FLORIDA STATE at FLORIDA
Low: Talk about two rivals going in opposite directions. Florida has lost six in a row and is headed for its first losing season since 1979. Florida State is two wins away from wrapping up a berth in the VIZIO BCS National Championship Game. The Seminoles will be doing the chomping in this one.
Florida State 37, Florida 14
Aschoff: Nothing is going right in Gainesville, while the Seminoles are fighting for a spot in the BCS title game. Florida State hasn't scored less than 41 points this season. In the past four games, the Noles have scored 27 touchdowns, while Florida has just 26 touchdowns on the season. Enough said.
Florida State 34, Florida 6
TENNESSEE at KENTUCKY
Low: Between them, Kentucky and Tennessee are a combined 5-41 in SEC play dating back to the start of the 2011 season. The Wildcats’ last SEC win came over Tennessee to close out the 2011 season. They’ve lost 15 in a row in the league. Both teams are limping to the finish, but the Vols will squeeze out an ugly one.
Tennessee 23, Kentucky 21
Aschoff: Neither one of these teams is going to a bowl and both are in major rebuilding modes. But neither team has quit, and that's a good sign for the future. As for Saturday, Tennessee's edge in overall talent will push the Vols to their fifth win of the season.
Tennessee 27, Kentucky 23
GEORGIA at GEORGIA TECH
Low: The Bulldogs will have to finish the season without senior quarterback Aaron Murray, who tore his ACL last week. It’s Hutson Mason’s show now, and he’ll get just enough help from his defense to slip out of Atlanta with a win.
Georgia 34, Georgia Tech 27
Aschoff: The Bulldogs might be down Murray at quarterback, but Mason shouldn't have much of a problem filling in this weekend. Georgia Tech's defense has gotten better and they'd love to leave another dent in the Bulldogs' season, but expect Georgia's run defense to answer the call late.
Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 24
TEXAS A&M at MISSOURI
Low: Seeing Johnny Manziel struggle the way he did last week at LSU was surprising enough. But good luck in shutting him down two weeks in a row. He’ll bounce back with a vintage Johnny Football performance, and Texas A&M will throw a dagger into Missouri’s Eastern Division championship hopes with a wild shootout win.
Texas A&M 41, Missouri 38
Aschoff: If the Tigers win, they are headed to the SEC championship game in their second year in the conference. Manziel's slim Heisman chances could get a major boost with a win in a hostile Mizzou environment. Pressure hasn't gotten to the Tigers all season, and it still won't even with the most exciting player in the country in town.
Missouri 38, Texas A&M 34
CLEMSON at SOUTH CAROLINA
Low: This is one of the more underrated rivalries in college football. And lately, South Carolina has made it a one-sided rivalry with four straight victories in the series. No team has won five straight since Clemson won seven in a row from 1934-40. The Head Ball Coach, though, has had Clemson’s number, and it sounds as though Jadeveon Clowney will be healthy for this game. That’s bad news for the Tigers.
South Carolina 34, Clemson 24
Aschoff: The Gamecocks might not make it to the SEC championship game, but a BCS bowl is still on the line. South Carolina has won four straight against Clemson, but the Tigers are also fighting for a BCS berth. Clowney might not be on the same level as he was last year, but we'll find out if Tajh Boyd truly is scared of him.
South Carolina 31, Clemson 24
ALABAMA at AUBURN
Low: Raise your hand if you predicted back in August that this game would determine the Western Division championship and also have national championship implications for both teams. It’s been an incredible turnaround for Auburn, but even at home on the Plains, the Tigers won’t be able to stymie Alabama’s march to a third straight national title.
Alabama 31, Auburn 21
Aschoff: This is exactly what the Iron Bowl should feel like. The SEC Western Division is on the line and so is the BCS title game. Auburn has made the biggest turnaround in college football, while Alabama has been steady during its run to three straight BCS titles. The Tigers have the SEC's best running game, while Alabama has the league's best rush defense. Something has to give, but Alabama will keep the Tigers one-dimensional and continue its unbeaten run.
Alabama 34, Auburn 23