SEC: Blake Bortles

SEC viewer's guide: Week 3

September, 13, 2014
Sep 13
8:00
AM ET
Noon ET

UMass at Vanderbilt, FSN
When these teams met last season in Foxborough, Massachusetts, it was a competitive game before a Vandy team that would win nine games locked down a 24-7 victory. UMass gave Colorado a scare before falling 41-38 last weekend, so reeling Vandy had better come to play or it might be on upset alert.

Central Florida at No. 20 Missouri, SEC Network
When last we saw UCF, the Knights were suffering a heartbreaking 26-24 loss to Penn State in their season-opening matchup in Ireland. Mizzou is a 10-point favorite over the Knights, who won the Fiesta Bowl last season before stars Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson jumped to the NFL, but the opener made it clear that UCF can still compete with Power 5 opposition.

3:30 p.m. ET

[+] EnlargeTodd Gurley, Georgia
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY SportsTodd Gurley and No. 6 Georgia are looking for a second consecutive win over No. 24 South Carolina.
No. 6 Georgia at No. 24 South Carolina, CBS
Georgia's visits to South Carolina are almost always must-see TV, although these trips are rarely much fun for Mark Richt's Bulldogs. Even when Georgia has won in Columbia -- and it has lost its past two trips to Williams-Brice Stadium -- the outcome has frequently been in doubt even in the final seconds. Heisman Trophy candidate Todd Gurley should get plenty of work for Georgia in this one.

Arkansas at Texas Tech, ABC
Here's a fun clash of cultures for a national TV audience, which will see Bret Bielema's ground-and-pound face Kliff Kingsbury's passing attack. Texas Tech has a couple of nail-biter nonconference wins on its resume, while Arkansas is coming off a 73-7 drubbing of Nicholls State. The home team is a narrow favorite here, but this could be a good one.

4 p.m. ET

Louisiana-Lafayette at No. 14 Ole Miss, SEC Network
This looked like a sneaky good game before the season, with ULL coming off three consecutive bowl appearances. But the Ragin' Cajuns absorbed a 48-20 beating from Louisiana Tech last week and Ole Miss dominated Vanderbilt in Nashville, so it doesn't look like an upset is in the cards for this one.

Mississippi State at South Alabama, ESPNEWS
This will be the first time an SEC opponent has played at South Alabama and excitement is high in Mobile -- particularly after the Jaguars opened the season with a win and Mississippi State struggled to put away UAB for a while last Saturday. Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott and company need to turn in a complete performance with a trip to LSU ahead next week.

6 p.m. ET

Southern Mississippi at No. 3 Alabama, ESPN2
Alabama gets another opportunity to kick around an overmatched nonconference opponent, just as it did last week against Florida Atlantic. The good news for the Crimson Tide, a 48-point favorite, is that most of the starters should be watching from the sideline in the second half, resting up for a visit from Florida next Saturday.

7 p.m. ET

Louisiana-Monroe at No. 10 LSU, ESPNU
Les Miles is a perfect 11-0 against in-state opponents and most of those games have been blowouts, so there is little reason to believe this will be a close contest. That said, the Tigers' secondary should face a reasonable challenge from the Warhawks' no-huddle spread attack.

7:30 p.m. ET

Kentucky at Florida, ESPN
Wildcats running back Jojo Kemp (a native Floridian) poked the bear this week when he made comments about how good it would feel to beat a couple of his former high school teammates -- and current Gators -- and rub it in their faces. Kentucky looks to be a greatly improved team, but it will be a major upset if this game is still close in the fourth quarter, and Kemp's comments probably didn't help the Wildcats' cause.

8 p.m. ET

Tennessee at No. 4 Oklahoma, ABC
As with Kentucky, this is a major measuring-stick game for an improving Tennessee team -- going on the road to face an opponent that virtually nobody expects the Volunteers to challenge. Butch Jones' Vols have been impressive so far, but their inexperience along the line of scrimmage will be their undoing in this one.

9 p.m. ET

Rice at No. 7 Texas A&M, ESPN2
For the second straight Saturday, the Aggies can help SEC viewers get to sleep by drubbing an in-state opponent in a late-night matchup. Rice, a 31-point underdog, might put up more of a fight than Lamar did in losing 73-3 to Texas A&M a week ago, but it won't be much more of one. Kenny Hill and the Aggies win big again.

Schedule analysis: Missouri

May, 28, 2014
May 28
9:00
AM ET
[+] EnlargePinkel
Don McPeak/USA TODAY SportsGary Pinkel and Missouri start the SEC season with a tough test at South Caolina.
Nonconference opponents (with 2013 record)
Aug. 30: South Dakota State (9-5)
Sept. 6: at Toledo (7-5)
Sept. 13: Central Florida (12-1)
Sept. 20: Indiana (5-7)

SEC home games
Oct. 11: Georgia (8-5)
Oct. 25: Vanderbilt (9-4)
Nov. 1: Kentucky (2-10)
Nov. 28: Arkansas (3-9)

SEC road games
Sept. 27: at South Carolina (11-2)
Oct. 18: at Florida (4-8)
Nov. 15: at Texas A&M (9-4)
Nov. 22: at Tennessee (5-7)

Gut-check time: Once Missouri enters SEC play, it jumps in with both feet. The Tigers start with a Sept. 27 trip to South Carolina, which has won 11 games in three straight seasons and will rank among the leading contenders to win the SEC East this fall. The Gamecocks have won 18 in a row at home since Auburn won at Williams-Brice Stadium in October 2011, so history will not be on the Tigers’ side -- particularly since they’re 0-2 against the Gamecocks since joining the SEC and suffered their only regular-season loss at home to the Gamecocks last year.

Trap game: It’s funny to call a Missouri trip to Florida a “trap game” considering the wildly different spots the two programs occupied in the national hierarchy over the last 25 years or so. But Missouri is unquestionably in the stronger position right now, having rolled over the Gators and to its first SEC East championship last year. Nonetheless, a trip to Florida remains as a daunting challenge for Missouri, particularly considering how much offensive firepower the Tigers lost from last season. Will Muschamp’s Gators will almost certainly rebound this season -- there’s too much talent on the roster to expect otherwise -- and the Tigers will have to be on their game to beat them for a second straight season.

Snoozer: Like last season, Missouri opens the season with four straight nonconference games. Unlike last year, one of those games -- the Sept. 13 visit from Central Florida -- comes against an opponent that played in a BCS bowl last season. The Knights will be without their two offensive stars from last season (quarterback Blake Bortles and tailback Storm Johnson), so even they will be in reloading mode when they visit Columbia. That’s the only game in the first month that should provide any intrigue whatsoever for Missouri fans, as FCS opponent South Dakota State and Toledo and Indiana should fail to mount much of a challenge.

Telltale stretch: Expand the “gut-check time” section even further. After the Tigers open SEC play with an enormous challenge at South Carolina, they take a week off following the South Carolina game, then the Tigers will host Georgia. The Bulldogs also will rank among the leading preseason favorites within the SEC East. Then comes the trip to Florida. That means in three consecutive games, the Tigers will face teams that won the division in seven of the previous eight years before Mizzou’s Eastern Division title last year. Making the challenge of this stretch even more difficult, Vanderbilt comes to town after the Florida game. The Commodores lost coach James Franklin to Penn State, but they have won nine games in consecutive seasons.

Final analysis: Missouri isn’t going to sneak up on anyone like it did last season, not that it will have much of an opportunity. The first month of the season should provide a 3-1, or maybe even 4-0, record, but the SEC slate gets tough quickly. The Tigers lost a ton of key offensive skill players, plus defensive stars Michael Sam, Kony Ealy and E.J. Gaines, so September will be a key time for Mizzou to begin generating some positive momentum with new talent. The Tigers will need to be clicking to knock off South Carolina on the road, much less Georgia, Florida and Vandy in the weeks afterward. And even after that, they still have to make trips to Texas A&M and Tennessee -- to stadiums that rank among the nation’s most hostile toward visitors -- in back-to-back weeks in November. Gary Pinkel did a phenomenal job in assembling a 2013 team that surprised longtime SEC fans by making it to Atlanta, but it will require all of his coaching acumen to navigate this schedule successfully and make it back there again in 2014 considering how many pieces the Tigers must replace.
BATON ROUGE, La. -- The race to become the first quarterback selected in next month’s NFL draft is apparently down to three players: Central Florida’s Blake Bortles, Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater and Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel.

[+] EnlargeZach Mettenberger
AP Photo, Cal Sport MediaZach Mettenberger will get a chance to show he's 100 percent healthy at LSU's pro day on Wednesday.
But according to quarterback guru George Whitfield, who recently visited LSU to speak at a coaches clinic, there easily could have been another contender had Tigers quarterback Zach Mettenberger avoided the late-season injury that prevented him from showing off in postseason all-star games and at the pre-draft combine.

“If he was healthy, I think he’s right in this,” said Whitfield, who tutored Manziel and Virginia Tech’s Logan Thomas this year, after working with such prospects as Cam Newton and Andrew Luck in previous draft cycles. “I don’t think it’s a conversation of three, it could be a conversation of four if Zach was healthy coming down the back stretch. But I don’t think it’s going to be a shock at all if you see him go in the top couple rounds. Not at all. I think somebody’s going to get a great return on investment.”

At LSU’s pro day on Wednesday, Mettenberger gets his first major opportunity to prove that the knee he injured in the regular-season finale against Arkansas is stable. He already has proven that his arm is NFL caliber, which is why some draft projections have Mettenberger going as high as the second round after a standout senior season.

Mettenberger (3,082 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions) was sixth among FBS quarterbacks with an 85.1 Total Quarterback Rating last season. According to ESPN Stats and Information, he made the biggest jump of any qualified FBS quarterback after ranking 80th out of 122 qualified quarterbacks with a 47.1 Total QBR in 2012.

“I think he’s one of the best quarterbacks in this draft,” Whitfield said. “I thought the year he had and the growth he had this year, especially with [LSU offensive coordinator] Cam Cameron, just getting a chance to get out there and operate in that system -- [and to] have more responsibility. He was better in the pocket. It was just a shame he did take that injury toward the end of the season, but he just looked more confident, and he wasn’t just a big guy [who] was pitching anymore.”

Mettenberger is just one member of a large group of LSU prospects who will work out in front of NFL scouts, coaches and player personnel executives on Wednesday. Among those expected to participate are running backs Jeremy Hill, J.C. Copeland and Alfred Blue, receivers Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Kadron Boone, defensive linemen Anthony Johnson and Ego Ferguson, linebacker Lamin Barrow, safety Craig Loston and offensive lineman Trai Turner.

ESPN Scouts Inc. rates seven of them among the draft’s top 150 prospects: Beckham (No. 21), Landry (47), Hill (69), Turner (109), Loston (110), Ferguson (120) and Johnson (139).

Let’s take a closer look at three of them -- Mettenberger, Beckham and Hill -- with a statistical assist from ESPN Stats and Info.

ZACH METTENBERGER
In his first season working with Cameron, Mettenberger greatly improved as a downfield passer. He raised his completion percentage on throws of 15 yards or longer 14 points, to 53.4 percent, in 2013. Among ESPN’s top-10 quarterback prospects in this draft, only Clemson’s Tajh Boyd (53.7 percent) completed a higher percentage of long balls. Of the 10, Mettenberger had by far the highest percentage of total completions (67.7) travel at least 10 yards. Bridgewater was next at 57.1.

He was also outstanding against the blitz and on third down -- assets that should help convince a team looking for a pro-style pocket passer to keep him in mind. Mettenberger (57-for-85, 883 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions against blitzing defenses) had the second-highest completion percentage (67.1) against the blitz of any of the top-10 quarterbacks. And on third down, his 53.7 conversion percentage was the best of the bunch. Mettenberger went 58-for-89 with nine touchdowns and one interception on third down, and his 65.2 completion percentage in those situations was third among the top-10 quarterbacks.

JEREMY HILL
Because of the declining value attached to running backs in the NFL, it seems entirely likely that no running backs will go in the first round of this draft. Last year, the first running back went at No. 37 -- the latest the first running back was picked in the common draft era.

Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde is generally considered the top running back prospect in this draft, although Hill’s physical ability makes him an enticing target.

Hill faced eight or more defenders in a stacked box on nearly half of his carries last season (96 of 203), and yet, he still averaged an AQ-best 8 yards per rush in those situations and scored 15 touchdowns.

He was also a phenomenal between-the-tackles runner, picking up 7.9 yards per carry on runs up the middle, with about one in every five (24 of 118) going for at least 10 yards. On runs outside the tackles, Hill had 16 of 85 attempts go for at least 10 yards.

ODELL BECKHAM
Beckham is one of the draft’s most explosive playmakers, which is why ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. had him going 18th overall to the New York Jets in his most recent mock draft. He and Landry are both among the 15 wideouts who rank among Scouts Inc.’s Top 100 players -- the most receivers in the top 100 since 2005.

Beckham (59 catches, 1,152 yards, eight touchdowns, 178.1 all-purpose ypg last season) had an AQ-high 26 receptions on passes thrown at least 15 yards last season. He had at least two catches that covered such a distance in seven of 13 games in 2013, which certainly speaks to the big-play ability that has him so high on Kiper’s mock draft board.

SPONSORED HEADLINES

SEC SCOREBOARD

Thursday, 9/18
Saturday, 9/20