Eye on the draft: Weekly Redskins watch

December, 24, 2013
12/24/13
11:30
AM ET
ST. LOUIS -- Well, we've finally arrived at this, the final week of Redskins watch. For those who have actually watched the Redskins play all season, I offer my condolences on having to watch such bad football. If you're a Rams fan, I'm sure you're quite happy with how things are turning out.

After this week, nobody will have to watch the Redskins for some time. We'll finally know where the Rams' final first-round pick from that trade stands, and all of the draft speculation can begin kicking into overdrive. As it stands, with one game to go, the Rams hold picks No. 2 and 15 in the 2014 NFL draft.

Throughout the season there have been many permutations of how things could play out and where the Rams' pick from Washington could ultimately land. With just one week left, it's much easier to have a read on where it could end. Here's the easiest breakdown I can manage:

Games that matter for the Rams' pick this weekend:

Washington at New York Giants
Houston at Tennessee
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Denver at Oakland (to a lesser degree)

For the Rams to get the No. 1 overall pick from Washington:

The Redskins lose to the Giants and Houston beats Tennessee. This would leave both teams at 3-13 and go to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. That strength of schedule is fluid, but Houston's is much higher than Washington's right now and it would be awfully tough for those numbers to shift dramatically enough to keep the Rams from getting the top pick in this scenario.

For the Rams to get the No. 2 overall pick from Washington:

The Redskins lose to the Giants and Tennessee beats Houston OR the Redskins win and don't end up with the same record as Jacksonville. Oakland's strength of schedule projects to be higher than Washington's even if the Raiders and Redskins have the same record, though there's an outside chance of that happening.

For the Rams to get the No. 3 overall pick from Washington:

The Redskins beat the Giants and Jacksonville beats Indianapolis. Jacksonville figures to have an easier strength of schedule than Washington, which would most likely give the Jaguars the tiebreaker and move ahead of the Redskins in the order.

Bottom line:

All told, the Rams are in a terrific spot in that there's almost no chance Washington's pick will drop below third overall on the season's final weekend. Best-case scenario, they get a little help from the Giants and Texans and they end up with the ultimate prize. They're already playing with house money, but if you're a Rams fan, you can add Houston to the list of teams you're rooting for in the season's final week.

Nick Wagoner

ESPN St. Louis Rams reporter

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