ESPN College Football

Israel Gutierrez, Bomani Jones and Michael Smith discuss how good Andrew Luck will be in the NFL compared to Cam Newton.

The ongoing deck-shuffling that is NFL draft projections continued this week with ESPN's Mel Kiper and Todd McShay both releasing their latest respective projections.

They both agree on quarterback Andrew Luck as the No. 1 pick. No real shock there.

But taking a look at Kiper's latest Big Board, you see a pretty significant drop for offensive tackle Jonathan Martin, who slips from No. 13 last week to No. 19 this week.

Kiper isn't alone in his thinking. McShay's latest ranking of the top 32 players has Martin down to No. 24 after being at No. 17 last week.

McShay on Martin:

Martin continues to fall as other linemen emerge and his 2011 film shows him to be less dominant than expected. However, he still has the physical tools to become and NFL starter.

Kiper also dropped guard David DeCastro on his Big Board from No. 10 to 14. But DeCastro is where Kiper and McShay disagree. McShay actually moves DeCastro up one spot, from No. 14 to 13.

McShay also ranks tight end Coby Fleener at No. 29 (Kipers' Big Board only goes through his top 25).

Finally, Kiper released his Mock Draft 2.0.

Kiper on Luck and the No. 1 pick:

While the public relations drama continues between Jim Irsay and Peyton Manning, there's little drama surrounding whom the Colts will take with the No. 1 pick. I doubt Luck throws next week at the NFL combine, but his status among evaluators really isn't in question. Arm talent, strength, size, smarts, leadership, intangibles -- it's all there. The only question is whether he'll be serving an apprenticeship under Manning, but my guess right now would be that he won't have to.

Kiper has Martin headed to Arizona at No. 13 and DeCastro to the Bengals at No. 21.

Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay discuss the quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL draft.

Has everyone exhaled following an epic signing day? Good, now it's time to start looking ahead to the 2013 recruiting class.

Even before Isaac Savaiinaea (Honolulu, Ha.) had a breakout performance at the Nike Football SPARQ Combine in Honolulu last month, the 6-3, 231-pound inside linebacker already had a Stanford offer, writes ESPN's Mitch Sherman. Said Savaiinaea:

I’ve been getting more [media] attention, but it’s been pretty much the same with attention from the schools. They’re all great schools. Stanford is really the one that stands out for me, but I’m going to wait for more offers to come in.

To go with his Stanford offer, Savaiinaea has offers from Arizona, Colorado and Hawaii. He attends the Punahou School, the same school as 2012 Stanford commit, defensive end Luke Kaumatule.

In other Stanford recruiting news:

• Stanford and USC might be headed for another signing day showdown like they had earlier this month. The Trojans offered cornerback Johnny Johnson (Fresno, Calif.) to go with a Stanford offer, writes ESPN's Erik McKinney.
  
• Tight end Durham Smythe (Belton, Texas) has scheduled a trip to Stanford, according to ESPN's William Wilkerson.
  
• Head coach David Shaw said it was "safe to assume" that quarterback would be a priority for the 2013 class. ESPN's Damon Sayles reports that Stanford has shown some "major" interest
  in Kansas City, Mo., quarterback Trent Hosick.
• Here's a nice read on Doug Randolph (Woodberry Forest, Va.), Stanford's lone commit so far from the 2013 class.

With six Stanford players headed to the NFL Combine later this month, I thought it would be fun to check in with an old acquaintance who is an NFL scout and see what his take is.

Like most scouts, he prefers to stay off the record and keep his name out of it. So it's a rare treat when one actually talks on the record -- even if the name has been left out to protect the innocent.

Here are are his direct quotes on the Stanford six:

David DeCastro: "Good kid. Should be a good pro. I see the potential. How can I put this, he's supposed to be [one of the best interior linemen]. But it's all in the eye of the beholder. Everyone has their own opinion. I think the kid will be OK. But will he be an All-Pro? I don't know. He should be, if he works hard enough. He has to get his technique down. He just needs to stay on his feet a little more when he pulls. That's about it."

Coby Fleener: "He's supposed to be real fast. In my opinion, he dropped some easy passes at times. If he just keeps on improving catching the ball, that's about it. He should be pretty good. He's a guy that can split out and run against corner. He should be fine."

Delano Howell : "Delano needs to stay healthy. That's all. He stays healthy, he's fine."

Andrew Luck : "He'll be fine. I think he's as advertised. As a matter of fact, he might be better than advertised if he ever gets some wide receivers. We'll see. That's the whole thing. You look at Stanford, Stanford never had that."

Jonathan Martin: "Right now he's a right tackle. I don't think he's strong enough to be a left tackle. That's just my opinion. I've been hearing people say he's the best they've seen, but I think he needs a lot of work."

Chris Owusu: "Chris has a lot to prove. They need to see if his head is OK. That's the whole thing right there."

Some good news for fans of Stanford wide receiver Chris Owusu. Evan Silva of NBC sports reported yesterday that Owusu has been medically cleared to continue his football career.

For many, the lasting image of Owusu's Stanford career will be a thumbs up as he was carted into an ambulance on the field at Oregon State. It was his second concussion of the season, his third in a 13-month span and one of the most chilling sights of the 2011 college football season.

Others, at least those who noticed, watched him play the final snap of the regular season finale against Notre Dame after missing the previous two games -- a subtle, yet classy gesture by head coach David Shaw to get Owusu on the field one last time on Senior Night.

But it now appears that Owusu is moving forward. No doubt, he's received the best medical advice -- the article states Owusu was looked over by an NFL doctor. And in this concussion-conscious world, chances are a doctor wouldn't clear a potential player if he didn't pass the strict tests with flying colors.

From the article:

Per [Owusu's agent], Owusu has been symptom free since November 6 of 2011, one day after his last concussion. A doctor with the NFL Head, Neck, and Spine Committee has diagnosed Owusu as “perfectly normal” and cleared Owusu “to play football now.” The doctor also determined that Owusu is not at greater risk of concussions due to his history.

Up until his injuries, Owusu had been having an average season at best. On several occasions, Shaw stated that he had hoped Owusu would be more productive. He finished the 2011 season with 35 catches for 376 yards and two touchdowns. He also had a couple of drops that led to interceptions.

In 2010, he saw action in only seven games because of assorted injuries.

Owusu has been training at the Stanford campus along with Michael Thomas, Coby Fleener, Johnson Bademosi and Griff Whalen. He'll join Fleener, Jonathan Martin, Delano Howell, Andrew Luck and David DeCastro at the NFL combine in Indianapolis later this month.

You can guarantee when he gets there, he's going to have a massive "Fragile" stigma that he's going to have to work off. Owusu has the speed to impress and his return skills make him more marketable. But just because a doctor says his melon isn't busted, doesn't mean that some teams won't be wary about taking a flyer on him. And that could hurt his draft stock.

The few times I spoke with Owusu this year, I really enjoyed them. He was charismatic, funny and always had something good to say about someone else on the team, even when the story was about him. There's something to be said for not letting anything get in the way of following a dream. Here's hoping the doctors -- and Owusu -- are making the right call.

Mel Kiper Jr. discusses how confident he is that Andrew Luck will be picked first in the draft, who could trade up to draft Robert Griffin III, and what the Patriots will do with their picks.

Mel Kiper's weekly Big Board has been updated again , with no change in the top two spots. The Pac-12 owns them both with Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck locked in to the No. 1 spot and USC tackle Matt Kalil holding steady at No. 2

But a third Pac-12 player cracked the top 10 this week with Stanford guard David DeCastro climbing from the No. 12 to the No. 10 spot.

Here's Kiper on DeCastro:

Extremely consistent, plus athletic and powerful in the run game. A rare guard who could get some looks in the first round. In fact, this is as high as we've seen an interior lineman in a while.

Stanford tackle Jonathan Martin and ASU linebacker Vontaze Burfict also appear in Kiper's latest top 25.

As a refresher, here's how Kiper rated the top five players at each position.

Steve Young, Trent Dilfer and Ron Jaworski evaluate Andrew Luck as the projected No. 1 overall pick to the Indianapolis Colts.

It takes a quarterback to know when a quarterback will be missed. So it's no surprise that when looking at the teams with the biggest voids to fill, ESPN's Brock Huard started with schools losing elite quarterbacks. Stanford is among the top five schools that Huard examined as having the biggest offseason holes .

Huard on Stanford:

Stanford might be losing the most prolific quarterback in the program's history in Andrew Luck -- which is saying something, given that John Elway and Jim Plunkett once grazed on The Farm -- but the Cardinal clearly are not losing their ground-and-pound identity. Signing three of the top offensive line prospects in the country will pay dividends in the long term, but filling the enormous shoes of Luck and three other probable first-round picks in this year's draft (OG David DeCastro, OT Jonathan Martin and TE Coby Fleener) will be a mighty task for coach David Shaw.

As a fan, player and now analyst who has been immersed in the Pac-10, now Pac-12, for more than three decades, watching what Jim Harbaugh did to reverse the fortunes of the Stanford program was remarkable. He changed the culture, provided an edge and energy desperately needed on the gridiron, and did so with the help of a once-in-a-generation quarterback who was both brainiac and maniac.

Huard is right on by identifying more than just Luck who is gone. And I'll go a step further and say that losing Delano Howell and Michael Thomas at the safety positions could be just as difficult to overcome. The Cardinal have a lot of good athletes who could step in at the safety spots -- Jordan Richards and Devon Carrington both saw extended action this season. But both are still very raw and lack the experience the outgoing duo possessed.

Having that outstanding front seven should give the secondary a little cover -- at least in the first couple of games -- for the new starters to get acclimated.

I'm also curious -- and sort of excited -- to see who plays the Fleener role in the three-tight-end formations. Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo both bring different skill sets to the position, but neither has the burst of speed that Fleener brought going over the middle on those deep routes. Following the Notre Dame victory, Shaw said that he and his staff have been searching the country for a tight end who can do what Fleener can do. Not surprising, he said they haven't found anyone. I'm expecting Ertz and Toilolo to have very productive seasons -- particularly since they are the veterans of the receiving corps.

Perhaps with the ongoing development of Ty Montgomery and some of the incoming talent at wide receiver, the Cardinal won't have to rely as much on a tight end for a deep-threat option. But knowing Shaw's penchant for tight ends, you have to figure they'll continue to play a major role in the receiving game.

We've seen David Shaw the offensive coordinator; David Shaw the head coach, recruiter and motivator. We've seen the David Shaw who gets perturbed when his strategies are questioned and the David Shaw who is humbled by praise and deflects kudos onto his assistants and players.

But there's one David Shaw we're yet to see: David Shaw the disciplinarian.

While so much of the attention heading into next season's opener against San Jose State was going to focus on who would start at quarterback, now we must also turn our attention to the defensive side of the ball and wonder who will be starting at inside linebacker. And for all the wrong reasons.

If memory serves, there were no players suspended or forced to miss time for violating team rules in the 2011 season. If there were, it wasn't made public and they weren't starters. But Shayne Skov is one of the best linebackers in the country, a poster boy for hard work and probably the most visible player on the 2012 roster. Whatever course of action Shaw takes in dealing with Skov's reported DUI will serve as a precedent for how all other disciplinary actions are taken.

I think it's safe to assume he's not going to dismiss Skov from the team -- as Mike Leach did yesterday with Washington State linebacker C.J. Mizell. Skov has neither the history nor the offense to warrant that severe of a punishment. He's a good teammate, a good student -- and if you work in the media -- a pretty good quote. All in all, he's a good guy who made a beyond-idiotic mistake.

But Shaw can't let this slide with a couple extra laps after practice and a stern talking-to, either. Skov put his life and the lives of others in jeopardy when he decided to knock back x-amount of cocktails and then turn the key.

Shaw hasn't made any comments about the incident other than an official statement issued through the school. But if David Shaw the disciplinarian is anything like the head coach, he'll approach it in the same, cool and even-tempered demeanor in which he approaches most things. But if anyone saw how distressed Shaw was when talking about Skov's injury back in Tucson, or the way he exploded in Pullman following an illegal hit on Chris Owusu, it's clear he loves his players and he's going to have their back. That makes whatever decision to come that much harder.

A suspension is certainly in order. How many games is the question. Clouding the issue is Skov's health. He's still recovering from a knee injury and we won't know if he'll be 100 percent to start the season. If he is fully healthy -- and he's suspended for the San Jose State and Duke games -- that seems fair.

But if he's still a couple of weeks away from being healthy when the season starts -- and he's suspended for both of those games -- is it really a just punishment? Suspending him for games he might have not played in -- or only played a minor role -- seems like doling out discipline with a dust pan rather than an iron fist.

Which brings us to the third game of the season: USC. This is one of the marquee games on Stanford's 2012 schedule and a true measuring stick for the Cardinal in the post-Andrew Luck era. Stanford doesn't need Skov to beat USC. Stanford doesn't need Skov at all -- for that matter. But they are a better team with him.

Whatever punishment Skov is to serve should begin when he's ready to play football. If that's the third game of the season, so be it. Using Skov's injury as a subterfuge for suspension would be letting him off the hook and a disservice to the position Shaw holds.

Shaw is, above all, a Stanford man. Now it's up to him -- David Shaw the disciplinarian -- to back up the ideals he so frequently preaches.

Going to Stanford doesn't prevent you from doing stupid things. So we have Cardinal linebacker Shayne Skov, who was arrested and jailed last weekend for driving under the influence.

The Stanford Daily, which first reported the arrest, said Skov "was transported to the San Jose main jail and booked for driving under the influence at 2 a.m. Sunday." He was pulled over in the parking lot of his dormitory.

It will be interesting to see how Stanford handles this. It seems like a serious but isolated incident. Skov is a good student, NFL prospect and a great team leader. If healthy, he likely would rate as the top returning inside linebacker in the Pac-12.

But he's not irreplaceable. Stanford knows this because it played solid defense even after he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the season's third game at Arizona. Skov is still not 100 percent and is not expected to see much action in spring practice.

Of course, with Skov, the Cardinal's 3-4 defense is much better than without him, even with plenty of depth at the position.

"We have an expected standard of excellence and conduct for our players and Shayne failed to adhere to those standards," Stanford coach David Shaw said in a statement released through a team spokesman. "It's a matter we are taking very seriously. Shayne will be responsible to adhere to any legal responsibilities regarding this event along with ramifications which will be determined by the program."

That means the ice under Skov's cleats is thin. The Cardinal open the 2012 season against San Jose State and then play host to Duke. They won't need Skov to win those games, if Shaw opts to suspend him.

But USC comes a-calling in Week 3. Skov's presence would certainly come in handy against Matt Barkley & Co.

This is what happens. You get good, and then the getting gets good for other teams to come in and start picking off assistant coaches.

Stanford is no exception. It happened last year with the head coach. And another successful season means another round of the coaching carousel.

The fact that co-defensive coordinator Jason Tarver left the Cardinal after just one year to return to the NFL is no real shock. He's one of the brightest defensive minds in football and his star is on the rise. There are only 32 defensive coordinator gigs in the NFL -- and when one of them opens up, you have to take it. If it were a lateral move to another college team, you might scratch your head. But none of that is needed with Tarver. Great move for him and a validation for David Shaw for hiring him in the first place.

So where does this leave the Cardinal -- specifically that monster front seven we've been chatting about since the end of the season? Tarver's is a beautiful mind -- and not just in the football sense. The guy is smart. There probably aren't a lot of other NFL defensive coordinators who have masters degrees in molecular biology and biochemistry from UCLA hanging on their office wall.

What he brought to Stanford was an unbelievable understanding of the 3-4 defense. In the decade prior to his time on The Farm, Tarver learned every strand, strain, wrinkle and wiggle there is to know about the scheme from some of the best defensive minds in the NFL.

At Stanford, he worked directly with the inside linebackers and deserves a ton of credit for the rapid development of Jarek Lancaster and A.J. Tarpley from good prospects to legitimate Pac-12 starters.

Without a doubt, losing Tarver is a blow. But if Stanford is anything, it's resilient. Wasn't the team supposed to lose its swagger once Jim Harbaugh left? Remember how the run defense was shot after Shayne Skov went down? Wasn't recruiting going to decline once Andrew Luck was gone?

From a game-planning perspective, little will change with Tarver's departure. Co-defensive coordinator Derek Mason (who we can only assume is running the show solo until otherwise told), will continue to install the game plan with the direct input from Lance Anderson, Randy Hart and an inside linebackers coach to be named later. (And don't be surprised either to see Mason's name popping up for head-coaching gigs either in the future).

In extensive conversations with Tarver during the season, one of the things he always made clear was that every week it was a collaborative effort, and every week there was something in the defensive game plan from each contributing coach.

Mason is not a micro-manager, and that's why he works so well with Anderson, Hart and Tarver. Now a quarter of that brain trust will be missing, but it will be replaced.

Where the real impact will be felt is teaching technique and installing the front seven's schemes. Tarver was very good at implementing the same blitz or stunt out of several different looks in the front seven -- and then tweaking it each week based on the opponent. As he often said, it allowed the defense to play faster without having to think slower.

Mason, Hart and Anderson are all fantastic coaches in their own right with an unquestioned wealth of knowledge. But none has the next-level experience of 10 years in the The League that Tarver brought -- the last five specifically working with linebackers in an NFL 3-4 scheme.

Because of who remains on staff, Tarver's departure doesn't make or break the Stanford defense. But whoever comes in has some big brains to fill.

Stanford co-defensive coordinator Jason Tarver is headed back to the NFL after one season with the Cardinal. Here's an excerpt from the news story on ESPN.com:

Tarver had spent the previous decade as a 49ers assistant, including the final six seasons (2005-2010) coaching the outside linebackers. After the 49ers hired Jim Harbaugh, Tarver went back to the college ranks to team with co-defensive coordinator Derek Mason at Stanford.

Tarver returns to the NFL with an even more monumental task.

Despite having many high-priced players on that side of the ball, the Raiders struggled mightily on defense last season. Oakland had franchise worsts in touchdown passes allowed (31), yards per carry (5.1), yards passing (4,262) and total yards (6,201) while giving up the third-most points (433) in team history.

For the full story, click here.

John in Phoenix writes: Can you discuss Stanford's QB situation? The recruiting class looks incredible but with Andrew Luck gone, the unknown factor will be the QB position for next year. Will it be Brett Nottingham or one of the other upstarts? Excited about next season, but nervous about the uncertainty at the most important position.

Kevin Gemmell: David Shaw has said that his quarterback competition has already begun, and will likely keep going well into fall camp — and could be up in the air until the week before the season opener. You have to think that Nottingham has some sort of slight lead because of his No. 2 status last season and the fact that he has a little game experience. But there are some very talented quarterbacks who have been waiting to get their shot. Whoever starts, the fact remains that they will be a first-year starter, prone to mental mistakes and "what-was-he-thinking" moments. It's all part of the learning curve — especially in a pro-style offense that relies so heavily on proper calls and reads at the line. I'm not expecting out-of-this-world quarterback play next season. But the guys on the roster are talented enough that I'm also not expecting a horror show under center.

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TJ in San Francisco writes: So, I'm really excited about the recruiting class, but I have to ask — what's with signing so many O-linemen in one year? Not that I'm complaining, but I've never seen or heard of anything like it. Is it just that we didn't expect to get them all or is it part of a plan?

Kevin Gemmell: Shaw talked a little bit about the depth issue in the two-part Q&A I did with him last week. Something else to keep in mind is that really, really good offensive linemen — who also meet Stanford's academic requirements — don't come around too often and in such numbers. Shaw and his staff identified this group more than a year ago, targeted them and have been giving them the hard sell for the last year and change. He and his staff knew that it's a rare occurrence to have this many elite linemen — who are also academically eligible — in one recruiting class. The fact that they were able to nab so many of them is really quite extraordinary.

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Paul in Stanford, Calif. writes: This 2012 haul is pretty impressive for the Cardinal. Who do you expect to make an appearance next fall? Do you think this O-Line will make it easier to grab a star QB next year?

Kevin Gemmell: A coach I used to cover once said that "the further you are from the center, the better chance you have to play as a freshman." Meaning, offensive linemen and quarterbacks usually aren't ready to play as true freshman while wide receivers and running backs usually are. I don't think that's the case with this class. I think it's very possible that we could see a couple of the linemen step in and compete for playing time right away. When I talked with Shaw about the class, he seemed very excited about some of the wide receiver prospects — Conner Crane, Kodi Whitfield, Dontonio Jordan and Michael Rector. I think Noor Davis might get some time at linebacker and wouldn't be surprised to see Alex Carter break his way into the rotation at cornerback.

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Fleecemonkey writes: Is David Shaw a better recruiter than Jim Harbaugh? And how good will Stanford's running game be the next couple of years? Very good? Great? Elite?

Kevin Gemmell: His classes certainly rank higher than Harbaugh's, so if that is your measuring stick, then the answer is yes. But Harbaugh certainly gets a great deal of credit for finding the guys who didn't receive high marks and turning them into fantastic football players. Shaw closed on a lot of great prospects this year. But that's all they are at this point — prospects. The real measuring stick is what he does with them once he gets them in a Stanford uniform.