ESPN College Football

Lots of mailbag to catch up on. Will try to squeeze out a few more later in the week. For now, to the questions.

Eric in San Francisco writes: You mentioned that it remains to be seen if the three-tight-end plan can continue. It seems that if there was a "next up" young tight end that was sharp enough, then we might be able to hang on to some of those great plays in the playbook. Who is "next up" in the tight end position, and could they be good enough to preserve that 3 TE plan?

Kevin Gemmell: I don't think it's as much the actual playbook as it is the players -- specifically what Coby Fleener was able to do in the offense and the way he could exploit almost every defender who tried to cover him. Stanford has other tight ends -- but no one who is 6-foot-6, 250 pounds and out-run cornerbacks and out-jump safeties. Levine Toilolo and Zach Ertz will continue to bring what they bring -- phenomenal athleticism for their size -- but neither is as fast as Fleener. And to their credit, I think Ertz has better hands than Fleener and I think Toilolo was a better blocker. That's what made the three of them so great. No one on the roster has Fleener's rare combination of size and speed. I do think we'll see some special packages with Ryan Hewitt as a third tight end and Geoff Meinken at fullback. And we have to see if David Dudchock steps up. I don't think the scheme is going to change -- but without Fleener splitting the middle on the deep go route, it's not going to look as pretty.

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Scott in Redwood City, Calif., writes: No, I haven't been predicting a national championship for the 2012 Card. However, I do think they'll be darn good, maybe even great. And then I heard it mentioned somewhere that Tennessee - in its first season without Peyton Manning - won the national title in 1998. So, would you care to get me all goofy and tell me how many other parallels there are between the '98 Vols and '12 Card?

Kevin Gemmell: Well, hmmm. Tennessee started the year ranked No. 10 in the AP poll. I'd imagine Stanford will be anywhere between 10-15. Both teams are/were pro-style offenses. Tennessee faced the No. 2 team in the country in Week 2. Stanford might face the No. 2 team in the country in Week 3. Uhm, let's see... both schools have well-regarded women's basketball programs ... "S" and "T" are consecutive letters in the alphabet ... I don't know. I got nothing else ... have fun with that one, though.

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John in Phoenix writes: All things being equal, wouldn't it make more sense to give Brett Nottingham the nod to be the starter over Josh Nunes given he has another year of eligibility?

Kevin Gemmell: In my experience, all things being equal rarely happens. One of the two will step up (or slip up) in the fall and someone will emerge as the starter. I'm just not sure which one. I've heard good things (and bad) about both from people in the know. My best guess though, is that whoever wins it will be keeping it warm for Ryan Burns. If they approach Burns the way they did Andrew Luck, he'll sit out his first year, which means he won't take the helm until 2014. Eligibility won't matter by that point. If you're Stanford, you want to win now and continue to capitalize on the momentum of back-to-back BCS appearances and a monster recruiting class. If that means swapping quarterbacks in consecutive years, so be it. Do what you can to win now and keep the ball rolling.

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Alan in Palo Alto writes: Any plans to retire Luck's number?

Kevin Gemmell: None that I've heard, but you have to imagine it's coming -- and the sooner the better. From here on out, there should only be one No. 12 in the minds of Stanford fans.

2011 record: 11-2
2011 conference record: 8-1 (2nd, North)
Returning starters: Offense: 6; defense: 7; kicker/punter 1

Top returners
RB Stepfan Taylor, OLB Chase Thomas, LB Shayne Skov, FB Ryan Hewitt, C Sam Schwartzstein, OG David Yankey, OT Cameron Fleming, DE Ben Gardner, TE Zach Ertz, TE Levine Toilolo.

Key losses
QB Andrew Luck, OL David DeCastro, OL Jonathan Martin, S Delano Howell, DE Matt Masifilo, WR Chris Owusu, TE Coby Fleener, S Michael Thomas.

2011 statistical leaders* (returners)
Rushing: Stepfan Taylor* (1,330 yards)
Passing: Andrew Luck (3,517 yards)
Receiving: Griff Whalen (749 yards)
Tackles: Jarek Lancaster* (70)
Sacks: Chase Thomas* (8.5)
Interceptions: Michael Thomas (3)

Spring answers
1. And then there were two: The pack of five has been funneled down to two quarterbacks competing to replace Andrew Luck, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft. There are plenty of questions left (see below) but at least we know that it's not a three-, four- or five-man race heading into spring. Brett Nottingham and Josh Nunes clearly separated themselves from the rest of the pack. That's a start.

2. Running back depth: In case Stepfan Taylor gets the flu, and Tyler Gaffney trips over his batting gloves, and Anthony Wilkerson stubs his toe, we know the Cardinal still have a viable running back option in Ricky Seale, who impressed Shaw this spring with his vision, quickness and elusiveness. Oh yeah, there's a Barry something or other coming in the fall whose supposed to be a pretty good running back. RB depth is not a concern.

3. Scary front seven: The Cardinal have so much talent and depth at defensive line and linebacker that defensive coordinator Derek Mason has to be scratching his head on how to get everybody in. Linebacker James Vaugthers is a star on the rise -- but that means taking reps away from A.J. Tarpley and Jarek Lancaster. Chase Thomas and Trent Murphy are two of the best at what they do. Stanford's run defense was really good last year. It could be great this year.

Fall questions
1. Who's the guy? Nunes or Nottingham? Nottingham or Nunes? That's the question everyone will be asking on the Farm for the next few months. This might be the most intriguing quarterback competition in the country. But the Cardinal don't need a 50-attempt guy. They need someone who can put them in the best play against the right defense and hand off to Stepfan Taylor. Then repeat. Repeat. Repeat. And then pop a play-action to Ty Montgomery, Zach Ertz or Levine Toilolo.

2. The Fleener factor: Much of Stanford's offensive success came from the three-tight-end formations, which included Coby Fleener, Ertz and Toilolo. In fact, about 35 percent of the offensive playbook is triple-tight sets. How much does that change with Fleener's departure to the NFL? Ertz and Toilolo are both outstanding tight ends in their own right. But the three of them together was something special.

3. Drop-off? Aren't you tired of reading about the drop-off Stanford is going to suffer with the graduation of Luck? Well, so are the players. Several have said off the record that it's a great motivational tool because they believe the defense and running game are stronger than they've ever been. Whatever the public thinks, it hasn't penetrated the locker room. Not yet, anyway.

Stanford head coach David Shaw pulled the curtain back ever so slightly on his quarterback competition, revealing not what he's looking for, but what he's not looking for in Andrew Luck's successor.

"They know the quickest way for those guys to lose the competition is to try to be Andrew," Shaw said. "That will lose someone the competition."

This has been a different spring for Shaw, who took over following Jim Harbaugh's exodus to the NFL and had the best quarterback in nation already in place. Shaw had helped develop Luck as Harbaugh's offensive coordinator, and knew there wasn't much tweaking required. This year's crop presents a fun, albeit different, challenge for the former NFL quarterbacks coach.

"There were a couple of times where I had to grab them and get my hands on them," Shaw said. "Some of those young guys are like clay and you get a chance to mold them. It was fun. It was enjoyable.

"The only thing that would be more enjoyable [will be] when someone takes the job and we plant them in there and give them a chance to play. It was completely different. It was different working with a battle for the back-up quarterback job to the best quarterback in the nation as opposed to battling for the starting job."

Still, no matter whether it's Brett Nottingham or Josh Nunes who emerges as Stanford's starting quarterback, there are going to be expectations to maintain the success Stanford has enjoyed the past few years.

"I'm not going to lie, there is still an Andrew Luck hangover going on down here in Palo Alto," Shaw said. "But we have some athletic, smart, accurate quarterbacks that understand what we do. ... Their job is to be efficient. Their job is to hand the ball to Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson. To find Levine Toilolo and Zach Ertz and give Ty Montgomery a chance to play.

"As we always talk about, the quarterback's job here is to deal the cards. Get it to the playmakers. Make sure the offense runs efficiently. And the guy that does that the best will be the guy that starts."

In other Stanford news:

Linebacker Shayne Skov is on schedule with his rehabilitation from a season-ending knee injury suffered in Week 3 last season against Arizona. Shaw said he expects Skov to be ready by the start of fall camp, but they will keep a close eye on him. Some are already predicting Skov as a first-round pick in next year's NFL draft.

"We'll be very smart with him, getting into the more physical practices, just to make sure," Shaw said. "Shayne doesn't have to prove to me that he can play the game of football; Shayne has to prove to me that he's healthy. We're not going to put him in those potentially damaging situations until we know he's 100 percent ready to go. So early in training camp we'll take care of him. We'll watch him the first couple of days of pads. If there are no setbacks, we'll release him for complete, full-go activity. I expect him to play up to the level of his ability."

Three consecutive Heisman Trophy runners-up, two consecutive BCS bowl games and final top-10 rankings: Hey, Stanford's special run of football success was fun to watch. It was neat seeing the most academically elite university playing BCS football whipping the big boys.

But we all know it can't possibly last, right? Jim Harbaugh built it and he's gone. Andrew Luck was a once-in-a-generation quarterback, and he's gone. And he took with him three other offensive players among the first 42 selections in the NFL draft over the weekend.

While the Cardinal certainly had more than 15 minutes of fame, it's time for this program to go back to its familiar brainiac territory -- Faulkner, computer chips and advanced algorithms. Leave big-time football the USCs, Alabamas and Ohio States of the nation.

Yes, such talk has worked its way across the grid, onto the Farm and into the Stanford locker room.

"We've talked about that," coach David Shaw said. "But we've also talked about that there can't be anything outside of our meeting rooms that motivates us. The motivation has to come from within. It's the only way that it is real. The only way that it is legitimate. But we've heard it. We know where we're ranked. But preseason rankings don't matter. Postseason rankings do."

In other words, the Cardinal believe reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

"They said the same thing when Toby [Gerhart] left and when Harbaugh left," outside linebacker Chase Thomas said. "We're pretty confident. We know what we bring to the table."

Of course, things change. No team can easily replace four elite NFL draft picks from its offense. That's why Stanford may be more about defense in the early going of 2012. Thomas leads a crew of six returning starters from a unit that ranked among the nation's top 30 in both scoring and total defense. The Cardinal's front seven in their 3-4 scheme appears to be particularly strong. Few teams in the nation will be as deep at linebacker, with Thomas and inside linebacker Shayne Skov both rating as potential All-Americans.

But what about that offense? The competition to replace Luck wasn't resolved this spring, with neither Josh Nunes nor Brett Nottingham demonstrating much consistency. And whoever wins the job won't have tackle Jonathan Martin protecting his blind side, or guard David DeCastro grinding defensive linemen into hamburger, or tight end Coby Fleener sprinting open down the middle with his 6-foot-6 self.

"We will continue our commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage," coordinator Pep Hamilton said. "We're going to run power. I don't see us changing much. If anything, if we have a few more opportunities to run power, we'll do that."

That means leaning on running back Stepfan Taylor, who has rushed for 2,770 yards and 27 TDs over the previous three seasons, and a deep stable of backs. That means leaning on a tight end combination -- Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo -- that is as good as any in the nation, even without Fleener.

Receiver and offensive line? Those two spots remain questions, though the line will welcome back three starters.

Existing talent, however, doesn't tell the whole story of Stanford's potential for sustaining success. The incoming recruiting class is a significant chapter. Rivals ranked it fifth in the nation, Scout seventh and ESPN Recruiting 12th. No team in the nation came close to collecting as many elite offensive linemen: guard Joshua Garnett (Puyallup, Wash./Puyallup), Andrus Peat (Tempe, Ariz./Corona Del Sol) and offensive tackle Kyle Murphy (San Clemente, Calif./San Clemente).

Shaw isn't afraid to play the young guys, either. True freshmen will get opportunities on both sides of the ball, including the offensive line.

"There's a reason why we recruited a couple of big-timers at those positions," he said. "They will have an opportunity to play if not start at the left tackle position."

Instead of going away, Stanford may well have found a perfect formula that Harbaugh generated and Shaw has refined. Stanford has a lot to sell a certain type of athlete, one who is equal parts brains and brawn. Despite what many folks think about young athletes, there are plenty who want to challenge themselves intellectually before playing football on Sundays.

"This is a special place that attracts a certain kind of person," said Shaw, a former Stanford player himself. "The GPAs in this recruiting class are high, even positions where they are not always high. Our lowest receiver GPA is a 3.4. Not regular GPA, core GPA. These guys are good students and tough kids."

But how fast are they? A 3.4 is nice, but what about 4.4? The one thing that has held Stanford back is a lack of elite speed all over the field, particularly in the secondary and at receiver. Shaw said they "are getting closer" in terms of speed, but he also admitted that the Cardinal -- just like every other Pac-12 program -- have a bit of an Oregon problem. They are 23-1 versus everyone else over the past two seasons, outscoring those foes 1,024-405. Against the Ducks, Stanford is 0-2, outscored 105-61.

Does Stanford have an "Oregon problem?"

"That's a great question," Shaw said. "I'd like to have a survey on your website if anybody has some ideas. Chip [Kelly] does a phenomenal job."

While Shaw is said this in a good-humored way, it's clear that he and his coaches have spent plenty of time thinking about the Ducks. They recall beating them 51-42 in 2009, particularly how they handled the ebbs and flows of momentum. They know it's about preventing big plays and not wasting opportunities on offense. They know it's about tempo, a pitched battle of contrasting styles. Oregon wants to play fast and slash you. Stanford wants to slow things down and pound you.

At least one insider believes Stanford will sustain its recent run of success.

"Absolutely. Hopefully they do better than we did," Luck said. "I think there are a lot of great players here, starting at the top with the coaching staff. Great players, great recruiting classes. They will only continue to get better."

As for what Stanford will be in 2012, its first season of the post-Luck era, Shaw thinks his team will have the same tough-guy persona. But it'll be angrier.

"We're going to go right at people and hit them in the mouth," he said. "And it helps to feel like you're disrespected."

David Shaw has said many times that he was spoiled having Andrew Luck at quarterback. Now that Luck is gone, the Stanford head coach is getting back to his roots as a quarterbacks coach -- a position he held with two NFL teams.

Part of that means scaling back the playbook. With Luck, he could let his offensive imagination run wild. Now with a couple of quarterbacks with a total of zero college starts between them competing for the job, it's more about getting back to basics.

"It's really not frustrating, it's just coming back to reality," Shaw said, followed by a big laugh. "That's where I've been most of my career. That's where [offensive coordinator] Pep Hamilton has been for most of his career.

"I received a nice little shot from Lane Kiffin saying that his quarterback checks plays also -- which is great. That's what most good quarterbacks do. We just had a guy that was on a different level. Now we're just back to what is really the standard for college football. You have to have your quarterback get you out of bad plays and into good plays, which is what we're back to."

Shaw said he won't really know the identity of his offense until he settles the quarterback question -- and also plugs the hole at left tackle vacated by Jonathan Martin.

"At some point, we'll settle on a quarterback," Shaw said. "At some point, we'll settle on left tackle. It's hard to completely say who you are and what you're going to do until those places are settled."

In other post-spring news:

• Shaw said he's pleased with the progress of Kevin Danser and Khalil Wilkes at the right guard position -- though he wasn't ready to name a starter. When tackle Brendon Austin missed time, David Yankey moved from guard to left tackle and Danser and Wilkes played both guard spots.

"If nobody on campus takes that left tackle job or if one of the two younger guys [Andrus Peat and Kyle Murphy] isn't ready, we could kick Yankey out there and be solid at both guard spots as we groom those young tackles."

• Just how deep is Stanford at linebacker? Well, Shaw was running off a list of names; Chase Thomas, James Vaughters, Shayne Skov, A.J. Tarpley, Kevin Anderson, Alex Debniak, Trent Murphy, Joe Hemschoot. Forgetting someone?

"What about Jarek Lancaster, coach?"

"Oh yeah, Jarek is playing great."

"OK, I didn't hear his name so I wanted to make sure he didn't transfer to Oregon or anything."

"No no. Please don't wish that upon me."

The moral of the anecdote is that Stanford is so deep at linebacker that Shaw forgot to mention the guy who led the Cardinal in tackles last season.

• Shaw also sang the praises of running back Ricky Seale, who had an outstanding spring session.

"We just played a spring game without our top three running backs and we found out that our fourth running back is good enough to start at a lot of places," Shaw said.

• With tight end Coby Fleener headed to the NFL, the Cardinal lose one-third of the Tree Amigos -- the vaunted tight end trio of Fleener, Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo. Does that mean the Cardinal will move more toward the wide receivers being the primary receiving option?

"I personally don't really care about one group getting the ball over another," Shaw said. "I tell these guys all the time that I don't care who actually plays. It's whoever shows they can consistently make plays. We could easily become a three-or-four wide receiver team if that's the best group of guys and the most consistent and making big plays. Or we could be a two-tight-end team. Or a one tight end team. The offense will be whatever the personnel allows us to be."

Bob in Omaha writes: [David] Shaw said that the QB competition is open -- but sometimes that's just how coaches talk. You've got to think Brett Nottingham has the lead. How surprised would you be if Nottingham didn't win the job?

Kevin Gemmell: I can't say I'd be too blown away if one of the other guys wins the job. It's not like it's Nottingham and four scrubs who are there to fill out a jersey. These were all legitimate, highly respected high school quarterbacks. Remember, Nottingham was the No. 4 quarterback coming out of spring ball last year and once Josh Nunes got hurt, he beat out Robbie Picazo for the backup job. Shaw speaks highly of Kevin Hogan. I saw Evan Crower play in high school. Kid's good. So no, it wouldn't be totally surprising if someone else wins out. With that said, yes, you have to believe that Nottingham has at least a tiny edge -- not just because he was the backup quarterback last year -- but because he held on to the backup role all season. No doubt, he was pressed by other guys during the course of the year. How much? I honestly can't say because practices were closed, and we don't know how much Nunes' foot injury lingered during the year. But just because you win a job in August doesn't mean you're guaranteed to still have it in November. The fact that Nottingham did is a piece of the puzzle that I think often gets overlooked.

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Eric in Bangkok writes: Are we likely to see more three-tight-end stuff in Stanford's future? Or was that a temporary response to a specific context?

Kevin Gemmell: As long as Shaw is the head coach and Pep Hamilton is the offensive coordinator -- I can assure you the three-tight-end package doesn't leave with Coby Fleener. Now, will they run it as frequently as they did last season? Probably not. You adjust the scheme to fit the talents of your team. And when you have a Fleener-type player, you find ways to let him stretch the field. Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo are great tight ends. But Fleener did some things better than them -- just as they do some things better than Fleener. We saw Ryan Hewitt step up and play more tight end when Ertz went down. Wouldn't be surprised if there are a few packages in place next season with him as the third tight end and Geoff Meinken at fullback. Without Fleener, however, I think you have to start getting the wide receivers more involved in the passing game. Stanford was able to rely on the tight ends because of what that trio could do on the field at the same time. With the dynamics shifting, I think it has to be a priority for the wide receivers to take a more prominent role in the passing attack.

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Tom in Menlo Park, Calif., writes: Hey Kevin, I've seen it mentioned numerous times with respect to Jonathan Martin & David DeCastro's draft prospects that OGs like DeCastro do not typically go in the first round (making it all the more impressive that DeCastro is projected to) whereas it is common for OTs. Can you discuss a bit about the reasons for the greater demand for tackles in terms of NFL team needs and the different skill sets for the two positions?

Kevin Gemmell: As in most things, demand is dictated by supply -- and good offensive tackles are in rarer supply than guards -- especially in the NFL. Once you get to the pro game, the best defensive linemen are typically the faster, more athletic guys on the outside. So you have to have your best athletes on the outside to hold them off. This requires a different type of player -- including physical frame. Guards like DeCastro have to be more explosive for pulling. DeCastro is a born run-blocker. Martin is better in pass protection. That's his physical makeup. Consider their combine measurables. Both checked in at 6-foot-5 -- DeCastro at 316 pounds and Martin at 312. But Martin has almost an inch and a half on DeCastro in reach. He's a longer player, and that's the physical makeup needed for tackles. Guys like Martin and USC's Matt Kalil are immovable objects -- and that's what's needed in the NFL. Plus, it's always easier to give help in a blocking scheme to the inside than it is the outside. You have fullbacks and running backs that can offer assistance on blitzes and centers can double-team on the inside. I'm not saying that guards are inferior players to tackles. Because they aren't. They just have a different frame and skill set required for the position. You hear cornerbacks use the expression "being out on an island." A lot of times it's the same for tackles -- who are out on the island one-on-one against the best pass-rushers. You're more likely to see college tackles move over to guard than vice versa. There are always exceptions, but that's the conventional thinking.

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John in Phoenix writes: I attended the same high school as Anthony Wilkerson, so I'd really like to see him do well. I thought he showed signs of brilliance last year in his limited playing time. He looks explosive and powerful and wondered why he didn't get more carries. What do you think his role will be next year with the return of [Tyler] Gaffney and [Stepfan] Taylor, and now with the addition of [Barry] Sanders?

Kevin Gemmell: I think the biggest issue with Wilkerson last season was that he just never really got enough carries in a game to get into a rhythm. He'd have a lot of 1-yard, 2-yard runs in one game and then bust out a 38-yard run the next game. He started as the first guy off the bench to spell Taylor, but Gaffney moved up the food chain -- and a lot of that had to do with the wildcat package. Again, we're not at practices so we can't really judge what's going on behind the scenes. But the coaching staff saw a reason to give more carries to Gaffney. As for next year, it's just a matter of making the most of his opportunities. Shaw has shown he likes to play freshmen running backs, so if Sanders does play, it's going to cut into Wilkersons' carries even more. Taylor, who accounted for almost 50 percent of the carries last year, is going to be the workhorse again. Wilkerson needs to find his niche. For Gaffney, it started as the wildcat guy and grew into a more prominent role. Jeremy Stewart was the short-yardage guy. As long as Wilkerson is tagged as that change-of-pace guy, he's probably not going to see those 10-15 carries each week that would allow him to get into the flow of a game.

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Sam in New York writes: Are any of Stanford's incoming recruits enrolled early? Been looking around all over the web but haven't found anything. Interested to know if anyone from this talented class will be playing spring ball.

Kevin Gemmell: Shaw actually isn't a big fan of the early-admission process. Back in December, he talked about a study he and Jim Harbaugh did and they found that high school players entering early really had no significant advantage -- and were in fact more likely to get injured. He'd rather they take the extra six months -- enjoy the high school experience, play a winter or spring sport, and then get on the Stanford training regimen in the summer.

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Peter in Nor Cal writes: Hey Kevin, would you take a crack at predicting the state of affairs for Stanford Football 3, 5, and 10 years down the line? What will our record be, who will be coaching, what (if any) bowl will we be in, etc. Thanks for all the reporting on Stanford.

Kevin Gemmell: Boy, where's Carnac the Magnificent when you need him (everyone under the age of 30, start Googling). OK, let's see. Well, three years down the line I'd expect the Cardinal will be looking for another outstanding offensive line class because the bulk of this year's group will be heading to the draft. I'd be shocked if Pep Hamilton and Derek Mason haven't gotten head coaching gigs somewhere in three to five years. I'd imagine Shaw is still the head coach in five years. The lure to return to the NFL might tempt him five years from now -- especially if he's offered an offensive coordinator or head-coaching job. But unless he has back-to-back 0-12 seasons and a heap of NCAA violations, I don't see him ever getting fired. He's an alumnus, he loves the school and the program and if he's still head coach in 2022, I wouldn't be all that surprised. As for records -- well, with this recruiting momentum, I don't see any sub-.500 seasons on the horizon for the next five years. But after that, who knows? One off recruiting class can set a program back half a decade. I think this is a good staff with good recruiters. I see no reason why they don't keep the momentum they've established rolling along. As for future bowl games -- if they can crack a BCS game within five years of the post-Andrew Luck era, I'd say Shaw has done a heck of a job. This year's offensive-line class is going to pay off in recruiting quarterbacks for the next couple of years, so you can expect some of the top QBs -- who also meet the Cardinal academic standards -- will give Stanford a good, long look.

With the Cardinal kicking off spring ball next week, there will obviously be a lot of focus and attention on position battles. Who will be the quarterback? Who will step up on the offensive line? What about the safeties?

Chances are, most or none of those questions will be answered by the time spring turns to summer. In fact, we might not have some of those answers until kickoff against San Jose State. So rather than speculating, let's take a look at 10 players on the current roster who will be vital to Stanford's success next season. (Trust me, trimming the list to 10 was tough).

• No. 10, Jordan Williamson, K: What we need to know is if his head is right following the debacle in the desert. No need to re-hash the gory details. We all know how his teammates rallied around him. If he's fully healthy in his leg -- and his mind -- he will be critical to Stanford's success since they are likely to play some closer games next season.
• No. 9, Trent Murphy, OLB: The other outside linebacker. Chase Thomas is going to draw double-teams, trap blocks and all sorts of creative crack-backs to keep him out of the opponent's backfield. That means Murphy -- who quietly had a very good 2011 with 40 tackles and 6.5 sacks -- should get more one-on-one attention.
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  Jason O. Watson/US PRESSWIREStanford running back Stepfan Taylor will be vital to the success of Stanford next season.
  No. 8, Ty Montgomery, WR: Coming off a fantastic freshman campaign, the pressure is on to see if he can 1) produce over the course of an entire season; 2) produce without Andrew Luck throwing him the ball. There is a lot of inexperience at wide receiver and incoming freshmen that will press him. He can be a stabilizing factor for whoever gets Luck's old gig.
• No. 7, Terrence Stephens, NT: Under-appreciated for the role he plays on the defensive line, Stephens does the dirty work that lets the linebackers claim all of the glory. He's also a vocal, emotional leader that the defense is going to need with the oft-quoted Michael Thomas graduated and pursuing a professional career.
• No. 6/No. 6A, Zach Ertz & Levine Toilolo, TEs: (Yes, I'm cheating a bit with two players) Both were security blankets for Luck on third down, dangerous red zone targets and much improved blockers. They'll have to be all of that and more. A new quarterback is likely to check down more often than not, which means the remaining dos Amigos could have big years.
• No. 5, Wayne Lyons, DB: Coming off a foot injury, Lyons should quickly play his way back into the cornerback rotation -- if not win a starting job outright. He entered with a ton of hype as a true freshman and even though he missed the majority of the season, expectations shouldn't be tempered if this dynamic defender can stay healthy.
• No. 4, Chase Thomas, OLB: He's the No. 1-rated senior outside linebacker in the country and a terror to quarterbacks and running backs. The next step for him is to do more of the same -- but do it quicker and more consistently. Knowing his work ethic, that shouldn't be a problem. Thomas should have a monster year if he stays healthy and his decision to return should be rewarded with a nice bump in his draft status.
• No. 3, Sam Schwartzstein, C: David Yankey and Cameron Fleming should continue to improve upon very good first years starting. But Schwartzstein is the guy who makes the line go. He's a tireless worker -- both at the physical and mental aspects of the game -- and should provide a calming presence to whoever takes the snaps from him. He's not a vocal leader -- but neither was David DeCastro. Guys follow guts and brains and Schwartzstein has both.
• No. 2, Ryan Hewitt, FB: Another player whose efforts often go overlooked. He'll likely see his short-yardage carries increase with the graduation of Jeremy Stewart and as a blocking back -- he's one of the best in the country. He's versatile enough to play tight end (the three-tight-end-sets didn't leave with Coby Fleener) and you have to love a guy that loves contact.
• No. 1, Stepfan Taylor, RB: The workhorse. Taylor will be the catalyst for Stanford's offense next year. He'll get plenty of reps while the new quarterback develops and should get better reps as the new guy matures. He's the best blocker of the running backs and when he does go out for passes, he's sure-handed and shifty in the open field. He does everything. And in a time of transition, those kind of guys are simply invaluable.

It takes a quarterback to know when a quarterback will be missed. So it's no surprise that when looking at the teams with the biggest voids to fill, ESPN's Brock Huard started with schools losing elite quarterbacks. Stanford is among the top five schools that Huard examined as having the biggest offseason holes .

Huard on Stanford:

Stanford might be losing the most prolific quarterback in the program's history in Andrew Luck -- which is saying something, given that John Elway and Jim Plunkett once grazed on The Farm -- but the Cardinal clearly are not losing their ground-and-pound identity. Signing three of the top offensive line prospects in the country will pay dividends in the long term, but filling the enormous shoes of Luck and three other probable first-round picks in this year's draft (OG David DeCastro, OT Jonathan Martin and TE Coby Fleener) will be a mighty task for coach David Shaw.

As a fan, player and now analyst who has been immersed in the Pac-10, now Pac-12, for more than three decades, watching what Jim Harbaugh did to reverse the fortunes of the Stanford program was remarkable. He changed the culture, provided an edge and energy desperately needed on the gridiron, and did so with the help of a once-in-a-generation quarterback who was both brainiac and maniac.

Huard is right on by identifying more than just Luck who is gone. And I'll go a step further and say that losing Delano Howell and Michael Thomas at the safety positions could be just as difficult to overcome. The Cardinal have a lot of good athletes who could step in at the safety spots -- Jordan Richards and Devon Carrington both saw extended action this season. But both are still very raw and lack the experience the outgoing duo possessed.

Having that outstanding front seven should give the secondary a little cover -- at least in the first couple of games -- for the new starters to get acclimated.

I'm also curious -- and sort of excited -- to see who plays the Fleener role in the three-tight-end formations. Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo both bring different skill sets to the position, but neither has the burst of speed that Fleener brought going over the middle on those deep routes. Following the Notre Dame victory, Shaw said that he and his staff have been searching the country for a tight end who can do what Fleener can do. Not surprising, he said they haven't found anyone. I'm expecting Ertz and Toilolo to have very productive seasons -- particularly since they are the veterans of the receiving corps.

Perhaps with the ongoing development of Ty Montgomery and some of the incoming talent at wide receiver, the Cardinal won't have to rely as much on a tight end for a deep-threat option. But knowing Shaw's penchant for tight ends, you have to figure they'll continue to play a major role in the receiving game.

Last week we saw in an analysis by ESPN The Magazine and RecruitingNation that Stanford was the best school in the nation at getting the most production from out-of-state recruiting.

Well, there's a flipside to that coin.

As good as Stanford has been looking outside of the Golden State, it hasn't been too productive at landing California's finest. A similar analysis shows Stanford is the third-worst program at getting ESPNU 150 athletes from its own state.

From 2007 to 2011, Stanford landed just 2-of-73 ESPNU 150 athletes from California -- Anthony Wilkerson out of Tustin in 2010 and Josh Nunes from Upland in 2009.

Here's what LaRue Cook says about Stanford:

We gave Stanford props for its ability to go out of state to sign top prospects, but there's no ignoring the program's inability to create an elite pipeline in its state. (Meanwhile, UCLA has signed 12 in-state ESPNU 150 recruits over the last five years.) Sure, Cardinal fans can blame their program's struggles on academic constraints, but out of 73 players, surely more than two could qualify. In 2012, David Shaw doesn't have a single ESPNU 150 commit from California -- USC currently has four and UCLA has two -- but No. 4 OT Kyle Murphy (San Clemente) still has Stanford on his short list.

To which I say, so what? The analysis deals only with ESPNU 150 athletes. And I think we all know that whatever scouting service you trust, it isn't always bullet proof. Two-star players have gone on to greatness and five-stars have fizzled.

I say, consider some of the Stanford players who came out of California during that stretch who weren't ESPNU 150 prospects: Jonathan Martin (North Hollywood), Tyler Gaffney (San Diego), Levine Toilolo (San Diego), Zach Ertz (Danville), Delano Howell (Newhall). All remarkably productive and one who is expected to be drafted in the first round.

This type of analysis makes for great message board fodder, but read more into the results than projections -- and I think the Stanford coaching staff would agree. If you're looking strictly at the ranking numbers, then yes, Stanford hasn't been particularly successful as, say, USC, which has scored 33 ESPNU 150 recruits from California during that time span. By the way, what's Stanford's record against USC the last three years?

Stanford is a unique program that has to be examined with a different standard of criteria. The product on the field is what matters. The results are still out on Wilkerson since Stepfan Taylor has been carrying the load. And with Barry Sanders coming in, we might never know if Wilkerson could be a carry-the-load kind of running back.

It's an open quarterback competition next year, so we'll see who emerges and where Nunes lands.

This year's current crop of commits features just one player from California -- wide receiver Kodi Whitfield. So what? It also has four ESPNU 150 commits with the possibility of more.

The morale of the story: It shouldn't matter if they come from Los Angeles or Plymouth, Minn. (shout out to A.J. Tarpley), if they can play, they can play.

Like most regular readers of this blog, I live in California and was raised on Bay Area football and spent the early portions of my career covering Southern California high schools. There are only so many 6-4, 225-pound wide receivers that run 4.4 40s and only so many four- and-five stars that can be handed out. California is fertile ground, and fair game, for every school in the country.

My take: Stanford is doing just fine in California, and Texas, and Georgia and Arizona, and everywhere else they can find the athletes that fit the academic requirements, character and culture needed to be a football player at Stanford.

With one game left to play we're taking a look back at some of the memorable moments/series of moments from Stanford's 2011 season. Some were individual plays, others were a series of plays or games as a whole that were significant to the season.

We're down to No. 1. The envelope please ...

No. 1: THE DRIVE AND BEYOND

Setting the scene: A pick-six. Devastating. With the Cardinal and USC locked in a 27-27 tie with 3:45 left in the game, Andrew Luck appeared poised to drive his team down the field on a game-winning drive. But Nickell Robey had other plans when he intercepted Luck on a third-and-3 at the Stanford 33 and returned it for a touchdown.

A loss would have meant the end of Stanford's winning streak and -- at the time -- its contention for the national championship. But that's not how it went down. What happened in the next 3:03 and ensuing three overtimes is the stuff that will forever make Luck a Stanford legend.

Why it's memorable: Luck went up and down the Stanford sideline and assured everyone that the game wasn't over. He completed 4 of 6 passes and rushed for 16 yards on the eventual game-tying drive that knotted the score at 34-34, ending with a 2-yard Stepfan Taylor run.

In overtime, Luck was 3-for-3 for 27 yards and a touchdown, he rushed for 13 yards and completed a 2-point conversion to Coby Fleener.

Luck was remarkably cool after throwing the interception. A lot of quarterbacks would have crumbled under the weight of their own mistake. But Luck didn't. He didn't get overly excited when the Cardinal took the lead in the first overtime, and he didn't get overly down when they fell behind in the second overtime. He was cool and relaxed and his teammates fed off of that.

On his 11-yard touchdown pass to Levine Toilolo, he placed it on the outside shoulder -- almost out of bounds -- where only his long, 6-foot-8 tight end could get it.

And on the 2-point conversion, he looked off all of the defenders to his right and then placed a perfect pass to his left to Fleener.

In one of the most thrilling games in Stanford history -- an eventual 56-48 triple-overtime victory -- Luck secured his Stanford legacy with grace and composure.

A healthy Stanford is a happy Stanford. And for the first time since about the midway point of the regular season, the Cardinal are as close to 100 percent as they are going to be.

When Stanford takes on Oklahoma State in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 2, several key players will be moving quicker than they were in the final few games of the regular season. Understanding just how beat up his team was heading into the postseason, head coach David Shaw said repairs on both sides of the ball were a top priority.

"We've got to get healthy," Shaw said after the Notre Dame victory in the regular season finale. "We played with our three tight ends and two of them were probably 80 percent. Our backs have been beaten up and bruised all year. We have to get them fresh."

Injuries, no doubt, took their toll on the Cardinal this year. It all started in the third game of the season when middle linebacker Shayne Skov -- arguably one of the top run stoppers in the country -- went down against Arizona and was lost for the year with a knee injury. Suddenly one of the best run defenses in the country looked a little thin. A.J. Tarpley and Jarek Lancaster filled in admirably -- better, in fact, than most expected -- but neither is at the level yet of Skov.

Still, they have endured, ranking fifth nationally in rush defense, allowing just 90.3 yards per game.

Like all teams, the Cardinal fell prey to the typical bumps and bruises. But a critical bump occurred against USC, when tight end Zach Ertz suffered a knee injury on the opening kickoff and would go on to miss the next three games.

Why is Ertz so significant? About one-third of Stanford's offensive playbook involves three-tight-end formations. With Ertz, Coby Fleener and Levine Toilolo on the field at the same time, the Cardinal offense was able to exploit numerous mismatches. Ryan Hewitt split time between fullback and tight end during that stretch. But even then, quarterback Andrew Luck would lose Hewitt out of the backfield, one of his most reliable and productive receivers coming out from behind the line of scrimmage.

Ertz returned for the season finale against Notre Dame. Nowhere near 100 percent, he caught one ball for no yards. But the fact that he was even on the field was a morale boost for his teammates. He's expected to be near full-strength -- if not at 100 percent -- for the Fiesta Bowl.

"It's exciting to have the tight ends back together and ready to go," said Fleener, who was recently named to the AP All-America third-team offense. "I think it's just exciting to know that we have a lot of guys back at full strength and hopefully we can be as good as we were before a lot of the injuries. It can only make us better as a team."

Obviously, Skov won't be back. Neither will wide receiver Chris Owusu, who has suffered at least three concussions in the past 14 months -- the scariest (as if they aren't all scary) coming against Oregon State when he was taken off the field in an ambulance.

There was some hope for Owusu's return because he's a senior and one of the emotional leaders of the offense, but head coach David Shaw told reporters last week "it's not going to happen."

"He's just been one of those guys," Shaw said following a practice last week. "And he's gotten beaten up and knocked out, and he comes back. He's been beaten up and knocked out, and he comes back. And the players recognize that as the guy that they look to for courage."

In Owusu's absence, true freshman Ty Montgomery has been filling in, giving Cardinal fans a glimpse of the future. In the final three games, Montgomery caught 10 balls (on 16 targets) for 130 yards and a touchdown in the finale against Notre Dame.

Still, they have endured, ranking 11th nationally in total offense while averaging almost 481 yards per game.

Offensive linemen Cameron Fleming and Jonathan Martin also had lingering lower leg injuries that forced Fleming to miss time. Both are expected to be back at or near full strength.

Offensive lineman David DeCastro offered a more glass-half-empty view of the Cardinal injury situation.

"We're never going to be injury-free," he said, "that's just part of college football."

On the opposite side of the ball -- aside from Skov -- one of the biggest temporary losses was safety Delano Howell. While he convalesced his injured hand for three games -- only to re-injure it in the first half against Oregon -- Michael Thomas stepped in and split time between free and strong safety.

Youngsters Devon Carrington and Jordan Richards got lots of playing experience that will aid the Cardinal in years to come, but Stanford is clearly a better defense when Howell is on the field. He too is expected to be at full strength.

And yet throughout the injury-plagued season, the players have never used injuries as an excuse.

"I think what it comes down to is no matter who is available, the coaches did an awesome job putting us in the best positions to succeed," Fleener said. "Whether it was Zach or Hewitt in there, ultimately our identity is running the football and being a physical team regardless of who is on the field. That shouldn't change with the personnel."

With one game left to play we're taking a look back at some of the memorable moments/series of moments from Stanford's 2011 season. Some were individual plays, others were a series of plays or games as a whole that were significant to the season.

No. 6: TREE-THIRTY

Setting the scene: Stanford was sloshing its way through a cold night in Pullman Wash., and clinging to a 10-7 halftime lead over the Cougars. Nothing seemed to be clicking offensively. Andrew Luck threw an interception, Stepfan Taylor offered up a rare fumble and the tight ends were nowhere to be found. But that was about to change.

Why it's memorable: After just two catches from the tight ends in the first half (both from Zach Ertz), the trio combined for nine catches, 204 yards and three touchdowns in the second half en route to a 44-14 blowout win over Washington State. As a position group, they took over and dominated. Granted, Luck had to get them the ball, but once they had it in their hands, they were outstanding. Luck also found his rhythm in the second half, completing 13 of 20 passes for 247 yards and four touchdowns.

Levine Toilolo caught a pair of touchdowns -- a 10-yarder and a 26-yarder -- and Coby Fleener hauled in a 28-yard touchdown catch.

Those final 30 minutes reaffirmed what we already knew; when the three tight ends are healthy (which we think they'll be for the Fiesta Bowl) there is almost no way to account for all of them when they are on the field at the same time. This was as dominant a second half of football from the three as we saw all season.

With one game left to play we're taking a look back at some of the memorable moments/series of moments from Stanford's 2011 season. Some were individual plays, others were a series of plays or games as a whole that were significant to the season.

No. 9: BIG MAN, BIG GAME

Setting the scene: With the Cardinal leading Arizona 23-10 early in the fourth quarter, quarterback Andrew Luck connected with Levine Toilolo on a 34-yard touchdown strike to put Stanford ahead 30-10.

Why it's memorable: This was Toilolo's official "welcome back" party after suffering a significant knee injury that kept him out of last season. The touchdown itself was fantastic -- a play-action that sucked the entire Arizona defense in. If you recall, fellow tight end Zach Ertz actually reaches his hand up to try and make the catch because both players were so wide open. Then-Arizona coach Mike Stoops would later marvel how Stanford "manipulated" his defense. That play summed it up.

It was Toilolo's first career touchdown reception and he finished the game with four catches for 102 yards and the score.

That game also provided some ominous forecasting because Coby Fleener missed the bulk of the contest after displaying concussion symptoms. So with just Toilolo and Ertz in the game, it was our first look at how Stanford would cope without all three tight ends at Luck's disposal -- something that would be a significant factor late in the season.

The regular season is over, which means grades are due. Here's part seven of the ongoing regular-season report card for Stanford.

TIGHT ENDS

Grade: A

Summary: Is there a better tight end corps in the country? Don't think so. Is there a better deep-threat tight end than Coby Fleener? Don't think so. The tight ends were the high point of Stanford's passing game this season, accounting for 39 percent of Andrew Luck's passing yards, 31 percent of his targets, 30 percent of the catches and 51 percent of the receiving touchdowns. In all, the tight ends caught 18 of Luck's 35 touchdowns.

Fleener headlined the group with 10 touchdown catches (nine via Luck) and was statistically the most offensively productive tight end in the nation. With his size and speed, he was a mismatch for every safety and defensive back that tried to cover him.

Until Zach Ertz was injured against USC, he was Luck's favorite target on third down. His strength was in the mid-range passing game and red zone. He had 23 catches for 308 yards and three touchdowns. Head coach David Shaw said he expects Ertz to be completely healthy by the Fiesta Bowl next month.

Levine Toilolo ended up being the most reliable of the tight ends, catching 24-of-33 balls thrown his way. While he proved to be an amazing red zone target at 6-foot-8 (how do you cover that!?), he also showed he can run just as well in the open field and over the middle.

Shaw said approximately 35 percent of Stanford's playbook revolves around the three-tight-end formations. And when the three of them were on the field and healthy, it was virtually impossible for teams to account for all three.

Each brought their own individual skill sets, and each became a stronger run blocker as the season progressed -- particularly Toilolo.

The only reason they don't get the "A+" was because in the Oregon game, when Luck needed them most, they had their worst performance as a unit and had critical drops that killed drives and kept points off the board. They caught just 10-of-18 balls thrown their way (a season low 55.6 completion percentage) and it was one of two games a tight end failed to score (Colorado was the other, though honorary tight end Ryan Hewitt had two scores in the game).

Outside of that one bad outing, they were dominant, powerful and clearly the best unit in the country. And let's be honest, is there a cooler nickname out there for a position group than The Tree Amigos?

Backups: All three could have been "starters" though none actually "started" all 12 games because Stanford uses so many different formations. The only other tight end to register a stat was Davis Dudchock, who couldn't connect with Luck on a touchdown pass against Cal -- his only target of the season.

Stanford Cardinal (11-1) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1)

Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Stanford take by Stanford blogger Kevin Gemmell: Welcome back to the BCS. The Cardinal return after smoking Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl last season -- many thinking it was the final game for coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback Andrew Luck.

Harbaugh left, Luck stayed. And he turned in a Heisman-worthy season, throwing 35 touchdowns to nine interceptions, including a perfect 26-0 touchdown-interception ratio in the red zone.

With a trio of top-flight tight ends -- headlined by Coby Fleener -- Luck has proved why he's considered the No. 1 NFL prospect. But he's not the only top draft pick on the team. Offensive tackle Jonathan Martin is considered one of the two best left tackles in college football and guard David DeCastro is the best interior lineman in the country.

The tight ends -- Fleener, Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo -- have accounted for more than half of Luck's 35 passing touchdowns on the season.

But what makes Stanford go is its balance. Stepfan Taylor had his second straight 1,000-yard season, and he did it platooning with Tyler Gaffney, Jeremy Stewart and Anthony Wilkerson.

Defensively, Chase Thomas leads a front seven that is one of the best in college football. The loss of inside linebacker Shayne Skov in the third game of the season was a blow to the defense, but youngsters Jarek Lancaster and A.J. Tarpley have filled the void nicely -- steadily improving every week.

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Oklahoma State take from Big 12 blogger David Ubben: The Cowboys are best known for their offense, and for good reason. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon are one of the nation's best pass-catch combos, and between Blackmon's physical nature and Weeden's accuracy, they're a nightmare for defenses.

Making matters more difficult is Joseph Randle, who has quietly had one of the best seasons of any running back in the Big 12. He's racked up 1,193 rushing yards with 23 (!) rushing touchdowns. Only three players in college football have more TDs. The first-year starter might be the Cowboys' secret weapon.

Defensively, the raw numbers aren't great for the Cowboys, but those rumors you've heard? They're true. The defense is a lot better than most give it credit. The Cowboys have an efficient defense that plays well when it counts, and ranks second nationally with a plus-20 turnover margin. Tough to beat that.

Quinn Sharp and Justin Gilbert make things interesting on special teams, too. Sharp leads the nation in touchbacks, is one of the Big 12's best place-kickers, and would be one of the nation's best in punting average -- if he had enough attempts. Gilbert is a dangerous return man who already has four touchdown returns in his first two seasons.