ESPN College Football

First thoughts ...

The 2012 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, aka the January NFL Combine, could have as many as five first-round draft picks on the field when the Stanford Cardinal and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet on Jan. 2.

Four of them come from Stanford: quarterback Andrew Luck, offensive linemen Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro and possibly tight end Coby Fleener.

Oklahoma State boasts – hands down -- the nation's best wide receiver in Justin Blackmon. He has 113 catches, 1,336 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Cardinal have seen Blackmon-esque wide receivers this season -- Juron Criner, Michael Floyd, Robert Woods, etc. Big, fast, physical wide receivers who can use their bodies to create separation. But seeing players like Blackmon isn't the same as seeing Blackmon.

“The first time I saw him getting ready for Arizona, I put on the Oklahoma State game,” Stanford head coach David Shaw explained. “I’m trying to watch Arizona’s defense but I kept watching Justin. I had to go back to the sheet that had all of the heights and weight on it. Is he really that big? Can he be that big and that fast and that quick? A guy that will catch a 50-yard post and then come back again on the next play and it doesn't look like he's out of breath. He's a phenomenal athlete and an outstanding football player.”

The Cardinal have seen Weeden-esque quarterbacks before -- Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, etc.; quarterbacks with arms who can deliver with pinpoint accuracy. But seeing quarterbacks like Brandon Weeden isn't the same as seeing Weeden.

Oh yeah … did I mention they have Blackmon?

“That guy wearing No. 81 is something special,” Shaw said. “And the combination of those two guys is formidable. It has been. They have other guys. They have good running backs and other wide receivers that make big plays also. But Justin Blackmon I think is a special, special player. Being who I am, that's where my eye gravitates towards when I watch a team like this. I studied receivers for so long in the NFL. This guy is ideal. He's what you're looking for.”

We have a month to pore over statistics, scrutinize every position and every individual battle. But my first thought is that this is an incredibly even matchup.

• Both teams have marquee quarterbacks.
• Both teams have strong passing games – a clear edge to Oklahoma State’s receivers and a clear edge to Stanford’s tight ends.
• Both teams have strong running games, though the Cardinal are a little more balanced and methodical.
• Both have defenses that have taken their share of criticism, but ultimately make plays when they need to.

Of all of the BCS bowl games, this is the headliner. It might not be for the national championship -- both teams had a shot at it, though Oklahoma State has the bigger gripe -- but at first glance this looks to be the most entertaining game on the docket. If my DVR has space for only one of the BCS bowl games, this is the one I'd record.

“I think this game is going to be great for college football,” Shaw said. “I think it's going to be exciting. It has a lot of what you're looking for ... You've got one of the best teams in the nation, won their conference. Have an outstanding quarterback, outstanding receiver and an outstanding system; an opportunistic defense that gets turnovers and plays at a fast tempo with a lot of speed.

“Then you have this little team from the West Coast that runs the football with a prototypical quarterback with a balanced offensive attack and attacking style defense. I think it's going to be exciting. I think it's going to be one of the best bowl games this year.”

Question from reporter: Do you think it will be better than the national championship?

Shaw, with a laugh: “I didn't say that.”

Question from reporter: Will it be higher scoring?

Shaw, with a bigger laugh: “I didn't say that, either.”

Shaw doesn’t have to say it. We’re all thinking it.

As we start looking ahead to Saturday's showdown between Stanford and Oregon, it's worth taking a look at how they have matched up against common opponents this season. None of the four common opponents really challenged either team, though it's interesting to compare head-to-head how injuries and/or circumstances impacted the end result.

Arizona (both games were on the road)

• Oregon Score: 56-31
• Stanford Score: 37-10
• Oregon Summary: Arizona quarterback Nick Foles tossed three touchdowns and threw for 398 yards, but it was LaMichael James who stole the show, rushing for a school record 288 yards.
• What this told us about Oregon: Pretty much what we already knew. James is the marquee running back in the conference and was moving at a Heisman pace before he was injured two games later. Given his performance last week against Washington, he looks to be back on track.
• Stanford Summary: Stanford lost linebacker Shayne Skov for the season and was without tight end Coby Fleener most of the game. The defense kept Foles from really breaking out on the long ball while the pass rush went crazy with five sacks. Big day for tight end Levine Toilolo -- four catches 102 yards and a touchdown.
• What this told us about Stanford: This was Stanford’s first taste of adversity with Skov going down. They responded well and Jarek Lancaster and A.J. Tarpley have been very good this season in Skov’s absence. The three-tight-end formations stupefied the Arizona defense.

Colorado (Oregon was on the road, Stanford was at home)

• Oregon Score: 45-2
• Stanford Score: 48-7
• Oregon Summary: Even with Darron Thomas and LaMichael James out because of injury, the Ducks cruised. Quarterback Bryan Bennett and tailback Kenjon Barner paced the Ducks to the blowout win while the defense shut down a staggering Colorado offense.
• What this told us about Oregon: Like Stanford, the Ducks have tremendous depth. The loss of one or two players will not slow down what they want to do on either side of the ball. Oregon is the only team that can match Stanford’s depth at running back (or is it the other way around). Neither team will yield its offensive philosophies in spite of injury.
• Stanford summary: This was perhaps Stanford’s most physical game on both sides of the ball. The defense picked up three sacks, the offensive line looked powerful on a couple of fourth-down conversions and fullback Ryan Hewitt looked sharp with two touchdown catches. Andrew Luck was brilliant in the no-huddle play-calling.
• What this told us about Stanford: We really saw Luck shine in this game -- specifically putting Stanford into the proper formations with the play-calling. He was a crisp 26-of-33 with three touchdowns for 370 yards. When he plays like this, he is without a doubt, head-and-shoulders above any other player in college football.

Washington State (Oregon was at home, Stanford was on the road)

• Oregon Score: 43-28
• Stanford score: 44-14
• Oregon Summary: After a fairly sluggish first half, where the Ducks held a 15-10 advantage after the first 30 minutes, Bryan Bennett replaced Darron Thomas in the second half. Thomas was returning from a knee injury and coach Chip Kelly said he thought Bennett gave them the best chance to win. Notable that Washington State wide receiver Jared Karstetter had his biggest game of the season: seven catches, 114 yards and a touchdown against the Ducks.
• What this told us about Oregon: Bennett can be a suitable proxy for Thomas if needed. And that also opens up the possibility of gadget plays with both on the field at the same time. Also, Oregon can be just as explosive in the second half after a slow first -- where they have scored the bulk of their points this season.
• Stanford summary: Like Oregon, it was a tale of two halves -- as is typical with Stanford on the road this year. Offense never really clicked in the first half, but the tight ends exploded in the second half and carried the Cardinal to a big win.
• What this told us about Stanford: When the three tight ends are healthy and on the field at the same time, there is almost no way to stop them. However, this point might prove to be irrelevant depending on the health of Zach Ertz – who is doubtful for Saturday's game with a knee injury. Head coach David Shaw hinted that Levine Toilolo will probably play Saturday.

Washington (Oregon was on the road, Stanford was at home)

• Oregon Score: 34-17
• Stanford Score: 65-21
• Oregon Summary: The Ducks’ offense rolled and Thomas looked sharper than he did coming back from injury against Washington State. James also looked solid, gaining 156 yards on the ground. But it was the defense, which forced three turnovers and sacked Keith Price six times -- that took center stage.
• What this told us about Oregon: They aren’t just about offense. While their hurry-up, spread-triple gets a ton of attention, they are an athletic bunch up front that can get after the quarterback.
• Stanford summary: Best rushing performance in school history. That’s really all that needs to be said about the offense. However, the defense gave up some big runs to Washington’s Chris Polk in the first half.
• What this told us about Stanford: The Cardinal can dominate -- in a major way -- on the ground. As a team, they rushed for 446 yards and Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney both went for more than 100 yards. It also showed us that Stanford’s secondary misses Delano Howell.

Part eight of the ongoing report card for the Stanford Cardinal during the bye week (and spilling over a little into this week).

THE SECONDARY

Grade: C

Summary: Too many yards, too many missed tackles. A "C" is average. And that's what the secondary has been, average. They haven't done anything completely terrible that would earn them anything lower. But they haven't really done anything great that would earn them anything higher.

They have been an easy target for criticism the first few weeks -- and I've taken my shots at them. Maybe unfairly. No one has found a way to run the ball against the Cardinal so it stands to reason that teams are going to get more yards through the passing game. The missed tackles were a problem against San Jose State and Duke. It improved against Arizona. And despite Nick Foles completing his first 17 passes, there were some dinks and dunks in there that inflated the total.

However, we're yet to see an interception out of this group. That's 111 passing attempts from opposing quarterbacks, who are completing 65.7 percent of those passes by the way, without a single one being picked off. Only six schools have failed to register a pick so far this season, and Stanford is one of them. The Cardinal rank 101st out of 120 FBS schools in pass defense.

But here's where the positives come in. They have only allowed one passing touchdown in three games. And as a team, the Cardinal starters have allowed just one touchdown. The secondary has to get some credit for that. And they have 10 pass breakups, which puts them on pace to pass last year's total of 50 breakups.

They are not wanting for athleticism. Delano Howell and Michael Thomas are both extremely talented athletes and both play their safety positions well. True sophomore Devon Carrington has also started at strong safety and in nickle formations. Shaw was critical of Carrington early, saying he needed to worry less about the big hits and focus more on tackling. With 12 tackles in three games, it seems like he's settled down. Howell is second on the squad with 14 tackles and a pass breakup and Thomas checks in behind him with 13 tackles and a pass breakup.

Cornerbacks Barry Browning and Johnson Bademosi have played OK. Bademosi has been a very effective tackler with 10 solo stops on the year. And I have no problem with his pass interference call on Juron Criner against Arizona. It was a heady play that prevented a touchdown. He got beat, but he kept Criner out of the end zone. But he has been flagged in all three games (once declined) so that is a concern.

I'm yet to see a game where on offense has negative total yards (I'm sure it's happened, I just haven't seen it). They are going to get them somewhere. And because teams haven't been able to do it on the ground, they've done it against the secondary.

But Stanford's back four has been able to buckle down when it matters -- in their own territory and red zone.

Backups: Terrence Brown has appeared in all three games and has four tackles. Usua Amanam has five tackles, all of them solo. Jordan Richards has five tackles and has broken up a pass.

Previous report cards:

Quarterbacks

Defensive line

Offensive line

Linebackers

Running backs/Fullbacks

Tight ends

Wide receivers

A really nice piece from ESPN's Brock Huard comparing USC quarterback Matt Barkley to Stanford's Andrew Luck. Or rather, why Barkley falls short of Luck in the tale of the tape.

Writes Huard:

But if there is one thing that top-level quarterback play -- and the evaluation of it -- is not, it's simple. And a closer look at Barkley's performance and his numbers reveals that the QB still has a clear weakness that he must improve upon in order to reach the Andrew Luck stratosphere of elite, franchise-QBs-in-the-making.

The Pac-12 has some pretty good quarterbacks this season, and the conversation usually starts with Luck and Barkley. Their side-by-side stats are pretty comparable.

Barkley has more yards (892 to 786), touchdowns (9 to 8) and a higher completion percentage (69 percent to 67.1 percent). Luck has thrown 31 less balls and has the higher quarterback rating (173.4 to 157.4). But as Huard explains, don't always believe what the numbers tell you.

Last week's Stanford-Arizona game was billed as a shootout between Luck and Arizona's Nick Foles. With a 37-10 Stanford win, only one team was using live ammo.

Expect the same type of pregame hype when Stanford heads to SoCal on Oct. 29 for a 5 p.m. kickoff against the Trojans.

For the second straight week the Stanford Cardinal went on the road and came away with a convincing victory. Only this time, the weather was hotter (though not as muggy), the opponent was bigger, stronger, faster and the 'Zona Zoo in Tucson was far more hostile than the couple of thousand basketball fans who decided to take in a football game at Duke. Cameron Crazies, they were not. Here's a look back at some of the highs and lows of Stanford's 37-10 win over Arizona.

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  Matt Kartozian (US Presswire)Stanford running back Anthony Wilkerson's touchdown on fourth down was a highlight of the Cardinal's win over Arizona.
  Highlight reel: Anthony Wilkerson's 24-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-24 was a great call and was executed to perfection. With three backs behind him, Luck faked the belly dive to the fullback. Watch the replay and see the defensive end commit to the misdirection. That allowed Wilkerson to take the pitch on the backside and from there, it was a foot race. Great call, great run.
• Best play: The play-action passing was clicking for the Cardinal all night. And there are several plays that could have fallen into this category. But Luck's 34-yard touchdown pass to Levine Toilolo -- the first of the tight end's career -- gets the style points. Not only was Toilolo wide open, but fellow tight end Zach Ertz was open as well and actually reached up for the ball. Watch the entire Arizona defense sell out on the run. But if you're the Wildcat secondary, how do you miss the 6-foot-8 and the 6-foot-6 guys running right passed you?
• Best gamesmanship: It came from Arizona coach Mike Stoops in the first quarter. Stanford's Jordan Williamson lined up for a chip-shot field goal at the Arizona 2-yard line. But he let the clock wind down for a delay of game call that would have given him a little more space to kick. But Stoops wisely declined the penalty. Which I guess is freezing the kicker by making him stand closer. Either way, Williamson converted the 20-yard kick for a 3-0 Stanford lead and the Cardinal never looked back.
• Who's hot? Take your pick of Stepfan Taylor or Toilolo. Both had career nights. But we'll go with Taylor, who rushed for 153 yards, including a season-best 49-yard run. He didn't find the end zone, but he found an average of 7 yards every time he touched the ball.
• Who's not? This is starting to become a weekly trend -- the who's not is once again the opponent's offensive line, which leaked all through the game and allowed quarterback Nick Foles to be brought down five times. The Cardinal have 11 sacks in their last two games and 13 on the season.
• The good: After allowing Foles to complete his first 17 passes (for an average of 10.7 yards per completion), the secondary tightened and the pass rush quickened and Foles was just 7-of-16 from that point on. Not an outstanding performance from the secondary -- but steady, and better than we saw in the previous two weeks.
• The bad: Losing Shayne Skov -- even for a half, is bad. He brings so much more than just tackles to the Cardinal run defense. An update on his condition is expected sometime today. If he's gone for an extended amount of time, it will be a massive blow to the linebacking corps. They are deep at linebacker, but Skov is irreplaceable.

• This team can win on the road: It's done it in consecutive weeks, across the country, in inclement weather and against, well, one decent team. As Stanford coach David Shaw said following last night’s 37-10 victory over Arizona, “Don’t let the scores fool you, they are a very good team.” I wouldn’t go as far as to say very good, but Arizona is good enough that the Cardinal proved a point to themselves and a lot of naysayers.
• The secondary can be good: I will use the word “very” when describing Nick Foles -- as in he’s a very good quarterback. But the Cardinal secondary, which had been hit-and-miss, or just plain missing hits through the first two weeks, stepped up and played a very solid game. It only got beat on a couple of one-on-one plays, and there were a few holes in the coverage -- which is to be expected when playing against a spread team. But Stanford tackled much better than it had in previous weeks. And, more importantly it held its coverage for an extra second, which allowed the front seven to generate five sacks.
• This team can deal with some adversity: First it was tight end Coby Fleener, who was lost for the game after suffering a big hit in the first quarter. He was showing concussion-like symptoms so he was kept out. Then it was linebacker Shayne Skov, who suffered what appeared to be a serious knee injury in the second quarter. His status isn’t known, but he was carted off the sideline -- never a good sign. But the Cardinal showed their depth at tight end with Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo both nabbing touchdowns. And the defense buckled down to blank Arizona in the second half. If Skov’s injury is serious, there will be more adversity to come.
• The O-line keeps getting better: It was fantastic in the run game. It exploded off the ball, held blocks and kept its feet moving. The end result was 242 yards on the ground and an impressive average of 6.2 yards per carry collectively for the running backs. Pass protection was better than last week, though quarterback Andrew Luck still took a couple of shots. But he wasn’t sacked. And whenever that happens, it’s a good day for the boys up front.
• Jordan Williamson’s got game: Nice game for the kicker. Three field goals -- 20, 45 (career long) and 33 yards -- plus two touchbacks and two more that were run out of the end zone. From Week 1 to Week 3, he has showed splendid improvement.

TUCSON, Ariz. -- Weird game. Weird team.

With an armory on offense and blockade-inducing defense, the Stanford Cardinal once again waited for the final 30 minutes to play their best football.

It’s becoming an unsettling trend for coach David Shaw and his cast of players. For three straight weeks, the theme has been this:

“I like what we did in the second half,” said Shaw.

That’s all well and good because it was a win -- on the road -- against a much tougher opponent than the previous two weeks. The Cardinal blanked Arizona 21-0 in the second half en route to a 37-10 win in the Pac-12 opener for both schools.

But what about those first 30 minutes, when the offense looked disheveled, the defense seemed splotchy and any sense of rhythm was non-existent?

“I don’t know how to explain it,” said quarterback Andrew Luck. “I don’t think we want to do that. It’s definitely something we’re going to try to improve on. I can’t explain it.”

Luck’s stats were fairly typical, 20-of-31 for 325 yards and two touchdowns. But his overall performance was very atypical. He made bad throws -- and that’s something we don’t say often about Luck. Twice he was almost intercepted in the red zone, where he’s usually at his most cautious and surgical. Another time he threw a flat ball on a fade out of the end zone -- a pass we’ve seen him make dozens of times.

“We have a lot of things to improve on, obviously,” Luck said.

Just like last week, the stats don’t tell the whole story. The No. 6 Cardinal (3-0, 1-0) totaled a season-high 567 yards of offense, grabbing 8.1 yards per play. And just like last week, they had more yards in the first half than in the second. But they were yards that resulted in three field goals, one touchdown and a punt. In the second half, the result was three touchdowns to one punt.

“We just need to establish a rhythm,” Shaw said. “We’re better once we establish a run rhythm. It started to happen kinda early. We had a couple of nice drives in the first half. But in the second half we came out in rhythm. We need to start the first half like we start the second half.”

Two Cardinal who didn’t look out of rhythm were running back Stepfan Taylor and tight end Levine Toilolo, who both put up career numbers. Taylor carried the ball 22 times for 153 yards -- including a long run of 49 yards and an average of 7 yards per carry.

“He’s special,” Shaw said of Taylor. “... He was outstanding, patient, quick and he’s got a low center of gravity. He’s not the biggest guy in the world, but he’ll drag some tacklers.”

Toilolo led all players with 102 yards on four catches and his first career touchdown.

“We knew that the defense was going to over-run some things and then we’d go for the big plays,” Taylor said. “I sensed that in the second half. Everything started clicking in the second half.”

Which brings us back to the original question. What’s going on in the first half?

“I wish I knew the answer,” he said. “I wish we could start faster. We’ll watch film and see what we need to fix.”

For Toilolo, who worked his way back from a knee injury last year, it was a coming out party. With tight end Coby Fleener sitting most of the game after exhibiting concussion symptoms, Toilolo and tight end Zach Ertz carried the flag for the tight ends.

“Me and Zach did whatever the coaches asked of us and we executed,” Toilolo said. “This is stuff we work on all week in practice and when the coaches called my number, I was happy to be able to contribute. I think the rest of the offense played well, which opened up some of those passes.”

Defensively, the Cardinal stiffened in the second half as well. After the starting 11 allowed its first touchdown of the season in the second quarter -- a 6-yard pass from Nick Foles to Juron Criner -- the defense settled in during the second half and blanked the Wildcats. Foles completed 24 of 33 passes for 239 yards and the lone score. But he was pestered by Stanford’s front seven and sacked five times.

“We left a lot of plays out there in the first half,” said safety Michael Thomas. “We always talk about starting fast and it’s something we haven’t done yet. We do pride ourselves on finding a way to finish and finish faster. That’s what we do in the second half. We keep making plays.”

Even though those plays have resulted in three wins this season, Shaw said his team has to find ways to play the first 30 minutes better.

“We challenged our guys at halftime to take the fight to them,” Shaw said. “To be physical. To see if we could wear them down. That’s the philosophy we believe in. Our second half has got to be better than our first and that’s what we did tonight.

“But we have to start faster.”

That’s starting to sound all-too familiar.

TUCSON, Ariz. -- Stanford leads Arizona 16-10 at the half.

• Best player: It was linebacker Shayne Skov until he was hurt in the second quarter. Kicker Jordan Williamson has been fantastic, converting field goals of 20, 33 and a career-long 45. He's also had more depth on his kickoffs.
• Best call: Without a doubt, the fourth-and-1 call at the Arizona 24-yard line. A misdirection pitch that forced the defensive end to bite on the initial pitch. Anthony Wilkerson took the flip on the backside and then scampered 24 yards for the score.
• What Stanford needs to do: Stay balanced. The Cardinal are running the ball well. The loss of Skov -- who was carted off from the sidelines -- is a big one. They can't let that emotionally deflate them. Same with tight end Coby Fleener on offense, who hasn't returned since taking a big shot in the first quarter. His return for the second half is unknown. He has been walking the sidelines, but without his helmet.
• What Arizona needs to do: Fortunately for them, Andrew Luck isn't playing a great game. Running the ball doesn't appear to be an option, which was predictable. Nick Foles is proving to be as accurate a quarterback as expected. Their best chance is to stay in the air. There is great risk being a pass-only team. But with that comes great reward.

TUCSON, Ariz. -- Arizona got its first points of the game on the second play of the second quarter with a 27-yard field goal from Jaime Salazar. Which means Stanford's defense has yet to give up any points in the first quarter all season.

Arizona quarterback Nick Foles completed two big passes as the quarter started to wind down. That seems to be the only way they'll move the ball. After one quarter, Arizona has -6 yards rushing.

Kudos to offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton for his call on Stanford's fourth-and-1 in the first quarter. A misdirection pitch to Anthony Wilkerson that went for a 24-yard rushing touchdown. Perfect call on fourth down. The defensive end bit on the play and Wilkerson turned the corner untouched.

TUCSON, Ariz. -- Would he? Or wouldn't he?

The question of whether Arizona wide receiver Juron Criner would play appears to be answered. He came out in full gear and ran (term used loosely) with the first-team offense during the pregame warm ups.

The Cardinal secondary is already expected to be challenged by the talented and accurate Arizona quarterback Nick Foles. Even without his full arsenal of receivers, he's one of the most accurate passers in the country. If Criner is even at 80 percent, the 6-4, 215-pound receiver can be a difference-maker for the Wildcats.

Don't be surprised if the Cardinal start quick. They have scored on their opening drive in 11 of their last 15 games.

Stanford enters the game having won four of the last five meetings in Tucson.

Questions on the offensive line, secondary and play-calling jumped out this week.

Diane in San Francisco writes: I just heard Brian Kelly say that Michigan State is Notre Dame's toughest game of the year. Standard "one-game-at-a-time" talk -- or should Stanford fans take that as a slight?

Kevin Gemmell: Diane, I'd be more worried about Nick Foles tomorrow than Notre Dame in November. It could be coach-speak. It could be that he really believes that. Or it could be the fact that Notre Dame has more turnovers than a Main Street bakery and he's trying to motivate his team. I'd get through the next nine games, then worry about the 10th.

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Bob in San Francisco writes: Jordan Watkins' commitment is the most recent in a multi-year haul of top Georgia talent to Stanford [James Vaughters, Ronnie Harris, Henry Anderson, David Yankey, Jamal -Rashad Patterson]. What's the root of Stanford's success there? What got it started?

Kevin Gemmell: Stanford has the advantage of being one of the few schools that is a true national recruiter. They are a brand name in education and slowly but surely starting to become a brand name in football. Co-defensive coordinator Derek Mason recruits Georgia and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton recruits Atlanta. Give credit to those guys for hitting the road hard.

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James in Basking Ridge, N.J., writes: How do you think our chances of going all the way are holding up? Do you think the lack of offense in the first half so far this year will be a problem in trying to beat good teams like Oregon? I think one of the main problems is the offensive line - we lost a lot of good starters and I think Andrew (Luck) is feeling a bit pressured in the pocket. Go Card!

Kevin Gemmell: I think this weekend is going to be very telling. We'll find out just how much the coaching staff was keeping in the bag offensively through the first two games. I think a lot of the offensive line woes can be attributed to them being young and it being early in the season. I saw improvement from Week 1 to Week 2 and expect to see more improvement this week. Yes, Luck felt the pressure. But three of the five linemen had never experienced delayed blitzing in a live-game situation. It took them a half to figure it out. Next time it happens, they'll be better prepared. That comes with time and communication -- something the line is getting better at each practice.

As for going all the way? The only thing Stanford can control is their win-loss record. Keep winning, and they'll make a good case. But the rest of the conference will need some quality wins to bolster their chances.

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Kevin in San Jose, Calif., writes: Kevin, with the obvious discrepancy between the pass defense and run defense, what's to stop all of the upcoming opponents from passing the entire game? In this respect, do you think the team is in trouble in games vs. teams like Arizona and USC? The way they are playing, it seems difficult to imagine they'll have any chance at stopping the [Matt] Barkley-[Robert] Woods combination. Your thoughts?

Kevin Gemmell: I too have been a little worried about the secondary through the first couple of weeks. But this isn't the NFL, and teams can't live on the pass alone. When you throw the ball 50 times a game, at least one or two bad things are going to happen. And Stanford has such a good pass rush that eventually it's going to start rattling the quarterback. The secondary really hasn't blown any coverages. They just need to do a better job of tackling. It's a correctable problem. This team was second in the Pac-10 last year with 18 interceptions, so the talent is there to make those plays. This weekend is going to be a very good test for the secondary against Foles. And you have to figure by the time Oct. 29 rolls around and the team faces USC, there is going to be a drastic improvement.

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CC in Pennsylvania writes: Long-time Cardinal fanatics love the balanced attack. Years ago, 75% pass, 25% run plays, at an all-time low in the so-called "Buddy Ball" era. (Against Duke), a perfect 50/50. So overall, joy. But it was frustrating to watch the play-calling during the 2nd and 3rd possessions of the first half when the Card looked average and the answer was obvious: run, stop passing altogether. With [Stepfan] Taylor going for a minimum of 4 yards, and at times over 10 a clip, why pass at all? Against teams with lesser girth and lesser athletes (read: Colorado, OSU, Cal), the Cardinal can eliminate the drama with a grinding running attack. The malaise of the first half is as much on the coaches for the play-calling as it is on the lethargy of the squad. I hope that when the film is reviewed, the coaches objectively look at both.

Kevin Gemmell: The reason Stanford ran the flea-flicker on the first possession was to try to loosen up the linebackers and safeties. The first possession was to set up the game plan on the second and third possessions. On the second possession, they ran on second-and-5 and had no gain. Then a blitz forced an incomplete pass on third-and-5. On the third drive, after Taylor rushed for 11 yards and 6 yards, Duke started to go heavy in the box, so the logical decision was to pass. They just happened to be incompletes.

I, too, am a fan of balance in an offense. But not every run is going to be 8 yards and not every pass is going to be completed. I didn't have any problems with the play-calling. The execution wasn't entirely there in the first half. But I give them kudos for making the necessary adjustments in the second half.

As for why pass at all? Look at who you have at quarterback. Look at who you have at tight end. My question to you is why would you disregard that portion of your offense?

Thanks for the letters. Keep them coming.

Today's look at what others are writing about Stanford and tomorrow's game at Arizona.

Arizona is the first real test of the season for Stanford.

Another story and praise for tight end Coby Fleener.

Is Saturday's Pac-12 opener at Arizona set to be a shootout?

Arizona quarterback Nick Foles is standing out in a conference with great quarterbacks.

No. 6 Stanford faces its first significant test of the season Saturday at Arizona, where the spirited 'Zona Zoo can be a challenge for opposing offenses.

The game has the potential to be highly entertaining, at least if you like A-list quarterbacks. Stanford's Andrew Luck is a leading Heisman Trophy candidate and likely will be the top over all pick in next spring's NFL draft, while Arizona's Nick Foles has put up huge numbers so far and could join Luck in the draft's first round.

Stanford blogger Kevin Gemmell and Pac-12 blogger Ted Miller decided there was plenty to discuss.

Kevin Gemmell: Ted, I think it's commonly accepted that Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is the Heisman front-runner and will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. But I couldn't help notice Arizona quarterback Nick Foles getting some love in last week's Heisman poll. Stanford's secondary has been its weakest cog through two weeks of the season. Foles will be, by far, the most accurate quarterback they have faced this season when they roll into Tucson on Saturday. That has me wondering. Do we have this all wrong? Is Foles the Pac-12 quarterback we should be focusing on and not Luck?

Ted Miller: Well, Luck is Luck, considered by many to be the best quarterback prospect in a decade. He’s the total package and almost certain top pick in the NFL draft this spring. More than a few folks believe, however, that Foles, if he turns in a good season, also could find his way into the first round of the NFL draft. He’s a big guy with a good arm and is very accurate. Further, as a third-year starter, he’s experienced. He’s not going to get surprised. And he will tax the Stanford pass defense, particularly if he gets receiver Juron Criner back. My guess is Luck will look longingly at Foles’ receivers.

The problem for Foles and Arizona, though, is five new offensive line starters. They’ve done OK pass blocking, but the Wildcats run game has been mostly nonexistent. Seems like the Stanford front seven has been stout thus far. We knew the linebackers would be good. Tell me about the defensive line.

Kevin Gemmell: You're right about the linebackers. They are good. And a significant reason they are good is because of that defensive line. As you know, linebackers rule in the 3-4 scheme, and the boys up front are there to occupy the blockers. But here's the catch. They are doing more than that. Matt Masifilo, Terrence Stephens and Ben Gardner have also been making tackles and getting to the quarterback. Those three have combined for 13 tackles, five tackles for losses of 25 yards, two sacks, a fumble recovery and a pass breakup in the first two games. First they occupy the block, then they shed it just as quickly. Where the Stanford defense has had some problems through the first couple of weeks has been in the secondary. It hasn't really been "burned" by any big plays, but the defenders have missed tackles which have led to a few big plays. They have created the big play on their own. Never a good thing. San Jose State and Duke completed 62 percent of their passes against the Cardinal. Not great numbers, but better than you'd expect from a couple of lower-tier teams. What's going to happen when an accurate passer like Foles gets in there?

Ted Miller: Well, the Stanford secondary then is going to need to buckle up because while there’s talk of trying for some balance in Tucson, it’s really going to be about Foles and the passing game. Of course, as good as Foles is and as deep as the Wildcats receivers are, the offense is not the same without Criner, who it’s fair to say is questionable after having an appendectomy last week. With Criner, Foles has a big target who’s a deep threat and has a knack for making big plays. Without him, the passing attack lacks that obvious go-to target. That Cardinal secondary, which only lost cornerback Richard Sherman from 2010, did a good job against Foles last year, holding him to 248 yards passing -- 5.2 yards per completion -- with a touchdown and an interception from Sherman. Foles has to win that battle, though, for the Wildcats to have a chance for the upset. He’ll need another 400-yard passing game.

What about the other side of the ball? While Luck is back and looking good, despite losing his top-two receivers from 2010, how has the personality of the offense changed after the departure of coach Jim Harbaugh and some key players? Arizona coach Mike Stoops said the Cardinal had been “vanilla” in the first two games. Are we going to see some new things this weekend?

Kevin Gemmell: The personality is a lot like David Shaw. Balanced. You haven't seen "Heisman-esque" numbers out of Luck, because he doesn't play in a five-wide spread offense. They want to establish the run, be physical, and then pick their moments to take the shots down the field. The running game has been hit-and-miss to this point. But that's to be expected with three new starters on the offensive line. Some readers have commented to me that they think Stanford has lost its "swagger" sans Harbaugh. I couldn't disagree more. There is plenty of swagger to go around, and 101 points in two games to back that up.

Shaw heard the "vanilla" comment, and he called it a fair assessment. But so far we've seen a flea-flicker and a nifty little shovel pass. Not entirely vanilla. There's nothing wrong with showing other teams on film that you have those clubs in your bag. And they've also shown a lot of their three tight-end formations. Talk about mismatch issues! Stanford has three tight ends -- two of them 6-foot-6 and another at 6-8 -- who would create matchup problems for any defense in this country. Those tight ends have more than made up for the missing wide receivers from last season. And speaking of the receivers, even though Chris Owusu hasn't had that "big play," he is coming off a 100-yard receiving game against Duke, and Griff Whalen has proven to be a nice presence underneath.

Let's call it vanilla with sprinkles, cookie dough and a drizzle of caramel sauce.

OK, Ted. Prediction time. You're the Pac-12 veteran. How do you see this one playing out?

Ted Miller: It would be a lot easier, Kevin, if we knew if Criner was going to play. My hunch is no. But I still wouldn’t pick the Wildcats in this one because they lack a running game to help Foles, and the young offensive line is going to struggle with the Cardinal front seven. Still, Arizona plays better in front of the ‘Zona Zoo, one of the best home crowds in the Pac-12. My pick is a competitive 35-24 victory for Stanford, with the Cardinal asserting itself in the fourth quarter.

What’s your take?

Kevin Gemmell: Truly, great minds think alike. I had Stanford pegged at 35-24 in my Thursday prediction. I'm looking for a lot more running out the of the Cardinal than people are probably expecting in a game with two marquee quarterbacks. I think the Cardinal are a little tired of hearing the folks say they haven't played anyone yet. Not that Arizona is Alabama or Oklahoma -- but a win against an above average Pac-12 team on the road would go a long way toward silencing some of their critics. Foles is going to get his stats, but Stanford will get the win.

Five things to watch as the Stanford Cardinal travel to Tucson to take on Arizona in the Pac-12 opener.

• One dimension is better than two: Arizona has an extremely talented quarterback in Nick Foles. If you haven't heard, he's one of the most accurate passers in the country through two games. Arizona wants to run the ball better, but they are a passing team at heart. Stop the running attack early, and you force Foles to do it all by himself. That's a big chore, especially if his top receiver isn't playing. Keep an eye on his first-down passing. When Foles goes down the field for 20 yards or more on first down, he's completing 53.1 percent of his passes since the start of the 2010 season. That number drops to 24.1 percent on second and third down.

Luck targeting his tight ends

Most touchdown passes to tight ends since the start of the 2010 season

Player	TDs to TEs
Andrew Luck, Stanford	18
Kellen Moore, Boise State	9
Russell Wilson, Wisconsin	8
Landry Jones, Oklahoma	8
Nick Fanuzzi, Rice	8
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

• Keep them guessing: Stanford coach David Shaw wants, and has received to date, balance out of his offense. The Cardinal are a better team when they aren't married to one ideology. They want to control the tempo through power running, then pick the right time for a play-action shot down the field. Since the start of last year, quarterback Andrew Luck is completing 71.8 percent of his passes following play-action for 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
• Don't stop what works: When Luck does throw, especially for the end zone, chances are one of his tight ends will be in the mix. Five of his seven touchdown passes have been to either Coby Fleener or Zach Ertz. Their massive height differential gives Luck a bigger target and more room for error, not that he needs it.
• Watch out, secondary: Stanford's problem in the secondary isn't that they are giving up the big play. It's that they are creating the big play by missing tackles. It's been a point of emphasis the past two weeks, and co-defensive coordinator Derek Mason said the players are paying extra attention to tackling. Foles has six touchdowns and no interceptions, and he's only been sacked twice. Stanford's pass rush should get to him once or twice -- or at least make him uncomfortable. But he doesn't make many mistakes, so the secondary will have to play better than it has in the first two weeks.
• Stepfan, and plenty of him: Don't be shocked if running back Stepfan Taylor gets at least 20 carries this game. The Cardinal like to rotate their backs, but Taylor is the back that makes this team tick. Arizona ranks in the bottom half (67th) in rush defense, so they can be exploited on the ground. Shaw said he keeps waiting for his back to break a big one. Could happen Saturday.

PALO ALTO, Calif. -- This is the first real test of the season for the Stanford Cardinal -- and for my prediction skills. There are a lot of factors and elements to consider. Great quarterbacks. Hot weather. Late kickoff. Conference opener. But when push comes to shove, my gut tells me Stanford is the better overall team.

Prediction: Stanford 35, Arizona 24

Overall: 2-0

Why they'll win: It has a lot to do with quarterback Andrew Luck -- but not everything. The Arizona secondary has been suspect through two games. And there is no reason to think that Luck won't have the same success previous quarterbacks have had. Arizona also struggles with its running game. Add the No. 2 rushing defense in the country into the mix and the Wildcats have got trouble. Arizona quarterback Nick Foles has thrown the ball 93 times in two games. And when you go to the air that many times, more often than not, bad things are bound to happen. Stanford's ability to take away the run and force Foles into long third downs and unfavorable throwing conditions will be the difference.

Fear the tree(s): Coby Fleener (6-6), Zach Ertz (6-6) and Levine Toilolo (6-8) make up one of the best -- if not the best -- tight end corps in the nation. In Stanford's three tight-end sets, when at least one of them has single-coverage, there are few cornerbacks in the country that can defend against that. Luck has the uncanny ability to put the ball high where only his trees can get it.

Difference-maker: Stanford fans can just feel Chris Owusu is on the verge of doing something special -- be it at wide receiver or in the kicking game. He almost broke a kickoff return for a touchdown against San Jose State and almost had a long touchdown reception against Duke. This guy is about to do something big. If it comes this week against Arizona, it could tip the scales.

Out on a limb: Stepfan Taylor will get his first 100-yard rushing game of the season on Saturday. Stanford doesn't want to get sucked into a shootout and the offensive line wants to prove that it can be just as effective as last year's unit. While it's very possible that we could see 80-90 passes this game between Luck and Foles, I think Stanford will do the opposite and try to assert itself on the ground more than in the air.