ESPN College Football

Our Take Two topic this week: Which is the Pac-12's most dangerous trap game?

Kevin Gemmell: Since we're talking trap games this week -- and traps usually involve teams expected to do well -- I see a big one in Week 3 for the USC Trojans traveling north to Stanford.

This game has brought two of the Pac-12's most exciting matchups in consecutive years. There was the last-minute field goal in 2010 and the triple-overtime thriller at the Coliseum last season. No need to bring up the 55-21 game in 2009. It would be easy to assume that because Andrew Luck is gone, the Trojans will now roll over the Cardinal.

Maybe. USC, no doubt, will be highly ranked and heavily favored.

But the X-factor to this game is Stanford head coach David Shaw -- who is especially good at play calling against USC. You don't spend as much time on the offensive side of the ball in the NFL as Shaw did without learning a little something about the Tampa-2 defense, which USC is fond of running given that its defensive coordinator essentially invented it.

The Cardinal were the prickly splinter in USC's side during the Luck era. Luck was able to absorb Shaw's knowledge of USC's defense and they were able to go blow-for-blow with the Trojans. Shaw knows how to scheme against this team and Luck knew how to make that scheme a reality on the field. Although, who throws the Venus on Spider-3, Y-banana? Seriously.

But that era is over. And the Cardinal are going to make their living with a tough ground attack and a vicious front seven. I don't doubt USC's ability to move the ball. And if I'm a Stanford fan, I'm concerned about this becoming a high-scoring affair because the Cardinal have a young secondary and they don't have the horses to match the Trojans drive for drive.

I expect USC to be highly motivated for this game. Not only because of the past, but because of the future. The Stanford game marks the first of four straight tough games for the Trojans -- which is followed by Cal, Utah and Washington. Stubbing their toe early will certainly have ramifications for the rest of the season -- and the rest of the conference.

I don't think anyone will question that position-for-position, USC has more athletes than Stanford. But this will be the Trojans' first real mental test of the season. They'll be coming off an East Coast road trip and then have to go on the road again. Stanford Stadium isn't exactly the toughest venue in the conference, but it's not Disneyland, either. There will be a strong fan presence.

This season is going to be mentally taxing for the Trojans. A win at Stanford will be the first step over the psychological hump.

Ted Miller: One word: Arrrrrghhh!

Everyone knows Oregon's visit to USC on Nov. 3 could be epic. And I've already written about a potential trap game for the Ducks being their visit to California on Nov. 10, the weekend after The Weekend.

Ah, but here's a thought: Oregon has yet to face plant against an inferior team under Chip Kelly. The closest thing to that was a loss at Stanford in 2009, but that was a good Cardinal team.

And so we have the Ducks, almost certainly unbeaten and untested at 4-0, driving up to Seattle to take on Washington State in CenturyLink Field on Sept. 29. The Cougars also could be 4-0. And dangerous.

Fear the Pirate, Oregon. This game smacks of a "I'm baaaaack" opportunity for Mike Leach.

This will be the first road game for whomever wins the Ducks quarterback job. While it doesn't truly qualify as a home game for the Cougars, they should have a crowd advantage. More important, they will have a major experience advantage at QB with Jeff Tuel. Further, you might recall that Washington State played a competitive game in Autzen Stadium last year. The Cougars trailed only 15-10 at the half and actually outgained Oregon 463 yards to 456. It was 29-20 Ducks with four minutes left in the third before De'Anthony Thomas did his thing on a 93-yard kickoff return for a TD.

What happens if Leach's spread passing attack marries perfectly with Tuel and a deep crew of receivers against a Ducks secondary that is talented but still fairly young, particularly at cornerback? What happens if the Ducks offense, gulp, sputters with a young QB on the road?

A long shot, yes. Kelly's Ducks have been notably impressive with their ability to maintain focus each week the past three years. You know: A nameless faceless opponent each Saturday.

Only Leach isn't a nameless, faceless opponent. Everyone knows who he is. And he's tricky. And he's one coach who won't be outsmarted by Kelly.

At the very least, this one should be an interesting test for both teams. And the Cougs have a puncher's -- passer's? -- shot at pulling a shocker.

So where do things stand after spring practices and heading into the offseason? Let's see.

(You can check out our January power rankings here).

1. USC: The Trojans are expected to contend for the national title (typing that strikes up a not-unfamiliar feeling). Best starting 24 -- specialists included -- in conference and probably in the nation. Some nagging depth questions. Key is staying healthy, particularly on the lines and at running back.

2. Oregon: Marcus Mariota's spring performance made everyone forget Darron Thomas leaving early, even if it's uncertain Mariota will win the QB job over Bryan Bennett. Defense should be among the best in the conference. Ducks and Trojans meet in the Coliseum on Nov. 3. May be the national game of the year.

3. Stanford: There will be a drop-off post-Andrew Luck, but as long as the running game and front seven on defense remain intact, it won't be as severe as most think, especially since the Cardinal have the exact same schedule as last season.

4. Utah: Best defensive line in the conference. That alone should win the Utes a game or two. And it's good that QB Jordan Wynn is again healthy. Still, Utes need to beat the upper-echelon teams (and stop losing to the lower ones) to really show they have arrived in the conference.

5. Washington: Potentially strong on offense with QB Keith Price, but the line needs to get healthy, and you don't replace Chris Polk with RB-by-committee. The defense should be better with coordinator Justin Wilcox. Still, the power rankings are like Missouri: You've got to Show Me. And, gosh, that early-season schedule is BRUTAL.

6. California: QB Zach Maynard had a strong spring, according to coach Jeff Tedford. Pair that with an A-list receiver in Keenan Allen, good depth at running back and a potent defense, and the Bears could climb these rankings. Check that. Cal stinks. Turrible. There. That should help.

7. UCLA: There is enough overall speed and talent to make an impact for the "defending South champs." The new spread offense could be sneaky-good if the Bruins ever figure out who is going to run it. The switch to a 3-4 defense is a good move for the available talent.

8. Washington State: Of the four new coaches, it's Mike Leach who will probably have the biggest impact early on. Receiver might be the Cougars' deepest position, and quarterback Jeff Tuel can spread it around. Both lines are questions.

9. Oregon State: QB Sean Mannion should be better in his sophomore year, and he has some good targets, starting with Markus Wheaton. Solid at running back and in the secondary. But what about those lines? Really, the Beavers' getting back to a bowl game will end up being about the hogs stepping up.

10. Arizona: QB Matt Scott and the offense have a chance to be good in Year 1 with Rich Rodriguez, though Scott might not be able to run too much option because there's no backup QB. There's talent in the secondary, particularly if Jonathan McKnight comes back healthy in the fall after missing all of 2011 with a knee injury. But there are significant questions at linebacker. And who's going to rush the passer?

11. Arizona State: There's nice depth at running back, and the offensive line was solid during spring practices. The return of LB Brandon Magee will help the defense, as much for his positive leadership as his skill. But there's uncertainty at quarterback, receiver, linebacker and safety.

12. Colorado: The most crushing injury this spring was Buffaloes WR Paul Richardson blowing out his knee. On the plus side, the offensive line looks solid, and Tony Jones stepped up at running back. If everyone stays -- or gets -- healthy, the linebackers will be first-rate. And DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe could be a breakout player. But there are huge questions at receiver, on the defensive line and in the secondary. Colorado may play as many freshmen as any team in the country this year.

Three consecutive Heisman Trophy runners-up, two consecutive BCS bowl games and final top-10 rankings: Hey, Stanford's special run of football success was fun to watch. It was neat seeing the most academically elite university playing BCS football whipping the big boys.

But we all know it can't possibly last, right? Jim Harbaugh built it and he's gone. Andrew Luck was a once-in-a-generation quarterback, and he's gone. And he took with him three other offensive players among the first 42 selections in the NFL draft over the weekend.

While the Cardinal certainly had more than 15 minutes of fame, it's time for this program to go back to its familiar brainiac territory -- Faulkner, computer chips and advanced algorithms. Leave big-time football the USCs, Alabamas and Ohio States of the nation.

Yes, such talk has worked its way across the grid, onto the Farm and into the Stanford locker room.

"We've talked about that," coach David Shaw said. "But we've also talked about that there can't be anything outside of our meeting rooms that motivates us. The motivation has to come from within. It's the only way that it is real. The only way that it is legitimate. But we've heard it. We know where we're ranked. But preseason rankings don't matter. Postseason rankings do."

In other words, the Cardinal believe reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

"They said the same thing when Toby [Gerhart] left and when Harbaugh left," outside linebacker Chase Thomas said. "We're pretty confident. We know what we bring to the table."

Of course, things change. No team can easily replace four elite NFL draft picks from its offense. That's why Stanford may be more about defense in the early going of 2012. Thomas leads a crew of six returning starters from a unit that ranked among the nation's top 30 in both scoring and total defense. The Cardinal's front seven in their 3-4 scheme appears to be particularly strong. Few teams in the nation will be as deep at linebacker, with Thomas and inside linebacker Shayne Skov both rating as potential All-Americans.

But what about that offense? The competition to replace Luck wasn't resolved this spring, with neither Josh Nunes nor Brett Nottingham demonstrating much consistency. And whoever wins the job won't have tackle Jonathan Martin protecting his blind side, or guard David DeCastro grinding defensive linemen into hamburger, or tight end Coby Fleener sprinting open down the middle with his 6-foot-6 self.

"We will continue our commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage," coordinator Pep Hamilton said. "We're going to run power. I don't see us changing much. If anything, if we have a few more opportunities to run power, we'll do that."

That means leaning on running back Stepfan Taylor, who has rushed for 2,770 yards and 27 TDs over the previous three seasons, and a deep stable of backs. That means leaning on a tight end combination -- Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo -- that is as good as any in the nation, even without Fleener.

Receiver and offensive line? Those two spots remain questions, though the line will welcome back three starters.

Existing talent, however, doesn't tell the whole story of Stanford's potential for sustaining success. The incoming recruiting class is a significant chapter. Rivals ranked it fifth in the nation, Scout seventh and ESPN Recruiting 12th. No team in the nation came close to collecting as many elite offensive linemen: guard Joshua Garnett (Puyallup, Wash./Puyallup), Andrus Peat (Tempe, Ariz./Corona Del Sol) and offensive tackle Kyle Murphy (San Clemente, Calif./San Clemente).

Shaw isn't afraid to play the young guys, either. True freshmen will get opportunities on both sides of the ball, including the offensive line.

"There's a reason why we recruited a couple of big-timers at those positions," he said. "They will have an opportunity to play if not start at the left tackle position."

Instead of going away, Stanford may well have found a perfect formula that Harbaugh generated and Shaw has refined. Stanford has a lot to sell a certain type of athlete, one who is equal parts brains and brawn. Despite what many folks think about young athletes, there are plenty who want to challenge themselves intellectually before playing football on Sundays.

"This is a special place that attracts a certain kind of person," said Shaw, a former Stanford player himself. "The GPAs in this recruiting class are high, even positions where they are not always high. Our lowest receiver GPA is a 3.4. Not regular GPA, core GPA. These guys are good students and tough kids."

But how fast are they? A 3.4 is nice, but what about 4.4? The one thing that has held Stanford back is a lack of elite speed all over the field, particularly in the secondary and at receiver. Shaw said they "are getting closer" in terms of speed, but he also admitted that the Cardinal -- just like every other Pac-12 program -- have a bit of an Oregon problem. They are 23-1 versus everyone else over the past two seasons, outscoring those foes 1,024-405. Against the Ducks, Stanford is 0-2, outscored 105-61.

Does Stanford have an "Oregon problem?"

"That's a great question," Shaw said. "I'd like to have a survey on your website if anybody has some ideas. Chip [Kelly] does a phenomenal job."

While Shaw is said this in a good-humored way, it's clear that he and his coaches have spent plenty of time thinking about the Ducks. They recall beating them 51-42 in 2009, particularly how they handled the ebbs and flows of momentum. They know it's about preventing big plays and not wasting opportunities on offense. They know it's about tempo, a pitched battle of contrasting styles. Oregon wants to play fast and slash you. Stanford wants to slow things down and pound you.

At least one insider believes Stanford will sustain its recent run of success.

"Absolutely. Hopefully they do better than we did," Luck said. "I think there are a lot of great players here, starting at the top with the coaching staff. Great players, great recruiting classes. They will only continue to get better."

As for what Stanford will be in 2012, its first season of the post-Luck era, Shaw thinks his team will have the same tough-guy persona. But it'll be angrier.

"We're going to go right at people and hit them in the mouth," he said. "And it helps to feel like you're disrespected."

Stanford's secondary is going to be young next season. Not exactly breaking news, but that's the reality when four seniors, three of them starters, graduate. But the players returning also have some experience and quality playing time, which should help compensate for their youth.

In other words, there no excuses.

"I think [defensive coordinator Derek] Mason might have been a little more tolerant with us last year, a little more patient," said safety Jordan Richards. "Not anymore. We've all been here and have a full season under our belts. This is on us -- and coach Mason is making sure we know that."

The back four -- two cornerbacks and two safeties -- have to be getting tired of hearing how good the front seven is going to be. They are so experienced. This guy is back and that guy is back. It gets old. And if the front seven is considered Stanford's defensive strength, by virtue of elimination, the back four can't be.

That perception is something the group is looking to alter. But first they'll need to settle some competition. Gone are safeties Delano Howell and Michael Thomas. Gone are cornerbacks Johnson Bademosi and Corey Gatewood.

Terrence Brown and Barry Browning are back at cornerback, along with the highly-touted Wayne Lyons who is returning from a foot injury. Usua Amanam should also be in the mix and don't be surprised if Alex Carter makes an immediate impact when he arrives in the summer. Also returning are Richards and Devon Carrington at the safety spot along with Ed Reynolds, who is also returning from injury. Kyle Olugbode has also seen reps this spring.

Richards was one of the true freshman called into action when Howell went down for several games with a hand injury. He started three games for Stanford last year -- the most brutal stretch of the season that included at USC, at Oregon State and home to Oregon. Tough detail.

"It was, at times, a blur," Richards said. "And other times, I felt like I was in control and the game slowed."

The telling part of that quote is the "at times" portion. Richards notched eight tackles in his first start against USC. Then a couple of games later he watched Oregon run all over the Cardinal. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. In his second year, he's striving for more consistency. And having had the chance to learn behind Thomas and Howell, he thinks he's found it.

"I learned how to see the game from those guys," Richards said. "As a freshman, you come in with tunnel vision. You need to learn to see how things move around. Now it's a transition. You've been here for a year, you learn to read formational cues and the game slows down a lot more. You know what the offensive tendencies are. That's the biggest difference. You're not a deer in the headlights anymore. You just go out and play and try not to over think it."

Brown has the most experience at cornerback, followed by Browning who started three games last season. According to Richards, Brown and Reynolds have taken on the leadership roles vacated by the departed seniors.

"As a group, it's been TB and Ed," Richards said. "Those guys have been around. But we all know what's at stake, and we're all trying to be leaders and be on our game as a group because we know that we are going to be young and people are going to try to come after us."

Like in Week 3, when the Cardinal host USC -- a pass happy offense with the Heisman front-runner at quarterback, the top wide receiving duo in the country and possibly the No. 1-ranked team in the nation. So this group is going to have to find a way to come together quickly.

"That's what the spring is all about," Richards said. "We're working hard to be a cohesive group. Coach Mason is pushing us and I think we're going to come together."

Is David Shaw one of the top two or three coaches in the Pac-12? No.

How about top five? Nope.

Top half? Top 8? Negative.

Not if you buy the recent rankings by Athlon Sports, which has Shaw as the No. 9 rated coach in the Pac-12 conference.

Before we dive into that, let's review the list:

1. Chip Kelly, Oregon
2. Lane Kiffin, USC
3. Mike Leach, Washington State
4. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
5. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
6. Steve Sarkisian, Washington
7. Mike Riley, Oregon State
8. Jeff Tedford, Cal
9. David Shaw, Stanford
10. Todd Graham, Arizona State
11. Jim Mora, UCLA
12. Jon Embree, Colorado

No doubt, Kelly belongs at the top. If anyone wants to make an argument for anyone else -- I'd love to hear it. Kelly is clearly the top coach in the conference.

But it starts to get muddled after No. 1. When I first saw the headline, my initial thought for Shaw was in two-three-four range. But as I kept scrolling down, I was pretty surprised to see him at No. 9.

The biggest argument against Shaw is that he doesn't have a body of work yet as a head coach. It seems like the question mark from the Athlon folks is that they don't know what Shaw can do without a Harbaugh or a Luck next to his name.

There is much to like about Shaw and there is much that is still unknown. This fall will feature the first in Palo Alto without a Harbaugh or a Luck on the roster and it falls to Shaw to maintain an unprecedented level of success. Jim Harbaugh deserves all of the credit for re-establishing the Cardinal brand nationwide and developing Andrew Luck into the best player in the nation the last two years. Replacing two first-round offensive linemen will also be an issue for Stanford in 2012. Shaw is steeped in Stanford tradition as a player and son of a coach for the Cardinal, but legacy alone won’t keep Shaw in Bob Bowlsby’s good graces. This is one name that could be ranked much higher (or lower) on this list come next offseason.

I think it's a bit of a sweeping statement to say Harbaugh deserves all of the credit. Shaw, after all, played a huge role in recruiting Luck. He also recruited a large portion of Harbaugh's players and ran Harbaugh's offense for four seasons. And he's the reigning Pac-12 Coach of the Year. Doesn't that count for anything?

As fate would have it, I was plugging away at this post yesterday afternoon when my cell rang and Shaw's picture appeared. After we got done swapping stock tips and talking about which Hunger Games characters we were going to dress as for the big premier, I figured it was worth asking his opinion on such polls and how he felt about his ninth-ranked status.

"No reaction at all," said Shaw, never one for chest-puffing. "I have no problem with that. I'm a one-year head coach and a lot of people attribute the team's success to Andrew -- justifiably so. A lot of people attribute it to Jim Harbaugh. Me, honestly, that's fine. As long as Bob Bowlsby likes the job that I'm doing and I can keep this job -- hopefully for the next 15-20 years -- I can be the last-ranked coach as long as we keep winning games and going to bowl games, I'm fine.

"Rankings don't win games."

Shaw has an NFL pedigree that few coaches on this list can match. I'm not saying he should be No. 2. You can make arguments, I think, for Shaw, Leach, Whittingham or Kiffin in the No. 2 spot. And they would all have merit. (I'm actually leaning toward Whittingham, having seen his success over the years during my time covering the Mountain West).

But when you consider the recruiting class Shaw brought in this year -- which had absolutely nothing to do with Harbaugh or Luck -- and the way he schemed the offense this season to compensate for a lack of overwhelming wide receiver talent, you have to think that warrants more than being the No. 9 guy in the conference. Think of the triple-tight formations and the plays with eight offensive linemen. Pretty innovative stuff.

Consider some of the immeasurables that Shaw was dealing with this season. He had a glaring spotlight already with the departure of Harbaugh and the return of Luck. He had to replace three offensive linemen with first-year starters, had a shaky receiving corps and had to fill both coordinator spots. The dice were equally loaded for success or failure. It's too dismissive to say he was just riding the coattails of Harbaugh and Luck because Shaw's fingerprints were all over the 2011 team. And give credit to the rest of his staff. Shaw brought in Mike Bloomgren, Jason Tarver, Ron Crook and Mike Sanford -- all of whom were major contributors to the team's success. Hiring solid coaches is an important element that often gets overlooked.

Was he perfect? Nope. Not even close. Find me a coach who is. I'll wait ... ... ... I can count on one hand the number of times I questioned a Shaw decision or play call.

I like Shaw's demeanor -- calm most of the time but fiery when he has to be. I like the pro-style, balanced approach to offense, and I like how he's a tireless advocate for his players.

All of the above don't make Shaw the No. 1 coach in the conference. But it doesn't make him No. 9, either.

Which QB should go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft on April 26?

Forget the NFL scouts and GMs: You decide whether Stanford's Andrew Luck or Baylor's Robert Griffin III looks better at his pro day in front of salivating NFL personnel men.

You can watch Griffin's pro day at Baylor on Wednesday at noon ET, live on ESPN3.

And you can watch Luck on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET, live on ESPN3 as well.

While it's widely viewed as a lock that Luck goes first, it nonetheless will be interesting to see if one or the other earns a better grade for his accuracy and arm strength after neither threw for scouts at the combine.

With the combine completed, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have updated their respective rankings and boards. Kiper also offers his winners from the combine and those leaving us with questions.

Some of the Pac-12 winners include LaMichael James (Oregon, RB), Coby Fleener (Stanford, TE) and Matt Kalil (USC, OT).

If Fleener runs in the 4.5 range at his pro day, he could be in the first round. The Giants make sense. He is now an option as the first tight end off the board.

Question mark players include Vontaze Burfict (ASU, LB), Cliff Harris (Oregon, DB) and Marc Tyler (USC, RB).

(On Burfict) He already carries attitude questions, and Burfict needed to turn heads with workouts. Heads were turned, but for the wrong reason. He looked sluggish, to put it mildly. Once a first-round guy, he could be in the middle rounds if he doesn't recover.

Yikes.

Kiper also updated his top five players by position. The conference is well represented with Andrew Luck (Stanford, QB), James, Rhett Ellison (USC, FB), Fleener, Kalil, Jonathan Martin (Stanford, OT), David DeCastro (Stanford, OG), Burfict and Bryan Anger (Cal, P) and appearing in the top three of their respective position groups.

Finally, the rankings. No shock that Kiper and McShay both have Luck as the No. 1 overall pick. Here's McShay's take:

Luck's combine workout showed he is more athletic than most thought, and combined with his once-in-a-generation skill set he appears to be a lock as the No. 1 overall pick to the Colts.

Other conference players appearing in McShay's top 32 are Kalil, DeCastro, Martin and Brock Osweiler (ASU, QB).

While McShay ranks Robert Griffin III second, Kiper has Kalil in the No. 2 spot.

Kalil confirmed that he is a good athlete for his position. The tape is great, and it's hard to see him falling outside the top five. The plus for him is he might not need time to develop at right tackle, a common break-in spot for many left tackles.

Quarterback competitions are going to be all the rage in the Pac-12 this spring and heading up until the start of the 2012 season opener. Stanford and Oregon will be losing tremendous productivity from outgoing signal-callers Andrew Luck and Darron Thomas.

Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders looked at which quarterback competition battles matter most nationally -- and Stanford and Oregon were right there in the mix.

The article has some interesting stats about which quarterback-reliant teams had a harder time adjusting -- looking specifically at the 2009 and 2010 seasons -- and which ones had easier transitions because the offense didn't rely as heavily on the quarterback spot.

Baylor tops the list as having the most critical quarterback transition -- with Robert Griffin III accounting for 65.4 percent of the Bears' offense.

Here's Fremeau on Stanford and Luck, who accounted for 57.6 percent of the Cardinal offense last season.

[Luck's] contribution to Stanford's total offense falls between the heavy production and light production range, however, and the offense under David Shaw can still be successful, since it is powered by a strong ground game as much as it was by Luck's arm.

Oregon falls under the rating of "less critical QB transitions" with Thomas accounting for 40.5 percent of the Ducks' offense. Fremeau on Oregon:

The Ducks have had sustained success over the last few years, precisely because they distribute the ball to an arsenal of offensive weapons and don't lean too heavily on the quarterback. The Ducks ranked fourth nationally in total offense but didn't have a single individual player rank among the top 50 nationally in total offense last season.

Going to Stanford doesn't prevent you from doing stupid things. So we have Cardinal linebacker Shayne Skov, who was arrested and jailed last weekend for driving under the influence.

The Stanford Daily, which first reported the arrest, said Skov "was transported to the San Jose main jail and booked for driving under the influence at 2 a.m. Sunday." He was pulled over in the parking lot of his dormitory.

It will be interesting to see how Stanford handles this. It seems like a serious but isolated incident. Skov is a good student, NFL prospect and a great team leader. If healthy, he likely would rate as the top returning inside linebacker in the Pac-12.

But he's not irreplaceable. Stanford knows this because it played solid defense even after he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the season's third game at Arizona. Skov is still not 100 percent and is not expected to see much action in spring practice.

Of course, with Skov, the Cardinal's 3-4 defense is much better than without him, even with plenty of depth at the position.

"We have an expected standard of excellence and conduct for our players and Shayne failed to adhere to those standards," Stanford coach David Shaw said in a statement released through a team spokesman. "It's a matter we are taking very seriously. Shayne will be responsible to adhere to any legal responsibilities regarding this event along with ramifications which will be determined by the program."

That means the ice under Skov's cleats is thin. The Cardinal open the 2012 season against San Jose State and then play host to Duke. They won't need Skov to win those games, if Shaw opts to suspend him.

But USC comes a-calling in Week 3. Skov's presence would certainly come in handy against Matt Barkley & Co.

Getting a signature from D-lineman Aziz Shittu topped a big national signing day for Stanford, which is challenging USC for the top class in the Pac-12.

Shittu (Atwater, Calif./Buhach Colony) picked the Cardinal over USC, UCLA and California.

In other news:

• QB Cyler Miles flirted with USC but remained true to his commitment to Washington.
• The Huskies also managed to flip athlete Cleveland Wallace (San Jose, Calif./Oak Grove) from Oregon State.
• CB Bryan Harper signed with Arizona, picking the Wildcats over Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA and Washington.
• Athlete Kenneth Walker (Richmond, Calif./Kennedy) picked UCLA over California and Washington.

Who are the potential breakout running backs in 2012? Glad you asked, because ESPN's KC Joyner tackled that very question and a pair of Pac-12 running backs landed on his top five list .

USC running back Curtis McNeal checks in at No. 1 overall. With a moderate strength of schedule and four returning offensive linemen, here's what Joyner had to say about McNeal:

Losing first-round NFL draft pick Matt Kalil at left tackle is a negative, but getting the other four starting offensive linemen back means the quality portion of these numbers can be replicated. And since McNeal is likely to get a significant portion of the 125 carries Marc Tyler (lost to graduation) posted last season, it means McNeal's chances of getting an increased quantity of carries are also quite strong.

Not far behind McNeal in the No. 3 spot is Oregon running back Kenjon Barner, who is expected to have three of his big men back in front of him next season.

Here's Joyner's take:

The Ducks' run-blocking win rate was also quite impressive, so much so that Barner would likely have ranked higher than this were it not for Oregon losing two starting offensive linemen to graduation. Losing quarterback Darron Thomas also could cause some early transition issues, even though Bryan Bennett, Thomas' likely replacement, should be able to put together a strong season.

And even though he's not on Joyner's list, I'm going to throw Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor in there as well. Maybe I'm biased because I'm the Stanford blogger. Or maybe it's that the guy has rushed for back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons while in a four-back rotating system and no one outside of Palo Alto seems to recognize the skills. (Actually, five backs when you consider Stanford's use of the fullback.)

Granted, this list is "breakout" backs. But Taylor's contributions continually seem to get overlooked. So much so that every year it feels like he has to have another "breakout" season just to get recognition. So keep an eye on that guy also in 2012.

Stanford wants to be a physical football team with a rugged running game. It just picked up a piece that can make that happen.

Offensive lineman Joshua Garnett (Puyallup, Wash./Puyallup) has picked Stanford over Michigan.

“I love the strength and conditioning program and I’ve seen firsthand how much bigger and stronger the Stanford players get," he told ESPN Recruiting's Greg Biggins. "I knew David DeCastro in high school and he was always strong but now he’s benching over 500 pounds and is an absolute beast, that's how I want to be.”

The 6-foot-5, 285 pounder is consider the top prospect in the state of Washington. He's ranked No. 44 overall on the ESPNU 150.

Garnett is the 5th offensive line commitment for the Cardinal and they’re in the running for two more elite linemen: Kyle Murphy (San Clemente, Calif./San Clemente) and Andrus Peat (Tempe, Ariz./Corona del Sol), who will both announce on signing day. Murphy is ranked 27th on the ESPNU 150 and Peat ninth.

And, yes, signing three of the nation's top-45 offensive linemen would be impressive — and would raise an eyebrow or two among 2013 QB and RB recruits.

Let's face it, you're not going to find a bunch of underachievers at Stanford. So it makes sense that Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders dubbed the Cardinal one of five recruiting overachievers over the last few years.

Fremeau looked at the last five seasons and compared teams with higher-rated recruiting classes against the rest of the field. Interestingly enough, teams with the "better" recruiting classes won 67 percent of the time. But five teams with less heralded recruits bucked that trend. Stanford being one of them.

Writes Fremeau: The Cardinal lead all teams in victories (29 wins since 2007) over the last five seasons in games in which they had a recruiting disadvantage. Of those 29 wins, 22 have come in the last three seasons with quarterback Andrew Luck at the helm. Luck was a highly touted quarterback coming out of high school (he ranked seventh among QBs nationally and 61st overall in the ESPNU 150), and he's the most significant reason for Stanford's meteoric rise over the last few years.

But former coach Jim Harbaugh also developed unheralded talent to build the program, and current head coach David Shaw kept that train rolling this past season. The recent success has helped Stanford produce several of its strongest recruiting classes in the last few seasons, but once Luck departs, will that overachieving tradition depart, too? Stanford will continue to play annual games against the Oregon Ducks, USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, along with several other Pac-12 foes, in which it will have a decided disadvantage in terms of recruiting ratings.

The other four teams to make Fremeau's list are Cincinnati, Boise State, Baylor and Oregon State.

But that trend might be changing. The Cardinal have a Top 20 recruiting class in the works, headlined by three players on the ESPNU 150 list. They are still in the hunt for several big-name players -- including three of the nation's top prep offensive linemen. If the Cardinal can close the deal on some of those players in the next week, it could propel them into a Top 15, maybe even Top 10 class. This year's group is already on pace to be one of the top classes in school history.

TJ in San Francisco writes: (Regarding Darron Thomas is leaving early). I think most of us (including me) had chalked up next year's game at Oregon as a loss... what do you think our chances of beating them are now? Should we be more worried about Oregon or Washington in the Pac 12 North?

Kevin Gemmell: If I can steal an old cliché that's pretty popular around The Farm, worry about yourselves, not the other guys. Worry about who is going to play the two safety spots and who will make the defensive calls against the Ducks, not who is under center or in their backfield. Oregon has plenty of firepower -- and will for the foreseeable future. Are they any more vulnerable without Thomas? Maybe. Just as Stanford is more vulnerable without Andrew Luck. And yes, I think Washington is also a big concern -- especially since that is a road game next year with a new starting quarterback for Stanford. If Keith Price continues to mature at the rate he's going, Washington will be a player in the North.

---

Tyler in "The District" writes: Hey Kevin. If the Heisman trophy voting happened today, would Robert Griffin III still win? To me, it seems that some voters may have previously voted erroneously; more in tune with a fad than sound judgment. Now that time has passed, would voters sober up from the intoxicating RG3 performance against the Longhorns? (By the way, Texas isn't what they used to be and no one seems to care.) Or would they vote for a guy like Luck who wasn't losing 49-3 against Okie State? PS: Don't try to say that RG3's bowl game performance means anything. The convoy of moving trucks in Seattle this past month aren't there because of RG3.

Kevin Gemmell: Tyler, I've long held the belief that Heisman voting should be done after the bowl season. Just a personal opinion. With that said, did anything change in the bowl season that would make you think people who were going to vote for Griffin are suddenly going to change their vote? The fact is, those who wanted to vote for Griffin did, and the people that wanted to vote for Luck did. RG3 didn't do anything to "lose" votes. Maybe Luck would have picked up a few more votes from those who voted for Montee Ball or Trent Richardson or Tyrann Mathieu based on his bowl performance. It was pretty darn good. But RG3's wasn't exactly horrific -- and his team won. I don't think anyone who voted for Griffin is suddenly feeling like they blew it. Time to let this one go.

---

Kory in Hillsborough, Calif., writes: Any word as to why Coby Fleener and Delano Howell declined their Senior Bowl invitations? I hope they weren't scared to compete because that completely goes against the Stanford football we've come to know.

Kevin Gemmell: No official word, so this is just me speculating. First, both were pretty banged up toward the end of the year. Howell, you'll remember, missed a lot of time due to that hand injury and Fleener's ankle looked like it had a softball sticking out of it after the Fiesta Bowl (he missed the fourth quarter). Both of them have enough of their resumes on film that I don't think one game would make a difference either way. That's my best guess.

---

Sean in Palo Alto, Calif., writes: You gave Stanford a B+ in the Pac-12 report card. Explain yourself.

Kevin Gemmell: Well, Sean, I'm assuming you think the grade should be higher. Let's look at the facts. They didn't win their conference, that right there drops them from an A to an A-. They didn't win their bowl game. That should drop them down as well. I gave the offense an A- and the defense a B. Average that together and you come out with a B+. Don't think that was too harsh of a grade.

Well, apparently I rattled up quite the hornet's nest a couple of days ago in the mailbag by taking the under in a reader question wanting to know my opinion on the over/under for 8.5 for wins for Stanford next season.

Most seemed to think I was being too harsh and that nine or 10 wins were more likely than the seven or eight wins I'm forecasting. (This total doesn't include a bowl game, mind you).

OK, I'm not afraid to show my work on a way-too-early analysis of each game. Naturally, this is based off the personnel we know is available, the assumption there are no catastrophic injuries and little more than gut feelings.

• Sept. 1 vs. San Jose State: Cardinal will be multi-touchdown favorites and will cruise behind a monster running attack. Good game for the new signal caller to get his feet wet. Win (1-0).
• Sept. 8. vs. Duke: Offense won't be as vanilla as the week before as they start adding new elements for the first-year starting quarterback. There will be a couple of mistakes, but Geoff Meinken will stiff-arm the Cardinal to a comfortable victory. Win (2-0).
• Sept. 15 vs. USC: I don't see this as a blowout that some seem to think it will be. The Cardinal will control the clock with the rushing attack and David Shaw has always been a very good play-caller against USC. But the Matt Barkley-led Trojans finally get a win over Stanford. Loss (2-1).
• Sept. 22 Bye: Good time to recover from first loss of the year and prep for first road trip of the season.
• Sept 27 at Washington: What? You mean we have to play outside of California? Tough place to play and Keith Price is only getting better. Maybe the Huskies will have some defense to speak of? No Chris Polk hurts, but the Cardinal still won't be able to keep up. The one thing that might sway this is Stanford coming out of the bye week. But I wouldn't expect 446 rushing yards this time around. Loss (2-2).
• Oct. 6 vs. Arizona: Students are finally back on campus and realize there is a football game. Not sure what to make of the Rich Rodriguez Wildcats yet, but Stanford should be the better team and getting Arizona earlier in the season is always helpful when a new coaching staff is involved. Win (3-2).
• Oct. 13 at Notre Dame: I'm expecting the Irish to have their third quarterback controversy of the season by this point. Stepfan Taylor has a huge game on the road and continues to be the most underrated running back in the conference. Cardinal pull this one out. Win (4-2).
• Oct. 20 at Cal: A Big Game before Halloween? Spooky. New quarterbacks are always good for at least one road loss in games they are favored to win. Given the magnitude of this game, this might be that one. Loss (4-3).
• Oct. 27 vs. Washington State: Cougars throw for 400 yards, but Cardinal score more points. Win (5-3).
• Nov. 3 at Colorado: Buffs still not ready to make a move. Cardinal cruise. Win (6-3).
• Nov. 10 vs. Oregon State: With bowl eligibility locked up, the Cardinal are looking to improve their postseason status. Whoever is playing quarterback has the offense figured out and Taylor will surpass the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year. Should be a great way to honor him on senior night. But this could also be a trap game. OSU played a lot of youth last season that has to grow up sometime. Win (7-3).
• Nov. 17 at Oregon: Yeah ... not going to happen. Loss (7-4).
• Nov. 24 at UCLA: I think this could be a swing game for both teams. But my best guess is UCLA is still a year away from making real noise. Win (8-4).