ESPN College Football

Our Take Two topic this week: Which is the Pac-12's most dangerous trap game?

Kevin Gemmell: Since we're talking trap games this week -- and traps usually involve teams expected to do well -- I see a big one in Week 3 for the USC Trojans traveling north to Stanford.

This game has brought two of the Pac-12's most exciting matchups in consecutive years. There was the last-minute field goal in 2010 and the triple-overtime thriller at the Coliseum last season. No need to bring up the 55-21 game in 2009. It would be easy to assume that because Andrew Luck is gone, the Trojans will now roll over the Cardinal.

Maybe. USC, no doubt, will be highly ranked and heavily favored.

But the X-factor to this game is Stanford head coach David Shaw -- who is especially good at play calling against USC. You don't spend as much time on the offensive side of the ball in the NFL as Shaw did without learning a little something about the Tampa-2 defense, which USC is fond of running given that its defensive coordinator essentially invented it.

The Cardinal were the prickly splinter in USC's side during the Luck era. Luck was able to absorb Shaw's knowledge of USC's defense and they were able to go blow-for-blow with the Trojans. Shaw knows how to scheme against this team and Luck knew how to make that scheme a reality on the field. Although, who throws the Venus on Spider-3, Y-banana? Seriously.

But that era is over. And the Cardinal are going to make their living with a tough ground attack and a vicious front seven. I don't doubt USC's ability to move the ball. And if I'm a Stanford fan, I'm concerned about this becoming a high-scoring affair because the Cardinal have a young secondary and they don't have the horses to match the Trojans drive for drive.

I expect USC to be highly motivated for this game. Not only because of the past, but because of the future. The Stanford game marks the first of four straight tough games for the Trojans -- which is followed by Cal, Utah and Washington. Stubbing their toe early will certainly have ramifications for the rest of the season -- and the rest of the conference.

I don't think anyone will question that position-for-position, USC has more athletes than Stanford. But this will be the Trojans' first real mental test of the season. They'll be coming off an East Coast road trip and then have to go on the road again. Stanford Stadium isn't exactly the toughest venue in the conference, but it's not Disneyland, either. There will be a strong fan presence.

This season is going to be mentally taxing for the Trojans. A win at Stanford will be the first step over the psychological hump.

Ted Miller: One word: Arrrrrghhh!

Everyone knows Oregon's visit to USC on Nov. 3 could be epic. And I've already written about a potential trap game for the Ducks being their visit to California on Nov. 10, the weekend after The Weekend.

Ah, but here's a thought: Oregon has yet to face plant against an inferior team under Chip Kelly. The closest thing to that was a loss at Stanford in 2009, but that was a good Cardinal team.

And so we have the Ducks, almost certainly unbeaten and untested at 4-0, driving up to Seattle to take on Washington State in CenturyLink Field on Sept. 29. The Cougars also could be 4-0. And dangerous.

Fear the Pirate, Oregon. This game smacks of a "I'm baaaaack" opportunity for Mike Leach.

This will be the first road game for whomever wins the Ducks quarterback job. While it doesn't truly qualify as a home game for the Cougars, they should have a crowd advantage. More important, they will have a major experience advantage at QB with Jeff Tuel. Further, you might recall that Washington State played a competitive game in Autzen Stadium last year. The Cougars trailed only 15-10 at the half and actually outgained Oregon 463 yards to 456. It was 29-20 Ducks with four minutes left in the third before De'Anthony Thomas did his thing on a 93-yard kickoff return for a TD.

What happens if Leach's spread passing attack marries perfectly with Tuel and a deep crew of receivers against a Ducks secondary that is talented but still fairly young, particularly at cornerback? What happens if the Ducks offense, gulp, sputters with a young QB on the road?

A long shot, yes. Kelly's Ducks have been notably impressive with their ability to maintain focus each week the past three years. You know: A nameless faceless opponent each Saturday.

Only Leach isn't a nameless, faceless opponent. Everyone knows who he is. And he's tricky. And he's one coach who won't be outsmarted by Kelly.

At the very least, this one should be an interesting test for both teams. And the Cougs have a puncher's -- passer's? -- shot at pulling a shocker.

So where do things stand after spring practices and heading into the offseason? Let's see.

(You can check out our January power rankings here).

1. USC: The Trojans are expected to contend for the national title (typing that strikes up a not-unfamiliar feeling). Best starting 24 -- specialists included -- in conference and probably in the nation. Some nagging depth questions. Key is staying healthy, particularly on the lines and at running back.

2. Oregon: Marcus Mariota's spring performance made everyone forget Darron Thomas leaving early, even if it's uncertain Mariota will win the QB job over Bryan Bennett. Defense should be among the best in the conference. Ducks and Trojans meet in the Coliseum on Nov. 3. May be the national game of the year.

3. Stanford: There will be a drop-off post-Andrew Luck, but as long as the running game and front seven on defense remain intact, it won't be as severe as most think, especially since the Cardinal have the exact same schedule as last season.

4. Utah: Best defensive line in the conference. That alone should win the Utes a game or two. And it's good that QB Jordan Wynn is again healthy. Still, Utes need to beat the upper-echelon teams (and stop losing to the lower ones) to really show they have arrived in the conference.

5. Washington: Potentially strong on offense with QB Keith Price, but the line needs to get healthy, and you don't replace Chris Polk with RB-by-committee. The defense should be better with coordinator Justin Wilcox. Still, the power rankings are like Missouri: You've got to Show Me. And, gosh, that early-season schedule is BRUTAL.

6. California: QB Zach Maynard had a strong spring, according to coach Jeff Tedford. Pair that with an A-list receiver in Keenan Allen, good depth at running back and a potent defense, and the Bears could climb these rankings. Check that. Cal stinks. Turrible. There. That should help.

7. UCLA: There is enough overall speed and talent to make an impact for the "defending South champs." The new spread offense could be sneaky-good if the Bruins ever figure out who is going to run it. The switch to a 3-4 defense is a good move for the available talent.

8. Washington State: Of the four new coaches, it's Mike Leach who will probably have the biggest impact early on. Receiver might be the Cougars' deepest position, and quarterback Jeff Tuel can spread it around. Both lines are questions.

9. Oregon State: QB Sean Mannion should be better in his sophomore year, and he has some good targets, starting with Markus Wheaton. Solid at running back and in the secondary. But what about those lines? Really, the Beavers' getting back to a bowl game will end up being about the hogs stepping up.

10. Arizona: QB Matt Scott and the offense have a chance to be good in Year 1 with Rich Rodriguez, though Scott might not be able to run too much option because there's no backup QB. There's talent in the secondary, particularly if Jonathan McKnight comes back healthy in the fall after missing all of 2011 with a knee injury. But there are significant questions at linebacker. And who's going to rush the passer?

11. Arizona State: There's nice depth at running back, and the offensive line was solid during spring practices. The return of LB Brandon Magee will help the defense, as much for his positive leadership as his skill. But there's uncertainty at quarterback, receiver, linebacker and safety.

12. Colorado: The most crushing injury this spring was Buffaloes WR Paul Richardson blowing out his knee. On the plus side, the offensive line looks solid, and Tony Jones stepped up at running back. If everyone stays -- or gets -- healthy, the linebackers will be first-rate. And DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe could be a breakout player. But there are huge questions at receiver, on the defensive line and in the secondary. Colorado may play as many freshmen as any team in the country this year.

Three consecutive Heisman Trophy runners-up, two consecutive BCS bowl games and final top-10 rankings: Hey, Stanford's special run of football success was fun to watch. It was neat seeing the most academically elite university playing BCS football whipping the big boys.

But we all know it can't possibly last, right? Jim Harbaugh built it and he's gone. Andrew Luck was a once-in-a-generation quarterback, and he's gone. And he took with him three other offensive players among the first 42 selections in the NFL draft over the weekend.

While the Cardinal certainly had more than 15 minutes of fame, it's time for this program to go back to its familiar brainiac territory -- Faulkner, computer chips and advanced algorithms. Leave big-time football the USCs, Alabamas and Ohio States of the nation.

Yes, such talk has worked its way across the grid, onto the Farm and into the Stanford locker room.

"We've talked about that," coach David Shaw said. "But we've also talked about that there can't be anything outside of our meeting rooms that motivates us. The motivation has to come from within. It's the only way that it is real. The only way that it is legitimate. But we've heard it. We know where we're ranked. But preseason rankings don't matter. Postseason rankings do."

In other words, the Cardinal believe reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

"They said the same thing when Toby [Gerhart] left and when Harbaugh left," outside linebacker Chase Thomas said. "We're pretty confident. We know what we bring to the table."

Of course, things change. No team can easily replace four elite NFL draft picks from its offense. That's why Stanford may be more about defense in the early going of 2012. Thomas leads a crew of six returning starters from a unit that ranked among the nation's top 30 in both scoring and total defense. The Cardinal's front seven in their 3-4 scheme appears to be particularly strong. Few teams in the nation will be as deep at linebacker, with Thomas and inside linebacker Shayne Skov both rating as potential All-Americans.

But what about that offense? The competition to replace Luck wasn't resolved this spring, with neither Josh Nunes nor Brett Nottingham demonstrating much consistency. And whoever wins the job won't have tackle Jonathan Martin protecting his blind side, or guard David DeCastro grinding defensive linemen into hamburger, or tight end Coby Fleener sprinting open down the middle with his 6-foot-6 self.

"We will continue our commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage," coordinator Pep Hamilton said. "We're going to run power. I don't see us changing much. If anything, if we have a few more opportunities to run power, we'll do that."

That means leaning on running back Stepfan Taylor, who has rushed for 2,770 yards and 27 TDs over the previous three seasons, and a deep stable of backs. That means leaning on a tight end combination -- Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo -- that is as good as any in the nation, even without Fleener.

Receiver and offensive line? Those two spots remain questions, though the line will welcome back three starters.

Existing talent, however, doesn't tell the whole story of Stanford's potential for sustaining success. The incoming recruiting class is a significant chapter. Rivals ranked it fifth in the nation, Scout seventh and ESPN Recruiting 12th. No team in the nation came close to collecting as many elite offensive linemen: guard Joshua Garnett (Puyallup, Wash./Puyallup), Andrus Peat (Tempe, Ariz./Corona Del Sol) and offensive tackle Kyle Murphy (San Clemente, Calif./San Clemente).

Shaw isn't afraid to play the young guys, either. True freshmen will get opportunities on both sides of the ball, including the offensive line.

"There's a reason why we recruited a couple of big-timers at those positions," he said. "They will have an opportunity to play if not start at the left tackle position."

Instead of going away, Stanford may well have found a perfect formula that Harbaugh generated and Shaw has refined. Stanford has a lot to sell a certain type of athlete, one who is equal parts brains and brawn. Despite what many folks think about young athletes, there are plenty who want to challenge themselves intellectually before playing football on Sundays.

"This is a special place that attracts a certain kind of person," said Shaw, a former Stanford player himself. "The GPAs in this recruiting class are high, even positions where they are not always high. Our lowest receiver GPA is a 3.4. Not regular GPA, core GPA. These guys are good students and tough kids."

But how fast are they? A 3.4 is nice, but what about 4.4? The one thing that has held Stanford back is a lack of elite speed all over the field, particularly in the secondary and at receiver. Shaw said they "are getting closer" in terms of speed, but he also admitted that the Cardinal -- just like every other Pac-12 program -- have a bit of an Oregon problem. They are 23-1 versus everyone else over the past two seasons, outscoring those foes 1,024-405. Against the Ducks, Stanford is 0-2, outscored 105-61.

Does Stanford have an "Oregon problem?"

"That's a great question," Shaw said. "I'd like to have a survey on your website if anybody has some ideas. Chip [Kelly] does a phenomenal job."

While Shaw is said this in a good-humored way, it's clear that he and his coaches have spent plenty of time thinking about the Ducks. They recall beating them 51-42 in 2009, particularly how they handled the ebbs and flows of momentum. They know it's about preventing big plays and not wasting opportunities on offense. They know it's about tempo, a pitched battle of contrasting styles. Oregon wants to play fast and slash you. Stanford wants to slow things down and pound you.

At least one insider believes Stanford will sustain its recent run of success.

"Absolutely. Hopefully they do better than we did," Luck said. "I think there are a lot of great players here, starting at the top with the coaching staff. Great players, great recruiting classes. They will only continue to get better."

As for what Stanford will be in 2012, its first season of the post-Luck era, Shaw thinks his team will have the same tough-guy persona. But it'll be angrier.

"We're going to go right at people and hit them in the mouth," he said. "And it helps to feel like you're disrespected."

Stanford's secondary is going to be young next season. Not exactly breaking news, but that's the reality when four seniors, three of them starters, graduate. But the players returning also have some experience and quality playing time, which should help compensate for their youth.

In other words, there no excuses.

"I think [defensive coordinator Derek] Mason might have been a little more tolerant with us last year, a little more patient," said safety Jordan Richards. "Not anymore. We've all been here and have a full season under our belts. This is on us -- and coach Mason is making sure we know that."

The back four -- two cornerbacks and two safeties -- have to be getting tired of hearing how good the front seven is going to be. They are so experienced. This guy is back and that guy is back. It gets old. And if the front seven is considered Stanford's defensive strength, by virtue of elimination, the back four can't be.

That perception is something the group is looking to alter. But first they'll need to settle some competition. Gone are safeties Delano Howell and Michael Thomas. Gone are cornerbacks Johnson Bademosi and Corey Gatewood.

Terrence Brown and Barry Browning are back at cornerback, along with the highly-touted Wayne Lyons who is returning from a foot injury. Usua Amanam should also be in the mix and don't be surprised if Alex Carter makes an immediate impact when he arrives in the summer. Also returning are Richards and Devon Carrington at the safety spot along with Ed Reynolds, who is also returning from injury. Kyle Olugbode has also seen reps this spring.

Richards was one of the true freshman called into action when Howell went down for several games with a hand injury. He started three games for Stanford last year -- the most brutal stretch of the season that included at USC, at Oregon State and home to Oregon. Tough detail.

"It was, at times, a blur," Richards said. "And other times, I felt like I was in control and the game slowed."

The telling part of that quote is the "at times" portion. Richards notched eight tackles in his first start against USC. Then a couple of games later he watched Oregon run all over the Cardinal. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. In his second year, he's striving for more consistency. And having had the chance to learn behind Thomas and Howell, he thinks he's found it.

"I learned how to see the game from those guys," Richards said. "As a freshman, you come in with tunnel vision. You need to learn to see how things move around. Now it's a transition. You've been here for a year, you learn to read formational cues and the game slows down a lot more. You know what the offensive tendencies are. That's the biggest difference. You're not a deer in the headlights anymore. You just go out and play and try not to over think it."

Brown has the most experience at cornerback, followed by Browning who started three games last season. According to Richards, Brown and Reynolds have taken on the leadership roles vacated by the departed seniors.

"As a group, it's been TB and Ed," Richards said. "Those guys have been around. But we all know what's at stake, and we're all trying to be leaders and be on our game as a group because we know that we are going to be young and people are going to try to come after us."

Like in Week 3, when the Cardinal host USC -- a pass happy offense with the Heisman front-runner at quarterback, the top wide receiving duo in the country and possibly the No. 1-ranked team in the nation. So this group is going to have to find a way to come together quickly.

"That's what the spring is all about," Richards said. "We're working hard to be a cohesive group. Coach Mason is pushing us and I think we're going to come together."

Is David Shaw one of the top two or three coaches in the Pac-12? No.

How about top five? Nope.

Top half? Top 8? Negative.

Not if you buy the recent rankings by Athlon Sports, which has Shaw as the No. 9 rated coach in the Pac-12 conference.

Before we dive into that, let's review the list:

1. Chip Kelly, Oregon
2. Lane Kiffin, USC
3. Mike Leach, Washington State
4. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
5. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
6. Steve Sarkisian, Washington
7. Mike Riley, Oregon State
8. Jeff Tedford, Cal
9. David Shaw, Stanford
10. Todd Graham, Arizona State
11. Jim Mora, UCLA
12. Jon Embree, Colorado

No doubt, Kelly belongs at the top. If anyone wants to make an argument for anyone else -- I'd love to hear it. Kelly is clearly the top coach in the conference.

But it starts to get muddled after No. 1. When I first saw the headline, my initial thought for Shaw was in two-three-four range. But as I kept scrolling down, I was pretty surprised to see him at No. 9.

The biggest argument against Shaw is that he doesn't have a body of work yet as a head coach. It seems like the question mark from the Athlon folks is that they don't know what Shaw can do without a Harbaugh or a Luck next to his name.

There is much to like about Shaw and there is much that is still unknown. This fall will feature the first in Palo Alto without a Harbaugh or a Luck on the roster and it falls to Shaw to maintain an unprecedented level of success. Jim Harbaugh deserves all of the credit for re-establishing the Cardinal brand nationwide and developing Andrew Luck into the best player in the nation the last two years. Replacing two first-round offensive linemen will also be an issue for Stanford in 2012. Shaw is steeped in Stanford tradition as a player and son of a coach for the Cardinal, but legacy alone won’t keep Shaw in Bob Bowlsby’s good graces. This is one name that could be ranked much higher (or lower) on this list come next offseason.

I think it's a bit of a sweeping statement to say Harbaugh deserves all of the credit. Shaw, after all, played a huge role in recruiting Luck. He also recruited a large portion of Harbaugh's players and ran Harbaugh's offense for four seasons. And he's the reigning Pac-12 Coach of the Year. Doesn't that count for anything?

As fate would have it, I was plugging away at this post yesterday afternoon when my cell rang and Shaw's picture appeared. After we got done swapping stock tips and talking about which Hunger Games characters we were going to dress as for the big premier, I figured it was worth asking his opinion on such polls and how he felt about his ninth-ranked status.

"No reaction at all," said Shaw, never one for chest-puffing. "I have no problem with that. I'm a one-year head coach and a lot of people attribute the team's success to Andrew -- justifiably so. A lot of people attribute it to Jim Harbaugh. Me, honestly, that's fine. As long as Bob Bowlsby likes the job that I'm doing and I can keep this job -- hopefully for the next 15-20 years -- I can be the last-ranked coach as long as we keep winning games and going to bowl games, I'm fine.

"Rankings don't win games."

Shaw has an NFL pedigree that few coaches on this list can match. I'm not saying he should be No. 2. You can make arguments, I think, for Shaw, Leach, Whittingham or Kiffin in the No. 2 spot. And they would all have merit. (I'm actually leaning toward Whittingham, having seen his success over the years during my time covering the Mountain West).

But when you consider the recruiting class Shaw brought in this year -- which had absolutely nothing to do with Harbaugh or Luck -- and the way he schemed the offense this season to compensate for a lack of overwhelming wide receiver talent, you have to think that warrants more than being the No. 9 guy in the conference. Think of the triple-tight formations and the plays with eight offensive linemen. Pretty innovative stuff.

Consider some of the immeasurables that Shaw was dealing with this season. He had a glaring spotlight already with the departure of Harbaugh and the return of Luck. He had to replace three offensive linemen with first-year starters, had a shaky receiving corps and had to fill both coordinator spots. The dice were equally loaded for success or failure. It's too dismissive to say he was just riding the coattails of Harbaugh and Luck because Shaw's fingerprints were all over the 2011 team. And give credit to the rest of his staff. Shaw brought in Mike Bloomgren, Jason Tarver, Ron Crook and Mike Sanford -- all of whom were major contributors to the team's success. Hiring solid coaches is an important element that often gets overlooked.

Was he perfect? Nope. Not even close. Find me a coach who is. I'll wait ... ... ... I can count on one hand the number of times I questioned a Shaw decision or play call.

I like Shaw's demeanor -- calm most of the time but fiery when he has to be. I like the pro-style, balanced approach to offense, and I like how he's a tireless advocate for his players.

All of the above don't make Shaw the No. 1 coach in the conference. But it doesn't make him No. 9, either.

Which QB should go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft on April 26?

Forget the NFL scouts and GMs: You decide whether Stanford's Andrew Luck or Baylor's Robert Griffin III looks better at his pro day in front of salivating NFL personnel men.

You can watch Griffin's pro day at Baylor on Wednesday at noon ET, live on ESPN3.

And you can watch Luck on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET, live on ESPN3 as well.

While it's widely viewed as a lock that Luck goes first, it nonetheless will be interesting to see if one or the other earns a better grade for his accuracy and arm strength after neither threw for scouts at the combine.

Going to Stanford doesn't prevent you from doing stupid things. So we have Cardinal linebacker Shayne Skov, who was arrested and jailed last weekend for driving under the influence.

The Stanford Daily, which first reported the arrest, said Skov "was transported to the San Jose main jail and booked for driving under the influence at 2 a.m. Sunday." He was pulled over in the parking lot of his dormitory.

It will be interesting to see how Stanford handles this. It seems like a serious but isolated incident. Skov is a good student, NFL prospect and a great team leader. If healthy, he likely would rate as the top returning inside linebacker in the Pac-12.

But he's not irreplaceable. Stanford knows this because it played solid defense even after he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the season's third game at Arizona. Skov is still not 100 percent and is not expected to see much action in spring practice.

Of course, with Skov, the Cardinal's 3-4 defense is much better than without him, even with plenty of depth at the position.

"We have an expected standard of excellence and conduct for our players and Shayne failed to adhere to those standards," Stanford coach David Shaw said in a statement released through a team spokesman. "It's a matter we are taking very seriously. Shayne will be responsible to adhere to any legal responsibilities regarding this event along with ramifications which will be determined by the program."

That means the ice under Skov's cleats is thin. The Cardinal open the 2012 season against San Jose State and then play host to Duke. They won't need Skov to win those games, if Shaw opts to suspend him.

But USC comes a-calling in Week 3. Skov's presence would certainly come in handy against Matt Barkley & Co.

Getting a signature from D-lineman Aziz Shittu topped a big national signing day for Stanford, which is challenging USC for the top class in the Pac-12.

Shittu (Atwater, Calif./Buhach Colony) picked the Cardinal over USC, UCLA and California.

In other news:

• QB Cyler Miles flirted with USC but remained true to his commitment to Washington.
• The Huskies also managed to flip athlete Cleveland Wallace (San Jose, Calif./Oak Grove) from Oregon State.
• CB Bryan Harper signed with Arizona, picking the Wildcats over Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA and Washington.
• Athlete Kenneth Walker (Richmond, Calif./Kennedy) picked UCLA over California and Washington.

Stanford wants to be a physical football team with a rugged running game. It just picked up a piece that can make that happen.

Offensive lineman Joshua Garnett (Puyallup, Wash./Puyallup) has picked Stanford over Michigan.

“I love the strength and conditioning program and I’ve seen firsthand how much bigger and stronger the Stanford players get," he told ESPN Recruiting's Greg Biggins. "I knew David DeCastro in high school and he was always strong but now he’s benching over 500 pounds and is an absolute beast, that's how I want to be.”

The 6-foot-5, 285 pounder is consider the top prospect in the state of Washington. He's ranked No. 44 overall on the ESPNU 150.

Garnett is the 5th offensive line commitment for the Cardinal and they’re in the running for two more elite linemen: Kyle Murphy (San Clemente, Calif./San Clemente) and Andrus Peat (Tempe, Ariz./Corona del Sol), who will both announce on signing day. Murphy is ranked 27th on the ESPNU 150 and Peat ninth.

And, yes, signing three of the nation's top-45 offensive linemen would be impressive — and would raise an eyebrow or two among 2013 QB and RB recruits.

Let's face it, you're not going to find a bunch of underachievers at Stanford. So it makes sense that Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders dubbed the Cardinal one of five recruiting overachievers over the last few years.

Fremeau looked at the last five seasons and compared teams with higher-rated recruiting classes against the rest of the field. Interestingly enough, teams with the "better" recruiting classes won 67 percent of the time. But five teams with less heralded recruits bucked that trend. Stanford being one of them.

Writes Fremeau: The Cardinal lead all teams in victories (29 wins since 2007) over the last five seasons in games in which they had a recruiting disadvantage. Of those 29 wins, 22 have come in the last three seasons with quarterback Andrew Luck at the helm. Luck was a highly touted quarterback coming out of high school (he ranked seventh among QBs nationally and 61st overall in the ESPNU 150), and he's the most significant reason for Stanford's meteoric rise over the last few years.

But former coach Jim Harbaugh also developed unheralded talent to build the program, and current head coach David Shaw kept that train rolling this past season. The recent success has helped Stanford produce several of its strongest recruiting classes in the last few seasons, but once Luck departs, will that overachieving tradition depart, too? Stanford will continue to play annual games against the Oregon Ducks, USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, along with several other Pac-12 foes, in which it will have a decided disadvantage in terms of recruiting ratings.

The other four teams to make Fremeau's list are Cincinnati, Boise State, Baylor and Oregon State.

But that trend might be changing. The Cardinal have a Top 20 recruiting class in the works, headlined by three players on the ESPNU 150 list. They are still in the hunt for several big-name players -- including three of the nation's top prep offensive linemen. If the Cardinal can close the deal on some of those players in the next week, it could propel them into a Top 15, maybe even Top 10 class. This year's group is already on pace to be one of the top classes in school history.

Well, apparently I rattled up quite the hornet's nest a couple of days ago in the mailbag by taking the under in a reader question wanting to know my opinion on the over/under for 8.5 for wins for Stanford next season.

Most seemed to think I was being too harsh and that nine or 10 wins were more likely than the seven or eight wins I'm forecasting. (This total doesn't include a bowl game, mind you).

OK, I'm not afraid to show my work on a way-too-early analysis of each game. Naturally, this is based off the personnel we know is available, the assumption there are no catastrophic injuries and little more than gut feelings.

• Sept. 1 vs. San Jose State: Cardinal will be multi-touchdown favorites and will cruise behind a monster running attack. Good game for the new signal caller to get his feet wet. Win (1-0).
• Sept. 8. vs. Duke: Offense won't be as vanilla as the week before as they start adding new elements for the first-year starting quarterback. There will be a couple of mistakes, but Geoff Meinken will stiff-arm the Cardinal to a comfortable victory. Win (2-0).
• Sept. 15 vs. USC: I don't see this as a blowout that some seem to think it will be. The Cardinal will control the clock with the rushing attack and David Shaw has always been a very good play-caller against USC. But the Matt Barkley-led Trojans finally get a win over Stanford. Loss (2-1).
• Sept. 22 Bye: Good time to recover from first loss of the year and prep for first road trip of the season.
• Sept 27 at Washington: What? You mean we have to play outside of California? Tough place to play and Keith Price is only getting better. Maybe the Huskies will have some defense to speak of? No Chris Polk hurts, but the Cardinal still won't be able to keep up. The one thing that might sway this is Stanford coming out of the bye week. But I wouldn't expect 446 rushing yards this time around. Loss (2-2).
• Oct. 6 vs. Arizona: Students are finally back on campus and realize there is a football game. Not sure what to make of the Rich Rodriguez Wildcats yet, but Stanford should be the better team and getting Arizona earlier in the season is always helpful when a new coaching staff is involved. Win (3-2).
• Oct. 13 at Notre Dame: I'm expecting the Irish to have their third quarterback controversy of the season by this point. Stepfan Taylor has a huge game on the road and continues to be the most underrated running back in the conference. Cardinal pull this one out. Win (4-2).
• Oct. 20 at Cal: A Big Game before Halloween? Spooky. New quarterbacks are always good for at least one road loss in games they are favored to win. Given the magnitude of this game, this might be that one. Loss (4-3).
• Oct. 27 vs. Washington State: Cougars throw for 400 yards, but Cardinal score more points. Win (5-3).
• Nov. 3 at Colorado: Buffs still not ready to make a move. Cardinal cruise. Win (6-3).
• Nov. 10 vs. Oregon State: With bowl eligibility locked up, the Cardinal are looking to improve their postseason status. Whoever is playing quarterback has the offense figured out and Taylor will surpass the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year. Should be a great way to honor him on senior night. But this could also be a trap game. OSU played a lot of youth last season that has to grow up sometime. Win (7-3).
• Nov. 17 at Oregon: Yeah ... not going to happen. Loss (7-4).
• Nov. 24 at UCLA: I think this could be a swing game for both teams. But my best guess is UCLA is still a year away from making real noise. Win (8-4).

Here's a look at Stanford's schedule in 2012 (all games on a Saturday unless otherwise noted). Let the win-loss debate begin.

• Sept. 1 San Jose State at Stanford
• Sept. 8 Duke at Stanford
• Sept. 15 USC at Stanford
• Sept. 22 Bye
• (Thursday) Sept. 27 Stanford at Washington
• Oct. 6 Arizona at Stanford
• Oct. 13 Stanford at Notre Dame
• Oct. 20 Stanford at Cal
• Oct. 27 Washington State at Stanford
• Nov. 3 Stanford at Colorado
• Nov. 10 Oregon State at Stanford
• Nov. 17 Stanford at Oregon
• Nov. 24 Stanford at UCLA
• Nov. 30: Pac-12 Football Championship Game (just for those of you with extra high hopes).

First thoughts:

• Nice to open up with three straight at home, but a big challenge early against USC. The bye week right afterward helps getting whoever is at quarterback ready for his first trip as a starter to Washington.
• Traveling to Notre Dame is always tough -- no matter who is playing quarterback. Takes away the sting of back-to-back road games when you don't have to leave the region to play Cal.
• About the Big Game being played so early, Stanford athletic director Bob Bowlsby said this through a release from the school: “The October 20 date for Big Game is 2012 is certainly not our first choice but the conference is governed by the will of the majority and we have a duty to respect the outcome of the vote. We will work with California and the Pac-12 office to advocate for the Big Game and all rivalry games to be scheduled toward the end of the season in future years.”
• By my count, Stanford should have bowl eligibility by, at the very least, the end of the Colorado game -- though the Notre Dame-Cal stretch will be critical. Winning both would be outstanding, splitting would be passable, but dropping both could be a momentum killer because the Cardinal have three very winnable games (home to WSU, at Colorado, home to OSU) heading into Oregon.
• Would rather face UCLA with new coach Jim Mora early in the season while things are still getting sorted out. By the final week, the Bruins will know what they are doing (for better or worse). Plus, depending on how things play out, it's not out of the realm of possibility that UCLA might need that final game to clinch bowl eligibility.
• The extra time to study in between Washington and Arizona will be helpful for prepping against the new-look, Rich Rodriguez-led Wildcats.
• Having five of the final seven games on the road is going to be rough. But better to have it that way than five of the first seven on the road with a new quarterback.

As previously mentioned in the mailbag, I see eight wins -- though I wouldn't be shocked at seven. Anything over eight would be a bonus and anything under seven would be a disappointment. I think the schedule works out nicely for a team with a new quarterback and one that will certainly be under the spotlight once again next season, albeit for different reasons than this year.

VIP strip club outings, illegal campaign contributions, expense claims that qualified as only slightly less than stealing: The Fiesta Bowl organization sounded like it was inspired by "The Sopranos" in a series of stories written by the Arizona Republic from 2009-10. When the U.S. Attorney's Office, FBI and IRS began investigations, the resemblance was even more striking.

Former Fiesta Bowl COO Natalie Wisneski was indicted in Arizona federal court on nine criminal counts on Nov. 16, and among the seven felony counts were conspiracy and filing false tax records. More indictments could follow, including for former bowl CEO John Junker, who was forced out in March. Junker, according reports on the investigations, piled up nearly $5 million in expenses on the company's credit card over a 10-year period. Along the way, he allegedly paid for a $1,200 strip club visit and held a $33,000 birthday party for himself at Pebble Beach.

Bowl games already were catching heat in the media, and not just because of fans wanting a playoff instead of the BCS. More than a few news reports had questioned the bowl games' tax-exempt status. Tales of the lavish ways of the Fiesta Bowl certainly didn't help the public perception.

Fiesta, indeed.

Into this swirling mess stepped Robert Shelton: an academic, a physicist, a former president of the University of Arizona. But his taking over the top spot at the Fiesta Bowl wasn't a moment for relativity. The bowl organization's issues were philosophic as much as anything. And Shelton's focus after taking over were existential. A branding group from Dallas was brought aboard to study the simple idea of why the Fiesta Bowl existed and what it should aspire to be.

"If we disappeared tomorrow, what would be better or what would be worse in the world?" Shelton said. "The answer is pretty simple in the end. The answer isn't bowl games. We exist to bring economic value to the state of Arizona, to be a window to the state of Arizona, a source of pride. That people outside the state of Arizona will come to see Arizona. We exist for philanthropic purposes. So that's why we are here."

And then he added: "If we keep that in mind, then we can say, 'How do we do this?'"

If the Fiesta Bowl -- the game itself -- isn't the end, but the means to an end, then the Fiesta Bowl's prime directive is to serve its community, though probably not at the local strip clubs and through backdoor routes to political coffers.

There have been changes, starting with a turnover of about one third of the bowl's 35 full-time employees. Even before Shelton arrived, the bowl adopted a new set of bylaws that included a far stricter set of checks and balances on how money is spent. There's a new "authorization matrix," which lists who can approve what expenditures at what levels and what kind of sign-offs you must have for purchases. Large expenditures require multiple sign-offs. The bowl now uses bowl-owned purchasing cards, instead of allowing employees to use their own credit cards for expenses, expecting reimbursement, which helps the bowl get a concrete idea of expenses. Further, all employees and volunteers undergo background checks, and all employees and board members sign a code of conduct.

And the old, infamous "Fiesta Bowl Frolic," which was basically a big party for college administrators, is now the "Fiesta Bowl Summit." It will include panels on important subjects, such as concussions in college football.

The Fiesta Bowl's problems were about the corrupt actions of individuals, but they also were about the bowl's culture. Both had to change.

"There were a handful of individuals alleged to have misbehaved," Shelton said. "But they were enabled by an atmosphere that was created over many, many years. Not through any evil intent but an atmosphere that wasn't cautious and reviewing or as informed as it should be."

Shelton was hired in June, but the months before he came aboard were precarious. Existential thoughts? The Fiesta Bowl, first played in 1971, was facing potential extermination. It could have been kicked out of the BCS, for one. And it could have lost its bowl licenses from the NCAA, which includes its oversight of the Insight Bowl. In the end, the BCS fined the bowl $1 million but retained the Fiesta Bowl, and the NCAA Postseason Bowl Licensing Subcommittee put the bowl on one-year probation.

Shelton believes the bowl game is back on firm ground, though he said it wasn't yet time for the bowl to be "sanguine."

"I think there is a sense we've done the right things, and the BCS and NCAA value what we bring to the bowls and postseason play," he said.

The bowl's mission as a charitable organization also has been reviewed. When asked how much the bowl gave to charity in past years, Shelton admitted it was "relatively low in the past."

That $1 million fine from the BCS has been paid out to charity, and the Fiesta Bowl has decided to give out another $400,000 to charitable causes. It's also adopted a more systematic fashion of giving, holding publicized general calls for charitable requests.

Of course, there's another apparent conflict of interest that Shelton must face leading up to this year's Fiesta Bowl between Stanford and Oklahoma State on Jan. 2.

Shelton is a Stanford graduate.

"I am completely neutral," he said. "I shall be dressed in neutral colors. I can't talk for my wife or kids who are also Stanford alumni."

It's a great matchup, arguably even better than the national title game between LSU and Alabama, considering that is a rematch. But while both teams have sold out their ticket allotments, the bowl is not yet a sellout.

It's possible that in a sagging local economy, the locals won't immediately re-embrace a bowl game that let its community down.

But Shelton is hoping, after an existential crisis, that the bowl finds a mythic ending.

"We could use the Fiesta Bowl's tragic events to come out even better," he said. "That's the nature of the word 'Phoenix.'"

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck earned first-team Academic All-American honors Thursday.

Here's the release from the Pac-12:

STANFORD junior quarterback Andrew Luck leads the Capital One Academic All-America Division I football team, as chosen by the College Sports Information Directors of America (CoSIDA) and announced Thursday. Luck was honored as the Academic All-America Team Member of the Year and named to the first team. OREGON junior offensive lineman Carson York was named to the second team.

Luck, an architectural design major with a 3.48 GPA, was named the Walter Camp Football Foundation Player of the Year and received the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the top quarterback in college football. The two-time Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year and Heisman Trophy finalist, Luck has thrown for 3,170 yards and 35 touchdowns this season. He was named to the American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) All-America team on Monday.

Stanford QB Andrew Luck has been named the 2011 Walter Camp Football Foundation Player of the Year.

Here's the official press release:

Luck

Stanford University senior quarterback Andrew Luck (Houston, TX) has been selected as the 2011 Walter Camp Football Foundation Player of the Year. Foundation President John Marks made the announcement tonight during ESPN’s 6 p.m. edition of SportsCenter.

The Walter Camp Player of the Year is voted on by the nation’s 120 Football Bowl Subdivision head coaches and sports information directors.

The 45th recipient of the Walter Camp Player of the Year award, Luck is the second Stanford player – joining Jim Plunkett QB, 1970) – to earn the honor. Luck is also the eighth player from the Pac-12 Conference – and first since 2005 (Reggie Bush, USC) – to be selected Player of the Year.

Other finalists for the Walter Camp 2011 Player of the Year award included Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III, Houston quarterback Case Keenum, Alabama running back Trent Richardson and LSU defensive back Tyrann Mathieu.

“Andrew Luck’s performance on and off the football field has made him a worthy recipient of the Walter Camp Player of the Year award,” Marks said. “Andrew’s poise, leadership, and consistency have been trademarks of the Cardinal’s outstanding 2011 season.”

The 6-foot 4, 235-pound Luck is a Walter Camp First Team All-America selection after leading the Cardinal offense that ranks second in the Pac-12 and fifth in the country in scoring (43.6 points per game). Through 12 games this season, Luck has completed 70 percent of his pass attempts (261-of-373) for 3,170 yards and a school-record 35 touchdowns. His 167.5 pass efficiency rating leads the Pac-12 and ranks fifth in the nation.

Also selected the 2011 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year, Luck threw for three or more touchdowns in a game eight times. He passed for 300+ yards four times, including a season-high 370 in a win over Colorado on October 8 when he completed 26-of-33 passes and three touchdowns.

Fourth-ranked Stanford (11-1) will play third-ranked Oklahoma State in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on January 2. It is Stanford’s second straight 11-win season.

For his career, Luck is 31-6 as a starter and holds several Stanford career records, including touchdown passes (80), completion percentage (66.4%) and total offense (10,043 yards).

An architectural design major, Luck has a 3.48 cumulative grade point average and is a Pac-12 All-Academic Team member.

Luck, along with members of the Walter Camp 2011 All-America team, will be honored at the organization’s national awards banquet on Saturday, January 14, 2012 at the Yale University Commons in New Haven.