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I wanted to follow up on the Most Important Game series Ted and I have been doing in the Pac-12 blog. Yesterday Ted gave you his thoughts on Stanford's most important game -- and he understandably picked The Big Game against Cal on Oct. 20.

Hard to argue with that. But for kicks and giggles, I'd like to offer a contrarian perspective. I wholeheartedly agree Cal is the biggest game of the year for Stanford. It is every year. No debating that. But is it the most important? I think a strong argument can be made that Sept. 27 at Washington is more important for the trajectory of the season.

Consider:

I don't think anyone anticipates the Cardinal dropping the first two games to San Jose State or Duke. Those will essentially be learning-curve games for the new quarterback, his new offensive linemen and it will basically be live 11-on-11 work for the new-look secondary. Because we all know what awaits them in Week 3.

I'll have plenty to say about the Stanford-USC game in tomorrow's Take 2 in the Pac-12 blog. But win or lose against the Trojans, what happens the following week is crucial for the remainder of the season.

If Stanford tops USC at home, the team will have a ton of confidence heading to Seattle. But if the Cardinal fall to USC -- and you have to figure they'll be considerable home dogs -- it will be the first dent in the new quarterback's confidence. Then he's got a bye week to get his head on straight before starting his first college football game on the road -- against another Heisman hopeful quarterback in Keith Price and a completely revamped Huskies defense.

The first goal for the Cardinal is to win the Pac-12 North. Winning your division should be the top goal for every team -- because a lot of doors close without that division title. And we all know the road to the North crown goes through Oregon. But Washington and Stanford are both jockeying to be the team to challenge Oregon. The winner takes a huge step forward.

And don't think Washington has forgotten about last year's tushy-whooping on The Farm. Make no mistake about it -- Washington wants revenge and wants it in grand fashion.

With the majority of Stanford's marquee games on the road this year -- at Notre Dame, at Cal, at Oregon -- getting that first road victory is going to be extremely important. Because the next road game is in South Bend, Ind., and the one after that is across the Bay at Cal.

A victory over Washington puts Stanford at 3-1, a far more advantageous psychological position than 2-2. Stanford and its new quarterback will have to learn to win on the road. And winning the first one against a quality opponent -- or losing a revenge game -- could alter the entire landscape of the 2012 season.

We've seen David Shaw the offensive coordinator; David Shaw the head coach, recruiter and motivator. We've seen the David Shaw who gets perturbed when his strategies are questioned and the David Shaw who is humbled by praise and deflects kudos onto his assistants and players.

But there's one David Shaw we're yet to see: David Shaw the disciplinarian.

While so much of the attention heading into next season's opener against San Jose State was going to focus on who would start at quarterback, now we must also turn our attention to the defensive side of the ball and wonder who will be starting at inside linebacker. And for all the wrong reasons.

If memory serves, there were no players suspended or forced to miss time for violating team rules in the 2011 season. If there were, it wasn't made public and they weren't starters. But Shayne Skov is one of the best linebackers in the country, a poster boy for hard work and probably the most visible player on the 2012 roster. Whatever course of action Shaw takes in dealing with Skov's reported DUI will serve as a precedent for how all other disciplinary actions are taken.

I think it's safe to assume he's not going to dismiss Skov from the team -- as Mike Leach did yesterday with Washington State linebacker C.J. Mizell. Skov has neither the history nor the offense to warrant that severe of a punishment. He's a good teammate, a good student -- and if you work in the media -- a pretty good quote. All in all, he's a good guy who made a beyond-idiotic mistake.

But Shaw can't let this slide with a couple extra laps after practice and a stern talking-to, either. Skov put his life and the lives of others in jeopardy when he decided to knock back x-amount of cocktails and then turn the key.

Shaw hasn't made any comments about the incident other than an official statement issued through the school. But if David Shaw the disciplinarian is anything like the head coach, he'll approach it in the same, cool and even-tempered demeanor in which he approaches most things. But if anyone saw how distressed Shaw was when talking about Skov's injury back in Tucson, or the way he exploded in Pullman following an illegal hit on Chris Owusu, it's clear he loves his players and he's going to have their back. That makes whatever decision to come that much harder.

A suspension is certainly in order. How many games is the question. Clouding the issue is Skov's health. He's still recovering from a knee injury and we won't know if he'll be 100 percent to start the season. If he is fully healthy -- and he's suspended for the San Jose State and Duke games -- that seems fair.

But if he's still a couple of weeks away from being healthy when the season starts -- and he's suspended for both of those games -- is it really a just punishment? Suspending him for games he might have not played in -- or only played a minor role -- seems like doling out discipline with a dust pan rather than an iron fist.

Which brings us to the third game of the season: USC. This is one of the marquee games on Stanford's 2012 schedule and a true measuring stick for the Cardinal in the post-Andrew Luck era. Stanford doesn't need Skov to beat USC. Stanford doesn't need Skov at all -- for that matter. But they are a better team with him.

Whatever punishment Skov is to serve should begin when he's ready to play football. If that's the third game of the season, so be it. Using Skov's injury as a subterfuge for suspension would be letting him off the hook and a disservice to the position Shaw holds.

Shaw is, above all, a Stanford man. Now it's up to him -- David Shaw the disciplinarian -- to back up the ideals he so frequently preaches.

Well, apparently I rattled up quite the hornet's nest a couple of days ago in the mailbag by taking the under in a reader question wanting to know my opinion on the over/under for 8.5 for wins for Stanford next season.

Most seemed to think I was being too harsh and that nine or 10 wins were more likely than the seven or eight wins I'm forecasting. (This total doesn't include a bowl game, mind you).

OK, I'm not afraid to show my work on a way-too-early analysis of each game. Naturally, this is based off the personnel we know is available, the assumption there are no catastrophic injuries and little more than gut feelings.

• Sept. 1 vs. San Jose State: Cardinal will be multi-touchdown favorites and will cruise behind a monster running attack. Good game for the new signal caller to get his feet wet. Win (1-0).
• Sept. 8. vs. Duke: Offense won't be as vanilla as the week before as they start adding new elements for the first-year starting quarterback. There will be a couple of mistakes, but Geoff Meinken will stiff-arm the Cardinal to a comfortable victory. Win (2-0).
• Sept. 15 vs. USC: I don't see this as a blowout that some seem to think it will be. The Cardinal will control the clock with the rushing attack and David Shaw has always been a very good play-caller against USC. But the Matt Barkley-led Trojans finally get a win over Stanford. Loss (2-1).
• Sept. 22 Bye: Good time to recover from first loss of the year and prep for first road trip of the season.
• Sept 27 at Washington: What? You mean we have to play outside of California? Tough place to play and Keith Price is only getting better. Maybe the Huskies will have some defense to speak of? No Chris Polk hurts, but the Cardinal still won't be able to keep up. The one thing that might sway this is Stanford coming out of the bye week. But I wouldn't expect 446 rushing yards this time around. Loss (2-2).
• Oct. 6 vs. Arizona: Students are finally back on campus and realize there is a football game. Not sure what to make of the Rich Rodriguez Wildcats yet, but Stanford should be the better team and getting Arizona earlier in the season is always helpful when a new coaching staff is involved. Win (3-2).
• Oct. 13 at Notre Dame: I'm expecting the Irish to have their third quarterback controversy of the season by this point. Stepfan Taylor has a huge game on the road and continues to be the most underrated running back in the conference. Cardinal pull this one out. Win (4-2).
• Oct. 20 at Cal: A Big Game before Halloween? Spooky. New quarterbacks are always good for at least one road loss in games they are favored to win. Given the magnitude of this game, this might be that one. Loss (4-3).
• Oct. 27 vs. Washington State: Cougars throw for 400 yards, but Cardinal score more points. Win (5-3).
• Nov. 3 at Colorado: Buffs still not ready to make a move. Cardinal cruise. Win (6-3).
• Nov. 10 vs. Oregon State: With bowl eligibility locked up, the Cardinal are looking to improve their postseason status. Whoever is playing quarterback has the offense figured out and Taylor will surpass the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year. Should be a great way to honor him on senior night. But this could also be a trap game. OSU played a lot of youth last season that has to grow up sometime. Win (7-3).
• Nov. 17 at Oregon: Yeah ... not going to happen. Loss (7-4).
• Nov. 24 at UCLA: I think this could be a swing game for both teams. But my best guess is UCLA is still a year away from making real noise. Win (8-4).

Here's a look at Stanford's schedule in 2012 (all games on a Saturday unless otherwise noted). Let the win-loss debate begin.

• Sept. 1 San Jose State at Stanford
• Sept. 8 Duke at Stanford
• Sept. 15 USC at Stanford
• Sept. 22 Bye
• (Thursday) Sept. 27 Stanford at Washington
• Oct. 6 Arizona at Stanford
• Oct. 13 Stanford at Notre Dame
• Oct. 20 Stanford at Cal
• Oct. 27 Washington State at Stanford
• Nov. 3 Stanford at Colorado
• Nov. 10 Oregon State at Stanford
• Nov. 17 Stanford at Oregon
• Nov. 24 Stanford at UCLA
• Nov. 30: Pac-12 Football Championship Game (just for those of you with extra high hopes).

First thoughts:

• Nice to open up with three straight at home, but a big challenge early against USC. The bye week right afterward helps getting whoever is at quarterback ready for his first trip as a starter to Washington.
• Traveling to Notre Dame is always tough -- no matter who is playing quarterback. Takes away the sting of back-to-back road games when you don't have to leave the region to play Cal.
• About the Big Game being played so early, Stanford athletic director Bob Bowlsby said this through a release from the school: “The October 20 date for Big Game is 2012 is certainly not our first choice but the conference is governed by the will of the majority and we have a duty to respect the outcome of the vote. We will work with California and the Pac-12 office to advocate for the Big Game and all rivalry games to be scheduled toward the end of the season in future years.”
• By my count, Stanford should have bowl eligibility by, at the very least, the end of the Colorado game -- though the Notre Dame-Cal stretch will be critical. Winning both would be outstanding, splitting would be passable, but dropping both could be a momentum killer because the Cardinal have three very winnable games (home to WSU, at Colorado, home to OSU) heading into Oregon.
• Would rather face UCLA with new coach Jim Mora early in the season while things are still getting sorted out. By the final week, the Bruins will know what they are doing (for better or worse). Plus, depending on how things play out, it's not out of the realm of possibility that UCLA might need that final game to clinch bowl eligibility.
• The extra time to study in between Washington and Arizona will be helpful for prepping against the new-look, Rich Rodriguez-led Wildcats.
• Having five of the final seven games on the road is going to be rough. But better to have it that way than five of the first seven on the road with a new quarterback.

As previously mentioned in the mailbag, I see eight wins -- though I wouldn't be shocked at seven. Anything over eight would be a bonus and anything under seven would be a disappointment. I think the schedule works out nicely for a team with a new quarterback and one that will certainly be under the spotlight once again next season, albeit for different reasons than this year.