ESPN College Football

Our Take Two topic this week: Which is the Pac-12's most dangerous trap game?

Kevin Gemmell: Since we're talking trap games this week -- and traps usually involve teams expected to do well -- I see a big one in Week 3 for the USC Trojans traveling north to Stanford.

This game has brought two of the Pac-12's most exciting matchups in consecutive years. There was the last-minute field goal in 2010 and the triple-overtime thriller at the Coliseum last season. No need to bring up the 55-21 game in 2009. It would be easy to assume that because Andrew Luck is gone, the Trojans will now roll over the Cardinal.

Maybe. USC, no doubt, will be highly ranked and heavily favored.

But the X-factor to this game is Stanford head coach David Shaw -- who is especially good at play calling against USC. You don't spend as much time on the offensive side of the ball in the NFL as Shaw did without learning a little something about the Tampa-2 defense, which USC is fond of running given that its defensive coordinator essentially invented it.

The Cardinal were the prickly splinter in USC's side during the Luck era. Luck was able to absorb Shaw's knowledge of USC's defense and they were able to go blow-for-blow with the Trojans. Shaw knows how to scheme against this team and Luck knew how to make that scheme a reality on the field. Although, who throws the Venus on Spider-3, Y-banana? Seriously.

But that era is over. And the Cardinal are going to make their living with a tough ground attack and a vicious front seven. I don't doubt USC's ability to move the ball. And if I'm a Stanford fan, I'm concerned about this becoming a high-scoring affair because the Cardinal have a young secondary and they don't have the horses to match the Trojans drive for drive.

I expect USC to be highly motivated for this game. Not only because of the past, but because of the future. The Stanford game marks the first of four straight tough games for the Trojans -- which is followed by Cal, Utah and Washington. Stubbing their toe early will certainly have ramifications for the rest of the season -- and the rest of the conference.

I don't think anyone will question that position-for-position, USC has more athletes than Stanford. But this will be the Trojans' first real mental test of the season. They'll be coming off an East Coast road trip and then have to go on the road again. Stanford Stadium isn't exactly the toughest venue in the conference, but it's not Disneyland, either. There will be a strong fan presence.

This season is going to be mentally taxing for the Trojans. A win at Stanford will be the first step over the psychological hump.

Ted Miller: One word: Arrrrrghhh!

Everyone knows Oregon's visit to USC on Nov. 3 could be epic. And I've already written about a potential trap game for the Ducks being their visit to California on Nov. 10, the weekend after The Weekend.

Ah, but here's a thought: Oregon has yet to face plant against an inferior team under Chip Kelly. The closest thing to that was a loss at Stanford in 2009, but that was a good Cardinal team.

And so we have the Ducks, almost certainly unbeaten and untested at 4-0, driving up to Seattle to take on Washington State in CenturyLink Field on Sept. 29. The Cougars also could be 4-0. And dangerous.

Fear the Pirate, Oregon. This game smacks of a "I'm baaaaack" opportunity for Mike Leach.

This will be the first road game for whomever wins the Ducks quarterback job. While it doesn't truly qualify as a home game for the Cougars, they should have a crowd advantage. More important, they will have a major experience advantage at QB with Jeff Tuel. Further, you might recall that Washington State played a competitive game in Autzen Stadium last year. The Cougars trailed only 15-10 at the half and actually outgained Oregon 463 yards to 456. It was 29-20 Ducks with four minutes left in the third before De'Anthony Thomas did his thing on a 93-yard kickoff return for a TD.

What happens if Leach's spread passing attack marries perfectly with Tuel and a deep crew of receivers against a Ducks secondary that is talented but still fairly young, particularly at cornerback? What happens if the Ducks offense, gulp, sputters with a young QB on the road?

A long shot, yes. Kelly's Ducks have been notably impressive with their ability to maintain focus each week the past three years. You know: A nameless faceless opponent each Saturday.

Only Leach isn't a nameless, faceless opponent. Everyone knows who he is. And he's tricky. And he's one coach who won't be outsmarted by Kelly.

At the very least, this one should be an interesting test for both teams. And the Cougs have a puncher's -- passer's? -- shot at pulling a shocker.

So where do things stand after spring practices and heading into the offseason? Let's see.

(You can check out our January power rankings here).

1. USC: The Trojans are expected to contend for the national title (typing that strikes up a not-unfamiliar feeling). Best starting 24 -- specialists included -- in conference and probably in the nation. Some nagging depth questions. Key is staying healthy, particularly on the lines and at running back.

2. Oregon: Marcus Mariota's spring performance made everyone forget Darron Thomas leaving early, even if it's uncertain Mariota will win the QB job over Bryan Bennett. Defense should be among the best in the conference. Ducks and Trojans meet in the Coliseum on Nov. 3. May be the national game of the year.

3. Stanford: There will be a drop-off post-Andrew Luck, but as long as the running game and front seven on defense remain intact, it won't be as severe as most think, especially since the Cardinal have the exact same schedule as last season.

4. Utah: Best defensive line in the conference. That alone should win the Utes a game or two. And it's good that QB Jordan Wynn is again healthy. Still, Utes need to beat the upper-echelon teams (and stop losing to the lower ones) to really show they have arrived in the conference.

5. Washington: Potentially strong on offense with QB Keith Price, but the line needs to get healthy, and you don't replace Chris Polk with RB-by-committee. The defense should be better with coordinator Justin Wilcox. Still, the power rankings are like Missouri: You've got to Show Me. And, gosh, that early-season schedule is BRUTAL.

6. California: QB Zach Maynard had a strong spring, according to coach Jeff Tedford. Pair that with an A-list receiver in Keenan Allen, good depth at running back and a potent defense, and the Bears could climb these rankings. Check that. Cal stinks. Turrible. There. That should help.

7. UCLA: There is enough overall speed and talent to make an impact for the "defending South champs." The new spread offense could be sneaky-good if the Bruins ever figure out who is going to run it. The switch to a 3-4 defense is a good move for the available talent.

8. Washington State: Of the four new coaches, it's Mike Leach who will probably have the biggest impact early on. Receiver might be the Cougars' deepest position, and quarterback Jeff Tuel can spread it around. Both lines are questions.

9. Oregon State: QB Sean Mannion should be better in his sophomore year, and he has some good targets, starting with Markus Wheaton. Solid at running back and in the secondary. But what about those lines? Really, the Beavers' getting back to a bowl game will end up being about the hogs stepping up.

10. Arizona: QB Matt Scott and the offense have a chance to be good in Year 1 with Rich Rodriguez, though Scott might not be able to run too much option because there's no backup QB. There's talent in the secondary, particularly if Jonathan McKnight comes back healthy in the fall after missing all of 2011 with a knee injury. But there are significant questions at linebacker. And who's going to rush the passer?

11. Arizona State: There's nice depth at running back, and the offensive line was solid during spring practices. The return of LB Brandon Magee will help the defense, as much for his positive leadership as his skill. But there's uncertainty at quarterback, receiver, linebacker and safety.

12. Colorado: The most crushing injury this spring was Buffaloes WR Paul Richardson blowing out his knee. On the plus side, the offensive line looks solid, and Tony Jones stepped up at running back. If everyone stays -- or gets -- healthy, the linebackers will be first-rate. And DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe could be a breakout player. But there are huge questions at receiver, on the defensive line and in the secondary. Colorado may play as many freshmen as any team in the country this year.

Three consecutive Heisman Trophy runners-up, two consecutive BCS bowl games and final top-10 rankings: Hey, Stanford's special run of football success was fun to watch. It was neat seeing the most academically elite university playing BCS football whipping the big boys.

But we all know it can't possibly last, right? Jim Harbaugh built it and he's gone. Andrew Luck was a once-in-a-generation quarterback, and he's gone. And he took with him three other offensive players among the first 42 selections in the NFL draft over the weekend.

While the Cardinal certainly had more than 15 minutes of fame, it's time for this program to go back to its familiar brainiac territory -- Faulkner, computer chips and advanced algorithms. Leave big-time football the USCs, Alabamas and Ohio States of the nation.

Yes, such talk has worked its way across the grid, onto the Farm and into the Stanford locker room.

"We've talked about that," coach David Shaw said. "But we've also talked about that there can't be anything outside of our meeting rooms that motivates us. The motivation has to come from within. It's the only way that it is real. The only way that it is legitimate. But we've heard it. We know where we're ranked. But preseason rankings don't matter. Postseason rankings do."

In other words, the Cardinal believe reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

"They said the same thing when Toby [Gerhart] left and when Harbaugh left," outside linebacker Chase Thomas said. "We're pretty confident. We know what we bring to the table."

Of course, things change. No team can easily replace four elite NFL draft picks from its offense. That's why Stanford may be more about defense in the early going of 2012. Thomas leads a crew of six returning starters from a unit that ranked among the nation's top 30 in both scoring and total defense. The Cardinal's front seven in their 3-4 scheme appears to be particularly strong. Few teams in the nation will be as deep at linebacker, with Thomas and inside linebacker Shayne Skov both rating as potential All-Americans.

But what about that offense? The competition to replace Luck wasn't resolved this spring, with neither Josh Nunes nor Brett Nottingham demonstrating much consistency. And whoever wins the job won't have tackle Jonathan Martin protecting his blind side, or guard David DeCastro grinding defensive linemen into hamburger, or tight end Coby Fleener sprinting open down the middle with his 6-foot-6 self.

"We will continue our commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage," coordinator Pep Hamilton said. "We're going to run power. I don't see us changing much. If anything, if we have a few more opportunities to run power, we'll do that."

That means leaning on running back Stepfan Taylor, who has rushed for 2,770 yards and 27 TDs over the previous three seasons, and a deep stable of backs. That means leaning on a tight end combination -- Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo -- that is as good as any in the nation, even without Fleener.

Receiver and offensive line? Those two spots remain questions, though the line will welcome back three starters.

Existing talent, however, doesn't tell the whole story of Stanford's potential for sustaining success. The incoming recruiting class is a significant chapter. Rivals ranked it fifth in the nation, Scout seventh and ESPN Recruiting 12th. No team in the nation came close to collecting as many elite offensive linemen: guard Joshua Garnett (Puyallup, Wash./Puyallup), Andrus Peat (Tempe, Ariz./Corona Del Sol) and offensive tackle Kyle Murphy (San Clemente, Calif./San Clemente).

Shaw isn't afraid to play the young guys, either. True freshmen will get opportunities on both sides of the ball, including the offensive line.

"There's a reason why we recruited a couple of big-timers at those positions," he said. "They will have an opportunity to play if not start at the left tackle position."

Instead of going away, Stanford may well have found a perfect formula that Harbaugh generated and Shaw has refined. Stanford has a lot to sell a certain type of athlete, one who is equal parts brains and brawn. Despite what many folks think about young athletes, there are plenty who want to challenge themselves intellectually before playing football on Sundays.

"This is a special place that attracts a certain kind of person," said Shaw, a former Stanford player himself. "The GPAs in this recruiting class are high, even positions where they are not always high. Our lowest receiver GPA is a 3.4. Not regular GPA, core GPA. These guys are good students and tough kids."

But how fast are they? A 3.4 is nice, but what about 4.4? The one thing that has held Stanford back is a lack of elite speed all over the field, particularly in the secondary and at receiver. Shaw said they "are getting closer" in terms of speed, but he also admitted that the Cardinal -- just like every other Pac-12 program -- have a bit of an Oregon problem. They are 23-1 versus everyone else over the past two seasons, outscoring those foes 1,024-405. Against the Ducks, Stanford is 0-2, outscored 105-61.

Does Stanford have an "Oregon problem?"

"That's a great question," Shaw said. "I'd like to have a survey on your website if anybody has some ideas. Chip [Kelly] does a phenomenal job."

While Shaw is said this in a good-humored way, it's clear that he and his coaches have spent plenty of time thinking about the Ducks. They recall beating them 51-42 in 2009, particularly how they handled the ebbs and flows of momentum. They know it's about preventing big plays and not wasting opportunities on offense. They know it's about tempo, a pitched battle of contrasting styles. Oregon wants to play fast and slash you. Stanford wants to slow things down and pound you.

At least one insider believes Stanford will sustain its recent run of success.

"Absolutely. Hopefully they do better than we did," Luck said. "I think there are a lot of great players here, starting at the top with the coaching staff. Great players, great recruiting classes. They will only continue to get better."

As for what Stanford will be in 2012, its first season of the post-Luck era, Shaw thinks his team will have the same tough-guy persona. But it'll be angrier.

"We're going to go right at people and hit them in the mouth," he said. "And it helps to feel like you're disrespected."

The inevitable is now official. Former Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is an Indianapolis Colt.

Commissioner Roger Goodell had announced the 2012 NFL draft was open and Luck was on the phone with the Colts no more than 15 seconds later.

He got big hugs from head coach David Shaw and teammate Coby Fleener as he made his way to center stage.

"It was everything I thought it would be," Luck told ESPN's Suzy Kolber about the experience of being picked No. 1 overall. "I feel so blessed, so fortunate to be in this situation. I can't wait to start with the Colts."

And what can Indianapolis fans expect from Luck following a 2-14 season?

"Hope for the best," Luck said. "We'll come in and work hard. I know there are a lot of great guys in the locker room already. I feel so honored and so grateful to be able to represent this city now and be part of a team."

Luck becomes the fourth Stanford quarterback selected No. 1 overall, joining Bobby Garrett (1954), Jim Plunkett (1971) and John Elway (1983). Stanford is the only school that has produced four quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall.

Other Pac-12 players:

• Despite a trade, the Minnesota Vikings still got the man they were targeting all along, USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil. Cleveland traded up to the No. 3 spot where the Browns took Alabama running back Trent Richardson. The 6-foot-6, 306-pound Kalil went to the Vikings with the No. 4 pick. He becomes the 76th first round draft pick in USC history and the 22nd USC Trojan offensive lineman drafted in the first round. He's the highest drafted USC lineman since Tony Boselli (1995, second overall).
• Then, there was a long, somewhat surprising lull for the conference. Stanford guard David DeCastro, whom most mock drafts had going in the teens, slipped down to No. 24 where the Pittsburgh Steelers got some pretty good value with the No. 1 guard in the draft. DeCastro was the third offensive lineman taken after Kalil and Iowa offensive tackle Riley Reiff, who went one pick earlier at No. 23 to the Detroit Lions.
• Between the picks of Kalil and DeCastro, there were 13 defensive players taken to just six offensive. That run on defense benefited USC defensive end Nick Perry, who was drafted by the Green Bay Packers at No. 28. He'll join former Trojan Clay Matthews in the Packers' 3-4 scheme. Perry was considered a first/second-round tweener but lands in a pretty good spot.
• With just those four being taken, Fleener and Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin are still on the board. Both were considered potential first round picks -- but Martin's stock had been sliding over the last few weeks while Fleener's star was on the rise. Once thought to be a pipe dream a couple of weeks ago, might we see the Luck-to-Fleener connection in Indianapolis after all?

Catching up on the week in Stanford recruiting. This is shaping up to be the-one-that-got-away edition.

It looks like Stanford probably isn't going to get Trent Hosick (Kansas City, Mo.), who has his heart set on playing quarterback in college. He told ESPN.com's Damon Sayles that Stanford was one of the latest schools trying to convert him to another position — but his heart is set on being a signal-caller.

It’s still a sense of, ‘Wow, what an honor. They brought in Barry Sanders Jr. at running back for the 2012 class, and they were interested in me at running back for the 2013 class. Stanford’s a great school, and I’d get the chance to play with [Staley teammate] Nathanael [Lohn] again.

They recognize my athleticism, and that’s honorable, but at the same time, my goal is to help my team win a national championship. I feel the best way for me to do that is to play quarterback. I have the opportunity to play quarterback at many places, so that’s what I’m going to do.

Meanwhile, more details are emerging about cornerback Chris Hawkins and his decision to go with USC over Stanford.

He was originally going to give the Cardinal verbal commitment last month, though a last-minute conversation with some members of the USC coaching staff changed his mind. Here are some outtakes from a nice piece by Erik McKinney .

While Hawkins was initially drawn to Stanford by its academic prowess and 3-1 record against USC on the football field over the past four years, he said things began to shift the closer he studied it.

“The academics Stanford has are great, but USC sort of has the same academic stature,” he said. “I don’t plan on moving out of California after my career is done, so a USC degree is just as valuable as one from Stanford.

“... I was thinking about Stanford all the time. But I couldn’t decide what school to go to. I would be doing homework and I would just have to stop everything I was doing. There was a lot going on in my head.”

In other Stanford recruiting news:

• Offensive lineman Tyrone Crowder (Rockingham, N.C.) picked up his 15th offer. This one from Miami. But he told ESPN.com's Jamie Newberg he's holding out for No. 16 : "Stanford said that they are waiting on my test score. That would be a great one for me."
• Defensive end Jordan Sherit (Tampa, Fla.) continues to be sought after by multiple schools, writes Bob Przybylo . Oklahoma has now entered the mix, though Sherit reiterated his interest in the Cardinal: "I'm not going to make a commitment until I've seen all of the schools I'm interested in. That will mean a lot of traveling so it's going to be some time. I'm not as much interested in the wins and losses as I am the relationship I have with the coaches and how I feel on the campus."
• Linebacker Ben Boulware picked Clemson over Stanford, UCLA and others .
• Linebacker Alex Anzalone (Wyomissing, Pa.) is planning to visit Stanford this week, according to ESPN's Jared Shanker .
• Linebacker Shane Jones (Cincinnati) believes Stanford could be knocking soon. He told Shanker : "When you think of Stanford, you think of the school, but now you have a football team that's turning it around and competing in the BCS."

Stanford's secondary is going to be young next season. Not exactly breaking news, but that's the reality when four seniors, three of them starters, graduate. But the players returning also have some experience and quality playing time, which should help compensate for their youth.

In other words, there no excuses.

"I think [defensive coordinator Derek] Mason might have been a little more tolerant with us last year, a little more patient," said safety Jordan Richards. "Not anymore. We've all been here and have a full season under our belts. This is on us -- and coach Mason is making sure we know that."

The back four -- two cornerbacks and two safeties -- have to be getting tired of hearing how good the front seven is going to be. They are so experienced. This guy is back and that guy is back. It gets old. And if the front seven is considered Stanford's defensive strength, by virtue of elimination, the back four can't be.

That perception is something the group is looking to alter. But first they'll need to settle some competition. Gone are safeties Delano Howell and Michael Thomas. Gone are cornerbacks Johnson Bademosi and Corey Gatewood.

Terrence Brown and Barry Browning are back at cornerback, along with the highly-touted Wayne Lyons who is returning from a foot injury. Usua Amanam should also be in the mix and don't be surprised if Alex Carter makes an immediate impact when he arrives in the summer. Also returning are Richards and Devon Carrington at the safety spot along with Ed Reynolds, who is also returning from injury. Kyle Olugbode has also seen reps this spring.

Richards was one of the true freshman called into action when Howell went down for several games with a hand injury. He started three games for Stanford last year -- the most brutal stretch of the season that included at USC, at Oregon State and home to Oregon. Tough detail.

"It was, at times, a blur," Richards said. "And other times, I felt like I was in control and the game slowed."

The telling part of that quote is the "at times" portion. Richards notched eight tackles in his first start against USC. Then a couple of games later he watched Oregon run all over the Cardinal. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. In his second year, he's striving for more consistency. And having had the chance to learn behind Thomas and Howell, he thinks he's found it.

"I learned how to see the game from those guys," Richards said. "As a freshman, you come in with tunnel vision. You need to learn to see how things move around. Now it's a transition. You've been here for a year, you learn to read formational cues and the game slows down a lot more. You know what the offensive tendencies are. That's the biggest difference. You're not a deer in the headlights anymore. You just go out and play and try not to over think it."

Brown has the most experience at cornerback, followed by Browning who started three games last season. According to Richards, Brown and Reynolds have taken on the leadership roles vacated by the departed seniors.

"As a group, it's been TB and Ed," Richards said. "Those guys have been around. But we all know what's at stake, and we're all trying to be leaders and be on our game as a group because we know that we are going to be young and people are going to try to come after us."

Like in Week 3, when the Cardinal host USC -- a pass happy offense with the Heisman front-runner at quarterback, the top wide receiving duo in the country and possibly the No. 1-ranked team in the nation. So this group is going to have to find a way to come together quickly.

"That's what the spring is all about," Richards said. "We're working hard to be a cohesive group. Coach Mason is pushing us and I think we're going to come together."

Is David Shaw one of the top two or three coaches in the Pac-12? No.

How about top five? Nope.

Top half? Top 8? Negative.

Not if you buy the recent rankings by Athlon Sports, which has Shaw as the No. 9 rated coach in the Pac-12 conference.

Before we dive into that, let's review the list:

1. Chip Kelly, Oregon
2. Lane Kiffin, USC
3. Mike Leach, Washington State
4. Kyle Whittingham, Utah
5. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
6. Steve Sarkisian, Washington
7. Mike Riley, Oregon State
8. Jeff Tedford, Cal
9. David Shaw, Stanford
10. Todd Graham, Arizona State
11. Jim Mora, UCLA
12. Jon Embree, Colorado

No doubt, Kelly belongs at the top. If anyone wants to make an argument for anyone else -- I'd love to hear it. Kelly is clearly the top coach in the conference.

But it starts to get muddled after No. 1. When I first saw the headline, my initial thought for Shaw was in two-three-four range. But as I kept scrolling down, I was pretty surprised to see him at No. 9.

The biggest argument against Shaw is that he doesn't have a body of work yet as a head coach. It seems like the question mark from the Athlon folks is that they don't know what Shaw can do without a Harbaugh or a Luck next to his name.

There is much to like about Shaw and there is much that is still unknown. This fall will feature the first in Palo Alto without a Harbaugh or a Luck on the roster and it falls to Shaw to maintain an unprecedented level of success. Jim Harbaugh deserves all of the credit for re-establishing the Cardinal brand nationwide and developing Andrew Luck into the best player in the nation the last two years. Replacing two first-round offensive linemen will also be an issue for Stanford in 2012. Shaw is steeped in Stanford tradition as a player and son of a coach for the Cardinal, but legacy alone won’t keep Shaw in Bob Bowlsby’s good graces. This is one name that could be ranked much higher (or lower) on this list come next offseason.

I think it's a bit of a sweeping statement to say Harbaugh deserves all of the credit. Shaw, after all, played a huge role in recruiting Luck. He also recruited a large portion of Harbaugh's players and ran Harbaugh's offense for four seasons. And he's the reigning Pac-12 Coach of the Year. Doesn't that count for anything?

As fate would have it, I was plugging away at this post yesterday afternoon when my cell rang and Shaw's picture appeared. After we got done swapping stock tips and talking about which Hunger Games characters we were going to dress as for the big premier, I figured it was worth asking his opinion on such polls and how he felt about his ninth-ranked status.

"No reaction at all," said Shaw, never one for chest-puffing. "I have no problem with that. I'm a one-year head coach and a lot of people attribute the team's success to Andrew -- justifiably so. A lot of people attribute it to Jim Harbaugh. Me, honestly, that's fine. As long as Bob Bowlsby likes the job that I'm doing and I can keep this job -- hopefully for the next 15-20 years -- I can be the last-ranked coach as long as we keep winning games and going to bowl games, I'm fine.

"Rankings don't win games."

Shaw has an NFL pedigree that few coaches on this list can match. I'm not saying he should be No. 2. You can make arguments, I think, for Shaw, Leach, Whittingham or Kiffin in the No. 2 spot. And they would all have merit. (I'm actually leaning toward Whittingham, having seen his success over the years during my time covering the Mountain West).

But when you consider the recruiting class Shaw brought in this year -- which had absolutely nothing to do with Harbaugh or Luck -- and the way he schemed the offense this season to compensate for a lack of overwhelming wide receiver talent, you have to think that warrants more than being the No. 9 guy in the conference. Think of the triple-tight formations and the plays with eight offensive linemen. Pretty innovative stuff.

Consider some of the immeasurables that Shaw was dealing with this season. He had a glaring spotlight already with the departure of Harbaugh and the return of Luck. He had to replace three offensive linemen with first-year starters, had a shaky receiving corps and had to fill both coordinator spots. The dice were equally loaded for success or failure. It's too dismissive to say he was just riding the coattails of Harbaugh and Luck because Shaw's fingerprints were all over the 2011 team. And give credit to the rest of his staff. Shaw brought in Mike Bloomgren, Jason Tarver, Ron Crook and Mike Sanford -- all of whom were major contributors to the team's success. Hiring solid coaches is an important element that often gets overlooked.

Was he perfect? Nope. Not even close. Find me a coach who is. I'll wait ... ... ... I can count on one hand the number of times I questioned a Shaw decision or play call.

I like Shaw's demeanor -- calm most of the time but fiery when he has to be. I like the pro-style, balanced approach to offense, and I like how he's a tireless advocate for his players.

All of the above don't make Shaw the No. 1 coach in the conference. But it doesn't make him No. 9, either.

Which QB should go No. 1 overall in the NFL draft on April 26?

Forget the NFL scouts and GMs: You decide whether Stanford's Andrew Luck or Baylor's Robert Griffin III looks better at his pro day in front of salivating NFL personnel men.

You can watch Griffin's pro day at Baylor on Wednesday at noon ET, live on ESPN3.

And you can watch Luck on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET, live on ESPN3 as well.

While it's widely viewed as a lock that Luck goes first, it nonetheless will be interesting to see if one or the other earns a better grade for his accuracy and arm strength after neither threw for scouts at the combine.

Mel Kiper's Big Board is out -- along with updated mock drafts from Kiper and Todd McShay.

First, taking at look at McShay's mock draft and Kiper's mock draft, they agree on the top three: Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck to the Indianapolis Colts, Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon to the St. Louis Rams and USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil to the Minnesota Vikings.

Both have praise for Luck:

McShay: It's never easy to say goodbye to a legend like Peyton Manning -- a Super Bowl winner and the face of the franchise since his first day in training camp -- but using the No. 1 overall pick on a once-in-a-generation prospect like Luck is an opportunity the Colts can't pass up. Luck's NFL-ready skill set and demeanor sets Indianapolis up for another decade-plus with one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Kiper: No change here, even with the change to the future of Peyton Manning. Luck was going to land with the Colts; it was only a matter of whether he'd be serving an apprenticeship. I'm interested to see if he gets a deal done well before the draft so he can dive into the playbook. You know the scouting report. Arm strength, talent, size, smarts, leadership, intangibles -- it's all there. Luck is currently working hard out in Palo Alto to further refine his talents.

And for Kalil:

McShay: The Vikings just missed out on being able to cash in with the second overall pick, but with Baylor QB Robert Griffin III likely to be the pick there, Minnesota is in a position to finally begin shoring up its offensive line with an elite prospect. Kalil is one of the top left tackles I have ever evaluated coming out of college, with a skill set equal to Joe Thomas and a mean streak to go with it.

Kiper: This is one I'm going to stick with. I've liked the pick since the first mock, and I don't see a reason to change. Minnesota needs an upgrade at left tackle, and Kalil is the rare one who could step into that position right away at the NFL level. There's a lot of talk about which quarterback will go where right now, but this pick is about keeping Christian Ponder upright for the Vikings. They won't know what they have unless they can block for him. And it's obvious this will help the running game, too.

But Pac-12 fans -- especially those of the Cardinal persuasion -- will notice one major difference between the two mocks. One has Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin listed. The other doesn't.

McShay has Martin going No. 13 overall to the Arizona Cardinals. Kiper, however, doesn't have Martin in the first round. This is the first time we haven't seen Martin in the first-round projections. During the season, Martin was widely regarded as the No. 2 offensive tackle off the board behind Kalil. McShay has Martin as the third OT off the board. Kiper has three offensive tackles listed in the first round. In his ranking of the top five players by position, he has Martin listed as the fifth tackle.

The other Pac-12 discrepancy is with USC's Nick Perry. Kiper lists him as a first-round pick at linebacker. Perry, however, doesn't appear on McShay's board. Both include Stanford offensive guard David DeCastro and Stanford tight end Coby Fleener.

Looking at Kiper's Big Board, Martin no longer appears in his top 25, but Oregon running back LaMichael James makes his first appearance.

Sprinter's speed, and enough size to not be considered merely an occasional home run threat. James is explosive, has good hands and won't shy away from running between the tackles.

Bob in Omaha writes: [David] Shaw said that the QB competition is open -- but sometimes that's just how coaches talk. You've got to think Brett Nottingham has the lead. How surprised would you be if Nottingham didn't win the job?

Kevin Gemmell: I can't say I'd be too blown away if one of the other guys wins the job. It's not like it's Nottingham and four scrubs who are there to fill out a jersey. These were all legitimate, highly respected high school quarterbacks. Remember, Nottingham was the No. 4 quarterback coming out of spring ball last year and once Josh Nunes got hurt, he beat out Robbie Picazo for the backup job. Shaw speaks highly of Kevin Hogan. I saw Evan Crower play in high school. Kid's good. So no, it wouldn't be totally surprising if someone else wins out. With that said, yes, you have to believe that Nottingham has at least a tiny edge -- not just because he was the backup quarterback last year -- but because he held on to the backup role all season. No doubt, he was pressed by other guys during the course of the year. How much? I honestly can't say because practices were closed, and we don't know how much Nunes' foot injury lingered during the year. But just because you win a job in August doesn't mean you're guaranteed to still have it in November. The fact that Nottingham did is a piece of the puzzle that I think often gets overlooked.

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Eric in Bangkok writes: Are we likely to see more three-tight-end stuff in Stanford's future? Or was that a temporary response to a specific context?

Kevin Gemmell: As long as Shaw is the head coach and Pep Hamilton is the offensive coordinator -- I can assure you the three-tight-end package doesn't leave with Coby Fleener. Now, will they run it as frequently as they did last season? Probably not. You adjust the scheme to fit the talents of your team. And when you have a Fleener-type player, you find ways to let him stretch the field. Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo are great tight ends. But Fleener did some things better than them -- just as they do some things better than Fleener. We saw Ryan Hewitt step up and play more tight end when Ertz went down. Wouldn't be surprised if there are a few packages in place next season with him as the third tight end and Geoff Meinken at fullback. Without Fleener, however, I think you have to start getting the wide receivers more involved in the passing game. Stanford was able to rely on the tight ends because of what that trio could do on the field at the same time. With the dynamics shifting, I think it has to be a priority for the wide receivers to take a more prominent role in the passing attack.

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Tom in Menlo Park, Calif., writes: Hey Kevin, I've seen it mentioned numerous times with respect to Jonathan Martin & David DeCastro's draft prospects that OGs like DeCastro do not typically go in the first round (making it all the more impressive that DeCastro is projected to) whereas it is common for OTs. Can you discuss a bit about the reasons for the greater demand for tackles in terms of NFL team needs and the different skill sets for the two positions?

Kevin Gemmell: As in most things, demand is dictated by supply -- and good offensive tackles are in rarer supply than guards -- especially in the NFL. Once you get to the pro game, the best defensive linemen are typically the faster, more athletic guys on the outside. So you have to have your best athletes on the outside to hold them off. This requires a different type of player -- including physical frame. Guards like DeCastro have to be more explosive for pulling. DeCastro is a born run-blocker. Martin is better in pass protection. That's his physical makeup. Consider their combine measurables. Both checked in at 6-foot-5 -- DeCastro at 316 pounds and Martin at 312. But Martin has almost an inch and a half on DeCastro in reach. He's a longer player, and that's the physical makeup needed for tackles. Guys like Martin and USC's Matt Kalil are immovable objects -- and that's what's needed in the NFL. Plus, it's always easier to give help in a blocking scheme to the inside than it is the outside. You have fullbacks and running backs that can offer assistance on blitzes and centers can double-team on the inside. I'm not saying that guards are inferior players to tackles. Because they aren't. They just have a different frame and skill set required for the position. You hear cornerbacks use the expression "being out on an island." A lot of times it's the same for tackles -- who are out on the island one-on-one against the best pass-rushers. You're more likely to see college tackles move over to guard than vice versa. There are always exceptions, but that's the conventional thinking.

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John in Phoenix writes: I attended the same high school as Anthony Wilkerson, so I'd really like to see him do well. I thought he showed signs of brilliance last year in his limited playing time. He looks explosive and powerful and wondered why he didn't get more carries. What do you think his role will be next year with the return of [Tyler] Gaffney and [Stepfan] Taylor, and now with the addition of [Barry] Sanders?

Kevin Gemmell: I think the biggest issue with Wilkerson last season was that he just never really got enough carries in a game to get into a rhythm. He'd have a lot of 1-yard, 2-yard runs in one game and then bust out a 38-yard run the next game. He started as the first guy off the bench to spell Taylor, but Gaffney moved up the food chain -- and a lot of that had to do with the wildcat package. Again, we're not at practices so we can't really judge what's going on behind the scenes. But the coaching staff saw a reason to give more carries to Gaffney. As for next year, it's just a matter of making the most of his opportunities. Shaw has shown he likes to play freshmen running backs, so if Sanders does play, it's going to cut into Wilkersons' carries even more. Taylor, who accounted for almost 50 percent of the carries last year, is going to be the workhorse again. Wilkerson needs to find his niche. For Gaffney, it started as the wildcat guy and grew into a more prominent role. Jeremy Stewart was the short-yardage guy. As long as Wilkerson is tagged as that change-of-pace guy, he's probably not going to see those 10-15 carries each week that would allow him to get into the flow of a game.

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Sam in New York writes: Are any of Stanford's incoming recruits enrolled early? Been looking around all over the web but haven't found anything. Interested to know if anyone from this talented class will be playing spring ball.

Kevin Gemmell: Shaw actually isn't a big fan of the early-admission process. Back in December, he talked about a study he and Jim Harbaugh did and they found that high school players entering early really had no significant advantage -- and were in fact more likely to get injured. He'd rather they take the extra six months -- enjoy the high school experience, play a winter or spring sport, and then get on the Stanford training regimen in the summer.

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Peter in Nor Cal writes: Hey Kevin, would you take a crack at predicting the state of affairs for Stanford Football 3, 5, and 10 years down the line? What will our record be, who will be coaching, what (if any) bowl will we be in, etc. Thanks for all the reporting on Stanford.

Kevin Gemmell: Boy, where's Carnac the Magnificent when you need him (everyone under the age of 30, start Googling). OK, let's see. Well, three years down the line I'd expect the Cardinal will be looking for another outstanding offensive line class because the bulk of this year's group will be heading to the draft. I'd be shocked if Pep Hamilton and Derek Mason haven't gotten head coaching gigs somewhere in three to five years. I'd imagine Shaw is still the head coach in five years. The lure to return to the NFL might tempt him five years from now -- especially if he's offered an offensive coordinator or head-coaching job. But unless he has back-to-back 0-12 seasons and a heap of NCAA violations, I don't see him ever getting fired. He's an alumnus, he loves the school and the program and if he's still head coach in 2022, I wouldn't be all that surprised. As for records -- well, with this recruiting momentum, I don't see any sub-.500 seasons on the horizon for the next five years. But after that, who knows? One off recruiting class can set a program back half a decade. I think this is a good staff with good recruiters. I see no reason why they don't keep the momentum they've established rolling along. As for future bowl games -- if they can crack a BCS game within five years of the post-Andrew Luck era, I'd say Shaw has done a heck of a job. This year's offensive-line class is going to pay off in recruiting quarterbacks for the next couple of years, so you can expect some of the top QBs -- who also meet the Cardinal academic standards -- will give Stanford a good, long look.

With the combine completed, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay have updated their respective rankings and boards. Kiper also offers his winners from the combine and those leaving us with questions.

Some of the Pac-12 winners include LaMichael James (Oregon, RB), Coby Fleener (Stanford, TE) and Matt Kalil (USC, OT).

If Fleener runs in the 4.5 range at his pro day, he could be in the first round. The Giants make sense. He is now an option as the first tight end off the board.

Question mark players include Vontaze Burfict (ASU, LB), Cliff Harris (Oregon, DB) and Marc Tyler (USC, RB).

(On Burfict) He already carries attitude questions, and Burfict needed to turn heads with workouts. Heads were turned, but for the wrong reason. He looked sluggish, to put it mildly. Once a first-round guy, he could be in the middle rounds if he doesn't recover.

Yikes.

Kiper also updated his top five players by position. The conference is well represented with Andrew Luck (Stanford, QB), James, Rhett Ellison (USC, FB), Fleener, Kalil, Jonathan Martin (Stanford, OT), David DeCastro (Stanford, OG), Burfict and Bryan Anger (Cal, P) and appearing in the top three of their respective position groups.

Finally, the rankings. No shock that Kiper and McShay both have Luck as the No. 1 overall pick. Here's McShay's take:

Luck's combine workout showed he is more athletic than most thought, and combined with his once-in-a-generation skill set he appears to be a lock as the No. 1 overall pick to the Colts.

Other conference players appearing in McShay's top 32 are Kalil, DeCastro, Martin and Brock Osweiler (ASU, QB).

While McShay ranks Robert Griffin III second, Kiper has Kalil in the No. 2 spot.

Kalil confirmed that he is a good athlete for his position. The tape is great, and it's hard to see him falling outside the top five. The plus for him is he might not need time to develop at right tackle, a common break-in spot for many left tackles.

Mel Kiper's weekly Big Board has been updated again , with no change in the top two spots. The Pac-12 owns them both with Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck locked in to the No. 1 spot and USC tackle Matt Kalil holding steady at No. 2

But a third Pac-12 player cracked the top 10 this week with Stanford guard David DeCastro climbing from the No. 12 to the No. 10 spot.

Here's Kiper on DeCastro:

Extremely consistent, plus athletic and powerful in the run game. A rare guard who could get some looks in the first round. In fact, this is as high as we've seen an interior lineman in a while.

Stanford tackle Jonathan Martin and ASU linebacker Vontaze Burfict also appear in Kiper's latest top 25.

As a refresher, here's how Kiper rated the top five players at each position.

We've seen David Shaw the offensive coordinator; David Shaw the head coach, recruiter and motivator. We've seen the David Shaw who gets perturbed when his strategies are questioned and the David Shaw who is humbled by praise and deflects kudos onto his assistants and players.

But there's one David Shaw we're yet to see: David Shaw the disciplinarian.

While so much of the attention heading into next season's opener against San Jose State was going to focus on who would start at quarterback, now we must also turn our attention to the defensive side of the ball and wonder who will be starting at inside linebacker. And for all the wrong reasons.

If memory serves, there were no players suspended or forced to miss time for violating team rules in the 2011 season. If there were, it wasn't made public and they weren't starters. But Shayne Skov is one of the best linebackers in the country, a poster boy for hard work and probably the most visible player on the 2012 roster. Whatever course of action Shaw takes in dealing with Skov's reported DUI will serve as a precedent for how all other disciplinary actions are taken.

I think it's safe to assume he's not going to dismiss Skov from the team -- as Mike Leach did yesterday with Washington State linebacker C.J. Mizell. Skov has neither the history nor the offense to warrant that severe of a punishment. He's a good teammate, a good student -- and if you work in the media -- a pretty good quote. All in all, he's a good guy who made a beyond-idiotic mistake.

But Shaw can't let this slide with a couple extra laps after practice and a stern talking-to, either. Skov put his life and the lives of others in jeopardy when he decided to knock back x-amount of cocktails and then turn the key.

Shaw hasn't made any comments about the incident other than an official statement issued through the school. But if David Shaw the disciplinarian is anything like the head coach, he'll approach it in the same, cool and even-tempered demeanor in which he approaches most things. But if anyone saw how distressed Shaw was when talking about Skov's injury back in Tucson, or the way he exploded in Pullman following an illegal hit on Chris Owusu, it's clear he loves his players and he's going to have their back. That makes whatever decision to come that much harder.

A suspension is certainly in order. How many games is the question. Clouding the issue is Skov's health. He's still recovering from a knee injury and we won't know if he'll be 100 percent to start the season. If he is fully healthy -- and he's suspended for the San Jose State and Duke games -- that seems fair.

But if he's still a couple of weeks away from being healthy when the season starts -- and he's suspended for both of those games -- is it really a just punishment? Suspending him for games he might have not played in -- or only played a minor role -- seems like doling out discipline with a dust pan rather than an iron fist.

Which brings us to the third game of the season: USC. This is one of the marquee games on Stanford's 2012 schedule and a true measuring stick for the Cardinal in the post-Andrew Luck era. Stanford doesn't need Skov to beat USC. Stanford doesn't need Skov at all -- for that matter. But they are a better team with him.

Whatever punishment Skov is to serve should begin when he's ready to play football. If that's the third game of the season, so be it. Using Skov's injury as a subterfuge for suspension would be letting him off the hook and a disservice to the position Shaw holds.

Shaw is, above all, a Stanford man. Now it's up to him -- David Shaw the disciplinarian -- to back up the ideals he so frequently preaches.

Going to Stanford doesn't prevent you from doing stupid things. So we have Cardinal linebacker Shayne Skov, who was arrested and jailed last weekend for driving under the influence.

The Stanford Daily, which first reported the arrest, said Skov "was transported to the San Jose main jail and booked for driving under the influence at 2 a.m. Sunday." He was pulled over in the parking lot of his dormitory.

It will be interesting to see how Stanford handles this. It seems like a serious but isolated incident. Skov is a good student, NFL prospect and a great team leader. If healthy, he likely would rate as the top returning inside linebacker in the Pac-12.

But he's not irreplaceable. Stanford knows this because it played solid defense even after he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the season's third game at Arizona. Skov is still not 100 percent and is not expected to see much action in spring practice.

Of course, with Skov, the Cardinal's 3-4 defense is much better than without him, even with plenty of depth at the position.

"We have an expected standard of excellence and conduct for our players and Shayne failed to adhere to those standards," Stanford coach David Shaw said in a statement released through a team spokesman. "It's a matter we are taking very seriously. Shayne will be responsible to adhere to any legal responsibilities regarding this event along with ramifications which will be determined by the program."

That means the ice under Skov's cleats is thin. The Cardinal open the 2012 season against San Jose State and then play host to Duke. They won't need Skov to win those games, if Shaw opts to suspend him.

But USC comes a-calling in Week 3. Skov's presence would certainly come in handy against Matt Barkley & Co.

Getting a signature from D-lineman Aziz Shittu topped a big national signing day for Stanford, which is challenging USC for the top class in the Pac-12.

Shittu (Atwater, Calif./Buhach Colony) picked the Cardinal over USC, UCLA and California.

In other news:

• QB Cyler Miles flirted with USC but remained true to his commitment to Washington.
• The Huskies also managed to flip athlete Cleveland Wallace (San Jose, Calif./Oak Grove) from Oregon State.
• CB Bryan Harper signed with Arizona, picking the Wildcats over Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA and Washington.
• Athlete Kenneth Walker (Richmond, Calif./Kennedy) picked UCLA over California and Washington.