Stats & Info: Inside Edge

Price, Rays keep rolling at Tropicana Field

May, 5, 2012
May 5
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Kim Klement/US PresswireDavid Price helped the Rays win their 10th straight game at Tropicana Field.
The Tampa Bay Rays scored seven runs in the first four innings to roll past the Oakland Athletics for their 10th straight win at Tropicana Field. That’s the second-longest single-season home winning streak in franchise history, trailing only an 11-game run in 2008.

The Rays are the first American League team to start 13-1 at home since the Minnesota Twins won 14 of their first 15 home games in 2002. In 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers were the last MLB team to start 13-1.

David Price was able to shut down the Athletics with the combination of his fastball and slider.

Sixty-three percent of Price’s pitches were fastballs, and the A’s went 0-for-11 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with the heater.

With two strikes, Price went with his slider to end the at-bat. He threw 11 of his 15 sliders with two strikes and recorded six strikeouts. That’s his most whiffs with the slider since 2009.

He didn’t even need to stay in the zone to retire the opposing hitters. Over half of his pitches (56 of 106) were outside the strike zone. The Athletics swung and missed on 58 percent of pitches outside the zone, including six strikeouts. Price hadn’t induced as many chases on pitches outside the zone in a start since his rookie season.

With the win, Price improves to 30-3 at home in his career when getting at least three runs of support.

Around the Diamond
• Albert Pujols went four at-bats without a home run on Friday. His 108 at-bats without a home run this season are his longest single-season streak in his career, passing a 105 at-bat streak last season. Two long homer droughts were snapped Friday, as Shin-Soo Choo (67 at-bats) and Mark Reynolds (66 at-bats) hit their first of the season.

• Also in Anaheim, the Los Angeles Angels were shut out with Ervin Santana on the hill for the fifth straight time. Thanks to our friends at Elias, we know that this is the first time in major-league history that a starting pitcher has received no run support over five straight starts (11 pitchers had gone four straight starts without a run scored on their behalf).

• Wilson Ramos hit a bases-loaded single in the 10th inning as the Washington Nationals beat the Philadelphia Phillies to pick up their MLB-leading fifth walk-off win of the season.

• Mark Teixeira went 2-for-3 with a home run against Bruce Chen, improving to 11-for-22 with seven homers in his career against Chen. That is the most home runs he has hit against any pitcher in the majors.

• Stephen Strasburg allowed two home runs to right-handed hitters; entering the game, he had only allowed one homer to a righty in his career.

• Jerry Hairston Jr. went deep for the Dodgers, and has now hit a home run for six different teams since 2009. No other player has hit homers for as many teams in the same span.

• The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the New York Mets 5-4, snapping a nine-game losing streak in one-run games. According to Elias, that was the second longest streak in franchise history; the Diamondbacks lost 13 consecutive one-run games in 2004.

• Jamey Carroll singled in the first inning to snap a streak of 47 hitless at-bats for the Twins. Elias reports that it was the longest hitless at-bat streak by a team in a season since the San Diego Padres also went 47 at-bats between hits in June 1995.

Andrew Davis contributed to this post.

For Verlander, some fastballs were too fast

April, 11, 2012
Apr 11
11:52
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Leon Halip/Getty ImagesAfter pitching 16 scoreless innings to start the season, Justin Verlander picked up the Tigers' first loss by allowing four runs in the ninth inning against the Rays.
For eight innings on Wednesday, Justin Verlander pitched like the reigning American League MVP and Cy Young winner. Twenty-three pitches later, the Detroit Tigers were on the way to their first loss of the season.

Verlander needed just 81 pitches to get through the first eight innings against the Tampa Bay Rays with the Tigers leading 2-0. That brought him to 16 scoreless innings with just three hits allowed on the season. In the ninth, he allowed four runs after surrendering three hits and a walk.

Verlander was the first pitcher to throw eight scoreless innings before allowing four or more runs in the ninth inning to take a loss since Tim Hudson for the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 22, 2005, against the Philadelphia Phillies.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he’s the first starting pitcher to pick up a loss after allowing no runs on one hit or fewer in the first eight innings of a game his team led entering the ninth since Mark Langston of the Seattle Mariners in 1989. Langston took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before losing to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Verlander struggled with his fastball in the ninth inning, seemingly from over-throwing the pitch. In his first 16 innings this season, Verlander averaged 93.1 mph on his fastball, reaching a maximum velocity of 97.9. On 13 fastballs in the ninth inning against the Rays, every pitch came in above that average. He measured as high as 99.5 mph and averaged 97.2 during the frame.

Even with the extra oomph, the Rays were able to get to Verlander because he was leaving the ball over the plate. Entering the ninth, opposing hitters were 2-for-25 against Verlander’s fastball as he threw only eight percent down the heart of the plate. In the ninth inning, he threw 31 percent of his fastballs straight down the middle, including two hits by the Rays.

Quick Hits

• With the Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks losing and the Minnesota Twins winning, every major-league team has at least one win and one loss.

• Six days after tying a career-high by allowing 10 hits against the St. Louis Cardinals, Josh Johnson didn’t make it out of the fourth inning against the Phillies after allowing a career-high 11 hits.

• Peter Bourjos hit the second inside-the-park home run in Target Field history. The ball traveled 372 feet and would have been out of 10 ballparks.

• Tim Lincecum lasted just 2⅓ innings against the Colorado Rockies, his shortest outing in 157 career starts.

• The Oakland Athletics won in the bottom of the 12th inning when Jonny Gomes was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded. It was the first time game-ending hit by pitch since … Brad Lidge hit Gomes as the Washington Nationals beat the Philadelphia Phillies on August 21, 2011. From Elias, it was the first game to end with back-to-back hit batters since 1966.

• Stephen Strasburg tossed six scoreless innings, topping 100 pitches for the first time in 19 career starts with the Nationals.
AP Photo/LM OteroNeftali Feliz pitched seven shutout innings in his first major-league start.
Tuesday marked the first major league starts for former bullpen stalwarts Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard. Both were successful in the bullpen, but only one handled the transition well in his debut.

Feliz was facing off with a familiar foe as the Texas Rangers hosted the Seattle Mariners. Entering the game, the Mariners had not recorded a hit in 48 at-bats against Feliz. Justin Smoak finally broke the hitless drought with two outs in the fourth inning.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 58 at-bats before allowing a hit is the longest streak to start a career against one team in the expansion era (since 1961). The record was previously held by Billy Wagner, who held the Pittsburgh Pirates hitless in their first 48 at-bats from 1996 to 2001.

Feliz was able to handle the move to the bullpen by mixing up his pitches. As a reliever, he threw a fastball on 80 percent of his pitches. The first time through the Seattle order on Tuesday, he threw heat on 69 percent of his pitches. After that, he relied on his fastball only 39 percent of the time.

For the game, Feliz mixed in sliders on 26 percent of his pitches and changeups on 23 percent. Mariners hitters were 1-for-8 in at-bats ending with a changeup, including two strikeouts.

Bard wasn’t as fortunate in his transition to the rotation. He allowed five earned runs without recording an out in the sixth inning as the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Boston Red Sox 7-3.

In three years as a reliever, he threw fastballs 71 percent of the time and sliders 21 percent of the time. The key to his success out of the bullpen was his slider. Opponents missed nearly half the times they swung at the pitch. He was able to coax swings on sliders outside the zone nearly a third of the time.

On Tuesday, he threw the slider 35 percent of the time and was just as successful. The Blue Jays missed on nine of their 14 swings against the slider and four of Bard’s six strikeouts came on the pitch. But they were able to tee off on his fastball, getting eight hits in 17 at-bats ending with the pitch.

Bard was unable to establish a third pitch during the game. In the first four innings, he threw only four changeups and all of them missed the strike zone. He found the zone with three of six changeups to his last five batters and induced a groundout by Adam Lind.

Quick hits
Freddy Garcia tied the American League record with five wild pitches in his start against the Baltimore Orioles.

Jayson Werth recorded his eighth career four-hit game, his first since June 27, 2009.

The Detroit Tigers are the last undefeated team in the American League, despite not getting a decision from their starters.

The Atlanta Braves snapped a nine-game losing streak dating to last season with a win at the Houston Astros.

Andre Ethier celebrated his 30th birthday by hitting the game-winning home run in the bottom of the eighth, his 11th career go-ahead home run in the eighth inning or later.

Dan Braunstein contributed to this post.

Lohse stays low to reel in Marlins

April, 5, 2012
Apr 5
12:06
AM ET
Doug Pensinger/Getty ImagesKyle Lohse carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning as the St. Louis Cardinals spoiled the opening of Marlins Park for the hosts.
On the night when Marlins Park opened and the new-look Miami Marlins were looking to take center stage, Kyle Lohse and the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals stole the show.

Lohse carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Jose Reyes led off the inning with a single. Lohse ended up tossing 7⅓ innings and allowing just two hits. He is the first Cardinals pitcher to throw that many innings and allow two or fewer hits on Opening Day since Ernie Broglio in 1963.

Before this game, Lohse’s longest no-hit bid was 5⅓ innings for the Minnesota Twins against the Detroit Tigers on April 3, 2003. This is the third straight season that a pitcher has thrown at least 6 innings before allowing a hit in his team’s opener. Josh Johnson went 6 innings before allowing a hit for the Marlins last year, and Shaun Marcum recorded one more out before surrendering a hit for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010.

Lohse’s success against the Marlins was a tribute to his command. Last season, he was second in the National League in called strike percentage, with 39.1 percent of his strikes being taken by the batter. He was nearly as sharp tonight, with 21 of his 56 strikes (37.5 percent) and two of his three strikeouts on called strikes.

He was also successful in keeping the ball down. Last season opponents hit .213 when Lohse kept the ball down and .295 when the ball was middle or up. Tonight, the Marlins were 0-for-8 with two strikeouts on pitches in the lower third or below the strike zone.

When Mike Matheny pulled Lohse from the game in the eighth inning, it was the first pitching change of his career as a manager. Former Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa holds the major-league record with 12,236 career pitching changes.

Marlins’ starter Josh Johnson allowed 10 hits in a game for just the second time in his career. After allowing only one first-inning run in nine starts last season, he allowed two runs in the first inning against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals were the first defending World Series champion to win their opener since the Boston Red Sox in 2008. The last three champions had lost on Opening Day.
There were a number of strong performances on the mound Monday. Here's a look at how some of Monday's pitchers got the job done:

How Chicago White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle shut out the Minnesota Twins:
Mark Buehrle
Buehrle

• Buehrle struck out four in 7 2/3 scoreless innings to lead the White Sox to a 3-0 win over the Twins. Buehrle earned his 27th career win against the Twins, the most wins for any active pitcher against a single team. Buehrle is now 27-19 in his career versus the Twins (most wins versus Minnesota since the team moved to Minnesota in 1960).

• In four starts against the Twins this season, Buehrle is 2-1 with a 0.29 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 1 ER). Buehrle is holding the Twins to a .144 average this season, but the numbers are even better against non-fastballs. After a 2 for 17 effort Monday, the Twins are now 5 for 51 (.098) in at-bats ending with Buehrle's non-fastballs.

• Buehrle did walk two hitters, but of the 29 hitters he faced, only one saw a 2-0 count. In addition, he only went to a three-ball count on four hitters (including the two walks).

How Philadelphia Phillies starter Cole Hamels bounced back against Cincinnati:
Cole Hamels
Hamels

• Hamels may not have gotten the win in his first start back from the disabled list, but he still pitched well enough to help the Phillies beat the Reds, 3-2. In his previous start before hitting the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, Hamels' fastball averaged just 88.6 MPH, almost a full three MPH below his season average of 91.5. On Monday, Hamels' fastball averaged 90.1, a big step up from his last start, but still his second-slowest fastball of the season.

• Despite that, the pitch was effective for him. Reds hitters were just 1 for 11 with two strikeouts on at-bats ending with a Hamels fastball. Only one of the nine fastballs hitters put in play was well hit, according to Inside Edge.

• Hamels' changeup was dominant, as usual. Five of the six outs he recorded on his changeup were strikeouts. Reds hitters missed on eight of their 11 swings (72.7 percent) against the pitch, Hamels' third-highest miss percentage on his changeup in a start this season. No starter in baseball has induced swings and misses on changeups at a higher rate (51.2 percent) this season than Hamels.

How New York Yankees pitcher Freddy Garcia beat the Baltimore Orioles:
Freddy Garcia
Garcia

• Forty-four percent of pitches taken against him were called strikes, his highest percentage of the season.

• His fastest pitch was clocked at 89.6 mph. It was his fastest pitch since June 28, when he reached 90.9 mph on the gun.

•He recorded four strikeouts on the night – all four at-bats ended with a splitter.

• The home run Garcia surrendered to Mark Reynolds was his first allowed since June 7. Garcia went 69 innings between gopher balls – the longest active homerless streak among starting pitchers, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Lee Singer and Mike Trainor contributed to this story.

Nationals bullpen stoking hot streak

June, 24, 2011
6/24/11
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Jim Riggleman’s departure from the Washington Nationals this week was a huge story, especially considering how well Washington has been playing lately, bullpen included. The relief corps has a 2.89 ERA this season, third-best in baseball.

Drew Storen
Storen
The franchise hasn't had a season with a bullpen ERA below 3.00 since 1984 when they were the Montreal Expos. Who’s behind the success this season? Namely Tyler Clippard, Todd Coffey and Drew Storen.

Storen’s .541 opponents' OPS leads the team and his 0.97 WHIP is third-lowest in the majors among first-and second-year pitchers (minimum 30 IP according to Baseball Reference). The Nationals closer has used a fastball and slider to great effect this season.

Storen throws his fastball more than 63 percent of the time, but with two strikes he goes a different route -- his slider becomes his putaway pitch.

With two strikes, he has a 52 percent strikeout rate with his slider, compared to just 30 percent with his heater.

Coffey has also been successful with offspeed pitches, throwing 67 percent strikes (league average is 61 percent). Clippard, meanwhile, has been making batters miss all year -- his miss rate of 37 percent is fifth-best among all relievers this season.

Easy Street
Huston Street, baseball’s saves leader this season, has looked very comfortable in Colorado. Since joining the Rockies in 2009 Street’s 77 saves are fifth-most in the National League, and he’s on pace to record over 45 this season.

That would easily set a career-high, surpassing his 37 saves from 2006.

Street has been especially clutch in big spots. Opposing hitters are batting .263 against him this season, but just .214 with RISP. In those situations he’s thrown 37 sliders and allowed just a .167 on-base percentage.

On a Roll
Sergio Santos of the Chicago White Sox was dominant this past week. In three appearances he collected two saves, struck out seven, walked none and allowed no hits. In that stretch he never even reached a three-ball count. It’s quite the turnaround from his previous three games, where he allowed eight earned runs in 2 ⅔ innings.

Bullpen sorrows start on South Side

April, 16, 2011
4/16/11
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Thorn in Chicago’s Side
The White Sox finished 14 games over .500 last season thanks in part to a strong bullpen. Chicago relievers combined for a 3.73 ERA in 2010, which ranked fifth in the AL. The squad also blew only 14 saves, third fewest in the American League. But manager Ozzie Guillen’s all-too-public rant this week on the state of his bullpen has made it clear that this year has already gone very differently. Through 12 team games Chicago’s save percentage is a scant 14.3, worst in baseball. The six blown saves are already nearly half of the team’s total last year.

Which man is the biggest culprit? Closer Matt Thornton, who has four blown saves in as many opportunities. Thornton’s strength in 2010 has become his weakness in 2011, and that is eliminating batters with two strikes against them. Last year, the lefty converted 79 percent of two-strike at-bats into outs, six percent above the average player according to Inside Edge. So far in 2011 that number is hovering around 53 percent.

Of the seven hits Thornton has allowed in two-strike counts this season, six have come off of his fastball. It’s not certain who is the closer moving forward, but Sergio Santos is a likely candidate.

Other Staff Shining in Philly
Jose Contreras
Contreras
The offseason was full of talk over the Phillies dominant starting staff. While that aspect is starting to come around this season, the bullpen has quietly posted the lowest ERA in baseball (1.93). Hitters have amassed just a .214 batting average and a miniscule .541 OPS, second lowest in MLB this season. The Philadelphia bullpen has kept at-bats economical as well (averaging 3.83 pitches per plate appearance which ranks among the top 10 in baseball). Jose Contreras has performed admirably as interim closer for Brad Lidge; he’s yet to allow a run in three appearances while collecting two saves.

He's Back
Brian Wilson has made a nice return this season. In a four-day span between April 12-15, Wilson earned three saves in as many appearances. He allowed no runs or walks, just a single hit and struck out four in those games. Wilson also utilized his fastball nearly 60 percent of the time and did not allow a hit off of that pitch. His velocity is a bit down, as in that stretch his fastball averaged 94.3 miles per hour (fastball averaged 95.7 miles per hour last season), but it hasn't seemed to hurt him.
Atlanta Braves
Dan Uggla is a .354 career hitter at Turner Field. His batting average is the third-best at Turner Field since the ballpark opened in 1997. His .652 slugging percentage at Turner trails only a pair of baseball greats: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.

As a rookie last season, Jason Heyward's discipline was highlighted by his ability to not chase pitches in two-strike counts. In those situations, Heyward chased just 31 percent of pitches compared to the league average of 36 percent, according to Inside Edge.

Florida Marlins
The only pitcher with a better FIP over the last two seasons than Josh Johnson's 2.76 is Tim Lincecum, 2.73. (FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- is a measurement for everything a pitcher can control without the help of his defense: strikeouts, walks and home runs.)

Will Mike Stanton continue to struggle at home? Stanton hit .259 in his rookie season, but just .182 at home. He had only nine extra-base hits in 159 home at-bats compared to 35 extra-base hits in 200 road at-bats.

New York Mets
Last season they allowed 12 grand slams but didn't hit one. David Wright will likely become the franchise leader in both RBI and extra-base hits. He needs 70 RBI to pass Darryl Strawberry's team record of 773, and 27 extra-base hits to break Strawberry's record of 469.

Having cut Luis Castillo, the Mets appear to be leaning toward making Brad Emaus their second baseman. Last season, the Mets ranked 15th or 16th in the National League in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage by their second basemen.

Philadelphia Phillies
How much the Phillies will miss Jayson Werth remains to be seen. But, in 2010, the Phillies received more home runs and a higher slugging percentage out of right field than any other team in baseball.

With the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies have a starting rotation whose top four will rank among the best in baseball in almost every significant statistical category. Cole Hamels (T-4th), Roy Oswalt (6th), Roy Halladay (8th) and Cliff Lee (14th) all rank in the top 14 among active pitchers in career strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lee, the lowest of the four, led the major leagues last season.

Washington Nationals
While Jayson Werth should be an upgrade in right field, the Nats still have significant issues in center. They got a National League-worst two home runs from the position last season and their centerfielders' combined on-base percentage of .303 ranked 13th.

It appears Rick Ankiel will be the Nationals' starting centerfielder on Opening Day. After hitting 25 home runs in 120 games in 2008 with the Cardinals, Ankiel's hit just 17 in 196 games over the past two seasons.

-- Mark Simon contributed to this report

The Brian Matusz mystique

March, 11, 2011
3/11/11
1:21
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Jeff Moffett/Icon SMI
Brian Matusz dominated hitters at the end of last season. But will the same approach work in 2011?


One of the keys to the Baltimore Orioles replicating their late-season success could be whether left-handed starter Brian Matusz is able to perform at the level he did at the end of 2010.

Matusz went 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA, with 52 strikeouts and 16 walks over 62 innings in 11 starts in August, September and October. (That also coincided with Buck Showalter’s hiring.) It’s not like he was significantly supported by the Orioles offense, either. In Matusz’s last eight starts, all of which the Orioles won, the team totaled 31 runs (fewer than four per game).

What did Matusz do to help himself and his team so significantly during this stretch?

The biggest difference in Matusz’s performance was his work against left-handed hitters. In those 11 starts, lefties were just 4-for-47 with 17 strikeouts. Basically, he turned into Randy Johnson against left-handed hitters (only with a fastball averaging 90 mph instead of 98). You can see from the chart just how much of an improvement he made.

Both our data from video review and Pitch F/X (a multi-camera pitch-tracking system) showed that left-handed hitters were more willing to chase Matusz’s pitches out of the strike zone, which boosted his strikeout rate. As September came, Matusz increased the frequency with which he worked away to left-handed hitters. Even when they were able to put the ball in play against him, they struggled.

The difference in lefties’ batting average on balls in play against Matusz was huge -- .400 in the first four months of the season, .133 the rest of the way. Hitters were putting the ball in play at the same rate. They just didn’t get hits.

Could this have been because of good luck? Maybe. But maybe not. Consider this:

Inside Edge, which does video review of every pitch thrown, charts a “well-hit average” based on frequency of line drives and deep fly balls.

Last season from April to July, left-handed hitters had 18 “well-hit” balls out of 68 at-bats that ended with contact. In other words, when a left-handed hitter made contact, he had about a 26 percent chance of hitting the ball hard against Matusz.

Those numbers took a significant dip in his last 11 starts, to a 10 percent well-hit rate. In those games, lefties hit just three balls hard in 30 times in which they made contact.

Now for those who may argue that some of Matusz’s success came against cupcake September lineups, that’s partly true, but not entirely the case.

Matusz allowed three runs in a 21-inning stretch prior to September in wins against the Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox. He also beat a full-strength Yankees lineup on September 6.

Full disclosure: He did shut out the Rays on a day in which they didn’t have Evan Longoria, beat an injury-depleted Boston team again in late September, and allowed one run in six innings against a Tigers team sans Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez.

But keep in mind that Matusz did shut down some pretty good hitters, particularly the left-handers. Carl Crawford, J.D. Drew, David Ortiz and Josh Hamilton were a combined 0-for-14 against him in his impressive stretch at season’s end.

Matusz made the necessary adjustments to his game to dominate lefties as the 2010 season reached its conclusion. Opposing hitters had six months to ponder new approaches against him. Who will prevail? It’s something to watch as the season unfolds.

Can Putz addition save Arizona bullpen?

March, 8, 2011
3/08/11
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Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers made several offseason changes, but Arizona still enters this season with numerous question marks, with the bullpen chief among them.

A roster overhaul was needed after a 65-97 record in 2010, especially to a bullpen that posted a 5.74 ERA. Not only was it more than a full run worse than any other team last season, but according to the Elias Sports Bureau it was the sixth-worst bullpen ERA in the divisional era (since 1969), and the worst by any National League squad.

Arizona blew 24 saves last season; only the Baltimore Orioles (27) and Florida Marlins (25) blew more.

Enter J.J. Putz, who will likely take over the closing role from Juan Gutierrez (who became the team’s closer after the Diamondbacks traded Chad Qualls to Tampa Bay).

Putz was strong in relief with the Chicago White Sox last season, although he was not used much in save situations (3 saves, 4 blown). Putz was above the league average in many categories last season, and most importantly, he finished off batters when he needed to. When Putz had two strikes against a hitter, according to Inside Edge, he converted an out 85 percent of the time, 12 percent higher than league average. That was also four percent better than any Diamondback pitcher last season.

Putz was also very economical, as 54 percent of opponent plate appearances ended in three pitches or fewer (MLB average was 45 percent). Compare that to Gutierrez, who only had 44 percent of his plate appearances last three pitches or fewer. Putz also did a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, allowing only four home runs in 54 innings. Gutierrez allowed 13 in 56 2/3 innings – the most among pitchers who threw fewer than 60 innings. Left-handed batters also had an OPS of .721 against Putz, a significant upgrade from Gutierrez’s .927. Gutierrez remains in the Arizona bullpen for this season, but in a less prominent role.

Putz used fastballs to his advantage last season, utilizing the pitch 63 percent of the time. He relied on his heater when he was behind in the count -- 84 percent of the time in those situations. It proved wise, as 70 percent of his fastballs were strikes, 6 percent above league average. His strike percentage on offspeed pitches was lower (63 percent), and only 2 percent above the MLB average.

While Putz's opponent average against fastballs was .265, it was significantly better than Gutierrez's (.294), as well as several other Arizona relievers in 2010, including Sam Demel (.291), D.J. Carrasco (.285) and Aaron Heilman (.293).

Chase Field is a very hitter-friendly venue (ESPN Park Factor ranked 9th last season), so adding Putz to the closer role makes sense. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Putz was able to force grounders more than fly balls last year: 27 percent fly ball hits allowed, compared to 39 percent on the ground. That's crucial if a player wants to have success in a hitter-friendly park.
There’s plenty to watch with the Detroit Tigers taking on the Atlanta Braves in ESPN’s first spring training telecast Thursday at 1 ET. Here’s a closer look at a couple of interesting storylines the new announcing team of Dan Shulman, Bobby Valentine and Orel Hershiser will be watching.

Chipper and changeups
One point of focus for Chipper Jones will be his performance against the slow stuff located away. Our Inside Edge video scouting data showed that Jones hit just .136 last season in at-bats that ended on a breaking ball or changeup on the outer part of the plate or beyond. That’s down significantly from .358 in 2008, and .274 in 2009.

Chipper Jones
Jones
Jones’ biggest bugaboo was the changeup away. It wasn’t that he was missing on these swings at an exorbitant rate (last season he was just above the major league average), but Jones wasn’t able to hit the ball hard when he made contact. All of our data sources indicate that Jones hit line drives and hard-hit balls at a rate well below the league average. When Jones did, he didn’t get hits. Jones was just 5-for-35 (.143) when making any sort of contact with a changeup away. The league average was .280 when making contact with those pitches.

Jones, who’s returning from a torn ACL, has missed 253 games over the past six seasons. Since 2005, the Braves are 375-344 with Jones in the lineup, and 127-126 when he does not play. Last season, Atlanta was 15 games over .500 (55-40) when he played.
-- Katie Sharp, Mark Simon, Douglas Clawson

Can the kid close?
Hershiser is picking Atlanta's flamethrowing rookie Craig Kimbrel as his National League Rookie of the Year. Even though Kimbrel isn’t pitching today, expect his name to be mentioned during the telecast.

Kimbrel’s strikeout rate (17.4 per 9 innings) isn’t the only amazing statistic. In 171⅔ professional regular-season innings, the youngster with a 95-mph fastball has yielded just five home runs (none in the majors). In his last 16⅔ innings, combining regular season and postseason, Kimbrel has not allowed an extra-base hit.

Something to watch with Kimbrel is whether he can get ahead in the count. Kimbrel threw first-pitch strikes only 43 percent of the time last season. That was the worst rate for those who threw at least 350 pitches. Kimbrel's first-pitch strike rate was just 36.6 percent in his first eight appearances. His rate improved to 55 percent over his final 13 regular-season appearances and four postseason outings.

This wouldn't be the first time the Braves went with an inexperienced closer. They did so multiple times during the 1990s, most notably in 1993 (Greg McMichael, 19 saves, 2.06 ERA), 1998 (Kerry Ligtenberg, 30 saves, 2.71 ERA) and 1999 (John Rocker, 38 saves, 2.71 ERA).
-- Katie Sharp, Jeremy Lundblad, Zach Singer

Stat of the day
A quick search of the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index shows that Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward have a chance to be the second pair of teammates since 1900 to have an OPS of .700 or better in their “age-21-or-younger” season (age computed as of June 30). The only teammates who did that were Gary Carter and Larry Parrish in 1975 with the Montreal Expos.

Coincidentally, Parrish is in his first season as the Braves' hitting coach.
-- Ben Duronio
Our weekly statistical review of MLB moves focuses on notables who joined the AL East.

Vladimir Guerrero
Guerrero
How does Vladimir Guerrero have the potential to help the Baltimore Orioles? Let’s take a closer look.

Guerrero boosts the Orioles in multiple areas in which they were deficient last season. Baltimore slugged .358 against left-handed pitching, fourth-worst in baseball last season and the team’s worst since 1988.

In adding Guerrero, Derrek Lee and Mark Reynolds, the Orioles netted three players whose combined slugging percentage vs lefties last season was .495. Guerrero slugged .536.

In all three spots in the lineup (DH, first base, third base), the Orioles have a player whose numbers vs lefties were better than the primary player used by Baltimore last season.

The other thing that comes with Guerrero is that Baltimore gets the same version of Guerrero when there are runners in scoring position as when there aren’t.

Guerrero has hit .300 or better in those situations in 12 of the last 13 seasons. His .321 batting average with runners in scoring position is a near match for what he hit in those situations last year (.320) and his career batting average overall (.320).

The Orioles hit .246 with runners in scoring position last season, fourth-worst in baseball.

Guerrero also figures to maintain his power in a hitter-friendly park.

While Rangers Ballpark was slightly favorable to right-handed batters over the last three seasons, with a home run park factor of 114 (according to The Bill James Handbook), Camden Yards is even more friendly, boosting homers for righties by 21 percent in that span, tied with Coors Field for the fourth-highest mark in the major leagues.

Lastly, though this won’t necessarily impact wins and losses, Guerrero still possesses a “wow” factor to his home run hitting. According to data compiled by our video review crew for Hittrackeronline.com, Guerrero averaged a distance of 408.14 feet per home run. That was 12 feet better than the big league average and eighth-best among the 47 players with at least 25 home runs in 2010. New teammate Reynolds ranked second.
-- Mark Simon, Katie Sharp, Derek Czenczelewski

Ramirez/Garcia battle worth watching
Manny Ramirez
Ramirez

The moves of Freddy Garcia (New York Yankees) and Manny Ramirez (Tampa Bay Rays) to the AL East increase the likelihood that the two will face off for the first time since 2006.

Ramirez has been Garcia’s kryptonite. A check of Baseball-Reference.com shows Ramirez has the highest OPS (1.559) and slugging percentage (1.042) among batters Garcia has faced at least 20 times (including postseason).

Ramirez has three homers, two doubles and a single over his last six at-bats versus Garcia, though they may go five years in between meetings.
--Katie Sharp

Reyes an unusual lefty in 2010
New potential Boston Red Sox lefty Dennys Reyes had some of baseball’s most unusual splits last season. Typically a lefty specialist, Reyes had far better success against right-handed hitters (.177 opponents batting average) than lefties (.307).

Dennys Reyes
Reyes
The discrepancy was wider when looking only at when contact was made. Within the small samplings faced by a lefty reliever, right-handers hit .418 when making contact, lefties just .193, both numbers out of sync with major league norms.

Reyes may have caught a couple of breaks against right-handers. Inside Edge, which tracks every major league pitch, has its video scouts chart “well-hit balls.” It is an opinion-based rating, but with parameters emphasizing line drives and long fly balls.

Right-handers who had a "well-hit ball" against lefties got a hit 66 percent of the time last season. But against Reyes, they were 6-for-16 (.375). Three or four more hits would have significantly impacted his numbers.

Reyes faced 75 right-handed hitters last season and did not allow a home run, third-most among lefties in the major leagues.
--Mark Simon

US Presswire
Carlos Gonzalez, Adam LaRoche, and Hideki Okajima have been among baseball's newsmakers over the last couple of weeks.


Some notes, stats and trends from our baseball research team on noteworthy major league moves since the holiday season.

The Colorado Rockies recently issued their second significant long-term contract this offseason, rewarding Carlos Gonzalez for his breakout 2010 season with a seven-year/$80 million deal.

Gonzalez set career highs in just about every meaningful statistic in 2010, leading to a third-place finish in the NL MVP vote.

While Gonzalez has established himself as a very talented player, certain aspects of his game indicate he was statistically fortunate to hit as well as he did in 2010.

When Gonzalez put the ball in play, his performance was tremendous. Gonzalez's .384 mark was the third-highest among players who qualified for baseball's batting title (502 plate appearances) and was nearly 60 points higher than his BABIP in his first two seasons.

Even a 30-point drop from his 2010 numbers would have a significant impact on his slashline (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage) in 2011.

The rate at which Gonzalez's fly balls turned into home runs (20.4 percent, according to Fangraphs.com) was the seventh-best mark in the National League.

Over the last five seasons, only six players have posted a cumulative home run-to-fly ball mark of 20.0 or above – Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, Adam Dunn, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Reynolds and Prince Fielder. Through this deal, Gonzalez could perform at the same or similar rates to how he did in 2010, but statistically speaking, that won't be easy.
-- Justin Havens

LaRoche is a Second-Half Slugger

Perhaps the Nationals should have waited until after the All-Star game to sign Adam LaRoche who has a history of heating up in the second half of the season. LaRoche has posted a .766 career OPS before the break and a .889 OPS after the break.

The 113-point gap in his first-half/second-half OPS is the fourth-largest differential over the last 50 years among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances both before and after the break.

However, last year LaRoche bucked the trend, with nearly identical marks (.787 and .788) in both the first and second half of the season, thanks to a near career-low .307 on-base percentage in the second half.

LaRoche's history is definitely that of a late-season slugger. In five of his seven seasons, his second-half slugging percentage exceeded his first half by at least 40 points.
-- Katie Sharp

Okajima needs to fix his fastball
The biggest key for recently re-signed Boston Red Sox lefty reliever Hideki Okajima in re-establishing himself as a good bullpen option is to improve the effectiveness of his two-strike fastball.

When Okajima threw something slow with two strikes, his results from 2008 to 2010 were both consistent and good. But the numbers when he tried to sneak an 87 mile-per-hour fastball by a hitter (whether a lefty or righty), changed dramatically last season.

According to our Inside Edge video tracking data, Okajima gave up 21 hits and got 36 outs with two-strike fastballs last season.

In the previous two seasons (including postseason), he allowed 20 hits with his two-strike fastball (one fewer than 2010) and got 100 more outs-- 136

Okajima's opponents on-base percentage jumped by more than 200 points (.194 to .403). If Okajima had pitched to his 2008 and 2009 form, he should have allowed seven hits in these situations. He yielded three times that many last season.
-- Mark Simon

Getty Images
J.J. Hardy, Shaun Marcum and Ty Wigginton were among the under-the-radar players on the move last week.


With more than $750 million committed by major league teams, plus a slew of significant trades, it’s been a busy offseason. Here are some quick takes on notable moves that took place in the last seven days.

Jason Bartlett (Padres) Bartlett was consistently below average as a Ray in his ability to turn double plays. According to Baseball Info Solutions, it is estimated that Bartlett cost his team four runs in 2009 (worst in the majors) and three runs in 2010 (second-worst) because of his poor performance when attempting to turn double plays. -- Katie Sharp

Carl Crawford (Red Sox) If a good statistical benchmark for Carl Crawford over the next seven seasons is 250 steals and 100 home runs, consider this: The last player to do that over seven seasons was Marquis Grissom (1992-1998). -- Mark Simon

Jack Cust (Mariners) Cust fills a significant need for the Mariners. His .395 on-base-percentage, .438 slugging percentage, .166 isolated power and .371 weighted on-base average (wOBA) for the Oakland Athletics in 2010 all would have been the best on the Mariners. -- Justin Havens

Jeff Francoeur (Royals) Francoeur posted the second-worst on-base percentage of any outfielder in 2010. That runs counter to one area of improvement for Kansas City. The Royals tied for ninth in the AL in walks last year, after finishing in the bottom two in the previous three seasons. -- Paul Carr

Tony Gwynn Jr.(Dodgers) Gwynn finished fourth in Net Rating (a measure from Baseball Info Solutions that looks at approximately 30 categories of Good Fielding Plays and 50 categories of Misplays). Gwynn’s signature defensive play was a game-saver on June 6, with the Padres leading by a run in the bottom of the 10th inning. He threw out Placido Polanco trying to go first-to-third on a single with one out. That’s the kind of play the Dodgers could use. Their assist total from centerfielders dropped from 14 in 2009 to three in 2010, tied for fewest in the majors. -- Mark Simon

J.J. Hardy (Orioles) Last year’s Orioles left side of the infield averaged a home run every 71 at-bats and a walk every 25. Hardy and Mark Reynolds netted a homer every 22 at-bats and a walk every eight. -- Justin Havens

Shaun Marcum (Brewers) It will be interesting to see if Marcum’s ability to generate swings-and-misses is as good in the NL. Batters missed on 50 percent of their swings against his changeup and chased over 40 percent of those offerings, both ranking among the top five in the AL. His changeup putaway rate (strikeouts/two-strike changeups thrown) of 25.9 percent was the fourth-highest in the league. -- Katie Sharp

Mark Reynolds (Orioles) Reynolds’ league-worst .198 batting average last season was unusual -- more than 50 points worse than the his .250 over the two previous seasons. Though Reynolds’ contact rate and in-play percentage were consistent from 2008-10, he didn’t have good fortune when putting balls in play. His BABIP of .257 in 2010 was the fourth-lowest in the NL, far below his mark of .330 from 2008-09. -- Katie Sharp

Ty Wigginton (Rockies) Wigginton may mesh well with Coors Field. Inside Edge tracks well-hit average (a subjective rating that favors line drives and long fly balls) and ranked Wigginton 33rd in that stat (.263). However, he ranked 95th in slugging percentage (.415). For comparative purposes, new teammate Troy Tulowitzki had a well-hit average one point higher than Wigginton (.264) and ranked eight-best in the majors in slugging. -- Mark Simon
Cliff Lee turned in a performance for the ages on Monday, holding the Yankees to just two hits over eight innings while striking out 13 to give the Rangers a 2-1 series lead in the American League Championship Series. While the 8-0 victory was a team affair, the superlatives regarding Lee’s performance are many. Here are our five favorites:

1 -- Lee lowered his postseason ERA to 1.26, the third-lowest mark for anyone with at least five postseason starts, behind only Sandy Koufax and Christy Mathewson.

2 -- His 13 strikeouts tied his career-high and marked the third-most vs the Yankees in a postseason game.

3 -- He now has six consecutive starts of seven innings and a win, one behind the all-time record (Bob Gibson).

4 -- Lee now has three straight postseason starts with at least 10 strikeouts, tying the all-time record.

5 -- Lee’s five career 10+ strikeout games in the postseason is tied for the all-time record with Randy Johnson and Bob Gibson.

On the other side of the fence, the performance was an all-time low for the Yankees:

The three baserunners for the Yankees is the fewest they've ever had in a postseason game. They had four baserunners in Game 2 of the 2001 World Series and in Game 4 of the 1958 World Series.

The two hits recorded by the Yankees ties the fewest in their postseason history. It happened twice before - the 2001 ALDS Game 3 vs Oakland Athletics and the 1958 World Series, Game 4, vs the Milwaukee Braves.

The 8-0 shutout loss marks the worst shutout loss for the Yankees in their postseason history.

The Rangers have outscored the Yankees 20-8 in this series, including 14-2 before the seventh inning. The Rangers have led 25 innings while the Yankees have led only two.

The Yankees 1-through-6 hitters were 0-20 with 10 strikeouts in Game 3.

How Cliff Lee dominated the Yankees:
Lee relied on his cutter yet again, continuing the trend from Game 5 of the ALDS against the Rays. Lee threw 41 cutters in Game 5 and 37 on Monday against the Yankees, the most he's thrown in any two starts this year.

The Yankees have struggled against Lee's cutter all season. Before Jorge Posada's single broke up Lee's no-hit bid in the fifth, Yankee hitters were 0-for-27 this season against Lee's cutter. They finished with two hits (Posada, Gardner singles), making them 2-for-30 this year, including eight strikeouts.

Relying more on his cutter of late has helped Lee miss more bats. The Yankees swung-and-missed on 17 of their 57 swings (29.8 pct) on Monday, Lee's highest miss percentage in a start this season. He also recorded 17 swings-and-misses in Game 5 against the Rays. Nine of Lee's 13 strikeouts were swinging, tying a career-best.

Lee didn't pound the strike zone as well as usual -- an impossible standard he's set -- instead relying on Yankee hitters to expand their strike zone and chase. He threw just 62 of his 122 pitches in the strike zone (50.8 pct), his second lowest percentage in a start this year and well below his regular season average of 60.6 pct, which led all starters. He recorded eight outs on pitches out of the strike zone, second most in a start this year. All of those eight outs came with two strikes, and seven came via the strikeout.

Lee also mixed in more changeups than usual to keep the Yankees off balance. With hitters likely looking for the lefty to pitch off his fastball, Lee threw 10 of his 15 changeups in early in the count (first three pitches). The 15 changeups were the third most for Lee this season. Yankee hitters put just one of their nine swings against the pitch in play (A-Rod groundout).
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