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We preview the NBA All-Star Game with 10 facts you need to know.

• Kevin Durant won his first All-Star Game MVP award last year after scoring 36 points. He’s scored 30 or more points in two straight All-Star Games, the only player in NBA history to accomplish that feat. His career scoring average (28.3 points) is an All-Star record (minimum 60 career points).

• LeBron James, making his ninth All-Star appearance, ranks second in career scoring average (25.9 points) in the game. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, James has scored at least 20 points in each of his past seven All-Star Games, the longest such streak for any player in NBA history.

• Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett were selected to the All-Star Game for the 15th time. Only Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has more career selections (19). Bryant’s 15 selections have come consecutively, the longest active streak. His 271 career points are the most in NBA history and his four MVPs are tied with Bob Pettit for most all time.

• Bryant and Dwight Howard are slated to start for the Western Conference, but the Los Angeles Lakers enter the All-Star break in 10th place in the West. According to Elias, the Lakers could be the fourth team since the merger (1976-77 season) to miss the playoffs in a season with two All-Star starters on the roster. The last team to do so was the 2005-06 Rockets (Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming).

The Lakers will also become the first team in All-Star Game history to start two different centers in back-to-back years (Andrew Bynum in 2012).

• The Miami Heat lead the way with three All-Star selections -- all three of whom will start -- becoming one of eight teams with multiple selections. According to Elias, they’ll be the sixth trio of teammates to start the All-Star Game following a championship season, and the first since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson and James Worthy in 1986.

• Kyrie Irving is the sixth-youngest player ever selected to an All-Star team (he’ll be 20 years, 331 days old on Sunday).

• David Lee earned the Golden State Warriors' first All-Star selection since 1997 (Latrell Sprewell). That leaves the Milwaukee Bucks and the Sacramento Kings as the teams with the longest active streaks without an All-Star (nine seasons).

• Stephen Curry is averaging 21.0 points per game this season, the highest average for a player not selected to an All-Star team. Monta Ellis is fourth on that list (18.4), but he’s got the highest career points per game without ever being selected to the All-Star Game (minimum 400 games played).

• Jeremy Lin of the Houston Rockets was the only player among the top 10 vote-getters who was not selected to the All-Star Game. He finished ninth, between Howard and Blake Griffin. Bryant led the way with more than 1.5 million votes, just ahead of James.

• The Eastern Conference leads the series 36-25, but the West has won two straight and three of the past four games. A third straight victory by the West would be tied for its longest win streak (three straight from 2002 to '04).

Larry Sanders, LeBron James and Tyson Chandler are making runs at under-the-radar milestones this NBA season. A glance at what each player can accomplish:

Larry Sanders

Sanders, of the Milwaukee Bucks, leads the NBA in blocks per game at 3.11. Why is that interesting? He’s doing it while averaging 25.5 minutes per game.

Since the NBA started tracking blocks in 1973-74, there have been eight previous instances of a player recording three or more blocks per game while averaging fewer than 30 minutes (minimum 2,000 minutes).

But there have been only three instances in which a player averaged fewer than 30 minutes and led the league in blocks per game.

Sanders will clear the 2,000-minute mark if he stays healthy and plays at roughly his current pace for the remainder of the season.

At his current 25.5 minutes per game, he would set the mark for fewest minutes per game for a player who led the league in blocks per game, edging out Manute Bol and Mark Eaton.


LeBron James

There have been 16 previous seasons in NBA history in which a player posted a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 30.0 or better (minimum 45 games played). James’ PER is a league-best 30.37. Assuming he can keep it up, James would become the second player in history with four or more seasons with that mark, joining Michael Jordan.

Tyson Chandler

For the third time in the past three seasons, New York Knicks center Chandler is making a run at the record books. Chandler’s True Shooting Percentage -- which takes into consideration 2-point field goals, 3-point field goals and free throws -- is in rare territory once again, at 70.1 percent on the season. That is just fractionally behind his own record from last season (70.8).

The Indiana Pacers host the Miami Heat tonight at 7 ET on ESPN. Indiana has won 12 consecutive games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, their longest home win streak since winning 14 straight during the 2002-03 season.

The Pacers won the first meeting this season, holding the Heat to a season low in points in their 87-77 victory on January 8. Indiana has won each of the last two regular season meetings and with a win tonight, will have its first three-game regular-season win streak against the Heat since winning 12 straight from 2002-2005.

On the other end of the scorer's table, the Heat have won three of their last four road games after starting the season 8-9 away from American Airlines Arena. However, Miami is just 9-36 all-time on the road against the Pacers in the regular season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that .200 win percentage is their second-worst mark against a single opponent on the road in team history (2-22 at Spurs).

The key matchup to watch is when LeBron James is being defended by Paul George. James, the reigning league MVP, is posting career highs in both field goal percentage (54.8) and three-point field goal percentage (40.4).

Meanwhile, George has emerged as one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. George, who was selected to his first All-Star team this season, is 11th in the NBA with 1.7 steals per game.

George has had a major impact on a Pacers’ defense that ranks first in defensive efficiency, allowing just 96.2 points per 100 possessions. According to Basketball Reference, George ranks second in the NBA with 3.5 defensive win shares, a metric that estimates the number of wins a player contributed to his team due to his defense.
However, James had some success against George in their first meeting. With George as the primary defender on non-pick and roll plays, James scored 13 of his 22 points on 6-for-11 shooting.

On Friday, George should look to keep James around the perimeter and prevent him from attacking the basket. James, who averages an NBA-best 13.1 points in the paint per game, went just 2-for-6 on jump shots from outside the key when George was defending him on non-pick and roll plays in the first meeting. When he was able to get in the paint in those situations, he connected on four of his five attempts.

In terms of slowing James down, the breaking point for the Pacers has been the 27-point mark. James’ teams are 18-5 against Indiana in his career when he scores at least 27 points. They are just 9-9 when he fails to score at least 27 points including his 22-point effort in the Heat’s loss to the Pacers in January.

Following a pair of Dwyane Wade free throws, the Miami Heat led the Portland Trail Blazers by 12 with eight minutes remaining in the fourth quarter Thursday. Unfortunately for the Heat, the Blazers took control in those final eight minutes and hung on for a two-point win at the Rose Garden. The loss was the second straight and third in the last four games for Miami.

During that stretch to end the game, Portland outscored the Heat 24-10 despite almost identical shooting from the floor by hitting free throws and three-point shots. The Blazers went 11-for-15 on free throws and 3-for-4 on three-pointers during the run while Miami went 1-for-2 and 1-for-5 on those same shots, respectively. Among them was the potential game-winning three by Mario Chalmers that rimmed out as time expired.

But perhaps even more notable than the loss, LeBron James scored a season-low 15 points on just six field goals. The six made shots were the fewest he’s had in a game since March of last season.

Entering the night, James had reached the 20-point plateau in each of the 33 games he played this season, the longest streak by any player to start a season since George Gervin went 45-straight games in 1981-82 and the second-longest by any player since the 1976 merger.

What caused the run of 20-point performances to come to an end? Struggles in the half court. James scored just seven points on 2-for-11 shooting in half-court sets on Thursday (18.1 percent), both of which were season lows. James entered the night having scored over 20 points per game and was shooting 51.0 percent in the half court this season.

On the other end of the floor, the Blazers were led by LaMarcus Aldridge and his 20 points and game-high 15 rebounds. It marked his fifth double-double over the last six games and his second “20-and-15" of the season.

Also chipping in for Portland was Nicolas Batum who scored a team-high 28 points. It was his sixth game of the year with least 25 points and with the win, the Blazers improved to 5-1 when he reaches the 25-point plateau this season.

The New York Knicks visit the Miami Heat tonight in a meeting of the two best records in the Eastern Conference. The Heat have revenge on the mind, as the Knicks served them with their worst loss of the season, a 20-point defeat in early November.

In five home meetings last season (two regular season, three postseason), however, the Heat had no trouble against New York, winning by an average of 15.8 points.

Tonight will feature a matchup of two of the most efficient offenses in the NBA this season. The Knicks are tied for first in the NBA averaging 110.9 points per 100 possessions, while the Heat are third averaging 110.1.

The Knicks (13-4) are off to their best 17-game start since beginning the 1995-96 season 13-4. A significant reason behind their success has stemmed from long-distance. The Knicks average an NBA-high 11.8 three-point field goals made this season, and New York has relied on long-distance buckets, as 34.4 percent of their total points have come from three-point field goals, by far the most in the NBA.

No other team has more than 26.5 percent.

A significant contributor from long range has been Jason Kidd, who leads the NBA this season in 3-point field goal percentage (51.1).

Much of the turnaround in New York is thanks to Mike Woodson. Since he took over as Knicks head coach, the team is 31-10 in regular-season games, and only the Spurs have recorded a higher win percentage over that span.

James Continues to Power Heat

LeBron James has recorded at least 20 points in 16 consecutive games to start the season, the longest streak in his career. According to Elias, James is just the third different player since the 2000-01 season with a streak that long to start a season. What's more, James has eight games this season with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, two more than any other player.

James has helped power an offense that ranks first in field goal percentage (49.3), second in three-point shooting (41.3) and second in scoring offense (104.4 PPG).

Despite their success on offense, however, the Heat have taken a step back defensively this season.

Miami ranks 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 103.2 points per 100 possessions, a category that the Heat ranked among the top five in during each of the first two seasons of their "Big 3" era.

What the NBA schedule lacks in volume Thursday, it more than makes up in quality when the 13-3 San Antonio Spurs visit the 10-3 Miami Heat.

The Heat's stellar offense is a big reason why they are unbeaten in six home games and sport the best record in the East. They average the most points per game and the most points per 100 possessions.

Their effective field goal percentage -- which adjusts for the fact that a 3-pointer is worth one more point than a 2-pointer -- of 58.3 leads the league as well.

Much of their success has stemmed from their 3-point prowess at home, and Ray Allen has played a key role in that aspect of their game.

Only the Oklahoma City Thunder have a higher shooting percentage from the corner than the Heat, and Allen has made 60 percent of his corner threes (9-of-15). Their 43.6 percentage from above the break ranks third in the league.

Contributing to that 3-point success is one of the early MVP candidates to be featured in this game, LeBron James. James has been torrid from deep, connecting on almost 44 percent of his attempts, which would be a career high. James’ 3-point connections have come from pretty much everywhere except the left corner.

James has been the most efficient player in the NBA this season. He leads the league in player efficiency rating (28.54), just ahead of the next-closest player, Kevin Durant (28.21).

On the other side of the court, you’ll find perhaps the biggest early-season surprise for MVP, Tim Duncan. The 36-year-old is third in the league with a 27.90 PER, which would be a career high. He's posted a PER of 27 or better just three times previously (2001-02 [his MVP season], 2003-04 and 2004-05).

Duncan is averaging nearly 19 points a game, up from the 13- and 15-point scoring averages he posted the past two seasons. After averaging 28 minutes each of the past two seasons, Duncan is near 31 per game in 2012-13.

Why is his increase in minutes a big deal? Because on a per-minute basis, Duncan's production is alarmingly static. Simply put: for Duncan, more minutes is a near-guarantee of more production at the same rate. A look at his career numbers per 36 minutes reveals his consistency.

While Duncan and the Spurs have nine wins in 10 road games this season, American Airlines Arena has not been kind to them since James and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade in South Beach.

In Miami, San Antonio scores nearly 13 fewer points per 100 possessions and has allowed the Heat to score 23 more points per 100 possessions than any other opponent at that arena.

LeBron James was recently ranked the No. 1 player in the NBA by ESPN.com’s panel of experts. After last season, it’s tough to argue.

James joined Michael Jordan (1992) as the only player to win MVP, an NBA title, Finals MVP and Olympic Gold in the same year.

But those accolades only begin to tell the story.

Here’s a look at some statistical angles that further support James as the top basketball player on the planet.

Scoring
James’ 27.6 career scoring average is the highest among active players, and third-highest all-time behind only Michael Jordan (30.12) and Wilt Chamberlain (30.07).

James has averaged at least 25 points in each of the last eight seasons, tied with Kobe Bryant for the longest active streak in the NBA. Only Bryant has more such seasons overall among active players with 11.

Since the start of 2007-08, James has recorded an NBA-high 160 30-point games, 21 more than the player with the next-highest total.

Last season, James did most of his damage on the break averaging an NBA-high 5.9 fast break points per game. He’s led the league in fast break points in each of his two seasons with the Miami Heat.

Efficiency
James’ impact on the game is shown in his Player Efficiency Rating. PER, created by ESPN.com’s John Hollinger, is the overall rating of a player’s per-minute statistical production. The league average PER is 15.0 every season.

James has surpassed 30 three times in his career, including an NBA-high 30.8 PER last season. Only Michael Jordan has had more seasons with a PER over 30 in NBA history.

But it’s his ability to score at a high rate efficiently that separates him from his competition. James is the only player in the NBA to average at least 25 points and shoot over 50 percent from the field over the span of the last five seasons.

All Around Impact
James has averaged at least 27.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in six of his nine seasons in the league, tied for the most in NBA history with Oscar Robertson.
Last season, the Heat outscored their opponents by 474 points when James was on the court. That was the highest plus-minus by any player in the NBA. James has led the NBA in plus-minus in each of the last four seasons.

Looking ahead, James enters this season seeking his fourth league MVP, which would put him on a short list that includes Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6), Michael Jordan (5), Bill Russell (5) and Wilt Chamberlain (4).

No lockout means a return to normalcy in this year's schedule, where each team visits each city at least once and no team has to play a back-to-back-to-back. Last season, there were 40 back-to-back-to-backs.

Also this year, the regular season will start almost two months earlier (October 30) and will end nine days earlier (April 17) than last season.

SCHEDULE TIDBITS
• NBA Finals rematches: Christmas Day in Miami, Valentine's Day in Oklahoma City.

• Eastern Conference Finals rematches: October 30 in Miami, January 27 in Boston, March 18 in Boston, April 12 in Miami.

• Western Conference Finals rematches: November 1 in San Antonio, December 17 in Oklahoma City, March 11 in San Antonio, April 4 in Oklahoma City.

• Check out the notable "return" games this season in the chart at right, including Carmelo Anthony making his first trip to Denver this year. Because of the lockout-adjusted schedule, the Knicks did not play at the Nuggets last season.

• Teams appearing the most frequently on ESPN networks: Los Angeles Lakers (16), Miami Heat (15), Oklahoma City Thunder (15), New York Knicks (15), Los Angeles Clippers (14), Chicago Bulls (12), Boston Celtics (11).

DEFENDING THEIR TITLE
• The Heat and Celtics will play each other on Opening Night, October 30 in Miami. Not only will it be Ray Allen's first game against his most mates, LeBron James is 0-3 vs Celtics in season-openers (0-1 with the Heat in 2010, 0-2 with the Cavaliers in 2008 and 2009).

• Based on last season’s records, the toughest months of the season schedule-wise for the Heat will be the start of their season in October-November. But they'll follow that with their easiest month in December. And that includes a Christmas Day showdown with the Thunder.

• It hasn’t been easy for teams to defend their title recently. There’s been only one repeat champion in the last 10 years (Lakers 2009 and 2010). The last two teams defending their titles were bounced in the 1st Round (2012 Mavericks) and Conference Semifinals (2011 Lakers). The last time the Heat defended their title, in the 2006-07 season, they were dealt injuries to Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal and knocked out in the 1st Round.

With Ray Allen agreeing to sign with the Miami Heat, the NBA champions have added one of the greatest shooters in league history.

How will Allen fit in with the Heat?

Using Synergy Sports Technology to analyze Allen’s potential role with the Heat, it seems that he will fit in just fine.

OPEN JUMPERS FOR THE HEAT

The acquisitions of LeBron James and Chris Bosh created more open jumpers for the Heat. The year before the Big Three formed, only 41 percent of the Heat's catch-and-shoot jumpers were unguarded, the fifth lowest percentage in the league. But that percentage has increased over the past two seasons.

During the 2010-11 season, 57 percent of the Heat’s catch-and-shoot jumpers were unguarded, the second highest percentage in the NBA. And last season, 63 percent were unguarded, which ranked third.

Four of the Heat's current players that were in Miami prior to the Big Three era -- Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, James Jones and Udonis Haslem -- have received a significant increase in unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers over the past two seasons as compared to the season before the Big Three formed.

Only 30 percent of Wade's shots were unguarded in 2009-10, but that percentage doubled to 60 percent last season. Nearly four of every five Chalmers catch-and-shoot jumpers last season were unguarded.

LeBRON & BOSH MAKE TEAMMATES BETTER

Chalmers, Wade, Jones and Haslem saw an immediate improvement on catch-and-shoot jumpers after LeBron and Bosh arrived. The most dramatic improvement was Wade, who went from a 28 percent shooter on catch-and-shoot jumpers in 2009-10 to 37 percent in 2010-11.

RAY ALLEN CATCH-AND-SHOOT JUMPERS

Allen has improved his field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers over the past two seasons as compared to the previous three seasons. He shot less than 43 percent and ranked outside of the top 50 (among the 200-plus players with at least 100 attempts) in each season from 2007-08 to 2009-10, but he shot 45 percent and ranked in the top 25 in each of the past two seasons.

Allen has also improved his field goal percentage on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers in each of the past two seasons. In 2009-10, he shot 42 percent on those shots. That percentage jumped to 51 percent in 2010-11 and 52 percent last season, which ranked sixth of the 68 players with at least 100 attempts.

Over the past few years, Allen has been left open more often on catch-and-shoot jumpers. In 2005-06, only 31 percent of those shots were unguarded. That percentage increased in each of the next three seasons. In 2010-11, he was left open on 49 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers, and last season 53 percent of those attempts were unguarded.

CONCLUSION

The Heat have had more open jumpers since LeBron and Bosh came to Miami. And the Heat’s most prominent shooters that were in Miami prior to the Big Three era became better shooters after LeBron and Bosh arrived. Allen was just as good of a shooter (if not better) last season as he was a few years ago. Part of this is because Allen has been left open more over the past two seasons.

If the pattern continues, expect Allen to receive even more open jumpers in Miami.

The Miami Heat won their second NBA title as a team but it was LeBron James who was the engine that powered them, joining Tim Duncan (2003) and Magic Johnson (1987) as the only players to lead his team in points, rebounds and assists in an NBA Finals win.

A deeper look inside the numbers shows just how much more effective James was compared to his disastrous Finals series a year ago.

Taking it to the paint
James scored 18 points in the paint during Game 5 and averaged 17.6 points per game in the paint during the 2012 Finals. That’s more than double the 8.7 points per game he scored in the paint during the 2011 Finals.
Quite simply, James is a different player when he is more aggressive. He was 8-of-11 (73 percent) and scored 16 of his 26 points from inside 5 feet in Game 5. During the 2012 Finals, James attempted 46 percent of his shots from inside 5 feet, compared to just 36 percent of his field goals in the Finals last season.

Getting it done at the line
A by-product of James taking it to the rim? More trips to the line. Once he got there, James took advantage. He shot 82 percent from the line in the series, averaging over seven free throws per contest.

Compare that to last year against the Mavericks, when his lack of assertiveness kept him off the line. James shot 60 percent on free throws in the 2011 Finals and only averaged two free throws made. He hit as many free throws in Game 2 this year as he did in the entire 2011 Finals.

More than just a scorer
James tied his playoff career-high with 13 assists in Game 5, which created 34 Heat points. That number is the highest in James’ postseason career and second-most in any NBA Finals game over the past 15 years (Rajon Rondo, 2008 Game 2). In Game 4, the Heat scored 29 points off of James’ 12 assists.

James’ 25 assists over the past two games were his most over any two game stretch since joining the Heat.

Performing in the clutch
And to exorcise the demons that haunted James the most from last year, James scored 14 points on 4-of-7 shooting in “crunch time” situations (last five minutes of 4th quarter/OT, score within five) in the 2012 NBA Finals. James’ average shot distance in these situations was 15.3 feet and he drew three fouls leading to six free throws.

All of this is a far cry from 2011, where James failed to score or even draw a foul in crunch time. James’ average shot distance in the 2011 NBA Finals was almost 23 feet, with five of his seven shots coming from three-point range.

The Miami Heat host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of NBA Finals tonight (9 ET on ABC).

Numbers never lie, right? Entering this year, 30 teams had trailed 3-1 in the NBA Finals and not a single team was able overcome that deficit and win a title. In fact, under the current 2-3-2 format (since 1985) none of the 13 teams facing a 3-1 hole have even forced a decisive Game 7.

WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE THUNDER?
After winning Game 1, the Thunder have dropped three straight games for just their second three-game losing streak of the season. They haven’t lost four straight games in more than three years, since February of 2009.

Oklahoma City has failed to reach 100 points in their last three games. They had just one such streak during the regular season, when they went five games in a row from April 1-8 without reaching the century mark. When the Thunder does reach 100 points this postseason, they’re 10-1.

One issue has been their poor distance shooting. In the Conference Finals against the Spurs, the Thunder averaged 41.3 points per game from 15+ feet while shooting nearly 45 percent. Against the Heat in the Finals, they are scoring nine points fewer per game and shooting under 38 percent.

The disappearance of James Harden has also hurt the Thunder. Harden had eight points in Game 4, his third game in single digits this series. Harden didn’t have a single-digit scoring game in the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Harden has struggled as the pick & roll ball handler, scoring just four total points on those plays during the Finals, after averaging better than five points per game in the first three playoff rounds. Only 13 percent of his plays have been of the pick-and-roll variety in the Finals, compared to 41 percent in the first three rounds.

WHAT’S RIGHT WITH THE HEAT?
Two words: LeBron James. After a miserable Finals last year, James has emerged as the premier playoff performer this postseason.

James has recorded 671 points this postseason. He is 29 points away from becoming just the fifth player in NBA history to record at least 700 points in a single postseason.

One reason for his success is that he has been more aggressive attacking the basket.

He went 8-for-11 for 16 points inside the paint in Game 4. He’s recorded at least 16 points inside the paint in each of the last six games, his longest such streak in his postseason career (since 2006).

James has also been a primetime player under pressure, scoring 14 points on 4-of-7 shooting in “clutch time” situations (last five minutes of fourth quarter and overtime, score within five points) in the 2012 NBA Finals. In the 2011 NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks, James failed to score or even draw a foul in clutch time.

STAT OF SERIES
The Heat have trailed in three different series this postseason. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team entering this postseason has won a title in NBA history after trailing in three different series in a single postseason.

Statistical Support from NBA.com

Is Russell Westbrook’s late-game mistake to blame for the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Game 4 loss to the Miami Heat?

The numbers show that Westbrook had a lot more to do with the Thunder being in the game than losing it.

Leading by three points with 17.3 seconds left, the Heat gained possession of a jump ball with the shot clock dwindling. Seemingly unaware of the situation, Westbrook fouled Mario Chalmers, who went on to make two free throws to put the game away. But would the outcome have been different if the Thunder had simply played defense? Probably not.

Based on similar situations in over 7,300 games in recent NBA history, the Heat had a 97 percent chance of winning once they won the jump ball. When Westbrook committed the foul, that number went up to 98, and it rose to 99 when Chalmers hit both free throws. If Oklahoma City had not fouled and prevented a made shot, the Heat’s chances would have dropped to 95 percent.

Even if the Thunder had forced a miss and gotten the rebound with eight seconds to go, the Heat would have won 91 percent of the time. So if everything had gone right for Oklahoma City, its chances of winning were only nine percent. While that is better than one or two percent, it was a longshot at best for the Thunder to emerge victorious, foul or not.

Prior to any of that going down, though, it was Westbrook who put his team in a position to be in a close game at the end. The point guard scored 43 points, a career playoff high and franchise NBA Finals record, and did so on an efficient 20-of-32 shooting. And with his team down four entering the fourth quarter, Westbrook scored 17 points in the final frame, the most fourth-quarter points by a losing player in the last 15 NBA Finals.

In addition to pouring in 43, Westbrook also had seven rebounds and five assists. In NBA history, the only other players to reach those totals in a Finals game are Jerry West, Rick Barry, John Havlicek, Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal. In the Thunder’s biggest game of the season, he was their premier performer.

The Heat are on the brink of an NBA title, but a loss in Game 5 would significantly shift the series, giving home-court advantage back to the Thunder. A similar game from Westbrook Thursday night could do just that.

The Miami Heat may have a 2-1 advantage and the series momentum in the NBA Finals after taking Games 2 and 3, but the teams have nearly played to a draw over the three-game span.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have actually outscored the Heat by a single point after a combined 144 minutes of action.

What's been the difference for the Heat that's allowed them to lead in this tight series?

IMPORTANCE OF FREE THROWS
The Miami Heat have enjoyed a huge advantage at the free throw line, shooting 85 percent compared to 70 percent for the Thunder, and overall have an 13-point edge in points from made free throws.

The advantage for the Heat is most surprising when you take into account the expected free throws that each team should have made using season percentages.

Based on the number of times each player has gotten to the line this series and their rate of making free throws entering the Finals, the Heat have collected eight more points than they were expected to, while the Thunder have collected seven fewer points than expected.

That’s a 15-point swing that literally is the difference between the Heat being up 2-1 rather than down 0-3, if you consider the timing of the attempts in each game. (In Game 1, an 11 point win by the Thunder, free throws were not the determining factor in the outcome.)

In Game 2, when the Heat shot an incredible 88 percent and the Thunder missed seven free throws, the Heat’s four-point victory would have turned into a one point Thunder win if the Heat and Thunder would have made free throws at their usual rates.

And in Game 3, when the Heat shot a blistering 89 percent while the Thunder missed nine free throws, the Heat’s six-point win would have actually been a two-point Thunder victory based on the expected free throws each team should have made.

WHO’S MORE CLUTCH: LeBRON OR DURANT?
Entering the Finals, Kevin Durant was one of the most clutch players this postseason, shooting 60 percent in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime when the score is within five points (“clutch time”), the second-highest field goal percentage behind Paul Pierce.

However, Durant hasn't been as clutch during the Finals, missing five of six shots from the field in “clutch time”.

LeBron James, in a small sample, has quietly turned in to Mr. Clutch. Entering the Finals, James was shooting 30 percent in “clutch time” this postseason, but has made three of his five shots against the Thunder.

James has been better in the clutch this year in the Finals because he isn't settling for long-distance jump shots. His average shot distance is 11.6 feet in “clutch time”, compared to 22.9 feet against the Mavericks last year, when he missed all seven of his field goals in those situations.

IS GAME 4 MUST-WIN FOR THUNDER?
Since the 2-3-2 format began in 1985, 13 teams have trailed 3-1 in the NBA Finals. None of those 13 teams went on to win the title. In fact, none of the series even went to a deciding Game 7.

Statistical Support from NBA.com

After the Oklahoma City Thunder’s loss to the Miami Heat in Game 2, many people are placing the blame on Russell Westbrook.

Westbrook took the most shots of anyone in the game, going 10-of-26 from the field and scoring 27 points. In some cases, the main thought seems to be that Kevin Durant, who went 12-for-22 from the field and finished with 32 points, should have gotten some of the opportunities that Westbrook “took away.”

In fact, the refrain that “he takes away too many shots from Durant” has been a commonly heard criticism of Westbrook all season. The problem with this attack is that the numbers show that the Thunder haven’t actually done better in games where Durant has had more opportunities than Westbrook this season.

When looking at it the simple way, it’s apparent that the team actually does better when Westbrook takes more shots. This is in terms of both offensive efficiency and win percentage.

Of course, field-goal attempts are just one part of a player’s offensive game –free throws and turnovers are also part of it. If we look at usage percentage – the percentage of team plays used by a player while he’s on the floor – we can see how often the ball ends with Westbrook or Durant, whether it be with a field-goal attempt, trip to the free-throw line, or turnover.

For some perspective, the average usage percentage is 20.0 percent, Durant’s average this season is 30.3 percent, and Westbrook’s average is 31.7 percent (5th-highest in NBA).

Looking at which player has had a higher usage percentage in each game, we can see a similar pattern emerges: The Thunder are more efficient offensively and win more games when Westbrook’s usage percentage exceeds Durant’s than vice versa.

Another thing we can look at is how the Thunder have performed when Westbrook and Durant use a lower/greater percentage of their team’s plays than usual.

There are four combinations when looking at each player’s usage percentage relative to his own average, presented in two different ways below:

• The Thunder offense is at its worst when Durant has an above average usage percentage and Westbrook has a below average usage percentage – averaging just 104.0 points per 100 possessions in those 20 games, with the team winning less than half of those as a result.

Meanwhile, the Thunder offense is still okay (slightly below average efficiency) when Westbrook uses more plays than usual and Durant uses fewer than usual. So shifting offensive opportunities directly from Westbrook to Durant, at least how that has been done in some games this season, does not seem to be optimal for OKC.

• The Thunder offense is at its best when Durant and Westbrook are both below average in terms of usage percentage, averaging an efficient 111.8 points per 100 possessions in those games. This would imply that getting others involved is the real key in the Thunder’s most effective offensive games.

Is this just about Westbrook setting others up better in those low-usage games? It doesn't look like it. In those 22 low-usage games, it is Durant's assists that go up (4.9 APG vs 3.1 in all other games), not Westbrook's (5.2 APG vs 5.7 in all other games).


Statistical support for this story from NBA.com

The Miami Heat will try and even the series tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder (ABC and ESPN3, 9 ET), but Elias tells us that Miami may already be in trouble. The Heat now trail in their third different series this postseason, and no team has ever won a title after trailing in three different series in a single postseason.

What's more, in each of their previous two NBA Finals appearances, the Heat lost Game 2 in both series (2006 and 2011). Miami is 4-5 on the road this postseason while averaging just 92.1 points, compared to 99.4 points at home. That road average is crucial, as the Heat are 8-0 this postseason when scoring at least 100 points but just 4-7 this postseason when they fail to reach 100.

Don't Blame James

While LeBron James struggled in the fourth quarter in the Finals last year against the Dallas Mavericks, that was not the case in Game 1 this time around. James ranked first on the team in field goal attempts and free throws in the fourth quarter and tied with Dwyane Wade for the team-high in points and points in the paint. His four free throw attempts were also more than the rest of the Heat combined.

James has also scored at least 25 points in each of his last 11 games, the second-longest streak of scoring 25+ points in his postseason career (had a 17-game streak across the 2008 and 2009 postseason).

Storm Warning

Things certainly look good for the Thunder. Since moving to Oklahoma City entering the 2008-09 season, the Thunder are 3-0 in series when they win Game 1. The Thunder are also 9-0 at home this postseason, and according to Elias, that is tied for the longest home win streak to start a postseason in franchise history. The Seattle SuperSonics started the 1978 postseason also winning nine.

What do the Thunder need to do to win Game 2? The answer lies in the fast break. The Thunder outscored the Heat in fast break points 24-4 in Game 1, marking the team’s second-highest fast break differential this postseason.

Another incredible game by Kevin Durant certainly wouldn't hurt, either. Durant’s 36 points in Game 1 tied the franchise mark for most points in a Finals game, and he also became the fourth-youngest (23 years-257 days) player in NBA history to score at least 35 points in a NBA Finals game.

Teammate Russell Westbrook is also heating up, having recorded at least 20 points and 10 assists in two of his last three games overall. That's impressive, considering he did not record any 20-10 games in his first 13 games this postseason. What's more, Elias says Westbrook is only the second player to record at least 25 points and 10 assists in his Finals debut, alongside Michael Jordan.