Stats & Info: Next Level


Michael Hickey/US Presswire LeBron James has at least 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists in back-to-back postseason games.
Game 6 between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers (ESPN, 8 ET) will feature several key storylines to watch, including how the Heat replace a suspended Udonis Haslem. Miami will be without one of its best mid-range shooters, as Haslem has made seven mid-range jump shots (outside paint, inside 3-point territory) this series, trailing only LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Haslem has also been a spark off the Heat's bench in the last three games, scoring double figures in each of the last two. In three games Haslem has come off the bench this postseason, Miami averages 25.7 bench points. In seven games Haslem started, the Heat have gotten only 16.1 points from their bench.

With Dexter Pittman also suspended, the best option for the Heat is likely Ronny Turiaf, as his +13 this series is the highest among the Heat's available big men for Game 6. In this series, Turiaf has played only 65 minutes in five games. However, when he's been on the court, the Heat have outscored the Pacers by 13 points. Miami has also limited Indiana to just 33 percent shooting when he's playing. Also available in the frontcourt are Joel Anthony (+7) and Juwan Howard (+5).

Overall, the Heat appear to be in good position to advance. In NBA history, teams that have held a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win the series 85.9 percent of the time, including 4-0 in the First Round this postseason. In addition, the Pacers have never come back to win a best-of-seven series after trailing 3-2 (according to Elias they are 0-8 all-time).

James has been a prime reason why the Heat can close out the series tonight. He has recorded at least 30 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists in back-to-back postseason games, and if he matches those numbers in Game 6, he will become the first player in NBA history to do so in three consecutive postseason games.

History says James will have another strong performance tonight. According to Elias, James has scored at least 20 points in each of the last 11 potential playoff series-clinching games on the road, the second-longest current streak of any player in the league, behind only Kobe Bryant (19).

Meanwhile, Danny Granger (sprained ankle) has said that he will start Game 6. His play will be crucial, as he has been much better at home this series than on the road (averaging over nine points more at home).

What's more, the combination of himself, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, George Hill and David West have outscored opponents by 75 points when on the court together, the highest of any five-man lineup on any team this postseason.

A key for Indiana will be on the boards. The Pacers have outrebounded the Heat 102-76 in their wins in Games 2 and 3, but have lost the battle on the boards in their losses in Games 4 and 5 (outrebounded 96-73). When Hibbert is on the court, the Pacers are +15 rebounding, but with him off are -19.

Jesse Johnson/US Presswire Dan Haren has lost four straight starts for the second time in his career.
Dan Haren of the Los Angeles Angels will be looking to change his fortunes around when he gets the nod tonight against the Seattle Mariners (10:10 ET). He enters having lost four straight starts for the second time in his career, having previously done it in 2005. While Haren does have a 5.79 ERA in that stretch, the Angels have managed a total of two runs in those four games.

The Angels are 1-8 in his nine starts, and only Haren and Chris Volstad of the Chicago Cubs have seen their team lose eight of their starts this season. In addition, only teammate Ervin Santana has received worse support in the AL. The Angels have scored more than three runs just once in Haren's nine starts.

Ike Davis Slumping
The New York Mets are four games over .500 despite Ike Davis having one of the worst seasons in the majors. Davis has the second-lowest batting average among qualifying players, including a .065 average at home, and based on WAR, Davis is the least valuable player in the majors.

When he is making contact this year, Davis has seen a very high percentage of his balls in play turn to outs. Among all players this season, Davis' .188 batting average on balls in play is the lowest.

Last year, Davis found considerable success against the fastball, batting .343 with an OPS of 1.100. This year, those numbers have dropped to .157 and .448.

Other Key Notes
- Ichiro Suzuki was just 2-18 vs Dan Haren last season. He's a .227 career batter vs Haren.
- Hunter Pence is 7-12 (.583) in his career vs Jake Westbrook.
- Philip Humber has a 7.86 ERA since his perfect game.
- Albert Pujols has 3 HR, 8 RBI in his last nine games.
- Cincinnati Reds have a season-high five-game win streak.

Road not kind to Celtics in clinching games

May, 23, 2012
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Issac Baldizon/Getty ImagesSince the “Big 3” era began in 2007-08, the Celtics are 2-10 in road games with a chance to close out a series. The rest of the NBA is 28-28 in such games.
The Boston Celtics visit the Philadelphia 76ers Wednesday night (ESPN, 8 ET) for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston leads the series 3-2 after its Game 5 win on Monday, but the 76ers are 4-0 this postseason in games immediately following a loss.

In NBA history, teams that have held a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win the series 85.9 percent of the time (213-35). Teams with 3-2 series leads went 4-0 in the first round this postseason.

Since the new "Big 3" era began in the 2007-08 season, the Celtics are 2-10 in road games with a chance to close out a series. The rest of the NBA is 28-28 in such games.

Key Players
Kevin Garnett has increased his offensive production this postseason. He’s averaging a double-double with 19.3 PPG and 10.5 RPG, up from his regular season numbers of 15.8 PPG and 8.2 RPG. In addition, he’s shooting 52.1 percent from the floor in the playoffs, compared to 50.3 percent in the regular season.

The Celtics have outscored opponents by 136 points in the 403 minutes Garnett has been on the floor this postseason. Boston has been outscored by 85 points in the 130 minutes he’s been off the court.

Andre Iguodala is shooting 52.6 percent (10-for-19) from 3-point range but is shooting only 45.5 percent (10-for-22) from the free throw line in this series.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, since the NBA instituted the 3-point shot in 1979-80, only two players have shot for a higher percentage from 3-point range than from the free throw line in a single playoff series (min. 15 attempts in each category). Tony Parker in the first round in 2004 (68.8 3-point pct; 68.2 free throw pct) and Rasheed Wallace in the first round in 2006 (54.2 3-point pct; 43.8 free throw pct).

Stats to Know
Boston has yet to allow 100 points this postseason. The Celtics are one of three teams that haven’t allowed 100 points in a single game this postseason, joining the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs.

Since scoring 109 points against the Chicago Bulls in Game 2 of the first round, Philadelphia hasn’t scored more than 92 points in any of the nine games since. That is the longest single postseason streak of scoring fewer than 93 points since the Detroit Pistons (11 games) in 2006.

Wainwright lives on the edge in shutout

May, 23, 2012
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Adam Wainwright regained some of his 2009 and 2010 magic on Tuesday, tossing his third career shutout and first since August 6, 2010.

For a guy who had a 9.78 ERA in his previous four home starts this season, the shutout must have been an especially sweet breath of fresh air for Wainwright.
Adam Wainwright
Wainwright

Here's a look at what made him so succesful:

• Wainwright lived around the edge of the zone with his fastball, especially with two strikes. Fifteen of the 18 (83.3 percent) two-strike fastballs he threw were within four inches of the edge of the zone, both in and out. In his first eight starts this season, 59 percent of his two-strike fastballs were in that location. All four of his strikeouts with his fastball were around the edge; he had only six strikeouts with his fastball there in his first eight starts.

• Wainwright threw 68 fastballs among his 111 pitches (61.3 percent), his highest percentage since coming back from Tommy John surgery and second highest since 2009.

• Wainwright also used his signature curveball to put hitters away. He recorded six outs with his curveball, including four via strikeout, without allowing a hit.

• Wainwright was efficient. He recorded 10 outs on either the first or second pitch of the at-bat, his most in a start since 2009. He averaged just 12.3 pitches per inning, well below his season average of 16.8.

Elsewhere around MLB:

How long had it been since Roy Halladay last lost to the Nationals franchise? They were the Montreal Expos, Halladay was with the Toronto Blue Jays and Halladay had only 27 career wins at the time. The year was 2002. Halladay now has 192 career wins, and had won 11 straight decisions against the Nationals/Expos before this loss.

Albert Pujols' mashed his fourth home run this season and 449th of his career. That ties him with Jeff Bagwell and Vladimir Guerrero for 35th on the all-time HR list. Next up is Carl Yastrzemski with 452.

Ricky Nolasco picked up his 69th career win, passing Dontrelle Willis for the most in Marlins franchise history. Josh Johnson (50) and A.J. Burnett (49) are third and fourth on that list.

Phil Hughes again struggled with the longball. Before Hughes, the last pitcher to allow a HR in each of his first nine starts of a season was Runelvys Hernandez who did so in 12 straight back in 2006 for the Kansas City Royals.

Minor, Leake look to reverse fortunes

May, 20, 2012
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Hitters could have their way Monday night in Cincinnati when a pair of struggling starters take the mound for Monday Night Baseball (7 ET on ESPN).

The Atlanta Braves are hoping Mike Minor can avoid making history. Minor has allowed at least six earned runs in four straight starts, the longest streak in the majors since Kenny Rogers in 2008 and tied with Rosy Ryan of the 1925-26 Boston Braves for the longest streak in franchise history.

Minor was 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA through his first four starts of the season, but his ERA has jumped to 7.09 after being roughed up in each of his past four outings.

Minor’s reversal of fortune can be tied to his fastball, which has been ineffective in his past four starts. Over that span, opponents are hitting .339 with six home runs against Minor’s heater after batting .277 with no homers in his first four starts of the season.

But the Cincinnati Reds will send their own slumping starter to the mound Monday.

After going 12-9 with a 3.86 ERA in 2011, Mike Leake has lost his first five decisions in 2012 and brings a 6.21 ERA into Monday’s start. With a loss Monday, Leake would become the fourth Reds pitcher to start a season 0-6 in the last 15 years, joining Dontrelle Willis (2011), Homer Bailey (2008) and Brian Reith (2001).

And while Minor is having major issues with his fastball, it’s the changeup that is giving Leake the most trouble. Opponents have nine hits in 17 at-bats ending in a Leake changeup this season, including five extra-base hits.

Only Luke Hochevar (.600) and Aaron Harang (.556) are allowing hitters a higher batting average among qualifiers than Leake (.529) on changeups this season.

Leake has pitched well against the Braves in limited opportunities, however. He has a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta with eight strikeouts and four walks. If Leake can fix his off-speed issues, he could lead the Reds to their eighth win in their last 11 home games in the series.

Greinke extends historic home streak

May, 20, 2012
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Zack Greinke
Greinke
No team could use a stretch of favorable pitching matchups more than the Minnesota Twins, who entered Sunday with the worst record in the majors at 14-26. But, as teams far better than the Twins have learned the hard way, facing Zack Greinke at Miller Park is anything but favorable for opposing hitters.

Greinke won again at home Sunday, allowing just one run and striking out six as the Milwaukee Brewers smashed the Twins 16-4. It was Greinke’s 18th straight win in a home decision, with the last 14 coming since he arrived in Milwaukee from Kansas City.

With the win, Greinke became the first pitcher to win 18 straight home decisions since Kenny Rogers won 19 consecutive decisions at home with four different teams from 1997 to 2000.

Greinke and Rogers are two of the six pitchers with a win streak of at least 18 in home decisions in the live-ball era (since 1920). They’re joined by Roy Face, Frank Viola, Ray Kremer and Lefty Grove, who had two separate streaks of at least 18 wins in home decisions (18 from 1932-33, 20 from 1938-40).

Greinke hasn’t lost a home start since July 26, 2010, when he allowed eight runs over four innings in a 19-1 loss to the Twins.

Greinke wasn’t the only Brewer to make history Sunday. Jonathan Lucroy drove in seven runs, tying a franchise record. He joined Carlos Ruiz (May 2, 2012) as the only catchers to have at least seven RBI in a game in the last two seasons.

Elsewhere in the majors Sunday, Max Scherzer had a career-high 15 strikeouts, one shy of a Detroit Tigers franchise record, in a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Scherzer induced 26 swings-and-misses, the most by any pitcher this season and the most since Brandon Morrow had 26 on May 5, 2010 vs the Cleveland Indians.

Scherzer became the second AL pitcher to strike out at least 15 in seven or fewer innings in the last 90 years. Baltimore Orioles starter Mike Mussina struck out 15 in seven innings against the Boston Red Sox on September 24, 2000.

In other MLB action Sunday:

" Stephen Strasburg hit his first career home run and earned the win in the Washington Nationals 9-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Strasburg is now hitting .375 this season and has an extra-base hit in four of his last five games.

" Josh Beckett allowed one run on seven hits as the Red Sox beat the Philadelphia Phillies 5-1. Beckett has now won consecutive starts for the first time since August 2011 and has allowed one run in his last 14T innings.

" The Phillies fell to 1-5 in Cliff Lee’s starts this season after he allowed five runs, his most since July 2011, to the Red Sox. The Phillies were 22-10 in Lee’s 32 starts last season.

Curve helps Verlander nearly make history

May, 19, 2012
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US Presswire
Tigers P Justin Verlander came within two outs of his third career no-hitter Friday against the Pirates.
For 8 1/3 innings on Friday night, Detroit Tigers P Justin Verlander was unhittable, thanks largely to a nasty curveball that the Pittsburgh Pirates could not touch. Just when he was on the brink of joining rarified air, though, it was a breaking ball that got in the way of history.

Verlander lost a no-hit bid on a Josh Harrison single with one out in the ninth when Harrison smacked a hanging slider into center field. Prior to Harrison’s hit, which came after he trailed 0-2 in the count, hitters were 3-36 (.083) with 21 strikeouts this season after being down 0-2 to Verlander. It was the only hit he allowed.

As has become the norm with the towering righty, Verlander’s velocity increased as the game went on. Interestingly enough, his fastball averaged just 91.4 mph in the first three innings, the lowest it has been through three in the last four seasons. From the seventh on, not one fastball was below 97 on the gun.

While his heater was strong, it was Verlander’s curve that baffled Pittsburgh. He threw it in the zone early in the count, then got batters to chase by tossing six of the eight curveballs he threw with two strikes out of the zone. Four of his punchouts were via the curve.

Verlander, who threw 109 pitches and walked two batters in the Tigers’ 6-0 victory, struck out 12 Pirates, tying for the second-most strikeouts in his career. With this effort, he joins an exclusive club of pitchers to throw shutouts allowing one hit or fewer with at least 12 strikeouts in interleague play. The only other time it was done? In 2007, by Justin Verlander.

That performance came during his no-hitter against the Milwaukee Brewers. Had Verlander finished the job Friday, he would have become the first player with multiple no-hitters in interleague play.

According to Elias, Verlander is only the second Tigers pitcher to toss a shutout in which he gave up no more than one hit and fanned 12 or more hitters. Hall of Famer Jim Bunning did it for Detroit against the Boston Red Sox in 1958.

History was right at Verlander's fingertips. He was two outs away from becoming just the sixth pitcher in major league history to throw at least three no-hitters, joining a club that includes Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax, Bob Feller, Larry Corcoran and Cy Young. He also would have become the Tigers’ all-time leader in no-hitters, passing Virgil Trucks.

Given the fact that he has taken five no-hit bids into the eighth inning, it would come as a surprise to no one to one day see Verlander’s name on that list.

Kobe is below average on the last shot

May, 17, 2012
May 17
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US PresswireSteve Blake (left) made almost 40 percent of his corner 3-pointers during the season.
In his playoff career, the Los Angeles Lakers’ Kobe Bryant is 7-for-27 on game-tying or go-ahead shots in the final 24 seconds of the fourth quarter and overtime. That’s a field goal percentage of 25.9, which is below the league average of 27.2 percent, and pales in comparison to his teammates over that span. Other Lakers are 9-for-21 (42.9 percent) on such shots, even after Steve Blake's miss in Game 2 against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

In his 16-year career (including postseason), Bryant has made 71 of 226 field goal attempts (31.4 percent) in one-possession games in the last 24 seconds of the fourth quarter and overtime. That ranks 57th among 114 players who have at least 30 attempts in those situations over that span. The league average is 31.6 percent on such shots over that span.

So, should Blake have taken the last shot?

According to Synergy, Blake was 40-for-88 (45.5 percent) on unguarded catch-and-shoots during the regular season. In the playoffs, Blake was 12-for-23 before his final shot. (In Game 2, he was 1-for-4 on those shots before the last attempt.)

According to NBA.com, Blake was 29-of-74 (39.2 percent) on corner 3's this season, including the playoffs, including 16-for-35 on 3-pointers from the right corner. (Both numbers include the final miss in Game 2.)

Blake now is 12-for-24 in the playoffs on unguarded catch-and-shoots. The league average in this year's playoffs on these shots is 38.9 percent. Blake’s 50.0 shooting percentage on unguarded catch-and-shoot attempts is tied for seventh among 43 players with at least 10 such field goal attempts this postseason.

During the regular season, the league average on unguarded catch-and-shoots was 40.6 percent, so Blake was above average in the regular season as well.

No matter how you look at it, it was a pretty good percentage shot considering the situation.

-- Statistical support for this story provided by NBA.com. Alok Pattani contributed to this post.

Heat must transition better in Indiana

May, 17, 2012
May 17
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Robert Duyos/Sun Sentinel/MCT/Getty ImagesWithout Chris Bosh, much more will be asked of LeBron James (left) and Dwyane Wade.
(The Indiana Pacers host the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, Thursday at 7 ET on ESPN.)

How important is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat? From the historical perspective, it’s very important.

Best-of-seven series in which the first two games were split have been won by the Game 3 winner 77 percent of the time (143 out of 187). It would seem to be even more critical for the Pacers than the Heat. If the visiting team wins Game 3 in a 1-1 series, that team has gone on to win the series 83 percent of the time. When the home team wins Game 3 in this scenario, it wins the series 71 percent of the time (74 of 104).

Whatever the outcome of Game 3, expect it to be low-scoring. Both teams have held their opponents to fewer than 100 points in each game this postseason. In fact, the Heat are first (82.6) and the Pacers are tied for second (84.1) in scoring defense this postseason.

The Heat are coming off a Game 2 loss that saw them score fewer than 75 points in a playoff game for the first time since 2009, and that probably had something to do with their failure to convert in transition.

In Game 2, Miami was outscored by Indiana in transition, 16-10. The Heat are 0-2 this postseason when they are outscored in transition. Miami also shot a postseason-low 22.2 percent (2-9) in transition, including 0-for-3 by Dwyane Wade.

Also in Game 2, LeBron James missed two free throws with 54 seconds left and the Heat trailing by one point. This season (including playoffs), James now is 10-17 on free throws in one-possession games in the fourth quarter or overtime with one minute or less remaining. The rest of the Heat are a combined 13-for-15.

Miami’s troubles in transition could have been offset by a more effective half-court game, but the Heat have struggled in that facet of the game so far in this series.

After shooting 44 percent against the Knicks in the first round, Miami is hitting just 38 percent of its shots in the half court against Indiana. And the Heat’s match-up along the front line -- already a statistical advantage for the Pacers -- has been tipped even more Indiana’s way by the injury to Chris Bosh.

Of the eight teams left in the playoffs, Indiana owns the second-highest scoring starting front court (45.3 points per game). Only the Boston Celtics receive more scoring production from their front-court starters.

The Pacers have outrebounded their opponents 322-277 this postseason. Their +6.4 postseason rebound difference is the highest among the remaining teams in the postseason.

Roy Hibbert has been a force inside for the Pacers, averaging 11.4 points and 10.9 rebounds this postseason. David West is averaging 16.0 points and 10.0 rebounds, making them the only teammates averaging a double-double this postseason. Hibbert is also second in blocks this postseason averaging 3.29 per game (Andrew Bynum, 3.40).

Darvish whirls best with early strikes

May, 17, 2012
May 17
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Kevin Jairaj/US PresswireeYu Darvish is tied for the major-league lead in wins after improving to 6-1 with a win Wednesday against the Athletics.
Yu Darvish picked up his sixth win of the season, tied for most in the majors, as the Texas Rangers beat the Oakland Athletics 4-1.

Darvish has struck out at least seven batters in each of his last five starts after striking out 14 and walking 13 in his first three starts. That’s the longest streak off seven-strikeout games by a Rangers' pitcher since Bobby Witt in 1987.

The key for Darvish has been the most important pitch in baseball – strike one. When he throws a strike on the first pitch to a batter, they hit .146 and strikeout nearly eight times as often as they walk. A 1-0 count leads to a .308 average and more walks than whiffs.

Over his first three starts, Darvish fell behind in the count more often than not. He threw first-pitch strikes to only 42 of 88 batters (48 percent). In his most recent five starts, he has upped that percentage to 60 percent (84 of 139). On Wednesday, he threw a strike on the first pitch to 17 of 28 hitters, right at his average over his last five starts.

This has allowed him to rely less on his fastball and slider and more on his changeup and curveball. In his first three starts, nearly half of his pitches were fastballs and opposing hitters hit .343 against his heat. He was forced to go with the fastball when he fell behind in the count, recording 11 walks and just three strikeouts on the pitch in his first three starts.

In his last five starts, he has used the fastball just over a third of the time while unveiling a changeup that he didn’t throw in the first three contests and increasing his curveball frequency from 11 percent to 17 percent.

For the season, opposing hitters have only 3 hits in 38 at-bats (.079) and have struck out 24 times against his curveball. That’s the most strikeouts that he has recorded with any pitch, even though it’s only the fourth-most used pitch in his arsenal.

Around the Diamond
• Adam Jones hit a game-winning home run in the 15th inning as the Baltimore Orioles won in Kansas City. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he is the first major leaguer with two game-winning home runs in the 15th inning or later in the same season since 1988. That year, Mark McGwire hit game-winners in the 16th inning of back-to-back days in July.

• Also from our friends at Elias, Jamie Moyer became the oldest player to drive in a run in a game. Julio Franco was nearly six months younger when he drove in his final run in 2007.

• Gio Gonzalez gave up his first home run of the season after 48⅓ innings. He was the last qualified starter – meaning a minimum of one inning pitched per team game – to allow a homer this year.

Lee Singer contributed to this post.

Angels flip script in shutout of Athletics

May, 16, 2012
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Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty ImagesAfter dropping his first six starts of the season, Ervin Santana has turned the corner and won his last two games.
Earlier this season, Ervin Santana couldn’t get any run support. Against the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday, he took matters into his own hands.

Santana started the season by losing his first six starts. His 5.59 ERA in that span didn’t help, but the Los Angeles Angels offense made picking up wins impossible.

After scoring three runs in Santana’s first start of the season, the Angels were shut out in his next five starts. Thanks to our friends at Elias, we know that this stretch was the first time in major-league history that a team failed to score a run in five straight starts by a pitcher.

Through their first 37 games, the Angels have been shut out eight times. The last American League team to be shut out this frequently early in the season was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who finished 43-119 that season.

Santana turned the corner in a 6-2 win over the Minnesota Twins last week and was even better against the A’s Tuesday afternoon. He picked up his second straight win by striking out nine in 7⅔ shutout innings.

Santana was especially effective with his slider. He recorded six of his nine strikeouts on the pitch, with Oakland hitters missed on 12 of their 23 swings. Those 12 swinging strikes are the most that he has recorded with his slider in the last two seasons.

In addition to the six strikeouts, the A’s recorded outs all four times they put his slider in play. It was the first time since Santana’s no-hitter last July that he did not allow a hit with the pitch.

Santana was also able to mix in his changeup to keep the seven lefties in the Oakland lineup off balance. He threw 17 changeups, all to left-handed hitters, his most in a start in the last four seasons and didn’t surrender a hit on the pitch.

Mike Trout scored three of the four runs in support of Santana, finishing the game with three hits and his third home run of the season. After struggling against fastballs last season, Trout is hitting over .300 with all three homers against heat this season.

Albert Pujols also recorded one of his best games at the plate so far this season, rapping out three hits and driving in two runs. Three of his six multi-hit games this year have come against the Athletics, including both three-hit games.

Around the Diamond
• Bryce Harper went deep for the second straight game. According to Elias, he’s the fifth number one pick to hit his first two home runs in back-to-back games, joining Josh Hamilton, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr. and Darryl Strawberry.

• Edwin Encarnacion hit his 12th home run of the season, with nine of them at Rogers Centre. In the last two years, 23 of his 29 homers (79 percent) have been at home. That’s the highest percentage in the majors over that span.

• Derek Lowe induced 22 outs on groundballs as he became the first pitcher since Scott Erickson in 2002 to toss a shutout without recording a strikeout.

• After allowing only seven total runs in five April starts, Colby Lewis has allowed six-or-more runs in each of his starts in May.

Kemp's impact will be missed by Dodgers

May, 15, 2012
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AP Photo/Chris Carlson Matt Kemp was just the third player to bat .400 with 10+ HR and 25+ RBI in April, joining Larry Walker in 1997 and Tony Perez in 1970.
The Los Angeles Dodgers placed Matt Kemp on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left hamstring after Monday night's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and Kemp's absence will certainly be felt offensively.

Kemp saw his MLB-leading active streak of 399 games played come to an end Monday, and while his production decreased this month, his early-season performance was impressive. His 12 home runs by April 30th were the fifth-most in MLB history, and according to Elias, was just the third player since 1920 (when RBI became official) to hit .400 with 10+ HR and 25+ RBI in April (excluding any March games).

Without Kemp, the Dodgers also lose one of the best high-ball hitters in baseball. Kemp is 11-for-21 (.524) against high pitches in 2012, tied with Ryan Sweeney for the best batting average on such pitches in baseball entering Tuesday.

For all of these reasons and more, Kemp has been one of the most valuable position players in baseball over the last two seasons. Using the Baseball Reference metric “Wins Above Replacement,” Kemp is second in the National League and fourth in Major League Baseball in WAR since the start of the 2011 season. Only Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist and Ryan Braun have a higher WAR than Kemp in that span.

Kemp, however, did see his production trail off drastically in May. During this month, Kemp was batting just .212 in 11 games and had not gone deep. The difference has primarily come against the fastball. During April, Kemp batted .465 against the heater with nine home runs. In May, that average dipped to .250. His strikeout percentage against the fastball also jumped significantly, increasing from 11.3 percent in April to 28.6 percent in May.

Working hard helps Lester down Mariners

May, 15, 2012
May 15
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Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesJon Lester tossed his second complete game of the season as the Red Sox won their season-high fourth straight home game.
Jon Lester narrowly missed out on tossing his first shutout since 2008, but he did manage his second complete game of the year as the Boston Red Sox beat the Seattle Mariners 6-1.

The win was the fourth straight at home for the Red Sox after starting the season with a 4-11 record at Fenway Park. It’s their longest home winning streak since taking nine in a row last July.

With the win, Lester improves to 2-1 with a 1.67 ERA in his last four starts, a stark contrast with his 0-2 record and 6.00 ERA through his first four games.

He was able to get the Mariners out by featuring his hard stuff. He threw a fastball, cutter or sinker on 94 of his 119 pitches. The only time this season that he threw a similar number was against the Chicago White Sox on April 28, when he pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out a season-high seven batters.

The Mariners’ lack of plate discipline played into his hands as well. He didn’t walk a hitter and only threw six pitches when facing a three-ball count. That was despite the fact that less than half of his pitches – 58 of 119 – were actually in the strike zone. He tied a season-high inducing 14 swinging strikes.

He threw 12 curveballs in the game, right at his season average, but used it as his out pitch. Lester recorded four outs, including two strikeouts, without allowing a hit against his curve.

On the flip side, the Mariners lost for the ninth time in their last 10 road games. They had started the season by winning eight of their first 12 games away from Safeco Field.

Seattle starter Jason Vargas allowed home runs to Daniel Nava and Kelly Shoppach during his outing. He has allowed seven homers this season, all of them on the road.

Quick Hits
• Bryce Harper hit his first career home run. He’s the youngest player to homer in the majors since Adrian Beltre hit seven home runs in 1998.

• Speaking of the Washington Nationals, they scored eight runs in today’s win against the San Diego Padres, becoming the last team in the majors to reach that mark this season.

• Adam Dunn homered off Drew Smyly, the first time he went deep against a southpaw since hitting two homers against Clayton Kershaw in August 2010. His last 30 homers had been against right-handed pitchers.

It was his 12th home run of the season, surpassing his total of 11 from last year.

• Emilio Bonifacio stole his MLB-leading 18th base on Monday. He has yet to be caught stealing this season. No other player in the majors has more than seven steals without being caught.

• On the career hit front, Derek Jeter and Placido Polanco both reached milestones on Monday.

Jeter went 1-for-5 to move past Robin Yount into sole possession of 16th place on the all-time hit list. Polanco became the 17th active player to reach 2,000 career hits.

Sliders key on Monday Night Baseball

May, 13, 2012
May 13
10:36
PM ET

Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireRyan Dempster brings a 1.02 ERA to St. Louis on "Monday Night Baseball," where he's looking to pick up his first win of the season.
The major league leader in ERA takes the hill Monday when Ryan Dempster and the Chicago Cubs visit the St. Louis Cardinals (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET).

Dempster has allowed just four earned runs in five starts -- a 1.02 ERA -- but is 0-1. The Cubs have lost all of Dempster's starts, scoring a total of eight runs in the five games.

According to The Elias Sports Bureau, no pitcher in major league history has had an ERA as low as Dempster through five starts without a win.

He’s using his slider more often this season while decreasing the use of his fastball and splitter. That slider has been one of the best in baseball. Hitters are just 5-for-56 against Dempster’s slider this season, a paltry .094 batting average. (Last year through five starts, he allowed 11 hits against the slide piece.) Only one pitcher in baseball -- Matt Cain -- has a lower batting average against his slider (min. 50 PA ending with a slider).

Dempster’s opponent, Jake Westbrook, is off to a fine start of his own. He’s 4-2 with a 1.76 ERA and has pitched into the seventh inning in all six of his starts. Only Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay have pitched into the seventh inning more often this season.

Westbrook has improved his slider by keeping it out of the middle of the strike zone. Last season, more than 21 percent of his sliders were in the middle-third of the strike zone and just 52 percent were away. This season, fewer than 13 percent of his sliders are in the middle and more than 62 percent are away from hitters. As the chart to the right shows, hitters are swinging at the pitch less but are missing it nearly twice as often.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH
• Skip Schumaker is hitting .417 (20-for-48) against Dempster, the second-highest batting average by any hitter with 40 plate appearances against him.

• Rafael Furcal is hitting .154 (6-for-39) against Dempster, the lowest batting average by any player with 40 plate appearances against him.

• Alfonso Soriano is hitting .120 (3-for-25) against Westbrook, the third-lowest batting average by any player with 25 plate appearances against him.

• David DeJesus is 7-for-26 against Westbrook, just a .269 batting average, but he’s the only Cub who’s homered off the Cardinals righty. Plus, only two players have faced Westbrook more often without a strikeout.

RIVALRY REVISITED
These two teams first met in 1892, when the Chicago Colts beat the St. Louis Browns 14-10 on Opening Day. The Cubs lead the all-time series 1,169-1,107. Since the start of the 2002 season, the series is tied 86-86.

Weaver looks to slow Hamilton, Rangers

May, 13, 2012
May 13
2:58
PM ET
Getty ImagesJered Weaver is looking to improve to 6-0 for the second-straight season, but Josh Hamilton and the Texas Rangers stand in his way.
Hammer time comes to Sunday Night Baseball (8 ET, ESPN) as Josh Hamilton and the Texas Rangers host the Los Angeles Angels in the rubber match of their three-game series.

Hamilton has already had quite a week, with nine home runs and 15 RBI in six games. With a home run on Sunday, he can become the first player with 19 home runs in his team’s first 35 games of a season. Albert Pujols (2006 Cardinals) and Cy Williams (1923 Phillies) had 18 home runs after 35 team games.

He needs one homer to match Shawn Green (2002), Albert Belle (1995) and Frank Howard (1968) for the most home runs in a seven-game span with ten.

In fact, Hamilton has almost outproduced the Angels on his own since Monday. Compared to his nine homers and 15 RBI since Monday, the Angels have driven in 18 on four home runs in the same span.

It hasn’t just been Hamilton for the Rangers this season. The Rangers and Cardinals are both outscoring their opponents by more than two runs per game. No other team is averaging more than one more run scored than its opponent.

Jered Weaver will look to slow down Hamilton and the Rangers offense. He is looking to start a season 6-0 for the third time in his career. Only nine pitchers, none of them active, have done that in major-league history. The record is four seasons by Roger Clemens.

Weaver has allowed just one run in his last 23 innings, but has struggled in Arlington. In 13 career starts at Rangers Ballpark, he has posted a 2-6 record with a 4.55 ERA. The only ballpark where he has a worse ERA in more than three starts is Fenway Park, where he has a 7.16 ERA in six starts.

Weaver has been able to succeed by relying on his fastball early and expanding his repertoire as the game progresses. He throws fastballs 77 percent of the time the first time through the order but only relies on heat 54 percent of the time after that.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Albert Pujols has struggled since joining the Angels in the offseason. Entering the year, his 1.037 OPS was the sixth-highest in major-league history. So far this season, his .514 OPS is the fourth-lowest in the American League.

His biggest problem has been identifying pitches outside the strike zone. He drew a walk against the Rangers on Saturday, snapping a career-long streak of 14 straight games without a free pass.

In his first 11 seasons, he drew a walk in 13 percent of his plate appearances – so far this year, he’s drawing walks only 5 percent of the time. He is swinging at pitches outside the zone 36 percent of the time, compared to a league average of 28 percent.
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