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The Washington Redskins mortgaged their future on QB Robert Griffin III, trading their 2012 first- and second-round picks and their first-round picks in 2013 and 2014 in order to draft the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner.


So it came as a surprise to many when the Redskins used their fourth-round pick on Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins.

From an historical standpoint, the Redskins are:

• First team since the 1989 Green Bay Packers to draft two quarterbacks in the first four rounds. In '89, Green Bay selected Anthony Dilweg in the third round then Jeff Graham in the fourth round. (They combined to make seven NFL starts, all by Dilweg.)

• First team since the 1971 Houston Oilers to use two of their first three draft picks on quarterbacks. In 1971, the Oilers took Dan Pastorini with the third overall pick, then selected Lynn Dickey in the third round. (Both went on to start more than 100 games during their careers.)

Cousins was not the only QB transaction made by the Redskins on Wednesday. They also released John Beck, who started three games last season. Combined with Rex Grossman the pair committed 30 turnovers, which was tied with Tampa Bay last season for the most turnovers committed by a team’s quarterbacks.

For what it's worth, the only team to select three quarterbacks in the same draft in the Common Draft Era is the Oakland Raiders, who took Dave Humm (5th), Harry Knight (9th) and Tom Doyle (14th) in 1975.

Draft Wrap-up
• More than 55 percent of the drafted players (142 of 253) came from four conferences: SEC (42 players), Big Ten (41), ACC (31), Pac-12 (28). It’s the sixth straight year that the SEC had the most selections. Almost 20 percent of the players drafted (50 of 253) were defensive backs.

• Alabama had the most players drafted with eight, followed by Oklahoma and Georgia with seven.

• Some schools that did not have any players drafted: UCLA, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Minnesota, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech, Washington State.

• The Browns made the most picks (11) and the Saints made the fewest (5).

• The Minnesota Vikings selected wide receivers Greg Childs and Jarius Wright from Arkansas. Minnesota is the first team to draft two wide receivers from the same school in the same draft since the 2007 Indianapolis Colts took Anthony Gonzalez and Roy Hall from Ohio State.

• After allowing an NFL-worst 411.6 yards per game in 2011, the Packers drafted defensive players with their first six picks. The Patriots, who finished 31st in yards allowed last season, also took six defensive players with their first six picks. Green Bay and New England became the first teams since the 2002 Titans and 2002 Colts to draft defensive players with their first six picks of a draft, and just the seventh and eighth teams to do so in the Common Draft Era (since 1967).

• The draft started with the Colts taking a quarterback and it ended with them taking a quarterback. Mr. Irrelevant is Northern Illinois' Chandler Harnish, the first time since 1997 that a QB was the last pick. (In '97, Mr. Irrelevant was Ron McAda from Army.)

• Speaking of quarterbacks, Case Keenum (155) and Kellen Moore (142) rank first and second, respectively, with the most touchdown passes in FBS history. Both, however, went undrafted. At Boise State, Moore went 50-3 (.943 win percentage), the best record by starting quarterback in the history of college football. (Moore signed with the Detriot Lions shortly after the draft.)

Stats & Information gets you ready for the NFL Draft at the end of the month with a look at the biggest need for each team. Today, we take a look at the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys
Need: Secondary

Last season the Cowboys had trouble defending the deep ball, allowing 43 percent of passes over 20 air yards to be completed, fourth-worst in the NFL.

The Cowboys also got burned on throws to the sidelines, giving up 15 touchdowns with just five interceptions on tosses outside the numbers. Only the Bills and Vikings had worse differentials.

Cornerback Brandon Carr was a high-profile addition to the Dallas secondary, but further depth is necessary.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Mark Barron, S, Alabama
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

New York Giants
Need: Linebacker

The Giants’ defense relied on a standard pass rush last season, sending four or fewer pass rushers on nearly 70 percent of dropbacks, which ranked among the top 15 teams in the NFL.

However, the Giants’ linebackers defended or intercepted only nine passes last year, tied for seventh-fewest in the league.

New York also had issues defending short throws in the middle of the field, allowing completions on 71 percent of passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and inside the numbers (26th in NFL).

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

Philadelphia Eagles
Need: Defense

The Eagles traded for LB DeMeco Ryans in the offseason, but their defense could use more upgrading. Philadelphia was one of three teams to send four or fewer pass rushers on more than 80 percent of dropbacks last season.

However, even with linebackers frequently dropping into coverage, the Eagles were susceptible to the short passing game.

An interior defensive line presence might be necessary as well to help stop the run. The Eagles line up defensive ends wide, leaving the middle open. The result? They allowed 4.9 yards per rush up the middle last season, which ranked second-worst in the NFL.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Washington Redskins
Need: Quarterback

The Redskins really struggled on long throws in 2011, notching the worst completion percentage (22 percent) and tying for the fewest touchdowns (2) on passes that traveled more than 20 air yards.

Washington is expected to take Robert Griffin III with the second pick in the draft, and he should provide a significant upgrade to their deep passing game. At Baylor last season, Griffin completed 51 percent of passes that flew more than 20 yards in the air, with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

The Redskins also failed to control the middle of the field in the passing game. Washington quarterbacks ranked 27th in the NFL in Total QBR and 29th in completion percentage on throws inside the numbers last season.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

After a four-game win streak to end the season, the Philadelphia Eagles were poised to enter to 2012 among the favorites in the NFC.
But after Friday’s news that left tackle Jason Peters will miss half the season or more after rupturing his Achilles tendon, an Eagles rushing attack that could have had the Eagles atop the conference looks far less formidable.

Peters has been one of the primary reasons the Eagles have finished fifth in the league in rushing in each of the last two seasons. Over that span, no team has run the ball around left tackle more than Philadelphia and few have run it more efficiently.

Since 2010, the Eagles are second in the league in rushing yards (1,052), yards per rush (6.9) and rushing first downs on carries over left tackle. In 2008, the year before Peters joined Philadelphia, the Eagles averaged just 4.3 yards per carry on rushes off left tackle, the 25th-best rate in the league.


Peters earned his fifth career Pro Bowl selection in 2011 and joined Cleveland Browns tackle Joe Thomas on the first-team AP All-Pro team, Peters’ first career selection.

He’s been a Pro Bowler in each of his three seasons in Philadelphia and also in 2007 and 2008 with the Buffalo Bills before being traded to the Eagles for first-, fourth- and sixth-round picks in 2009.

As noted in the chart on the right, Peters is one of just four offensive players to reach the Pro Bowl in each of the last five seasons.

At the moment, the Eagles options to replace Peters appear limited. As Andy Reid noted in announcing Peters’ injury, Philadelphia recently agreed to a one-year deal with King Dunlap, who has started three games at left tackle over the last two seasons.

In addition to Peters, Dunlap and Todd Herremans, the presumed starter at right tackle prior to Friday, the only other offensive tackle on the roster is D.J. Jones, who has never played in an NFL game.

Andy Reid could be forced to draft an offensive tackle early in April’s draft, something he’s been reluctant to do since taking over the Eagles in 1999.

Since then, Philadelphia has drafted just two offensive tackles in the first three rounds (Shawn Andrews in 2004, Winston Justice in 2006). The Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans (both one) are the only teams to have drafted fewer offensive tackles in the first three rounds in that span.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, five teams are possibly interested in Peyton Manning’s services: New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Redskins and Miami Dolphins.

Among those teams, the Jets had the lowest Total QBR last season at 33.6, which ranked 28th in the NFL. Arizona and Seattle ranked 26th and 27th, respectively.

Using Next Level information, here are reasons why Manning would be an upgrade for each team.

Washington Redskins
Last season, Washington’s quarterbacks threw a league-high 20 interceptions inside the numbers, completing 58.0 percent of such attempts. From 2008-10, Manning completed 71.3 percent of his throws inside the numbers with a +23 touchdown-interception differential.

No quarterback has faced a higher percentage of drop backs against four or fewer rushers than Manning since 2008. Despite the high number of attempts (1,399), Manning has taken 90 fewer sacks against such pressure than Washington's quarterbacks over that time.

Further, the Redskins have struggled when spreading the field with three or more wide receivers, throwing one more interception than touchdowns. Manning’s 79.0 Total QBR in such sets is highest in the NFL since 2008 (minimum 200 action plays).

And, from 2008-10, the Indianapolis Colts scored in the red zone nearly 92 percent of the time, the highest percentage in the NFL. The Redskins have the third-worst score percentage in the red zone (81.4) during that span.

New York Jets
Mark Sanchez has struggled when defenses bring four or fewer pass rushers, throwing eight more interceptions than touchdowns (28TD, 36 INT). Manning has thrown 33 more touchdowns than interceptions (70-37) against such pressure since 2008.

Also since 2008, 49 quarterbacks have attempted at least 200 passes outside the field numbers. Sanchez has completed just over half of his attempts on such throws, ranking 45th. Manning completion percentage was just over 61 percent, eighth-best over that time.

Miami Dolphins
Since the start of 2008, Dolphins' quarterbacks have thrown 13 touchdowns (and 21 interceptions) out of the shotgun. Without playing in 2011, Manning has thrown 54 touchdowns from the shotgun since 2008.

The Dolphins also have struggled when spreading the field with three or more wide receivers, throwing three more interceptions than touchdowns. Manning’s 79.0 Total QBR in such sets is No. 1 in the NFL since 2008 (minimum 200 action plays).

Miami also hasn’t been strong recently in clutch situations. Since 2009 when the score is within three points, Miami’s quarterbacks have a -5 TD-INT differential, tied for the worst differential in the NFL with the Cleveland Browns and Jets.

Seattle Seahawks
This may be the team with the most need for Manning. According to QB Points Above Average (QB PAA), Seattle has had a negative-128.8 net point contribution from its quarterbacks since 2008. Only the St. Louis Rams and Browns have gotten poorer play during that time. (A QB’s points above average represents the number of points the QB contributed to his team above what an average QB would in the same number of plays.)

Seattle has had four quarterbacks contribute at least 200 action plays since 2008. Of those four, none has a QBR at 50 or better. Manning's Total QBR over that span is best in the NFL (77.2).

Arizona Cardinals
This is the one offense that most resembles the Colts. From 2008-10, Arizona and Indianapolis ranked first and second, respectively, in plays with three or more wide receivers. The Colts ran 2,051 such sets and Arizona rank 1,772.

Super Bowl XLVI between the New York Giants and New England Patriots featured several key moments on which the outcome of the game could have swung significantly.

The ESPN Analytics Team looked at a few of those moments and analyzed them based on our historic win probability data from the past 10 seasons. Here’s what we found.

How much should the Patriots rue their missed opportunities?
The Patriots just missed converting two plays that would have made a significant difference in the outcome of the game.

A couple plays after Tom Brady threw an interception for the game’s only turnover early in the fourth quarter, Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled with the Giants deep in their own territory.

Fortunately for Bradshaw and the Giants, Chris Snee recovered the ball at the 11, keeping possession of the ball.

Had the Patriots recovered the fumble, their win probability would have jumped to from 69 percent to 78 percent. So the inability to recover Bradshaw’s fumble cost the Patriots nearly 10% in terms of win probability.

Similarly, with the Patriots facing a 2nd-and-11 from the Giants 44, leading 17-15 with 4:06 left in the fourth quarter, Wes Welker dropped a pass from Tom Brady at the Giants 21.

Suppose he made the catch and gained six more yards after the catch (he had some space around him and would probably have been able to pick up a few yards). In that case, the Patriots would have had a 1st-and-10 from the Giants 15, and their win probability would have increased from 73 percent to 84 percent.

Should the Patriots have let the Giants score?
With the Giants having the ball inside the Patriots 10 with just over a minute to go, the Patriots had a decision to make: let the Giants score right away and leave as much time as possible for their offense, or play defense and hope for a turnover or missed field goal.

The math shows that the Patriots were in a deep hole either way.

If they held the Giants out of the end zone and made them attempt a last-second field goal, it would have had a very high likelihood of success.

This season, NFL kickers were 37-for-38 (97.4 percent) on game-tying or go-ahead field attempts from inside of 26 yards (the longest field goal attempt the Giants likely would have ended up with) with under a minute and a half left in the 4th quarter.

On the other hand, the Patriots’ win probability after Bradshaw’s touchdown with 57 seconds remaining was only 3.4 percent.

This is confirmed by historical analysis of similar situations.

The Patriots took over on their own 20, needing a touchdown to win the game and 57 seconds to go 80 yards.

Since 2001, NFL teams beginning a drive between their own 10 and own 30 when trailing by four to eight points (in other words, needing the touchdown) with between 40 seconds and 1:15 left in the fourth quarter have scored a touchdown just twice on 63 such drives, a 3.2 percent success rate.

So essentially the Patriots were choosing between a 2.6 percent chance of winning via a missed field goal (maybe a bit higher if you account for the very small likelihood of a fumbled snap or something like that) and a little bit better than a three percent chance of winning with a game-winning touchdown drive after letting the Giants score.

Either way, the decision had a very small impact on the overall outcome – the Patriots had essentially lost the game on the preceding plays of the Giants’ final drive.

What were the biggest plays of the game?
Here are the biggest plays of the game in terms of changes in win probability from before to after the play.

1. Ahmad Bradshaw’s rushing touchdown in the final minute raised the Giants' win probability from 74 percent to 97 percent.

2. Tom Brady’s touchdown pass to Danny Woodhead in the final seconds of the second quarter raised the Patriots' win probability from 42 percent to 56 percent.

3. Eli Manning’s 38-yd pass to Mario Manningham with just under four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter raised the Giants’ win probability from 37 percent to 49 percent.

The New York Giants are Super Bowl champions again, winning Super Bowl XLVI against the New England Patriots by the same margin and in a similar thrilling fashion as their regular-season victory.

Once again, quarterback Eli Manning was the king of the fourth-quarter comeback, something he’s done multiple times in his career against the Patriots.

Here’s a deeper look at the notes, stats, and trends behind this game.

Why the Giants won
Manning joined a list of players to win multiple Super Bowl MVPs, along with Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, and Tom Brady. Manning’s fourth-quarter performance was a near-duplicate of his previous Super Bowl effort, as the chart on the right shows.

Via Elias, Manning set a Super Bowl record for the most consecutive completions by a quarterback to start a game, with nine. The previous mark was held by Phil Simms for the Giants against the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXI.

Manning was precise on his short passes, completing 28-of-32 throws that traveled fewer than 15 yards in the air. His 88 percent completion rate on those throws considerably exceeded his season rate of 67 percent entering the game.

Manning’s 75 percent completion rate overall was the second-best ever in a postseason game for a quarterback who threw at least 40 passes. The only one better was Drew Brees, earlier this postseason against the Detroit Lions.

It was Manning’s eighth game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime this season, most in the NFL, two more than Tim Tebow and Alex Smith. His five career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and overtime of postseason are tied with Joe Montana for third-most all-time, behind Tom Brady (7) and John Elway (6).

Why the Patriots lost
Brady had a good game statistically, setting the record for consecutive Super Bowl completions with 16, and combining with Manning for a 70.4 percent completion rate (fourth-best by quarterbacks in Super Bowl history). But he could not quite match Manning’s performance.

Brady was 0-for-5 when throwing the ball at least 20 yards in the air downfield, including both the intentional grounding that gave the Giants a safety and the game’s first score, and the incomplete Hail Mary attempt into the end zone on the game’s final play.

The last time Brady failed to complete a pass of that length with at least five attempts was in Super Bowl XLII (0-for-8).

Rob Gronkowski, one of Brady's favorite targets, was on the field for 45 of the Patriots' 62 plays (73 percent), his lowest percentage of plays on the season. Gronkowski was held to three catches and 26 yards and was the intended receiver on Brady’s interception.

Pivotal Plays
Giants: Manning completed only 2-of-8 throws of 15 yards or longer, but one of the two completions was huge -- the 38-yard catch at midfield by Mario Manningham on the Giants game-winning drive.

Patriots: Wide receiver Wes Welker had a crucial drop on 2nd-and-11 with 4:06 remaining in the game on a pass thrown 23 air yards down the field that would have given New England possession in the red zone.

Welker was credited with five drops in the first 18 games of the season, none on a throw more than 10 air yards downfield. His rate of passes dropped was seventh-best in the NFL this season, among those targeted at least 100 times.

Under the Radar
Theme of the postseason: The Giants picked up 100 yards after contact on offense in Super Bowl XLVI, something they did in three of their four playoff wins. In the regular season, the Giants picked up 100 yards after contact just twice (Week 3 vs Eagles and Week 16 vs Jets).

Unsung hero: The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Giants punter Steve Weatherford is the first punter in Super Bowl history to pin an opponent inside the 10 three times in one game.

Stat of the Game
The Giants are first team to win a Super Bowl with fewer than 10 regular-season wins since NFL went to 16-game schedule in 1978 (excluding strike-shortened seasons).

The Giants are the second team to win both a regular season game and a Super Bowl against the same opponent by the same margin. The Giants beat the Patriots twice by four points, matching the 1994 San Francisco 49ers, who beat the Chargers by 23 points in both the regular season and Super Bowl XXIX.

For the second time in five seasons, the New York Giants completed an epic Super Bowl run with a come-from-behind victory in the final minute over the New England Patriots.

It was a game reminiscent of the one that took place in Super Bowl XLII. Let's take a quick look at the notes and nuggets from this historic victory.

• This was the Giants eighth NFL championship and fourth Super Bowl win. The Giants are the fifth team to win at least four Super Bowl titles.

• The Giants are the first team to win a Super Bowl with fewer than 10 regular-season wins since NFL went to 16-game schedule in 1978 (excluding strike-shortened seasons).

• The Giants are now 3-2 vs the New England Patriots since 2001, Tom Brady’s first year as starter. The only other team with a winning record against New England during that span is Denver (6-4).

• The Giants have won seven straight postseason road/neutral site games. That is the longest streak in NFL history.

• The Giants finished the regular season minus-6 in point differential, becoming the only Super Bowl team with a negative point differential during the regular season.

• The Giants beat four teams this postseason that combined to win 51 regular-season games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that matches the most combined wins of defeated opponents by a Super Bowl champion.

• Tom Coughlin is 65 years and 158 days old, making him the oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl, surpassing Dick Vermeil (age 63). He now has nine road/neutral-site postseason wins, matching Tom Landry’s postseason record. Coughlin is 9-4. Landry was 9-10.

• Eli Manning became the 11th starting quarterback to win multiple Super Bowl titles and the eighth to win his first two Super Bowl starts.

• The Patriots are now tied for the most Super Bowl losses all-time. Their four defeats match the Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, and Minnesota Vikings.

• Since the start of 2006 season, the Patriots are 22-4 vs the NFC, including the postseason. Of the four losses, three came against the Giants. The other was to the New Orleans Saints during the 2009 season.

Kickoff is nearly at hand for Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. The New York Giants and New England Patriots will meet in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII and a Week 9 game this season, both wins by the Giants.

This game has been analyzed and discussed non-stop for two weeks, but here are 10 things you might not have heard:

• Let’s start with the coin toss. The past 29 times the Patriots have won the pregame coin toss they have elected to defer the choice until the second half. The last (and only) time they chose to receive since that option was started in 2006, was Week 1 of the 2008 season against the Kansas City Chiefs – the day Tom Brady’s season ended with an injury.

• On the other hand, from Week 1 in 2008 to Dec. 4, 2011, the Giants chose to receive on every opening coin toss they won, a streak of 30 regular-season and playoff games where they chose to receive. But then in Week 17 this season against the Dallas Cowboys, with their season on the line, they chose to defer.

• This marks the fourth time the Giants have met a team in the Super Bowl that they had defeated in the same regular season. They are 3-0 in those past rematches.

• Since 2006 the Patriots have played 25 games against NFC opponents, including postseason. They are 21-1 against NFC teams OTHER than Giants, but 1-2 against the Giants. The only other NFC team to beat the Patriots in that time is the New Orleans Saints in 2009.

• At 65, Tom Coughlin could become the oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl. Bill Belichick, 59, would be the fourth-oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl.

• Seven different head coaches have won the last seven Super Bowls: Belichick, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Coughlin, Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy. It’s the first time that seven different head coaches have won seven successive Super Bowls. But that streak will end tonight.

• Tonight’s game will mark the first Super Bowl matching two starting quarterbacks who were both former Super Bowl MVPs. Tom Brady won it twice, while Eli Manning won it against the Patriots four years ago.

• Manning and Brady will be the third set of starting quarterbacks to meet in multiple Super Bowls. In the previous repeats (Troy Aikman vs. Jim Kelly, Terry Bradshaw vs. Roger Staubach), the QB who won the first game also won the second.

• Tom Brady has thrown only one interception in 156 career passes in the Super Bowl. He was picked off by Panthers cornerback Reggie Howard in Super Bowl XXXVIII. That gives Brady the second-lowest career interception rate among the 15 QBs with at least 50 Super Bowl passes, behind Joe Montana, who was never intercepted in 122 pass attempts.

• The Giants have gained a first down on six of 12 plays on third down with 10+ yards to go during this postseason. The league average in that category this season was 19.7 percent, just about the rate at which the Giants converted during the regular season (19.6).

Earlier this week, New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul claimed that Tom Brady reacted to “pressure that didn’t exist” when the Giants beat the New England Patriots back in Week 9. Brady will have to deal with real pressure Sunday in Super Bowl XLVI.

Although most teams rotate three pass rushers between two positions in passing situations, Brady will see situations when he faces all three of New York’s dangerous trio of defensive ends on the same play. Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora had played only one game together before meeting the Patriots in Week 9.

As they have spent more time on the field together, they have become a more dangerous puzzle for opposing quarterbacks to solve. Here is a look at what this group can do:

The Giants rely on their front four to get after opposing quarterbacks. They sent four or fewer pass rushers on 69.1 percent of designed pass plays through Week 16 but ramped that number up even more when Umenyiora returned from injury. From Umenyiora’s Week 17 return through the NFC Championship Game, the Giants sent four or fewer pass rushers on 82.1 percent of opponent dropbacks. No team had more sacks than the Giants (15) during that time. The three defensive ends were on the field together for 10 of those.

Pierre-Paul, Tuck and Umenyiora play together exclusively in small substitution packages (5 or more defensive backs). Small sub packages league-wide averaged a sack once every 15.6 dropbacks through conference championship weekend. The Giants are doing their part to bring that number down, sacking opponents once every 8.5 dropbacks when all three ends are on the field together (15 sacks in 128 designed pass plays).

This trio can also limit opposing quarterbacks when they have time to get off a throw. The chart to the right compares small sub packages with Pierre-Paul, Tuck and Umenyiora on the field to the league average.

The Giants cannot rely on phantom pressure to slow Brady on Sunday. If the Patriots find themselves in obvious passing situations early, look for the three defensive ends to create havoc in the New England backfield.

The ESPN Stats & Information crew has been providing Super Bowl-related notes, nuggets and information to our talent covering the game in Indianapolis this week. The volume of material can get overwhelming, so we wanted to boil the game down to what matters most.

We asked our analysts what they think are the most important statistics in this Super Bowl.

Merril Hoge: First-Down Performance
Hoge felt that the game would be decided by which team performs better on first down.

The New England Patriots ranked fourth during the regular season, averaging 6.4 yards on first downs. This was due largely to their success at throwing. New England led the NFL with 2,380 first-down pass yards and ranked third with 8.9 yards per pass attempt.

The New York Giants' defense held Tom Brady in check on first down in their Week 9 meeting, limiting him to 12-for-21 passing.

The Giants have been very good at holding opponents on first down during the postseason. Aaron Rodgers was 10-for-20 on first down, sacked twice, and held to just 4.1 yards-per attempt in the Giants' Divisional Round win at Green Bay.

The Giants offense has run the ball much more effectively on first down in the postseason (5.1 yards per carry compared to 3.6 during the regular season) and quarterback Eli Manning has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions on first down in the playoffs.

The Patriots defense was very susceptible on first down in the regular season, allowing nearly 7 yards per play, worst in the NFL. But in the postseason, New England's defense has been the best unit at defending first down, yielding just 4 yards per play.

Herm Edwards: Third-Down Conversions
He cited the ability of third-down conversions in reducing opponents' possessions. He referred back to Super Bowl XLII and the Giants' first drive of the game, which spanned 16 plays and almost 10 minutes.

The Patriots' offense converted at a 46 percent rate on third down during the regular season, tied for fourth-best in the NFL, considerably better than the Giants' 37 percent rate.

However, Eli Manning averaged the most yards per passing attempt on third down (10.2) during the regular season and had 13 pass plays of at least 30 yards on third down. No one else had more than nine.

Lastly, the New York's defense is one that has previously stopped the Patriots on third down. The Giants held the Patriots to 5-for-15 on third down in Week 9.

Other analysts weigh in

Tedy Bruschi said "rushing yards" was the key stat, and in New England’s case a healthy Rob Gronkowski would be a boost to the Patriots' run blocking. On New York’s side, Bruschi said a solid ground game is "who the Giants are" and that it controls the clock.

Trent Dilfer cited "goal-to-go TD scoring," especially third-and-goal. Dilfer said the execution by either team -- whether it’s offense or defense -- in that situation will be as important as any in the game.

Cris Carter had two notions: Manning’s fourth-quarter numbers, and the number of times Gronkowski is targeted.

Mark Simon and Vince Masi contributed to this post.

(The NFC has won the coin flip at 14 straight Super Bowls. The chances of that happening are .006 percent. The last AFC team to win the coin flip was the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI.)

It’s important to note that in 2008, the NFL adopted the college-style rule of giving the coin toss winner the option to defer the ball to the second half. Before that, teams that won the toss chose to receive more than 95 percent of the time.

Including playoff games, the New England Patriots have chosen to defer the last 29 times that they have won the opening coin toss. The last (and only) time New England chose to receive the opening kick since the rule change was Week 1 in 2008 against the Kansas City Chiefs -- the game Tom Brady tore up his knee and missed the rest of the season. (Brady’s injury occurred on the Patriots’ second possession, not their first.)

So does New England head coach Bill Belichick now think choosing to receive the opening kickoff is bad? Belichick told the Boston Globe that he and his staff discuss the option before every game. "If we win the toss, if we lose the toss, what the wind is going to be, whatever the conditions are," he said. "We talk about it before every game."

However, since Brady’s injury, the Patriots have won tosses with game-time temperatures as high as 90 (the very next game against the New York Jets) and as low as 20 (Jan. 10, 2010 AFC Wild Card game against the Baltimore Ravens), However, since Brady’s injury, the Patriots have won tosses with game-time temperatures as high as 90 (the very next game against the New York Jets) and as low as 20 (Jan. 10, 2010 AFC Wild Card game against the Baltimore Ravens), so it's doubtful that's a factor as he implies.

In an even more interesting turn, from Week 1 of 2008 to Week 13 of 2011 the New York Giants chose to receive on every opening coin toss they won. That’s 30 straight regular-season and playoff games in which they chose to receive. Then, for some reason in Week 17 this season against the Dallas Cowboys -- with their season on the line -- the Giants chose to defer.

Against the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Wild Card, the Giants went back to their old ways and chose to receive, only to defer again in the NFC Championship game. (They did not win coin toss in the divisional round at Green Bay.) So Tom Coughlin’s team went 30 straight coin tosses choosing to receive, followed by deferring two of its last three games.

The Giants will call the opening toss, and Zak DeOssie will call tails, according to reports. If it lands heads, then you know what the Patriots will do. If the Giants win the toss, then who knows?

A cursory glance at the New England Patriots defense paints the unit as everything from mediocre to historically bad. It gave up 411.1 yards per game in the regular season, the highest total of any Super Bowl participant in history.

New England ranked 31st in the NFL in both passing yards and total yards allowed, and also gave up a league-high 22 touchdown passes in the red zone this season.

However, the Patriots’ defense has been a different unit this postseason, allowing only 325.0 yards per game and improving in a number of statistical categories (see chart).

Some of it can be attributed to opposition, but the impact of personnel continuity can’t be overstated. For much of the season, the Patriots defense was without linebacker Brandon Spikes and safety Patrick Chung.

Spikes missed eight games with ankle and knee injuries. Chung also missed eight games with thumb and foot injuries. Both players were injured in New England’s Week 9 loss to the New York Giants, and missed significant portions of the second half of the season.

Each player brings significant boosts to different parts of the defense. Spikes’ reputation is as a run-stuffing linebacker, and the Patriots have allowed a touchdown once every 51 rushes with Spikes on the field (once every 26.7 rushes with him off the field).

Spikes’ versatility has been on display in the postseason. In the divisional round against the Denver Broncos, Spikes registered a sack, tackle for loss, and pass defensed. A week later, Spikes made a one-handed interception of a Joe Flacco pass over the middle in New England’s 23-20 win over the Ravens.

Chung has also provided some much-needed stability in the secondary.

The Patriots have had 13 different players play at least 100 snaps as a defensive back this season, the most of any team in the league. Comparatively, the Giants are tied for fewest with six. Chung has played in both playoff games, providing a major boost to the Patriots’ pass defense.

One additional player who has stepped up is defensive end Mark Anderson. When Andre Carter went down in Week 15 against Denver, the pass-rushing specialist Anderson took over full-time and been productive. Anderson has four sacks and three tackles for loss since Week 15, which ranks third among all defenders in that time frame (including playoffs).

One of the key storylines leading up to the Super Bowl XLVI is the availability of New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. He was without a walking boot on media day, but it has yet to be seen if he will be 100 percent against the New York Giants on Sunday.

If he isn’t, the Patriots offense might take on a new look.

The Patriots used two or more tight ends on 81 percent of their regular-season plays and have done so on 88 percent of their postseason plays (excluding spikes and kneel-downs). No other team has featured multiple tight ends on a higher percent of plays, and the Patriots don’t have a third tight end on their roster.

If Gronkowski is limited or doesn’t play, that would likely lead to more three-wide receiver sets. Outside of Wes Welker and Deion Branch, the Patriots haven’t had a consistent threat from a third wide receiver this season.

Tom Brady has thrown only 140 of his 681 passes this season with three wide receivers and just one tight end on the field. Although Brady is completing 71 percent of his passes with such personnel on field, he is also throwing an interception about once every 28 attempts, compared to once every 68 attempts with all other personnel groupings.

Less or no Gronkowski could also limit the versatility of Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski has taken 61 percent of his snaps attached to the line of scrimmage. In contrast, Hernandez has taken 66 percent of his snaps and caught 52 of his 90 receptions when split out wide or in the slot. The Patriots may keep Hernandez in more often to compensate, which could lead to fewer mismatches.

If Gronkowski is able to play he may not be at 100 percent, which could limit his performance in areas he normally excels.

Gronkowski finished the regular season with the fourth-most yards after the catch (641), most among tight ends. The only tight end to average more yards after the catch per reception was Brent Celek (7.9 to 7.1).

Of course, the Patriots could opt to base Gronkowski’s playing time on the situation. Only Calvin Johnson has more red zone touchdowns than "Gronk" the past two seasons, and no Patriots receiver has been nearly as effective in the end zone.

You can bet New York Giants fans around the country will bring plenty of chips to Super Bowl parties this year, but don’t be surprised if they are counting on someone else to provide some salsa.

The sparkplug of one of the NFL’s most talented wide receiving corps, Victor Cruz, has had New York fans shaking their hips with every touchdown this season.

Cruz finished the regular season as the Giants’ single-season record holder with 1,536 receiving yards and led the team with nine touchdown receptions, followed by a celebration salsa dance. As we take a closer look at his sophomore success, it's easy to see why he could be bringing his moves to Super Bowl XLVI.

Among tight ends and wide receivers, Cruz finished with the third-most yards after the catch during the regular season, trailing only Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, who will both suit up for the New England Patriots next Sunday.

Cruz’s moves aren’t only useful on the dance floor, but he’s also hard to tackle. Cruz averaged 2.99 yards after contact per reception this year, the best in the NFL among wide receivers with at least 50 receptions.

The X factor to Super Bowl XLVI might not be who matches up with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham near the edge, but how the Patriots choose to cover Cruz in the slot.

No defense allowed more touchdowns with at least three wide receivers on the field than the Patriots during the regular season and playoffs combined. Meanwhile, no team has run more plays, completed more passes and thrown more touchdowns with at least three wide receivers on the field than the Giants this postseason.

The Patriots could call on wide receiver Julian Edelman to again pull double duty as the nickel cover man on Super Sunday. Cruz caught 76.8 percent of his receptions in the regular and postseason after lining up in the slot before the snap while Edelman has filled in as the slot cornerback on 80.3 percent of his defensive plays.

Look for Cruz to take Edelman to the outside where the Giants wideout is king. No qualified player in the NFL averaged more yards per reception on passes thrown outside the painted field numbers this regular and postseason.

Seven of Cruz’s nine touchdowns this season have come on sideline passes, celebrated with extra Latin flavor to honor the dancing lessons given to him as a young man by his grandmother.

While Giants’ fans will not get to vote for Cruz on “Dancing with the Stars” after he recently turned down an invitation for the show, they will certainly hope to see him dancing on the field in Indy during Super Bowl XLVI.

For all the hype about Tom Brady and Eli Manning leading potent offenses into Super Bowl XLVI next Sunday, their Week 9 matchup was a 10-3 advantage for the New York Giants entering the fourth quarter as Brady had pushed the New England Patriots into the red zone. The stage was set for a whirlwind 31-point finish that highlighted season-long trends for both teams.

What helped the Giants win, 24-20, ending New England’s 20-game regular-season home winning streak? And what can both teams take away from the game?

What Happened:
• On the second play of the fourth quarter, Brady hit Aaron Hernandez on a five-yard TD pass. No team targets tight ends like the Patriots, particularly in the red zone. Only the Detroit Lions’ tight ends had as many targets (37) as the Patriots had catches (36) in the red zone, and Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski accounted for 22 red zone touchdowns, twice as many as any other TE tandem.

• After a Giants punt and a Patriots field goal, New York let the Patriots defense do the work on its next drive. On first down at his 25, Manning took a shot down the sideline and cornerback Kyle Arrington was flagged for interference. This season, New England was called for five interference penalties of at least 20 yards, tied for most in the league. That set up a 10-yard TD pass to Mario Manningham out of a three wide receiver set. The Giants were without Hakeem Nicks that day, a big void for one of the most productive three-plus WR offenses.

• The Patriots drove 64 yards and retook the lead on a pass to Gronkowski, and Manning got the ball back on his 20 with 1:36 to go. Nine plays later (including another deep interference penalty), Manning hit Jake Ballard in the end zone. The drive took 1:21. Quick strikes were a Giants hallmark. They had 17 touchdown drives this season that took less than two minutes.

What to take away:
• Both quarterbacks are effective against the blitz. In Week 9, both of Manning’s touchdowns came against at least six rushers. This season, defenses sent extra pressure at Manning more often than any other quarterback, and he excelled. His 18 touchdowns against five or more rushers led the league. As for Brady, no quarterback posted a better TD-Int differential than his +15 against extra rushers. Pressuring them is important, but both offensive lines ranked in the top eight in sack percentage.

• While the Giants will have to figure out a way to defend Hernandez and Gronkowski, who were held scoreless in only four games, the Patriots’ challenge will be in dealing with Nicks, Manningham and Victor Cruz. They have combined for 4,134 receiving yards, including in the playoffs, tops in the NFL. The Giants are at their best with three wide receivers, and the Patriots struggled with extra defensive backs on the field.

• Manning under or overthrew on nine throws, his second-highest total this season. Missing as many a second time around is unlikely, particularly with Nicks back in the lineup. Getting Nicks back will help Manning improve on his 7-of-20 performance in Week 9 with three or more WR on the field. Even in victory, there were plenty of opportunities left on the field for the Giants.