Stats & Info: NFL

Little payoff from unbalanced draft classes

May, 12, 2012
May 12
5:23
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Chris Chambers/Getty Images
Andrew Luck was the first of eight offensive players drafted by the Colts.
It generally takes a few years to properly judge an NFL draft class since picks need time to develop. There are some though who hope their team’s draft provides a quick fix to a position or to an entire unit.

Unfortunately, that’s rarely the case.

Five teams used at least 75 percent of their draft picks on one side of the ball in this year’s draft. The New England Patriots (six of seven), Seattle Seahawks (eight of 10), Detroit Lions (six of eight) and Green Bay Packers (six of eight) went heavy on defense. The Indianapolis Colts (eight of 10) loaded up on offense.

Examining draft classes back to 2002, the first season there was 32 teams, there have been 18 instances of a team using 75 percent or more of its draft picks of offense and 15 instances of a team using 75 percent or more of its picks on defense.

When teams have gone mostly offense, their scoring has usually decreased the following year.


Twelve of the 18 teams that went this path saw their scoring decrease the following season by an average of nearly three points per game.

If anything, focusing on the offensive side of the ball in a draft harmed a team's defensive unit the following season. 13 of the 18 teams to take offensive players with at least three quarters of their picks allowed more points the following season. These teams allowed approximately three more points per game.

When teams have gone mostly defense, the results have been less one-sided.

Seven of the 15 teams that went this route allowed fewer points the following season. These teams allowed just over five points per game fewer on average.


Seven of the 15 teams allowed more points the following season, with those seven averaging approximately four points more per game. The 2009 Atlanta Falcons, who used seven of their eight picks on defense, allowed the same amount of points in 2008 that they did in 2009.

The other side of the ball wasn’t affected as much by this strategy. Eight teams scored more after going heavy on defense while seven scored less.
Tags:

NFL, NFL Draft

Impact of Peterson's injury on power, speed

May, 9, 2012
May 9
5:26
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Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty ImagesAdrian Peterson continues to rehab from a knee injury he suffered in Week 16 against the Redskins.
The Minnesota stadium debate isn’t the only issue Vikings fans are monitoring closely this offseason.

Adrian Peterson is working to come back from a gruesome knee injury suffered late last season. Peterson worked out in front of the media on Wednesday, 137 days after tearing multiple ligaments in his left knee.

Peterson is the face of the Vikings franchise, and one of the most productive tailbacks in league history through his first five seasons.

Since his rookie year in 2007, Peterson leads the NFL with 6,752 rushing yards and 64 rushing touchdowns. He has joined LaDainian Tomlinson and Pro Football Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith and Eric Dickerson as the only players to ever amass 6,000 rushing yards and 60 rushing TD in their first five seasons.

Even if Peterson is able to return to the field early in 2012, there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to run with the same strength and speed as in the past.

Running behind a porous offensive line in 2011, Peterson did some of his best work after getting hit, averaging 2.5 yards per rush after contact. Among the 31 running backs who carried the ball at least 150 times last season, only Ben Tate (2.9) averaged more yards per carry after contact than Peterson.

Peterson may not have the same type of wheels as when he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.40 seconds at the 2007 NFL Scouting Combine. Still, he has the speed to break the long run. Over the last three seasons, only Chris Johnson (34) and Michael Turner (21) have more rushes of at least 25 yards than Peterson’s 20.

His knee injury stands as an early-season obstacle, Peterson stands to benefit as much as anyone from Minnesota’s selection of USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil with the fourth overall pick in last month’s draft. While Kalil’s pass protection is considered to be ahead of his run blocking, he’s sure to be an upgrade over the incumbent starter at left tackle, Charlie Johnson.

With Johnson starting all 16 games at left tackle in 2011, Peterson averaged just 3.8 yards per rush on his 30 carries around left tackle. Of the 27 players who rushed around left tackle at least 20 times last season, only three registered fewer yards per carry than Peterson.

In 2010, when Bryant McKinnie anchored the left side of the Vikings line, Peterson averaged 6.6 yards per rush on carries around left tackle, fifth most among NFL tailbacks.

Josh Hamilton and other sports rarities

May, 9, 2012
May 9
3:58
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According to the Elias Sports Bureau, there have been 200,519 regular-season games in the history if Major League Baseball.

After Josh Hamilton's performance on Tuesday, there now have been 16 games in major-league history in which a single player hit four home runs. The chance of seeing a game in which there were four home runs hit by one player is one in 12,532.

Courtesy of Elias, here are some other regular-season, single-game accomplishments by an individual from other major professional leagues that have similar frequencies of occurrence. (You will notice the number four shows up quite a bit.)

NBA
There have been roughly 51,500 games in NBA history. Only four times has a player made 30 field goals or more in a single game. The chance of seeing a game in which one player makes 30 field goals is roughly one in 12,900. The last player to do it was the Golden State Warriors’ Rick Barry on March 26, 1974 against the Portland Trail Blazers.

NHL
There have been roughly 48,000 games in NHL history, or 145,500 periods (not counting overtimes). Only 11 times has a player scored four goals in a single regulation period. So, the chance of seeing a period in which a player scores four goals is roughly 1 in 13,200. The last player to do it was Mario Lemieux on Jan. 26, 1997, against the Montreal Canadiens.

NFL
There have been roughly 13,500 games in NFL history, and only once has a player scored 40 points in a game: Ernie Nevers (Nov. 28, 1929) for the Chicago Cardinals against the Chicago Bears. He scored six touchdowns and kicked four extra points.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, there have been 7,836 matches, or 15,672 halves of action. Only once has a player scored five goals in a single half, Jermain Defoe on Nov. 22, 2009 for Tottenham against Wigan.

Last week, the Baltimore Ravens drafted Alabama's Courtney Upshaw, hoping to line him up opposite Terrell Suggs as well as fill the void left by Jarret Johnson, who signed with the San Diego Chargers.

Terrell Suggs
Suggs
If Upshaw starts, it's uncertain who will be his defensive counterpart now that Suggs is expected to miss the 2012 season with a torn Achilles tendon.

Suggs was the 2011 AP Defensive player of the year. He led the AFC with 14.0 sacks, a league-high seven forced fumbles and six passes defensed.

He's the only player over the last two seasons with at least five sacks, five forced fumbles and five passes defensed.

Suggs' 82.5 sacks are the most in franchise history, eighth among active players, and only six players have more sacks since Suggs' rookie season in 2003.

In 2010-11 combined, Suggs was fifth in the NFL with 18 tackles for loss, and in the last two postseasons, his five sacks were the most in the league.

Last season, the Ravens sent four or fewer pass rushers 63.6 percent of the time, which ranked 23rd in the NFL. Still, Suggs recorded 12 of his 14 sacks in that defensive formation, which was tied fourth in the NFL.

Suggs, who will turn 30 in October, has been durable throughout his nine-year career. He's played in 141 of a possible 144 regular-season games and has started all 16 regular-season games in four of the last five seasons.

In 2011, Suggs played in 95 percent of the Ravens' defensive snaps. Among Ravens who started all 16 games last season, only Ed Reed played in a higher percentage of snaps (99.6).

How suspensions impact Saints defense

May, 2, 2012
May 2
2:53
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Two of the four players suspended from the Saints bounty program, Scott Fujita and Anthony Hargrove, are no longer on the team.

However, the Saints are losing their longest tenured player, Will Smith, for four games and starting inside linebacker, Jonathan Vilma, for the entire 2012 season.

Smith and Vilma were two of five Saints defenders to play at least 80 percent of defensive snaps in the games they played last season (see chart).

Smith is fourth in team history with 61.5 sacks, but is coming off a career-low 35 tackles last season. Smith also has only two sacks over the last two seasons with a standard four-man pass rush, but he thrived when the Saints sent added pressure.

The Saints defense sent five or more pass rushers on more than half of dropbacks in 2010 and 2011, leading the league both seasons -- and Vilma and Smith were big parts of the Saints' blitz packages:

• Smith led the Saints and was tied for fourth in the NFL with 10 sacks the last two seasons when the Saints sent at least five pass rushers.

• Smith also led all Saints linemen since 2010 with seven passes defensed/intercepted.

• Smith's nine tackles for losses are tops among Saints defensive linemen and tied for second-highest on the team with Vilma.

Vilma led Saints in tackles from 2008-10, and in 2011 was tied for second in the NFL with three opponent fumble recoveries.

According to Accuscore, the Saints playoff chances dropped 5.2 percent, which is not significant because a team's chances to go to the playoffs fluctuate about 5 percent from week to week during the regular season.
The Washington Redskins mortgaged their future on QB Robert Griffin III, trading their 2012 first- and second-round picks and their first-round picks in 2013 and 2014 in order to draft the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner.


So it came as a surprise to many when the Redskins used their fourth-round pick on Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins.

From an historical standpoint, the Redskins are:

• First team since the 1989 Green Bay Packers to draft two quarterbacks in the first four rounds. In '89, Green Bay selected Anthony Dilweg in the third round then Jeff Graham in the fourth round. (They combined to make seven NFL starts, all by Dilweg.)

• First team since the 1971 Houston Oilers to use two of their first three draft picks on quarterbacks. In 1971, the Oilers took Dan Pastorini with the third overall pick, then selected Lynn Dickey in the third round. (Both went on to start more than 100 games during their careers.)

John Beck
Beck
Cousins was not the only QB transaction made by the Redskins on Wednesday. They also released John Beck, who started three games last season. Combined with Rex Grossman the pair committed 30 turnovers, which was tied with Tampa Bay last season for the most turnovers committed by a team’s quarterbacks.

For what it's worth, the only team to select three quarterbacks in the same draft in the Common Draft Era is the Oakland Raiders, who took Dave Humm (5th), Harry Knight (9th) and Tom Doyle (14th) in 1975.

Draft Wrap-up
• More than 55 percent of the drafted players (142 of 253) came from four conferences: SEC (42 players), Big Ten (41), ACC (31), Pac-12 (28). It’s the sixth straight year that the SEC had the most selections. Almost 20 percent of the players drafted (50 of 253) were defensive backs.

• Alabama had the most players drafted with eight, followed by Oklahoma and Georgia with seven.

• Some schools that did not have any players drafted: UCLA, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Minnesota, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech, Washington State.

• The Browns made the most picks (11) and the Saints made the fewest (5).

• The Minnesota Vikings selected wide receivers Greg Childs and Jarius Wright from Arkansas. Minnesota is the first team to draft two wide receivers from the same school in the same draft since the 2007 Indianapolis Colts took Anthony Gonzalez and Roy Hall from Ohio State.

• After allowing an NFL-worst 411.6 yards per game in 2011, the Packers drafted defensive players with their first six picks. The Patriots, who finished 31st in yards allowed last season, also took six defensive players with their first six picks. Green Bay and New England became the first teams since the 2002 Titans and 2002 Colts to draft defensive players with their first six picks of a draft, and just the seventh and eighth teams to do so in the Common Draft Era (since 1967).

• The draft started with the Colts taking a quarterback and it ended with them taking a quarterback. Mr. Irrelevant is Northern Illinois' Chandler Harnish, the first time since 1997 that a QB was the last pick. (In '97, Mr. Irrelevant was Ron McAda from Army.)

• Speaking of quarterbacks, Case Keenum (155) and Kellen Moore (142) rank first and second, respectively, with the most touchdown passes in FBS history. Both, however, went undrafted. At Boise State, Moore went 50-3 (.943 win percentage), the best record by starting quarterback in the history of college football. (Moore signed with the Detriot Lions shortly after the draft.)

Colts look to add more than Luck to offense

April, 27, 2012
Apr 27
11:55
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Allen Kee / ESPNAfter selecting Andrew Luck first overall in the NFL draft, the Indianapolis Colts added a number of offensive weapons on the draft’s second day.
After taking Andrew Luck with the first pick overall on Thursday, the Indianapolis Colts continued to overhaul their offense on Friday.

The Colts became the seventh team in the common draft era to draft three pass catchers (wide receivers or tight ends) in the first three rounds. After adding Luck’s Stanford Cardinal tight end Coby Fleener in the second round, they picked tight end Dwayne Allen and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton in the third round.

The last team to select three pass catchers in the first three rounds was the New York Giants. They chose Hakeem Nicks, Ramses Barden and Travis Beckum in the 2009 draft.

Last season, Colts tight ends dropped nine passes, tied for second-most in the NFL. They are the first team to draft two tight ends in the first three rounds since the St. Louis Rams in 2006. Among NFL teams last year, the Colts ran the fourth-fewest plays in multiple-tight end sets.

By taking Luck and Fleener, they were the first team to draft a quarterback and tight end from the same school in a draft since the 2003 Houston Texans, who picked Drew Henson and Bennie Joppru from the Michigan Wolverines.

Luck threw multiple touchdown passes to his tight ends in nine of Stanford’s 13 games last season. No FBS quarterback attempted more passes or gained more yards when targeting tight ends. Fleener led all FBS tight ends with 10 touchdown receptions of at least 20 yards over the last two seasons.

Draft chatter
• The Denver Broncos selected defensive tackle Derek Wolfe with the 36th pick. Last year, the Broncos recorded only two sacks from players lining up on the interior of the defensive line, tied with the New Orleans Saints for the fewest among teams playing a 4-3 defense.

• The Rams selected North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins with the 39th pick. It was the highest that a Division II player has been picked since Ricardo Colclough of Tusculum went 38th overall in 2004.

• Bobby Wagner went 47th overall to the Seattle Seahawks, the first player from the Utah State Aggies to go in the first two rounds since Rulon Jones was a second-round pick in 1980.

• By taking safety Tavon Wilson in the second rounds, the New England Patriots drafted a defensive player with their first three picks. Last season, the Patriots had 12 players play at least 100 snaps at defensive back, most in the NFL.

• The Pittsburgh Steelers selected offensive tackle Mike Adams late in the second round. Pittsburgh used a league-high 25 different offensive line combinations last season.

• The San Francisco 49ers selected LaMichael James 61st overall. It’s the fourth straight season that the 49ers drafted a running back. Last season, San Francisco targeted running backs just 54 times, second-fewest in the NFL.

Class of 2012 QBs benefit from draft trend

April, 27, 2012
Apr 27
11:25
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Photo by Al Bello/Getty ImagesAndrew Luck (L) and Robert Griffin III hold up their jerseys after being chosen with the first two picks of the 2012 NFL Draft.
Nine straight Super Bowls have been won by franchise quarterbacks, which means the demand for an elite signal-caller has never been higher.

For proof of this, simply look at the top of the NFL Draft, where Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III continued a decade-long trend of quarterbacks being chosen earlier than ever.

A quarterback has been selected first overall 20 times in the 46 drafts during the common era (since 1967). But in the past 12 drafts, 10 quarterbacks have been chosen first.

The exponential rise has been particularly pronounced over the last 25 years. From 1988 to 1994, the first quarterback was chosen with the 15th pick on average. There wasn’t much difference in the next seven drafts, before the tide turned with the new millennium.

Quarterbacks were taken first overall in five of seven drafts from 2002 to 2008, for an average pick of 1.6. And Andrew Luck’s selection makes it four straight quarterbacks chosen first since 2009.

The mindset is emphasized by when the next quarterback has been picked over the last quarter-century. From 1988 to 2001, the second quarterback typically went in the second round. Over the last 11 years, the second quarterback has jumped into the top half of the first round.

Still not convinced? How about the third quarterback, which has leaped from an average slot in the third round to a late first-round selection over the last 25 years.

Because of this new emphasis on franchise field generals, three quarterbacks were taken with the first eight picks this year, for the third time in the common draft era. You’re welcome, Ryan Tannehill.

Paul Carr contributed to this post.

Crimson Tide rolls through first round

April, 26, 2012
Apr 26
11:36
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Jerry Lai/US PresswireTrent Richardson was the first of four Alabama Crimson Tide players selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.
The national champion Alabama Crimson Tide had three underclassmen selected in the first round -- Trent Richardson, Dre Kirkpatrick and Dont'a Hightower.

Last year, Marcell Dareus, Julio Jones and Mark Ingram were taken in the first round after leaving Alabama early, and in 2010, Rolando McClain and Kareem Jackson were selected in Round 1 after forgoing their final season of eligibility in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama joins the Miami Hurricanes (2002-04) as the only schools to have multiple underclassmen taken in the first round of the NFL Draft in three consecutive years.

The Crimson Tide are the first team to have eight underclassmen taken in the first round in a three-year span. Those Miami teams had seven -- two in 2002, two in 2003 and three in 2004.

Alabama is on a four-year run that began with Andre Smith being a first-round pick as an underclassman in 2009. That started after the Crimson Tide didn't have a first-round pick from 2001-2008 and failed to have a single player selected in any of the seven rounds of the 2008 Draft.

With Hightower and Mark Barron chosen in the first seven picks, the Crimson Tide became the second team in the Common Draft Era to have two or more players selected in the first 10 picks in consecutive drafts.

The Ohio State Buckeyes had two top-10 picks each in the 1996 and 1997 drafts, highlighted by Orlando Pace going first overall in 1997. Dareus and Jones went in the first 10 picks from Alabama last season.

Other than Alabama, the only school to have multiple first-round selections in each of the last two drafts was the Baylor Bears. Phil Taylor and Danny Watkins went in the first round from the Bears last season. The four picks over the last two years brings Baylor’s total to 10 first-round picks all-time.

Baylor is also one of two schools this year and five all-time to have a quarterback and wide receiver selected in the first round of the same draft.

Draft chatter
• No players from Miami, Florida or Florida State were selected in the first round for the first time since 1980.

• Nineteen early entrants were selected in the first round, surpassing the 2010 draft’s 17 for the most in NFL history.

• Riley Reiff of the Iowa Hawkeyes was the first pick from a Big Ten school, going 23rd overall to the Detroit Lions. That ties 1968 for the common draft era record for the longest into a draft before a Big Ten pick, when the Baltimore Colts selected John Williams of Minnesota Golden Gophers.

• Michael Floyd and Harrison Smith were each selected in the first round from Notre Dame. The last time the Fighting Irish had multiple first round picks was 1994 (Bryant Young, Aaron Taylor and Jeff Burris).

• Whitney Mercilus and A.J. Jenkins were the first pair of Illinois Fighting Illini players selected in the first round since Kevin Hardy and Simeon Rice went in the top three picks in 1996.

• The Boise State Broncos are the first team not from a major conference to have two first-round picks since the Jackson State Tigers in 2000.

Brad Edwards contributed to this post

Why Andrew Luck is worthy of No. 1 pick

April, 26, 2012
Apr 26
9:38
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The first pick of the 2012 NFL Draft seems to be a coronation for Andrew Luck rather than the selection of a college quarterback.

Mel Kiper Jr. has called Luck the finest quarterback talent since John Elway. Todd McShay graded him higher than any other prospect he has rated. The Indianapolis Colts are so confident in his future that they chose to part ways with Peyton Manning. So what makes Luck so special?

During his stellar career at Stanford, Luck erased many of the records set by Elway and Jim Plunkett, both No. 1 overall draft choices, and his success began before the snap.

“The guy is running the game at the line of scrimmage,” said Cardinal coach David Shaw. “He's controlling the protections. He's controlling the running game.”

Not only did Luck call and change plays at the line, he did it exceedingly well. Stanford had the fewest negative plays (47) and 3-and-outs (14) in FBS last season. The Cardinal had eight games with three or fewer negative plays; no other FBS team had more than six of those games. Stanford also tied Baylor and Boise State for the most games (5) with no 3-and-outs. Overall the offense averaged 6.8 yards per play and 489.3 yards per game, both ranked in the top 10 nationally.

Assessing his options at the line, Luck made defenses pay. On play-action passes, he completed 72 percent of his throws with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two seasons. When teams sent extra pass rushers, Luck capitalized. He finished 2011 with 15 TDs and four interceptions against five or more rushers.

He excelled in crucial situations:

• In the red zone last season, he completed 75 percent of his passes with 27 touchdowns and no interceptions. No one in FBS had a higher TD-Int differential than Luck’s plus-45 over the past two years.

• In fourth quarters and overtime in 2011, Luck had the best completion percentage (81.6) of any quarterback with at least 20 attempts.

• When Stanford was trailing, his passer efficiency was second-highest in the nation over the past two seasons.

This success stemmed from a nearly incredible accuracy. Factoring in dropped passes and passes that were knocked away by defenders, Luck’s percentage of on-target throws in 2011 was 81.1 percent. He also kept defenses off balance with his ability to run, averaging 5.9 yards per scramble and scoring twice on runs of 50 or more yards against FBS opponents.

Those long runs showcased his underrated athleticism, as did his 40-yard dash time at the NFL Scouting Combine. His 4.59 was faster than Tim Tebow’s and a tenth of a second off the time registered by Cam Newton. Those two were the NFL’s top rushing quarterbacks in 2011.

Luck's poise and confidence were evident in the way he bounced back from mistakes. Luck threw 10 interceptions in 2011, but on Stanford's 10 drives that followed, Luck was 28-34 for 288 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers. The Cardinal scored a touchdown on seven of those 10 drives.

All of these stats add up to a single number: one, which is where the Colts will draft Andrew Luck tonight.

Tight ends changing offenses, draft strategy

April, 25, 2012
Apr 25
2:20
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Kevin Hoffman/US PresswireRob Gronkowski (left) and Jimmy Graham (right) are leading the new wave of the way tight ends play in the NFL. Both finished in the top 7 in receiving yards last season with over 1,300 yards.
The evolution of the modern-day tight end has made it possible for NFL teams to view the position as much more than an extra offensive lineman who catches the occasional pass. Tight ends have become primary options in the passing game.

Tight ends such as the New England Patriots' Rob Gronkowski (second round, 2010) and Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints (third round, 2010) often line up in the slot or at wide receiver because of their ability to make plays.

Six tight ends who lined up in the slot or at wide receiver in 2011 had more than 500 yards receiving (including playoffs). Both Graham (938) and Gronkowski (876) had more than 800 yards each.

There has been a dramatic increase in 100-yard receiving games at the position since the 2001 season. Last season, there were 28 100-yard receiving games by tight ends compared to just four such games in 2001.

Tight ends have also become downfield threats. Since the start of the 2008 season, 30-plus yard receptions for tight ends have progressively risen from 64 in 2008 to 107 last season.

Who among this year’s draft prospects at tight end could blossom into a high-end contributor? ESPN NFL Draft Analyst Todd McShay thinks Stanford’s Coby Fleener “is most ready” to contribute right away (check out the breakdown of the 2012 TE class).

Fleener was effective stretching the field last season, catching 15 of 24 targets (62.5 percent) with seven touchdowns on throws -- from expected No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck -- traveling at least 15 yards downfield. Fleener caught 10 touchdowns for Stanford last season, most of any tight end in FBS.

Fleener, who is 6-6 and nearly 250 pounds, did not work out at the NFL Scouting Combine, but at Stanford’s Pro Day, he ran 4.45 seconds in the 40-yard dash and is widely considered a first-round pick.

In addition to Fleener, Dwayne Allen of Clemson and Georgia’s Orson Charles are two other draft prospects that have a “good chance” to contribute as rookies in 2012. There are prospects beyond Fleener, Allen and Charles who could be worth a draft pick, according to McShay. Oklahoma’s James Hanna ran 4.49 seconds in the 40-yard dash and had a 36-inch vertical leap at the Combine.

The evolution of tight ends, according to McShay, has started to alter the ways NFL teams are evaluating defensive backs as well. Teams might be forced to look for and draft bigger defensive backs as a counter-measure to the more versatile tight end corps in the NFL.

Combine speed doesn't equal NFL success

April, 24, 2012
Apr 24
4:30
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AP Photo/Michael ConroyDarrius Heyward-Bey ran the fastest 40-yard dash time (4.3) in the 2009 NFL Draft Combine, earning him the 7th overall pick by the Oakland Raiders. He has yet to record a 1,000-yard season.
Stats & Information gets you ready for the NFL Draft later this week by taking a look at draft strategies over the years. Today, what we make of Scouting Combine stars.

With the Combine seemingly becoming more of an emphasis each season, what is the correlation between the results from the week in Indianapolis to draft position and success in the league?

Darrius Heyward-Bey played at the University of Maryland for three seasons and never had more than 800 receiving yards or five touchdowns in any given season. Nevertheless, based on the strength of his 40-yard dash (4.3) in the 2009 NFL combine, the fastest of his year, the Oakland Raiders drafted him seventh overall.

In all of his 2009 mock drafts, ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. predicted Heyward-Bey to be drafted 25th, below Michael Crabtree (eighth) and Jeremy Maclin (10th). Fellow analyst Todd McShay’s mock drafts were all similar to Kiper’s with Heyward-Bey being drafted around 20th. Both McShay and Kiper cited his speed and 40-yard dash time as primary reasons for teams to draft Heyward-Bey.

However, Heyward-Bey’s high draft position has not translated to success in the NFL. Since entering the league in 2009, Heyward-Bey has 99 career catches, six touchdowns and has yet to record a 1,000 yard season. In comparison, over the same timeframe, Maclin has 189 career catches and 19 touchdowns.

Heyward-Bey is just one example of the increased emphasis on combine results versus college careers since the combine began in 1982. The combine includes physical and psychological tests for the prospects along with interviews with team scouts, executives and coaches.

The 40-yard dash is an essential component of the combine for wide receivers as it can predict their speed in the open field. Similarly to running backs, speed in the 40-yard dash has led to a high draft position.

Since 2005, the average draft position of a wide receiver has been pick 128 (round four/five). The average draft position of the top-10 fastest wide receivers in the combine since 2005 has been 57th, over 70 positions higher than the average.

Unfortunately, their success in the combine and the draft has not translated in the league. Of the top eight fastest wide receivers from 2005-2011, only two are starters in the NFL (Jacoby Ford and Heyward-Bey) and six are not starters or are no longer in the league. They also have no Pro Bowl appearances. Of the six non-starters, they have a combined 184 receptions and 17 touchdowns.


Packers QBs not just Favre, Rodgers

April, 23, 2012
Apr 23
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Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesBrett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have been the faces of the Packers, but did you know they have selected 11 quarterbacks in the NFL Draft since 1993? That is the most in the league.
Stats & Information gets you ready for the NFL Draft later this week by taking a look at draft strategies over the years. Today, how the most successful teams draft the most quarterbacks.

The Green Bay Packers have had arguably the most stable quarterback situation in the NFL over the last 20 years, seamlessly moving from one franchise quarterback (Brett Favre) to another (Aaron Rodgers).

Yet since the advent of free agency in 1993 the Packers have taken more quarterbacks in the draft (11) than any team. What motivated the Packers to draft a quarterback nearly every year and what did that practice translate to in terms of on-field product?

Favre’s record-setting durability – he started every game for Green Bay from Week 4 in 1992 through the end of the 2007 season – would argue against needing to use those 11 draft picks on quarterbacks as insurance against an injury, but the Packers were able to cash in the value of the position in other ways: Three of those QBs were traded away for future draft picks, one became Favre’s successor as the franchise quarterback, and another played as a stable and effective backup.

It wasn’t a flawless plan. In fact, three of the first six quarterbacks drafted after Favre’s arrival – Jay Barker (1995, 5th round), Kyle Wachholtz (1996, 7th round) and Ron McAda (1997 7th round) – never played a down in the NFL.

But the other three – Mark Brunell (1993, 5th round), Matt Hasselbeck (1998, 6th round) and Aaron Brooks (1999, 4th round) – were used in trades that brought the Packers three third-round picks, one first-round pick and one fifth-round pick.


Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesMatt Flynn’s Week 17 performance last year helped him land a free agent contract with Seattle this offseason.


Green Bay’s next three quarterbacks drafted showed mixed results. Craig Nall (2002, 5th round) and Ingle Martin (2006, 5th round) attempted a combined total of 48 passes for the Packers and soon were out of the league.

But the next quarterback Green Bay selected, Aaron Rodgers (2005, 1st round) led the Packers to their latest Super Bowl championship (XLV).

In April 2008, months before Rodgers became Green Bay’s starter, the Packers selected two more quarterbacks – Brian Brohm in the second round and Matt Flynn in the seventh.

Brohm was waived after that season and hooked on as a backup in Buffalo, but Flynn capped his seasons as Rodgers’ backup with six touchdown passes and nearly 500 passing yards against the Lions in Week 17 last season.

That performance made Flynn a hot commodity in the offseason and he signed a lucrative contract with the Seattle Seahawks. The Packers will receive a compensatory pick in next year’s draft because of Flynn’s exit.

Raiders draft picks yield early treasure

April, 21, 2012
Apr 21
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At first glance, the Oakland Raiders 2012 NFL Draft would make most people snicker as they have just five picks (three coming from awarded compensatory picks). They are tied with the Saints for the fewest picks in the draft.

However, one needs to look back and see what players they received for their traded draft picks before you can fully judge.

First Round
Traded to the Bengals, along with a 2013 conditional pick, for QB Carson Palmer


Last October, the Raiders were in trouble. They were 4-2 after six games but lost Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone in Week Six.

Following the trade, Palmer played in each of the Raiders last 10 games (starting nine), with the Raiders going 4-6 to finish 8-8. Despite no training camp and learning the offense on the job, Palmer finished with a 62.3 QBR, 11th among qualifying quarterbacks.

Second Round
Traded to the Patriots for two picks in the 2011 draft


Those picks turned into OL Joe Barksdale and RB Taiwan Jones. While neither is a starter, they are currently second at their positions on the Raiders depth chart and could eventually start for the team.

Third Round
Used in the 2011 Supplemental draft to take QB Terrelle Pryor


This was certainly a risky play, but Pryor may serve as their backup this season behind Palmer with the Raiders hoping that he can become a future starter.

In supplemental draft history, Only six quarterbacks have been drafted in supplemental draft history, not including the 1984 draft that included players from the CFL and USFL. Each of the previous five made at least 20 starts in the NFL, but only Steve Walsh had a winning record.

Fourth Round
Traded to the Redskins in April 2010 as part of a deal for Jason Campbell


This trade would have looked better if Campbell had stayed healthy last season and led the Raiders to the playoffs. Campbell won 11 of his 18 starts for the Raiders despite sporting a QBR of 43.8 in two seasons. Among qualifying quarterbacks in that time period, Campbell’s QBR ranked 28th.

Seventh Round
Traded to the Seahawks for Aaron Curry


Of all the picks on this list, this pick could have the most value. Curry was the fourth overall pick in 2009 but fell out of favor in Seattle. After the trade in early October, Curry started nine games and had 46 tackles, including five for a loss, and is slated to start for the Raiders this season.

Summary

The Raiders used three picks in the 2012 draft to acquire quarterbacks (Palmer, Pryor and Campbell). Since 1967, only once has a team drafted three quarterbacks in a single draft - the 1975 Raiders - who selected Dave Humm (5th round, 128th overall), Harry Knight (9th round, 232nd overall) and Tom Doyle (14th round, 362nd overall).

The Raiders used five picks in the 2012 draft in five different trades but they did pick up two starters, including a quarterback, and three backup players who could contribute to the Raiders in the future.

Defense is key on AFC West draft boards

April, 20, 2012
Apr 20
11:27
AM ET
Stats & Information gets you ready for the NFL Draft at the end of the month with a look at the biggest need for each team. Today, we finish up with the AFC West.

Denver Broncos
Need: Defensive line

Last season, the Broncos switched from a 3-4 defense to 4-3. Denver got just 2.0 sacks from players lining up as an interior defensive lineman, tied for the fewest among teams playing a 4-3.

Making matters worse, Brodrick Bunkley has departed and Ryan McBean is suspended for the first six games of the season.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Kansas City Chiefs
Need: Interior defense

Chiefs’ nose tackles made little impact last season, registering one sack and three tackles for loss, all by unconditional free agent Kelly Gregg.

The Chiefs allowed seven rushing touchdowns up the middle last season, tied for third-most in the NFL.

ILB Derrick Johnson had 2.0 sacks, five passes defended, two interceptions and nine tackles for loss; ILB partner Jovan Belcher had no sacks, no passes defended, no interceptions and three tackles for loss.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

Oakland Raiders
Need: Defensive back

Raiders’ cornerbacks had 27 pass disruptions or interceptions last season, tied for 21st in the NFL. However, 15 of those plays came from Stanford Routt, who was cut in the offseason.

The Raiders allowed nine more touchdowns than interceptions with five-or-more defensive backs on the field last season, tied for the fifth-worst differential in the league.

Oakland has drafted the fastest 40 time from the combine in each of the last three drafts. In 2008, it drafted the second and fifth fastest. The fastest player at this year’s combine was Josh Robinson, a defensive back from Central Florida.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: No picks in first two rounds
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: No picks in first two rounds

San Diego Chargers
Need: Offensive line

The Chargers used 19 different offensive line combinations last season, tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Their most used line combo played only 353 of 1,047 snaps together.

San Diego averaged 3.9 yards per rush to the right side last season, tied for fifth-worst in the league.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Chandler Jones, OLB, Syracuse
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Cordy Glenn, OL, Georgia
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