Stats & Info: NFL Next Level
Tyler Kaufman/Icon SMISam Montgomery (99) and Kevin Minter (46) joined Barkevious Mingo (49) as three of the six LSU players -- all on defense -- taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.
Last year there were 16 SEC players drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.
Cornerback Tyrann Mathieu was one of six LSU players drafted -- all from the defense -- the most defensive players ever drafted from one school the first three rounds in a single draft.
LSU’s six players drafted are just one fewer than the entire Big Ten Conference.
The rest of the Day 2 roundup:
• The Cincinnati Bengals chose North Carolina RB Giovani Bernard with the 37th pick. That’s the latest the first running back has been chosen in the Common Draft Era.
• Then Notre Dame LB Manti Te’o was selected 38th overall by the San Diego Chargers, the first Notre Dame linebacker to get picked in the first two rounds since Courtney Watson (to the New Orleans Saints) in 2004.
The last Fighting Irish linebacker to go as high as Te’o was Demetrius Dubose (34th to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) in 1993.
• With the next pick, the New York Jets chose West Virginia QB Geno Smith. The Jets had a 24.7 Total QBR last season, 2nd-lowest in the NFL (only the Arizona Cardinals were worse). Since drafting Mark Sanchez, the Jets have not finished a season ranked higher than 16th in Total QBR.
It’s the highest a West Virginia quarterback has ever been drafted.
A few things to note about Smith’s college experience:
1) He attempted more than 96 percent of his passes out of a shotgun or pistol formation in his career. Dana Holgorsen introduced Smith to the pistol in 2011, and he threw 42 touchdowns and four interceptions out of that formation.
2) He threw 177 of his 518 passes (34.2 percent) at or behind the line of scrimmage last season, including a BCS AQ-high 112 screen passes. As a result, Smith’s average pass traveled only 7.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, the fewest air yards per attempt of any top QB prospect.
• Boise State has had six defensive backs drafted in the past seven years -- they had six drafted in the previous 40 years combined.
Since Chris Petersen took over as head coach in 2006, the Broncos have had eighth players selected in the first two rounds. Before 2006, Boise State had just two players ever chosen in the draft’s first two rounds.
• If we need more evidence that this is a passing league, there have been 16 cornerbacks selected and 11 wide receivers, the most of any position, and there have been nine safeties taken, tied for fourth-most.
• The 55 defensive players drafted is the most ever through three rounds.
• The 25 defensive backs taken is the most ever through three rounds.
• The six running backs is tied for the fewest through three rounds.
Top things to know: NFL Draft RB prospects
April, 18, 2013
Apr 18
2:14
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
John David Mercer/USA TODAY SportsEddie Lacy is rated as the top running back prospect in the 2013 class by Scouts Inc.
Lacy was the beneficiary of one of the top offensive lines in football. Lacy gained 65 percent of his yards before initial contact and averaged 4.2 yards before contact per rush. He made it at least five yards past the line of scrimmage without being touched on 35.8 percent of his rushes.
Lacy runs downhill with 64.7 percent of his rushes coming between the tackles. Lacy averaged 7.6 yards per carry on such running plays with about one in every four attempts going for at least 10 yards.
In comparison to former Alabama running back Trent Richardson, Lacy averaged 2.5 more yards per rush inside the tackles in his final college season.
Montee Ball
Ball was undoubtedly the most productive back in FBS over the last two seasons. Ball led FBS in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and rushes of 15 yards or longer since the start of the 2011 season.
Ball gained 36.1 percent of his FBS-leading 3,750 yards on rushes outside of the tackles over the last two seasons. Ball averaged 7.1 yards per carry on such running plays with at about one in every four gaining at least 10 yards.
Andre Ellington
Ellington gained over 40 percent of his yards after contact in 2012 but struggled to gain tough yards against top competition. Ellington averaged twice as many yards after contact per rush against teams that did not finish the season ranked in the top 50 in total defense than he did against the five top-50 defenses that he faced.
Le’Veon Bell
Bell gained over half of his yards after contact and led BCS-AQ running backs with 921 yards after contact.
Marcus Lattimore
Lattimore gained 41 percent of his yards after contact in his career. Against SEC opponents, Lattimore was even better, gaining 43 percent of his yards after contact and averaging 2.0 yards after contact per rush.
Lattimore ran between the tackles on 78.9 percent of his career carries. He averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry inside the tackles in every season of his career. Lattimore was at his best in the fourth quarter, averaging 5.5 yards per run inside the tackles with 54.2 percent of his yards coming after contact.
What's next for Patriots if Gronk is out?
April, 8, 2013
Apr 8
1:44
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Mark L. Baer/USA TODAY SportsHow much will the Patriots miss Rob Gronkowski if he misses the start of the season?
Rob Gronkowski will likely require a fourth surgery on his left forearm, according to sources, which would mean 10 additional weeks of recovery and would put his availability for the start of the 2013 season in question.
Why the surgery hurts the Patriots
This would be a significant blow for a New England Patriots team that already lost leading receiver Wes Welker, who signed with the Denver Broncos this offseason.
No team relies on its tight ends more than the Patriots. Since 2010, when the Patriots drafted Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, New England has the highest percentage of receiving production coming from tight ends in the league.
When Gronkowski is healthy, he has proven to be one of the most productive receivers in the league.
His 38 career touchdowns are the third-most by any player in his first three seasons in NFL history. Only Randy Moss (43) and Jerry Rice (40) had more. Grownkowski is also the first tight end in NFL history to have at least 10 touchdown receptions in each of his first three NFL seasons.
Gronkowski has been Brady’s favorite target in the end zone over the last two seasons.
Brady has completed more than two-thirds of his throws to Gronkowski since 2011 and less than a quarter of his passes to all other Patriots.
Gronkowski’s 20 touchdowns on throws to the end zone since 2011 are by far the most of any player in the league.
Gronk was also one of the most valuable members of the Patriots offense last year. When Gronkowski was on the field during the regular season, the Patriots averaged more yards per play (6.1 vs 5.4) and the quarterbacks had a better completion percentage (66% vs 58%) compared to when he was off the field.
Why the Patriots can survive without Gronk
The Patriots have prepared for life without Gronkowski, after he missed five regular season games last year along with the playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens.
Even though Gronkowski may miss some time, it doesn’t mean the Patriots' two-tight-end offense will go away. In Weeks 11-15 last year without Gronkowski, the Patriots used multiple tight end sets on 55 percent of their plays, which was actually higher than the 42 percent rate in Weeks 1-10 with Gronkowski.
New England also signed wide receiver Danny Amendola in the offseason to replace Welker. Amendola has the skills to fill the slot receiver role that Welker perfected in the Patriots passing game.
His average target distance over the last four seasons is the shortest in the league and he nearly matched Welker's per-game production when lined up in the slot last season.
Amendola is also much more sure-handed than Welker, who’s 11 drops last season were the second-most in the NFL. Since 2010, Welker has caught passes at a rate of 12.5 receptions for every drop. Amendola’s success rate is considerably better at 21.9 receptions per drop.
What pros/cons come with Geno Smith
April, 4, 2013
Apr 4
11:08
AM ET
By Sharon Katz, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Justin K. Aller/Getty ImagesWhen the smoke clears, what will become of Geno Smith?Jon Gruden will be doing his Quarterback Camp with Geno Smith at 8:30 p.m. ET tonight on ESPN2.
To give you something to think about as you watch, here is an in-depth breakdown of Smith’s greatest strengths and some team-specific concerns about him from a statistical perspective.
Greatest Strengths
Accuracy
Smith completed 71.2 percent of his passes last season, including 42 touchdowns. Smith threw just six interceptions in 518 pass attempts and did not throw an interception in his first 272 pass attempts of the season.
Smith was particularly effective on short passes. He attempted half of his passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage, including an AQ-high 112 screen passes last season.
On passes of this distance, Smith completed 82.6 percent with 15 touchdowns and no interceptions.
In comparison to recent top QBs, Smith completed a similar percentage of his passes in his final year of college, but it is important to note that his average pass traveled more than a yard shorter than all of those quarterbacks listed in the chart above.
Poise in the Pocket
Smith completed 70.8 percent of his passes when opponents sent five or more pass rushers last season, the highest completion percentage against the blitz of Scouts Inc.’s top eight QB prospects.
Smith was able to exploit blitzing defenses in much the same way that Robert Griffin III did in his final season of college. Griffin III went on to lead the NFL with a 96.8 Total QBR against the blitz.
Further, Smith was sacked 19 times in 571 dropbacks last season. He was able to scramble for 253 yards when forced out of the pocket as well as complete 49.5 percent of his passes when under duress (avg FBS quarterback completed only 40 percent).
Ball Placement
West Virginia gained 2,459 yards after the catch last season, most of any school in an AQ conference. While the Mountaineers had one of the best receiving duos in the nation in Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, a lot of their success was due to Smith’s ball placement.
The Mountaineers averaged 6.5 yards after the catch per reception and gained at least five yards after the catch on 44 percent of their receptions last season.
To put that into perspective, Baylor averaged 6.3 yards after the catch per reception while running a similar offense with Griffin at quarterback.
Team-Specific Concerns
Under Center Snaps
Smith attempted over 96 percent of his passes out of a shotgun or pistol formation in his career.
The NFL is trending towards more spread tendencies, but the average NFL quarterback still attempted over a third of his passes after taking a snap from under center.
Zone-read Running
Teams looking for the next zone-read quarterback may be lured by Smith’s 4.59 40-yard dash at the combine. Yet, Smith attempted only 11 designed rushes in 2012 and averaged 2.5 yards per rush on those carries.
Smith is adept at taking snaps and passing from a pistol formation – the primary formation used for zone reads – but has not shown the ability to run out of the formation.
Since West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen introduced Smith to the pistol in 2011, Smith has thrown 42 touchdowns and four interceptions out of that formation. He improved his completion rate from 63 percent in 2011 to nearly 72 percent last season.
Note that just because Smith did not run does not mean that he cannot run. Smith scrambled for 253 yards and averaged 7.2 yards per scramble in 2012.
Weather
Smith’s final college game came in snowy Yankee Stadium in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. The lasting image for many will be Smith struggling in that game with one fumble lost and two plays resulting in safeties.
Over the last two seasons, Smith has fared worse in cold weather than in mild weather.
In the seven games that he played against AQ opponents where the temperature was 50 degrees or colder at kickoff, he completed less than 65 percent of his passes and turned the ball over at a higher rate than in games when the temperature was above 50 degrees.
Chiefs drawn to Smith's efficiency
February, 27, 2013
Feb 27
3:29
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Ralph Freso/Getty ImagesAlex Smith is reportedly heading to Kansas City after spending eight seasons with the 49ers.
Smith would be the latest in a line of former 49ers quarterbacks who have moved to Kansas City:
• Joe Montana was traded from San Francisco to Kansas City in April of 1993. He led the Chiefs to a pair of playoff appearances in two seasons and advanced all the way to the AFC Championship Game in 1993.
• Steve Bono was a highly regarded backup in San Francisco when he was traded to the Chiefs in 1994. Bono became the Chiefs' starter in 1995 and led the team to a 13-3 record.
• Elvis Grbac spent his first four seasons with the 49ers before signing with the Chiefs as a free agent in 1997. Grbac spent four seasons as the Chiefs' starter before moving on to Baltimore.
• And now it's Alex Smith's turn. Drafted first overall by the 49ers in 2005, Smith led San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game in 2011 before Colin Kaepernick took over as starter in Week 11 of this season.
In terms of Total QBR, the trade makes a lot of sense from the Chiefs’ perspective. Smith was the seventh-most efficient quarterback in 2012 with a rating of 70.1.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, ranked 29th in QBR at 31.9. Only the Browns, Jets and Cardinals were worse last season.
One reason that Smith posted such a high QBR in 2012 is that he was an accurate passer who took care of the ball.
Smith led the NFL with a 70.2 completion percentage last season and, since 2011, has thrown an interception on just 1.5 percent of his pass attempts. Among qualified passers over that span, only Aaron Rodgers (1.3) has thrown interceptions at a lower rate.
In Kansas City, quarterbacks have not been nearly as secure with the ball. Chiefs quarterbacks committed 29 turnovers in 2012, including 20 interceptions. The 29 turnovers trailed only the Jets (33) for most in the NFL and the 20 interceptions were one shy of the league-leading Cardinals (21).
Kansas City also threw a league-low eight touchdown passes in 2012, the fewest in a single season by any team since the 2007 Oakland Raiders (seven).
Alex Smith threw 13 touchdown passes in just nine games last season and his 30 touchdowns since 2011 are nine more than Chiefs passers have thrown over the same span.
Will the move pay immediate dividends? AccuScore seems to think so. According to 10,000 computer simulations, Alex Smith is worth approximately 2.2 wins for the Chiefs in 2013 and improves their chances of reaching the playoffs from 0.2 percent to 8.8 percent.
All that said, Smith will be forced to start from scratch in 2013. Doug Pederson will be the eighth offensive coordinator that Smith has played under in just his ninth season in the league. The past two seasons marked just the second time in his career that he had the same coordinator to begin consecutive NFL seasons.
Analyzing the relationship of NFL couples
February, 14, 2013
Feb 14
12:50
PM ET
By Jon Kramer, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Today is Valentine’s Day, when the thoughts of young football fans turn to ... well ... more football.
Stats & Information looks at some NFL couples and lets you know who should stay together, who needs to rebuild their relationship and who might want to spend some time apart.
COUPLES WHO NEED TO STAY TOGETHER
• Tom Brady and Wes Welker: Free-agent-to-be Welker has 672 receptions since joining the Patriots in 2007, the most for a player over any six-year span in NFL history.
• Eli Manning and Victor Cruz: Cruz, who is slated to become a restricted free agent, has 168 receptions and 19 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Along with Hakeem Nicks, he gives Manning one of the game’s best deep threats in the league.
• Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson: Johnson set an NFL single-season record with 1,964 receiving yards in 2012, while Stafford set an NFL record with 727 pass attempts. These two need to stay together if only to torture statisticians everywhere.
COUPLES WHO NEED TO REBUILD THEIR RELATIONSHIP
• Tony Romo and Dez Bryant: Early in the season, they didn't appear to be on the same page, but Bryant caught a league-high 10 TD passes from Week 10 until the end of the season.
• Aaron Rodgers and Jermichael Finley: Finley caught a career-high 61 balls in 2012, but just two went for touchdowns. At times it appeared that Rodgers had lost confidence in his tight end and reports have appeared that the Packers might release Finley.
• Cam Newton and Steve Smith: Smith was critical of Newton's sideline demeanor last season, and he could have a point. When trailing in the fourth quarter over the last two seasons, Newton’s QBR of 35.9 is 35th among 45 qualifying quarterbacks.
COUPLES WHO MIGHT NEED TO SPEND SOME TIME APART
• Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan: After going to a pair of AFC Championship games in their first two seasons together, the relationship hasn't worked recently. Sanchez regressed even further in 2012, and has an NFL-high 52 turnovers over the last two seasons.
• Alex Smith and Jim Harbaugh: Harbaugh has turned to the younger Colin Kaepernick. Since Kaepernick took over as the starter in Week 11, his 81.2 Total QBR is second to only Russell Wilson. Smith’s QBR of 54.1 since the start of 2011 is 19th among quarterbacks with at least 500 action plays.
• Matt Cassel and Andy Reid: The Chiefs and Reid’s Eagles were tied with the Jets for the most turnovers in the NFL last season with 37. Cassel struggled with 19 turnovers in just nine games.
Stats & Information looks at some NFL couples and lets you know who should stay together, who needs to rebuild their relationship and who might want to spend some time apart.
COUPLES WHO NEED TO STAY TOGETHER
• Tom Brady and Wes Welker: Free-agent-to-be Welker has 672 receptions since joining the Patriots in 2007, the most for a player over any six-year span in NFL history.
• Eli Manning and Victor Cruz: Cruz, who is slated to become a restricted free agent, has 168 receptions and 19 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Along with Hakeem Nicks, he gives Manning one of the game’s best deep threats in the league.
• Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson: Johnson set an NFL single-season record with 1,964 receiving yards in 2012, while Stafford set an NFL record with 727 pass attempts. These two need to stay together if only to torture statisticians everywhere.
COUPLES WHO NEED TO REBUILD THEIR RELATIONSHIP
• Tony Romo and Dez Bryant: Early in the season, they didn't appear to be on the same page, but Bryant caught a league-high 10 TD passes from Week 10 until the end of the season.
• Aaron Rodgers and Jermichael Finley: Finley caught a career-high 61 balls in 2012, but just two went for touchdowns. At times it appeared that Rodgers had lost confidence in his tight end and reports have appeared that the Packers might release Finley.
• Cam Newton and Steve Smith: Smith was critical of Newton's sideline demeanor last season, and he could have a point. When trailing in the fourth quarter over the last two seasons, Newton’s QBR of 35.9 is 35th among 45 qualifying quarterbacks.
COUPLES WHO MIGHT NEED TO SPEND SOME TIME APART
• Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan: After going to a pair of AFC Championship games in their first two seasons together, the relationship hasn't worked recently. Sanchez regressed even further in 2012, and has an NFL-high 52 turnovers over the last two seasons.
• Alex Smith and Jim Harbaugh: Harbaugh has turned to the younger Colin Kaepernick. Since Kaepernick took over as the starter in Week 11, his 81.2 Total QBR is second to only Russell Wilson. Smith’s QBR of 54.1 since the start of 2011 is 19th among quarterbacks with at least 500 action plays.
• Matt Cassel and Andy Reid: The Chiefs and Reid’s Eagles were tied with the Jets for the most turnovers in the NFL last season with 37. Cassel struggled with 19 turnovers in just nine games.Kelly's system, decline could vex Vick
February, 11, 2013
Feb 11
4:46
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
John David Mercer/US PresswireWith his new one-year deal, Michael Vick might face even more contact in Chip Kelly's offense.Recent decline
Vick went 8-3 in 11 starts for the Eagles in 2010, throwing 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions. Over the past two seasons, he’s 10-13 in 23 starts with just six more touchdowns than interceptions.
In 2010, Vick ranked fifth among quarterbacks with a 68.0 Total QBR on a scale from 0 to 100. That dropped slightly to 64.7 in 2011 before falling drastically last season. In 2012, Vick posted a 46.0 QBR, which was 26th in the NFL.
Vick was sidelined with a concussion in Week 10 and has only played in all 16 games once in his 10-year career.
Vick has fumbled 32 times in the past three seasons, losing 12 of them to the other team. Only Mark Sanchez has more fumbles in that span. The other four players with at least 27 fumbles since 2010 have all played at least 12 more games than Vick.
When Vick has played over the past two seasons, he has had troubles with turnovers -- especially in the red zone.
In his first season as the Eagles’ starter, Vick accounted for 22 touchdowns through the air and on the ground, with only one turnover in the red zone. In the past two seasons, he has averaged 12 touchdowns and five turnovers in the red zone. Those 10 red-zone turnovers since 2011 are the most in the NFL.
Philadelphia’s offense had one of its worst seasons in the past 15 years in 2012. The Eagles averaged 17.5 points per game and only scored touchdowns on 44 percent of red-zone possessions. Both numbers were the team’s worst since 1999.
The cause of the dropoff wasn’t Vick’s injury, though. The Eagles averaged the same number of yards per play with Vick off the field as when he played.
Chip Kelly’s offense
Over his career, Vick has averaged 7.0 yards per carry, the most in NFL history among players with at least 500 rushes. So he should fit well in Chip Kelly’s system, right?
While Vick is known as a running quarterback, Kelly’s offense at Oregon was even more run-heavy. Last season, 37 percent of Vick’s rushes were on designed rushing plays. At Oregon, 62 percent of QB rushes were on designed rushing plays.
One reason Vick has trouble staying on the field is the number of hits he takes. Despite only playing in 35 games over the past three seasons, Vick ranks second among all players in most times sacked or hit while throwing or rushing.
Financial impact
Under Vick’s old contract, he was scheduled to earn $15.5 million in total compensation in 2013. The only quarterback scheduled to earn more than that in total compensation in 2013 is Peyton Manning ($20 million).
To put Vick’s potential earnings of $10 million in perspective, 12 quarterbacks are scheduled to earn at least $10 million in total compensation in 2013. That number is expected to grow when Joe Flacco signs.
Flacco dominant downfield against Niners
February, 4, 2013
Feb 4
10:25
AM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Chuck Cook/USA TODAY SportsJoe Flacco had a Total QBR of 95.1 Sunday, tied for the 2nd-best single-game Total QBR of his career.

Joe Flacco's exceptional playoff run is a significant reason why the Baltimore Ravens are Super Bowl XLVII champions, but where specifically did he excel? An advanced look into his performance as well as some others from both the Ravens and San Francisco 49ers:
Flacco Dangerous Downfield
For starters, Flacco was able to find success downfield. He was 7-13 for 171 yards and two touchdowns on passes deeper than 10 yards downfield in Super Bowl XVLII. By contrast, Flacco struggled on those throws in the regular season, posting the second-worst completion percentage (41.1 percent).
From 2008-11 in the postseason, Flacco had just one touchdown and six interceptions on throws over 10 yards downfield, but this postseason, he tossed seven touchdowns and had no interceptions. On Sunday, Flacco also took advantage of a San Francisco defense that had been allowing the big play more often.
Including the Super Bowl, the 49ers allowed five touchdowns and a 67.5 completion percentage on passes more than 10 yards downfield in the postseason. In the regular season, the 49ers allowed only three touchdowns (fewest) on those throws and a 38.7 completion percentage (third best).
Bold When it Matters
Flacco completed seven-of-10 third-down throws for 158 yards and two touchdowns, including four-of-four and a touchdown targeting Anquan Boldin. Boldin entered the game with just one third-down touchdown reception in 105 career third-down targets with the Ravens.
Boldin also became more of a threat near the goal line in the playoffs. He caught four-of-four passes thrown into the end zone during the postseason, including a 13-yard touchdown reception to open the scoring. Compare that to the regular season, when he caught three of 10 end-zone targets.
Teammate Jacoby Jones was also a significant threat. Jones scored on a 56-yard reception with 1:45 left in the second quarter, giving the Ravens a 21-3 lead. The pass traveled 47 yards downfield, giving him two touchdowns this postseason on throws at least 40 yards downfield. He is the first player since Larry Fitzgerald in 2008 to score two touchdowns on such passes in a single postseason.
Kaepernick Connection Issues
On the San Francisco side, Colin Kaepernick's strengths often became weaknesses. Including postseason play, Kaepernick entered Sunday leading the NFL with an on-target throw percentage of 87.5 among quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts. Against the Ravens, Kaepernick under or overthrew seven of 28 attempts (25.0 percent) including the only interception by either quarterback on a pass that sailed well over the head of Randy Moss.
Targeting Moss has been an issue for the Niners quarterback. Kaepernick threw three interceptions on 42 passes when throwing in Moss’ direction this season (interception every 14 attempts). When targeting his other receivers, Kaepernick threw two interceptions on 242 attempts (interception every 121 attempts).
What's more, the 49ers ran 13 option plays in both the Super Bowl and NFC Championship, but Kaepernick kept only once on those plays. In his first eight starts, Kaepernick kept a third of the time, including seven rushes for 99 yards in the Divisional Playoffs.
How do 49ers, Ravens handle tough calls?
January, 30, 2013
Jan 30
9:39
AM ET
By John Parolin | ESPN.com
With Wednesday’s focus on potential chaos on the sidelines here’s a look at how the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers compare in two areas that directly reflect the ability of those to stay calm and communicate effectively- the two-minute drill and the decision to throw the challenge flag.
The two-minute drill
The 49ers posted the fourth-best point differential in the two-minute drill (plus-34) this season.
While Colin Kaepernick has been adequate passing in the last two minutes of the half (17-for-31, 220 yards, one touchdown, one interception) his success on the ground has made him especially effective.
No quarterback in the league has more rushing first downs in the two-minute drill than Kaepernick (six).
This may be an area in which the 49ers have an edge.
The Ravens had a minus-34 point differential in the two-minute drill, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Baltimore was also one of three teams to make the playoffs with a negative turnover differential (minus-1) in the two-minute drill.
The chart on the right shows the difference in performance between the two teams this season.
However, the Ravens have executed in the two-minute offense in the postseason, outscoring opponents 21-6, with the highlight being the game-tying 70-yard touchdown throw near the end of regulation in the overtime win over the Denver Broncos.
Joe Flacco also had a touchdown throw to Torrey Smith in the two-minute drill in the first half of that game. Flacco is 6-for-9 for 183 yards with under two minutes remaining in either half this postseason.
Jim Harbaugh’s Challenges
No coach was more active with challenge flag than 49ers’ coach Jim Harbaugh.
He threw nine challenge flags during the season, tied with Ken Whisenhunt and Rex Ryan for the NFL lead.
Harbaugh’s 33 percent success rate was below the league average (48 percent of challenges were overturned). However, four of the nine were thrown in the first three weeks of the season with replacement officials.
For more on Harbaugh’s successes, check the article by Grantland’s Bill Barnwell earlier in the week.
John Harbaugh’s Challenges
Ravens coach John Harbaugh had better statistical success when challenging official rulings than his younger brother, winning three of his six challenges.
However, despite the higher success rate, Harbaugh’s decision-making involved some questionable choices.
In Week 2 against the Eagles, John Harbaugh burned a timeout to challenge whether Michael Vick was on the ground as he threw the ball away in the third quarter. Vick’s knees did not appear to be close to the ground, and Baltimore lost the challenge.
Philadelphia had just been flagged for holding and faced a 2nd-and-17 anyway, and the poor challenge cost Baltimore a timeout (Baltimore’s first) when it would have gained only seven yards.
If John Harbaugh had trusted his defense to hold off the Eagles (as they did) and saved the timeout, that might have helped the Ravens avoid the eventual outcome.
Trailing 24-23 late in the game, Baltimore would run an eight-play drive in the two-minute drill.
The drive was all passes and stalled out at the Ravens’ 46-yard line. The Ravens lost 24-23, with both timeouts remaining left unused and running back Ray Rice targeted only once on the drive.
In Week 13 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Charlie Batch was hit while throwing by Ma’ake Kemoeatu early in the third quarter and the ball came out.
Before the whistle blew, Baltimore recovered the football, but the play and subsequent replays clearly showed Batch’s arm moving forward.
Harbaugh challenged the ruling on the field, one that seemed fairly obvious to be ruled correctly.
What made this a costly decision in hindsight was that by 7:57 of the third quarter, the Ravens had used their second timeout in a 13-13 game against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh used a 6:14 drive to close out the game, with Shaun Suisham kicking a game-winning 42-yard field goal with no time left, in part because the Ravens could not stop the clock.
The two-minute drill
The 49ers posted the fourth-best point differential in the two-minute drill (plus-34) this season.
While Colin Kaepernick has been adequate passing in the last two minutes of the half (17-for-31, 220 yards, one touchdown, one interception) his success on the ground has made him especially effective.
No quarterback in the league has more rushing first downs in the two-minute drill than Kaepernick (six).
This may be an area in which the 49ers have an edge.
The Ravens had a minus-34 point differential in the two-minute drill, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Baltimore was also one of three teams to make the playoffs with a negative turnover differential (minus-1) in the two-minute drill.
The chart on the right shows the difference in performance between the two teams this season.
However, the Ravens have executed in the two-minute offense in the postseason, outscoring opponents 21-6, with the highlight being the game-tying 70-yard touchdown throw near the end of regulation in the overtime win over the Denver Broncos.
Joe Flacco also had a touchdown throw to Torrey Smith in the two-minute drill in the first half of that game. Flacco is 6-for-9 for 183 yards with under two minutes remaining in either half this postseason.
Jim Harbaugh’s Challenges
No coach was more active with challenge flag than 49ers’ coach Jim Harbaugh.
He threw nine challenge flags during the season, tied with Ken Whisenhunt and Rex Ryan for the NFL lead.
Harbaugh’s 33 percent success rate was below the league average (48 percent of challenges were overturned). However, four of the nine were thrown in the first three weeks of the season with replacement officials.
For more on Harbaugh’s successes, check the article by Grantland’s Bill Barnwell earlier in the week.
John Harbaugh’s Challenges
Ravens coach John Harbaugh had better statistical success when challenging official rulings than his younger brother, winning three of his six challenges.
However, despite the higher success rate, Harbaugh’s decision-making involved some questionable choices.
In Week 2 against the Eagles, John Harbaugh burned a timeout to challenge whether Michael Vick was on the ground as he threw the ball away in the third quarter. Vick’s knees did not appear to be close to the ground, and Baltimore lost the challenge.
Philadelphia had just been flagged for holding and faced a 2nd-and-17 anyway, and the poor challenge cost Baltimore a timeout (Baltimore’s first) when it would have gained only seven yards.
If John Harbaugh had trusted his defense to hold off the Eagles (as they did) and saved the timeout, that might have helped the Ravens avoid the eventual outcome.
Trailing 24-23 late in the game, Baltimore would run an eight-play drive in the two-minute drill.
The drive was all passes and stalled out at the Ravens’ 46-yard line. The Ravens lost 24-23, with both timeouts remaining left unused and running back Ray Rice targeted only once on the drive.
In Week 13 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Charlie Batch was hit while throwing by Ma’ake Kemoeatu early in the third quarter and the ball came out.
Before the whistle blew, Baltimore recovered the football, but the play and subsequent replays clearly showed Batch’s arm moving forward.
Harbaugh challenged the ruling on the field, one that seemed fairly obvious to be ruled correctly.
What made this a costly decision in hindsight was that by 7:57 of the third quarter, the Ravens had used their second timeout in a 13-13 game against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh used a 6:14 drive to close out the game, with Shaun Suisham kicking a game-winning 42-yard field goal with no time left, in part because the Ravens could not stop the clock.
Kaepernick a threat all over the field
January, 28, 2013
Jan 28
8:32
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireColin Kaepernick has been among the most accurate passers in the NFL this season.
Colin Kaepernick has made just nine career starts, including the playoffs, but he’s got the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl thanks to his performance from all areas of the field.
What makes Kaepernick so good? Let's take a look at three aspects of his game.
Accuracy
Only 12.5 percent of his pass attempts have been incomplete due to an over- or underthrown pass this season, the lowest in the league (including playoffs).
When he’s off-target, the result is almost always an overthrow. Only four of Kaepernick’s 101 incompletions (including playoffs) have been the result of an underthrown pass.
He’s the most accurate passer in the league on throws more than 20 yards downfield and has completed at least one of those throws in all but one of his starts this season.
Mobility
Kaepernick hasn’t been breaking the pocket as often in the postseason, with 94 percent of his pass attempts coming from within the pocket.
In the regular season, 79 percent of his attempts came in the pocket, the second-lowest rate in the league (Russell Wilson).
Despite not starting until Week 11, Kaepernick has been one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks this season.
Including playoffs, he’s gained the third-most yards on designed quarterback rushes and the fourth-most yards on scrambles.
In the regular season, when facing added pass pressure (five or more pass rushers), he held onto the ball for 3.8 seconds before passing, taking a sack or scrambling (league average: 3.4 seconds).
That rate has dipped to just 2.8 seconds in the postseason, and the result has been a Total QBR of 98.9 and a completion percentage near 70 percent against such pressure.
Dual Threat
Kaepernick set an NFL record in his first postseason start when he ran for 181 yards, the most by a quarterback in any game, regular season or postseason.
The 49ers have used more option plays in two postseason games than they did in Kaepnerick’s seven regular season starts.
He didn’t keep the ball on a single option play in the NFC Championship, but the 49ers still scored three touchdowns on those plays.
And he’s managed to avoid the big hit in the playoffs. Excluding kneel downs, Kaepernick has taken contact on five of his 16 rushes this postseason (31 percent).
In the regular season, Kaepernick took contact on 55 percent of his rushes.
Doug Pensinger/Getty ImagesJoe Flacco has improved this season after the Ravens made a change.
What’s been the difference?
Change at Coordinator
It started when the Ravens changed offensive coordinators, replacing Cam Cameron with Jim Caldwell.
In their first 13 games the Ravens ran the ball 40 percent of the time, right at the league average. Since then, they’ve run the ball on 49 percent of their plays.
The contrast has been even greater on first down -- Baltimore has used designed rushes on 61 percent of their first-down plays under Caldwell, compared to less than 50 percent under Cameron.
Forcing the defense to focus on the run has helped the passing game. After throwing one interception in Caldwell’s first game, Flacco has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in his past five games (he had 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions under Cameron).
Under Caldwell, Flacco is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and has thrown eight touchdowns without an interception against a standard pass rush (four or fewer rushers). That’s nearly two more yards per attempt than under Cameron, when he had 13 touchdowns and seven picks.
Flacco is sixth in the league with an 83.7 Total QBR against a standard pass rush over his past six games. He posted a 60.8 QBR in those situations during the first 13 games of the season, 20th in the NFL.
The Deep Ball
This has opened up a new dimension in the passing attack -- the deep ball. Under Cameron, Flacco completed just over a third of his passes more than 20 yards downfield. That number is above 50 percent under Caldwell.
His average target depth has been 12.4 yards downfield in the postseason -- nearly three yards longer than his regular season average -- and his two games with his longest average pass depth have come in the past two weeks.
Flacco averaged the same number of attempts deeper than 20 yards downfield under both coordinators (5.6 per game) but he’s capitalized on those throws under Caldwell+.
He has the most such pass attempts this season (101) but has yet to throw an interception on those throws. Since the start of 2008, no quarterback has finished a season with more than 58 such attempts without an interception (Brett Favre, 2009).
Offensive Line
The Ravens have used the offensive line combination of Bryant McKinnie (LT), Kelechi Osemele (LG), Matt Birk (C), Marshall Yanda (RG) and Michael Oher (RT) on every snap in the postseason after not using that particular unit on one snap in the regular season.
Flacco has been sacked only four times on 99 dropbacks (24.8 dropbacks per sack) in the postseason, much improved on his regular season rate (16.3 dropbacks per sack).
Ravens ground game soars under Caldwell
January, 26, 2013
Jan 26
5:47
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Jared Wickerham/Getty ImagesThe Ravens are headed to the second Super Bowl in franchise history, and the switch to Jim Caldwell as offensive coordinator was one of the keys.It's a move that appears to have paid off, as the offense averaged 30 points per game during a playoff run that pushed the Ravens to New Orleans for the franchise's second Super Bowl.
Power Football
The biggest change for the Ravens has been an emphasis on the running game under Caldwell. In its first 13 games, Baltimore ran 40 percent of the time, right at the league average.
During the last three weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, the Ravens have run 49 percent of the time.
The contrast has been even greater on first down. The Ravens have used designed rushes on 61 percent of their first down plays under Caldwell, compared to less than half the time under Cameron this season.
The overall impact has been an increase of 10 carries and 46.5 yards per game on the ground. The new emphasis hasn’t limited Baltimore’s passing attack. The Ravens threw for 236 yards per game before the change and have averaged 251 passing yards per game in their last six games.
The biggest beneficiary of the change has been rookie Bernard Pierce. In Caldwell’s six games, he has been on the field for almost a third of Baltimore’s snaps. In the first 13 games, he was on the field 17 percent of the time.
In three weeks spanning the end of the regular season and Wild Card round, he ran for 315 yards and topped the 100-yard mark twice. That topped the 300 yards he ran for in 13 weeks under Cameron.
Taking the Pressure Off Flacco
Forcing the opposition to focus on the Ravens’ rushing attack has helped the passing game. After throwing one interception in Caldwell’s first game, Joe Flacco has 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last five games. He had 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions under Cameron.
Under Caldwell, Flacco is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt and has thrown eight touchdowns without an interception when facing four or fewer rushers. That’s nearly two more yards per attempt than under Cameron, when he had 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Flacco ranks sixth in the league with an 83.7 Total QBR against four or fewer rushers over his last six games. He posted a 60.8 QBR in those situations during the first 13 games of the season, ranking 20th.
This seems to have opened up a new dimension to the Ravens passing attack -- the deep ball. Under Cameron, he completed just over a third of his passes more than 20 yards downfield. That number is above 50 percent under Caldwell.
Flacco’s average target depth has been 12.4 yards downfield this postseason, nearly three yards higher than his regular season average of 9.5 yards. This season, the two games he has thrown for the longest average pass depth have come in the last two playoff games.
Flacco, Kaepernick excel at accuracy
January, 24, 2013
Jan 24
12:33
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Marcio Jose SanchezOnly 12.5 percent of Kaepernick's attempts fall incomplete due to an over- or underthrown pass.
An advanced look at how they got here and where they both excel:
Joe Flacco
Much of Flacco's success this season stemmed from his downfield passing. Flacco has the most pass attempts more than 20 yards downfield this season (101) but has yet to throw an interception on those throws. Since the start of 2008, no quarterback has finished a season with more than 58 attempts without an interception (Brett Favre, 2009).
Flacco, however, did not attempt a pass thrown more than 20 yards downfield against the 49ers in Week 12 of the 2011 season. In his career, Flacco has only four games without such an attempt, two of which came in Week 17.
What's more, his downfield attack is becoming increasingly potent. Flacco completed eight passes on throws more than 20 yards downfield in his first nine career postseason games, but has 10 completions in three games this postseason.
The Ravens, however, have been more run-heavy with Jim Caldwell as offensive coordinator. Prior to Caldwell, the Ravens were rushing on 40.4 percent of plays, but under Caldwell that percentage has increased to 48.5.
Colin Kaepernick
Kaepernick, meanwhile, has improved against added pressure during the postseason, primarily because he is making quicker decisions. He held onto the football for 3.8 seconds before passing, taking a sack or scrambling in the regular season when facing five or more pass rushers (league average: 3.4 seconds). That has dipped to 2.8 seconds in the postseason, and the result has been a 98.9 Total QBR (out of 100).
In addition, Kaepernick hasn’t been breaking the pocket as often this postseason, with 49 of his 52 attempts (94.2 percent) coming from within the pocket. In the regular season, 78.9 percent of his attempts came within the pocket, second-lowest in the league (Russell Wilson, 73.3 percent).
His accuracy has been another huge asset. Kaepernick has seen only 12.5 percent of his pass attempts fall incomplete due to an over- or underthrown pass. When Kaepernick is off-target, the result is almost always an overthrow, as only four of Kaepernick’s 101 incompletions (including playoffs) have been a result of an underthrown pass.
Super Bowl XLVII is certainly a matchup of varying experience. Flacco's 62 wins in the regular season and postseason are the most by a QB in his first five seasons in the Super Bowl era, while Kaepernick has just nine career starts including the playoffs.
Colin Kaepernick protected in the pocket
January, 20, 2013
Jan 20
7:08
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Info | ESPN.com
Matthew Emmons/USA TODAY SportsColin Kaepernick (right) and Vernon Davis (middle) gave the Falcons fits for most of the game.Only this time they were not able to come from behind and win.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the San Francisco 49ers' 17-point comeback (they trailed 17-0) is the third largest road comeback in postseason history. The record is owned by the 1957 Detroit Lions, who came back from a 20-point deficit at San Francisco. It was the second largest deficit overcome to win a conference championship game. That record is held by the 2006 Indianapolis Colts, who overcame an 18-point deficit against the New England Patriots.
The 49ers' win snapped their five-game playoff road losing streak, winning on the road for the first time since beating the Bears in Chicago in the 1988 NFC Championship Game.
Davis does damage
Vernon Davis had been virtually nonexistent leading up to the NFC Championship Game. In the previous seven games, Davis had seven receptions for 105 yards and no touchdowns. Against the Falcons, Davis had five receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown -- his first TD reception from Colin Kaepernick since Week 11, which was Kaepernick's first start.
Davis was targeted six times on Sunday, this after being targeted an average of three times per game in Kaepernick's first eight starts.
Atlanta struggled defending tight ends this postseason. During the regular season, only one tight end (Jimmy Graham) had 100 yards receiving against the Falcons. This postseason, they allowed two such games. (Seattle's Zach Miller had 142 yards in the divisional round.)
Containing Ryan’s deep throws
Matt Ryan threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. However, after halftime he had 125 yards passing and turned it over twice with an interception and a fumble. Ryan's 396 yards passing are a franchise record in a playoff game, breaking the previous record of 366 set by Jeff George in 1995.
In the first half, Ryan was 11-for-12 with two touchdowns on throws more than 10 yards downfield and averaged more than 18 yards an attempt. However, in the second half he attempted just six throws and completed four of them, averaging just more than 12 yards an attempt.
Colin Kaepernick was kept in the pocket on 21 of his 23 dropbacks (91.3 percent), his highest rate of the season, but he averaged 11.5 yards per pass attempt inside the pocket. That was his highest rate since his first start in Week 11 (13.5 yards per attempt).
Also of note
Also according to Elias, the Falcons are the first home "dome" team to lose the conference championship game since the 1998 Minnesota Vikings, who lost to the Falcons.
The Falcons also are the first No. 1 seed from the NFC to lose in the conference championship game since the 2003 Philadelphia Eagles.
San Francisco will be going to its sixth Super Bowl, and its first since the 1994 season.
The 49ers have never lost in the Super Bowl (5-0); however, history is not on their side. No team has ever won the Super Bowl without winning at least three straight games during that regular season. And the 49ers did not win three straight games in 2012.
AFC/NFC title games: Need-to-know info
January, 19, 2013
Jan 19
12:00
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Looking back at the Stats and Info Blog's coverage leading up to the AFC and NFC Championships on Sunday afternoon.
Eight stats to know: AFC championship
Notes stats and trends on Tom Brady’s home-field advantage, the value of being a No. 4 seed, and much more.
Eight stats to know: NFC championship
Notes, stats and trends on the value of being a No. 1 seed, the Atlanta Falcons past against the San Francisco 49ers, and the pair of Matty Ices.
Lewis may not have huge impact vs Brady
Ray Lewis has had a great career, but he’s done little against Tom Brady in past meetings.
Flacco finds deep-throw success in playoffs
Joe Flacco completed only 37 percent of throws 20 or more yards downfield in the regular season. He’s fared considerably better in the postseason.
Kaepernick adds more than rushing upgrade
Colin Kaepernick’s skills include the ability to get the best out of receivers like Michael Crabtree.
Falcons must contain 49ers option game
The Green Bay Packers may have been taken by surprise considering that Kaepernick hadn’t kept the ball on an option play since Week 14. The Falcons won’t be, but they’ve had their share of troubles with quarterback runs this season.
Gronkowski injury will not slow down Patriots
Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the postseason, but you can expect the New England Patriots to continue to use their two tight-end set.
Young running backs emerge for Patriots
A closer look at what Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen do best.
Eight stats to know: AFC championship
Notes stats and trends on Tom Brady’s home-field advantage, the value of being a No. 4 seed, and much more.
Eight stats to know: NFC championship
Notes, stats and trends on the value of being a No. 1 seed, the Atlanta Falcons past against the San Francisco 49ers, and the pair of Matty Ices.
Lewis may not have huge impact vs Brady
Ray Lewis has had a great career, but he’s done little against Tom Brady in past meetings.
Flacco finds deep-throw success in playoffs
Joe Flacco completed only 37 percent of throws 20 or more yards downfield in the regular season. He’s fared considerably better in the postseason.
Kaepernick adds more than rushing upgrade
Colin Kaepernick’s skills include the ability to get the best out of receivers like Michael Crabtree.
Falcons must contain 49ers option game
The Green Bay Packers may have been taken by surprise considering that Kaepernick hadn’t kept the ball on an option play since Week 14. The Falcons won’t be, but they’ve had their share of troubles with quarterback runs this season.
Gronkowski injury will not slow down Patriots
Rob Gronkowski is out for the rest of the postseason, but you can expect the New England Patriots to continue to use their two tight-end set.
Young running backs emerge for Patriots
A closer look at what Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen do best.

