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The Tampa Bay Rays inched closer to the top of the AL East standings with a dramatic 5-4, extra-inning walk-off win against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays victory coupled with the Orioles’ loss earlier means Tampa Bay is just a game back in the division after Wednesday’s games.

This was the Rays’ fourth walk-off win of the season, which is the most among AL teams. B.J. Upton delivered the game-winning hit with an RBI double in the bottom of the 11th inning.

It was his fifth career walk-off hit, and four of those have now come against the Blue Jays. The only other Rays player with a walk-off double in the 11th inning or later was Greg Vaughn against the A’s in 2002.

James Shields held Toronto to three runs in seven innings while striking out 10 batters for his second 10-strikeout game this season.

He was effective getting the Blue Jays to chase his pitches, recording 26 swings on 50 pitches out of the strike zone (52 percent), his highest chase rate since 2009.

All 10 of his strikeouts were swinging, and nine came in at-bats ending in a changeup, his most with that pitch over the last four seasons. The Blue Jays went 1-for-13 in at-bats ending in Shields’ changeup and missed on more than half of their swings at the pitch.

The Blue Jays probably wish they didn’t have to play the Rays 10 more times this season. Toronto is now 2-6 versus Tampa Bay and 22-15 versus all other teams this season.

Elsewhere Around The Majors
•  The offensive struggles continued for both the Oakland A’s and Pittsburgh Pirates this season. The two teams have been held to one run or fewer in 14 games, the most among all teams.

The last time the A’s had 14 games of one run or fewer in their first 45 games was 1979 (18), and the last time the Pirates had 14 games of one run or fewer in their first 44 games was 1918 (14).

• Jonathon Niese helped the New York Mets beat the Pirates, 3-1, allowing one run in 7⅔ innings. Niese threw 29 pitches on the inner-third of the plate, netting 11 outs and allowing just one hit in at-bats ending with a pitch in that location.

• Alex Liddi hit his first career grand slam in the Seattle Mariners’ 5-3 win over the Texas Rangers. It was the first grand slam at home by a Mariners player since July 2010. Liddi is the second Italian-born player to hit a grand slam, joining Reno Bertoia, who had one in 1958.

• The Milwaukee Brewers scored six runs in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants and held on for an 8-5 win. The six runs are the most in the first inning for any NL team this season and the most first-inning runs for the Brewers since a 10-run frame on April 18, 2010.

Yu Darvish picked up his sixth win of the season, tied for most in the majors, as the Texas Rangers beat the Oakland Athletics 4-1.

Darvish has struck out at least seven batters in each of his last five starts after striking out 14 and walking 13 in his first three starts. That’s the longest streak off seven-strikeout games by a Rangers' pitcher since Bobby Witt in 1987.

The key for Darvish has been the most important pitch in baseball – strike one. When he throws a strike on the first pitch to a batter, they hit .146 and strikeout nearly eight times as often as they walk. A 1-0 count leads to a .308 average and more walks than whiffs.

Over his first three starts, Darvish fell behind in the count more often than not. He threw first-pitch strikes to only 42 of 88 batters (48 percent). In his most recent five starts, he has upped that percentage to 60 percent (84 of 139). On Wednesday, he threw a strike on the first pitch to 17 of 28 hitters, right at his average over his last five starts.

This has allowed him to rely less on his fastball and slider and more on his changeup and curveball. In his first three starts, nearly half of his pitches were fastballs and opposing hitters hit .343 against his heat. He was forced to go with the fastball when he fell behind in the count, recording 11 walks and just three strikeouts on the pitch in his first three starts.

In his last five starts, he has used the fastball just over a third of the time while unveiling a changeup that he didn’t throw in the first three contests and increasing his curveball frequency from 11 percent to 17 percent.

For the season, opposing hitters have only 3 hits in 38 at-bats (.079) and have struck out 24 times against his curveball. That’s the most strikeouts that he has recorded with any pitch, even though it’s only the fourth-most used pitch in his arsenal.

Around the Diamond
• Adam Jones hit a game-winning home run in the 15th inning as the Baltimore Orioles won in Kansas City. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he is the first major leaguer with two game-winning home runs in the 15th inning or later in the same season since 1988. That year, Mark McGwire hit game-winners in the 16th inning of back-to-back days in July.

• Also from our friends at Elias, Jamie Moyer became the oldest player to drive in a run in a game. Julio Franco was nearly six months younger when he drove in his final run in 2007.

• Gio Gonzalez gave up his first home run of the season after 48⅓ innings. He was the last qualified starter – meaning a minimum of one inning pitched per team game – to allow a homer this year.

Lee Singer contributed to this post.

Earlier this season, Ervin Santana couldn’t get any run support. Against the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday, he took matters into his own hands.

Santana started the season by losing his first six starts. His 5.59 ERA in that span didn’t help, but the Los Angeles Angels offense made picking up wins impossible.

After scoring three runs in Santana’s first start of the season, the Angels were shut out in his next five starts. Thanks to our friends at Elias, we know that this stretch was the first time in major-league history that a team failed to score a run in five straight starts by a pitcher.

Through their first 37 games, the Angels have been shut out eight times. The last American League team to be shut out this frequently early in the season was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, who finished 43-119 that season.

Santana turned the corner in a 6-2 win over the Minnesota Twins last week and was even better against the A’s Tuesday afternoon. He picked up his second straight win by striking out nine in 7⅔ shutout innings.

Santana was especially effective with his slider. He recorded six of his nine strikeouts on the pitch, with Oakland hitters missed on 12 of their 23 swings. Those 12 swinging strikes are the most that he has recorded with his slider in the last two seasons.

In addition to the six strikeouts, the A’s recorded outs all four times they put his slider in play. It was the first time since Santana’s no-hitter last July that he did not allow a hit with the pitch.

Santana was also able to mix in his changeup to keep the seven lefties in the Oakland lineup off balance. He threw 17 changeups, all to left-handed hitters, his most in a start in the last four seasons and didn’t surrender a hit on the pitch.

Mike Trout scored three of the four runs in support of Santana, finishing the game with three hits and his third home run of the season. After struggling against fastballs last season, Trout is hitting over .300 with all three homers against heat this season.

Albert Pujols also recorded one of his best games at the plate so far this season, rapping out three hits and driving in two runs. Three of his six multi-hit games this year have come against the Athletics, including both three-hit games.

Around the Diamond
• Bryce Harper went deep for the second straight game. According to Elias, he’s the fifth number one pick to hit his first two home runs in back-to-back games, joining Josh Hamilton, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr. and Darryl Strawberry.

• Edwin Encarnacion hit his 12th home run of the season, with nine of them at Rogers Centre. In the last two years, 23 of his 29 homers (79 percent) have been at home. That’s the highest percentage in the majors over that span.

• Derek Lowe induced 22 outs on groundballs as he became the first pitcher since Scott Erickson in 2002 to toss a shutout without recording a strikeout.

• After allowing only seven total runs in five April starts, Colby Lewis has allowed six-or-more runs in each of his starts in May.

The Tampa Bay Rays scored seven runs in the first four innings to roll past the Oakland Athletics for their 10th straight win at Tropicana Field. That’s the second-longest single-season home winning streak in franchise history, trailing only an 11-game run in 2008.

The Rays are the first American League team to start 13-1 at home since the Minnesota Twins won 14 of their first 15 home games in 2002. In 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers were the last MLB team to start 13-1.

David Price was able to shut down the Athletics with the combination of his fastball and slider.

Sixty-three percent of Price’s pitches were fastballs, and the A’s went 0-for-11 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with the heater.

With two strikes, Price went with his slider to end the at-bat. He threw 11 of his 15 sliders with two strikes and recorded six strikeouts. That’s his most whiffs with the slider since 2009.

He didn’t even need to stay in the zone to retire the opposing hitters. Over half of his pitches (56 of 106) were outside the strike zone. The Athletics swung and missed on 58 percent of pitches outside the zone, including six strikeouts. Price hadn’t induced as many chases on pitches outside the zone in a start since his rookie season.

With the win, Price improves to 30-3 at home in his career when getting at least three runs of support.

Around the Diamond
• Albert Pujols went four at-bats without a home run on Friday. His 108 at-bats without a home run this season are his longest single-season streak in his career, passing a 105 at-bat streak last season. Two long homer droughts were snapped Friday, as Shin-Soo Choo (67 at-bats) and Mark Reynolds (66 at-bats) hit their first of the season.

• Also in Anaheim, the Los Angeles Angels were shut out with Ervin Santana on the hill for the fifth straight time. Thanks to our friends at Elias, we know that this is the first time in major-league history that a starting pitcher has received no run support over five straight starts (11 pitchers had gone four straight starts without a run scored on their behalf).

• Wilson Ramos hit a bases-loaded single in the 10th inning as the Washington Nationals beat the Philadelphia Phillies to pick up their MLB-leading fifth walk-off win of the season.

• Mark Teixeira went 2-for-3 with a home run against Bruce Chen, improving to 11-for-22 with seven homers in his career against Chen. That is the most home runs he has hit against any pitcher in the majors.

• Stephen Strasburg allowed two home runs to right-handed hitters; entering the game, he had only allowed one homer to a righty in his career.

• Jerry Hairston Jr. went deep for the Dodgers, and has now hit a home run for six different teams since 2009. No other player has hit homers for as many teams in the same span.

• The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the New York Mets 5-4, snapping a nine-game losing streak in one-run games. According to Elias, that was the second longest streak in franchise history; the Diamondbacks lost 13 consecutive one-run games in 2004.

• Jamey Carroll singled in the first inning to snap a streak of 47 hitless at-bats for the Twins. Elias reports that it was the longest hitless at-bat streak by a team in a season since the San Diego Padres also went 47 at-bats between hits in June 1995.

Andrew Davis contributed to this post.

For eight innings on Wednesday, Justin Verlander pitched like the reigning American League MVP and Cy Young winner. Twenty-three pitches later, the Detroit Tigers were on the way to their first loss of the season.

Verlander needed just 81 pitches to get through the first eight innings against the Tampa Bay Rays with the Tigers leading 2-0. That brought him to 16 scoreless innings with just three hits allowed on the season. In the ninth, he allowed four runs after surrendering three hits and a walk.

Verlander was the first pitcher to throw eight scoreless innings before allowing four or more runs in the ninth inning to take a loss since Tim Hudson for the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 22, 2005, against the Philadelphia Phillies.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he’s the first starting pitcher to pick up a loss after allowing no runs on one hit or fewer in the first eight innings of a game his team led entering the ninth since Mark Langston of the Seattle Mariners in 1989. Langston took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before losing to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Verlander struggled with his fastball in the ninth inning, seemingly from over-throwing the pitch. In his first 16 innings this season, Verlander averaged 93.1 mph on his fastball, reaching a maximum velocity of 97.9. On 13 fastballs in the ninth inning against the Rays, every pitch came in above that average. He measured as high as 99.5 mph and averaged 97.2 during the frame.

Even with the extra oomph, the Rays were able to get to Verlander because he was leaving the ball over the plate. Entering the ninth, opposing hitters were 2-for-25 against Verlander’s fastball as he threw only eight percent down the heart of the plate. In the ninth inning, he threw 31 percent of his fastballs straight down the middle, including two hits by the Rays.

Quick Hits

• With the Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks losing and the Minnesota Twins winning, every major-league team has at least one win and one loss.

• Six days after tying a career-high by allowing 10 hits against the St. Louis Cardinals, Josh Johnson didn’t make it out of the fourth inning against the Phillies after allowing a career-high 11 hits.

• Peter Bourjos hit the second inside-the-park home run in Target Field history. The ball traveled 372 feet and would have been out of 10 ballparks.

• Tim Lincecum lasted just 2⅓ innings against the Colorado Rockies, his shortest outing in 157 career starts.

• The Oakland Athletics won in the bottom of the 12th inning when Jonny Gomes was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded. It was the first time game-ending hit by pitch since … Brad Lidge hit Gomes as the Washington Nationals beat the Philadelphia Phillies on August 21, 2011. From Elias, it was the first game to end with back-to-back hit batters since 1966.

• Stephen Strasburg tossed six scoreless innings, topping 100 pitches for the first time in 19 career starts with the Nationals.

The Major League Baseball regular-season opens in Japan for the fourth time, with the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics squaring off at 6:10 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

Felix Hernandez will make his fourth straight Opening day start for the Mariners. It’s the third straight time that his opening start has been against the Athletics. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only one other active pitcher has thrown three consecutive season openers for one team against the same opponent. While with the Indians, CC Sabathia started on Opening Day from 2006 to 2008, with all three games coming against the White Sox.

His opposite number will be Brandon McCarthy, who will be the seventh different Opening Day starting pitcher for Oakland in the last seven years. Elias points out that the Athletics are the only team in the majors to use six different pitchers to open the last six seasons. That’s nothing new for Oakland, which tabbed different starting pitchers for 10 consecutive Opening Day games from 1993 to 2002.

Hernandez is the more well-known of the two Opening Day starters, but McCarthy garnered a lot of attention this offseason for his commitment to analytics and was the cover story in a recent issue of ESPN The Magazine.

In 170⅔ IP last season, McCarthy allowed only five home runs and had a nearly 5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He did so by transforming himself into a ground-ball pitcher.

The pitch that made McCarthy into a successful major league pitcher in 2011 was the cutter. After missing 2010 due to injury, McCarthy made a very strong impression in his return to the majors, pitching with much better control. The cutter played a big part in that.

Last season, 69 percent of McCarthy’s cutters were thrown for strikes. Opposing hitters recorded just 16 hits in 100 at bats that ended with a cutter. He was even more dominant with two strikes, allowing just one hit in 52 at bats ending with two-strike cutters.

Quick hits
The two franchises have headed in opposite directions on Opening Day recently. The Athletics have lost seven straight season openers, including one against the Red Sox in Japan in 2008. The Mariners have won five straight Opening Day games since losing to the Angels in 2006.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only one American League team has lost eight straight Opening Day games. The Washington Senators dropped eight straight from 1963 through 1970.

Also from Elias, the Mariners' five-year Opening Day win streak is tied for the longest in franchise history. They previously won five straight openers from 1982 to 1986.

Yoenis Cespedes is expected to make his major-league debut for Oakland. He signed a four-year, $36-million contract with the Athletics this offseason after hitting 33 home runs for Granma in the Cuban National Series during the 2010-11 season. That’s tied for the most home runs in a single season in Cuba.

Ichiro Suzuki is 13-for-42 on Opening Day, and all 13 hits have been singles.

Justin Havens contributed to this post.

While the Hot Stove season is largely dominated by free agency and trade talks, an overlooked aspect of every MLB offseason is the arbitration process. If a player is eligible, the team and the player submit figures for the upcoming season’s salary. If the two sides cannot agree on a compromise, they advance to a process that is resolved by an arbiter, who picks one of the two figures submitted.

The 2011-12 arbitration season has brought with it two statistical and historical storylines - the potential end of the Cleveland Indians’ streak of avoiding arbitration and the unbeaten run of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Indians & Arbitration: Like Oil & Water

While it looked like it might be snapped any number of times, the Indians have not gone to arbitration with a player since 1991. Thanks to Maury Brown's Business of Baseball website, we can tell you that is the longest such streak in the Major Leagues. The last time the Indians went to arbitration was 1991, when the team did so with Greg Swindell and Jerry Browne.

Why is this relevant? The Indians currently have one arbitration-eligible player unsigned – SS Asdrubal Cabrera. The Indians and Cabrera are continuing discussions on a long-term contract, but without a resolution on that front, the team and player will likely head to arbitration. Cabrera's camp has requested a 2012 salary of $5.2 million, while the Indians have countered with an offer of $3.75 million.

For additional context, the landscape of Major League Baseball was noticeably different in 1991 than it is in 2012. The Indians played their home games in Cleveland Stadium and resided in the AL East. The team's Opening Day payroll was $18,270,000, roughly one-third of what it projects to be in 2012.

The last time the Indians went to arbitration, the highest Opening Day payroll in baseball was held by the Oakland Athletics - $33,632,500. The Athletics have a projected Opening Day payroll for 2012 of $38,765,500.

The last time the Indians went to arbitration, the Opening Day payroll of the New York Yankees was $27,815,835. That represents just 13.7 percent of the $202,689,028 payroll the team had for 2011.

Rays: Great on the Field, Better off it

While the Rays track record on the field has been impressive enough under the Andrew Friedman regime, no team can match the success of Friedman and the rest of the front office at the arbitration table.

The team’s arbitration win over starting pitcher Jeff Niemann earlier this week improved the Rays franchise to 6-0 all-time in arbitration, the best win percentage in MLB.

The Rays have as many arbitration wins in six all-time cases (6) as the Detroit Tigers have in 20 all-time cases (6-14). In all, the Rays have defeated Niemann (2012), B.J. Upton (2010), Dioner Navarro (2009), Josh Paul (2006, 2007) and Esteban Yan (2002).

Rays sign Carlos Pena
Pena has managed to continue to get playing time despite a plummeting batting average. His .216 batting average since 2009 is the lowest by a player who had at least 1,500 plate appearances over a three-season span since Rob Deer hit .210 for the Tigers and Red Sox from 1991 to 1993.

Pena has made up for his lack of batting average in other ways. His 95 home runs over the last three seasons rank ninth-best in the majors and his 275 walks in that span rank fifth-most.

Left-handed pitchers have given Pena a lot of trouble. He’s hitting .179 against them over the last three seasons, worst in the majors. Pena hit .133 last season against lefties last season, second-worst to Adam Dunn’s .064. Pena missed on 37 percent of his swings against southpaws last season, the worst rate in the majors.

Pena is predictable in where he hits the ball. Pena pulled 52 percent of the balls he put into play over the last three seasons, the fifth-highest rate among those with at least 300 plate appearances from the left side.

Pena’s reputation on the defensive side is that of someone who is very adept at handling difficult throws.

Baseball Info Solutions does video review of every play of every game, tagging plays into more than 30 categories of Good Fielding Plays. Pena was the 2011 leader in the category most pertinent to first basemen: Handling Difficult Throws.

Pena was credited with 58 instances of handling a throw that was either in the dirt or close to pulling him off the bag, 13 more than anyone else in baseball. That’s the most by any first baseman in a season since BIS started charting the stat in 2004.

However, Pena did have 35 Defensive Misplays & Errors, tied for second-most in the majors, trailing only Prince Fielder’s 43.
-- Mark Simon

Seth Smith traded to Oakland Athletics
Like many hitters in Colorado, Smith benefitted from his home park. Over the last three seasons, his OPS was nearly 200 points higher and his isolated slugging was more than 100 points better at Coors Field than on the road.

Coors Field was especially a homer-haven for lefties like Smith. According to BIS Park Factors, Coors inflated left-handed home run production by 29 percent over the last three seasons, the third-largest increase among all stadiums.

Despite an overall slugging percentage of .487 since 2009 that ranked 12th among all lefties, Smith appeared to really benefit from the thin air in Denver. He hit nearly the same percentage of flyballs regardless of location, but those flyballs went over the fence at a much higher rate at home.

One out of every eight flies became a homer at Coors, compared to one of every 13 on the road since 2009. Further evidence of the Coors effect is highlighted by the 23-foot difference in his home run distance at home versus on the road in 2011.

The 420-foot average for his nine home runs at Coors would have ranked third in the majors; his 397-foot average for his six road homers would have tied for 62nd out of 109 players with at least 15 homers last year.

Smith will have a difficult time duplicating that power next year in an Oakland ballpark that is really tough on lefty hitters. According to the same park factors above, the Coliseum suppressed left-handed homer production by 27 percent from 2009-11, the fifth-largest decrease in the majors.
-- Katie Sharp

Carlos Zambrano: Traded to Miami Marlins
Zambrano’s batting average on balls in play was nearly identical in 2010 and 2011 (.309 vs .307). So what was the issue that led to his ERA jumping by nearly 1.5 runs?

Zambrano’s home run rate soared in 2011. He went from allowing a home run for every 20 fly balls allowed in 2010 to yielding a home run for every nine fly balls allowed in 2011.

His success has historically come when he kept the ball down. Zambrano’s percentage of pitches in the lower-third of the strike zone and below dropped from 43 percent in 2010 to 38 percent in 2011.

Zambrano’s pitches in the middle and upper part of the strike zone got hit harder. His opponents OPS on such pitches jumped from .673 (in 2010) to .813 (in 2011).

Those numbers coincide with a decline in the effectiveness of Zambrano’s slider and splitter. Batters missed on 38 percent of their swings against those pitches in 2010, but that number dropped to 26 percent in 2011.

The best illustration of the difference for Zambrano is in where he threw his slider and splitter most often to lefties, as noted in the heat maps above and in the chart on the right. Zambrano’s fine tuning the location of his pitches will be something to watch for in 2012.
-- Mark Simon

Chris Volstad: Traded to Chicago Cubs
Volstad is clearly not an elite pitcher. The only other pitcher to throw at least 150 innings and post an ERA of 4.50 or higher in each of the last three years is Fausto Carmona.

But Volstad was likely not as bad last season as his 4.89 ERA might indicate. Though his ERA ranked 98th out of 107 pitchers with at least 150 innings last year, his 3.64 xFIP ranked a more palatable 34th.

One reason for the large differential between the two numbers was a homer-to-flyball ratio of 15 percent that was seventh-highest among MLB starters and nearly double his rate of 8.5 percent from last year.

Most of the damage came against lefties, who hit 19 of the 23 homers he allowed in 2011. Nearly one of every four flyballs he allowed to lefties went over the fence, a rate that was the highest among major-league starters. Last year, only one of every 10 flyballs he gave up to lefties became homers.

The primary culprit was a flatter changeup that averaged almost an inch less break both horizontally and vertically in 2011 compared to 2010, and which led to nearly a 150-point increase in slugging percentage vs his changeup by lefties.
-- Katie Sharp

Coco Crisp: Signed 2-year deal with Oakland Athletics
Crisp’s bat last year was below average (91 OPS+), but he was still a valuable part of the Athletics lineup because of his smart baserunning and penchant for making game-saving plays in the outfield.

Crisp tied for the American League lead with 49 steals and ranked sixth in the majors in Baseball Info Solution’s Net Gain baserunning stat. Crisp gained 43 bases more than the average player, combining his stolen base successes with his extra-base advancement on things such as hits, wild pitches, and sacrifice flies.

The Athletics capitalized on his speed by showing a willingness to let him run late in close games. Crisp was 10-for-12 in steal attempts that came in the eighth inning or later, with the Athletics either tied or trailing by a run. No other player had more than six steals or seven attempts.

Twice those steals led to the tying run being scored in eventual wins: April 7 against the Blue Jays and May 16 against the Angels.

Crisp has rated as an above-average defensive outfielder in terms of turning batted balls into outs over the last two seasons, but it’s his ability to make extraordinary plays at the wall that has set him apart.

Since the start of 2010, only two players have more home run robberies than the three that Crisp has: Peter Bourjos and Franklin Gutierrez both have four.
-- Katie Sharp and Mark Simon

The Boston Red Sox completed their bullpen makeover with the acquisition of a pitcher who, in certain respects, ranks among the best closers in the game, in ex-Oakland Athletics reliever Andrew Bailey.

Bailey is someone who was very comfortable pitching in his home ballpark, The Coliseum. He was 12-for-12 in save chances there last season, the fourth-most saves for any pitcher who didn’t blow a save at home last season. Bailey has converted 19 straight save chances at home dating back to May of 2010.

Bailey had great peripheral numbers at home last season-- a 27-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and did not allow a home run in 24 2/3 innings. Pitching in smaller ballparks on the road, Bailey’s numbers weren’t as good- he yielded three homers in 17 1/3 innings.

One thing that may have appealed to Boston is that in a limited sample, Bailey has pitched well against AL East opponents. In 38 career appearances against the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees, Bailey is 21-for-21 in save opportunities.

Bailey had three saves in three appearances in Yankee Stadium in 2011, though he was a little shaky, giving up four hits and three walks in three innings.

Bailey’s forte is that he is a right-handed pitcher who can get both right-handed and left-handed hitters out. He’s one of six pitchers to hold both righties and lefties to a sub-.200 batting average (minimum 300 batters faced on each side).

Over the last three seasons, lefties have only a .254 on-base percentage against him. That’s the third-best mark among right-handed pitchers, behind Neftali Feliz and Mike Adams, both now of the Texas Rangers.

Bailey’s method of getting left-handers out is to pitch them away. Bailey threw nearly two-thirds (63 percent) of his pitches to lefties on the outer third of the plate or further away, a rate that ranks among the top 15 percent among major league pitchers. The heat map atop this story shows his primary pitch location to lefties.

Pitch-wise, Bailey predominantly will throw them his fastball and cutter, with those two pitch types accouting for 85 percent of his pitches to lefty hitters last season, the third-highest combined rate for those two pitches in the majors.

The Red Sox gave up Josh Reddick, who was impressive at times for the Red Sox last season on both the offensive and defensive ends. He rated above average in advanced defensive metrics last season, with eight Defensive Runs Saved in just over 600 innings (80 games).

Sweeney has performed similarly, with his best defensive season coming in 2009, when he ranked fifth among all outfielders with 20 Defensive Runs Saved (he cost his team one run with his defense last season).

Sweeney’s strength in 2009 was turning batted balls into outs at an above-average rate, regardless of depth, which will be tested when he deals with the funky outfield gaps at Fenway Park.

After spending the past seven seasons on the East and West Coast, Carlos Beltran is headed back to the Midwest. Beltran agreed to a two-year deal with the world champion St. Louis Cardinals Thursday, according to sources. The six-time All-Star batted .300 and hit 22 home runs with 84 RBI last season with the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants.

This will be Beltran's second stint with a team in the state of Missouri. He spent seven seasons with the Kansas City Royals winning Rookie of the Year in 1999.

While he’s no longer a borderline MVP-candidate, Beltran’s track record of productivity can be matched by few in the National League since 2005. Beltran ranks sixth in the NL among position players in Wins Above Replacement over that span.

Besides his offensive and defensive skills, Beltran has a history of excelling in the postseason. No player in MLB history with a minimum 75 plate appearances has a higher OPS in the postseason than Beltran's 1.302.

With Beltran joining the Cardinals, St. Louis now has the two best offensive switch-hitters in the majors from last year. Lance Berkman's OPS was .959 last season while Beltran's was .910.

Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics traded All-Star pitcher Gio Gonzalez to the Washington Nationals for four prospects according to sources. The Nationals receive pitchers Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Tom Milone and catcher Derek Norris. Gonzalez had a career best in wins (16), ERA (3.12) and strikeouts (197) last season, but also led the league in walks (91).

Few pitchers have provided a greater value for the dollar than Gonzalez. Over the last two seasons, 13 pitchers have won at least 30 games. Of those, Gonzalez has been the most cost-effective option, earning $26,613 for every win since 2010.

Gonzalez is under team control through 2015, but he's about to get more expensive. MLBtraderumors.com projects a $4.2 million salary in 2012, the first of Gonzalez's four arbitration-eligible years.

With the acquisition of Gonzalez, the Nationals now have three pitchers (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann) who will all be age 26 or younger in 2012. They join two other franchises (Braves, Diamondbacks) who have at least three starters – all of whom were 25 or younger in 2011 - who posted a cumulative ERA better than 4.00 since the start of the 2010 season.

Much of the focus on the free agent frenzy this winter will be on the top tier of available players, such as Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes. However, there are several under-the-radar free agents that could provide significant value. Let’s take a look at a two players who had disappointing seasons on the surface, but who may be better than people think from a statistical perspective.

David DeJesus
One is former Kansas City Royals outfielder David DeJesus. Last year, DeJesus had his worst offensive season for the Oakland Athletics, setting career lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

However, some of his .240 batting average is likely a result of a .274 batting average on balls in play, well below his career mark of .316 and the lowest in a season for him.

Inside Edge does video tracking of every batted ball and discovered an interesting development for DeJesus; on balls categorized as “soft,” he hit .281 in 2010 (26-for-117), but just .136 (18-for-132) in 2011. That difference cost him more than 30 points on his overall batting average.


There were several positives for DeJesus last year, however. He showed good plate discipline, as his walk rate of 8.9 percent was just shy of his career-best, 9.1 percent in 2007.

Despite the low batting average, he still provided his usual power, with an isolated power (which measures extra-bases per at-bat) of .136 that was in line with his career mark of .137. And he was one of the best defensive outfielders, with 13 Defensive Runs Saved that was third among all right-fielders.

Chris Capuano
Chris Capuano won’t be stealing any headlines this winter, but he could be a steal for a team needing a starting pitcher to fill out the rotation. Capuano’s 4.55 ERA for the Mets was partly inflated by a .311 batting average on balls in play (career average of .300) that rose to .338 with men on base.

He also allowed a career-high 1.31 homers per nine innings, but that was affected by a career-high home run-to-flyball rate, as one out of every eight flyballs he allowed became a home run.

On a positive note, he struck out a career-best 8.1 batters per nine innings and walked only 2.5 batters per nine innings, the second-best rate of his career.

Looking just at the elements of his pitching that he can control – strikeouts, walks, home runs – and accounting for some bad luck on the flyballs he allowed, we see that Capuano pitched much better than his ERA may indicate.

His xFIP - Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that looks at strikeouts and walks, and presumes the pitcher will be league-average on his rate of fly balls per home run - was a career-best 3.66, just a few points higher than Jon Lester’s 3.62 last year.

Los Angeles Dodgers centerfielder Matt Kemp has thrust himself into the Triple Crown race by his recent hot hitting, batting .600 (15-for-25) with four doubles, three HR and eight RBI over his last six games. Kemp is trying to become the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski (.326 BA, 44 HR, 121 RBI) won it as a member of the Boston Red Sox in 1967. If he does win it, Kemp would be the first Triple Crown winner from a National League team since Joe Medwick of the 1937 St. Louis Cardinals.

To win the Triple Crown, a player must lead his league in batting average, home runs, and RBI. Kemp leads the NL in RBI (118) and is closing in on the lead in batting average (.326, four points behind Ryan Braun) and home runs (36, one behind Albert Pujols).

How rare is it for a player to be this close, this late in the season, to the Triple Crown? Since Yastrzemski won it in 1967, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Kemp is the only player to date to be within five points of the league leader in batting average (or leading), within one HR of the league leader (or leading), and within one RBI of the league leader (or leading), in the last 15 days of the season, let alone the last week of the season.

In addition to the Triple Crown, with four more home runs, Kemp will become the fifth 40-40 player (home runs and stolen bases) in MLB history. The other four are Jose Canseco (1988 Oakland Athletics), Barry Bonds (1996 San Francisco Giants), Alex Rodriguez (1998 Seattle Mariners) and Alfonso Soriano (2006 Washington Nationals).

One reason Kemp is in the race for the Triple Crown has been his ability to handle pitches up in the zone, especially since the beginning of August. Pitchers were able to limit Kemp’s effectiveness early in the season by attacking up in the zone. However, since the beginning of August, Kemp has improved his eye on pitches up in the zone, walking more and striking out less. He’s getting better pitches to hit too, as he’s been chasing less (but swinging more), and has added 120 points to his average while doubling his home run percentage.

What are the chances for Kemp to become the 12th Triple Crown winner since 1920 (the previous 11 Triple Crown winners were by nine players, Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby won it twice)? The Dodgers end the season with three games at the San Diego Padres and three at the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Since 2009, of the six potential starting pitchers Kemp will face to end the season (Wade LeBlanc, Aaron Harang, Cory Luebke, Daniel Hudson, Wade Miley and Joe Saunders), he’s had the most success against Saunders - .364 BA (8-for-22), three home runs, one double, three walks and two strikeouts.

Although he’s had success against Saunders, since 2009 Kemp is one-for-seven (a single) against Saunders in pitches up in the zone. However, you need to remember that Kemp has clearly made an adjustment late in the season against those types of pitches.

On Friday, the Detroit Tigers rode the right arm of midseason acquisition Doug Fister to defeat the Oakland Athletics, 3-1, and capture their first AL Central crown in team history and first division title since winning the AL East in 1987.

Fister, who was acquired July 30, has been on fire having rattled off a career-high five straight wins since August 20 (his previous high was three). Over that stretch he has rivaled the production of teammate and Cy Young contender Justin Verlander.

How has Fister been so successful?

While he mixed up his offspeed pitches, it was the fastball that did the damage against the Athletics. Fister changed eye level with the pitch, throwing no more than half of his heaters to a particular vertical zone. That movement resulted in the Athletics going 2 for 16 with all five strikeouts in at-bats ending with a fastball.

Fister's fortune of throwing 91 pitches in eight innings of work (11.4 pitches/inning) was helped by his ability to avoid three-ball counts. Only three Athletics hitters faced a three-ball counts and all grounded out. And despite throwing his second lowest first pitch strike percentage of the season at 48.1 percent, Fister went to a 2-0 count to just two hitters, throwing nine pitches in the game with a two-ball count.

Thanks to Fister the Tigers become the first AL team to clinch a playoff spot this season as they won for the 13th time in the last 14 games. They will be making their 13th playoff appearance and first since 2006 when they advanced to the World Series.

The Elias Sports Bureau says now that the Tigers clinched their first division title since 1987, only one American League team now has a current drought of at least that length since it last won a division title: the Kansas City Royals, who most recently finished in first place in 1985, when they went on to win the World Series.

The New York Yankees' three grand slams against the Oakland Athletics on Thursday have been well documented, but what about the team on the losing end of that 22-9 game?

The 22 runs were the most scored by the Yankees in a home game since July 26, 1931, but the A’s pitching collapse was just as rare. Oakland’s relief effort yielded 16 runs, all earned, the most by a bullpen in a nine-inning game in team history according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Bruce Billings was hit the hardest, giving up seven runs in 1⅓ innings. In 2011, that’s tied for the second-most runs allowed by a reliever in a game, behind only Vin Mazzaro, who allowed a staggering 14 runs May 16 against the Cleveland Indians.

On Thursday, Billings threw 57 pitches, including 44 fastballs. Yankees hitters totaled four hits off the heater, a pitch that has been very ineffective this season for Billings. Of his 13 hits allowed in 2011, 11 have come off his fastball, a pitch he has used more than 72 percent of the time. While batters are hitting .524 against his primary pitch (worst in MLB, minimum 100 fastballs), his slider has yielded only two hits and one walk on 33 pitches.

What Could Have Been
Imagine for a minute that the San Francisco Giants were successful in acquiring closer Heath Bell. With the potential for a healthy Brian Wilson in September, the two would have provided a formidable duo. Since Bell became a full-time closer in 2009, he has a major-league leading 124 saves. Just behind him is Wilson with 121. Third is Mariano Rivera with 110.

The Giants already have an elite bullpen. Their 2.88 ERA ranks second in the majors behind the Atlanta Braves. San Francisco’s relievers also have the second-best opponent OPS (.620) and have allowed the fewest home runs (23).

Double Trouble
Minnesota Twins reliever Alex Burnett was a bright spot this week for a bullpen that has struggled this season. In three appearances, Burnett logged four scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and no walks.

Burnett has excelled in several areas this season, most notably in his ability to throw consistently throw strikes. According to Inside Edge, Burnett throws his first pitch of an at-bat for a strike 62 percent of the time, 4 percent higher than the league average.

Burnett also has been economical -- 45 percent of his innings have been one-two-three, 10 percent higher than the average pitcher this season.