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As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare for a run to a third consecutive World Series, they enter 2010 as the favorites in the National League. But they are far from a sure thing, with questions up and down the pitching staff. In the offseason the Phils acquired former Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay to front their rotation, and expect a bounceback season from 2008 postseason MVP Cole Hamels.

But it’s 28-year-old lefthander J.A. Happ who is the One2Watch4 in Philadelphia this season.

Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA after forcing his way into the rotation at the end of May, and the Phightin’ Phils need something close to a repeat performance if they plan to be playing in October. Phillies fans shouldn’t hold their breath though, as Happ should have a more pedestrian season in 2010.

Last season, among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched, he led the league in LOB% -- the percentage of baserunners he stranded -- by a wide margin. He was one of just three pitchers with a mark over 80%, when the league average was 71.9%. Happ stranded 85.2% of his runners – and the gap between 1st and 2nd was as large as the gap between 2nd and 11th. Expect that number to drop, and likely by a significant amount.

On top of that, Happ had an unusually low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .270, the fifth-lowest mark in the league (min. 140 IP). The league average was .303, and pitchers who came in above that include NL wins leader Adam Wainwright and AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. In addition, Happ struck out fewer than 6.5 batters per nine innings, which will need to increase to keep both his LOB% and his BABIP steady this year.

Lastly, Happ led the league (min. 140 IP) by a huge margin in FIP minus ERA – the difference between his Fielding Independent Pitching and his actual Earned Run Average. FIP helps to determine how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of the defense behind him. Happ’s FIP was 4.33 while his ERA was just 2.93, a difference of nearly a run and a half! Kevin Millwood’s difference was 1.13, and only two other pitchers had their FIP more than a run higher than their ERA.

If J.A. Happ can keep his LOB%, BABIP and FIP minus ERA near their 2009 levels, the Phillies should cruise to a fourth straight NL East title. If Happ regresses to the mean in 2010, the Phillies will need the NL bump from Roy Halladay, a return to form (and regression to the mean) from Cole Hamels, and the right combination of starts from Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick to make their return to October baseball.

And that makes J.A. Happ One2Watch4.

Those who got excited by Daniel Murphy’s performance at the end of the season for the 2008 Mets had great expectations for 2009. Those have since been replaced by the anticipation for the next well-hyped Mets prospect, Ike Davis, whose Citi Field ETA has been moved up after a great spring.

But Murphy could still be One2Watch4 in 2010. Here’s why:

Let’s presume that the real Daniel Murphy is something between the machine-like hitter that fans saw for 49 games in 2008, and the oft-impatient, left field struggler-turned defensively adventuresome first baseman of 2009. The numbers (.382 BABIP) would tell you he might have been lucky in 2008. The eye test would seem to indicate he’s got the ability to rope line drives and take advantage of the big outfield in Citi Field.

The latter is something Murphy did once the pressure was off at the end of the season, and it probably helped that by that point Murphy’s comfort level at first base had improved. Under less-stressful circumstances, Murphy’s swing returned to 2008 form.

Once Murphy found his swing, he became a doubles-hitting machine. After netting 19 doubles in his first 349 at-bats, he had 19 in his last 159, a pace that if carried over for 500 at-bats, would net 60 doubles.

That total has been unreached since 1936 (Hall of Famers Charlie Gehringer and Joe Medwick). The Mets record for doubles? A mere 44 by Bernard Gilkey in 1996. That would seem to be very much in Murphy’s range if he can produce at a reasonable level. Citi Field’s park factor rating scores high for triples (20 percent more at home than on the road), but not doubles (five percent fewer), but for Murphy that’s okay. Triples for some are likely doubles for someone with Murphy’s average speed.

The other thing to watch: Murphy’s plate patience. His pitches per plate appearance dropped about 10 percent from his rookie year to his sophomore campaign. Pitchers exploited Murphy’s inability to lay off low offspeed pitches (his “chase percentage” of 39 percent was six percent worse than the MLB average).

Murphy went from walking in almost 12 percent of his plate appearances in that small sampling in 2008 to doing so in just seven percent in 2009. Over the course of the season, that’s about 25 potential times on base (and scoring chances) that Murphy and the Mets lost out on.

Lastly, keep an eye on Murphy’s defense, since he talked of working with Keith Hernandez this spring. Baseball Info Solutions charted Murphy with among the best +/- ratings in baseball, which seemed odd. Range isn’t always easy to evaluate though, so it’s certainly possible that Murphy gets to balls well. Another year of data might help make a better evaluation, though new Mets third base/infield coach Chip Hale sounds like he thinks the numbers are legit.

"Just looking at film of him this offseason, I could see how talented he was, and his feet were as good as any middle infielder," Hale said while being interviewed on a Mets spring training telecast on Saturday." When you have a guy with feet like that, you can work with him. He's been unbelievable. To me, he's been as good as you can get at first base. I think people in New York are going to be pleasantly surprised at how well he plays."

Believe this: He’s got room for improvement. Digging deeper, we found that Murphy had 32 defensive “misplays” by their scoring system (BIS charts every play of every game, using a system devised in tandem with Bill James). Only Adam Dunn collected more among first basemen. That won’t be tolerated for much longer with a bat like Davis’s waiting for a turn.

Looking for an under-the-radar fantasy possibility at second base? Then why not take a nice long look at Martin Prado? With the Kelly Johnson era at an end in Atlanta, Prado is poised to have a breakout season. Not only did Prado have a pretty decent season last year, but he should be the Braves 2B starter from day one batting in the second spot behind Nate McLouth and in front of Chipper Jones. Take a look at how some of Prado’s numbers compared with MLB and NL second basemen last year.Note the production that Prado had despite the low number of at bats. With Kelly Johnson gone and Prado cemented as the everyday second baseman fantasy owners should expect an uptick in production. In 2009 Prado was 20th among MLB second baseman with 503 Total Plate Appearances and 21st with 450 At Bats. For better or worse Bobby Cox has been known to stick with players once he’s decided that’s who he wants, so look for Prado to see a significant improvement in that category.

Reasons to be Skeptical

Unfortunately, there are some reasons to worry about Prado’s overall run production. First off, Nate McClouth hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball this spring so it appears that batting in the second hole for the Braves might often mean batting with the bases empty and one out.

Perhaps a larger worry, and the two are probably connected, should be Prado’s inability to create runs last year. In fact, Prado (5.42) lagged far behind leaders Ben Zobrist (8.12) and Chase Utley (7.98) in terms of producing runs per 27 innings in 2009. Of course it should also be noted that Zobrist and Utley were both almost two full runs ahead of their closest rival (Brian Roberts). Still, McClouth’s inconsistency coupled with Prado’s seeming difficulty in producing runs is some cause for alarm.

Other Variables

With Chipper Jones coming off one of his worst seasons of his career there are two schools of thought: he’s due to bounce back, or it’s the end of a great career. Last year Jones posted a career low in RBI and had his lowest OPS since his rookie season. Still, the fact remains that if Jones gets 600 at-bats he drives in over 100 runs and if Prado is batting in front of him than fantasy owners are going to be the beneficiary of those RBI. Furthermore, there seems to be a growing feeling in Atlanta that given the closeness between Chipper and Bobby Cox that Jones would be willing to play through some injuries that in the past may have sidelined him.

Conclusion

Prado isn’t a player that you should draft before some of the other stalwart second basemen out there like Utley, but he is a very solid option for those willing to wait a little bit longer on draft night. I look for him to continue the improvement that he had last season and for his numbers to increase in 2010.

Want to stump your friends in bar trivia? Ask them who had the most hits after the All-Star Break last season. AL batting champion and MVP Joe Mauer with 101? Nice guess, but wrong. Derek Jeter with 102? Another great guess, but also the wrong answer. With 11 more than Jeter, the leader in 2nd-half hits with 113 was Florida Marlins rookie outfielder Chris Coghlan.

Who? Here's some background info. Coghlan was a 1st-round pick as a 2nd baseman for the Marlins in the 2006 draft out of the University of Mississippi. This is the same player who wore number 72 to spring training last year and started the season in Class-AAA New Orleans. At the time, that was the highest level of his 3-year minor league career.

Coghlan was called up by the Marlins on May 8 last season and failed to disappoint. His .321 BA was easily the best ever by a Marlins rookie (including ’06 Rookie-of-the-Year Hanley Ramirez) and marked just the 8th time in the last 50 seasons that a rookie batted .321 or better. By the time his season was over, he led NL rookies in runs (84), hits (162), total bases (232), doubles (31) and on-base percentage (.390). The numbers earned him NL Rookie of the Year honors, the 3rd Marlins player to earn the honor, joining Dontrelle Willis (2003) and Hanley Ramirez (2006).

As for those 113 hits, Coghlan made plenty of history. He tied an NL rookie record for most hits after the All-Star Break, matching the number produced by Frank McCormick in 1938.

His 94 hits in August and September were the most over a 2-month span by any NL hitter since Dave Parker in 1978. He had 8 consecutive multi-hit games in August, the first rookie to do that since 1973. The .372 BA after the break was tops in the Majors, becoming only the 2nd rookie in MLB history to lead the majors in batting average after the break, joining Wade Boggs in 1982. All of this from a player who was drafted as an infielder and moved to the outfield for the first time in his career because Dan Uggla was entrenched at second base.

Of course, all of these feel-good historical notes are no guarantee that Coghlan will shine in his sophomore season. Marlins fans remember how Dontrelle Willis went 10-11 with an ERA over 4 as the reigning Rookie of the Year in 2004. Coghlan is hopeful to more closely follow in Hanley Ramirez’s footsteps, the teammate he replaced at the top of the Marlins order last year. Ramirez finished 5th in the NL in BA during his sophomore season.

In case you haven’t heard, Stephen Strasburg was optioned to the minors last week. While we expect to see the big guy in the majors at some point this season, we thought you might like to know who else we’ll be seeing on the mound for the Nationals in 2010. So, let’s take a closer look at SP John Lannan.

The Good
His ERA has decreased while his innings pitched have increased ever year he’s been in the majors, which are both good indications of a younger pitcher feeling more comfortable and getting better.Lannan also finished the year strong in September, posting a 3.58 ERA over six starts (3 of which were quality starts) and didn’t allow a home run in five of those starts. His strikeout to walk ratio was better in September (1.54) than it was for the full season (1.31) as well.Certainly not a strikeout king, Lannan showed continued control over his pitches by forcing a greater percentage of possibilities into double plays and decreasing the total number of his walks. Finally, despite the increased number of innings pitched, Lannan allowed one fewer home run in 2009 than in 2008.

All of these factors seem to trend to the positive for Lannan in 2010.

The Bad

Unfortunately it’s not all sunshine and roses for Lannan and a closer look at the numbers reveal some disturbing trends. Between 2008 and 2009 he saw an increase in his batting average against and decreases in WHIP, quality starts, strikeouts and swinging-strike percentage. In other words, he’s having trouble making people miss, which has led to more hits despite the lower ERA. The decrease in quality starts also shows that hitters are getting to him earlier in the game (slightly over 40% of his earned runs in 2009 were allowed between the 1st and 3rd innings) than they did in 2008.Of course, the argument could easily be made that Lannan is not a power guy and thus is not going to get the same number of strikeouts that other guys are going to get. While that’s true, it’s still a concern that more batters were able to get on base and that Lannan left more in the hands of his defense in 2009 than in 2008.

Conclusion

Lannan is a solid middle-of-the rotation guy, which is what he will be after Strasburg gets called up. Strasburg and Jason Marquis, who was signed in the offseason, put Lannan in a more realistic position in the middle of the Nationals rotation compared to being the ace he was asked to be last year.

The Oakland Athletics, and their GM Billy Beane, could be considered one of the biggest reasons that there are hundreds of blogs like this one on the internet right now. They're all about the hunt to find big production where there is perceived low value. While other clubs may have caught up to Oakland's "moneyball-ness" in recent seasons, it doesn't mean that Oakland can't unearth more gems as they try to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2006. This year, One2Watch4 could be Ryan Sweeney.

Sweeney is a hulking 6-foot-4 player who has been a regular starting outfielder for Oakland each of the last two seasons. Well, more hulking in stature than production. Of the 71 outfielders with 900+ PA over the last two seasons, Sweeney ranks 64th in slug pct and 66th in isolated power behind such non-sluggers like Denard Span and Jacoby Ellsbury. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Sweeney’s OPS+ the last two seasons have been 99 and 100. That’s as average as you can get.

So why keep even keep this guy around? If he’s so average, why not just give one of you minor leaguers a shot in the bigs? Turns out, Sweeney is really good at some other things besides pure power.

Despite not having the natural ability to power balls out of stadiums, Sweeney consistently finds a way to get on base. Fangraphs.com shows that Sweeney is above average at making contact and his line-drive percentage has been on the rise as a major leaguer. His OBP has consistently hovered around .350 over the last two seasons in an A’s uniform, and those are key characteristics of a money “Moneyball player”.

After returning from the DL from a sprained knee on June 18 last season, Sweeney’s splits were .324/.371/.464. Impressively, he got even better as the season went on without the benefit of Matt Holliday in the lineup after July 23. In 57 Holliday-less game, he had an .866 OPS and was entrusted with the 3-spot in the batting order down the stretch as Oakland went 35-33 in that span.

And because of his defensive prowess, Sweeney will get plenty of chances to stay in the lineup. According to data compiled by Baseball Info Solutions, Sweeney rated not far behind Ichiro Suzuki defensively among right fielders. That sampling is based on only 600 innings worth of data (Sweeney also rated among the outfield Web Gem leaders in 2009), and thus bears watching to see if he's legitimately of that caliber.

Sweeney won’t be the sexiest name you see when perusing box scores this season, but he’ll be one to keep an eye on as Oakland tries to get back to winning a majority of its baseball games.

Erick Aybar is on the move...

After hitting primarily in the second and ninth spot in the order last season, Aybar is slated to replace Chone Figgins at the top of the lineup – which makes him One2Watch4 in 2010. So what can Halos fans expect from Aybar in the leadoff spot this season?

One key part of Aybar’s offensive toolbox is his ability to lay down bunts. Last season he led all major league players with 18 bunt hits.

Aybar’s overall speed and baserunning smarts will also be an asset once he reaches base from the leadoff spot. According to baseball-reference.com, Aybar advanced an extra base (more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double) 62% of the time when possible, which ranked fourth among players with at least 550 plate appearances last season.However, there are several areas of Aybar’s approach at the plate that do not fit the typical high-walk, patient, disciplined profile of a leadoff guy:

" Aybar walked in just 5.4 percent of his plate appearances, the 17th-worse mark in the majors. The guy he’s replacing – Figgins – walked in 17.9 percent of his plate appearances, the 17th-BEST mark in the majors.

" Aybar saw just 3.47 pitches per plate appearance, the 16th-lowest rate in the majors. Not surprisingly, Figgins was one of the most patient hitters in the league, with 4.21 pitches seen per plate appearance, the 11th-BEST rate in MLB.

" Aybar swung at 36.3 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, the 5th-highest rate in the majors.

" Finally, Aybar’s first-pitch strike percentage of 65.3 percent was the highest in the majors last season.

Yet, don’t give up hope, all you SoCal halo fans out there. While Aybar chases a lot of pitches and often finds himself behind in the count, he’s proven to be resilient in those situations:

" Aybar makes contact on a whopping 79.7 percent of those pitches chased out of the zone, which ranks eighth in MLB.

" Aybar had a batting average of .314 after 0-1 counts, the 5th-best mark in the majors in those situations.

If Aybar can continue to use his speed to get on base and advance on the basepaths, while also improving his discipline and patience at the plate, he’ll be One2Watch4 as the Angels' new and exciting leadoff batter in 2010.

Seattle Mariners catcher Rob Johnson hit .213 last season, with a .289 on-base percentage and a .326 slugging percentage. He is a bad hitter in a bad offensive ballpark. And yet he's very important to the Mariners success in 2010. That's why we think he's One2Watch4.

Johnson had the best Catcher's ERA in baseball last season, 3.22. A lot of that comes from 25 starts worth of handling Felix Hernandez to the tune of a 2.01 ERA, but King Felix wasn't the only pitcher to succeed under Johnson's tutelage. Johnson was key both for the success of Seattle's most important starters, and its most important reliever.



That isn't a lot of data to work with, but the returns on Johnson's work with pitchers were enough such that when the Mariners lost Kenji Johjima, they replaced him with Josh Bard, rather than someone who might have had a higher offensive risk/reward. The Mariners went 46-29 when Johnson started, 39-48 otherwise (again, partly attributable, but not completely, to Hernandez, who elevated from very good to great) so there is a comfort level here.

The Phillies and Cardinals have each won World Series titles in the last four seasons with lineups whose everyday catchers (Carlos Ruiz and Yadier Molina) were as offensively challenged that season as Johnson was in 2009 (an Adjusted OPS+ of 65…meaning his on-base and slugging totals were 65 percent of what an average player would have posted)

But can an American League lineup afford to carry such a bat behind the plate?

We checked on the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index for everyday and quasi-everyday AL catchers who had an OPS+ of 65 or worse. There have been 121 of them with at least 300 plate appearances. The 1903 Red Sox won baseball's first World Series with one- Lou Criger.

But what of the remaining 120? History tells us that you can win a World Series with one of them, though it has not happened often. The only one of the last 13 AL World Series champs to win with a catcher of that stature is the 2002 Angels, with Bengie Molina. In fact, it’s only happened three times since Criger: Molina and the Angels, the 1987 Twins with Tim Laudner, and the 1945 Tigers with Bob Swift (who was not their regular catcher in the World Series).

The Mariners seem to be locked in pretty well at specific spots in their lineup. Catcher is one in which there is the chance that the team may want to upgrade, if it is in position to contend for a championship late in the season. That’s why this situation bears watching.

It didn't take long for Chris Davis to find success at the major league level. The Rangers first baseman burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2008 posting a .285/.330/.549 line with 17 home runs in his first 80 big league games. Expectations were high going into 2009, but Davis failed to live up to his rookie hype, sinking to a .238/.284/.442 line in 113 games while striking out 150 times. Through his first two Major League seasons, Davis is in rare air historically.

The Play Index tool on baseball-reference.com shows how historically high, or in this case low, Davis' career contact rate is. In the simplest terms, contact rate measures a hitter’s ability to put the ball in play. Davis’ contact rate is the lowest in Major League history for a player 23 or under over the course of his first two seasons played. To put it another way, nobody at Davis’ age and experience level has struck out at the rate he has. Ever. Still, despite his propensity to swing and miss, hope remains for the first baseman, especially when you compare him to some other sluggers with historically low contact rates at his age.

Eight of the nine other players on the list became All-Stars during their careers, with some ranking among the greatest home run hitters of their generation. What Davis lacks, compared to this group, is plate discipline. Davis’ career walk-to-strikeout ratio is .18, the worst of the nine players. For reference, the MLB average in 2009 was .50. Players who struggle to make contact and have well-below-average plate discipline typically don’t last long in the big leagues.

However, many of the players on the previous list made improvements in their third seasons.



Five of the players equaled or bettered their contact rate while four did the same for their walk-to-strikeout ratio. Only Reggie Jackson and Darryl Strawberry improved both. Davis has a long way to go to be compared to Jackson or Strawberry, but there are some positives to go on. After spending 44 games in Triple-A, Davis improved his contact rate by almost 20 percent, raising it from 56 percent in the first half to a respectable 73 percent after returning to the big leagues. His walk-to-strikeout ratio still sat at .19, however. With highly-regarded prospect Justin Smoak pushing for playing time at first base, 2010 may be a make or break season for Davis. Season-long improvements in his contact rate and plate discipline will go a long way in determining whether his career path rivals Pete Incaviglia or Reggie Jackson. This makes him One2Watch4.

Rookies can be enigmatic. It’s part of the process of assimilating into the big leagues. Andrew McCutchen was a great example of this in 2009. After the Pirates traded All-Star centerfielder Nate McLouth to the Braves in early June, McCutchen was called up to play centerfield and had an interesting debut season. The phenom finished the season with a .286 BA, 12 HR and a .365 OBP - very respectable numbers for a rookie and enough for him to finish 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

If 2009 was any indication, the opposition might want to pitch around McCutchen come August. On the 1st of the month, the Pirate hit 3 HR against the Washington Nationals becoming just the 5th different Pirate to accomplish the feat since 1970 (Aramis Ramirez, Darnell Coles, Bill Robinson and Willie Stargell are the others). McCutchen also drove in 6 runs in the game making him just the 4th player in MLB history to hit 3 HR and drive in 6 from the leadoff spot.

That was just the beginning to a very productive August for McCutchen. In a month with no federal holidays, McCutchen was all business. He hit twice as many homers in August as he did in the rest of the season combined.

Once August ended McCutchen went into a slump, batting just .154 and slugging .192 in his next 13 games. Just as many writers were ready to write off his season as having hit the dreaded “rookie wall”, McCutchen flipped the switch and finished on a tear, with a .463 OBP from September 16th on.

So with more big league at-bats coming in 2010, the Steel City faithful hope Andrew McCutchen can maintain his spurts of greatness over longer stretches. For a team that hasn’t been to the postseason since 1992 and hasn’t finished in the top half of the NL Central since 1999, McCutchen is one of few bright spots for the Pirates – that makes the 23-year-old One2Watch4.

Jay Bruce knows how to make a good first impression. He had one of the most memorable MLB debuts in late May of 2008, going 15-26 with three home runs in his first week as a major league player. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he was the first player since Mitchell Page of the Athletics in 1977 to reach both of those levels in his first seven days in MLB.

Bruce finished up 2008 with 21 HR and a solid .254/.314/.453 line and entered 2009 with high expectations. A quick glance at Bruce’s 2009 stats may cause some fans to think Bruce suffered a sophomore slump, as he hit just .223, which ranked 10th-worst among the 252 players with at least 350 PA last season. But digging deeper into his numbers, we see that he actually made significant progress at the plate, which makes him is One2Watch4 in 2010.

One reason for fans to expect a more productive season by Bruce this year is that he had just a .221 batting average on balls in play, tied for the second-lowest in the majors (min. 350 PA), and well below his .296 mark in 2008. Bruce’s poor BABIP was a popular topic during the season as Redleg Nation wondered why their young star was underperforming.

Because BABIP has been shown to reflect more luck than skill, we can likely expect Bruce’s overall batting average to increase in 2010 as more of his batted balls find holes in the defense and become hits. A look at his BABIP splits reveal where the improvement could come from: Bruce appeared to be especially unlucky on his flyballs and line drives hit.

But the potential for a breakout year in 2010 by Bruce isn’t just related to a reversal of his bad luck from last season – Bruce also made significant progress in his core peripheral stats from 2008 to 2009, improving his plate discipline, contact skills and power production.

1. His walk rate increased from 7.3% to 9.8% while his chase percentage dropped from 30.4% to 26.0%.

2. His contact rate rose from 71.6% to 75.9% as his strikeout rate fell from 24.3% to 19.4%.

3. His isolated power (calculated as slugging percentage minus batting average, and a measure of a hitter’s raw power through his extra bases hit per at-bat) went from .199 to .246 and he homered every 15.7 at-bats in 2009 compared to every 19.7 in 2008.

There is one potential area of concern for Bruce in 2010: according to Inside Edge, his percentage of non-fastballs seen rose from 39% in his rookie season to 44% last year, and Bruce’s hitting performance vs breaking/off-speed stuff was worse in 2009 compared to 2008.

In 2008, Bruce took advantage of pitchers mistakes with non-fastballs when he was behind the count. Against those that were located in the middle-third of the strike zone (waist-high), he was 9-for-18 with three home runs. In 2009, he actually had more at-bats of this type, but didn’t have the same magic, going 5-for-25 with one home run.

These are small sample sizes, so it will be worth watching how he handles breaking balls in the strike zone when he’s behind in the count in 2010.

The expectations are high for the Chicago Cubs entering the 2010 season. The championship drought continued in 2009, but the team returns a majority of its veteran core for another go-round. And while much of the focus will be on 3B Aramis Ramirez, OF Alfonso Soriano and SP Carlos Zambrano, the real key could be a lefty pitcher acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates last July 30. No, not John Grabow, who signed a 2-year, $7.5M deal this offseason to stay with the Cubs. Rather, it will be former top prospect Tom Gorzelanny.

Once upon a time, Gorzelanny was the young stud arm upon whom the Pirates were placing their future. After a very promising start to his career, things went south for Gorzelanny, which is how he ended up as an afterthought in a trade deadline deal. And while he might still be under-the-radar, the fact remains he flashed significant potential in a starter’s role last season. His 10.2 K-per-9 rate would have been best among lefty starters if he had qualified for the ERA title:

While Gorzelanny fell well short of the innings pitched threshold for the ERA title, it shows what he can do – no lefty starter who DID qualify reached 10.0 K/9, with Jon Lester leading the way with 9.96. And while his OPS against was noticeably higher, that is likely at least somewhat caused by the clearly elevated batting-average-on-balls-in-play. Most BABIP regress towards .300 – such a treatment for Gorzelanny would likely make his OPS against much more palatable. Regardless, the strikeout potential is there.

While it’s been a few years since Gorzelanny flashed the type of production that made him one of the assumed cornerstones of the next great Pirates team, the fact that he has at least shown the ability to be an above-average starter is more than most pitchers can say. In fact, in the last 5 years, only 4 left-handed starters age 24 or younger have posted a season with at least 200 innings pitched, 14+ wins, an ERA under 4.00. Needless to say, Gorzelanny’s potential is unique:

After a disappointing two-year tenure with the Twins, Carlos Gomez was shipped to Milwaukee this offseason in the J.J. Hardy trade. The Twins lost patience with the lynchpin of the Johan Santana deal, in part, because of his lack of patience.

During his time with the Twins, Gomez had a tendency to be overaggressive at the plate. He swung at the first pitch 42.4 percent of the time, the 4^th highest percentage in the American League.

Swinging at the first pitch isn’t always a bad idea. But it isn’t a strategy that suits Gomez’s skill set. The types of players who swing at the first pitch are often power hitters. On an 0-0 count its often a good bet that you’ll see a fastball, and power hitters can use this to their advantage. A player such as Gomez, who isn’t relied upon to drive in runs, is more valuable and will often find more success when he’s working the count.


Carlos Gomez swung at the first pitch the fifth-most often of anyone in baseball. To give his aggressive tendencies some context, take a look at the AL leaders in 1^st-pitch swing percentage over the past two seasons and each player’s slugging percentage.

Delmon Young: 47.2 (.413 slug pct)
Vladimir Guerrero 47.2 (.496 slug pct)
Josh Hamilton 46.4 (.494 slug pct)
Carlos Gomez 42.4 (.352 slug pct)
Magglio Ordonez 39.0 (.464 slug pct)

Gomez’s .352 slugging percentage is more than 50 points lower than anyone else in the top five.

But enough with the criticisms of Gomez, let’s focus on the positives and why he’s “One2Watch4.”

While Gomez’s patience at the plate was disappointing during his time in Minnesota, he did show improvement. From 2008 to 2009 his 1^st pitch swing percentage dropped by nearly seven percentage points. His percent of pitches taken also increased from 45 to nearly 49 percent. Both numbers could still improve further, but it’s a start.

Perhaps Brewers’ hitting coach Dale Sveum will be able to put the finishing touches on Gomez’s approach at the plate. Under Sveum’s guidance in 2009 the Brewers were one of the league’s most patient teams. They took 56.9 percent of pitches, the 5^th highest total in the league and the highest among non-playoff teams (the four teams above them: the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Phillies).

There’s no denying that Gomez has work to do to live up to his original expectations. His raw numbers in 2009 were less than impressive. But if Sveum and the Brewers coaching staff can continue to develop his approach to the plate, there’s reason to believe Gomez could turn things around in Milwaukee.

We’re guessing at this point that if you’re reading this blog, you’re familiar with the defensive prowess of Seattle Mariners outfielder Franklin Gutierrez. But what makes him interesting for 2010 will be what he can do on offense.

First, let’s clear something up. There’s no East Coast unfamiliarity at work here. The reason for that is Gutierrez bashed the ball against AL East teams in 2009, to the tune of a .372 batting average with six home runs in 38 games. Gutierrez made his mark against the Yankees, hitting .405 against them, including an 8-for-13 trip in his three games at the new Yankee Stadium.

It’s no surprise that Gutierrez felt comfortable at Yankee Stadium, but it is somewhat surprising how good he was at Safeco Field. His .317 batting average and .386 on-base percentage there ranked second on the Mariners behind Ichiro Suzuki and bested the average Mariner's performance there considerably. We’re not sure whether luck factored into play there (those who follow batting average on balls in play probably will say it did), but it definitely bears keeping an eye on in 2010.

Gutierrez had a two-month stretch during which he was very much worth watching. From June 18 to Aug. 11, there were few better hitters in baseball. Gutierrez hit .354 with 10 home runs and 31 RBIs in 178 at-bats during that stretch, bashing lefties for a .424 batting average (25-for-59) and fastballs at a .443 rate (43-for-97). And if you had the misfortune of being a lefty who threw Gutierrez a fastball, chances are you weren’t making out too great. He hit those at a .563 clip (18-for-32).

Abnormal performance tends to regress with time, and Gutierrez returned back to form soon thereafter, as at-bats ended in Gutierrez’s weak spot (at the knees and below) with greater frequency during the rest of the season. In his last 198 at-bats of 2009, he hit .253 with four home runs (but still a respectable .313 against lefties and .305 in at-bats ending with fastballs).

Gutierrez's goal should be to improve just a bit. Two more home runs and four more stolen bases in 2009 would have made Gutierrez a 20-20 player. Only five players in Mariners history have reached that mark, and it’s never a bad thing when you can be inserted into a list that includes Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.

According to baseballreference.com, there were 8 pitchers in baseball last season to throw over 200 innings, have a WHIP of 1.30, throw at least 1 shutout, and have an ERA+ of at least 130. Seven of them have been selected to All-Star games in their careers: Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander. The eighth player in this elite group? Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros.

Rodriguez put together his best season as a professional in 2009, setting career-best marks in starts (33), wins (14), ERA (3.02), innings (205.2), WHIP, (1.240), ERA+ (139), and K/BB ratio (3.06). In a year where the Astros’ starting rotation ranked in the bottom-4 in the National League in ERA, innings pitched and opponent OPS, Wandy gave Houston a slice of stability, and their beleaguered bullpen a slight reprieve.

Wandy’s ERA has gone down in each of the last 4 seasons: 5.64 in 2006, 4.58 in ’07, 3.54 in ’08, and a shade over 3.00 a season ago. Among pitchers to make at least 20 starts per season since 2006, Wandy is one of just three pitchers to do that: Felix Hernandez and Jason Marquis are the others.

One thing that has plagued Wandy in his young career is the disparity between his performance at home and on the road. While he’s enjoyed a 3.61 career ERA at Minute Maid Park in his 5 big league seasons, his career ERA is over 5.00 on the road. In 2007, his road ERA was a whopping 3.43 runs HIGHER than his home ERA. That number has settled some in the last 2 seasons, but the difference is still much higher than the Astros’ staff as a whole.

For reference, the difference between home and road ERA last season for the entire National League was 0.43. It’s quite amazing that a pitcher who finished in the top 10 in the league in overall ERA had a road ERA over a-run-and-a-half higher than the league’s mark.

Wandy’s trademark is the 12-to-6 curve that he uses to keep batters off-balance. What’s amazing about this is how often he throws the pitch. Rodriguez threw 1,185 curveballs in 2009 – the most in all of baseball – and it’s not even close. Rodriguez threw 327 more curveballs than the next-most-prolific tosser of the Uncle Charlie, Josh Beckett of the Red Sox.

On the strength of that one pitch, Wandy Rodriguez could be one of the best-kept secrets in the league and definitely One2Watch4 for 2010.