The Denver Broncos entered Super Bowl 50 with a 44 percent chance to win, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), but after a dominant defensive performance, the Broncos defeated the Carolina Panthers 24-10 to win their third Super Bowl.
Below are the five most impactful plays of Super Bowl 50 (as measured by ESPN's win probability model), ordered chronologically. All win probability changes are from the perspective of the offensive team (positive is good for the offense and negative is good for the defense).
6:34 first quarter: Newton fumble recovered by Broncos for TD
Win probability change: From 44 percent to 30 percent (minus-14 WPA)
9:29 second quarter: Norwood 61-yard punt return
Win probability change: From 57 percent to 69 percent (plus-12 WPA)
6:39 second quarter: Tolbert fumble recovered by Broncos
Win probability change: From 43 percent to 31 percent (minus-12 WPA)
For the second of three big turnovers forced by the Broncos, Mike Tolbert fumbled at the Denver 40, costing the Panthers 12 percentage points of win probability.
10:54 third quarter: Gano missed field goal
Win probability change: From 35 percent to 24 percent (minus-11 WPA)
On a field goal attempt that would have cut Carolina's deficit to three, Graham Gano missed from 44 yards off the right upright.
4:16 fourth quarter: Newton fumble recovered by Broncos
Win probability change: From 17 percent to 2 percent (minus-15 WPA)
Miller did it again. With the Panthers trailing by six, Miller forced a Newton fumble, which was recovered by T.J. Ward at the Carolina 9. Four plays later, the Broncos would score a touchdown to seal the victory.
Overall, the four turnovers Denver forced added 49 points of win probability.