Entering Tuesday, future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols have been struggling mightily the first two weeks of the season.
JeterStats & Info ran the numbers to try to find out why, and whether their slumps will continue. Although it’s not a large sample size, it’s enough to look at some early-season trends.
Jeter’s slow start (.206/.300/.235) is not an aberration. Although he’s 67 hits shy of 3,000, the data suggests it will take a while to reach that milestone. One reason is due to Jeter's struggles against right-handed pitchers. After hitting .311 against right-handers in 2009, that average dropped to .246 last season. So far in 2011, Jeter's hitting .154 against righties.
And, when Jeter’s at-bats end in fastballs, the results have not been pretty (see chart below).
When Jeter has made contact this season, the results have been many more ground balls than usual, which isn’t a good thing. (In general, groundballs tend to result in more outs.)
From 1995-2010, Jeter’s ground ball-fly ball ratio was less than 2:1. So far this season, it's 3.83. Although Jeter is hitting .261 on ground balls this season, recent data suggests that average will come down slightly. (Last season the MLB average when hitting a ground ball was .234.)
As for Pujols’ stunningly soft start (.150/.225/.222) is also grounded in ground balls. Normally, about 21 percent of his balls in play are line drives. This season it’s just 14 percent. His ground ball-fly ball ratio also is way out of whack: In Pujols' first 10 seasons, that ratio was 0.69:1. This season it’s almost doubled (1.18).
Pujols
Unlike Jeter, Pujols has been quite unlucky when hitting ground balls. His batting average on grounders is just .158 this season, well below last season’s MLB average -- a sign that fortune will favor Pujols going forward. However, he’s already hit into seven double plays, that’s more than 12 teams.
In fact, a look at Pujols' batting average on balls in play -- a key indicator of the role of luck in performance -- shows that he should be able to correct course soon. Pujols’ BABIP is .139, well below the National League current average of .304.
Jeter’s slow start (.206/.300/.235) is not an aberration. Although he’s 67 hits shy of 3,000, the data suggests it will take a while to reach that milestone. One reason is due to Jeter's struggles against right-handed pitchers. After hitting .311 against right-handers in 2009, that average dropped to .246 last season. So far in 2011, Jeter's hitting .154 against righties.
And, when Jeter’s at-bats end in fastballs, the results have not been pretty (see chart below).
When Jeter has made contact this season, the results have been many more ground balls than usual, which isn’t a good thing. (In general, groundballs tend to result in more outs.)
From 1995-2010, Jeter’s ground ball-fly ball ratio was less than 2:1. So far this season, it's 3.83. Although Jeter is hitting .261 on ground balls this season, recent data suggests that average will come down slightly. (Last season the MLB average when hitting a ground ball was .234.)
As for Pujols’ stunningly soft start (.150/.225/.222) is also grounded in ground balls. Normally, about 21 percent of his balls in play are line drives. This season it’s just 14 percent. His ground ball-fly ball ratio also is way out of whack: In Pujols' first 10 seasons, that ratio was 0.69:1. This season it’s almost doubled (1.18).
Unlike Jeter, Pujols has been quite unlucky when hitting ground balls. His batting average on grounders is just .158 this season, well below last season’s MLB average -- a sign that fortune will favor Pujols going forward. However, he’s already hit into seven double plays, that’s more than 12 teams.
In fact, a look at Pujols' batting average on balls in play -- a key indicator of the role of luck in performance -- shows that he should be able to correct course soon. Pujols’ BABIP is .139, well below the National League current average of .304.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
The Stats & Info blog gives you the same information that the ESPN Stats & Information Group provides to its production teams around the company. Stats & Info's content is a must-read for everyone at ESPN. On-camera talent, producers, bloggers, columnists and editors use Stats & Info insight on a daily basis. Now we're making all this knowledge available with timely, quick-hitting posts. Check this blog around the clock for notes, stats and trends, using a blend of traditional statistics and the advanced metrics we call "Next Level."
Check out available job opportunities with Stats & Info and other ESPN groups at www.ESPNCareers.com and @ESPNCareers.
You must be signed in to post a comment