Tebow pulls out win again despite low QBR
December, 12, 2011
By Alok Pattani | ESPN.com
Ron Chenoy/US PRESSWIRETim Tebow improves to 7-1 as a starter this season after leading the Broncos to their sixth straight win and third overtime win in 2011.
Tebow and the Broncos came away with another improbable comeback victory on Sunday against the Bears, rallying from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit and winning in overtime.
As is customary for him since taking over as starter, Tebow struggled early on, completing barely over a third of his passes and committing two turnovers as the Broncos were shut out for the first 55+ minutes of the game. But he was able to turn it around on the Broncos’ final three drives, leading the team to 13 points and an eventual victory.
However, if you look at Tebow’s game in total, he wasn’t actually that great. In a game that was close throughout…
- He was sacked five times and committed two turnovers (1 Int, 1 fumble)
- On eight third down pass plays, he went 3-7 with an interception and a sack, converting only two first downs
- On seven third down rush plays (including designed rushes and scrambles), he converted only two first downs
- The Broncos’ 15 offensive drives resulted in eight punts (including seven 3-and-outs), and only two made it inside the Bears’ 30
For these reasons, despite making some big plays, Tebow finished with a Total QBR of just 32.9 for the game since he did not lead the Broncos to many points.
For those who say “Yeah, but he came through in the clutch yet again!”, take a look at when and how the game was actually won and lost. The two largest impact plays of the game in terms of changes in win probability both took place in overtime:
- Marion Barber’s lost fumble took the Bears’ win probability from 63.3% to 29.8%, a decrease of 33.5%.
- Matt Prater’s game-winning 51-yd FG took the Broncos’ win probability from 70.0% to 100.0%, an increase of 30.0%.
Keep in mind that both of these plays greatly increased the Broncos’ chances of winning the game in overtime, but Tim Tebow was not on the field for either one of them.
Meanwhile Eli Manning had another clutch fourth quarter performance and finished with a 77.1 Total QBR, good for 9th best in Week 14.
After throwing one bad interception with less than seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, Manning was nearly flawless in leading the Giants back from a two-score deficit over the Cowboys.
Manning went 8-11 for 122 yards and seven first downs on New York’s final two drives (discounting the kneel at the end of the game), both culminating in touchdowns. The interception dropped his Total QBR from 79.7 to 62.8, but he was able to raise it back up to 77.1 with his clutch play in the game’s final six minutes.
For more information about how Total QBR is calculated, go here.