Revis' value makes him tough to replace
September, 25, 2012
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
U.S. Presswire/Brian SpurlockDarrelle Revis was adept at sticking to his opponents like glue.
How valuable is Revis? Consider the following:
As the chart on the right shows, since the start of last season, the Jets have allowed opponents to complete passes at a near-63 percent rate when he has been off the field.
And they’ve had no interceptions in the 126 plays he was off the field.
Since Rex Ryan took over as the Jets head coach in 2009, the team leads the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed per game (187.1), lowest completion percentage allowed (52.6) and is tied for the league lead in fewest touchdown passes allowed.
Revis has started 47 of a possible 51 games in that span (79 of a possible 83 games started in his career).
According to Total QBR, which measures all facets of a quarterback’s play and accounts for game situation, only two teams have defended opposing quarterbacks more efficiently than the Jets 43.2 rating since 2009: the Eagles (38.5 Total QBR) and Packers (40.4 Total QBR).
Revis is particularly valuable when an opponent looks to throw the ball deep. Over the last four seasons, the Jets pass defense has allowed opponents to complete only 32 percent of its throws that were at least 15 yards downfield. That’s the lowest completion rate in the NFL. The 15 touchdown passes allowed on throws of that length are also the fewest in the league.
This week, the 49ers are unlikely to exploit his absence downfield. Among qualified quarterbacks this season, only Kevin Kolb has thrown fewer passes 15 or more yards downfield than Alex Smith.
Revis has excelled at taking away the sidelines. His 13 interceptions/passes defended on throws outside the painted numbers over the last two seasons is the most in the NFL.
The 49ers are in a better position to capitalize outside the numbers. Smith has completed 67.4 percent of his passes outside the numbers this season, fourth-best in the NFL. On these throws, the 49ers have four touchdowns without an interception.
Revis leads the NFL with 98 passes defensed over the last six seasons. No other player in the league is close to that. Asante Samuel ranks second with 83.
Revis is one of four defensive backs selected to the Pro Bowl in each of the last four seasons, along with Charles Woodson, Ed Reed, and Adrian Wilson. He was named AP First-Team All-Pro in each of the last three seasons.
According to Accuscore, which runs computer simulations to make sports projections, the Jets playoff chances dropped from 54 percent to 37 percent with Revis now out. Their average win total in 10,000 simulations with Revis was 9.3. That dropped to 8.5 without him.
To hear Rex Ryan's comments on losing Revis for the season, click here.