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Likely combo makes an unlikely play

The Green Bay Packers are in the playoffs thanks to an improbable touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Randall Cobb.

How unlikely was that touchdown?

Rodgers entered that play 1 for 5 on fourth-and-eight or longer situations over the last five seasons.

The Chicago Bears sent five or more pass rushers on 16 of Rodgers’ first 40 dropbacks, including seven at Rodgers on the decisive play.

On the first 15 of those, Rodgers was 8 for 15 for 55 yards and two interceptions.

Packers QBs This Season

Rodgers was under duress on that play. He was 0 for 4 with an interception when under duress.

The Rodgers-Cobb combo has been one of the most valuable in the NFL when both were healthy.

The pair have connected on 77.1 percent of their passes since 2011, best of any quarterback-wide receiver duo with 150 attempts in that span.

Both of Rodgers’ touchdown passes to Cobb on Sunday were thrown from outside of the pocket. Rodgers has thrown a team-high five touchdowns to Cobb outside the pocket over the last three seasons, and has targeted him more than any other wide receiver.

The Bears were beaten by Rodgers and Cobb on pass that traveled 38 yards past the line of scrimmage. It was Rodgers’ first attempt 30 yards or more on the game.

This season, the Bears have allowed 8-of-15 passes (53.3 percent) thrown 30-plus yards to be completed. The league-average completion percentage on those passes is 29.6 percent.

The Packers win capped an unlikely course to postseason play. After Week 13, Numberfire’s simulations gave them only a six percent chance of making the playoffs. But from there, Green Bay’s hopes rose each week, culminating in the amazing finish on Sunday.