Sunday, February 6, 2011
Rodgers has QB edge in key scenarios
By Vince Masi
Quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers were the centers of attention all week heading into tonight’s Super Bowl. But which one has the statistical edge?
In the five statistical areas we looked at, Rodgers had a numerical edge over Roethlisberger. Let's take a closer look at those, which we figure will play a key role in the game's outcome.
This will be Aaron Rodgers' 13th career start indoors. While his record indoors is just 6-6, Rodgers has been spectacular playing inside. He has thrown 25 touchdown passes with just six interceptions and has completed 68.4 percent of his passes. No quarterback since 2008 has a higher passer rating indoors than Rodgers' 111.5.
Roethlisberger is just 5-4 in his nine career games indoors with 14 touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
OUTSIDE THE POCKET
During the 2010 regular season, neither quarterback had spectacular numbers. Roethlisberger was 17th in completion percentage and 23rd in passer rating on attempts outside the pocket. But he did not throw an interception.
Rodgers was a tad better in passer rating, ranking 21st at 72.4, and he did throw four touchdown passes, compared to Roethlisberger's zero.
In the postseason, Rodgers has been deadly accurate when stepping out of the pocket, completing 13-of-17 passes, 12 for first downs, with a passer rating of 143.5. Roethlisberger is just 5-for-10 for 62 yards.
INSIDE THE POCKET
Both of these quarterbacks have been extremely tough to stop when standing inside the pocket.
During the regular season, Rodgers was second in the NFL with a 69.3 completion percentage and 106.9 passer rating while placing third in yards per completion. Roethlisberger was just behind Rodgers in yards per attempt in this situation at 8.6 and was fourth in passer rating at 101.9.
FACING FOUR-OR-FEWER RUSHERS
These two quarterbacks practically mirror each other when they faced basic defensive pressure during the regular season. Roethlisberger's completion percentage facing four-or-fewer rushers was 66.81 while Rodgers was 66.77.
Roethlisberger had a slight edge in yards-per-attempt at 8.8 to 8.4. Rodgers meanwhile had the slight edge in passer rating-- 97.6 to 97.2.
ADVANTAGE: ROETHLISBERGER (but barely)
Rodgers led the NFL during the regular season with 16 touchdown passes in situations involving five-or-more rushers. He also had the second-highest completion percentage at 64.3 and second-highest passer rating at 109.9.
Roethlisberger was no slouch with 10 touchdown passes and just one interception, and was fifth in passer rating at 101.7. But he was just 16th in the league in completion percentage at 57.0.
It appears as though Rodgers has the edge on paper. But Roethlisberger has been in this situation before. He's 2-0 in Super Bowls in his seven-year career and with a win will join Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks in NFL history with at least three Super Bowl wins.