Monday, October 24, 2011
Tebow near the bottom for Week 7 QBR
By Albert Larcada
Week 7 saw six quarterbacks make their first start of the season and three of them including the Broncos' Tim Tebow were in the bottom four for Total QBR. Tebow's QBR was fourth-lowest among the 25 quarterbacks who had at least 15 action plays on Sunday. Only the Seahawks' Charlie Whitehurst, and the Raiders' Carson Palmer and Kyle Boller had a worse QBR.
• Career-low 18.2 Total QBR
• Major cause: Through three quarters Tebow had a 7.8 QBR. After his sack with 6:48 left in the fourth quarter his QBR fell to a game-low 6.9. The Broncos also had a game-low 1.8% chance to win based on ESPN Stats & Information's win probability model.
From there Tebow was able to lead his team on two late scoring drives to tie the game at 15-15, bringing his QBR up to 25.5. However, keep in mind this only gave his team slightly less than a 50/50 chance to win being the road team entering overtime. With the game truly in the balance in overtime, Tebow's only action play was a sack on a third down from midfield which gave the ball back to the Dolphins. The other five offensive plays the Broncos ran in overtime were all non-Tebow running plays.
So Tebow did well to get his team close to winning - as seen by his nearly 20 point QBR increase in the fourth quarter - but he did almost nothing to get the Broncos from 50/50 to 100%.
• It might seem strange that Tebow had an 18.2 QBR this week while leading his team to a victory where last week he had an 83.3 QBR while leading his team to a similar (yet ultimately unsuccessful) comeback. The obvious reason for this is that Tebow had nothing to do with the 16-point deficit he nearly overcame against San Diego, but had a lot to do with the 15-point deficit he faced against the Dolphins. Through his first 27 action plays Tebow had a 6.9 QBR. On his next 16 action plays his QBR was 96.0.
• Season-high 97.2 Total QBR
• Major cause: Brees was dominant right from the beginning. From his third pass attempt onward, Brees’ QBR never fell below 97.0. He was 12-12 on throws longer than five yards, the first qualified QB to be perfect on throws of that length this season. He was also 3-3 on throws longer than 10 yards, only the third qualified QB to be perfect on passes of that length this season.
• Brees’ performance jumps him up to the #3 position in the season-long QBR leaderboard. Brees is the only qualified QB to have a 60+ QBR in every game he has played this season.
• 77.5 Total QBR
• Major cause: Second half. Up three entering the third quarter, Newton went 8-8 for 152 yards in the second half.
For more information about how Total QBR is calculated, go here.