Monday, September 17, 2012
Eli Manning a giant in Week 2 Total QBR
By ESPN Stats & Information
After throwing three interceptions in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Eli Manning and the New York Giants were staring at a 14-point deficit late into the third quarter.
Manning was able to regroup in the final period, however, and helped engineer a Giants come-from-behind win.
During the first three quarters, Manning posted a QBR of 15.1 including a 2.0 in the second period alone.
During the fourth, Manning had a 99.6 Total QBR, tied for his best fourth quarter since 2008.
The reason behind the jump? Efficiency.
Manning’s completion percentage remained nearly the same in the final quarter (61% vs 62%) but his average yards per attempt more than doubled (7.0 vs 18.7).
Plus he threw a pair of touchdown passes, and he did not turn the ball over.
Robert Griffin III, and Andrew Luck, have both gotten off to great starts in 2012.
This season’s top-two draft picks rank first and second, respectively, in Total QBR over their first two starts among rookies since 2008.
Although Griffin and Luck have excelled beyond the rest, this season’s five rookie starters showed collective improvement across the board in Week 2 and it was demonstrated in their Total QBR.
They also compiled +36.3 points above replacement (PAR) as a group in Week 2 after posting -7.8 PAR during the opening weekend.
TOTAL QBR AND WINNING
Total QBR can be used to quantify just how important the quarterback position has become to winning in the NFL.
Looking back to previous years, the team with the higher Total QBR has won 86% of regular season games since 2008 (as far back as Total QBR goes). That is higher than the comparable mark for teams with the advantage in total yardage, turnover differential, and NFL passer rating.
Keep in mind that just because a team wins a game with a lower QBR than its opponent does NOT mean that Total QBR was “wrong” or not as good for that game.
That just means that the winning team was able to overcome its QB being outperformed by the opposing QB (on a rate basis), usually by playing better in other aspects of the game (rushing game, special teams, etc.).
Complete QBR statistics for all quarterbacks can be found here.