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Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Who will win: Pacquiao or Marquez?

By Andrew Davis and Tyler Norsworthy


AP Photo/Jae C. HongJuan Manuel Marquez is looking for his first win against Manny Pacquiao.
Manny Pacquiao will win

Manny Pacquiao is 2-0-1 against Juan Manuel Marquez according to the judges’ scorecards, but the fourth matchup will be his most decisive victory.

Pacquiao has four knockdowns and Marquez none over 36 rounds. All four knockdowns came after a jab leading into his left-handed power punch. As Pacquiao has developed and grown both as a boxer and physically, his usage of power punches has been a welcome addition to his arsenal.

In the first two fights, Pacquiao outlanded Marquez in jabs 91-78, although Marquez landed 38 more power punches (252-214).

In the third fight last November, Pacquiao outlanded Marquez in both jabs (+21) and power punches (+17). Pacquiao also outstruck Marquez in eight of 12 rounds with power punches after being outstruck 14 rounds to eight in the first two fights.

Pacquiao will be the busier fighter of the two, creating more opportunities to use his jab and set up the power punches. Pacquiao has thrown more punches in 32 of the 36 rounds, and has an output differential of 342 punches over the three fights.

Marquez is a classic counterpuncher known for his heart and tenacity, and the Pacquiao camp knows he must be the aggressor at the opening bell to win the early rounds.

Pacquiao won the first round decisively in all three fights, outstriking Marquez 34-26 with 24 of those being power punches. In Rounds 1-4 of the trilogy, Pacman landed 15 more punches and 40 percent of his power punches to Marquez’s 36 percent. Of 36 judges’ scores, Pacquiao won 23 to Marquez’s 13.

-- Andrew Davis

Juan Manuel Marquez will win

Despite three close battles with Manny Pacquiao, Mexican legend Juan Manuel Marquez has been unable to score a victory.

Marquez's strength has been with his counterpunching, opening up chances to throw power punches with his right hand. Marquez threw more than 25 power punches per round in 16 of 36 rounds, winning 11 of them (68.8 percent).

When Marquez landed at least 10 power punches in a round he won the round 72 percent of the time. If Marquez throws more than 25 power punches and lands 40 percent of them, he should have the approval from the judges.

Marquez needs to avoid a slow start. Pacquiao has thrown 146 more punches than Marquez in the first three rounds during their previous fights; an additional 16.2 punches thrown per round.

Marquez has landed just 26.8 percent of his punches in the first three rounds and has lost seven of the nine rounds, including losing Round 1 on all nine scorecards.

Despite Pacquiao throwing 342 more punches than Marquez over the first three fights, Marquez landed just 13 fewer punches. Marquez landed 31.3 percent of his punches while Pacquiao landed 26.2 percent.

Marquez needs to pick his spots to counter Pacquiao and attack with power in order to get the upper hand in the fourth encounter.

-- Tyler Norsworthy

Statistical support for this story from Compubox