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Monday, October 28, 2013
Kaepernick's efficiency keeps 49ers rolling

By Doug Clawson, ESPN Stats & Info


Ronald C. Modra/Sports Imagery/Getty ImagesColin Kaepernick is all smiles after leading the 49ers to a 42-10 win over the Jaguars in London and posting the highest QBR in three years.
As a reminder, Total QBR is a quarterback rating that takes into account all of a QB’s significant contributions (passing, rushing, sacks, fumbles, penalties) to his team’s scoring and winning and summarizes them into one number on a 0-100 scale, where 50 is average. Since 2008, the team with the higher QBR has won about 85 percent of the time. Complete QBR statistics for all quarterbacks can be found here.

Kaepernick on a tear
Colin Kaepernick had a 99.8 Total QBR Sunday, the highest QBR by any player since Michael Vick (99.8) in 2010 against the Washington Redskins (min. 20 action plays).

With efficient performances against the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars, Kaepernick is the first quarterback to have back-to-back games with a Total QBR over 99.0.

How Kaepernick did it with only 1 Pass TD:
When it counted: 49ers' halftime win probability was 94.2 percent vs Titans and 98.4 percent vs Jaguars.

Kaepernick’s first-half stats –
Passing: 16-24, 248 yards, TD
Rushing: 11 rushes, 105 yards, 3 TD, 7 first downs (excludes 1 kneel)

Third-down rushing: 9 rushes for 96 yards and 2 TD, excluding kneels (Andrew Luck is only other QB with 2 Rush TD on third down this season)

Few mistakes: 3 total negative plays excluding kneel downs (2 sacks, -1 yard rush) and 0 turnovers.

Win probability on the Lions' comeback
- After Stafford’s fourth-down incompletion with 1:33 left in the fourth quarter – 1.9 percent
- Start of Lions final drive (1st and 10 at own 20, 1:02 left) – 7.5 percent
- Win probability swing on Stafford’s 1-yard Rush TD - +22.0 percent

2013 Manning vs 2007 Brady
Peyton Manning is on a torrid pace at the halfway point in the season, throwing 29 touchdown passes in eight games.

If you compare Manning to Tom Brady through eight games in 2007, however, he is coming up short in completion percentage, touchdowns and QBR.

Not the same Brady this season
Tom Brady posted a 49.9 Total QBR in Sunday’s win, actually raising his Total QBR to 48.6 this season (50 is an average Total QBR for a season).

His Total QBR ranked in the top 3 in the league each of the past three seasons, but is in the middle of the pack this season.

Patriots-Dolphins: Tale of two halves
The New England Patriots’ win probability dipped to 4.4 percent with the Miami Dolphins having 1st and 10 at the New England 27 and leading 17-3 with 11:27 remaining in the third quarter.

The Patriots stormed back from that point after a Dolphins missed field goal and ensuing mistakes. Ryan Tannehill had an 86.7 Total QBR at halftime but finished at 29.8 after three second-half turnovers.

Stafford clutch in second half
Matthew Stafford had a Total QBR of 97.6 in the second half Sunday, the second-highest of any second half in his career.

Stafford's Total QBR was 3.3 in the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys, compared with 95.9 in the other three quarters.