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Monday, December 2, 2013
Manning shows he has Chiefs' number

By ESPN Stats & Info


AP Photo/Ed ZurgaPeyton Manning threw four of his five touchdown passes to Eric Decker

Peyton Manning had a 97.2 Total QBR Sunday, his highest in a game since Week 17 last season, also against the Chiefs (99.0). Manning has posted a Total QBR above 90.0 in 13 games in the two seasons since he joined the Broncos, easily the most in the NFL. Russell Wilson (8) is second, and Tom Brady (6) is third.

Manning’s Total QBR and the Broncos’ win probability swung dramatically with two straight passes in the 3rd quarter. His 37-yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker making the score 21-21 sent his Total QBR from 76.4 to 90.6, and the Broncos’ win probability went up 16.8 percentage points.

Manning’s next throw was a 77-yard pass to Demaryius Thomas, raising his Total QBR from 90.6 to 95.3 and the Broncos’ win probability by 20.4 percentage points.

Chiefs defense disappears
The Chiefs’ defense was riddled by Manning and the Broncos’ offense Sunday. The Chiefs allowed 535 yards, their second-worst total in the past 20 seasons. All five of the Broncos’ touchdown drives covered 70 yards or more. The Broncos averaged 8.1 yards per play, the fifth-most the Chiefs have allowed in the past 20 seasons.
Based on expected points added -- which takes into account everything a defense does to affect the score, including keeping the opponent from moving the ball, scoring points and forcing turnovers –- the Chiefs had their worst one-game defensive performance in the 8 seasons for which we have expected points data. Sunday’s -27.8 defensive expected points beat the team’s previous low-water mark of -25.0 – set the week before against the Chargers.

Geno in bad company
Geno Smith's Total QBR was 1.6 in Sunday's start and is 3.8 over his last 5 starts. He has made 5 straight starts with a Total QBR under 15.0. Since 2006, only JaMarcus Russell has a longer streak.

Colts not the same without Wayne
Andrew Luck had a 37.1 Total QBR in Sunday’s game, just below his average performance without Reggie Wayne in the last 5 games. Although the Colts are 3-2 in those games, the offense has contributed -1.0 expected points per game without Wayne (-5.3 Sunday), 23rd in the NFL. In 7 games with Wayne, the Colts’ offense averaged 7.4 expected points added, 5th in the NFL.

Brady leads another comeback ...
The Patriots have overcome a double-digit deficit and minuscule win probability at halftime in 2 straight games thanks largely to Tom Brady. After the 2nd half in those games (4 quarters of play plus OT), Brady has completed 75 percent of his passes with more than 500 passing yards.

Other than Stephen Gostkowski’s tying and go-ahead field goals, the play that improved the Patriots’ win probability the most Sunday started with Brady. His 9-yard touchdown pass to Shane Vereen with 8:06 left in the third quarter gave the Patriots their first lead (21-17) and increased their win probability by 9.6 percentage points to 65.9%.

The Patriots began that drive with a 35.2% win probability. Brady was 5 of 6 for 70 yards on the drive, adding 28.5 percentage points to the probability.

... and Texans blow another lead
The Texans lost their 3rd game this season after leading by double digits, all at home. In each game, the Texans' win probability was greater than 85% at halftime. According to Elias, the last team to lose more games at home in a season when leading by double digits was the 1980 Buccaneers (4).