ESPN More Sports

A quick preview of Game 6 of the National League Championship Series between the San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies.

Roy Oswalt and Jonathan Sanchez will take the mound Saturday in a rematch of Game 2. Oswalt is 10-0 in his career at Citizens Bank Ballpark, combining regular and postseason. The only other pitcher to win his first 10 decisions in that park is Clay Condrey (10 straight).

And Oswalt has won the only Game 6 he previously pitched in, beating the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS to clinch the series.

In Game 2 in Philadelphia, Oswalt went eight innings, allowing just three hits and striking out nine, including Andres Torres all four times he faced him. The only run he allowed came on a Cody Ross home run. Ross has a hit in six straight games, the longest in the postseason by a Giant since Kenny Lofton’s six-game streak in 2002. The last seven-game streak came that same year, courtesy of J.T. Snow.

FROM THE ELIAS SPORS BUREAU: Pat Burrell hit two home runs this season when the Giants played in Philly, giving him 76 during the regular season at Citizens Bank Park, the highest total for any right-handed batter.

The Phillies lost Game 4 when neither starter finished the fifth inning and it turned into a matchup of bullpens. With a day off yesterday, the Phils should be able to stick to their big guns. Jose Contreras, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge are Charlie Manuel’s most trusted relievers, and they’ve shown up big time in the playoffs. In 13 2/3 innings combined this postseason, they’ve allowed only four hits and no runs, with almost four times as many strikeouts as walks (15/4).

Left-hander Jonathan Sanchez gets the ball for the Giants tonight. Chase Utley (1-for-12 with a single) and Jayson Werth (0-for-9) are a combined 1-for-21 (.048) against left-handed pitching this postseason.

Utley had a .581 slugging percentage against lefties during the 2010 regular season, the highest of his career. But Werth's .287 batting average versus lefties in 2010 was his lowest in his four seasons with the Phillies.

In Game 2, Phillies lefties were 2-for-7 with two walks against Sanchez, while righties went 3-for-17 with a walk and four strikeouts.

After striking out three times in Game 5, Ryan Howard has eight career three-strikeout games in the postseason, the most in major league history. Next on the list is Reggie Sanders, the only other player with six such games.

However, in Game 2, Howard went 2-for-2 against the left-handed Sanchez, walking once and not striking out. Howard is 5-for-16 in his career against Sanchez with four extra-base hits.

A capsule stat-based preview of the Braves-Giants NLDS matchup

Top things to know

The Braves-Giants National League Division Series matchup will feature two of the best pitching squads in the National League. The combination of these elite pitching units and average-to-below average offensive lineups sets this series up to be arguably the lowest-scoring of the four.

The Giants ranked second in the National League in both starters’ ERA (3.54) and relievers’ ERA (2.99), while the Braves were fifth among starters (3.80) and third among bullpens (3.11). Both teams were consistently near the top of the ranks throughout the season, but the Giants’ run at the end of the season could prove to be the difference. During the crucial month of September – in the midst of the postseason meat grinder that became the NL West – the Giants posted a 1.78 ERA, holding batters to a paltry .182 batting average.

Deciding factor

The Braves lack of offense is not breaking news, but it’s the lack of power that could be most critical in this series. Both Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain posted the highest home run rates of their careers in 2010, making them arguably more susceptible to the homer than they’ve been in previous years.

Unfortunately, the Braves are sorely lacking power. They have the lowest isolated power (.143) and slugging percentage (.401) of any postseason team. Specifically, the team’s two best power sources – Brian McCann and Jason Heyward – have each seen their power go out down the stretch. McCann (2 HR, .326 slug pct) and Heyward (2 HR, .385 slug pct) both struggled in September and October, mirroring the team's season-long lack of power, and one that could spell trouble for the Braves.

Most interesting matchups

Two of the most compelling figures in this matchup are Braves closer Billy Wagner and Giants catcher Buster Posey. In his final season in the majors, Wagner put together arguably his best campaign, posting his highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) mark since 2003. In addition, among those with at least 50 innings pitched in 2010, Wagner ranked second in the National League in strikeout rate at 13.5 K per 9, behind only Carlos Marmol.

Wagner was incredibly dominant versus left-handed batters, limiting them to a .071 batting average – just four hits in 56 at-bats - and a tiny .246 OPS. No home runs. No extra-base hits. Against right-handers, however, Wagner surrendered five home runs in 183 at-bats. That is certainly solid work, but noticeably less than his performance against lefties. This sets up a potential late-inning showdown between the southpaw Wagner and the right-handed Buster Posey. Posey dominated lefties this season, hitting .309/.367/.588 against them, with an OPS increase of over 120 points from his marks against righties. The two have faced each other just once – with Wagner forcing him into a groundout – but the postseason could bring a different result.

Statistical secrets

While much of the focus on the Giants offense centers around Posey and Aubrey Huff, perhaps the most dynamic player for the Giants was Andres Torres. A journeyman throughout his career, Torres blossomed in 2010 and his overall package made him one of the most valuable players in baseball.

Despite remaining under the radar for much of the season, Torres ranked second among National League outfielders in WAR – behind only Matt Holliday – and ahead of darlings such as Carlos Gonzalez, Jayson Werth and Heyward. A significant portion of that value was derived from his defense. He ranked first among all outfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating, a potential key advantage given the spacious parks at which this series will be played.

The fact that he missed nearly two weeks after undergoing an appendectomy, yet after returning to the lineup still hit two homers in eight games during the heat of a postseason race, is just another checkmark in his favor.

SIG's Picks

Albert Larcada of ESPN Stats and Info did statistical analysis of the last 10 postseasons, looking for the factors that most separate winning and losing teams. He found three: power hitting, front-end starting pitching and the ability to turn batted balls into outs. Using his findings, he was able to make a projection.

The Giants meet all necessary criteria for a good playoff team. Outstanding front-end starting pitching, the best defensive efficiency in the NL, and decent enough power from their bats. For the Braves-Giants matchup, Larcada's system picks the Giants in four games. He gives the Giants a 58.8 percent chance to win the series overall.

Want a reason to watch the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball at 8 ET on ESPN2?

How about the idea that you might get to watch some pitching history. People have been calling this season The Year of the Pitcher, but perhaps the year of the great pitching performance is more apt.

There have been 25 games this season in which a team managed no hits or one hit. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that’s one shy of the all-time major league record, set in 1988.


The kicker is that both starting pitchers tonight -- Jonathan Sanchez and Hiroki Kuroda -- have thrown one-hitters this season. Kuroda did it in his last start against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies lineup, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning before settling for a shared one-hitter with Hong-Chih Kuo.

It’s part of a stretch of nine starts in which Kuroda has held opponents to a .193 batting average and .520 OPS, yet somehow Kuroda is just 3-4 with a 2.56 ERA in that span. That’s what happens when your team totals just 21 runs of support in those games.

Sanchez’s one-hitter came in an odd situation -- a 1-0 loss to the San Diego Padres on April 20 in which he yielded just a Chase Headley single, but was done in when the lone run scored on a sacrifice fly. Sanchez already has a no-hitter to his credit against those same Padres last season.

If there is a one-hitter to be had tonight, it’s more likely to be for the Dodgers than the Giants, for two reasons:

First, Sanchez is 0-5 with a 6.04 ERA against the Dodgers, the second-worst mark against them for any active pitcher (Jorge De La Rosa is 0-6). His ERA is the second worst of any Giants pitcher who has thrown 40+ innings against the Dodgers since the teams moved to California in 1958.

Second, the Giants haven’t thrown a one-hitter against the Dodgers since 1973.

But Sanchez’s .215 opponents batting average rates among the best in baseball, and the Dodgers offense rates among the most inept in the majors since the All-Star break. Perhaps the Giants are due.

Four other reasons to watch, with some help from our game researcher, Katie Sharp:

• Rafael Furcal is a Giants killer
He’s hitting .324 against the Giants as a Dodger, third-best among anyone since the two teams moved westward in 1958.


• The Dodgers like small ball
Los Angeles leads the National League in sacrifice bunts, and with the help of Baseball-Reference.com, we know the Dodgers lead in bases taken via fly balls, wild pitches, passed balls, balks and defensive indifference. They’ve also taken an extra base on 45 percent of the opportunities they’ve had, matching the Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds as the most aggressive teams in the league.

• See an unknown star
If you’re a fan of some of these new sabermetric statistics, you’ll like Andres Torres, who, primarily on the strength of his defensive rating, is fourth in the NL in Wins Above Replacement. His “Ultimate Zone Rating” (a gauge of ability to turn hit balls into outs, avoid errors, and serve as a base-running deterrent) rates higher than any outfielder in the league.

• You're going to see a close one
Of the 14 games the teams have played this season, 11 have been decided by two runs or fewer, including the last seven.

We checked with the Elias Sports Bureau, which tells us this is the first time that the Giants and Dodgers have had a season in which they played seven straight games that were that close since 1928, and they have never played eight straight games in the same year, decided by two runs or fewer.

Maybe tonight's the night for some history.

In the Colorado Rockies' come-from-way-behind 12-10 victory Wednesday afternoon against the Atlanta Braves, their win probability (based on teams throughout history in similar situations) dipped as low as 1.2 percent in the fourth inning:

• The Rockies trailed 3-0 after the top of the first, meaning their win probability was 28.9 percent even before they came to bat.

• After the top of the second, the Rockies trailed 7-0 - a win probability of 7.0 percent.

• When Omar Infante homered in the third inning to give the Braves a 10-1 lead, the Rockies' win probability fell to 2.2 percent.

• With the score still 10-1, Brian McCann doubled leading off the top of the fourth, and the Rockies' win probability dipped to its lowest point at 1.2 percent.

• Trailing 10-6 in the sixth inning, the Rockies' win probability sat at just 15.5 percent until a Ryan Spilborghs two-run double increased it to 30.8 percent, cutting the score to 10-8.

• The Rockies' win probability did not get above 30.8 percent until the eighth inning, when Carlos Gonzalez’s two-run single tied the game at 10. The Rockies win probability jumped all the way from 24.9 percent to 61.2 percent with the hit.

• When Troy Tulowitzki followed with the go-ahead single to make it 11-10, the Rockies' win probability went up to 84.9 percent, and increased to 93.1 percent with Todd Helton’s RBI single providing the final run.

• The Rockies' win probability did not dip below 90 percent from that time forward as they closed out the Braves in the 9th.

The Cincinnati Reds' 12-11 victory over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday featured several win probability swings:

• The Reds scored four runs in top of the first inning and had a win probability of 82.4 percent before the Giants even came to bat.

• After the Reds scored four more runs in the third inning to take an 8-1 lead, their win probability stood at 96.4 percent.

• When Homer Bailey singled to give Cincinnati a 10-1 lead in the fifth inning, the Reds' win probability was all the way up to 99.5 percent, its highest point until the game was over.

• The Giants cut the lead to 10-5 after six innings, but the Reds' win probability was still high at 97.4 percent.

• Even when Juan Uribe homered in the eighth to make it 10-8, the Reds still had a win probability of 85.2 percent.

• The biggest win probability jump of the game occurred on Andres Torres’ eighth-inning double, which tied the game at 10 and knocked the Reds’ win probability from 65.3 percent down to 26.2 percent.

• When Aubrey Huff’s sacrifice fly in the eighth gave the Giants an 11-10 lead, the Reds' win probability fell to 14.6 percent.

• The Reds entered the 9th inning trailing 11-10. After Ryan Hanigan flied out leading off the top of the inning, the Reds' win probability was at its lowest point at just 8.3 percent.

• After Drew Stubbs reached second base on an error, Paul Janish’s game-tying single in the 9th took the Reds' win probability from 21.9 percent up to 56.1 percent, the third-biggest jump of the game.

• The Reds took a 12-11 lead in the 12th inning on a Joey Votto single, which brought the Reds win probability from 48.1 to 84.9 percent, the second-largest win probability movement of the game.

• Torres came to bat in the ninth inning with runners on first and third and two out, with the Giants trailing 12-11. The Reds’ win probability was at 80.9 percent at this juncture. Torres grounded out to end the game, bringing the Reds’ win probability to 100 percent.

Forget about Shark Week, it's blowout week in baseball. We've now had an MLB game decided by 10+ runs for 6 straight days. The Elias Sports Bureau tells us that the last time this happened was from August 22-27, 2007.

Friday: Rockies 17, Cubs 2
Saturday: Cardinals 11, Pirates 1
Sunday: Diamondbacks 14, Mets 1
Monday: Brewers 18, Cubs 1
Tuesday: Astros 18, Cardinals 4; Giants 10, Rockies 0; White Sox 12, Tigers 2
Wednesday: Cubs 15, Brewers 3

Here are some more recaps from today's afternoon action on the diamond.

NL
Rockies 6, Giants 1
Ubaldo Jimenez tied a Rockies' franchise record with his major-league leading 17th win. He improves to 8-0 at home, and is 13-1 this season following a Colorado loss. Carlos Gonzalez (22, 23) had hit first career multi-HR game, and has six HR in his last seven games. Troy Tulowitzki added his 10th HR of the season, and first since coming off the DL. The Rockies have won 5 of 6 following their 8-game losing streak. The loss snaps a 4-game win streak for the Giants, who allowed as many runs as they had in the previous 4 games combined. Madison Bumgarner lasted only 4 innings, the shortest outing of his career.

Andres Torres (SF): 0-for-4, 4 K
•  First Giants player this season to record a game of 4+ strikeouts and no hits.
•  First since Fred Lewis on April 15, 2009.
•  Only one Giant has done it twice since 2000 - Aaron Rowand.
•  There are now only three teams in the MLB who have not had a player with 4+ strikeouts and no hits in a game this season: White Sox, Indians, Tigers.

Cubs 15, Brewers 3
Cubs score a season-high 15 runs and snap their season-worst 7-game losing streak. It is the most runs they have scored since August 14 of last season. Aramis Ramirez hits his second career pinch-hit HR (1st since 2002 with PIT). Starlin Castro has first career four-hit game while Geovany Soto gets his 3rd career 5-RBI game. Ryan Dempster improves to 14-3 career vs the Brewers.

Reds 9, Pirates 4
The Reds break game open with 6-run 7th inning including RBI doubles by Joey Votto and Jonny Gomes, an RBI triple by Laynce Nix and a 3-run HR by Paul Janish. It is the 15th time Cincinnati scores at least 9 runs this season. All four Pittsburgh runs were scored on home runs. Johnny Cueto allows 1 run and 3 hits in 6 innings to improve to 9-2 career vs the Pirates and 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA in his last 8 starts. Jeff Karstens falls to 0-4 career vs Reds and is 0-5 in his last 8 starts.

AL
Yankees 5, Blue Jays 1
Alex Rodriguez becomes the 7th player to hit 600 career HR when he hit a 2-0 fastball off Shaun Marcum in the first inning to center field. Rodriguez is the youngest to reach 600 HR (35 years, 8 days). Rodriguez snapped a streak of 46 at-bats since his last homer, the longest homerless streak ever between home run numbers 599 and 600. The homer came on the 3-year anniversary of his 500th HR, which was also in the first inning and also at Yankee Stadium and also in a game started by Phil Hughes. Derek Jeter (4-4, two doubles) has his 35th career 4-hit game, passing Joe DiMaggio and Bernie Williams for 4th-most 4-hit games by a Yankee in the live-ball era (since 1920). The Yankees snap their 3-game losing streak, which matched their longest of the season.

A's 4, Royals 3
Brett Anderson picks up his first win since May 29 and goes 7 innings, his longest outing of the season. After giving up 2 runs in the first, A's pitchers held the Royals to 1 run on 3 hits the rest of the way. Michael Wuertz struck out the side in the 9th to notch his 4th save, tying a career-high. The A's have won 11 of their last 14 against the Royals. The Royals have lost 8 of their last 10 on the road. Jose Guillen (0-4) falls to 3-41 (.073) in his last 11 games. Wuertz struck out the side in the 9th to notch his 4th save, tying a career-high.

There were seven ejections Tuesday, which is the most this season. Here's a recap of players and managers who got to take an early shower:

- The Yankees Joe Girardi was ejected by Paul Emmel in the bottom of the 5th for arguing a safe/out call.

- The Pirates John Russell was ejected by D.J. Reyburn in the bottom of the 6th for arguing.

- The Dodgers Bob Schaefer was ejected by Adrian Johnson in the bottom of the 6th for arguing.

- The Dodgers Clayton Kershaw and Joe Torre were ejected by Adrian Johnson in the Top of the 7th because Kershaw hit the Giants Aaron Rowand after both teams were warned.

- The A’s Coco Crisp was ejected by Bob Davidson in the Bottom of the 10th for arguing.

- The Red Sox’s John Farrell was ejected by Bob Davidson in the bottom of the 10th for arguing a check swing.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last time seven or more players and managers were ejected on the same day was May 15 of last year.


The Joe Torre ejection in the Giants-Dodgers game in part led to the Giants beating the Dodgers 7-5. Bench coach Don Mattingly - thrust into the manager's role after Torre was tossed - was charged with two trips to the mound, despite leaving the dugout only once. With the Dodgers leading 5-4 in 9th, the Giants had the bases loaded with one out. Mattingly went to the mound to discuss strategy. Mattingly left the mound and headed back to the dugout, but then stepped back on the mound when James Loney asked him a question. This constituted two trips to the mound, forcing closer Jonathan Broxton out of the game. With no time to warm up, George Sherrill's gave up a double to the left-center gap by Andres Torres, giving the Giants a 6-5 lead.

It's that time of year again: the time for hand-wringing about the way Major League Baseball selects its All-Star position players. Is there a way beyond all the gnashing of teeth about the alleged silliness of fan voting, stuffing the (virtual) ballot box, and so on? Maybe not. But there are more objective methods of measuring overall player value available to the public than in the past. Bloggers have come up with some ingenious suggestions for using multiple seasons or even full-blown projections to generate “true talent” All-Star teams, but let's take a more simple approach using FanGraphs' implementation of Wins Above Replacement to see what players have been the most valuable at each position in the league so far this season (as of June 22).


Joe Mauer is having a good season (if slightly disappointing for him) and just barely squeaks ahead of Victor Martinez. Mauer's teammate Justin Morneau, on the other hand, is having a season even Albert Pujols would be proud of. Robinson Cano is stepping out from the shadows of more celebrated Yankees by having a dominant season at the plate and being above average in the field. Marco Scutaro is having a well-rounded season at shortstop, even if his presence is also a testimony to the relative weakness at that position in the American League this season.

This is about what we've come to expect from Evan Longoria, and given that he is only partially through his third season, that we have such high expectations for him says as much about him as any other superlatives. Fellow Ray Carl Crawford is having a good year even by his lofty standards, and Alex Rios, coming off a disastrous 2009, looks like one of the best outfielders in baseball. Two Rangers round out the All-WAR AL All-Stars: Josh Hamilton is the third outfielder mostly on the strength of his recent offensive outburst, and Vladimir Guerrero still has enough left in the tank to outhit the rest of the primary DHs in the AL.

There isn't as much competition among the NL catchers, and Brian McCann is clearly the class of that group this season. Adrian Gonzalez, not surprisingly, is a major part of the Padres' current revival. Chase Utley is having a down season relative to his usual standard, but it's more than enough to be the best second baseman in the National League. Troy Tulowitzki is currently leading all NL shortstops but is also out for a couple of months, and Hanley Ramirez is right behind him at 2.2 WAR. Ryan Zimmerman is having another excellent year behind the veil of Strasburg mania. Marlon Byrd is playing less like the stopgap everyone thought he would and more like, well, an All-Star. Matt Holliday is the second best outfielder so far in the National League; despite not really having heated up with the bat yet, UZR is impressed with his glovework (in a small sample size).

The big surprise on the WAR leaderboards is the Giants' Andres Torres, a capable player, but not someone one would have seen as an All-Star before this season, in which he has played well on both sides of the ball. There aren't any “primary DHs” in the National League, of course, but Albert Pujols has been the most valuable hitter in the National League other than Gonzalez so far, and really, it would be laughable to have an All-Star Game without the best player in baseball, wouldn't it?

Matt Klaassen is a writer for FanGraphs.