Stats & Info: Andrew McCutchen


Scott Rovak/US PresswireCarlos Beltran is one of the reasons the Cardinals lead the National League Central this season.
(The Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 8 ET on ESPN)

The post-Albert Pujols era is in its first season in St. Louis, and right now the Cardinals do not appear to miss the second-most prolific home run hitter in franchise history.

In fact, the Cardinals are in first place in the National League Central thanks in part to some savvy offseason moves.

Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal have been two of the three most effective free agent signings. Beltran’s 1.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is tied with Kelly Johnson for the highest this season among 2012 free agent signings. Furcal is third with a 1.8 WAR.

In fact, Beltran and Furcal are part of an interesting 2012 trend: rejuvenation of older players once thought to be done.

• Carlos Beltran (35) Leads NL in home runs (hasn’t hit 30 HR since 2007)
• Rafael Furcal (34) .351 BA ranks 4th in NL (.231 BA in 2011; didn’t play 100 games in either of last 2 seasons)
Derek Jeter (37) .355 BA ranks 3rd in AL (hit .282 in previous 2 seasons)
David Ortiz (35) 3rd in AL in OPS and 4th in BA (hit .257 from 2008-10)
Paul Konerko (36) .367 BA is 2nd in AL (hit .240 in 2008)

Beltran has 13 home runs through 40 games, the most he’s ever hit in his team’s first 40 games. (Before 2012, the most HR Beltran hit in his team’s first 40 games was 11 in 2004.) In addition to leading the National League in home runs, Beltran ranks fifth in OPS (1.036).

He’s also two stolen bases from becoming the eighth player in major-league history with 300 HR and 300 stolen bases. With a .861 career OPS, he’d join Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds as the only 300-300 players with an .850 OPS.

As good as Beltran has been, Furcal has been just as impressive. He’s hitting .400 this month, which is the fourth-highest NL average in May behind David Wright (.436), Andrew McCutchen (.420) and Carlos Ruiz (.411) Furcal also is one of the best NL hitters with two strikes. His .293 average with two strikes is third in the National League.

One part of Furcal’s success is that he isn’t so pull happy. Last season, Furcal pulled 42 percent of all balls that he put in play. In 2012, that percentage is down to 34 percent.

Furcal and Beltran are also two of the most prolific active switch hitters. Beltran ranks third among active players with 1,956 hits and Furcal is sixth with 1,739.

Hamilton hammers way into record book

May, 8, 2012
May 8
10:44
PM ET
ESPN Stats & InformationEntering Tuesday's game, all 10 of Josh Hamilton's home runs this season were on pitches from the middle of the plate in. Against the Orioles, all four of his record-tying homers came on pitches on the outer third or away.
Josh Hamilton became the 16th player in major-league history to hit four home runs in a game as the Texas Rangers beat the Baltimore Orioles 10-3.

The first quarter of the 2012 MLB season has been a good one for historians, with Hamilton’s four-homer game and Philip Humber’s perfect game. This is the first year in MLB history when there has been a perfect game and four-homer game in the season.

Hamilton became the first American League player to go 5-for-5 with four home runs. His 18 total bases are an AL record, surpassing the previous mark of 16 that was done eight times. He fell one base short of Shawn Green’s major-league record of 19 during his four-homer game in 2002.

Hamilton and Matt Kemp each have at least 12 home runs within their team’s first 30 games. It is the first time since 2006 that at least two players did that in the same season. In the 13 seasons from 1994 to 2006, it happened in nine seasons. Prior to that, it hadn’t happened since 1971, when Hank Aaron and Willie Stargell both pulled it off.

With 14 home runs in the Rangers' first 30 games, Hamilton broke the franchise record for homers at this point in the season. Frank Howard hit 12 home runs in the first 30 games in 1968, when the franchise was still the Washington Senators. Since the franchise moved to Texas in 1972, no other player had hit more than 11 homers in the team’s first 30 games.

Hamilton is already more than halfway to his total of 25 home runs from last season. His third-inning home run was his first of the season to the opposite field. He had 13 opposite-field home runs over the previous three seasons.

All four of Hamilton’s homers came with Elvis Andrus on base, netting a total of eight RBI for the game. That is tied for the third-most RBI in a four-homer game, trailing Mark Whiten’s 12 in 1993 and Gil Hodges’ nine in 1950.

It is often said that baseball's glamor position is centerfield, and the best hitters bat third in the order. During the live-ball era (since 1920), only two players have been 4-for-4 or better with three homers and four extra-base hits while playing center and batting third. Hamilton joins Ty Cobb, who went 6-for-6 with three home runs and a double on May 5, 1925.

Around the diamond
• Before he left the game with left hamstring tightness, Will Middlebrooks became the second player since 1900 with an extra-base hit in each of his first five career games. Elias reports that Enos Slaughter also had a five-game streak to start his career in 1938.

• Andrew McCutchen hit his first home run of the season in his 95th at-bat. Last season he had five home runs at the same point in the season.

• Curtis Granderson has reached base in 28 consecutive games, the longest streak in the majors this season. He extended the streak today against James Shields. Granderson entered the game 3-for-46 against Shields; according to Elias, that .065 average was the lowest career mark in any batter-pitcher matchup between active players (minimum 35 at-bats).
It’s a remodeled Andrew McCutchen who is poised to sign a six-year, $51.5 million contract extension with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The new deal – the biggest put together by the Pirates since catcher Jason Kendall’s six-year, $60 million contract signed in 2000 – brings McCutchen into line with outfielders Justin Upton and Jay Bruce, fellow members of the 2005 draft class. Upton was the No. 1 overall pick, McCutchen the 11th and Bruce the 12th.
Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen

Upton got a six-year, $51.25 million contract in March 2010 and in the offseason after the 2010 season Bruce signed a six-year, $51 million deal.

McCutchen’s extension also comes in the wake of what seemed to be a conscious decision in 2011 to sacrifice contact for increased power. It resulted in an increase in his strikeout numbers, an increase in his walk rate and an increase in the rate at which he swung and missed. It also came with a definite increase in his power – 23 home runs in 2011 after hitting 16 in 2010.

The Pirates have tied up McCutchen through his remaining arbitration years and at least two years of free agency. There’s a club option in place for 2018 that would pay him $14.75 million.

So what do the Pirates get for their money? Maybe more than fans outside of Pittsburgh realize. According to the Wins Above Replacement data supplied by Fangraphs, McCutchen’s 5.7 WAR rating was fifth among National League outfielders in 2011 behind Matt Kemp (8.7), Ryan Braun (7.8), Justin Upton (6.4) and Shane Victorino (5.9).

And in terms of the Pirates, McCutchen’s 5.7 was the franchise’s third best in the past 10 years after Brian Giles’ 7.1 in 2002 and Jason Bay’s 6.1 in 2005.

McCutchen’s adjustments weren ‘t limited to the plate in 2011. He began to position himself deeper as the Pirates center fielder and the results were striking. Pittsburgh gave up doubles and triples on 14 percent of the balls hit to center, left-center and right-center in 2010. A deeper McCutchen in 2011 cut that percentage to 10 percent and helped him improve his runs-saved rating from minus-8 in 2010 to plus-5 in 2011.
Cameron Maybin

Maybin

On Saturday, Cameron Maybin agreed to a five-year, $25 million contract with the San Diego Padres. The deal will keep the 24-year-old in San Diego through at least his first free agent year.

It's been a long journey for the former first-round pick, who was drafted ahead of the likes of fellow outfielders Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce and Jacoby Ellsbury and was involved in trades for both a star (Miguel Cabrera) as well as two middle relievers (Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb). But now on his third team and fresh off his fifth season of Major League action, Maybin has found a home.

Maybin had the best season of his young career in 2011, posting a .265/.323 /.393 triple slash line and swiping a team-leading 40 bases. He also led the Padres in runs scored (82), total bases (203), and triples (8). He tied for the team lead in hits (136) and was tied for second in home runs (9). His 4.7 Wins Above Replacement ranked sixth among all center fielders last season and tied for sixth among Padres outfielders in the Wild Card era.

Despite the success, Maybin’s offensive numbers suffered from hitting in the cavernous Petco Park, which consistently ranks in the bottom-third of the Majors in home runs hit and runs scored according to ESPN’s Park Factors. He batted .231 at home last year compared to .294 on the road, and there was an even bigger discrepancy in his slugging percentage (.324 to .457).

But while his home park punishes his surface-level offensive numbers, it is that same home park that represents one of the reasons Maybin is so valuable to the Padres - centerfield defense. Few parks are as spacious in the outfield as Petco, and Maybin's ability to track down batted balls represented a significant portion of his value in 2011.

Baseball Info Solutions has worked to upgrade its defensive analysis, a re-tooling that will be unveiled in The Fielding Bible III. Suffice it to say, the adjusted defensive metrics suggest Maybin was one of the premier defensive players at his position in 2011 - he ranked tied for third in Defensive Runs Saved.

While Maybin's defensive value is evident and his offense progressed, the latter still has significant room for growth. Most notably, Maybin's issues with changeups provide a clear area for potential improvement.

Maybin chased almost 39 percent of soft pitches (changeups, sliders, curveballs) low and away out of the strike zone and had only two hits on 239 such pitches in 2011. That .038 BA ranked 131st out of 145 qualified hitters. Specific to the changeup, Maybin ranked among the bottom of the league in batting average, OPS and strikeout rate against that pitch over the last three seasons combined.

He did, however, improve against the changeup from 2010 to 2011 - he raised his batting average (.091 to .197) and his OPS (.182 to .505), while reducing his strikeout rate (46 percent to 27 percent). Maybin - and the Padres - hope the trend continues in 2012.

Marlins part with keys to Cabrera trade

November, 13, 2010
11/13/10
11:11
PM ET
In the span of two days, the Florida Marlins parted ways with the two primary pieces they received in the 2007 trade for Miguel Cabrera.
Cameron Maybin

Maybin


Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin were considered elite prospects at the time of the trade, but neither developed into legitimate contributors.

Miller has failed to blossom since being selected with the sixth pick in the 2006 MLB Draft -- ahead of pitchers Clayton Kershaw (seventh) and Tim Lincecum (10th). On Friday, he was traded to the Boston Red Sox for minor league reliever Dustin Richardson.

On Saturday, Maybin was dealt to the San Diego Padres, for pitchers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. Both will help with the Marlins stated desire to improve the bullpen, but this is a disappointing end to Maybin’s tenure in South Florida. The Detroit Tigers drafted Maybin in 2005, ahead of notable outfielders Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury and Colby Rasmus.

With Miller and Maybin gone, two questions remain: How did the Cabrera trade end up working for the Marlins, and, what can the Red Sox and Padres expect out of their acquisitions?

According to Fangraphs.com’s Wins Above Replacement, the Marlins experienced a “loss” of 8.5 WAR on this trade. Cabrera has accounted for all of the positive contributions among the players the Marlins traded, but he’s been an MVP-caliber player during his tenure with the Tigers.

So what can be expected from Miller and Maybin? Neither player has produced at the Major League level, with Miller’s erratic command and Maybin’s strikeout issues and contact ability. Miller has faltered, even after return trips to the minors. Maybin has shown the ability to dominate at the minor-league level, but has seen his holes exploited in the big leagues.

Maybin did not accumulate enough plate appearances to qualify, but if he had his swing-and-miss percentage at balls inside the strike zone (82.1 pct) would have ranked 11th worst in the majors last season. A majority of the players with worse marks in that category are power hitters like Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds.

Maybin’s issues with making contact is what holds him back from developing into the star many people projected him to be. He has a career .306/.393/.478 line in 1,793 career minor-league plate appearances, including a .340/.415/.525 mark in 2010. He struck out in just 18.5 percent of his minor-league plate appearances last season.

Maybin will be just 24 years old next April, giving him plenty of time to carve out a productive career. But the difference between him being a Quadruple-A specimen and a legitimate Major Leaguer will likely come down to his ability to reduce his strikeouts and improve his contact rate with his new club.

Bautista enters McGwire territory

September, 11, 2010
9/11/10
12:05
AM ET
BAUTISTA
Some notes from around baseball Friday night
Jose Bautista continued his ridiculous 2010 season. Bautista cracked two more home runs and now has 46 on the season, which is one shy of matching George Bell's single-season franchise record set in 1987.

• 30 of his home runs this season have come at home. That ties Carlos Delgado's franchise record for HR at home in a single season.

• Bautista had never hit more than 16 home runs in a season coming into this year and had just 13 last season. He is the fourth player in MLB history to hit at least 45 HR one season after hitting fewer than 15. The others are Carlos Pena, Cecil Fielder and Mark McGwire.

Roy Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets in Queens. Halladay picked up his 18th win of the season, becoming the first Phillies pitcher with 18 wins in a season since John Denny in 1983. Denny won the NL Cy Young Award that season and the Phillies advanced to the World Series.

• Four of Halladay's 18 wins this season have come against the Mets. He's the first Phillies pitcher with four wins in a season against the Metropolitans since Vicente Padilla in 2003.

• Halladay also reached 200 strikeouts for the third consecutive season. He's the first Phillies pitcher with 200 K in a season since Brett Myers in 2005.

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard each went deep for the Phillies, which should come as no surprise. They each have five career home runs at Citi Field. That is tied for the most among visiting players at the stadium.

• Howard has now homered in three straight games for the first time this season and for the ninth time in his career. Five of these nine streaks have started in September or later. Howard has 57 home runs in September or later since joining the league in 2004, easily the most in baseball over that span.

• Howard's blast was his 251st career home run, all of them coming with the Phillies. That ties him with former teammate Pat Burrell for the third-most home runs in franchise history.

• In the Pittsburgh Pirates loss to the Cincinnati Reds, Andrew McCutchen swiped his 30th base of the season. He's the first Pirate with 30 SB in a season since Tony Womack back in 1998. Even better, he's the third Pirate 23 or younger with 30 steals in a season. Barry Bonds did it twice, in 1986 and 1987 (age 21 and 22), and Hall of Famer Max Carey also did it twice, in 1912 and 1913 (age 22 and 23).

• The Atlanta Braves picked up their first win of the season over the St. Louis Cardinals after St. Louis won the first five meetings. Chris Carpenter hit his second career home run, but allowed a season-high eight runs. Matt Holliday hit his 26th home run for the Cardinals, his most home runs since 2007.

• The Cleveland Indians defeated the Minnesota Twins, 2-0. Fausto Carmona snapped his six-start losing streak with a shutout. He's the first pitcher to snap a losing streak of at least six starts with a shutout since the Oakland Athletics' Rick Langford in 1980.

• The game lasted just one hour and 57 minutes, which makes it the quickest nine-inning game in Cleveland since 2004.
MORRISON
Logan Morrison picked up a hit in the Florida Marlins victory over the Washington Nationals and has now reached base in 30 straight games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last rookie with a longer streak was his teammate Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez reached in 36 straight games as a rookie in 2006.

1st Pitch: Whose fans are showing up?

August, 19, 2010
8/19/10
4:37
PM ET
Today’s Trivia: Putz
Roger Clemens finds himself back in the news today, so let’s take a look back at the Rocket’s playing days. Clemens won seven Cy Young awards – his first in 1986 and last in 2004. Five pitchers finished second behind Clemens in Cy Voting once, but one pitcher did it twice. Who is he?

Bonus question: Clemens not only won the Cy in 1986, he was the MVP as well. Who was runner-up to Clemens that year in MVP voting?

Quick Hits:
The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to chalk up their 100th straight home sellout on Thursday. The last game the Phillies did not sell out was July 6 of last season when they drew 41,548 for a game against the Reds. Let’s take a look at some parks that have seen attendance boosts or attendance swoons since last season.

Note: all comparisons are through the same number of home games for each season, so since the Reds have played 62 home games this season, their figures are compared to the numbers through 62 home games of last season (not through all 81 home games).

• It is no surprise that the Minnesota Twins are seeing the biggest boost, though they have a new park to thank. They’re drawing more than 10,200 fans per game MORE than they did last season at the Metrodome.

• In the non-new-ballpark category, hats off to the Colorado Rockies. They’re getting a 2,700 fans-per-game boost over last year, even though they made the playoffs last season.

• Give the consistency award to the fans at Busch Stadium. Their change this year is a whopping one, yes one, fan less per game. They averaged 40,846 last year and this year are bringing in 40,845.

• Hardest hit this year is the New York Mets, whose honeymoon with Citi Field has worn off. They’re seeing a decrease of more than 6,000 fans per game.

• And someone wake up the fans in Tampa. Though the Rays are in a division battle and have one of the best records in MLB, their attendance is down by almost 1,400 fans per game.

• Overall, 11 teams are drawing more fans per game this year compared to last, while the 19 others find themselves in the red. The average, through the same number of home games in each season, is 380 less fans per game this year.

Today’s Leaderboard:
Today is the anniversary of Eddie Gaedel and his only career plate appearance. So to honor the 3'7" big leaguer, here are the modern-day Gaedel's, or at least as close as we can get. As you can see, there are plenty of varying body types on this list:

Most Four-Pitch Walks This Season by Players Under Six Feet Tall:
5'11'' Prince Fielder - 16
5'11" Shin-Soo Choo - 13
5'11" Pablo Sandoval - 12
5'10" Andrew McCutchen - 12
5'11" Bengie Molina - 12
5'11" Blake Dewitt - 12
Excludes intentional walks

And, just for fun, let’s use Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon to connect Gaedel with Fielder, his modern-day “counterpart”.

Eddie Gaedel played with Jim Dyck for the 1951 Browns...
• Dyck played with Frank Robinson for the 1956 Redlegs...
• Robinson played with Dennis Eckersley for the 1975 Indians...
• Eckersley played with David Bell for the 1996 Cardinals...
• and Bell played with Fielder for the 2006 Brewers.

Thursday's Key Matchup:
Put it this way: Joe Mauer is batting .256 in his career against pitchers named Mark Buehrle and .329 against pitchers not named Mark Buehrle. There are only two pitchers (Justin Verlander and John Danks) who Mauer has faced more in his career than Buehrle. He’s batting better than .340 against each of them while Buehrle has held him to 11 hits in 43 at-bats.

Trivia Answer:
Randy Johnson was the two-time bridesmaid, finishing behind Clemens in 1997 and 2004. And get this, it happened once in the AL and once in the NL. Clemens the Blue Jay beat Johnson the Mariner in 1997 and Clemens the Astro beat Johnson the Diamondback in 2004.

The MVP runner-up in 1986 was Don Mattingly, who batted .352 that season with 31 HR and a .967 OPS. Only one pitcher was among the top nine vote-getters that season, and it was Clemens.

BIS: Ranking the worst outfielders

June, 24, 2010
6/24/10
11:18
AM ET
Rewind to the first week of the season, when the San Diego Padres visited their NL West rivals the Colorado Rockies. With nobody out and Padres shortstop David Eckstein on first in the top of the 14th inning, Adrian Gonzalez hit a fly ball to deep right field.

Rockies right fielder Brad Hawpe, who is not known for his defense, couldn't get to the ball in time and failed to cut it off before it trickled to the wall. Knowing that Eckstein represented the potential winning run, Hawpe came up gunning for home but overthrew the first cutoff man (Melvin Mora). The ball bounced twice before reaching Todd Helton, but it was too late to nab Eckstein, whose run made the difference in the game.

Doug Glanville writes Thursday about outfield defensive fundamentals, drawing on his own experiences from high school through his nine-year big league career. The University of Pennsylvania alumnus emphasized hitting the cutoff man and getting the ball in quickly to prevent runners from advancing extra bases. These fundamental defensive plays go unnoticed by most fans but are often just as important as the offensive highlights, Glanville says.

Unnoticed no longer. Baseball Info Solutions tracks these sorts of unheralded defensive plays as part of our defensive misplays (DM) and good fielding plays (GFP) records. We track 54 types of defensive misplays, and 28 different good fielding plays. For example, BIS marks missing the cutoff man as “DM 47” or taking a bad route to a fly ball as “DM 26,” both examples that Glanville cites.

On the flip side, there are things a fielder does that we don’t always expect, and we record those, too. For example, when an outfielder cuts a ball off in the gap and thus prevents runners from advancing extra bases, he gets a “GFP 22.” Using this data, we can accurately determine the best fielders in baseball.

Twins right fielder Michael Cuddyer is the 2010 leader in GFPs that prevent extra bases. He has cut the ball off or gotten it back in quickly to hold the runners at their bases seven times this season. Angels right fielder Bobby Abreu is the anti-Cuddyer, with a league-leading five defensive misplays on extra-base attempts.

As you might expect, youngsters are particularly prone to mental errors. Sophomore Colby Rasmus leads all outfielders with seven defensive misplays on throws. In fact, every outfielder with at least six throwing DMs is under age 30. We’ll expect each of these players to make fewer mistakes with more experience and coaching, as Glanville did as his career progressed.

We don’t have to rely solely on GFPs and DMs to tell us who’s doing all the little things right. Adam Jones, whom Glanville mentions as an example of a fielder who takes good angles to cut balls off in the gap, has thrown out three runners in extra-base situations already this season. Additionally, runners have taken the extra base just 41 percent of the time off Jones (21-for-51), tying him with B.J. Upton as the lowest rate among regular center fielders this season.

Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan has thrown out six extra-base seekers, tops in the league so far. BIS estimates that he’s saved five runs defensively with his throwing arm so far this season, also the best in baseball. Although he’s having a hard time reproducing his rookie of the year season offensively, Coghlan is finding a way, albeit with less fanfare, to help his team on the other side of the ball.

Ben Jedlovec is a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions.

The Closer: Proud pair of Pirates

May, 15, 2010
5/15/10
2:44
AM ET
Hitters of the Night

Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones, PIT: 10-for-11, 2 HR, 7 R, 7 RBI, 2 SB


McCutchen and Jones, batting three-four in the Pirates' order, both had five-hit games, the first Bucs to do that since 1970. It was the first career five-hit game for both players.

Only one of the 10 hits was on an inside pitch, while five were on the outside-- including two out of the strike zone away. Cubs pitchers were reading the scouting report by keeping balls out there. Prior to Friday, the two had combined for a .321 average on inside balls-- with Jones' .344 propping that up-- and only .223 on outside offerings.

Prior to Friday, the two combined Pirates hit only .127 against sliders and .111 against changeups, while striking out on those pitches over one-fourth of the time. Today they went 3-for-4, although the only blemish on their record-- Jones' fourth-inning strikeout-- was on a slider.

McCutchen and Jones saw 23 pitches in the strike zone, and swung at 18 of them (78.3%, much higher than their previous rate of 63.9). They fouled off 10 and had ZERO swings-and-misses. The eight strikes they put in play all went for hits, including both homers.

Two-strike hitting was also key. The two Pirates entered the game with a batting average of only .219 in two-strike counts. On Friday they got five hits and five RBI, including Jones' homer, in those situations. Both players have also had great success against the Cubs so far this season, combining to bat .679 with an OPS of 1.745. Against all other opponents, they're hitting just .255.

Why They Won

Why Giants starter Todd Wellemeyer won:

- Got ahead: 65.5 pct first-pitch strikes (51.5 entering the game), including no hits in four at-bats when the first pitch was put in play (.385 entering the game)
- Pounded away with his fastball: 74.5 pct of his pitches and 65.8 pct strikes, both highs for the season
- Allowed just two hits in 16 at-bats ending on the heater, which averaged a season-high 90.5 MPH

Why Angels starter Joe Saunders won:
- Got ahead: 68.8 pct first-pitch strikes (58.0 entering the game)
- Allowed no hits in 10 at-bats when ahead in the count (.340 entering the game)
- Went to 3-ball counts on just four hitters (0-2, 2 BB)

Why Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie won:
Used his fastball:
- Threw it on 66.4 pct of his pitches, his most in a start this season
- Allowed no hits in 18 at-bats (.296 entering the game)
- Induced misses on 13.3 pct of swings (7.6 pct entering the game)

Why Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez won:
Used his fastball:
- Threw it a lot and threw it for strikes (65.7 pct and 69.0 pct, most in a start this season)
- Allowed only 3 hits in 14 at-bats (.214 -- .379 entering the game)
- Got 3 strikeouts (4 strikeouts total entering the game)

Why Mets starter Oliver Perez lost:
- Couldn't finish off hitters. Florida batters got two hits and drew three walks when Perez already had two strikes on them. Previous opponents hit only .125 in two-strike counts.
- Threw his fastball 56.8 pct of the time, way down from the 67.5 pct rate entering the game.
- Left too many pitches in the strike zone. Earlier this season, Perez left only 45.6 pct of his pitches IN the zone, forcing hitters to chase more. On Friday, 53.4 pct hit the zone, and Florida hitters went 9-for-17 against them. Only two Marlins concluded their at-bats on a pitch outside the zone, and both were swinging strikeouts.
- Left the ball up in the zone. More than a third of his pitches were high, and the Marlins went 5-for-9 including two homers against those.

Home Run Notes

David Ortiz ended up seeing five straight fastballs from Max Scherzer, thanks to the first three missing the zone. He then fouled off a 3-0 pitch before launching his three-run homer.

Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Ortiz has swung at nearly 17% of 3-0 pitches-- almost TRIPLE the major-league average of 5.9%.

However, only seven of his 90 previous homers over that span have come on 3-0 or 3-1 counts.

Ortiz's 459-foot blast was the longest home run of the night, and not surprisingly, would have been a home run in all 30 MLB parks.

As noted above, Andrew McCutchen had a tremendous game at the plate, going 5-for-5. But his 382-foot solo shot at was hit in the lone MLB park (Wrigley Field) where it would clear a fence. That's right, out of all 30 MLB parks, McCutchen's home run wouldn't have cleared the fence in any of the 29 other parks.

FanGraphs: Who's really carrying his team?

May, 12, 2010
5/12/10
11:35
AM ET
Today on ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick writes about players who are carrying their teams in a variety of ways. And while we can't put a number on any emotional or intangible lift a player gives his squad, we do have some cold, hard numbers that tell us which guys are really carrying their squads. To start, let's look at which players have the highest percentage of their team's wins above replacement.



Based on the numbers, no one is carrying his team quite like Choo, but that's a byproduct of being an excellent player on a bad team. The same can be said for McCutchen and Bourn. But I think the spirit of carrying a team implies something more. To make it relevant, you have to be able to carry a team that wins.

Therefore, let's give extra credit to Chase Utley and Roy Halladay of the Phillies. The pair has the most WAR of any batter (2.5) and pitcher (2.2) respectively this season and account for 23 percent of a first-place team's WAR.

Moving to the American League, Nelson Cruz and Justin Morneau are both are off to scorching starts for division-leading clubs. Morneau’s 2.2 wins above replacement is already more than half as many wins as he has in any season of his career, including his 2006 MVP season and accounts for 10 percent of the Twins' total WAR. Cruz’s 1.9 wins above replacement is possibly more impressive given that he did that in only 19 games before hitting the disabled list with a hamstring issue. He’s been a force in a lineup that has so far disappointed in offensive production. His production has accounted for 13 percent of the Rangers' total WAR.

On the other end of the spectrum are some players that teams were counting on to perform and have faltered so far. Chief among those would be Aramis Ramirez (-0.9 WAR) of the Cubs, who has been well below replacement level.

Howie Kendrick (-0.5 WAR) and Erick Aybar (-0.2 WAR) of the Angels have seen bigger than expected regressions from their highs in 2009. Both are under replacement level and are a big reason why the Angels have been so disappointing. Over in Boston, a team that Theo Epstein built on pitching and defense has seen good hitting and the expected solid defensive play, but has been completely let down by its vaunted pitching staff. Josh Beckett’s struggles are highly visible (0.5 WAR), but the entire staff has been less than dominating, and excluding Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon, the bullpen has combined for -0.6 WAR. Defenders can only do so much when the ball is being lined all over the park.

Matthew Carruth is a writer for FanGraphs.

TMI Power Poll: top 10 centerfielders

May, 3, 2010
5/03/10
7:06
AM ET
This week on the TMI Power Poll we look at the top all-around centerfielders.


Dodgers GM Ned Colletti publicly criticized Matt Kemp last week, suggesting that the centerfielder's new contract has him too comfortable and that his baserunning and defense were "below average." There might be something to that as Kemp was caught stealing Sunday for the sixth time this season, which leads the majors.


Those early season baserunning blunders weren't enough to sway our voters from ranking Kemp the game's best centerfielder as the Dodger picked up 7 of 9 first-place votes. Here's the rest of the top 10:


Others receiving votes: Vernon Wells, Michael Bourn, Marlon Byrd, Nyjer Morgan, Adam Jones, Mike Cameron, Chris Young, Carlos Beltran, Nate McLouth, Alex Rios

TMI Power Poll: top 10 leadoff men

April, 5, 2010
4/05/10
10:10
AM ET
Welcome to the debut of the TMI Power Poll. Each week a panel of 8 from the ESPN Stats & Info group will tackle a different topic and rank the top ten players/teams/items in that category. But we encourage you to get involved. Let us know why we're wrong, where we got it right and suggest future topics.

Since it is Opening Day (for most teams anyway), we lead off with the top 10 leadoff hitters. Corny? Absolutely, but it is an interesting topic for sure.

What makes a good leadoff hitter? It used to be that most would say a nice batting average and a lot of stolen bases would do the trick. Those numbers are definitely still relevant, but there are so many ways to look at things nowadays. Runs created, pitches seen, extra bases taken… Imagine the possibilities.

The majority of our panel was aboard the Ichiro bandwagon. Not much to dislike when it comes to the Mariners leadoff hitter – Ichiro has been a model of consistency. In each of his nine MLB seasons, he has at least 200 hits, 25 steals, a .300 BA and a .350 OBP. Last season Ichiro slugged a career high .465 and grounded into just 1 double play.

All that and much more were considered… You know our number one, so here's the rest of our best leadoff hitters (first-place votes in parentheses):Others receiving votes: Julio Borbon, Juan Pierre, Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano, Ian Kinsler, Skip Schumaker, Stephen Drew, Kosuke Fukudome, David DeJesus, Marco Scutaro, Andrew McCutchen and Dexter Fowler.

The Pirates win the Central?!?!

March, 31, 2010
3/31/10
6:05
PM ET
For the ESPN The Magazine baseball preview, we used Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS projections to simulate the season 100 times using Diamond Mind Baseball. In addition to producing standings for each season, the software also spits out the stats. Over the next couple of days we'll go inside some of the more eye-opening results.

As regular readers of Insider might remember, I wrote a piece a couple of months ago in which I explained why the Pirates have one of the best organizational plans in baseball. Seriously. Obviously, I was pleased to see the Pirates finish in first in three of our simulations (and tie for first in another). Even the most optimistic observer wouldn't expect Pittsburgh to make the post-season so quickly. Therefore, I had to check out how it all came together. Let's examine the Pirates 87-win season, which was their high-water mark in all of our sims.

Not surprisingly, Andrew McCutchen picked up right where he left off last year, and hit .302/.361/.437 with 11 homers and 23 steals in that "season". The real key, however, is Garrett Jones, who proved he's no fluke by slugging 33 homers while posting a .910 OPS. Of course the Bucs got some pitching help as well, most notably from Charlie Morton, who posted a 3.21 ERA in 188 innings while inducing 21 double plays. There's also Ross Ohlendorf, who proved the doubters wrong by posting a 3.84 ERA in 182 innings.

But for the Pirates to win 87 games, I think we'd all agree they'd have to get really lucky in some places. Enter Bobby Crosby. In this "season," the 2004 AL Rookie of the Year hit .278/.339/.400 with nine homers. That's nothing special, but it's a huge boost for the Pirates, whose shortstops combined for a .300 OBP with nine homers in 2009. Pittsburgh also got an .801 OPS with 16 homers in a bounceback season from backstop Ryan Doumit. Of course, the Pirates would have to get some luck elsewhere, and that's where injuries come in.

Yes, the software builds in injuries, and every player has a different risk factor. In this sim, Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter made just 18 starts. And Adam Wainwright, Carpenter's co-ace, pitched 135 innings and had a 4.35 ERA.

Of course there's also Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh's real secret weapon. The Pirates top hitting prospect bursts onto the scene in September to go 9-for-23 with five homers. (We don't have game-by-game data, so I'm guessing it's September because it's so few at-bats, and if he came up earlier in the season and hit like that, odds are he wouldn't go back down.) I'm calling it now: If Alvarez carries the Bucs to the postseason like this, he deserves Rookie of the Year, even if it is just 23 at-bats.

And yes, after all of this, the Pirates won 87 games and eeked out the Cards by one game for the division title. So if someone says to you, "there's no way the Pirates can win the Central," you can reply, "au contraire! If McCutchen and Jones continue to rake, Crosby and Doumit bounce back, Morton and Ohlendorf exceed expectations, and Carpenter and Wainwright are hurt and/or ineffective, then the Pirates might just win the division. Oh yeah, the Bucs would also need Pedro Alvarez to be a real-life Joe Hardy down the stretch. See, it could happen.

Matt Meyers is an associate editor at ESPN The Magazine.

One2Watch4: Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen

March, 21, 2010
3/21/10
8:35
AM ET
Rookies can be enigmatic. It’s part of the process of assimilating into the big leagues. Andrew McCutchen was a great example of this in 2009. After the Pirates traded All-Star centerfielder Nate McLouth to the Braves in early June, McCutchen was called up to play centerfield and had an interesting debut season. The phenom finished the season with a .286 BA, 12 HR and a .365 OBP - very respectable numbers for a rookie and enough for him to finish 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

If 2009 was any indication, the opposition might want to pitch around McCutchen come August. On the 1st of the month, the Pirate hit 3 HR against the Washington Nationals becoming just the 5th different Pirate to accomplish the feat since 1970 (Aramis Ramirez, Darnell Coles, Bill Robinson and Willie Stargell are the others). McCutchen also drove in 6 runs in the game making him just the 4th player in MLB history to hit 3 HR and drive in 6 from the leadoff spot.

That was just the beginning to a very productive August for McCutchen. In a month with no federal holidays, McCutchen was all business. He hit twice as many homers in August as he did in the rest of the season combined.

Once August ended McCutchen went into a slump, batting just .154 and slugging .192 in his next 13 games. Just as many writers were ready to write off his season as having hit the dreaded “rookie wall”, McCutchen flipped the switch and finished on a tear, with a .463 OBP from September 16th on.

So with more big league at-bats coming in 2010, the Steel City faithful hope Andrew McCutchen can maintain his spurts of greatness over longer stretches. For a team that hasn’t been to the postseason since 1992 and hasn’t finished in the top half of the NL Central since 1999, McCutchen is one of few bright spots for the Pirates – that makes the 23-year-old One2Watch4.
BACK TO TOP