Stats & Info: Billy Wagner
Ramirez, Madson primed to be overpaid
November, 10, 2011
11/10/11
3:34
PM ET
By Justin Havens | ESPN.com
While this offseason’s free agency class is headlined by the likes of Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes, there are a number of secondary options who stand to receive lucrative contracts in their own right. Two of them – third baseman Aramis Ramirez and reliever Ryan Madson – are likely to be a bit overvalued by suitors, but for entirely different reasons.
Aramis Ramirez
RamirezWhile Ramirez rebounded from a replacement level 2010 campaign to post a .306/.361/.510 line with 26 home runs and 93 RBI, there were indicators across-the-board that point towards a potentially quick decline for Ramirez, a concern relevant to any team interested in signing him.
Ramirez is becoming increasingly less patient as the years go by, both in the form of chasing pitches outside of the strike zone and in generating walks. In 2010 and 2011, Ramirez has posted walk rates of 6.7 and 6.9 percent, respectively, representing a clear decline from his 11.2 percent mark in 2008 and 8.2 in 2009. Perhaps more telling, the rate at which Ramirez is swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone is rapidly increasing since 2008.
In addition to the steady increase, Ramirez’s 2011 mark was the 5th-worst in the NL in 2011, behind only Alfonso Soriano, Alex Gonzalez, Yuniesky Betancourt and Michael Morse. Coupled with the decline in his plate discipline is the idea that he is not long for third base defensively. After posting a +11 mark at the hot corner according to Defensive Runs Saved in 2008, Ramirez has been below-average in each season since – and there’s a pattern; Ramirez graded out at -4 in 2009, -10 in 2010 and -12 in 2011. The 2011 mark ranked 2nd-to-last among NL third basemen.
Ryan Madson
MadsonThis offseason, Madson is one of the most coveted free agent relievers in baseball. That was to be expected, fresh off his first full season as the Philadelphia Phillies closer, complete with 32 saves and a 2.37 ERA in 60 2/3 innings. Whether or not the reported lucrative deal with the Phillies materializes, someone will pay Madson. The reason he stands to make $40 million or more this offseason has little to do with a significant jump in his skills, however, and more to do with the fact he now has the official ‘closer’ label.
In 2010, Madson posted five saves. In 2011, he registered 32. That would seem to indicate a noticeable jump in value or performance from Madson. In reality, he was nearly identical, with some actual decline in key spots.
The difference was largely in an unsustainable home run rate – Madson allowed home runs on 0.9 percent of plate appearances, which was the 16th-best mark out of the 339 pitchers who registered at least 200 plate appearances this season. Had Madson entered the market after 2010 – when he demonstrated much the same skill set he did in 2011 – he would likely not have been offered anything approaching $40 million.
Whether or not offering a reliever that sort of money is a wise proposition is a different question entirely. In the history of the game, six relievers have received contracts of three or more years at an average annual value of at least $9 million – B.J. Ryan, Billy Wagner, Francisco Cordero, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano. It would be fair to say that only Rivera returned the sort of performance expected.
Rafael Soriano: signed after 2010 season; posted highest ERA (min 30 IP) since 2002 and missed much of the season due to injury.
Francisco Rodriguez: signed after 2008; 62 saves in final year with Los Angeles Angels, never saved more than 35 with New York Mets. Suspended in 2010, traded in 2011 to avoid vesting option.
Mariano Rivera: signed after 2007; posted ERA below 2.00 in each season of contract.
Francisco Cordero: signed after 2007; strikeout rate dropped from 10.0 to 7.8 to 7.3 to 5.4 over life of deal. Posted an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) below 4.00 once during contract (2008).
Billy Wagner: signed after 2005; innings pitched and saves both declined each season he was with Mets.
B.J. Ryan: signed after 2005; Just 155 1/3 innings pitched in 5 seasons; missed majority of three different seasons (2007, 2009, 2010).
Clearly, the Phillies, or any other team, may give pause to signing Madson, or any other reliever, to such a lucrative contract given the history of performance for those who have received such a contract in the past.
Aramis Ramirez
Ramirez is becoming increasingly less patient as the years go by, both in the form of chasing pitches outside of the strike zone and in generating walks. In 2010 and 2011, Ramirez has posted walk rates of 6.7 and 6.9 percent, respectively, representing a clear decline from his 11.2 percent mark in 2008 and 8.2 in 2009. Perhaps more telling, the rate at which Ramirez is swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone is rapidly increasing since 2008.
In addition to the steady increase, Ramirez’s 2011 mark was the 5th-worst in the NL in 2011, behind only Alfonso Soriano, Alex Gonzalez, Yuniesky Betancourt and Michael Morse. Coupled with the decline in his plate discipline is the idea that he is not long for third base defensively. After posting a +11 mark at the hot corner according to Defensive Runs Saved in 2008, Ramirez has been below-average in each season since – and there’s a pattern; Ramirez graded out at -4 in 2009, -10 in 2010 and -12 in 2011. The 2011 mark ranked 2nd-to-last among NL third basemen.
Ryan Madson
In 2010, Madson posted five saves. In 2011, he registered 32. That would seem to indicate a noticeable jump in value or performance from Madson. In reality, he was nearly identical, with some actual decline in key spots.
The difference was largely in an unsustainable home run rate – Madson allowed home runs on 0.9 percent of plate appearances, which was the 16th-best mark out of the 339 pitchers who registered at least 200 plate appearances this season. Had Madson entered the market after 2010 – when he demonstrated much the same skill set he did in 2011 – he would likely not have been offered anything approaching $40 million.
Whether or not offering a reliever that sort of money is a wise proposition is a different question entirely. In the history of the game, six relievers have received contracts of three or more years at an average annual value of at least $9 million – B.J. Ryan, Billy Wagner, Francisco Cordero, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano. It would be fair to say that only Rivera returned the sort of performance expected.
Rafael Soriano: signed after 2010 season; posted highest ERA (min 30 IP) since 2002 and missed much of the season due to injury.
Francisco Rodriguez: signed after 2008; 62 saves in final year with Los Angeles Angels, never saved more than 35 with New York Mets. Suspended in 2010, traded in 2011 to avoid vesting option.
Mariano Rivera: signed after 2007; posted ERA below 2.00 in each season of contract.
Francisco Cordero: signed after 2007; strikeout rate dropped from 10.0 to 7.8 to 7.3 to 5.4 over life of deal. Posted an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) below 4.00 once during contract (2008).
Billy Wagner: signed after 2005; innings pitched and saves both declined each season he was with Mets.
B.J. Ryan: signed after 2005; Just 155 1/3 innings pitched in 5 seasons; missed majority of three different seasons (2007, 2009, 2010).
Clearly, the Phillies, or any other team, may give pause to signing Madson, or any other reliever, to such a lucrative contract given the history of performance for those who have received such a contract in the past.
How good was Trevor Hoffman over the course of his 18-year career? Consider the following:
HoffmanOnly two pitchers have had streaks of four straight seasons with at least 40 saves. Hoffman did it not once, but twice. (Francisco Rodriguez is the other pitcher with such a run.) His first streak came from 1998 to 2001 and was halted when Hoffman had “only” 38 saves in 2002. Hoffman’s second began in 2004, immediately after returning from an injury that cost him nearly the entire 2003 season.
Hoffman’s nine seasons of 40 or more saves are the most all time. For those who think Mariano Rivera, who ranks second with seven 40-save seasons, will break that mark, remember this: Rivera has broken 40 saves only once in the past five years.
Hoffman was not a power pitcher, but he was a strikeout pitcher. He averaged better than a whiff per inning in eight different seasons. The only closers with more such seasons (minimum 50 innings) are Billy Wagner (11) and Robb Nen (9).
The regular-season career totals for Rivera and Hoffman aren’t quite a match, but they’re closer than you might think. Rivera has saved 89.3 percent of his save chances, a hair better than Hoffman’s 88.8.
When Hoffman recorded his first save, on April 29, 1993, as a member of the Florida Marlins, the all-time saves leader was Lee Smith with 365. Smith now ranks third all time. Then there's this one from the Elias Sports Bureau: Among pitchers to debut since 1969, only two are ranked in the top 10 for lowest opponents' batting average against both lefties and righties -- Hoffman and Pedro Martinez (minimum 2,000 batters faced on a given side).
One team glad to see Hoffman end his career is the Los Angeles Dodgers. His 68 saves against them are the most by anyone against any major league team. That mark, much like his career saves mark, is in some jeopardy. Rivera, forever lurking alongside Hoffman, has 65 saves against the Baltimore Orioles.
While there's almost no doubt that Rivera -- one of the greatest postseason pitchers in MLB history -- will one day be in the Hall of Fame, has Hoffman done enough to warrant a call from Cooperstown?
Hoffman’s nine seasons of 40 or more saves are the most all time. For those who think Mariano Rivera, who ranks second with seven 40-save seasons, will break that mark, remember this: Rivera has broken 40 saves only once in the past five years.
Hoffman was not a power pitcher, but he was a strikeout pitcher. He averaged better than a whiff per inning in eight different seasons. The only closers with more such seasons (minimum 50 innings) are Billy Wagner (11) and Robb Nen (9).
The regular-season career totals for Rivera and Hoffman aren’t quite a match, but they’re closer than you might think. Rivera has saved 89.3 percent of his save chances, a hair better than Hoffman’s 88.8.
When Hoffman recorded his first save, on April 29, 1993, as a member of the Florida Marlins, the all-time saves leader was Lee Smith with 365. Smith now ranks third all time. Then there's this one from the Elias Sports Bureau: Among pitchers to debut since 1969, only two are ranked in the top 10 for lowest opponents' batting average against both lefties and righties -- Hoffman and Pedro Martinez (minimum 2,000 batters faced on a given side).
One team glad to see Hoffman end his career is the Los Angeles Dodgers. His 68 saves against them are the most by anyone against any major league team. That mark, much like his career saves mark, is in some jeopardy. Rivera, forever lurking alongside Hoffman, has 65 saves against the Baltimore Orioles.
While there's almost no doubt that Rivera -- one of the greatest postseason pitchers in MLB history -- will one day be in the Hall of Fame, has Hoffman done enough to warrant a call from Cooperstown?
Starting Sanchez made easy by numbers
October, 13, 2010
10/13/10
7:38
PM ET
By Mark Simon | ESPN.com
Why would San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy flip-flop Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, so that Sanchez pitches Game 2 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies in Philadelphia?
There’s a very good reason.
Sanchez beat the Phillies twice during the regular season, holding them to a .114 batting average and two runs in 13 innings. For his career, he’s held the Phillies to a .175 batting average. That’s best among the 75 active pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings against the Phillies. Change the qualifier to five starts and Sanchez is second-best of anybody in the last 55 years (trailing only Floyd Youmans). He’s even 10 points better than the immortal Sandy Koufax.
The matchups rate favorably for Sanchez against every Phillies hitter, with one exception -- Shane Victorino is 6-for-15 (.400 BA) against him. Other than that, it’s pretty lopsided in Sanchez’s favor. Ryan Howard’s .214 batting average (3-for-14 with seven strikeouts) looks pretty good compared to Carlos Ruiz (.111, 1-for-9), Jimmy Rollins (.067, 1-for-16), Jayson Werth (0-for-12, six strikeouts), Ben Francisco (0-for-8) and Raul Ibanez (0-for-6).
Sanchez allowed one run and two hits in 7⅓ innings in Game 3 of the Division Series against the Atlanta Braves. He’s one of three Giants to have a postseason start of at least seven innings and allowing two hits or fewer, joining teammate Lincecum and Dave Dravecky (1987).
That kind of performance is nothing new. Over the last two seasons, Sanchez has had that sort of performance three times in the regular season, including Aug. 19, when he took a one-hitter into the ninth inning of an eventual 5-2 win over the Phillies.
Stats & Info NLDS Preview: Braves-Giants
October, 4, 2010
10/04/10
9:47
PM ET
By Justin Havens | ESPN.com
A capsule stat-based preview of the Braves-Giants NLDS matchup
Top things to know
The Braves-Giants National League Division Series matchup will feature two of the best pitching squads in the National League. The combination of these elite pitching units and average-to-below average offensive lineups sets this series up to be arguably the lowest-scoring of the four.
The Giants ranked second in the National League in both starters’ ERA (3.54) and relievers’ ERA (2.99), while the Braves were fifth among starters (3.80) and third among bullpens (3.11). Both teams were consistently near the top of the ranks throughout the season, but the Giants’ run at the end of the season could prove to be the difference. During the crucial month of September – in the midst of the postseason meat grinder that became the NL West – the Giants posted a 1.78 ERA, holding batters to a paltry .182 batting average.
Deciding factor
The Braves lack of offense is not breaking news, but it’s the lack of power that could be most critical in this series. Both Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain posted the highest home run rates of their careers in 2010, making them arguably more susceptible to the homer than they’ve been in previous years.
Unfortunately, the Braves are sorely lacking power. They have the lowest isolated power (.143) and slugging percentage (.401) of any postseason team. Specifically, the team’s two best power sources – Brian McCann and Jason Heyward – have each seen their power go out down the stretch. McCann (2 HR, .326 slug pct) and Heyward (2 HR, .385 slug pct) both struggled in September and October, mirroring the team's season-long lack of power, and one that could spell trouble for the Braves.
Most interesting matchups
Two of the most compelling figures in this matchup are Braves closer Billy Wagner and Giants catcher Buster Posey. In his final season in the majors, Wagner put together arguably his best campaign, posting his highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) mark since 2003. In addition, among those with at least 50 innings pitched in 2010, Wagner ranked second in the National League in strikeout rate at 13.5 K per 9, behind only Carlos Marmol.
Wagner was incredibly dominant versus left-handed batters, limiting them to a .071 batting average – just four hits in 56 at-bats - and a tiny .246 OPS. No home runs. No extra-base hits. Against right-handers, however, Wagner surrendered five home runs in 183 at-bats. That is certainly solid work, but noticeably less than his performance against lefties. This sets up a potential late-inning showdown between the southpaw Wagner and the right-handed Buster Posey. Posey dominated lefties this season, hitting .309/.367/.588 against them, with an OPS increase of over 120 points from his marks against righties. The two have faced each other just once – with Wagner forcing him into a groundout – but the postseason could bring a different result.
Statistical secrets
While much of the focus on the Giants offense centers around Posey and Aubrey Huff, perhaps the most dynamic player for the Giants was Andres Torres. A journeyman throughout his career, Torres blossomed in 2010 and his overall package made him one of the most valuable players in baseball.
Despite remaining under the radar for much of the season, Torres ranked second among National League outfielders in WAR – behind only Matt Holliday – and ahead of darlings such as Carlos Gonzalez, Jayson Werth and Heyward. A significant portion of that value was derived from his defense. He ranked first among all outfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating, a potential key advantage given the spacious parks at which this series will be played.
The fact that he missed nearly two weeks after undergoing an appendectomy, yet after returning to the lineup still hit two homers in eight games during the heat of a postseason race, is just another checkmark in his favor.
SIG's Picks
Albert Larcada of ESPN Stats and Info did statistical analysis of the last 10 postseasons, looking for the factors that most separate winning and losing teams. He found three: power hitting, front-end starting pitching and the ability to turn batted balls into outs. Using his findings, he was able to make a projection.
The Giants meet all necessary criteria for a good playoff team. Outstanding front-end starting pitching, the best defensive efficiency in the NL, and decent enough power from their bats. For the Braves-Giants matchup, Larcada's system picks the Giants in four games. He gives the Giants a 58.8 percent chance to win the series overall.
Top things to know
The Braves-Giants National League Division Series matchup will feature two of the best pitching squads in the National League. The combination of these elite pitching units and average-to-below average offensive lineups sets this series up to be arguably the lowest-scoring of the four.
The Giants ranked second in the National League in both starters’ ERA (3.54) and relievers’ ERA (2.99), while the Braves were fifth among starters (3.80) and third among bullpens (3.11). Both teams were consistently near the top of the ranks throughout the season, but the Giants’ run at the end of the season could prove to be the difference. During the crucial month of September – in the midst of the postseason meat grinder that became the NL West – the Giants posted a 1.78 ERA, holding batters to a paltry .182 batting average.
Deciding factor
The Braves lack of offense is not breaking news, but it’s the lack of power that could be most critical in this series. Both Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain posted the highest home run rates of their careers in 2010, making them arguably more susceptible to the homer than they’ve been in previous years.
Unfortunately, the Braves are sorely lacking power. They have the lowest isolated power (.143) and slugging percentage (.401) of any postseason team. Specifically, the team’s two best power sources – Brian McCann and Jason Heyward – have each seen their power go out down the stretch. McCann (2 HR, .326 slug pct) and Heyward (2 HR, .385 slug pct) both struggled in September and October, mirroring the team's season-long lack of power, and one that could spell trouble for the Braves.
Most interesting matchups
Two of the most compelling figures in this matchup are Braves closer Billy Wagner and Giants catcher Buster Posey. In his final season in the majors, Wagner put together arguably his best campaign, posting his highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) mark since 2003. In addition, among those with at least 50 innings pitched in 2010, Wagner ranked second in the National League in strikeout rate at 13.5 K per 9, behind only Carlos Marmol.
Wagner was incredibly dominant versus left-handed batters, limiting them to a .071 batting average – just four hits in 56 at-bats - and a tiny .246 OPS. No home runs. No extra-base hits. Against right-handers, however, Wagner surrendered five home runs in 183 at-bats. That is certainly solid work, but noticeably less than his performance against lefties. This sets up a potential late-inning showdown between the southpaw Wagner and the right-handed Buster Posey. Posey dominated lefties this season, hitting .309/.367/.588 against them, with an OPS increase of over 120 points from his marks against righties. The two have faced each other just once – with Wagner forcing him into a groundout – but the postseason could bring a different result.
Statistical secrets
While much of the focus on the Giants offense centers around Posey and Aubrey Huff, perhaps the most dynamic player for the Giants was Andres Torres. A journeyman throughout his career, Torres blossomed in 2010 and his overall package made him one of the most valuable players in baseball.
Despite remaining under the radar for much of the season, Torres ranked second among National League outfielders in WAR – behind only Matt Holliday – and ahead of darlings such as Carlos Gonzalez, Jayson Werth and Heyward. A significant portion of that value was derived from his defense. He ranked first among all outfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating, a potential key advantage given the spacious parks at which this series will be played.
The fact that he missed nearly two weeks after undergoing an appendectomy, yet after returning to the lineup still hit two homers in eight games during the heat of a postseason race, is just another checkmark in his favor.
SIG's Picks
Albert Larcada of ESPN Stats and Info did statistical analysis of the last 10 postseasons, looking for the factors that most separate winning and losing teams. He found three: power hitting, front-end starting pitching and the ability to turn batted balls into outs. Using his findings, he was able to make a projection.
The Giants meet all necessary criteria for a good playoff team. Outstanding front-end starting pitching, the best defensive efficiency in the NL, and decent enough power from their bats. For the Braves-Giants matchup, Larcada's system picks the Giants in four games. He gives the Giants a 58.8 percent chance to win the series overall.
It's Friday and we're in love with baseball. Here are some of the best notes from ESPN Stats & Info as we head towards the weekend.
Hitters of the Night:
Edgar Renteria went 3-5 on Friday against the Braves and tied the game with a 2-run HR in the 9th inning off of Billy Wagner. The Giants won in the 13th inning to remain the only unbeaten team in the big leagues at 4-0. Renteria is 11-for-16 so far this season and is being more selective at the plate, especially as pitchers throw him less strikes. Renteria is chasing only 11.9 percent of pitches outside of the zone this season after chasing 19.3 percent last season. The result? Renteria has put the ball in play 57.7 percent of the time he has swung as opposed to just 46.3 percent in 2009.
Placido Polanco joins Renteria atop the league leaderboard with 11 hits this season, and is pacing a Phillies team that has scored 32 runs already. He's driven in a quarter of those runs himself, and is hitting .579 in the early going. Polanco has also been more selective, and the notorious contact hitter is missing even less this year -- he hasn't struck out yet in 21 PA. And he's jumping all over the few fastballs he sees, swinging at 56.5 percent of heaters. Polanco has seen 46 fastballs this season, swung at 26 of them, and missed ZERO.
Why Rockies Starter Jorge de la Rosa Won:
- Threw first-pitch strikes to 75 pct of hitters (56 pct in ’09).
- Allowed 27 pct of swings to be hit in play (38 pct in ’09).
- Of 9 swings against his slider, 0 were put in play.
- Retired the leadoff hitter in each of his 7 innings.
Hitters of the Night:
Edgar Renteria went 3-5 on Friday against the Braves and tied the game with a 2-run HR in the 9th inning off of Billy Wagner. The Giants won in the 13th inning to remain the only unbeaten team in the big leagues at 4-0. Renteria is 11-for-16 so far this season and is being more selective at the plate, especially as pitchers throw him less strikes. Renteria is chasing only 11.9 percent of pitches outside of the zone this season after chasing 19.3 percent last season. The result? Renteria has put the ball in play 57.7 percent of the time he has swung as opposed to just 46.3 percent in 2009.
Placido Polanco joins Renteria atop the league leaderboard with 11 hits this season, and is pacing a Phillies team that has scored 32 runs already. He's driven in a quarter of those runs himself, and is hitting .579 in the early going. Polanco has also been more selective, and the notorious contact hitter is missing even less this year -- he hasn't struck out yet in 21 PA. And he's jumping all over the few fastballs he sees, swinging at 56.5 percent of heaters. Polanco has seen 46 fastballs this season, swung at 26 of them, and missed ZERO.
Why Rockies Starter Jorge de la Rosa Won:
- Threw first-pitch strikes to 75 pct of hitters (56 pct in ’09).
- Allowed 27 pct of swings to be hit in play (38 pct in ’09).
- Of 9 swings against his slider, 0 were put in play.
- Retired the leadoff hitter in each of his 7 innings.
BP: Holy smoke, it's Billy Wagner
April, 8, 2010
4/08/10
11:14
AM ET
By John Perrotto, Baseball Prospectus | ESPN.com
As soon as teams could begin negotiating with free agents from other clubs last November, Atlanta Braves president John Schuerholz, general manager Frank Wren and manager Bobby Cox paid a visit to Billy Wagner's alpaca farm in Virginia to express him how badly they wanted him to become the new closer in Atlanta.
That was enough for the Braves to get their man as Wagner signed a contract that guarantees him at least $7 million and could be worth $13.5 million if he finishes 50 games this season, which would automatically trigger a club option for 2011. While the lefthander had 385 saves and six All-Star Game appearances on his resume entering 2010, his days as a dominant closer seemed to be behind him. He is 38 years old and had been limited to a combined 62 2/3 innings in the previous two seasons because of Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. It was a contract that caused more than a few eyebrows to be raised around major league front offices. However, if Wagner pitches like he did Wednesday night in closing out the Braves' 3-2 victory over the Cubs, he will end up being a bargain.
It was as if Wagner turned back time in striking out the side during a scoreless ninth inning for his first save of the season after Chipper Jones' two-run home run in the eighth had put the Braves ahead.
Marlon Byrd led off and Wagner blew him away on three pitches, fastballs that registered 97, 98 and 97 mph.
Alfonso Soriano then lined a single to left but not without seeing plenty of heat as Wagner threw fastballs at 98, 97 and 96.
Xavier Nady was next and Wagner set him down on three pitches. After starting off with a 97-mph fastball, Wagner went to the slider for the first time and it was of the wipeout variety. The first was clocked at 85 and the second at 82 as Nady went down flailing.
Up stepped Geovany Soto and Wagner blew him away, too, throwing heaters at 96, 98 and 98 before getting a called third strike on an 83-mph slider to end the game.
In all, Wagner threw 13 pitches. Ten were fastballs that averaged 97.2 mph and the other three were sliders that resulted in two called strikes and one swinging strike. From 2002 through 2006, Wagner's average velocity never dipped below 96.3 mph in a season. In the last three seasons, it never surpassed 94.6. It remains to be seen whether Wagner has the durability to be as overpowering as he was last night for the rest of the year. However, Wednesday night's outing couldn't have been more encouraging for the Braves.
John Perrotto is the editor in chief of Baseball Prospectus.
That was enough for the Braves to get their man as Wagner signed a contract that guarantees him at least $7 million and could be worth $13.5 million if he finishes 50 games this season, which would automatically trigger a club option for 2011. While the lefthander had 385 saves and six All-Star Game appearances on his resume entering 2010, his days as a dominant closer seemed to be behind him. He is 38 years old and had been limited to a combined 62 2/3 innings in the previous two seasons because of Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery. It was a contract that caused more than a few eyebrows to be raised around major league front offices. However, if Wagner pitches like he did Wednesday night in closing out the Braves' 3-2 victory over the Cubs, he will end up being a bargain.
It was as if Wagner turned back time in striking out the side during a scoreless ninth inning for his first save of the season after Chipper Jones' two-run home run in the eighth had put the Braves ahead.
Marlon Byrd led off and Wagner blew him away on three pitches, fastballs that registered 97, 98 and 97 mph.
Alfonso Soriano then lined a single to left but not without seeing plenty of heat as Wagner threw fastballs at 98, 97 and 96.
Xavier Nady was next and Wagner set him down on three pitches. After starting off with a 97-mph fastball, Wagner went to the slider for the first time and it was of the wipeout variety. The first was clocked at 85 and the second at 82 as Nady went down flailing.
Up stepped Geovany Soto and Wagner blew him away, too, throwing heaters at 96, 98 and 98 before getting a called third strike on an 83-mph slider to end the game.
In all, Wagner threw 13 pitches. Ten were fastballs that averaged 97.2 mph and the other three were sliders that resulted in two called strikes and one swinging strike. From 2002 through 2006, Wagner's average velocity never dipped below 96.3 mph in a season. In the last three seasons, it never surpassed 94.6. It remains to be seen whether Wagner has the durability to be as overpowering as he was last night for the rest of the year. However, Wednesday night's outing couldn't have been more encouraging for the Braves.
John Perrotto is the editor in chief of Baseball Prospectus.
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