Stats & Info: Buster Posey

After scoring only 14 runs combined in four games entering Wednesday's contest with the Cleveland Indians, the Boston Red Sox have now hammered out 14 runs in each of their last two games, with Thursday's victim being the Detroit Tigers.

This marked the eighth time since 1919 that Boston scored at least 14 runs in back-to-back games, and first time since July of 1998.

Much to the relief of Red Sox fans, at the forefront of this offensive outburst is Carl Crawford, who had two triples as part of his second straight four-hit game. He's just the fourth different Red Sox player (joining Dustin Pedroia, Jim Rice and Wade Boggs, who did it three different times) with consecutive four-hit games in the divisional era.

Crawford's also the first Red Sox player with at least four hits and at least two extra-base hits in consecutive games since Del Pratt did it in back-to-back games on August 23-24, 1921.

In the last two games alone Crawford has raised his average from .212 to .244 and seen his slugging percentage jump from .293 to .368 during that same stretch.

While all the talk following the game centered on Boston's offense, entering Thursday's contest the buzz surrounded the man tasked with shutting it down. Heading into the game, Max Scherzer was 3-0 in five home starts with a 0.77 ERA, the lowest ERA for a Tigers pitcher in his first five home starts of a season since 1945, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Scherzer's home ERA is now 2.43 following the Tigers' 14-1 loss to the Red Sox.

Scherezer faced three batters in the second inning without recording an out before exiting. Almost all the damage was done by the seven left-handed hitters in Boston's lineup. Nine of the 15 batters Scherzer faced reached base, and six of the seven hits he allowed were to left-handed batters.

Elsewhere around the majors:

• After using eight different relief pitchers on Wednesday in their 19-inning win over the Cincinnati Reds, Cliff Lee gave the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen a much-needed day off, throwing eight innings. But it was his bat that contributed almost as much as his arm. Cliff Lee had two hits and three RBI, without the benefit of a home run. He's just the fifth Phillies pitcher since Divisional Play began in 1969 to do that.

Jay Bruce did hit a two-run home run off Lee. It was Bruce's 10th home run in the month of May, currently tied with Jose Bautista for the most in the month of May.

• The Florida Marlins defeated the San Francisco Giants 1-0 behind Anibal Sanchez who pitched the third shutout of his career. It marked just the fifth time in franchise history that a pitcher threw a 1-0 shutout. Sanchez has allowed zero earned runs in four of his last seven starts.

As for the Giants, their first game without Buster Posey displayed their offensive deficiencies that could prevent them from reaching the playoffs. According to 10,000 simulations done by Accuscore.com, the injury dropped the Giants' chances of making the playoffs to 44.4 percent if he is out for the entire season.

Buster Posey wins NL Rookie of the Year

November, 15, 2010
11/15/10
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Buster Posey
Posey
San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey, fresh off a World Series championship, was named National League Rookie of the Year Tuesday, beating Atlanta Braves rightfielder Jason Heyward.

Posey was tied with Heyward for fifth among NL rookies with 18 home runs, and was fourth with 67 RBI in just 108 games. He finished first with a .305 batting average and a .505 slugging percentage and ran the best pitching staff in the major leagues.

Posey is the sixth Giant to win the NL Rookie of the Year, a list that includes three Hall of Famers. He is also the fifth San Francisco Giants rookie to finish the season with a .300 batting average and double-digit home runs.

Three of the other four also won the award, and the other lost out to his teammate who accomplished the same feat in the same season.

Heyward had one of the best seasons for a player as young as he is (he turned 21 during the season) in a long time. While Posey has a significant edge on Jason Heyward in both batting average and slugging percentage, there is one next-level metric in which Heyward has a decisive edge.

Win Probability Added measures the value of every plate appearance during a given season, and how much it contributes to a team’s chances to win. For example, in a tie game, with no one on base and one out in the top of the ninth inning, a player hits a go-ahead home run.

He took his team’s chance of winning (based on historical data) from 43 percent to 80 percent, so he gets a credit of 37 percent. Win Probability Added sums a player’s credits (and debits) over a season to get their total value.

Heyward had a LOT of big hits for the Braves this season, so many that he ended the season ranked sixth-best in the NL with a WPA of 4.82 wins (his offensive contributions were worth 4.82 wins). That dwarfs Posey’s 1.09 WPA, which admittedly is hurt by his only playing 108 games, but is unlikely to have been anywhere near Heyward’s had he played the full season.

Jaime Garcia finished third after going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA for the St. Louis Cardinals. His 13 wins led NL rookies (only one other pitcher had 10) and his 2.70 ERA was second among rookies with a minimum of 81 innings pitched.

And Gaby Sanchez of the Florida Marlins finished fourth, after leading all NL rookies with 85 RBI and hitting 19 home runs, which was tied for third.

With Neftali Feliz winning in the American League, the Rookies of the Year faced each other in the World Series for just the third time in baseball history. In 1981, the New York Yankees and Dave Righetti faced Fernando Valenzuela and the Los Angeles Dodgers. And in 1951, Gil McDougald and the Yankees faced the New York Giants and Willie Mays.

Young Giants shine in World Series

November, 1, 2010
11/01/10
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Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner
According to The Elias Sports Bureau, Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey were the first all-rookie starting battery in a World Series game since Spec Shea and Yogi Berra started for the New York Yankees in Game One of the 1947 World Series.

How did they do?

Bumgarner became the fourth-youngest starter to win a World Series game as the Giants took a 3-1 series lead over the Rangers. The lefty went eight innings and didn’t allow an earned run becoming the youngest to ever accomplish that feat.

Bumgarner consistently got ahead of Rangers hitters as he threw first-pitch strikes to 21 of 27 batters faced (78.0 pct). That's his highest percentage in any of his starts this season.

He also threw a season-high 25 changeups, smashing his previous high of 18. Bumgarner used his changeup most often early in the count to keep hitters that were looking for fastballs off balance. Overall, hitters finished one-for-eight against his changeup, and the seven outs he recorded with that pitch were the most all year.

Bumgarner’s dominance gave the Giants their fourth shutout this postseason. That ties the 1998 Yankees and 1905 New York Giants for the most in a single postseason in major-league history. To put that in perspective, from 1903 to 1966, 16 teams threw at least two shutouts in a World Series. The Giants are the first team since the 1966 Orioles (three shutouts) to pitch multiple shutouts in a World Series.

Bumgarner’s battery-mate, Posey, wasn’t bad either. In the top of the eighth inning he took Darren O’Day deep to center field for a 419-foot bomb that would have also been a home run at AT&T Park.

Buster Posey
Posey
Posey is the 4th rookie catcher to homer in a World Series and first since Rod Barajas (2001 Diamondbacks).

At 23 years, 219 days (born March, 27, 1987), Posey is the youngest Giants player to homer in a World Series game. The previous youngest was Matt Williams (23 years, 333 days) in Game Three of the 1989 World Series.

Posey is also the fifth-youngest catcher to homer in a World Series game behind Yogi Berra (22 years, 143 days), Johnny Bench (22 years, 308 days), Bill Delancey (22 years, 313 days) and Tim McCarver (22 years, 362 days).

For the series Posey has two RBI and two runs scored. As a team, the Giants have scored 26 runs while the Rangers have only mustered 26 total HITS! Things will have to change for the Rangers if they hope to be the first team since the 1985 Royals to come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series.

Posey's big game sparks Giant Game 4 win

October, 21, 2010
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In the San Francisco Bay Area fans describe Giants baseball as "torture". The Giants picked up their sixth win this postseason Wednesday; this time by a narrow 6-5 margin. That is San Francisco's fifth one-run win this postseason. They finished tied for second in the National League with 28 one-run wins during the regular season. Who led the NL? The Phillies with 29.

Buster Posey
Posey
After going 6-16 during the NLDS against the Braves, Buster Posey was mired in a 1-11 slump through the first 3 games of the NLCS. He picked a good time to break out. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Buster Posey is just the fifth rookie to have four hits and two RBIs in a postseason game. The others are Jacoby Ellsbury (2007 Red Sox), Miguel Cabrera (2003 Marlins), Joe Garagiola (1946 Cardinals) and Freddie Lindstrom (1924 Giants).
Pablo Sandoval came up with a key 2-run double for the Giants. Last season that wouldn't have surprised many, but this season Sandoval hit .208 with runners in scoring position. That was the 3rd-worst among NL hitters with at least 100 AB with RISP. He was 0-1 in the postseason entering Game 4. He had just 2 hits in his last 12 at-bats with RISP to end the regular season.

From the Elias Sports Bureau: Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner was lifted with a 2-1 lead with two outs in the top of the fifth inning, and then in the bottom of the inning, Phillies starter Joe Blanton was removed from the game with two out and Philadelphia holding a 4-3 lead. That marked the first time in major league history that both starting pitchers were lifted from a postseason game one out away from being eligible for a victory.

This is the third time the San Francisco Giants have been up 3-1 in a Best-of-7 LCS. The two previous times (1989 against the Cubs and 2002 against the Cardinals), they closed out the series in five games. As for the Phillies, they are down 3-1 for the fifth time in franchise history. They've won Game 5 twice (2009 World Series, 1993 World Series), but they have never won a series when down 3-1.

Juan Uribe
Uribe
Juan Uribe's sacrifice fly was the fourth game-ending postseason RBI in franchise history and the first since Kenny Lofton in the 2002 NLCS. Fred Merkle is the only other Giant with a walk-off sac fly (Game 5 of the 1911 World Series against the Philadelphia Athletics).

The last time the Phillies lost a postseason game by walk-off was in one of the most dramatic games in history -- Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. Joe Carter hit a home run off Mitch Williams to win the game and the series.

Bumgarner latest Giant among men

October, 12, 2010
10/12/10
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It was all about the starting pitching for the San Francisco Giants, who advanced to the NLCS with a win at Turner Field over the Braves.

Madison Bumgarner (age 21) became the youngest Giants pitcher to win a postseason game and the second-youngest starting pitcher to win a series clincher, behind only Fernando Valenzuela.

The Giants starting pitchers -- Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Bumgarner -- combined for an 0.93 ERA, the third-lowest by an NL team in a postseason series, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Elias also noted that this was the first postseason series ever in which all of the games were decided by one run.

Bumgarner was a difference-maker. He was fantastic in his last nine regular-season starts and was again great in Game 4. On Monday, he had his highest average fastball velocity (93.4 MPH according to our Inside Edge video data), and got hitters to chase his fastball more frequently in any start in his brief career.

The determining factors were four players, none of whom started the season with the team -- Bumgarner, Santiago Casilla, Buster Posey and Cody Ross.

The Giants have now twice won postseason series-clinching games at Turner Field, amazing considering they've only won one regular-season series there since the ballpark opened in 1997. They advance to their fifth NLCS, having won two previously (1989 and 2002) and lost two (1971 and 1987).

It was Bobby Cox's final game as a major league manager. Cox set an all-time record with his 16th career postseason appearance. He retires with one World Series title, with the 1995 Braves. There were some disappointing defeats along the way (the Braves have now lost eight straight postseason elimination games at home), but 2,504 regular season wins (fourth all-time) and a lot of good memories.

The Giants meanwhile head to an NLCS matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies. The teams split six games during the regular season. The key will be whether their pitching can shut the Phillies down -- during the regular season, they held Phillies hitters to a .226 batting average and three home runs -- and whether their hitting can get anything done against a staff that got two shutouts in its NLDS sweep of the Cincinnati Reds.

Stats & Info NLDS Preview: Braves-Giants

October, 4, 2010
10/04/10
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A capsule stat-based preview of the Braves-Giants NLDS matchup

Top things to know

The Braves-Giants National League Division Series matchup will feature two of the best pitching squads in the National League. The combination of these elite pitching units and average-to-below average offensive lineups sets this series up to be arguably the lowest-scoring of the four.

The Giants ranked second in the National League in both starters’ ERA (3.54) and relievers’ ERA (2.99), while the Braves were fifth among starters (3.80) and third among bullpens (3.11). Both teams were consistently near the top of the ranks throughout the season, but the Giants’ run at the end of the season could prove to be the difference. During the crucial month of September – in the midst of the postseason meat grinder that became the NL West – the Giants posted a 1.78 ERA, holding batters to a paltry .182 batting average.

Deciding factor

The Braves lack of offense is not breaking news, but it’s the lack of power that could be most critical in this series. Both Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain posted the highest home run rates of their careers in 2010, making them arguably more susceptible to the homer than they’ve been in previous years.

Unfortunately, the Braves are sorely lacking power. They have the lowest isolated power (.143) and slugging percentage (.401) of any postseason team. Specifically, the team’s two best power sources – Brian McCann and Jason Heyward – have each seen their power go out down the stretch. McCann (2 HR, .326 slug pct) and Heyward (2 HR, .385 slug pct) both struggled in September and October, mirroring the team's season-long lack of power, and one that could spell trouble for the Braves.

Most interesting matchups

Two of the most compelling figures in this matchup are Braves closer Billy Wagner and Giants catcher Buster Posey. In his final season in the majors, Wagner put together arguably his best campaign, posting his highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) mark since 2003. In addition, among those with at least 50 innings pitched in 2010, Wagner ranked second in the National League in strikeout rate at 13.5 K per 9, behind only Carlos Marmol.

Wagner was incredibly dominant versus left-handed batters, limiting them to a .071 batting average – just four hits in 56 at-bats - and a tiny .246 OPS. No home runs. No extra-base hits. Against right-handers, however, Wagner surrendered five home runs in 183 at-bats. That is certainly solid work, but noticeably less than his performance against lefties. This sets up a potential late-inning showdown between the southpaw Wagner and the right-handed Buster Posey. Posey dominated lefties this season, hitting .309/.367/.588 against them, with an OPS increase of over 120 points from his marks against righties. The two have faced each other just once – with Wagner forcing him into a groundout – but the postseason could bring a different result.

Statistical secrets

While much of the focus on the Giants offense centers around Posey and Aubrey Huff, perhaps the most dynamic player for the Giants was Andres Torres. A journeyman throughout his career, Torres blossomed in 2010 and his overall package made him one of the most valuable players in baseball.

Despite remaining under the radar for much of the season, Torres ranked second among National League outfielders in WAR – behind only Matt Holliday – and ahead of darlings such as Carlos Gonzalez, Jayson Werth and Heyward. A significant portion of that value was derived from his defense. He ranked first among all outfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating, a potential key advantage given the spacious parks at which this series will be played.

The fact that he missed nearly two weeks after undergoing an appendectomy, yet after returning to the lineup still hit two homers in eight games during the heat of a postseason race, is just another checkmark in his favor.

SIG's Picks

Albert Larcada of ESPN Stats and Info did statistical analysis of the last 10 postseasons, looking for the factors that most separate winning and losing teams. He found three: power hitting, front-end starting pitching and the ability to turn batted balls into outs. Using his findings, he was able to make a projection.

The Giants meet all necessary criteria for a good playoff team. Outstanding front-end starting pitching, the best defensive efficiency in the NL, and decent enough power from their bats. For the Braves-Giants matchup, Larcada's system picks the Giants in four games. He gives the Giants a 58.8 percent chance to win the series overall.

Buster Posey leads Giants to the top

September, 17, 2010
9/17/10
5:56
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On a night when there were only 10 home runs -- tied for third-fewest on any day this season -- Buster Posey hit the longest home run of the night (411 feet) to propel the San Francisco Giants into first place in the NL West. If you look at just days with six or more MLB games (as Thursday had), the 10 homers are the fewest this season and two away from being the fewest in the past five years.

Jonathan Sanchez started for the Giants and set a career high with 12 strikeouts, which gave him a career high 188 this season!

How Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez dominated the Los Angeles Dodgers:
• Strike percentage of 74.4 (on all pitches) was the highest of his career in a start. It was spread across all pitch types (76.7% on fastballs); the free-swinging Dodgers whiffed 18 times, the most for Sanchez since April.
• Curve and slider worked well; Dodgers went 0-for-7 against those two pitches, which also accounted for five of Sanchez' season-high 12 strikeouts. They also chased half of those two pitches outside the strike zone.Sanchez
• No fear: Threw 25 pitches up and 22 across the middle, and did not surrender a hit on any of those. Los Angeles was 0-for-14 when putting those in play, and they chopped down on most of them: Sanchez' ground ball percentage of 64.3 was his highest of the season.
• High strike percentage led him to ZERO 3-ball counts the entire game (not even 3-2). That's another first in his career as a starter. He went 2-0 to only two batters, both of whom later made outs.

Sanchez also led all starters on Thursday in first-pitch strike percentage at 72 percent (18 of 25 batters faced).

And as the Giants move up the standings, a note about a team heading in the other direction:

FROM ELIAS: Since the 162-game schedule took effect in 1961, the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates have the fewest ROAD wins of any team through 74 games. The New York Mets held that distinction with 16 wins in 1963.

Pitchers’ streaks end, Posey’s continues

July, 27, 2010
7/27/10
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Tuesday saw a couple of streaks end for two of the game's best pitchers. Meanwhile, baseball's hottest hitter kept his streak alive.


CC Sabathia, NYY - 7 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 2 ER in loss at Indians

Sabathia entered the start against his former club having won his last 9 decisions. A couple of early unearned runs by the Indians combined with seven innings of three-hit baseball from Cleveland's Josh Tomlin (who was making his MLB debut) spelled the end of Sabathia's streak.


Josh Johnson, FLA - 7 IP, 8 H, 3 ER in no-decision at Giants

Johnson had arguably an even more impressive streak than Sabathia. In his previous 13 starts entering Tuesday, Johnson had gone at least six innings and allowed two runs or fewer, which was tied for the 2nd-longest such streak in the Live Ball Era (since 1920). It was last accomplished by Greg Maddux in 1995. Three walks and a season-high-tying eight hits led to three earned runs and the end of Johnson's streak. For those curious, had Johnson extended the streak he would have tied the Live-Ball record set in 1986 by Mike Scott, who went six or more innings with two or fewer runs in 14 straight starts.


Buster Posey, SF - 1-4, RBI vs Marlins

Part of the damage to Josh Johnson's pitching line Tuesday was caused by Giants phenom Buster Posey, who extended his hit streak to 20 games with an RBI single. Posey's hitting streak is two games shy of Willie McCovey's San Francisco rookie record of 22 set in 1959. If Posey gets to 22 he would next set his sights on San Francisco's longest streak for any player - currently owned by Jack Clark, who hit safely in 26 straight games in 1978. Posey is hitting 40-89 (.449) in July.

Pocket full of Posey

July, 23, 2010
7/23/10
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Buster Posey, the 2008 Golden Spikes Award winner as the best player in college baseball was drafted 5th overall that year. Posey had a cup of coffee with the Giants last year, but with the offensively-challenged team in contention this year, the pressure is on the rookie.

So far he has responded. Since July 1st when Bengie Molina was traded to open up an everyday role for Posey he leads all players with at least 50 at-bats with a .438 average and is tied for 2nd in baseball with 7 home runs.



Posey also has 2 separate hit streaks of over 10 games this season and has currently hit safely in 16 straight. Since the Giants moved to San Francisco in 1958, that is the 3rd longest by a Giants rookie, behind only the streaks of Hall-of-Famers Willie McCovey and Orlando Cepeda.

1st Pitch: Quick hits as 2nd half picks up in full

July, 16, 2010
7/16/10
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Today’s Trivia: A rare earthquake struck near Washington, DC Friday morning. In minor league baseball, the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (California League) have been in operation since 1993. What current major leaguer was a member of that first team?

Quick Hits: A quick look at some newsworthy hits from around baseball:

" From the LA Daily News: San Francisco rookie Buster Posey has had 141 at-bats this year and has three 3-hit games and two 4-hit games.

" From the Dallas Morning News: Since June 1, Josh Hamilton is hitting .438 in 38 games. He now has 29 extra-base hits in those games and has 38 RBIs. He has been kept off base only twice in that span.

" From the Chicago Tribune: Despite their poor first half, the Cubs have won at least 39 games at the break four seasons in a row for the first time since 1967-75.

" From the New York Daily News: The New York Mets' batting average with runners in scoring position over the last seven games is .132 (7-for-53).

" From the Arizona Republic: The Arizona Diamondbacks are being outscored 255-144 from the sixth inning on and have a league-leading 14 blown saves.

" From Elias: The New York Yankees have won the first game that they played after the All-Star break in each of the last eight seasons (2002-2009). Tonight they can tie the major-league record for consecutive games won by a team in its first game played after an All-Star game. The Yankees had a nine-game streak from 1940 through 1949 (there was no All-Star game in 1945) and the Montreal Expos had a nine-game streak from 1984 through 1992.

Key Matchup: Derek Jeter ended the first half of the season in a slump, hitting only .186 (8-for-43) over his final 12 games to drop his average to .274 (his lowest career pre-All-Star Break average). What better way to break out of that slump than facing Tampa Bay’s James Shields, whom Jeter is hitting .378 (14-for-37) against in his career. Jeter is 2-for-7 (.286) against Shields this season. For his career, “The Captain” is hitting .312 overall against Tampa Bay.

Trivia Answer: The Cubs’ Derrek Lee – the 14th pick in the 1993 amateur draft by the San Diego Padres – played 20 games for the Quakes as a 17-year-old.

The Closer: HR heaven

July, 8, 2010
7/08/10
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On Wednesday, MLB players combined to hit 47 home runs. That is the highest single-day total this season. Five batters had multi-HR games: Matt Holliday, Martin Prado, Buster Posey, Casey Kotchman and Adam Dunn (who hit three). Dunn had been in a 12-game homerless drought prior to Wednesday's outburst. We break down a change in Dunn's approach this season in this edition of The Closer:

Hitter of the Night

Adam Dunn, WSH: 3-4, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R

Dunn is the second player this season (Edwin Encarnacion) to homer on three different types of pitches in a game, as he homered off Jon Garland's changeup in the first inning, Garland's fastball in the third inning and Joe Thatcher's slider in the eighth inning. The homers off Garland reflected a trend this season for Dunn, who has been more aggressive in his approach. Dunn's swing percentage on the first two pitches he sees is up from 29.0 last year to 32.1 pct this season, and he's seen strong results.


On a homer-heavy day, there were starters who had success:

Why Tim Lincecum won:

- Lincecum's average fastball velocity was 93.3 MPH, his highest in a start this season. Lincecum started 20 hitters off with fastballs (71.4 pct of AB).
- The Giants righty threw his changeup 23 times on Wednesday, getting Brewers hitters to miss on eight of their 12 swings - the best miss pct (66.7) in a start this season for Lincecum's changeup.
- He especially turned to his changeup with two strikes: He threw 17 pitches with two strikes, eight of which were changeups. Lincecum managed six strikeouts with his change, all swinging. Overall with two strikes, Brewers hitters put just one ball in play, a groundout.


Why David Price won:

- Threw 99 fastballs out of 111 pitches (89.1 pct), a season high. Entering Wednesday, Price had thrown 70.3 pct fastballs on the season. The Red Sox missed on 19 of their 60 swings against Price's fastball (31.7 pct). For the season, the Red Sox miss pct vs fastballs is 13.1.
- Through six innings, Price had thrown 83 of 87 fastballs. In his final two innings, eight of Price's 24 pitches were offspeed. Price started 27 of the first 29 hitters he faced with a first-pitch fastball.
- Price threw five of his 12 offspeed pitches with two strikes. He also threw five of his 12 offspeed pitches to Marco Scutaro. Scutaro is a .300 hitter this season against fastballs from LHP; .241 against offspeed pitches from LHP.
- Price's strike pct of 74.8 was a season high, and he threw just one pitch all night out of a three-ball count.
- With runners in scoring position, Price threw 14 pitches; only one was an offspeed pitch.


Why Josh Johnson won:
- Challenged hitters in the strike zone. Johnson threw 75 of his 117 pitches in the strike zone (64.1 pct- a season high). As a result, Johnson's chase pct (4.8 pct) was almost half of his previous season low in a start (9.4 pct).
- Johnson threw 46 of his 76 fastballs in the strike zone, and Dodgers hitters showed patience, chasing only one of 30 fastballs out of the zone. However, they also only went 2-15 (.133) on fastballs in the strike zone. The MLB average on fastballs in the zone is .302.
- Worked efficiently. Johnson retired all eight leadoff men he faced, and 22 of his 31 batters faced saw four pitches or less.

Top 25 players under 25: part one (No. 21-25)

April, 11, 2010
4/11/10
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Starting today we are going to start unveiling our top 25 players in the majors under the age of 25.

The criteria to make the list:

- Must be under 25 years old on Opening Day 2010.
- Must have MLB experience.
- MLB results matter more than projected future stats or “talent” level. (If we were doing a list based on potential, Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey and Austin Jackson etc. would be on this list).
- Our 25-man "team" must carry ordinary MLB requirements (two catchers, all positions and DH covered plus a bench and 12 pitchers).

We'll unveil the bottom 5 today and work our way up the next 4 days.

25. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, TEX, 24
2009: .233 BA, .290 OBP, 9 HR in 84 games.
-In danger of earning the dreaded lifetime prospect distinction, “Salty” should start behind the plate for the Rangers this season. His tools can’t be ignored, and legitimate power-hitting catchers are not easy to find. But legitimate power-hitting catchers do not have a .180 WHAvg, .371 SLG% nor an OPS of .661, and his 33% chase percentage and 31% K% do not help his case either. But every team needs two catchers, and this one is no different. A strong season from Saltalamacchia could do well to justify his spot on this list; otherwise, he’s a mere placeholder for the likes of Carlos Santana or Buster Posey in 2011.

24. Elvis Andrus, TEX, 21
2009: .267 BA, .329 OBP, .702 OPS, 33 SB
-Of the top 14 stolen base leaders in the American League last year, only Ian Kinsler (.327) and B.J. Upton (.313) had worse OBP numbers then Andrus. In a Texas system that should produce some top notch offensive talent in the next couple years (ESPN’s Keith Law ranked the Rangers’ organization as the number one farm system in baseball), Andrus can improve his runs scored and stolen base totals significantly if he can make better contact in the zone (.662 OPS on pitches in strike zone last year) and work some walks with a little more frequency (7.4% BB% in 2009). With Julio Borbon at the top of the order, there won’t be too much pressure on Andrus to produce offensively, particularly given his ability with the leather.

23. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE,
2009: .308 BA, 68 RBI, 81 runs, 17 SB, .799 OPS
- Cleveland’s switch-hitting shortstop took some solid steps forward in 2009, but was still vulnerable against breaking pitches from both sides of the plate. Cabrera hit .125 on 198 curves and sliders on the inside part of the plate last season. Pitchers needed to work the inner third effectively, because Cabrera hit .333 on the outer third. However, even with the 49-point average jump from 2008, Cabrera’s OBP only saw a 15-point spike, and his walks percentage (7.6%) is still well behind the league average of 8.9%. However, he can get away with it at times because he’s so hard to finish off. Cabrera only strikes out in 31% of 2 strike at-bats, missing 17% of swings with 2 strikes, and won’t help pitchers early, chasing only 15% of pitches in non-2 strike counts. Those numbers will almost certainly help him improve on his walks percentage in 2010, showing why he’s a very viable option to lead off the Cleveland order.

22. Daniel Bard, BOS, 24
2009: 3.65 ERA, 63 strikeouts in 49.1 IP
- While Bard’s ERA might not impress you for a reliever, the 3:1 K/BB ratio certainly will. Daniel’s 100MPH fastball coupled with a crafty slider allowed him to effectively work out of jams, keeping 76% of inherited runners from scoring. 52 percent of Bard’s innings were completed in 1-2-3 fashion, and 22 percent of his outs recorded came via a 4-pitch or fewer strikeout.

21. Neftali Feliz, TEX, 21
2009: 1.74 ERA, 39 strikeouts and 8 walks in 31.0 IP
- Feliz had a tremendous, but brief stint in the majors this past season. In 20 appearances, Feliz held opposing batters to a .124 batting average. Feliz turned 2-strike at-bats into outs 89 percent of the time (league avg. = 72 percent). With a WHIP of .677 and a K/BB ratio of nearly 5:1, Feliz represents the Rangers as their closer of the future, and perhaps present.

Check back tomorrow for players 16-20.

BP: Surprising prospect assignments

April, 8, 2010
4/08/10
3:54
PM ET
For prospect hounds, today is the real Opening Day, as 10 full-season minor leagues begin play. Although fans and fantasy players alike are reviewing the 30 big league rosters, those mining for gold in the minors have 120 to review. With that in mind, here are four surprisingly high and low assignments for some of the top prospects in the game.

TOO AGGRESSIVE

Simon Castro, RHP, Padres, Double-A San Antonio: The top pitching prospect in the San Diego system dominated at Low-A last year, but a two-level jump was unexpected. The good news is that he has the fastball velocity (up to 95 mph) and command to succeed here, but one wonders whether this is designed merely to keep him out of the high-octane environment of the California League.

Aaron Crow, RHP, Royals, Double-A Northwest Arkansas: This one is defendable but certainly open to debate. On one hand, he's 23 years old, and it's time to get his career going. On the other hand, after not signing with the Nationals out of the 2008 draft and signing late last year, the only pitching experience he has in the past 20 months is three indy league starts and a handful of appearances in last year's Arizona Fall League. Expect some bumps in the road.

Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers, Double-A Chattanooga: Although Gordon earned co-MVP honors in the Low Class A Midwest League last year (.301 batting average/.362 on-base percentage/.394 slugging percentage, 73 steals), the one thing that stood out about his game was how he was athletic enough to put up big numbers despite being considerably raw. That combination could catch up to him against this level of competition.

Brett Lawrie, 2B, Brewers, Double-A Huntsville -- Lawrie got a taste of Southern League pitching last year in preparation for the World Cup, in which he played for Team Canada. In 13 games for Huntsville at the end of last year, the 20-year-old hit .269 with one extra-base hit in 13 games. Because he's Canadian, he has less playing experience than most his age, and with a .274/.348/.454 line at Low-A Wisconsin last year, he was good but hardly out of his league.

TOO CONSERVATIVE

Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins, Low-A Beloit: The Twins top prospect and 2008 first-round pick spent the majority of 2009 with the Snappers, and was arguably the top prospect on the circuit, despite an unimpressive line of .251/.353/.382. Still, rarely do players of this magnitude repeat a level, although the Twins are notoriously conservative in their development.

Ryan Kalish, OF, Red Sox, Double-A Portland: Kalish struggled upon his initial exposure to Eastern League pitching but was among the league's top bats during the second half of last year, slugging .571 after Aug. 1. It's hard to say what he has left to prove here.

Buster Posey, C, Giants, Triple-A Fresno: The signing of Bengie Molina was a curious one, as Posey hit .321/.391/.511 last year at Triple-A, so it's not as if there's work to be done offensively. Yes, his defense is a bit unrefined, but his bat is the kind of thing the Giants need at the big leagues now.

Drew Storen, RHP, Nationals, Double-A Harrisburg: Maybe the Nationals just wanted him to get used to saving wins for uber-righty Stephen Strasburg, but after 12 1/3 scoreless innings for the Senators last year as part of a dominant pro debut, is there any other point to putting him back in the Eastern League?

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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