ESPN More Sports

After 13 seasons, 189 games and eight Pro Bowl selections, the Chicago Bears elected not to re-sign Brian Urlacher this offseason, leaving a big hole in the middle of the defense.

The Bears signed two linebackers in the offseason – D.J. Williams from Denver and James Anderson from Carolina – but both have primarily played on the outside and neither played more than half of their team’s defensive snap last season.

The Bears currently have five picks in the 2013 NFL Draft, tied for the fewest in the league. If they do try to replace Urlacher in the draft, should they do it in the first round (20th overall)?

Any replacement for Urlacher – selected ninth overall in 2000 – will need to be able to impact both the run game and passing game.

Over the last five seasons, the Bears have allowed 16 more touchdowns than interceptions with Urlacher off the field, compared to 12 more interceptions than touchdowns with him on the field. They have also allowed half a yard more per rush with Urlacher off the field.

Urlacher is also one of four players in NFL history with 40 sacks and 20 interceptions. Sacks became an official stat in 1982.

In Mel Kiper Jr.’s most recent mock draft, he has the Bears selecting Notre Dame ILB Manti Te'o 20th overall.

Te’o defended 11 passes last season. Only two other inside linebackers were rated 80 or higher according to Scouts Inc. (Alec Ogletree, Georgia and Kevin Minter, LSU), and they combined to defend 12 passes last season. Te’o’s seven interceptions last season were also most by a linebacker since 2006.

Todd McShay sees inside linebacker with the same level of concern for the Bears. In McShay’s most recent mock draft, he has the Bears selecting Georgia linebacker Alec Ogletree.

The Bears do have other needs, however, and could delay selecting a linebacker.

The Bears did add Martellus Bennett in free agency, but tight end was a major weakness for Chicago last season.

No team finished with fewer receptions from the tight end position than the Bears in 2012. Bears tight ends also dropped 15 percent of their targets last season, the highest drop rate in the NFL and nearly triple the league average at the position (5.4 percent).

Protecting Jay Cutler may be even a bigger priority than giving him someone to throw to though.

Chicago signed left tackle Jermon Bushrod in free agency, but still has a hole at right tackle. The Bears have allowed a sack once every 11.9 dropbacks since the start of 2011, the second-worst rate in the NFL.

Seven NFL head coaches were fired on Monday, more than the amount of head coaches fired on the Monday after the regular season in the last three seasons combined.

The barrage of coaching changes comes after no coaches were fired during the season. It was the first season without an in-season coaching change since 2006.

Done in by bad defense

Andy Reid had his share of struggles at the end of his tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles, and it was mostly on the defensive side of the ball. He was never able to replace the late Jim Johnson -- his only defensive coordinator from 1999-2008 -- going through three defensive coordinators in his last four seasons.

Chan Gailey is no longer the Buffalo Bills coach in part because his defense allowed 45 points in a game four times this season. The 1986 Jets are the only other team to do that since the merger.

Done in by lack of offense

Lovie Smith is the fourth coach since 1990 to be fired despite winning 10 or more games in his final season. He's the only one whose team did not reach the playoffs that year.

Ken Whisenhunt’s Cardinals quarterbacks compiled a 21.4 Total QBR this season, worst in the NFL. For context, the Baltimore Ravens, the worst playoff team in terms of QBR this season, had a QBR more than double that of the Cardinals (46.3).

Pat Shurmur was unable to fix the Cleveland Browns’ offensive woes enough despite a successful rookie season from Trent Richardson. After four seasons ranking no better than 29th in points per game, the Browns ranked 24th this season.

The Kansas City Chiefs were last in the NFL in points per game, turnovers and passing touchdowns, and that spelled doom for Romeo Crennel.

Norv Turner lacked a consistent all-around offense in San Diego. Over the last four seasons, the Chargers ranked second in yards per pass attempt but last in the NFL in yards per rush.

Generally speaking

Five NFL general managers were fired Monday. Only four GMs were fired on the Monday after the regular season from 2007-11 combined
There's a common theme when looking at the general managers who were fired.

Of the five who lost their jobs, four of them had very few draft picks to work with during their tenure as GM (whether that was ultimately their own fault or not). Cleveland's Tom Heckert was the only one of the five who ranked better than 28th in total players chosen in the draft while they were on the job.

Mike Tannenbaum was hired by the New York Jets in 2006 and immediately made an impact, drafting two players in the first round who have started 222 of a possible 224 games for the team since entering the league. The next year he picked All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis.

But he made six first-round picks after that, none of which have made a Pro Bowl, including Vernon Gholston, who was taken sixth overall in 2008. He made five starts in three seasons for the Jets before being released. He never recorded a sack and hasn't played in an NFL game since.

While Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson and Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson have commanded most of the attention to this point, they are not the only NFL players attempting to put a stamp on the record books in Week 17. In fact, there are several records that are much more likely to fall, both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.

Sacks: After sacks became official in 1982, Mark Gastineau established the standard with 22 in 1984. That mark stood until 2001 when New York Giants defensive end Michael Strahan broke through for 22.5. Two different players enter Week 17 with a chance to take down Strahan’s record – J.J. Watt of the Houston Texas and the San Francisco 49ers’ Aldon Smith.
Watt leads the NFL with 20.5 sacks this season and needs two sacks to tie Strahan, a number he has hit in six of 15 games played this season. Statistically, his Week 17 opponent should provide him the opportunity, as he’s facing an Indianapolis Colts team against whom he registered three sacks – tied for his most in any individual game this season – in Week 15.

Watt has also disrupted a league-high 35.5 dropbacks this season, the most in the NFL over the last three seasons. Working in his favor is the fact Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has had 135 dropbacks disrupted this season, 26 more than the next-closest quarterback.

Smith, meanwhile, remains at 19.5 sacks after failing to record a sack in either of his last two weeks. Smith needs three sacks to tie Strahan’s mark, something he’s done only once in a game this season (five and a half sacks against the Chicago Bears in Week 11). He registered two sacks against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8, and working in his favor is the fact that the Cardinals have given up more sacks this season than any team in the NFL (56).

And while he may not end up with the record, no player in the last three seasons has had more success with the standard pass rush – four or fewer rushers – than Smith, who has recorded all 19.5 sacks this way, four more than Jared Allen compiled last season.

Touchdown passes by rookie: While Luck and Robert Griffin III have received the publicity, Russell Wilson is the one who needs a single touchdown pass to tie Peyton Manning’s rookie record of 26 touchdowns set in 1998. Wilson currently stands four touchdown passes ahead of both Luck this season and Cam Newton last season, and his 25 touchdown passes ranks ninth in the NFL this season overall.

Perhaps no quarterback has been as effective as Wilson over the last nine weeks, considering his Total QBR of 88.7 ranks first over that span, while he has also compiled a plus-14 touchdown-to-interception differential since the start of Week 8, second in the NFL to Tom Brady (+15). It’s not all roses, though – Wilson produced a season-low 16.8 Total QBR against the St. Louis Rams in Week 4, including three interceptions and no touchdowns.

Pass attempts: Barring an injury or an extreme shift in play calling, Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions will break Drew Bledsoe’s record for most pass attempts in a single season. Entering Week 17, Stafford needs to throw the ball just seven times to pass Bledsoe, who recorded 691 attempts for the New England Patriots in 1994.

As a reminder, Total QBR is a quarterback rating that takes into account all of a QB’s significant contributions (passing, rushing, sacks, fumbles, penalties) to his team’s scoring and winning and summarizes them into one number on a 0-100 scale, where 50 is average. Since the start of 2008, the team with the higher QBR has won 86 percent of the time.

Russell Wilson posted a 99.3 Total QBR in Sunday's win over the Buffalo Bills, the highest single-game QBR this season.

Wilson did much of his damage with his legs, rushing for career-highs in both yards (92) and touchdowns (3).

His QBR followed suit because he added 9.5 points above average (PAA) on his running plays, the highest single-game total by any quarterback over the past five seasons. Even more remarkably, he did it on just nine carries.

The big game Sunday was just another in a string of strong performances -- since the start of Week 8, no player has a higher Total QBR than Wilson (87.9). That's due to his performance on deep throws and his ability to avoid turnovers.

Since Week 8, only Robert Griffin III (1) has fewer turnovers than Wilson (3) among qualified QBs and Wilson is in the top four in the league in completion percentage (54.8) and TD percentage (9.7) on throws of 10 or more yards.

QUICK HITTERS
• Colin Kaepernick posted an 87.1 Total QBR in Sunday night’s win over the New England Patriots, his fifth straight game with a QBR of at least 60 since becoming the 49ers' starter in Week 11. Kaepernick is second in the NFL in Total QBR this season (79.5) and 49ers backup Alex Smith (70.1) is seventh.

• Aaron Rodgers had an 83.0 Total QBR in Sunday's win over the Chicago Bears, his third straight game with a QBR of at least 80. Rodgers entered Week 15 tied with Drew Brees for most games with a QBR of 80 or higher over the past two seasons.

• Matt Schaub posted a season-high 90.4 Total QBR against the Indianapolis Colts, his highest since Week 10 of last season against the Buccaneers (92.0). With the win, the Houston Texans improve to 17-2 in games in which Schaub has a QBR of 85 or better over the past five seasons.

• Matt Ryan had a 96.2 Total QBR in Sunday's win over the New York Giants, his third game with a QBR of at least 95.0 in 2012. That's tied with Tom Brady for the most such games in the NFL this season.

TOTAL QBR AND WINNING
Total QBR can be used to quantify just how important the quarterback position has become to winning in the NFL. Looking back to previous years, the team with the higher Total QBR has won 86 percent of regular season games since 2008 (as far back as Total QBR goes). That is higher than the comparable mark for teams with the advantage in total yardage, turnover differential, and NFL passer rating.

Each week, Stats & Information has a point-counterpoint discussion on an NFL topic of note. This week, two of our stat analysts weigh in on whether the offense or defense is more to blame for the Chicago Bears' recent 1-4 stretch.

The Offense
The Bears’ offense is more to blame for their recent 1-4 stretch. Not only are the quarterbacks turning the ball over more, the offense has been much less effective while it has possession of the ball.

Jay Cutler threw eight interceptions in the first eight games of the season. Over the past five weeks, Cutler and Jason Campbell have combined to throw seven picks, tied for fifth-most in the league.

The duo’s yards-per-attempt has fallen from 7.3 in the first eight games to 6.0 in the past five games, third-worst behind the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings during that span.

Cutler and Campbell also have targeted Brandon Marshall at a very high rate, making their offense very predictable. In the first half of the season, Brandon Marshall was targeted on an NFL-high 37.9 percent of the Bears’ total targets.

Marshall has been thrown to even more in the last five games, getting 40.3 percent of his team’s total targets. He is also being tackled more quickly after the catch, averaging only 2.2 yards after catch per reception in his last five games, compared 3.7 in his first eight.

On top of the stagnating passing game, Matt Forte has been much less effective running the ball recently. Forte averaged 5.0 yards per carry during the first eight weeks of the season. Since then, that rate has fallen to 3.5.

-- Mike Bonzagni


The Defense
Although it might be difficult to find many faults in the Bears’ defense, it cannot be totally ignored when debating which unit is to blame for the teams’ 1-4 record over the past five games.

During the Bears 7-1 start, Chicago’s defense accumulated 99.5 net expected points, by far the highest total in the league during the first nine weeks of the season.

It was not realistic to assume that the Bears could continue at this extraordinary pace, but their regression to the league average has been extreme in weeks 10 through 14.

During that span the Bears’ defense has added a total of three net expected points. That’s a far cry from the two touchdowns per game they had been averaging through Week 9.

The defense has been hurt by a lack of turnovers and struggles in the red zone. The Bears forced 28 turnovers in their first eight games, but just seven in their past five games.

During the 7-1 start they allowed a touchdown on 10.1 percent of their opponents’ drives, second-best in the league. During this recent slide, that rate has ballooned to 17.2 percent, which is tied for 11th over the last five weeks.

-- Hank Gargiulo

The two best defensive teams in the NFL were scheduled to play on Monday Night Football but only one of them showed up at Candlestick Park.

The San Francisco 49ers blew out the Chicago Bears, 32-7, holding the Bears to a season-low 143 yards of total offense. Chicago has scored 13 points in its last two games combined, after averaging nearly 30 points per game in its first eight games this season.

This dominating performance against the Bears in San Francisco is nothing new for the 49ers. They have won eight straight home meetings against the Bears, outscoring them 271-49 in those games.

Defensive Domination
Aldon Smith was the star on defense for the 49ers, setting the record for sacks on Monday Night Football with 5.5. The previous record was 4.5 by Jared Allen in 2009 against the Green Bay Packers.

Smith now has 29 sacks in his first 26 games, the most ever by any player in his first 26 career games.

Smith has 15 sacks this season, nearly twice as many as the eight sacks by the rest of the 49ers. All of Smith’s league-leading 15 sacks this season have come when the 49ers send standard pressure.

Against the Bears the 49ers averaged 4.5 dropbacks per sack when sending four or fewer pass rushers, their most effective four-man pass rush in the last five seasons.

Unlikely Star
Colin Kaepernick, making his first career start, picked apart the Bears secondary with 243 yards passing and two touchdowns. The 243 yards is tied with Jeff Garcia for the most ever by a 49ers quarterback in his first career start. Kaepernick had 241 yards passing in his career entering Monday night.

Kaepernick joins Philip Rivers (2006) and Aaron Rodgers (2008) as the only quarterbacks in the last 10 seasons to win on Monday Night Football in his first career start.

Kaepernick was excellent when the Bears sent four or fewer pass rushers, completing 10-of-14 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown.

He connected for two plays of at least 30 yards against a Bears defense that had allowed four such plays all seasons with such pressure.

Kaepernick finished with a total QBR of 97.5, the highest in a starting debut for any quarterback over the last five seasons.

Kaepernick’s favorite target on Monday night was Vernon Davis, who broke out with six catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. He had just nine receptions and 101 yards receiving with no touchdowns in his previous four games combined. Davis had a season-high eight targets, five of which were on throws further than 10 yards downfield.

Stat of the Game
The home team has won the last 11 matchups between the Bears and 49ers. The last road win in the series is by the 49ers in the 1988 NFC Championship game at Soldier Field.

What has been the key to the Chicago Bears defensive success this season?

In recent years, the Bears have primarily played a split-safety Cover 2 formation with two defenders in the secondary. This season, they have utilized a single-high safety with fantastic results.

A single-safety defense is defined as one that has one safety deep in pass coverage. The split-safety defense is defined as two safeties ‘split’ deep in coverage.

The idea behind one deep safety as the last line of defense is that the second can be used at the line of scrimmage. It’s important to have cornerbacks who can cover 1-on-1 downfield for a single-safety defense to be effective. Tim Jennings has done just that for the Bears, leading the league with five interceptions on throws more than 10 yards downfield, including three when they are in single-safety coverage.

Let’s take a look at what our video review showed on the Bears defensive excellence. We broke down every coverage used by the Bears excluding penalties, spikes, a fake punt and plays inside the 10.

What the numbers show...

The Bears have balanced their secondary coverage, using a single-high safety on slightly more than half of the pass attempts.

With the Bears having played several blowouts, it’s important to note that when the score has been within one possession, the Bears prefer single-safety coverage on 64 percent of pass attempts.

The Bears single-safety defense is holding opposing quarterbacks to a much lower completion percentage (-14.4 percent) as noted in the chart on the right.

The most noticeable impact is in the short passing game, where the Bears single-high safety has held opponents to a 59 percent completion rate on throws 10 yards or fewer, with five interceptions and no touchdowns.

Their split-safety defense has allowed nearly 75 percent of such throws to be completed.

Looking ahead to Monday Night

The last time Chicago and the San Francisco 49ers met, the Bears "loaded the box" on nearly half of the defensive plays (45 percent), their fourth-highest single game percentage in the last four seasons. In that contest, 49ers quarterback Alex Smith was sacked twice and threw his only interception against a loaded front.

No team in the NFL has used a “loaded front” on defense more often than the Bears (28 percent of plays). A “loaded” box is identified when the defense has more players in the ‘tackle box’ than the number of available blockers on offense.

While evidence suggests Chicago will utilize the single-high formation and load the box often on Monday, they might want to be weary of Colin Kaepernick’s strong arm. His average throw has traveled 10.5 yards downfield this season, the furthest in the league among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts.

The 49ers backup has completed seven of 10 attempts traveling more than 10 yards downfield in his limited time this year, while the league average completion percentage on such throws is 48.9 percent.

Kaepernick could challenge the Bears loaded front downfield, but it should limit his scrambling. He has been quick to run this season, scrambling on seven of his 38 dropbacks (18.4 percent), the highest scramble rate in the league (minimum 10 dropbacks).

The Chicago Bears enter their Monday Night matchup with the San Francisco 49ers having given up back-to-back 100-yard rushers for the first time since Weeks 13 and 14 of the 2009 season.

The 49ers’ rush defense has also struggled, allowing a season-high 159 rush yards to a St. Louis Rams offense that was ranked 20th in the league in rushing entering Week 10.

Jay Cutler is out Monday as is Alex Smith, so the running backs for both teams are likely to be prominently featured. Each offense has a very talented starter, but each team also has a quality backup who could play a huge role in Monday’s matchup.

Let’s take a closer look at what the running backs bring to the table and how each offense utilizes their unique skills.

The starters

Matt Forte is a dynamic, all-around back who presents matchup problems in every facet of the game, but is a particularly dangerous receiver. Since the start of the 2008 season, Forte ranks in the top three among running backs in targets (317), receptions (245) and receiving yards (2,161).

Forte should be targeted often because Jason Campbell has an average throw distance of only 6.6 yards downfield over the last five seasons, the shortest among all quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts.

Frank Gore is a hard-nosed runner who gets the majority of carries for the 49ers. Gore is averaging 5.4 yards a carry, fourth-best among qualified running backs and his highest since 2006. He is also averaging 1.9 yards after contact per rush, his best in the past four seasons.

But Gore gets the yards after contact when it counts. He has converted a first down when he has been contacted before the marker on 17.8 percent of such rushes, the third-highest rate in the league.

The backups

Michael Bush is a big, bruising back who primarily runs between the tackles for the Bears.

Bush is posting career lows in yards per carry (3.7) and yards after contact per carry (1.5), which could have something to do with the predictability of his rush direction. When Bush is in the game, the Bears rush between the tackles on 91.3 percent of rush attempts, the third-highest rate among qualified running backs in the league.

When any other running back is the game, the Bears are more diverse, rushing between the tackles only 75 percent of the time.

Bush still has the talent to be a factor in this game, especially since Steven Jackson rushed for 106 yards between the tackles last week against this 49ers defense.

Kendall Hunter is a speedy, change-of-pace back who is the perfect complement to Gore’s style of running.

The 49ers get Hunter the ball in space. The quarterback has pitched the ball to him on 17 of his 63 carries this year. As a result, 34.9 percent of Hunter’s runs have come outside the tackles, the third-highest rate among qualified running backs this season.

Hunter will be facing a Bears defense that has been struggling with outside rushes, allowing Arian Foster to gash them for a season-high 45 yards in last week’s loss to the Houston Texans.

We know that two backup quarterbacks will start this week, and as many as four. Here’s a look at what they’ve done in the limited playing time.

NICK FOLES, PHI (34.9 Total QBR in Week 10)

Nick Foles went 22-of-32 with a touchdown and an interception in his NFL debut last week. Although Foles threw only one interception (which was returned for a TD), it could have been worse. Foles had two potential interceptions dropped and another interception called back due to a penalty. It was the fourth time this season that a quarterback had multiple interceptions dropped in game. It wasn’t all bad for Foles. He connected on 4-of-6 attempts more than 10 yards downfield, with two of those completions gaining 30-plus yards. Michael Vick had two 30-plus yard plays in a game only twice this season.

BYRON LEFTWICH, PIT (61.7 Total QBR in Week 10)

In his limited playing time since the start of 2008, Byron Leftwich has posted a 52.2 Total QBR, which means he has played at an average level. If there’s one area in particular that Leftwich has performed below average during that time, it’s on deep throws. Leftwich hasn’t completed a pass more than 20 yards downfield since Week 2 of the 2009 season when he was with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and has completed just 4-of-21 attempts of more than 20 yards downfield since the start of 2008. That’s the third worst completion percentage of any quarterback with at least 20 attempts.

JASON CAMPBELL, CHI (21.7 Total QBR in Week 10)

Similar to Leftwich, Jason Campbell’s 50.9 Total QBR over the last five seasons puts his performance at an average level, but he may be able to capably fill Jay Cutler’s void. The San Francisco 49ers have sent four or fewer pass rushers 78.8 percent of the time since the start of last season, that’s the second-highest rate in the NFL. Both Cutler and Campbell have posted Total QBRs over 60.0 against such pressure, with Campbell actually posting a better completion percentage.

Don’t expect Campbell to air it out too often, though. Of the 30 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts in the last five seasons, Campbell’s 6.6 yard average throw distance ranks as the shortest. Cutler’s 8.2 average is tied for the ninth highest.

COLIN KAEPERNICK, SF (40.7 Total QBR in Week 10)

Colin Kaepernick’s biggest strength so far this season has been running the ball. Kaepernick has averaged 8.8 yards per rush on 14 designed runs. That rate is best among quarterbacks, and 3.8 yards higher than Cam Newton’s 5.0 designed yards per rush average. However, Kaepernick might be too quick to run on pass plays this season, scrambling on seven of his 38 dropbacks (18.4 percent). Not only is that the highest scramble rate in the NFL (minimum 20 dropbacks), but it’s nearly double that of the next highest quarterback (Robert Griffin III, 9.7 percent).

This is the latest installment of a weekly NFL discussion that takes a closer look at one of the week’s hot topics. Today’s discussion focuses on whether the Houston Texans or Chicago Bears have the better defensive front seven.

TEXANS HAVE THE BETTER DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

The Texans boast a league-leading 18.0 Total QBR allowed and have the best defensive front seven in the NFL. While there’s no arguing the Bears’ ferocity with the second-ranked Total QBR defense, there’s also no denying the unstoppable J.J. Watt.

At the season’s midpoint, the Texans star is leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Watt ranks third in the NFL with 8.5 tackles for loss. Brian Urlacher and Major Wright are Chicago’s top two in TFL and combined don’t equal that, not to mention Wright plays in the secondary. Watt is the league’s co-leader with six batted passes and nine total passes defended, tied with three cornerbacks. The icing on the cake is Watt’s outright lead with 10.5 sacks.

It isn’t just Watt however; if you include all defensive linemen and linebackers, the Texans lead the NFL with 16 batted passes and 22 total passes defended.

The Texans are the NFL’s most aggressive pressure unit, as they send five or more pass rushers on 44.9 percent of opponent dropbacks. They rely heavily on the front seven to do so, as that fifth member is a defensive back only 21.7 percent of the time. The Bears use a member of the secondary to help with added pressure more than twice that at 42.5 percent of dropbacks.

--Dan Riccio

BEARS HAVE THE BETTER DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN

The Bears’ dominant front seven is not really a front seven because they can rotate so many impact pass rushers on their line. Seven of Chicago’s defensive linemen have combined for 23 of the Bears’ sacks, second-most by a defensive line in the NFL.

The Bears have 21 sacks, all by defensive linemen, when they send four or fewer pass rushers, tied for most in the NFL. The defensive line’s ability to get to the quarterback with standard pressure allows their athletic linebackers to drop into coverage and make plays. Bears linebackers are second in the league in defended passes (11) and fourth in interceptions (3). All three picks were returned for touchdowns.

Even better, the Bears’ front seven step up on third down. Overall, opponents have converted only 33 percent of third downs against the Bears, the fourth-best rate in the NFL. The Bears have an NFL-leading 12 sacks by front seven players on third downs and have sacked, hit or put quarterbacks under duress on 33 percent of third downs, the fifth-highest rate in the league. As a result, quarterbacks have a 9.1 QBR on third down against the Bears, second-lowest in the NFL.

The Texans may have Watt, but the Bears’ front seven is deeper, allowing defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli to rotate fresh pass rushers and drop more players into coverage where they can exploit quarterback mistakes. Those mistakes usually lead to six points for the Bears.

--Mike Bonzagni

The two things that have been integral to the Chicago Bears success this season- defensive scoring and Jay Cutler’s fourth-quarter success- came through one more time in a win over the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers were true to form as well, succumbing in a close game yet again. It’s something they’ve done often recently.

Let’s recap the key notes and numbers from a dramatic victory.

An unusual kind of win
This was the third time the Panthers have ever lost a game in which they led by 10 or more entering the 4th quarter (entered 57-2 all-time in such games)

The Bears have won twice in the last 30 games in which they trailed by at least 10 points entering the fourth quarter.

They snapped a 16-game losing streak in such games, winning for the first time since Week 6 in 2006 when they rallied to defeat the Arizona Cardinals, 24-23.

The Bears are now 4-0 all-time at home against the Panthers.

The Panthers are 1-10 over the last two seasons in games decided by seven points or less.

Cutler slices up Panthers in fourth
The Panthers went conservative in their pass rush in the fourth quarter and Cutler made them pay the price.

Cutler went 12-for-14 for 106 yards and a touchdown in the final 15 minutes, all of which was done against four or fewer pass rushers.

As the chart on the right shows, that pass rush worked very effectively against Cutler in the first three quarters of the game.

But Cutler was great in the fourth quarter once again, posting a 92.4 Total QBR. He entered the day with an NFL-best 94.2 Total QBR in the fourth quarter.

Six Pick-Sixes!
The interception return for a touchdown by Tim Jennings was the Bears sixth interception returned for a touchdown this season, the most-ever by a team in its first seven games of a season.
The six touchdowns are a Bears single-season record and only three shy of the record set by the 1961 Chargers.

Both of the Cam Newton’s interceptions were thrown against the Bears’ four-man pass rush.
The Bears entered the game limiting opposing QBs to a 26.0 Total QBR sending such pressure, including 11 interceptions, both of which ranked best in the NFL.

Good as Gould
Robbie Gould’s game-winning field goal was the 200th of his NFL career. Gould ranks second in Bears history in field goals made, trailing only Kevin Butler’s 243.

Gould’s 200 field goals since entering the league in 2005 are the third-most in the NFL in that span. Only David Akers (212) and Rob Bironas (201) have more.

After turning the ball over four times in their previous four games combined, the Detroit Lions lost three fumbles and had one pass intercepted Monday en route to a 13-7 defeat against the Chicago Bears.

It was the third game this season in which the Bears had four-or-more takeaways and brought their total for the season to 21. Their +13 turnover differential is the best in the league.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that’s Chicago's most takeaways through its first six games of a season since Dick Butkus and company had 23 through six games in 1971, four of which were on interceptions by Butkus.

Over the last 15 seasons (1998–2012), the only other team with 21 takeaways through six games was the 2005 Bengals, who also had 21.

Matthew Stafford was responsible for one of the Lions turnovers as he threw an interception late in the fourth quarter. It came when the Bears sent four pass rushers.

Entering Monday’s game, Stafford had faced four-or-fewer pass rushers on 87.9 percent of dropbacks, more than any other quarterback in the league.

The Bears also recorded two of their three sacks when sending four pass rushers. They now have a league-high 17 sacks and 11 interceptions on the season when sending such pressure.

The Lions turned the ball over on three of their 12 plays in the red zone Monday, bringing their season total to a league-high five.

Calvin Johnson was not a factor in the game as he caught only three of his 11 targets for 34 yards, breaking his streak of five consecutive road games with at least 90 yards. Johnson’s one drop against the Bears matched the number he had in his last 10 road games combined.

Lovie Smith improves to 9-2 on Monday Night Football. Among active coaches, only Mike Tomlin has a better win percentage on Monday nights, with a minimum five games.

The Chicago Bears host the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football (8 ET, ESPN), the latest edition of the second-most played rivalry in NFL history (165th meeting). The Bears have won seven of the last eight games with the Lions but Detroit holds the edge on Monday night, winning four of five on the weeknight stage.

The two teams enter their Week 7 matchup on different ends of the standings. The Bears are 4-1 for the second time in the last three seasons and looking for their first start of 5-1 or better since 2006 when they began the year 6-0. The Lions, however, are last in the NFC North at 2-3, albeit coming off of an OT win against the Eagles in Week 6.

If the Lions are going to turn things around, they will need to get off to better starts. Entering Week 7, the Lions had been outscored by 33 points this season in the first three quarters (26th in NFL) but had outscored their opponents by 22 points in the fourth quarter (4th in NFL). Only the Broncos (79) have scored more fourth-quarter points than the Lions this season (73).

Perhaps one reason behind the Lions’ inconsistency has been their inability to stretch the field. Matthew Stafford ranked among the top 10 quarterbacks in the league in both completion percentage and touchdown passes on throws more than 20 yards downfield last season. So far in 2012, Stafford is completing under 30 percent of such passes with an interception and no touchdowns.

On the other sideline, Jay Cutler has the NFL’s second-highest average throw distance (9.9 yards downfield), but has actually had his success when the Bears have used more conservative personnel groupings.

Entering Monday, Cutler had a higher completion percentage, more touchdown passes, and fewer interceptions with two or fewer receivers on the field versus snaps with three or more. He also connected on six of his seven 30-yard completions this season in two-receiver sets.

Against the Lions last season, Cutler completed 70 percent of his attempts and threw a touchdown pass with two or fewer receivers on the field. He completed 64 percent of passes on all other snaps against the Lions with no touchdowns.

Defensively, the Bears have held opponents to a league-low 14.2 points per game in 2012 and they have done it by forcing turnovers. Chicago entered Week 7 tied for the NFL lead with 17 takeaways this season including a league-high 13 interceptions.

Perhaps most remarkably, five of those 13 interceptions have been returned for touchdowns. No team in NFL history had ever returned five picks for scores in its first five games of a season and no team in Bears history had done in three straight games as this year’s team has done from Weeks 3-5 (Bye in Week 6).

Will they make it four in a row against the Lions? Detroit quarterbacks have thrown four “pick-sixes” over the last two seasons—-only the Titans (5) and Chargers (5) have thrown more over that span.

The Chicago Bears defense lived up to its hype in the Monday Night spotlight against the Dallas Cowboys, intercepting Tony Romo five times in the 34-18 win.

The Bears now lead the NFL with 11 interceptions and 14 total takeaways this season. Two of the picks were returned for touchdowns, marking just the fifth time since the merger that the Bears have returned at least two interceptions for a score in a game.

Defensive Stars
Charles Tillman started the pick-fest with a 25-yard interception return for a touchdown less than three minutes before halftime. It was his 31st career interception and the sixth he's returned for a score, extending his own franchise record.

Major Wright recorded his first career multiple-pick game, with both interceptions coming in the second half. The last Bears player with at least two picks after halftime was Lance Briggs in 2008 vs the St. Louis Rams.

Speaking of Briggs, he had a career-best 74-yard interception return for a touchdown in the third quarter. It was the longest pick returned for a score by a Bears player on the road since the merger in 1970.

Four of the five picks came when the Bears sent four or fewer pass rushers, giving them eight interceptions this season with standard pressure, tied for the most in the league with the Rams.

Offensive Keys to Victory
Jay Cutler was an efficient 18-of-24 for 275 yards, two touchdowns and – most importantly – no picks. This is just the second time Cutler has thrown for at least 275 yards while completing 75 percent of his throws. He also did it on December 7, 2008 playing for the Denver Broncos against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Cutler was cool under pressure, most notably after halftime. He completed all six of his throws for 127 yards against five or more pass rushers in the second half. He finished with a 78 percent completion rate while averaging more than 16 yards per attempts when facing added pressure.

This performance was a nice turnaround for Cutler, who entered Monday with the second-worst completion percentage against added pressure (45 percent) in the first three weeks.

Romo Picked Clean
Romo had a night to forget, throwing five interceptions for the second time in his career. Coincidentally (or maybe not), his other five-pick game was October 8, 2007 against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.

The Elias Sports Bureau reports that Romo is the first player ever to have multiple five-interception games on Monday Night Football. Romo is the second Cowboys quarterback with two five-interception games in a career, joining Eddie LeBaron. He is also now the only active quarterback with two five-pick games.

After sending four or fewer pass rushers on almost two-thirds of Tony Romo’s dropbacks in the first half, the Bears brought such pressure on all but one of Romo’s dropbacks after halftime. It paid off, as he threw four interceptions in those situations.

Romo did have one statistical highlight in the loss. He threw his 154th career touchdown, moving past Roger Staubach for third-most in Cowboys history. He needs one more to tie Danny White for second place.

Stat of Game
How important was this win for the Bears, who now stand 3-1? Since 1990, almost 65 percent of teams starting 3-1 have made the playoffs. Over that same span, only 35 percent of the teams that start 2-2 have reached the postseason.

Tony Romo looks to continue his climb up the Dallas Cowboys record book on Monday night. He’ll need to contend with the Chicago Bears' relentless pass rush, as well as some of his usual targets that haven’t yet delivered.

Romo is currently tied for third most touchdown passes (153) in Cowboys history with Roger Staubach. With two more, he’d tie Danny White for second, and Troy Aikman’s franchise record is 12 away.

To get there on Monday, he may need two of his familiar targets to break out.

Despite ranking second on the Cowboys with 20 targets, don’t look for Dez Bryant to be on the receiving end of one of those touchdown throws.

Bryant hasn’t been thrown to once in the red zone this season, after leading the Cowboys with 13 red zone targets in 2011. Entering Week 4, only five receivers had more targets without a receiving touchdown this season.

With only eight receptions for 76 yards through three games, Jason Witten isn’t putting up his traditional big numbers. At this point last season, he had 19 catches for 272 yards.

Romo has completed only 44 percent (8-for-18) of his passes to Witten this season, well down from the 74 percent he’d completed over the previous three seasons. Much of that falls on Witten. He entered Week 4 leading the NFL in drops with six.

The two have particularly had issues connecting inside the painted numbers, with Witten dropping half of his 12 targets. Romo is 3-of-12 with an interception when targeting Witten there. Last year, he caught 50-of-64 targets inside the numbers.

Romo’s biggest challenge on Monday night will be a Bears defense that is rapidly racking up sacks. Chicago entered the week leading the NFL with 14 sacks and second in takeaways with nine.

The 14 sacks are their most through three games since totaling 24 in 1987. It’s two more than the 1985 Bears had after three games.

Chicago’s defense is getting it done despite using a standard pass rush. The Bears have used a four-man pass rush on 77.5 percent of dropbacks, sixth-highest in the league.

Last year the Bears defense sent four or fewer rushers at a similar rate (74.2 percent), but did not get their 14th sack until Week 7.

That pass rush figures to chase Romo out of the pocket on Monday. That might not be a bad thing for the Cowboys. Since 2010, Romo has 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions when throwing from outside the pocket. No quarterback has more touchdowns without an interception in that span.