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BPI vs Bracketology

2/20/2015

Joe Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports

Bracketology has Ohio State as a 7-seed, but BPI would have the Buckeyes as a 3-seed.On Thursday, ESPN's Joe Lunardi released his latest Bracketology update, and there were some noticeable difference between his choices and ESPN's Basketball Power Index. Here are a few worth examining:

Teams BPI values more highly

Of all the teams BPI believes are seeded too low, Ohio State is the one that stands out. BPI has OSU ranked 11th (a 3-seed) despite a 19-7 record, but Bracketology has the Buckeyes as a 7-seed.

Under-seeded Teams According To BPI

Ohio State has excelled against lower competition (16-0 vs. teams ranked outside of the BPI top 50) but struggled against top opponents.

All seven of the Buckeyes’ losses have come against opponents in the BPI top 50. Even in those losses, Ohio State performed admirably, losing each game by single digits and posting a Game BPI above 50 in all of them.

The Buckeyes are one of six teams that do not have a Game BPI below 50 this season, meaning OSU does not have any particularly “bad” games.

Teams BPI would seed lower

Over-seeded Teams According To BPI

Among the teams seeded at 8 or higher in Bracketology, Maryland is one that stands out as a potential to be upset. The Terrapins are still projected to be a 5-seed in Bracketology despite losing three of their past eight games -- all road conference games. BPI, meanwhile, has Maryland as an 8-seed.

The Terps rank 80th in net efficiency; every other projected top-5 seed ranks in the top 60.

Teams left out of the tournament

There are three notable teams BPI would have in the tournament that were left out by Bracketology: BYU, Florida and Davidson.

Teams Left Out Of Tournament
By Bracketology

BYU has lost eight games this season, but, as with Ohio State, all of the losses were by single digits. The Cougars’ average margin of defeat is 4.8 points, compared with an average margin of victory of 19.2 PPG in their 20 wins.

The Gators have the worst “luck rating” according to kenpom.com, have lost six one-possession games and have played the hardest schedule in the nation, according to BPI’s SOS ranking.

Davidson is hurt by a weak schedule (105th in BPI/151st in RPI) and has suffered some “bad losses” recently. But Davidson is efficient -- ranking fifth in offensive efficiency and 24th in net efficiency -- meaning the Wildcats could make some noise if they were to make the tournament.

Teams in the tournament BPI would have left out

BPI disagrees with Bracketology on a number of teams' current tournament statuses, a sampling of which is in the chart on the right.

Teams In According To Bracketology
That BPI Would Have Left Out

Of note, Temple is the most egregious tournament team, according to BPI. Temple has a marquee win (77-52 vs Kansas) but ranks 114th in net efficiency while playing the 86th-ranked schedule.

The Owls have an important game Sunday against another potential tournament team: Tulsa.