Stats & Info: Duke Johnson

Winston’s big first quarter leads Seminoles

October, 27, 2013
Below are some storylines from Week 9 of the college football season using ESPN’s new set of analytical storytelling metrics for college football.

There are items that include college QBR, team offense/defense/special teams efficiency ratings (also known as expected points added), and win probability.

For more background on these metrics, read Dean Oliver’s primer on all of them and his explanation of college Total QBR. For complete college Total QBR information, go here.

Oregon rides defense to victory
Oregon outscored UCLA 28-0 in the second half to win its eighth straight game of the season. Its 28 points were split between the offense and defense.

Defensively, Oregon held UCLA to 94 yards in the second half, including 21 pass yards on 10 attempts. The Ducks added 13.6 expected points in the second half, matching their per-game total entering the game, which ranked third in the FBS.

Alabama putting teams away by halftime
In the six games since Alabama allowed 42 points to Texas A&M, its most under Nick Saban, the Tide have five more touchdowns (31) than their opponents have points (26).

In those games, the Tide have outscored their opponents 151-0 in the first half and have had an average win probability of 95 percent at halftime.

Miami comes back on heels of its running game, again
Miami entered the fourth quarter trailing in each of its past two games. The Hurricanes had less than a 25 percent chance of winning in the fourth quarter in each of those games.

Miami came back to win in those games largely because it got its run game going. Against UNC, Dallas Crawford rushed for 69 yards in the fourth quarter, including a 3-yard game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds remaining. Similarly, Duke Johnson ran for 85 yards in the fourth quarter against Wake Forest, including a 1-yard game-winning touchdown with 53 seconds remaining.

In the fourth quarter of those games, the Hurricanes added 6.21 expected points per game on the ground. That means if Miami had had an average rush offense in the fourth quarter (EPA of 0), and all other things remained the same, it would have lost each of its last two games by about three points.

Winston impresses in the first quarter
Jameis Winston threw for 229 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter against NC State, the most pass yards in the first quarter by a quarterback this season.

Winston had a 99.4 Total QBR after one quarter, and his QBR did not fall below 96.

Winston now has a Total QBR of 89 or higher in each of his past four games. During that time, he has the highest Total QBR in the nation.

South Carolina’s comeback
South Carolina’s win probability fell to below three percent in the middle of the third quarter before the Gamecocks scored 17 straight points to send the game to overtime.

Inside the matchup: Johnson vs Gators D

September, 4, 2013

Jared Wickerham/Getty ImagesThe object on Saturday will be to get Duke Johnson into space in which he can use his big-play ability.
Miami is slated to take on its in-state rival Florida this Saturday (12 ET on ESPN), and one area to watch will be the running game.

The Gators have given up just two rushes of at least 50 yards in the last 10 seasons, three fewer than any other team in FBS. The last time Florida allowed a 50-yard run was against Furman in 2011.

Last season, the Gators ranked fourth in the FBS in rushing yards per game allowed (95). In the season opener against Toledo on Saturday, they allowed 50 rush yards.

As a true freshman last year, Miami's Duke Johnson averaged 6.8 yards per carry, which ranked ninth in FBS among qualified running backs.

He had nine rushes of at least 20 yards, including five that went for at least 50 yards. Among all returning FBS players, no one had more rushes of 50 yards or longer last season.

What’s staggering about his big plays was that these rushes were not simple runs through a gaping hole. In Johnson’s five rushes of 50-plus yards he gained 292 total yards, 118 after contact.

Johnson also had 27 kickoff returns that averaged 33 yards per return, second highest in FBS behind UCF’s Quincy McDuffie (34 yards per kickoff return).

Johnson continued his torrid pace last Saturday against Florida Atlantic, rushing for an FBS-high 186 yards on 19 carries. In that game, Johnson had rushes of 43 and 53 yards, the latter of which went for a touchdown. He also added a 38-yard reception on a dump-off pass from Stephen Morris.

Johnson needs 117 rush yards this week to match Lamar Miller in 2011 for the most by a Miami player in the first two games of a season since 2000.

But the Florida defense has allowed only one 100-yard rusher in its last 16 games (Todd Gurley of Georgia last October).