Stats & Info: Jayson Werth
Hamels was right: Harper got calls
May, 23, 2012
May 23
1:02
PM ET
By William Cohen and Jeremy Lundblad, ESPN Stats & Info | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Richard LipskiBryce Harper was intentionally hit by Cole Hamels on May 6 for, what Hamels said, was getting calls a rookie shouldn't.
Tonight will be Cole Hamels first start against the Nationals since admitting to intentionally plunking Bryce Harper in the back in the first inning of a game on May 6 (a 9-3 Phillies win).
Harper might have gained his revenge already as he went 2-for-3 with a double and a run scored against Hamels after being intentionally hit.
One of the reasons Hamels said he hit Harper was because he thought Harper was getting calls that a rookie shouldn’t.
In the two games against the Phillies before being plunked, Harper took 25 pitches that were called balls. Of those 25, four were actually in the strike zone (16.0 percent), according to Inside Edge pitch-location tracking. Only Jayson Werth (5) saw more such pitches in the two games for either team.
The Phillies were not as fortunate. Only seven of 89 called balls against their hitters were in the strike zone (7.9 percent), meaning that they caught a break less than half as often as Harper.
Pitching Matchup
Edwin Jackson is off to the best start of his career. He is striking out hitters at the highest rate of his career (8.0 K/9) while walking fewer batters than ever (1.7 BB/9 – 10th-best in the NL). He correspondingly is on pace to have the lowest qualified ERA of his career at 3.31.
The key to Jackson’s success might be as simple as getting ahead in the count more often. He had been improving slightly each season, but took a leap to another level this season as he has thrown a strike 66 percent of the time on his first pitch, 14th-best among MLB starting pitchers (the league average is 59 percent). From 2009-11, Jackson never had a first-pitch strike percentage higher than 58.
Since dropping his first start of the season, Hamels is 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA and a .212 opponent batting average over his last seven starts.
His seven straight quality starts is tied for the second-longest active streak in the majors and he’s helped keep a Phillies team afloat that’s battling a host of injuries.
Hitters to Watch
Adam LaRoche is 4-for-16 lifetime against Hamels, but all four of his hits have gone for extra bases, including three home runs, giving him a 1.208 OPS against Hamels.
Since being plunked, Harper is just 15-for-56 (.246 BA), but has picked things up recently. Over his last 10 games, Harper is hitting .325 (13-for-40) with six RBI.
AP Photo/LM OteroNeftali Feliz pitched seven shutout innings in his first major-league start.Feliz was facing off with a familiar foe as the Texas Rangers hosted the Seattle Mariners. Entering the game, the Mariners had not recorded a hit in 48 at-bats against Feliz. Justin Smoak finally broke the hitless drought with two outs in the fourth inning.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 58 at-bats before allowing a hit is the longest streak to start a career against one team in the expansion era (since 1961). The record was previously held by Billy Wagner, who held the Pittsburgh Pirates hitless in their first 48 at-bats from 1996 to 2001.
Feliz was able to handle the move to the bullpen by mixing up his pitches. As a reliever, he threw a fastball on 80 percent of his pitches. The first time through the Seattle order on Tuesday, he threw heat on 69 percent of his pitches. After that, he relied on his fastball only 39 percent of the time.
For the game, Feliz mixed in sliders on 26 percent of his pitches and changeups on 23 percent. Mariners hitters were 1-for-8 in at-bats ending with a changeup, including two strikeouts.
Bard wasn’t as fortunate in his transition to the rotation. He allowed five earned runs without recording an out in the sixth inning as the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Boston Red Sox 7-3.
In three years as a reliever, he threw fastballs 71 percent of the time and sliders 21 percent of the time. The key to his success out of the bullpen was his slider. Opponents missed nearly half the times they swung at the pitch. He was able to coax swings on sliders outside the zone nearly a third of the time.
On Tuesday, he threw the slider 35 percent of the time and was just as successful. The Blue Jays missed on nine of their 14 swings against the slider and four of Bard’s six strikeouts came on the pitch. But they were able to tee off on his fastball, getting eight hits in 17 at-bats ending with the pitch.
Bard was unable to establish a third pitch during the game. In the first four innings, he threw only four changeups and all of them missed the strike zone. He found the zone with three of six changeups to his last five batters and induced a groundout by Adam Lind.
Quick hits
Freddy Garcia tied the American League record with five wild pitches in his start against the Baltimore Orioles.
Jayson Werth recorded his eighth career four-hit game, his first since June 27, 2009.
The Detroit Tigers are the last undefeated team in the American League, despite not getting a decision from their starters.
The Atlanta Braves snapped a nine-game losing streak dating to last season with a win at the Houston Astros.
Andre Ethier celebrated his 30th birthday by hitting the game-winning home run in the bottom of the eighth, his 11th career go-ahead home run in the eighth inning or later.
Dan Braunstein contributed to this post.
Nationals lock up hot corner-stone
February, 26, 2012
Feb 26
2:05
PM ET
By Justin Havens & John Parolin | ESPN.com
Earlier today, the Washington Nationals and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman agreed to a six-year, $100 million contract extension. The contract reportedly includes an option for a seventh year that would keep Zimmerman in Washington through 2020, if exercised. There are several angles for potential analysis, centering around both the historical place of the contract as well as Zimmerman’s own performance.
Zimmerman
Angle No. 1: The Contract
Zimmerman’s agreement with the Nationals immediately became the second-largest contract issued in franchise history, falling short only of the free-agent commitment the team made to outfielder Jayson Werth last offseason. When one considers the two years and $26 million that is remaining on his current contract, the Nationals owe Zimmerman $126 million through 2019. With the agreement, Zimmerman becomes one of just six players to be locked up through at least 2019, joining Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp.
The average annual value of the contract works out to $16.7 million, the second-most of any third baseman, behind only Alex Rodriguez, inching past the $16 million average of Adrian Beltre’s recent deal with the Texas Rangers. It is also the third-most lucrative extension signed by a player from the 2005 MLB draft class, behind only Tulowitzki and Braun.
All told, the Nationals have now committed $126 million to Zimmerman starting in 2012. That is the 10th-most money owed to any player in baseball by any team starting this upcoming season.
Angle No. 2: The Performance
Six full seasons into his MLB career, Zimmerman has produced several elite seasons, while also having several seasons marred by injury. There is little question that when he is healthy, he is capable of producing borderline MVP-caliber seasons.
Since the start of the 2006 season -- Zimmerman’s first full year in the majors -- he ranks 11th among all position players in Wins Above Replacement, ahead of such notable large-contract recipients as Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Reyes. He ranks third among third basemen in WAR, behind Rodriguez and David Wright. Much of that value is derived from his defense – according to Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved, Zimmerman ranks third among all position players since 2007 with 73 runs saved and has finished in the top three among third basemen in the category in four of the last five seasons.
He has also produced some of the greatest seasons in Nationals/Expos franchise history. His 2009 and 2010 seasons rank second and fifth, respectively, in franchise history, with his 2009 mark of 7.3 WAR ranking behind only Vladimir Guerrero's 2002 season (7.6) and tied with Tim Raines in 1985 and Gary Carter in 1984.
But while Zimmerman has displayed the ability to be an impact player at times, he’s struggled to do so consistently. 2011 was the second season in the last four that was noticeably impacted by injuries, as Zimmerman played in only 101 games. The injury issues may have had an impact on his performance; between 2009-10, he produced an average line of .299 BA, .893 OPS, 29 home runs and 96 RBI. In 2011, his OPS dropped nearly 100 points to .798, while he hit just 12 home runs. Specifically, Zimmerman has experienced a decline in his power output since 2009, with a corresponding increase in the rate at which he’s hitting balls on the ground.
Presumably, Zimmerman has provided the Nationals with everything they expected when they made him the fourth overall pick in the 2005 MLB draft, as he ranks first in the entire draft class in Wins Above Replacement to this point, ahead of the likes of Tulowitzki, Braun and Justin Upton. But the value of the extension will be based on Zimmerman’s ability to stay on the field and reverse the downward trend in his power output.
It also raises the question of what the Nationals plan to do with third basemen Anthony Rendon, the sixth overall pick from the 2011 draft, to whom Washington gave the ninth-highest major league contract in draft history. But that is an issue for another day. For now, the Nationals locked up the franchise’s best player through 2019 and did so at a total cost of less than they paid Jayson Werth last offseason.
Zimmerman
Angle No. 1: The Contract
Zimmerman’s agreement with the Nationals immediately became the second-largest contract issued in franchise history, falling short only of the free-agent commitment the team made to outfielder Jayson Werth last offseason. When one considers the two years and $26 million that is remaining on his current contract, the Nationals owe Zimmerman $126 million through 2019. With the agreement, Zimmerman becomes one of just six players to be locked up through at least 2019, joining Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp.
The average annual value of the contract works out to $16.7 million, the second-most of any third baseman, behind only Alex Rodriguez, inching past the $16 million average of Adrian Beltre’s recent deal with the Texas Rangers. It is also the third-most lucrative extension signed by a player from the 2005 MLB draft class, behind only Tulowitzki and Braun.
All told, the Nationals have now committed $126 million to Zimmerman starting in 2012. That is the 10th-most money owed to any player in baseball by any team starting this upcoming season.
Angle No. 2: The Performance
Six full seasons into his MLB career, Zimmerman has produced several elite seasons, while also having several seasons marred by injury. There is little question that when he is healthy, he is capable of producing borderline MVP-caliber seasons.
Since the start of the 2006 season -- Zimmerman’s first full year in the majors -- he ranks 11th among all position players in Wins Above Replacement, ahead of such notable large-contract recipients as Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Reyes. He ranks third among third basemen in WAR, behind Rodriguez and David Wright. Much of that value is derived from his defense – according to Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved, Zimmerman ranks third among all position players since 2007 with 73 runs saved and has finished in the top three among third basemen in the category in four of the last five seasons.
He has also produced some of the greatest seasons in Nationals/Expos franchise history. His 2009 and 2010 seasons rank second and fifth, respectively, in franchise history, with his 2009 mark of 7.3 WAR ranking behind only Vladimir Guerrero's 2002 season (7.6) and tied with Tim Raines in 1985 and Gary Carter in 1984.
But while Zimmerman has displayed the ability to be an impact player at times, he’s struggled to do so consistently. 2011 was the second season in the last four that was noticeably impacted by injuries, as Zimmerman played in only 101 games. The injury issues may have had an impact on his performance; between 2009-10, he produced an average line of .299 BA, .893 OPS, 29 home runs and 96 RBI. In 2011, his OPS dropped nearly 100 points to .798, while he hit just 12 home runs. Specifically, Zimmerman has experienced a decline in his power output since 2009, with a corresponding increase in the rate at which he’s hitting balls on the ground.
Presumably, Zimmerman has provided the Nationals with everything they expected when they made him the fourth overall pick in the 2005 MLB draft, as he ranks first in the entire draft class in Wins Above Replacement to this point, ahead of the likes of Tulowitzki, Braun and Justin Upton. But the value of the extension will be based on Zimmerman’s ability to stay on the field and reverse the downward trend in his power output.
It also raises the question of what the Nationals plan to do with third basemen Anthony Rendon, the sixth overall pick from the 2011 draft, to whom Washington gave the ninth-highest major league contract in draft history. But that is an issue for another day. For now, the Nationals locked up the franchise’s best player through 2019 and did so at a total cost of less than they paid Jayson Werth last offseason.
With the All-Star break upon us, we take a look at some of the game’s best players who are having anything but their best years. We present to you, Major League Baseball’s “All-Struggling Team – Hitter’s Edition.”
SuzukiC: Kurt Suzuki, Oakland Athletics (.225 BA, .284 OBP, 7 HR, 22 RBI)
A .264 career hitter who averages 10 HR and 60 RBI per season.
1B: Derrek Lee, Baltimore Orioles (.235 BA, .294 OBP, 9 HR, 28 RBI)
Still stellar in the field, but Lee is far off his career pace of .282, 22 HR, 73 RBI.
2B: Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves (.185 BA, .257 OBP, 15 HR, 34 RBI)
After career highs in average (.287), HR (33) and RBI (105) in 2010, Uggla has fallen hard.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins (.242 BA, 8 HR, 37 RBI)
Ramirez has hit .310 with 4 HR and 20 RBI in 25 games since coming off the DL, so he might approach career averages of 21 HR, 65 RBI, .313.
3B: Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners (.183 BA, .231 OBP, 6 CS)
His numbers continue to plummet in the two years since coming to Seattle. He had been a .291 career hitter (.363 OBP) who averages 35 steals a season.
OF: Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.213 BA, .262 OBP, 6 HR, 21 RBI)
He appears poised to have his lowest RBI total and batting average of his career this season.
OF: Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians (.244 BA, 5 HR, 28 RBI)
According to Fangraphs.com, Choo was worth 11 wins over a replacement-level player in 2009 and 2010. Battling injuries in 2011, Choo has a 1.5 WAR rating.
WerthOF: Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals (.215 BA, 10 HR, 31 RBI)
What does seven years and $126 million buy you? Not as much as you’d expect.
DH: Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox (.160 BA, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 104 K)
Dunn has been injured and ineffective. In fact, in the first year of a four-year, $56 million contract, he’s on pace to have the worst offensive season in the history of baseball.
A .264 career hitter who averages 10 HR and 60 RBI per season.
1B: Derrek Lee, Baltimore Orioles (.235 BA, .294 OBP, 9 HR, 28 RBI)
Still stellar in the field, but Lee is far off his career pace of .282, 22 HR, 73 RBI.
2B: Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves (.185 BA, .257 OBP, 15 HR, 34 RBI)
After career highs in average (.287), HR (33) and RBI (105) in 2010, Uggla has fallen hard.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins (.242 BA, 8 HR, 37 RBI)
Ramirez has hit .310 with 4 HR and 20 RBI in 25 games since coming off the DL, so he might approach career averages of 21 HR, 65 RBI, .313.
3B: Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners (.183 BA, .231 OBP, 6 CS)
His numbers continue to plummet in the two years since coming to Seattle. He had been a .291 career hitter (.363 OBP) who averages 35 steals a season.
OF: Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.213 BA, .262 OBP, 6 HR, 21 RBI)
He appears poised to have his lowest RBI total and batting average of his career this season.
OF: Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians (.244 BA, 5 HR, 28 RBI)
According to Fangraphs.com, Choo was worth 11 wins over a replacement-level player in 2009 and 2010. Battling injuries in 2011, Choo has a 1.5 WAR rating.
What does seven years and $126 million buy you? Not as much as you’d expect.
DH: Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox (.160 BA, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 104 K)
Dunn has been injured and ineffective. In fact, in the first year of a four-year, $56 million contract, he’s on pace to have the worst offensive season in the history of baseball.
How Nationals have battled back to .500
June, 23, 2011
6/23/11
1:51
PM ET
By John McTigue | ESPN.com
The Washington Nationals are 14-6 in June -- including 10-1 in their past 11 games -- with a chance to move above .500 on Thursday against the Seattle Mariners.
They’ve done this without big production from Jayson Werth and with limited help from Ryan Zimmerman, who's batting .229 since returning from the disabled list on June 14.
Washington’s group of rising stars and relative unknowns have been finding ways to win with pitching, hitting and defense.
The Nationals have a team ERA of 2.71 in June, third-best in the majors this month behind the Minnesota Twins (2.08) and the Philadelphia Phillies (2.28). Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan are leading the charge after making some changes.
Zimmermann has steadily seen his ERA drop this season: 4.55 in April; 3.23 in May; and 1.32 in June. Early in the season, Zimmermann kept too many pitches in the strike zone and wasn’t generating swings and misses. As the season has progressed, Zimmermann has kept his pitches -- specifically his fastball and curve -- out of the zone more and has generated more misses.
Lannan is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in five starts this month. (He was 2-5 with a 4.40 ERA in the first two months of the season.) Lannan is throwing his changeup more in June and locating it better.
In April and May, 36.5 percent of Lannan’s changeups were thrown over the middle of the plate. In June, only 17.6 percent have been over the middle. Opponents are batting just .190 against the change in June, compared to .333 in April and May.
Offensively, the Nationals have hit 20 home runs in June, tied for fourth-most in the National League. Leading the way has been Michael Morse, who has hit six homers and 19 RBIs and has a 1.002 OPS.
His tear started in May and has carried over to June. Morse’s struggles early on were against fastballs, hitting .211 with one HR in 38 at-bats ending on fastballs in April. Since May 1, Morse is hitting .356 with a home run once every nine at-bats.
Defensively, Washington has committed 13 errors in the past 30 days with a .988 fielding percentage, both the fourth-best rates in the league.
Behind the plate, Wilson Ramos quietly has become one of the most dangerous catchers to run against. Excluding pitcher pickoffs, Ramos has thrown out 40.0 percent of runners in June and has the second-highest rate this season.
They’ve done this without big production from Jayson Werth and with limited help from Ryan Zimmerman, who's batting .229 since returning from the disabled list on June 14.
Washington’s group of rising stars and relative unknowns have been finding ways to win with pitching, hitting and defense.
The Nationals have a team ERA of 2.71 in June, third-best in the majors this month behind the Minnesota Twins (2.08) and the Philadelphia Phillies (2.28). Jordan Zimmermann and John Lannan are leading the charge after making some changes.
Zimmermann has steadily seen his ERA drop this season: 4.55 in April; 3.23 in May; and 1.32 in June. Early in the season, Zimmermann kept too many pitches in the strike zone and wasn’t generating swings and misses. As the season has progressed, Zimmermann has kept his pitches -- specifically his fastball and curve -- out of the zone more and has generated more misses.
Lannan is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in five starts this month. (He was 2-5 with a 4.40 ERA in the first two months of the season.) Lannan is throwing his changeup more in June and locating it better.
In April and May, 36.5 percent of Lannan’s changeups were thrown over the middle of the plate. In June, only 17.6 percent have been over the middle. Opponents are batting just .190 against the change in June, compared to .333 in April and May.
Offensively, the Nationals have hit 20 home runs in June, tied for fourth-most in the National League. Leading the way has been Michael Morse, who has hit six homers and 19 RBIs and has a 1.002 OPS.
His tear started in May and has carried over to June. Morse’s struggles early on were against fastballs, hitting .211 with one HR in 38 at-bats ending on fastballs in April. Since May 1, Morse is hitting .356 with a home run once every nine at-bats.
Defensively, Washington has committed 13 errors in the past 30 days with a .988 fielding percentage, both the fourth-best rates in the league.
Behind the plate, Wilson Ramos quietly has become one of the most dangerous catchers to run against. Excluding pitcher pickoffs, Ramos has thrown out 40.0 percent of runners in June and has the second-highest rate this season.
Cliff Lee gets a unique double-double
June, 17, 2011
6/17/11
11:27
AM ET
By Steven Glasser | ESPN.com
We take a look at Thursday's action across Major League Baseball by the numbers -- we've got nine of them, one for every inning:
Notes 1, 3, 4, 7 and 8 are courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau.
Werth1st: The first time in Washington Nationals/Expos franchise history they hit a leadoff HR (Jayson Werth) and a walk-off HR (Danny Espinosa) in the same game.
2nd: The second time in New York Mets franchise history they lost on a game-ending balk (the other was in 1989 against the Los Angeles Dodgers).
3rd: The third time since 1993, when the Pittsburgh Pirates' streak of consecutive losing seasons began, they find themselves two games over .500 this late into the season (the others were in 1997 and 1999).
4th: Werth and Roger Bernadina hit back-to-back home runs to lead off the game, the fourth time teammates have done so this season.
5th: The Arizona Diamondbacks' fifth walk-off win this season after having five all of last season. Justin Upton, who hit the walk-off home run, has accounted for four of Arizona’s five walk-off hits this season.
Lee6th: Cliff Lee threw a two-hit shutout, while notching two hits of his own at the plate, the sixth pitcher to throw a shutout in the past three days.
7th: The New York Yankees won for the seventh time in nine games this season agains the Texas Rangers. The Yankees finished their season series with the Rangers with a 7-2 record, their second-best record against the defending American League champion all-time (they went 10-2 in 1981 against the Kansas City Royals, who beat them in the 1980 ALCS).
8th: The Boston Red Sox won for the eighth time in nine games to finish their road trip. The 8-1 road trip matched the second-best mark in franchise history on a road trip of nine or more games.
9th: Brooks Conrad's pinch-hit home run in the ninth inning tied the game for the Atlanta Braves who eventually won in extra innings. It was Conrad's sixth career pinch-hit homer (all six are since 2009, the second-most in baseball over that span behind Matt Stairs, who has nine).
Notes 1, 3, 4, 7 and 8 are courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau.
2nd: The second time in New York Mets franchise history they lost on a game-ending balk (the other was in 1989 against the Los Angeles Dodgers).
3rd: The third time since 1993, when the Pittsburgh Pirates' streak of consecutive losing seasons began, they find themselves two games over .500 this late into the season (the others were in 1997 and 1999).
4th: Werth and Roger Bernadina hit back-to-back home runs to lead off the game, the fourth time teammates have done so this season.
5th: The Arizona Diamondbacks' fifth walk-off win this season after having five all of last season. Justin Upton, who hit the walk-off home run, has accounted for four of Arizona’s five walk-off hits this season.
7th: The New York Yankees won for the seventh time in nine games this season agains the Texas Rangers. The Yankees finished their season series with the Rangers with a 7-2 record, their second-best record against the defending American League champion all-time (they went 10-2 in 1981 against the Kansas City Royals, who beat them in the 1980 ALCS).
8th: The Boston Red Sox won for the eighth time in nine games to finish their road trip. The 8-1 road trip matched the second-best mark in franchise history on a road trip of nine or more games.
9th: Brooks Conrad's pinch-hit home run in the ninth inning tied the game for the Atlanta Braves who eventually won in extra innings. It was Conrad's sixth career pinch-hit homer (all six are since 2009, the second-most in baseball over that span behind Matt Stairs, who has nine).
Jay Bruce dialed long-distance like no one else in the big leagues in May, according to ESPN's Home Run Tracker, and Mark Trumbo had the kind of mammoth blast that hadn't been seen in Kansas City in four years. What were some of the other home run oddities from the month of May?
Player Power Surge: HRs Totaling Most Distance (Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds)
Mike Stanton averaged more than 425 feet per home run in May, but no one totaled more total distance than Bruce. His 12 home runs tallied 4,776 feet, besting last month's winner, Ryan Braun, by nearly 700 feet. Jose Bautista, who leads the majors in home runs, has yet to win this award.
No Doubter: Longest True Distance (Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels)
Trumbo's Memorial Day blast off of Royals pitcher Louis Coleman at Kauffman Stadium traveled a true distance of 472 feet. It was the longest home run hit by an Angels player since Vladimir Guerrero's 473-foot shot off Zack Greinke at Kauffman on May 1, 2007.
Wall-Scraper: Shortest True Distance (Danny Valencia, Brennan Boesch)
On May 8, Valencia hit a 329-foot HR off Daisuke Matsuzaka. Eleven days later, Boesch hit a 329-foot shot off of Daniel Bard. Both home runs were hit at Fenway Park, which is not surprising. Of the 10 shortest home runs hit in 2011, six have been at Fenway Park.
Moonshot: Highest Apex* (Shelley Duncan, Cleveland Indians)
Duncan's 431-foot shot on Memorial Day off of Blue Jays pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes landed in the fifth deck at Rogers Centre, with an apex of 152 feet. Duncan became just the 15th player to reach the fifth deck at Rogers Centre, and the first since Jayson Werth on June 27, 2009 off of Brad Mills.
Line Drive: Lowest Apex (Carlos Peguero, Seattle Mariners)
Peguero’s May 16 shot came off Twins starter Scott Baker. With an apex of 39 feet, it was the lowest home run hit since Travis Snider’s 39-foot apex home run on May 3, 2010.
Fastball of the Month: Fastest Speed Off Bat (Juan Rivera, Toronto Blue Jays)
While his teammate Jose Bautista may steal all the attention, Rivera hit the fastest speed off bat in May. Rivera’s shot on May 22 off of Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez traveled 117.7 mph off the bat, and went 431 feet.
Server of the Month: Greatest Total Distance Allowed (Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds)
Arroyo allowed 10 home runs that traveled 3,981 feet. Last month's winner, Armando Galarraga, now finds himself in Triple-A Reno.
* Defined as the maximum vertical height a ball reaches during its flight
Player Power Surge: HRs Totaling Most Distance (Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds)
Mike Stanton averaged more than 425 feet per home run in May, but no one totaled more total distance than Bruce. His 12 home runs tallied 4,776 feet, besting last month's winner, Ryan Braun, by nearly 700 feet. Jose Bautista, who leads the majors in home runs, has yet to win this award.
No Doubter: Longest True Distance (Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels)
Trumbo's Memorial Day blast off of Royals pitcher Louis Coleman at Kauffman Stadium traveled a true distance of 472 feet. It was the longest home run hit by an Angels player since Vladimir Guerrero's 473-foot shot off Zack Greinke at Kauffman on May 1, 2007.
Wall-Scraper: Shortest True Distance (Danny Valencia, Brennan Boesch)
On May 8, Valencia hit a 329-foot HR off Daisuke Matsuzaka. Eleven days later, Boesch hit a 329-foot shot off of Daniel Bard. Both home runs were hit at Fenway Park, which is not surprising. Of the 10 shortest home runs hit in 2011, six have been at Fenway Park.
Moonshot: Highest Apex* (Shelley Duncan, Cleveland Indians)
Duncan's 431-foot shot on Memorial Day off of Blue Jays pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes landed in the fifth deck at Rogers Centre, with an apex of 152 feet. Duncan became just the 15th player to reach the fifth deck at Rogers Centre, and the first since Jayson Werth on June 27, 2009 off of Brad Mills.
Line Drive: Lowest Apex (Carlos Peguero, Seattle Mariners)
Peguero’s May 16 shot came off Twins starter Scott Baker. With an apex of 39 feet, it was the lowest home run hit since Travis Snider’s 39-foot apex home run on May 3, 2010.
Fastball of the Month: Fastest Speed Off Bat (Juan Rivera, Toronto Blue Jays)
While his teammate Jose Bautista may steal all the attention, Rivera hit the fastest speed off bat in May. Rivera’s shot on May 22 off of Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez traveled 117.7 mph off the bat, and went 431 feet.
Server of the Month: Greatest Total Distance Allowed (Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds)
Arroyo allowed 10 home runs that traveled 3,981 feet. Last month's winner, Armando Galarraga, now finds himself in Triple-A Reno.
* Defined as the maximum vertical height a ball reaches during its flight
April showers have brought May flowers for Jay Bruce.
BruceThe Cincinnati Reds slugger Sunday hit his National League-leading 15th home run of the season and his 11th homer in May, which ties Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays for the most during the month this season.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 11 home runs in May are the most by a Reds player in a single calendar month since Adam Dunn hit 12 in July 2008.
Bruce ended the month of April struggling with four home runs, 11 RBI and a .237 batting average, which ranked 135th in MLB among players with at least 75 plate appearances.
This month has seen a completely different story. He’s hitting .330 with 11 HR and 29 RBI. In his previous two years in May, Bruce had just a .239 batting average with 12 homers and 30 RBI over 57 games.
So what’s been the difference? According to Inside Edge, Bruce is getting aggressive and taking advantage of fastballs. In the month of April, Bruce had a slugging percentage of .364 on at-bats that ended on the first pitch. That is up to .778 this month.
On at-bats that ended on the fastball, Bruce hit .254 during the month of April. That was below the MLB average of .285 in the situation. This month, he’s increased that to .344 and his slugging percentage is at .889.
But Bruce wasn’t the only “Jay” that had a strong Sunday.
• The Toronto Blue Jays scored 13 runs, including a six-run first inning as they clubbed the White Sox 13-4.
• Ricky Romero got the win for the Blue Jays as he allowed two runs over seven innings. According to Baseball Reference, his nickname is “RR Cool Jay”, like the rapper and entertainer “LL Cool J.”
• J.A. Happ (pronounced “Jay") did not allow a hit until the fifth inning for the Houston Astros. He also hit his first career home run.
• Jayson Werth of the Washington Nationals had three hits, but he was left stranded in scoring position in the eighth inning as the potential go-ahead run.
• J.J. Hardy of the Baltimore Orioles had a pair of hits, including a double.
• Jay Gibbons of the Los Angeles Dodgers had three hits. He entered Sunday with a .190 batting average and eight total hits for the season.
• Jon Jay of the St. Louis Cardinals and John Jaso of the Tampa Bay Rays each hit their eighth career home run. Alphabetically, those two are next to each other on the active player list. It was the first time they've gone deep on the same day.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 11 home runs in May are the most by a Reds player in a single calendar month since Adam Dunn hit 12 in July 2008.
Bruce ended the month of April struggling with four home runs, 11 RBI and a .237 batting average, which ranked 135th in MLB among players with at least 75 plate appearances.
This month has seen a completely different story. He’s hitting .330 with 11 HR and 29 RBI. In his previous two years in May, Bruce had just a .239 batting average with 12 homers and 30 RBI over 57 games.
So what’s been the difference? According to Inside Edge, Bruce is getting aggressive and taking advantage of fastballs. In the month of April, Bruce had a slugging percentage of .364 on at-bats that ended on the first pitch. That is up to .778 this month.
On at-bats that ended on the fastball, Bruce hit .254 during the month of April. That was below the MLB average of .285 in the situation. This month, he’s increased that to .344 and his slugging percentage is at .889.
But Bruce wasn’t the only “Jay” that had a strong Sunday.
• The Toronto Blue Jays scored 13 runs, including a six-run first inning as they clubbed the White Sox 13-4.
• Ricky Romero got the win for the Blue Jays as he allowed two runs over seven innings. According to Baseball Reference, his nickname is “RR Cool Jay”, like the rapper and entertainer “LL Cool J.”
• J.A. Happ (pronounced “Jay") did not allow a hit until the fifth inning for the Houston Astros. He also hit his first career home run.
• Jayson Werth of the Washington Nationals had three hits, but he was left stranded in scoring position in the eighth inning as the potential go-ahead run.
• J.J. Hardy of the Baltimore Orioles had a pair of hits, including a double.
• Jay Gibbons of the Los Angeles Dodgers had three hits. He entered Sunday with a .190 batting average and eight total hits for the season.
• Jon Jay of the St. Louis Cardinals and John Jaso of the Tampa Bay Rays each hit their eighth career home run. Alphabetically, those two are next to each other on the active player list. It was the first time they've gone deep on the same day.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals are in the spotlight on Wednesday Night Baseball (ESPN2, 7 ET), with reigning Cy Young winner Roy Halladay on the bump for Philadelphia and John Lannan taking the ball for the Nats.
Last year, Halladay won all three of his starts against Washington in dominant fashion. Halladay allowed just one earned run in 23 innings, and had a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was in shutdown mode when the Nats threatened to score, allowing just one hit in 17 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Last year was not an aberration for Halladay against the Nationals. Since 2003, Halladay is 8-0 in nine starts with a 1.62 ERA against Washington.
Lannan, on the other hand, might be praying for rain in the D.C. area. He's 0-8 with a 6.09 ERA in 11 career starts against the Phillies. His 6.09 ERA is the third highest over the last 65 seasons among pitchers who have made at least 10 starts against the Phillies. His 0-8 record is the worst versus Philadelphia by any starting pitcher in the last 65 seasons.
Although Lannan has not had success against the Phillies, he has been able to shut down Ryan Howard. He's hitting a paltry .185 against the southpaw, with only five hits in 27 at-bats. Recent history doesn’t suggest a turnaround for Howard, either, with just one hit -- a home run last season -- in his last 17 at-bats against Lannan.
On Tuesday in his first game against his former team, Jayson Werth doubled and homered in Washington's 7-4 win. Since divisional play began in 1969, Werth is the fourth player coming off a 25 home-run season to switch from a first-place team to a last-place team within the same division during the offseason, this according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Werth joins Shawn Green (Dodgers to Diamondbacks in 2005), Gorman Thomas (Brewers to Indians in 1983) and Mike Epstein (A's to Rangers in 1973) as players to make this unusual move.
So far this season, Werth’s impact on the Nationals has been a mixed bag. Known for his patience at the plate and ability to work counts, Werth ranked first in the National League in pitches per plate appearance in each of the last three seasons. Last year, the Nationals ranked eighth in the league in pitches seen. With Werth in the lineup this season, they are averaging a National League-best 3.92 pitches per plate appearance.
WerthLast season, Werth hit a major-league worst .186 with runners in scoring position. The Nationals were hoping that he would rebound in 2011, looking to improve a Washington offense that last year ranked 13th in the league in batting average with RISP. However, through 10 games, Werth is still struggling to find his hitting stroke. He has just one hit in six at-bats with RISP, and so far is not helping a Nationals' team that's hitting .202 in such situations this season.
Last year, Halladay won all three of his starts against Washington in dominant fashion. Halladay allowed just one earned run in 23 innings, and had a 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was in shutdown mode when the Nats threatened to score, allowing just one hit in 17 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Last year was not an aberration for Halladay against the Nationals. Since 2003, Halladay is 8-0 in nine starts with a 1.62 ERA against Washington.
Lannan, on the other hand, might be praying for rain in the D.C. area. He's 0-8 with a 6.09 ERA in 11 career starts against the Phillies. His 6.09 ERA is the third highest over the last 65 seasons among pitchers who have made at least 10 starts against the Phillies. His 0-8 record is the worst versus Philadelphia by any starting pitcher in the last 65 seasons.
Although Lannan has not had success against the Phillies, he has been able to shut down Ryan Howard. He's hitting a paltry .185 against the southpaw, with only five hits in 27 at-bats. Recent history doesn’t suggest a turnaround for Howard, either, with just one hit -- a home run last season -- in his last 17 at-bats against Lannan.
On Tuesday in his first game against his former team, Jayson Werth doubled and homered in Washington's 7-4 win. Since divisional play began in 1969, Werth is the fourth player coming off a 25 home-run season to switch from a first-place team to a last-place team within the same division during the offseason, this according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Werth joins Shawn Green (Dodgers to Diamondbacks in 2005), Gorman Thomas (Brewers to Indians in 1983) and Mike Epstein (A's to Rangers in 1973) as players to make this unusual move.
So far this season, Werth’s impact on the Nationals has been a mixed bag. Known for his patience at the plate and ability to work counts, Werth ranked first in the National League in pitches per plate appearance in each of the last three seasons. Last year, the Nationals ranked eighth in the league in pitches seen. With Werth in the lineup this season, they are averaging a National League-best 3.92 pitches per plate appearance.
Atlanta Braves
Dan Uggla is a .354 career hitter at Turner Field. His batting average is the third-best at Turner Field since the ballpark opened in 1997. His .652 slugging percentage at Turner trails only a pair of baseball greats: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.
As a rookie last season, Jason Heyward's discipline was highlighted by his ability to not chase pitches in two-strike counts. In those situations, Heyward chased just 31 percent of pitches compared to the league average of 36 percent, according to Inside Edge.
Florida Marlins
The only pitcher with a better FIP over the last two seasons than Josh Johnson's 2.76 is Tim Lincecum, 2.73. (FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- is a measurement for everything a pitcher can control without the help of his defense: strikeouts, walks and home runs.)
Will Mike Stanton continue to struggle at home? Stanton hit .259 in his rookie season, but just .182 at home. He had only nine extra-base hits in 159 home at-bats compared to 35 extra-base hits in 200 road at-bats.
New York Mets
Last season they allowed 12 grand slams but didn't hit one. David Wright will likely become the franchise leader in both RBI and extra-base hits. He needs 70 RBI to pass Darryl Strawberry's team record of 773, and 27 extra-base hits to break Strawberry's record of 469.
Having cut Luis Castillo, the Mets appear to be leaning toward making Brad Emaus their second baseman. Last season, the Mets ranked 15th or 16th in the National League in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage by their second basemen.
Philadelphia Phillies
How much the Phillies will miss Jayson Werth remains to be seen. But, in 2010, the Phillies received more home runs and a higher slugging percentage out of right field than any other team in baseball.
With the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies have a starting rotation whose top four will rank among the best in baseball in almost every significant statistical category. Cole Hamels (T-4th), Roy Oswalt (6th), Roy Halladay (8th) and Cliff Lee (14th) all rank in the top 14 among active pitchers in career strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lee, the lowest of the four, led the major leagues last season.
Washington Nationals
While Jayson Werth should be an upgrade in right field, the Nats still have significant issues in center. They got a National League-worst two home runs from the position last season and their centerfielders' combined on-base percentage of .303 ranked 13th.
It appears Rick Ankiel will be the Nationals' starting centerfielder on Opening Day. After hitting 25 home runs in 120 games in 2008 with the Cardinals, Ankiel's hit just 17 in 196 games over the past two seasons.
-- Mark Simon contributed to this report
Dan Uggla is a .354 career hitter at Turner Field. His batting average is the third-best at Turner Field since the ballpark opened in 1997. His .652 slugging percentage at Turner trails only a pair of baseball greats: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.
As a rookie last season, Jason Heyward's discipline was highlighted by his ability to not chase pitches in two-strike counts. In those situations, Heyward chased just 31 percent of pitches compared to the league average of 36 percent, according to Inside Edge.
Florida Marlins
The only pitcher with a better FIP over the last two seasons than Josh Johnson's 2.76 is Tim Lincecum, 2.73. (FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- is a measurement for everything a pitcher can control without the help of his defense: strikeouts, walks and home runs.)
Will Mike Stanton continue to struggle at home? Stanton hit .259 in his rookie season, but just .182 at home. He had only nine extra-base hits in 159 home at-bats compared to 35 extra-base hits in 200 road at-bats.
New York Mets
Last season they allowed 12 grand slams but didn't hit one. David Wright will likely become the franchise leader in both RBI and extra-base hits. He needs 70 RBI to pass Darryl Strawberry's team record of 773, and 27 extra-base hits to break Strawberry's record of 469.
Having cut Luis Castillo, the Mets appear to be leaning toward making Brad Emaus their second baseman. Last season, the Mets ranked 15th or 16th in the National League in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage by their second basemen.
Philadelphia Phillies
How much the Phillies will miss Jayson Werth remains to be seen. But, in 2010, the Phillies received more home runs and a higher slugging percentage out of right field than any other team in baseball.
With the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies have a starting rotation whose top four will rank among the best in baseball in almost every significant statistical category. Cole Hamels (T-4th), Roy Oswalt (6th), Roy Halladay (8th) and Cliff Lee (14th) all rank in the top 14 among active pitchers in career strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lee, the lowest of the four, led the major leagues last season.
Washington Nationals
While Jayson Werth should be an upgrade in right field, the Nats still have significant issues in center. They got a National League-worst two home runs from the position last season and their centerfielders' combined on-base percentage of .303 ranked 13th.
It appears Rick Ankiel will be the Nationals' starting centerfielder on Opening Day. After hitting 25 home runs in 120 games in 2008 with the Cardinals, Ankiel's hit just 17 in 196 games over the past two seasons.
-- Mark Simon contributed to this report
It’s no exaggeration to call the Washington Nationals’ signing of Jayson Werth an unprecedented splash in the free agent market for that franchise. In the previous 20 offseasons, the combined contracts signed by free agents with the Nationals/Expos was $122.1 million. Werth received $126 million.
Few outfielders have rivaled Werth’s impact in recent years. Over the past three seasons combined, he’s offered a WAR (wins above replacement) of 15.0, according to FanGraphs.com. Among outfielders, that’s equal to Carl Crawford and topped only by Matt Holliday (18.2). Similarly, Werth’s 87 home runs in that span are third among outfielders. In both cases, he’s the top right fielder.
Of course, all of that was done in the heart of one of most potent offenses in the National League. How will he fare moving from the top of the division to the bottom?
The Elias Sports Bureau offers the limited precedent for such a transition. In the divisional era, Werth is the third player with at least 25 home runs to switch from a first-place team to a last-place team in the same division during the offseason. The most recent example was Shawn Green, who went from the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Arizona Diamondbacks following the 2004 season. Despite a rise in OPS, Green saw a decrease in RBIs. Before that, the Oakland A’s dealt Mike Epstein to the Texas Rangers following a 26-HR season in 1972. He lasted only 27 games in Texas before another trade.
Werth will certainly be counted on as a run producer in Washington, but he struggled in that role with the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2009, he became just the second player in franchise history with over 35 home runs but fewer than 100 RBI. Last season, he underperformed in RBI situations, hitting just .186 with runners in scoring position, fourth lowest in the majors.
All this came with lots of opportunities given his plum spot in the lineup. In fact, among those with 175 plate appearances with RISP, only three players posted a lower batting average in the past 35 seasons.
Along with his obvious power, Werth’s true offensive value is his ability to get on base. Despite that poor average, he had a .353 OBP with RISP. His 38 walks with RISP were fourth in the NL.
Though performance with runners on base has been shown to fluctuate from season to season, those numbers underscore a change in expectation. In a lineup filled with stars, Werth’s discerning eye had enormous value. The Nationals will be counting on him to take advantage of these situations and anchor an offense that scored the third-fewest runs in the NL last season.
-- Jeremy Lundblad and Mackenzie Kraemer contributed to this report
Few outfielders have rivaled Werth’s impact in recent years. Over the past three seasons combined, he’s offered a WAR (wins above replacement) of 15.0, according to FanGraphs.com. Among outfielders, that’s equal to Carl Crawford and topped only by Matt Holliday (18.2). Similarly, Werth’s 87 home runs in that span are third among outfielders. In both cases, he’s the top right fielder.
Of course, all of that was done in the heart of one of most potent offenses in the National League. How will he fare moving from the top of the division to the bottom?
The Elias Sports Bureau offers the limited precedent for such a transition. In the divisional era, Werth is the third player with at least 25 home runs to switch from a first-place team to a last-place team in the same division during the offseason. The most recent example was Shawn Green, who went from the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Arizona Diamondbacks following the 2004 season. Despite a rise in OPS, Green saw a decrease in RBIs. Before that, the Oakland A’s dealt Mike Epstein to the Texas Rangers following a 26-HR season in 1972. He lasted only 27 games in Texas before another trade.
Werth will certainly be counted on as a run producer in Washington, but he struggled in that role with the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2009, he became just the second player in franchise history with over 35 home runs but fewer than 100 RBI. Last season, he underperformed in RBI situations, hitting just .186 with runners in scoring position, fourth lowest in the majors.
All this came with lots of opportunities given his plum spot in the lineup. In fact, among those with 175 plate appearances with RISP, only three players posted a lower batting average in the past 35 seasons.
Along with his obvious power, Werth’s true offensive value is his ability to get on base. Despite that poor average, he had a .353 OBP with RISP. His 38 walks with RISP were fourth in the NL.
Though performance with runners on base has been shown to fluctuate from season to season, those numbers underscore a change in expectation. In a lineup filled with stars, Werth’s discerning eye had enormous value. The Nationals will be counting on him to take advantage of these situations and anchor an offense that scored the third-fewest runs in the NL last season.
-- Jeremy Lundblad and Mackenzie Kraemer contributed to this report
Stats & Information's weekly look at baseball moves wraps up this offseason's free-agent market.
Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, winners of the 2010-11 Hot Stove Free-Agent Spending title. The Red Sox put up just more than $162 million in potential payments (whether they're made by them or another team) to free agents, with most of that promised to Carl Crawford via a seven-year, $142 million deal.
It was the first time in the period for which we have free-agent spending data (starting with the 1990-91 offseason) that the Red Sox led the way in winter purchases.
Should Red Sox fans start planning for another parade of Duck Boats through the streets of Boston this fall? Not quite.
Since the 1990-91 offseason, just three teams that made the biggest potential commitments to free-agent signings during the winter went on to win the World Series in the following season: the 1996 Yankees, the 1997 Marlins and the 2009 Yankees.
Over the past 10 offseasons, four teams that have promised the most money to free agents went on to make the postseason the next season.
The St. Louis Cardinals, whose signing of Matt Holliday last offseason put them atop the free-agent race last offseason, were the latest to be unsuccessful in that regard.
Since the 1990-91 offseason, the lowest-ranked teams that went on to win the World Series the next season were the 1991 Minnesota Twins and the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, which both finished 17th in the free-agent spending race.
So two teams who figure to be in the postseason mix this year -- the Milwaukee Brewers (27th) and Atlanta Braves (29th) -- both would have pulled off an unlikely feat if they are hoisting a World Series trophy at the end of October, even though both improved themselves significantly via trades (and the Braves' subsequent contract extension for Dan Uggla).
-- Katie Sharp
Werth's worth all in the timing
The person whose timing was best this offseason: Washington Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth.
Werth took advantage of a market in which six teams committed more than $100 million in total to players (five did so in the previous three offseasons combined).
Put Werth's career numbers prior to his free agency next to those of the two big-ticket right-handed power-hitting outfielders last offseason (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday), as we did in the chart to your right, and you can see just how well Werth made out.
The Nationals paid Werth as if he were Holliday, but statistically speaking, he compares more strongly to Bay.
-- Derek Czenczelewski
The other end of the spending spectrum
• This is the least financially active (relative to others) that the Houston Astros have been in free agency in the 20 years for which we have data. They ranked 28th among teams in promised money to free agents this offseason, with Bill Hall (one year, $3 million) their biggest signing.
The Astros did ink pitcher Wandy Rodriguez to a three-year, $34 million deal, so they weren't completely inactive this winter.
• The New York Mets rated 24th in free-agent potential commitments in Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as general manager. They haven’t rated this low since ranking 26th in the 1996-97 offseason, and unlike the Astros, they didn't offer any long-term contract extensions beyond the two-year, $7.5 million deal given to R.A. Dickey.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates were the most active that they’ve been in quite some time., ranking 19th in potential free-agent spending, the highest they’ve ranked since the 2002-03 offseason, when they were 16th.
• The Cleveland Indians, whose lone major league free-agent addition was Austin Kearns (one year, $1.3 million), ranked last in money committed to free agents, after finishing 29th in potential spending last offseason (one spot ahead of the Marlins).
They are the third franchise in the past 10 offseasons to have back-to-back offseasons ranking that low, joining the 2004-05 Pirates and the 2006-07 Diamondbacks.
-- Mark Simon
Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, winners of the 2010-11 Hot Stove Free-Agent Spending title. The Red Sox put up just more than $162 million in potential payments (whether they're made by them or another team) to free agents, with most of that promised to Carl Crawford via a seven-year, $142 million deal.
It was the first time in the period for which we have free-agent spending data (starting with the 1990-91 offseason) that the Red Sox led the way in winter purchases.
Should Red Sox fans start planning for another parade of Duck Boats through the streets of Boston this fall? Not quite.
Since the 1990-91 offseason, just three teams that made the biggest potential commitments to free-agent signings during the winter went on to win the World Series in the following season: the 1996 Yankees, the 1997 Marlins and the 2009 Yankees.
Over the past 10 offseasons, four teams that have promised the most money to free agents went on to make the postseason the next season.
The St. Louis Cardinals, whose signing of Matt Holliday last offseason put them atop the free-agent race last offseason, were the latest to be unsuccessful in that regard.
Since the 1990-91 offseason, the lowest-ranked teams that went on to win the World Series the next season were the 1991 Minnesota Twins and the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, which both finished 17th in the free-agent spending race.
So two teams who figure to be in the postseason mix this year -- the Milwaukee Brewers (27th) and Atlanta Braves (29th) -- both would have pulled off an unlikely feat if they are hoisting a World Series trophy at the end of October, even though both improved themselves significantly via trades (and the Braves' subsequent contract extension for Dan Uggla).
-- Katie Sharp
Werth's worth all in the timing
The person whose timing was best this offseason: Washington Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth.
Werth took advantage of a market in which six teams committed more than $100 million in total to players (five did so in the previous three offseasons combined).
Put Werth's career numbers prior to his free agency next to those of the two big-ticket right-handed power-hitting outfielders last offseason (Jason Bay and Matt Holliday), as we did in the chart to your right, and you can see just how well Werth made out.
The Nationals paid Werth as if he were Holliday, but statistically speaking, he compares more strongly to Bay.
-- Derek Czenczelewski
The other end of the spending spectrum
• This is the least financially active (relative to others) that the Houston Astros have been in free agency in the 20 years for which we have data. They ranked 28th among teams in promised money to free agents this offseason, with Bill Hall (one year, $3 million) their biggest signing.
The Astros did ink pitcher Wandy Rodriguez to a three-year, $34 million deal, so they weren't completely inactive this winter.
• The New York Mets rated 24th in free-agent potential commitments in Sandy Alderson’s first offseason as general manager. They haven’t rated this low since ranking 26th in the 1996-97 offseason, and unlike the Astros, they didn't offer any long-term contract extensions beyond the two-year, $7.5 million deal given to R.A. Dickey.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates were the most active that they’ve been in quite some time., ranking 19th in potential free-agent spending, the highest they’ve ranked since the 2002-03 offseason, when they were 16th.
• The Cleveland Indians, whose lone major league free-agent addition was Austin Kearns (one year, $1.3 million), ranked last in money committed to free agents, after finishing 29th in potential spending last offseason (one spot ahead of the Marlins).
They are the third franchise in the past 10 offseasons to have back-to-back offseasons ranking that low, joining the 2004-05 Pirates and the 2006-07 Diamondbacks.
-- Mark Simon
Here’s one way to gauge whether you think Jayson Werth will be able to live up to his seven-year, $126 million contract.
WerthLet’s set an arbitrary criteria for an $18 million player using two simple metrics -- on-base percentage and home runs -- with the standard of excellence being a .375 on-base percentage and 30 home runs in a season. That seems reasonable given that $18 million ranks among the elite contracts in today’s game.
Six players have managed a .375 on-base percentage and averaged 30 home runs a year over the last seven seasons. Those are: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz and Adam Dunn.
If you think that Werth can match or come reasonably close to how those players have performed from 2004 to 2010, then you can feel good about this contract. If not, you might be a little bit skittish right now.
-- Mark Simon
Another way is to see how valuable Werth has been lately to try and determine if he can continue, or improve on, that performance.
Werth has been one of the National League’s best players since joining the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008, which led to his huge deal with the Washington Nationals this week. Werth’s average annual value of $18 million means that only 16 contracts in major-league history have offered a higher AAV.
And in terms of average annual value on contracts that include next season, he will have no worse than the sixth-biggest contract in baseball among hitters after Carl Crawford is signed. For that kind of dough, Werth is going to have to improve his play in a season when he’ll turn 32 years old.
Last season, according to FanGraphs, Werth’s value was determined to be $20 million. While it might seem like the Nats got a discount, Werth rated as the 28th most valuable hitter in the majors in 2010. He was valued at $22 million the year before that -- good for 28th in the league -- after being valued at $22.9 million in 2008. If he had just 20 more plate appearances that season, he would have been the 24th-most valuable player in baseball.
By this measure, Werth’s value has actually decreased over the last three years, when he played at ages 29, 30 and 31. He needs to increase his production and become more valuable than 22 players in order to justify this contract -- just next season, when he’ll be 32 before June.
-- John Fisher
Six players have managed a .375 on-base percentage and averaged 30 home runs a year over the last seven seasons. Those are: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz and Adam Dunn.
If you think that Werth can match or come reasonably close to how those players have performed from 2004 to 2010, then you can feel good about this contract. If not, you might be a little bit skittish right now.
-- Mark Simon
Another way is to see how valuable Werth has been lately to try and determine if he can continue, or improve on, that performance.
Werth has been one of the National League’s best players since joining the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008, which led to his huge deal with the Washington Nationals this week. Werth’s average annual value of $18 million means that only 16 contracts in major-league history have offered a higher AAV.
And in terms of average annual value on contracts that include next season, he will have no worse than the sixth-biggest contract in baseball among hitters after Carl Crawford is signed. For that kind of dough, Werth is going to have to improve his play in a season when he’ll turn 32 years old.
Last season, according to FanGraphs, Werth’s value was determined to be $20 million. While it might seem like the Nats got a discount, Werth rated as the 28th most valuable hitter in the majors in 2010. He was valued at $22 million the year before that -- good for 28th in the league -- after being valued at $22.9 million in 2008. If he had just 20 more plate appearances that season, he would have been the 24th-most valuable player in baseball.
By this measure, Werth’s value has actually decreased over the last three years, when he played at ages 29, 30 and 31. He needs to increase his production and become more valuable than 22 players in order to justify this contract -- just next season, when he’ll be 32 before June.
-- John Fisher
What is Jayson Werth worth?
WerthWith Werth signing with the Washington Nationals, let's run through a closer look at his value, with the help of our resources from the Elias Sports Bureau, Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference.com and Baseball Info Solutions.
Among this year's free agent outfielders, Werth's skills rate among the best in a number of areas. He's hit 87 home runs and stolen 53 bases over the last three seasons. The only other player to go 80 and 50 since 2008 -- Werth's soon-to-be former teammate, second baseman Chase Utley.
Werth is one of 10 hitters to average at least 29 home runs and post an OPS+ of 130 or better since 2008. Werth's OPS, adjusted for playing much of the time in Citizen's Bank Park, is 132 in that span, meaning he was 32 percent better than a league average player.
Defensively, Werth plays a very valuable role, not quite to Crawford's level, but it's impressive nonetheless. Over the last three seasons, he rates fifth-best among right fielders in the metric Defensive Runs Saved, which charts the ability to turn batted balls into outs and the ability to deter baserunners from taking an extra base.
The strength comes from Werth's throwing arm. When a single was hit Werth's way, only 42 percent of runners who were on second base scored. That's considerably below the major league average of 58 percent. In terms of deterrent value (measured by the defensive metric, Runs Saved), Werth's arm ranked third-best in the majors among rightfielders last season.
The one stat which might scare a team is that Werth rated among the worst in baseball with runners in scoring position, hitting just .186 last season. However, statistical studies have shown that those numbers fluctuate greatly from year-to-year. In fact, in each of the previous four seasons, Werth hit over .260 in those situations.
Werth still finished among the major league leaders in Win Probability Added last season (which measures the contributions of each plate appearance to a teams chance to win). So his positive performance in other situations helped counterbalance the issues he had in the highest-leverage situations and kept Werth's value very high.
The Nationals could use the help. Their outfielders ranked second-worst in the majors in batting average (.244), and fifth-worst in slugging percentage (.390). They also fared 10th in the NL in on-base percentage (.329), and home runs (52) last season, and their rightfielders ranked 10th in the league in Defensive Runs Saved.
Against Nationals pitchers, he hit .500 with five home runs and a 1.227 slugging percentage. He won't have the benefit of facing them any more, but Washington will hope his contributions will be equally, or close to equally worthwhile.
It's a stunning move for the Nationals from a contractual perspective. ESPN Stats and Information maintains a database of free agent contract signings dating back to the 1990-91 offseason. From that, we learned:
Jayson Werth is the fifth player aged 31 or older (as of opening day) to sign a free agent contract of at least seven years since the 1990-91 offseason.
Prior to this, the largest free agent contract given by the Nationals/Expos since 1990-91 was $20 million over two years to Adam Dunn in the 2008-09 offseason.
They had signed only one player to a free agent contract of more than three years -- Cristian Guzman got a 4-year deal in 2004-05
Entering today, the estimated total value of free agent contracts signed by players with the Nationals and Expos since 1990-91 was $122.1 million (less than what Werth got).
Follow Baseball Tonight's Winter Meetings coverage all week on SportsCenter and Monday with a special show live from Lake Buena Vista, Florida at 6 ET on ESPN2.
Among this year's free agent outfielders, Werth's skills rate among the best in a number of areas. He's hit 87 home runs and stolen 53 bases over the last three seasons. The only other player to go 80 and 50 since 2008 -- Werth's soon-to-be former teammate, second baseman Chase Utley.
Werth is one of 10 hitters to average at least 29 home runs and post an OPS+ of 130 or better since 2008. Werth's OPS, adjusted for playing much of the time in Citizen's Bank Park, is 132 in that span, meaning he was 32 percent better than a league average player.
Defensively, Werth plays a very valuable role, not quite to Crawford's level, but it's impressive nonetheless. Over the last three seasons, he rates fifth-best among right fielders in the metric Defensive Runs Saved, which charts the ability to turn batted balls into outs and the ability to deter baserunners from taking an extra base.
The strength comes from Werth's throwing arm. When a single was hit Werth's way, only 42 percent of runners who were on second base scored. That's considerably below the major league average of 58 percent. In terms of deterrent value (measured by the defensive metric, Runs Saved), Werth's arm ranked third-best in the majors among rightfielders last season.
The one stat which might scare a team is that Werth rated among the worst in baseball with runners in scoring position, hitting just .186 last season. However, statistical studies have shown that those numbers fluctuate greatly from year-to-year. In fact, in each of the previous four seasons, Werth hit over .260 in those situations.
Werth still finished among the major league leaders in Win Probability Added last season (which measures the contributions of each plate appearance to a teams chance to win). So his positive performance in other situations helped counterbalance the issues he had in the highest-leverage situations and kept Werth's value very high.
The Nationals could use the help. Their outfielders ranked second-worst in the majors in batting average (.244), and fifth-worst in slugging percentage (.390). They also fared 10th in the NL in on-base percentage (.329), and home runs (52) last season, and their rightfielders ranked 10th in the league in Defensive Runs Saved.
Against Nationals pitchers, he hit .500 with five home runs and a 1.227 slugging percentage. He won't have the benefit of facing them any more, but Washington will hope his contributions will be equally, or close to equally worthwhile.
It's a stunning move for the Nationals from a contractual perspective. ESPN Stats and Information maintains a database of free agent contract signings dating back to the 1990-91 offseason. From that, we learned:
Jayson Werth is the fifth player aged 31 or older (as of opening day) to sign a free agent contract of at least seven years since the 1990-91 offseason.
Prior to this, the largest free agent contract given by the Nationals/Expos since 1990-91 was $20 million over two years to Adam Dunn in the 2008-09 offseason.
They had signed only one player to a free agent contract of more than three years -- Cristian Guzman got a 4-year deal in 2004-05
Entering today, the estimated total value of free agent contracts signed by players with the Nationals and Expos since 1990-91 was $122.1 million (less than what Werth got).
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Mitch Moreland's three-run home run was the fourth three-run HR by the Texas Rangers this postseason. All other teams have combined for two. Moreland is now 7-for-17 at home this postseason with two walks. (During the regular season, he had a .411 OBP at home.)
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Mitch Moreland is the first rookie first baseman to start the first three games of a World Series since Jackie Robinson in 1947.
Hamilton
• Josh Hamilton's fifth HR of the postseason made him the first American League batting champion to hit a home run in the World Series since Bernie Williams in 1998. He also has four home runs off left-handed pitchers. That ties the record for most HR by a left-handed hitter against left-handed pitchers in a single postseason. Hamilton shares the mark with Rusty Staub (1973 Mets) and Chase Utley (2009 Phillies).
• Jonathan Sanchez allowed just five home runs in 138 at-bats during the regular season to left-handed batters. However, the last four home runs he's allowed have all been hit by left-handed hitters: Kosuke Fukudome, Kelly Johnson, Moreland and Hamilton).
• Nelson Cruz's second-inning double gives him seven this postseason. That ties the MLB postseason record previously set by Hideki Matsui (2004), Mike Lowell (2007) and Jayson Werth (2008).
• Neftali Feliz (22 years, 182 days) is the second-youngest pitcher to save a World Series game. Bob Welch was 21 years, 342 days when he recorded a save against the New York Yankees in the 1978 World Series.
• Cody Ross's fifth HR extended his postseason hitting streak to 10 games, tied for the second-longest in Giants history (Irish Meusel 11, Alvin Dark 10).
• Pat Burrell struck out in all four at-bats in Game 3, and is now 0-for-9 with eight strikeouts in the World Series. With the series guaranteed to go at least two more games, Burrell could set the record for most strikeouts in one World Series. That record currently is held by Ryan Howard, who struck out nine times in last year's World Series.
From the Elias Sports Bureau: Mitch Moreland is the first rookie first baseman to start the first three games of a World Series since Jackie Robinson in 1947.
• Josh Hamilton's fifth HR of the postseason made him the first American League batting champion to hit a home run in the World Series since Bernie Williams in 1998. He also has four home runs off left-handed pitchers. That ties the record for most HR by a left-handed hitter against left-handed pitchers in a single postseason. Hamilton shares the mark with Rusty Staub (1973 Mets) and Chase Utley (2009 Phillies).
• Jonathan Sanchez allowed just five home runs in 138 at-bats during the regular season to left-handed batters. However, the last four home runs he's allowed have all been hit by left-handed hitters: Kosuke Fukudome, Kelly Johnson, Moreland and Hamilton).
• Nelson Cruz's second-inning double gives him seven this postseason. That ties the MLB postseason record previously set by Hideki Matsui (2004), Mike Lowell (2007) and Jayson Werth (2008).
• Neftali Feliz (22 years, 182 days) is the second-youngest pitcher to save a World Series game. Bob Welch was 21 years, 342 days when he recorded a save against the New York Yankees in the 1978 World Series.
• Cody Ross's fifth HR extended his postseason hitting streak to 10 games, tied for the second-longest in Giants history (Irish Meusel 11, Alvin Dark 10).
• Pat Burrell struck out in all four at-bats in Game 3, and is now 0-for-9 with eight strikeouts in the World Series. With the series guaranteed to go at least two more games, Burrell could set the record for most strikeouts in one World Series. That record currently is held by Ryan Howard, who struck out nine times in last year's World Series.
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