Stats & Info: Josh Johnson
Hudson gives Braves home-field advantage
May, 25, 2012
May 25
12:48
PM ET
By Katie Sharp and Jeremy Lundblad, ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Daniel Shirey/US PresswireTim Hudson looks to continue his recent success at Turner Field tonight against the Nationals.
The Braves look to reverse their recent slump and avoid a season-high fifth straight loss. The league’s second-best offense averaged just two runs per game and was hitless in 12 at-bats with runners in scoring position as they were swept by the Cincinnati Reds earlier this week.
Atlanta sends veteran Tim Hudson to the mound in the opening game tonight. Hudson is 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA in his career versus the Nationals/Expos franchise, the second-most wins and best ERA among active pitchers against the team.
Hudson has also not allowed more than three earned runs at home in his last 19 starts. That’s the longest current streak of consecutive home starts allowing three or fewer earned runs, and the longest by a Braves pitcher since Greg Maddux reeled off 23 such starts from 1993-95.
The Nationals enter the series having won three of their last four games, getting strong performances from their top three studs in the rotation – Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez – before losing to Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday.
Tonight Ross Detwiler takes the ball for the Nationals. Detwiler had the last non-quality start by a Washington pitcher when he allowed a season-high six runs in Saturday's 6-5 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.
Detwiler allowed a total of eight earned runs in his first six starts combined (2.10 ERA), but has given up 10 earned runs in 10 innings (9.00 ERA) over his last two outings. Lefties are 3-for-7 with two extra-base hits against him during that span, after he held them to just two hits in 29 at-bats (.069 BA) in his first six starts this season.
Splitting Aces
Two aces who have had uncharacteristic struggles this season face off in south Florida tonight when Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants visit Josh Johnson and the Miami Marlins.
A two-time Cy Young winner, Lincecum has a career-worst 6.04 ERA and just one quality start this season. He has allowed at least four earned runs in six of nine starts, after doing so just seven times in 33 starts last year.
One major issue appears to be a significant drop in fastball velocity, along with a shrinking difference between the speeds of his heater and changeup. His fastball is averaging just 89.9 mph this season, after averaging 92.2 mph last year, while his changeup velocity has barely moved (83.7 mph in 2011, 83.1 mph in 2012).
Johnson struggled early on, going winless with a 6.69 ERA in his first six starts, but is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA over his last three outings. His fastball has become much more effective, as opponents are hitting .125 against the pitch in his past three games, compared to .391 in his first six starts.
For Verlander, some fastballs were too fast
April, 11, 2012
Apr 11
11:52
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Leon Halip/Getty ImagesAfter pitching 16 scoreless innings to start the season, Justin Verlander picked up the Tigers' first loss by allowing four runs in the ninth inning against the Rays.Verlander needed just 81 pitches to get through the first eight innings against the Tampa Bay Rays with the Tigers leading 2-0. That brought him to 16 scoreless innings with just three hits allowed on the season. In the ninth, he allowed four runs after surrendering three hits and a walk.
Verlander was the first pitcher to throw eight scoreless innings before allowing four or more runs in the ninth inning to take a loss since Tim Hudson for the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 22, 2005, against the Philadelphia Phillies.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, he’s the first starting pitcher to pick up a loss after allowing no runs on one hit or fewer in the first eight innings of a game his team led entering the ninth since Mark Langston of the Seattle Mariners in 1989. Langston took a no-hitter into the ninth inning before losing to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Verlander struggled with his fastball in the ninth inning, seemingly from over-throwing the pitch. In his first 16 innings this season, Verlander averaged 93.1 mph on his fastball, reaching a maximum velocity of 97.9. On 13 fastballs in the ninth inning against the Rays, every pitch came in above that average. He measured as high as 99.5 mph and averaged 97.2 during the frame.
Even with the extra oomph, the Rays were able to get to Verlander because he was leaving the ball over the plate. Entering the ninth, opposing hitters were 2-for-25 against Verlander’s fastball as he threw only eight percent down the heart of the plate. In the ninth inning, he threw 31 percent of his fastballs straight down the middle, including two hits by the Rays.
Quick Hits
• With the Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks losing and the Minnesota Twins winning, every major-league team has at least one win and one loss.
• Six days after tying a career-high by allowing 10 hits against the St. Louis Cardinals, Josh Johnson didn’t make it out of the fourth inning against the Phillies after allowing a career-high 11 hits.
• Peter Bourjos hit the second inside-the-park home run in Target Field history. The ball traveled 372 feet and would have been out of 10 ballparks.
• Tim Lincecum lasted just 2⅓ innings against the Colorado Rockies, his shortest outing in 157 career starts.
• The Oakland Athletics won in the bottom of the 12th inning when Jonny Gomes was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded. It was the first time game-ending hit by pitch since Brad Lidge hit Gomes as the Washington Nationals beat the Philadelphia Phillies on August 21, 2011. From Elias, it was the first game to end with back-to-back hit batters since 1966.
• Stephen Strasburg tossed six scoreless innings, topping 100 pitches for the first time in 19 career starts with the Nationals.
Choice matchup: slider vs. cutter
April, 11, 2012
Apr 11
12:56
PM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
Roy Halladay celebrates after throwing a perfect game against the Marlins on May 29, 2010.
Starting Pitchers
Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay have started against each other four times, with Johnson’s teams winning three of the four games. Since Halladay joined the Phillies in 2010, they have faced off three times, with both pitchers going at least seven innings. In those games, a grand total of six runs were scored – and one perfect game was thrown (by Halladay).
The key for Johnson tonight will be how he commands his slider. Last season, opponents were 5-for-68 (.074) on at-bats ending in his slider. The league average was .217. Right-handed hitters were just 2-for-40 (.050) against the slider, with Albert Pujols and Justin Turner recording the only hits.
However, in his first outing this season, Johnson had trouble commanding the slider and allowed two hits off the pitch, both to David Frese.
In his first start this season, Halladay recorded the win over the Pittsburgh Pirates after throwing eight innings, allowing two hits, no earned runs and striking out five. The key to his success against the Pirates was his cutter, which has become his main weapon of choice. In that outing, Halladay threw only seven regular fastballs among the 92 pitches he threw.
Key Stat
The Phillies offense has been anemic to start the season. Their four extra-base hits are the fewest in the majors and no team but the Minnesota Twins have scored fewer than the Phillies’ 2.0 runs per game. Not since 1997 have the Phillies scored as few as eight runs in their first four games of the season. Philadelphia finished 68-94 that season and in last place in the NL East.
Player to Watch
Giancarlo Stanton has yet to hit a home run this season after hitting a career-high 34 last year. Overall, Stanton improved across the board in 2011, compared to his rookie year. He cut his strikeouts down, increased his walk rate from the league average to better than 83 percent of the league, all while increasing his power output. His 5.7 Wins Above Replacement, according the Baseball-Reference, ranked second among MLB rightfielders (Jose Bautista, 8.5).
Interesting Fact
Stanton’s full name is a sonorous mouthful: Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton. He is not Italian, and Giancarlo is not a family name – his parents just liked it. In school, Stanton, a California native, went by Giancarlo until the fifth grade.
Will Cohen contributed to this post
Stats & Info insights into this morning's top sports stories
Pierce
1. PIERCE AND KG LEAD THE WAY: Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett combined for 51 points as the Boston Celtics beat the Heat 115-107 in Miami. Boston shot 60.6 percent from the field, the highest allowed by the Heat in the “Big 3” era (last two seasons). The Celtics lead the league with 18 wins after the All-Star Break. They were just 15-17 before the break.
2. TWO UNDEFEATED TEAMS LEFT: After losses by the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets, the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks are the only undefeated teams remaining in MLB. The Tigers are 4-0 for the 1st time since 2006. That season, they made the World Series. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 for the 1st time in franchise history.
3. PETRINO OUT: Bobby Petrino is out as Arkansas head football coach. Petrino was 34-17 in 4 seasons at Arkansas. The 2011 Razorbacks finished with their highest AP Ranking since 1977 and tied a school-record with 11 wins. Their only losses were to the top-2 teams in the nation (Alabama and LSU).
4. PLAYOFF PUCK DROPS: The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin Wednesday with three games. The Vancouver Canucks won the President’s Trophy for the second straight season and they host the Los Angeles Kings in the quarterfinals. The Detroit Red Wings are in the playoffs for the 21st-straight season, the longest active streak in the four major pro sports. They open at Nashville. The Philadelphia Flyers-Pittsburgh Penguins series also begins Wednesday. Pittsburgh is the favorite to win the Stanley Cup according to MGM Resorts International with 7-2 odds.
Halladay
5. DUELING ACES: Dueling aces square off on Wednesday Night Baseball on ESPN2, 7 ET as Roy Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies host Josh Johnson and the Miami Marlins. Halladay and Johnson have faced each other three previous times since Halladay joined the Phillies. In those three games, a grand total of six runs were scored, including a perfect game from Halladay on May 29, 2010.

2. TWO UNDEFEATED TEAMS LEFT: After losses by the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets, the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks are the only undefeated teams remaining in MLB. The Tigers are 4-0 for the 1st time since 2006. That season, they made the World Series. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 for the 1st time in franchise history.
3. PETRINO OUT: Bobby Petrino is out as Arkansas head football coach. Petrino was 34-17 in 4 seasons at Arkansas. The 2011 Razorbacks finished with their highest AP Ranking since 1977 and tied a school-record with 11 wins. Their only losses were to the top-2 teams in the nation (Alabama and LSU).
4. PLAYOFF PUCK DROPS: The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin Wednesday with three games. The Vancouver Canucks won the President’s Trophy for the second straight season and they host the Los Angeles Kings in the quarterfinals. The Detroit Red Wings are in the playoffs for the 21st-straight season, the longest active streak in the four major pro sports. They open at Nashville. The Philadelphia Flyers-Pittsburgh Penguins series also begins Wednesday. Pittsburgh is the favorite to win the Stanley Cup according to MGM Resorts International with 7-2 odds.

Lohse stays low to reel in Marlins
April, 5, 2012
Apr 5
12:06
AM ET
By ESPN Stats & Information | ESPN.com
Doug Pensinger/Getty ImagesKyle Lohse carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning as the St. Louis Cardinals spoiled the opening of Marlins Park for the hosts.Lohse carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Jose Reyes led off the inning with a single. Lohse ended up tossing 7⅓ innings and allowing just two hits. He is the first Cardinals pitcher to throw that many innings and allow two or fewer hits on Opening Day since Ernie Broglio in 1963.
Before this game, Lohse’s longest no-hit bid was 5⅓ innings for the Minnesota Twins against the Detroit Tigers on April 3, 2003. This is the third straight season that a pitcher has thrown at least 6 innings before allowing a hit in his team’s opener. Josh Johnson went 6 innings before allowing a hit for the Marlins last year, and Shaun Marcum recorded one more out before surrendering a hit for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010.
Lohse’s success against the Marlins was a tribute to his command. Last season, he was second in the National League in called strike percentage, with 39.1 percent of his strikes being taken by the batter. He was nearly as sharp tonight, with 21 of his 56 strikes (37.5 percent) and two of his three strikeouts on called strikes.
He was also successful in keeping the ball down. Last season opponents hit .213 when Lohse kept the ball down and .295 when the ball was middle or up. Tonight, the Marlins were 0-for-8 with two strikeouts on pitches in the lower third or below the strike zone.
When Mike Matheny pulled Lohse from the game in the eighth inning, it was the first pitching change of his career as a manager. Former Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa holds the major-league record with 12,236 career pitching changes.
Marlins’ starter Josh Johnson allowed 10 hits in a game for just the second time in his career. After allowing only one first-inning run in nine starts last season, he allowed two runs in the first inning against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals were the first defending World Series champion to win their opener since the Boston Red Sox in 2008. The last three champions had lost on Opening Day.
MLB Daily: Jeter, Bucs and no-hit luck
May, 10, 2011
5/10/11
2:06
PM ET
By David Bearman & Kenton Wong | ESPN.com
Today’s trivia: Roy Halladay pitches against Josh Johnson and the Florida Marlins tonight. Halladay threw a perfect game against the Marlins last year with Johnson on the mound. Only one pitcher has thrown multiple no-hitters against the same losing pitcher. Can you name the matchup?
Jeter on the rise?
Following a 2010 season when Derek Jeter had slash lines of .270/.340/.370 -- the lowest in his career for a full season -- critics argued that he was declining rapidly, both in the field and at the plate.
Entering play on Saturday, Jeter had been even worse: .250/.312/.268.
Jeter
What was most alarming was the lack of power.
Among 239 players with at least 75 plate appearances entering the weekend, Jeter ranked 223rd in slugging percentage at .268. That gave him an Isolated Power (ISO) of .018. (ISO measures how good a player is at hitting for extra bases. Last season the league average was .145.) Jeter’s lowest ISO for a season is .100, which came last season.
Jeter also recently said that a couple of four-hit games would help get him back on track.
For the most part he was right.
Following a weekend during which Jeter went 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits (including his first two home runs of the season), his batting average jumped 26 points and his slugging percentage rose 82 points.
In terms of slugging percentage, Jeter had the second-best weekend among players with at least five at-bats, slugging 1.182. Only Carlos Gomez, who doubled twice and tripled in five at-bats for a 1.400 slugging percentage, topped Jeter.
The Yankees captain can build on his weekend by facing three Kansas City Royals pitchers that he's fared well against in his career. Jeter is a combined 21-for-55 (.382) with six extra-base hits against Kansas City's projected starters Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen and Sean O'Sullivan.
Bucs above .500
The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-17) have a winning record at the deepest point in a season since May 29, 2004, when they were 23-22. How do the Pirates -- who have finished with a losing record in each of the past 18 seasons -- have more wins than losses?
• 2.81 bullpen ERA -- 2004 was the last time the Pirates' bullpen finished with an ERA under four (3.59).
• 11 saves -- only the Rockies, Yankees and Giants have more. The last time the Pirates led the league in saves was 1991.
• 3.54 team ERA -- Pittsburgh has not had a team ERA under four since 1998. The Pirates' ERA has been above 4.50 each of the past five seasons.
• 11 road wins -- only the Angels have more (12). The last time the Pirates finished with a winning road record? 1992 (43-38), which was the last time they made the postseason.
Trivia answer: In 1973, Kansas City Royals pitcher Steve Busby no-hit the Detroit Tigers with Clyde Wright as the opposing pitcher. Busby’s second no-hitter came in 1974 against the Brewers, with Wright the opposing starting pitcher.
Jeter on the rise?
Following a 2010 season when Derek Jeter had slash lines of .270/.340/.370 -- the lowest in his career for a full season -- critics argued that he was declining rapidly, both in the field and at the plate.
Entering play on Saturday, Jeter had been even worse: .250/.312/.268.
What was most alarming was the lack of power.
Among 239 players with at least 75 plate appearances entering the weekend, Jeter ranked 223rd in slugging percentage at .268. That gave him an Isolated Power (ISO) of .018. (ISO measures how good a player is at hitting for extra bases. Last season the league average was .145.) Jeter’s lowest ISO for a season is .100, which came last season.
Jeter also recently said that a couple of four-hit games would help get him back on track.
For the most part he was right.
Following a weekend during which Jeter went 6-for-11 with three extra-base hits (including his first two home runs of the season), his batting average jumped 26 points and his slugging percentage rose 82 points.
In terms of slugging percentage, Jeter had the second-best weekend among players with at least five at-bats, slugging 1.182. Only Carlos Gomez, who doubled twice and tripled in five at-bats for a 1.400 slugging percentage, topped Jeter.
The Yankees captain can build on his weekend by facing three Kansas City Royals pitchers that he's fared well against in his career. Jeter is a combined 21-for-55 (.382) with six extra-base hits against Kansas City's projected starters Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen and Sean O'Sullivan.
Bucs above .500
The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-17) have a winning record at the deepest point in a season since May 29, 2004, when they were 23-22. How do the Pirates -- who have finished with a losing record in each of the past 18 seasons -- have more wins than losses?
• 2.81 bullpen ERA -- 2004 was the last time the Pirates' bullpen finished with an ERA under four (3.59).
• 11 saves -- only the Rockies, Yankees and Giants have more. The last time the Pirates led the league in saves was 1991.
• 3.54 team ERA -- Pittsburgh has not had a team ERA under four since 1998. The Pirates' ERA has been above 4.50 each of the past five seasons.
• 11 road wins -- only the Angels have more (12). The last time the Pirates finished with a winning road record? 1992 (43-38), which was the last time they made the postseason.
Trivia answer: In 1973, Kansas City Royals pitcher Steve Busby no-hit the Detroit Tigers with Clyde Wright as the opposing pitcher. Busby’s second no-hitter came in 1974 against the Brewers, with Wright the opposing starting pitcher.
US Presswire
Expect runs to be at a premium tonight in Florida with Halladay and Johnson on the mound.
Two of the game’s best pitchers face off Tuesday in Florida when Josh Johnson and the Florida Marlins host Roy Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Combined, Johnson and Halladay are allowing fewer than four earned runs per game (1.68 and 2.19, respectively).
This will be the fourth meeting between the two aces. They pitched against each other once when Halladay was with the Blue Jays and twice last season, including Halladay’s perfect game on May 29. The Phillies won that game 1-0, only the sixth 1-0 perfect game in major-league history.
Johnson was the losing pitcher in that game, but in his three starts against Halladay, he's allowed one earned run in 20⅔ innings.
Johnson and Halladay rank among the top pitchers in the National League in multiple statistical categories: Halladay has allowed the fewest HR per 9 innings pitched, and ranks second to teammate Cliff Lee in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Johnson has the lowest WHIP, and each ranks in the top 10 in ERA.
Each enters the game with a loss this season, so they are beatable. However, if you're going to get to either Halladay or Johnson, it's not going to be at the start of the game. The two right-handers are among the best when it comes to the first three innings, combining to allow just three earned runs and striking out 50. In the third inning, opponents are 0-for-20 against Johnson.
Johnson will be facing a Phillies lineup that could feature seven left-handed hitters (including switch-hitters). Lefties Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Brian Schneider have combined to hit 12 home runs. However, Johnson's been strong against lefties this season, allowing 14 hits -- none of which have left the ball park -- in 85 at-bats.
One key to Halladay's success this season has been his ability to keep the ball down. A potential reason: Halladay has increased the use of his changeup from 13.4 percent (about once every eight pitches) over the past two seasons to 27.6 percent (about once every four pitches) this season. This has resulted in his opponents’ batting average to drop from .221 to .153 in at-bats that end with the pitches down in the zone.
Halladay was 4-1 against the Marlins last season, striking out 41 and walking two in 38 innings. He’s 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA in his past three starts with 32 strikeouts and two walks.
In 19 starts at home since the start of last season, Johnson is 9-3 with a 1.52 ERA. He’s allowed just three home runs in 130 innings with 151 strikeouts and 27 walks. Hitters leading off an inning are 4-for-48 with two walks against Johnson this season.
With April in the books, let's take a look at the first month that was in the major leagues.
We called 2010 the Year of the Pitcher and 2011 is shaping up to be the same -- or better. Since the mound was lowered in 1969, no March/April has had a higher strikeout rate than in 2011. League-wide walk rate is also the second lowest it’s been during the last 43 years, and not surprisingly, strikeout-to-walk ratio is also the best it’s ever been.
And according to Inside Edge, only 20.2 percent of at-bats have ended with a “well hit” ball this season. That’s the lowest rate in March/April since 2007.
One thing to note, is that 29 pitchers (min 30 IP) last season had a fastball that averaged 95 MPH or higher, by far the most since velocity data is available going back to 2002. This season, only 16 pitchers are averaging 95 or higher.
PITCHERS OF THE MONTH
Jered Weaver, LAA
Opponents are missing on 26.3 percent of their swings against Weaver this season, (26.1 last season, 10th among qualified pitchers). From 2006 to 2009, Weaver’s miss percentage was just 21.4. Last season, Weaver took more hitters to two-strike counts than any pitcher in baseball and led baseball in strikeouts. This season he's first and second, respecitvely.
Josh Johnson, FLA
Before his start Saturday, Johnson had not allowed a hit in the first three innings in his previous five starts. In three of his six starts, he pitched at least 5 ⅔ innings of no-hit ball. Johnson alone has three of the eight total no-hit bids of at least 5 ⅔ innings this season. According to Elias, he was the first pitcher in the last 50 years with three starts of at least 5 ⅔ no-hit innings in April.
Weaver had the lowest opponents' batting average against his fastball and Johnson had the lowest against his slider.
HITTERS OF THE MONTH
Jose Bautista, TOR
Bautista has carried over his tremendous 2010 season. His nine homers lead the American League and are well ahead of his 2010 pace when he finished with an MLB-best 54 homers. He also leads the AL in OBP and slugging percentage.
Andre Ethier, LAD
Ethier’s 26-game hitting streak is the longest ever for a single season in April and the second-longest by a Dodgers player since the franchise moved to Los Angeles in 1958.
There's nothing good to throw these guys; Bautista leads the majors in batting average against sliders and Ethier is second in batting average against changeups.
STOLEN BASE NOTES
Successful stolen base attempts resulted in a run 36 percent of the time in March and April, but potential for runs has collateral damage: the batters. Hitters who were at bat during a steal attempt have hit just four home runs in 523 at-bats and are well below league averages in batting average and strikeout rate. Johnny Damon has been the poster child for poor hitting after a steal, going 0-for-7 with five strikeouts all on Sam Fuld attempts.
The Yankees have made the most of their 19 stolen base attempts, scoring eight runs, the highest percentage of runners to score following a steal attempt this season. The Braves have scored just once in 14 attempts, the worst percentage in the league.
We called 2010 the Year of the Pitcher and 2011 is shaping up to be the same -- or better. Since the mound was lowered in 1969, no March/April has had a higher strikeout rate than in 2011. League-wide walk rate is also the second lowest it’s been during the last 43 years, and not surprisingly, strikeout-to-walk ratio is also the best it’s ever been.
And according to Inside Edge, only 20.2 percent of at-bats have ended with a “well hit” ball this season. That’s the lowest rate in March/April since 2007.
One thing to note, is that 29 pitchers (min 30 IP) last season had a fastball that averaged 95 MPH or higher, by far the most since velocity data is available going back to 2002. This season, only 16 pitchers are averaging 95 or higher.
PITCHERS OF THE MONTH
Jered Weaver, LAA
Opponents are missing on 26.3 percent of their swings against Weaver this season, (26.1 last season, 10th among qualified pitchers). From 2006 to 2009, Weaver’s miss percentage was just 21.4. Last season, Weaver took more hitters to two-strike counts than any pitcher in baseball and led baseball in strikeouts. This season he's first and second, respecitvely.
Josh Johnson, FLA
Before his start Saturday, Johnson had not allowed a hit in the first three innings in his previous five starts. In three of his six starts, he pitched at least 5 ⅔ innings of no-hit ball. Johnson alone has three of the eight total no-hit bids of at least 5 ⅔ innings this season. According to Elias, he was the first pitcher in the last 50 years with three starts of at least 5 ⅔ no-hit innings in April.
Weaver had the lowest opponents' batting average against his fastball and Johnson had the lowest against his slider.
HITTERS OF THE MONTH
Jose Bautista, TOR
Bautista has carried over his tremendous 2010 season. His nine homers lead the American League and are well ahead of his 2010 pace when he finished with an MLB-best 54 homers. He also leads the AL in OBP and slugging percentage.
Andre Ethier, LAD
Ethier’s 26-game hitting streak is the longest ever for a single season in April and the second-longest by a Dodgers player since the franchise moved to Los Angeles in 1958.
There's nothing good to throw these guys; Bautista leads the majors in batting average against sliders and Ethier is second in batting average against changeups.
STOLEN BASE NOTES
Successful stolen base attempts resulted in a run 36 percent of the time in March and April, but potential for runs has collateral damage: the batters. Hitters who were at bat during a steal attempt have hit just four home runs in 523 at-bats and are well below league averages in batting average and strikeout rate. Johnny Damon has been the poster child for poor hitting after a steal, going 0-for-7 with five strikeouts all on Sam Fuld attempts.
The Yankees have made the most of their 19 stolen base attempts, scoring eight runs, the highest percentage of runners to score following a steal attempt this season. The Braves have scored just once in 14 attempts, the worst percentage in the league.
Josh Johnson has handled right handed hitters differently this season. Left picture shows 2009 and 2010 seasons. Right picture shows this season.
If it seems like Josh Johnson is flirting with a no-hitter every time out this season, it’s because he is. In each of his five starts this season, the Florida Marlins right-hander has not allowed a hit though three innings. In three of his five starts, including Sunday against the Rockies, he pitched at least 5⅔ innings of no-hit ball. Johnson has three of the six total no-hit bids of at least 5⅔ innings this season. According to Elias, he is the first pitcher in the last 50 years with three starts of at least 5⅔ no-hit innings in April.
So how has Johnson been able to dominate hitters each time out? It helps to have a mid-90s fastball and a devastating power slider. But it hasn’t been his stuff as much as the way he’s commanding those pitches, especially to right-handed hitters.
If we look at the heat maps above, we can see just how well Johnson is locating the ball to righties. The heat map on the left shows Johnson’s pitch frequency to righties in the previous two seasons and the one on the right shows it in 2011. Focusing on the red area, the spots Johnson hits most often, we can see that he’s keeping the ball down in the zone to righties much more frequently – with increased effectiveness.
As you can see in the chart, Johnson is hammering the ball down in the zone, throwing it 60-percent more frequently to righties than he did in the previous two seasons. His ground-ball rate against righties has jumped, moving into the elite 50-percent threshold, and his OPS is off-the-charts low.
The biggest improvement with Johnson’s command has been on his slider. He’s throwing it slightly more often to righties -- 36.6 percent of the time compared to 31.4 the previous two seasons -- but with improved location and results. After 58.5 percent of his sliders were down in the zone in 2009 and 2010 combined, a whopping 83.6 percent of his sliders are down in the strike zone or below this season.
The result is that the slider has become even more of a chase pitch for Johnson. Righties are swinging at 52.3 percent of his sliders out of the zone this season, compared to just 31.8 percent last season, helping make the pitch literally unhittable to this point. Right-handed batters are 0-for-20 in at-bats ending on Johnson’s sliders this season, including nine strikeouts. That’s the most outs recorded by a pitcher without giving up a hit on any pitch type this season against righties.
Obviously, it’s not even May yet, so the small sample rule still applies, but if Johnson can sustain this kind of command, we’ll be sure to hear the words Josh Johnson and no-hitter much more this season.
Not only was 2010 the Year of the No-Hitter (six including the postseason), but it also was the Year of the Near No-Hitter. Five other potential no-nos were broken up in the ninth inning, the highest number since 1990.
On Friday night, Florida Marlins pitcher Anibal Sanchez recorded the first near no-hitter of the 2011 campaign, losing his bid after Colorado Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler led off the ninth inning with a single.
How did Sanchez shut down the Rockies? He was dominant with several pitches.
Sanchez's fastball averaged 92.1 mph, only the eighth time since the 2009 season he averaged 92 or faster in a start. He recorded eight misses on 26 swings on his fastball (30.8 percent), the third-highest miss percentage on his fastball in the past three seasons.
While the heater was superb, Sanchez also used his off-speed pitches to get hitters out, especially with two strikes. Sanchez retired 13 Rockies hitters with off-speed pitches, despite throwing just 17 off-speed pitches with two strikes the entire game. He recorded 12 outs on his slider, including nine with two strikes -- the most in a start since September 2009.
The Marlins have three of the five longest no-hit bids so far this season. Sanchez’s is the longest of the season, and Josh Johnson has taken one into the eighth inning and another into the seventh.
The Marlins are tied with the Red Sox and Yankees for the most no-hitters since 1993 (Marlins’ inaugural season) with four. Al Leiter, Kevin Brown, A.J. Burnett and Sanchez have tossed the Florida no-hitters.
Had Sanchez finished off the no-hitter Friday, the 27-year-old would have become the sixth-youngest pitcher at the time of his second no-hitter (Johnny Vander Meer is the youngest at 23 years, 225 days).
On Friday night, Florida Marlins pitcher Anibal Sanchez recorded the first near no-hitter of the 2011 campaign, losing his bid after Colorado Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler led off the ninth inning with a single.
How did Sanchez shut down the Rockies? He was dominant with several pitches.
Sanchez's fastball averaged 92.1 mph, only the eighth time since the 2009 season he averaged 92 or faster in a start. He recorded eight misses on 26 swings on his fastball (30.8 percent), the third-highest miss percentage on his fastball in the past three seasons.
While the heater was superb, Sanchez also used his off-speed pitches to get hitters out, especially with two strikes. Sanchez retired 13 Rockies hitters with off-speed pitches, despite throwing just 17 off-speed pitches with two strikes the entire game. He recorded 12 outs on his slider, including nine with two strikes -- the most in a start since September 2009.
The Marlins have three of the five longest no-hit bids so far this season. Sanchez’s is the longest of the season, and Josh Johnson has taken one into the eighth inning and another into the seventh.
The Marlins are tied with the Red Sox and Yankees for the most no-hitters since 1993 (Marlins’ inaugural season) with four. Al Leiter, Kevin Brown, A.J. Burnett and Sanchez have tossed the Florida no-hitters.
Had Sanchez finished off the no-hitter Friday, the 27-year-old would have become the sixth-youngest pitcher at the time of his second no-hitter (Johnny Vander Meer is the youngest at 23 years, 225 days).
Atlanta Braves
Dan Uggla is a .354 career hitter at Turner Field. His batting average is the third-best at Turner Field since the ballpark opened in 1997. His .652 slugging percentage at Turner trails only a pair of baseball greats: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.
As a rookie last season, Jason Heyward's discipline was highlighted by his ability to not chase pitches in two-strike counts. In those situations, Heyward chased just 31 percent of pitches compared to the league average of 36 percent, according to Inside Edge.
Florida Marlins
The only pitcher with a better FIP over the last two seasons than Josh Johnson's 2.76 is Tim Lincecum, 2.73. (FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- is a measurement for everything a pitcher can control without the help of his defense: strikeouts, walks and home runs.)
Will Mike Stanton continue to struggle at home? Stanton hit .259 in his rookie season, but just .182 at home. He had only nine extra-base hits in 159 home at-bats compared to 35 extra-base hits in 200 road at-bats.
New York Mets
Last season they allowed 12 grand slams but didn't hit one. David Wright will likely become the franchise leader in both RBI and extra-base hits. He needs 70 RBI to pass Darryl Strawberry's team record of 773, and 27 extra-base hits to break Strawberry's record of 469.
Having cut Luis Castillo, the Mets appear to be leaning toward making Brad Emaus their second baseman. Last season, the Mets ranked 15th or 16th in the National League in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage by their second basemen.
Philadelphia Phillies
How much the Phillies will miss Jayson Werth remains to be seen. But, in 2010, the Phillies received more home runs and a higher slugging percentage out of right field than any other team in baseball.
With the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies have a starting rotation whose top four will rank among the best in baseball in almost every significant statistical category. Cole Hamels (T-4th), Roy Oswalt (6th), Roy Halladay (8th) and Cliff Lee (14th) all rank in the top 14 among active pitchers in career strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lee, the lowest of the four, led the major leagues last season.
Washington Nationals
While Jayson Werth should be an upgrade in right field, the Nats still have significant issues in center. They got a National League-worst two home runs from the position last season and their centerfielders' combined on-base percentage of .303 ranked 13th.
It appears Rick Ankiel will be the Nationals' starting centerfielder on Opening Day. After hitting 25 home runs in 120 games in 2008 with the Cardinals, Ankiel's hit just 17 in 196 games over the past two seasons.
-- Mark Simon contributed to this report
Dan Uggla is a .354 career hitter at Turner Field. His batting average is the third-best at Turner Field since the ballpark opened in 1997. His .652 slugging percentage at Turner trails only a pair of baseball greats: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.
As a rookie last season, Jason Heyward's discipline was highlighted by his ability to not chase pitches in two-strike counts. In those situations, Heyward chased just 31 percent of pitches compared to the league average of 36 percent, according to Inside Edge.
Florida Marlins
The only pitcher with a better FIP over the last two seasons than Josh Johnson's 2.76 is Tim Lincecum, 2.73. (FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- is a measurement for everything a pitcher can control without the help of his defense: strikeouts, walks and home runs.)
Will Mike Stanton continue to struggle at home? Stanton hit .259 in his rookie season, but just .182 at home. He had only nine extra-base hits in 159 home at-bats compared to 35 extra-base hits in 200 road at-bats.
New York Mets
Last season they allowed 12 grand slams but didn't hit one. David Wright will likely become the franchise leader in both RBI and extra-base hits. He needs 70 RBI to pass Darryl Strawberry's team record of 773, and 27 extra-base hits to break Strawberry's record of 469.
Having cut Luis Castillo, the Mets appear to be leaning toward making Brad Emaus their second baseman. Last season, the Mets ranked 15th or 16th in the National League in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage by their second basemen.
Philadelphia Phillies
How much the Phillies will miss Jayson Werth remains to be seen. But, in 2010, the Phillies received more home runs and a higher slugging percentage out of right field than any other team in baseball.
With the acquisition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies have a starting rotation whose top four will rank among the best in baseball in almost every significant statistical category. Cole Hamels (T-4th), Roy Oswalt (6th), Roy Halladay (8th) and Cliff Lee (14th) all rank in the top 14 among active pitchers in career strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lee, the lowest of the four, led the major leagues last season.
Washington Nationals
While Jayson Werth should be an upgrade in right field, the Nats still have significant issues in center. They got a National League-worst two home runs from the position last season and their centerfielders' combined on-base percentage of .303 ranked 13th.
It appears Rick Ankiel will be the Nationals' starting centerfielder on Opening Day. After hitting 25 home runs in 120 games in 2008 with the Cardinals, Ankiel's hit just 17 in 196 games over the past two seasons.
-- Mark Simon contributed to this report
Marlins bank on breakout, ink Nolasco
December, 20, 2010
12/20/10
8:01
PM ET
By Justin Havens | ESPN.com
The Florida Marlins, widely criticized for failing to spend money, have locked up their second rotation piece to a multi-year contract, agreeing with right-hander Ricky Nolasco on a 3-year/$26.5 million deal. It was just under a year ago that the Marlins committed to Josh Johnson for four years, and now they will have both starters through at least 2013.
NolascoThe Marlins commitment to Nolasco could signify that the team is expecting the sort of breakout that Nolasco’s peripherals have indicated is coming for years. Few pitchers have been as perplexing as Nolasco; over the last two seasons, Nolasco’s ERA has lagged well behind his supporting statistics. In other words, he has the ERA of a No. 4 starter and the peripherals of a No. 1.
In fact, Nolasco was the only starting pitcher between 2009 and 2010 (combined) to post a strikeout rate per nine innings of 8.5 or greater and an ERA of 4.75 or greater (min. 300 IP).
If Nolasco is wildly underperforming his peripherals, what could be the cause of it besides potential 'bad luck'? For starters, the Marlins defense has been one of the worst across-the-board over the last two seasons, ranking 15th in the National League in team-wide Defensive Runs Saved (-51) and 16th in Plus/minus (-79), both courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions. The Marlins received below-average defense, according to Defensive Runs Saved, at all four non-catcher infield positions, as well as in center field.
Though some of those fielders will be back in 2011 -- Dan Uggla is gone and the third base situation is up in the air -- Nolasco's combination of plentiful strikeouts and minimal walks seems destined to put him in line for a breakout season at some point in his career. Over the last two seasons, Nolasco ranks fourth among starting pitchers in baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and three of the other four in the top five have won a Cy Young award at some point in their careers.
Put it all together, and the Marlins have assembled a front three portion of their starting rotation -- Johnson, Nolasco and Javier Vazquez -- that is unmatched in its ability to register strikeouts. In fact, among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched over the past two seasons, the Marlins are the only team in baseball scheduled to go into 2011 with three starters who have averaged 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings or better over that span. Only two other teams even has two such starters -- the Detroit Tigers with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer and the San Francisco Giants with Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez.
So while the Marlins might be banking on a breakout from Nolasco to justify the contract, they are putting their money on a pitcher whose underlying statistics justify the faith.
In fact, Nolasco was the only starting pitcher between 2009 and 2010 (combined) to post a strikeout rate per nine innings of 8.5 or greater and an ERA of 4.75 or greater (min. 300 IP).
If Nolasco is wildly underperforming his peripherals, what could be the cause of it besides potential 'bad luck'? For starters, the Marlins defense has been one of the worst across-the-board over the last two seasons, ranking 15th in the National League in team-wide Defensive Runs Saved (-51) and 16th in Plus/minus (-79), both courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions. The Marlins received below-average defense, according to Defensive Runs Saved, at all four non-catcher infield positions, as well as in center field.
Though some of those fielders will be back in 2011 -- Dan Uggla is gone and the third base situation is up in the air -- Nolasco's combination of plentiful strikeouts and minimal walks seems destined to put him in line for a breakout season at some point in his career. Over the last two seasons, Nolasco ranks fourth among starting pitchers in baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and three of the other four in the top five have won a Cy Young award at some point in their careers.
Put it all together, and the Marlins have assembled a front three portion of their starting rotation -- Johnson, Nolasco and Javier Vazquez -- that is unmatched in its ability to register strikeouts. In fact, among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched over the past two seasons, the Marlins are the only team in baseball scheduled to go into 2011 with three starters who have averaged 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings or better over that span. Only two other teams even has two such starters -- the Detroit Tigers with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer and the San Francisco Giants with Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez.
So while the Marlins might be banking on a breakout from Nolasco to justify the contract, they are putting their money on a pitcher whose underlying statistics justify the faith.
He’s the fourth Philadelphia Phillies pitcher to win the award and the first since reliever Steve Bedrosian won it in 1987. After winning six times in the 16 seasons from 1972-1987, this is the first time in 23 years that a Phillies pitcher won the award.
Halladay went 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA, with 219 strikeouts and just 30 walks in 250 ⅔ innings. He’s just the fourth National League pitcher since 1994 to throw at least 250 innings with an ERA of 2.50 or below, joining Johnson, Greg Maddux and Kevin Brown. Halladay led the league in wins, complete games, shutouts, innings pitched and K/BB ratio. He was second in the league in strikeouts and WHIP (1.04), and third in ERA, and he threw the 20th perfect game in major league history when he beat the Florida Marlins on May 29.
The superior start is a statistic created by Stats & Information designed as an enhanced version of the quality start. For each start a pitcher is assigned a probability he gave his team of winning based on his innings pitched and earned runs -- the same statistics used to determine a quality start.
A superior start is deemed to be any start where the pitcher gave his team at least a 75 percent chance to win. The four pitchers who tied for the lead finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting.
Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals finished second, his second top-three finish in the last three seasons. Wainwright went 20-11 with a career-low 2.42 ERA and a career-high 213 strikeouts in 230 ⅓ innings pitched. He won 20 games for the first time in his career and had five complete games, after throwing three combined in his career entering this season.
xWIN is another statistic created by Stats & Information that measures how many wins a pitchers team should get based on his combination of innings pitched and earned runs allowed in each start. It eliminates the adverse effect of a having a bad offense on a pitcher's win total. Wainwright barely outpaced Halladay to lead the National League this season.
Ubaldo Jimenez finished third after having one of the best seasons in Colorado Rockies history. He went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 214 strikeouts in 221 ⅔ innings. That’s the second-best ERA by a starting pitcher in Rockies history and his 214 strikeouts set the all-time franchise mark.
Jimenez was counting on the fact that the NL Cy Young winner had fewer than 20 wins for four straight seasons before this one. With Halladay’s win, just twice in the last eight years has the winner registered 20 wins or more.
Cowboys 1-3 start not all Romo's fault
October, 12, 2010
10/12/10
10:56
AM ET
By Russell Baxter | ESPN.com
For all of the blame that will be leveled on QB Tony Romo after the team's loss to Tennessee on Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys defense has looked horrible in home losses to the Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans.
Wade Phillips' unit didn't get many takeaways last season, and this season they haven't stopped many clubs through the air. This season, Dallas is in the bottom half of the league in sacks after finishing in the top seven in each of the last three seasons. And only two teams have fewer interceptions than the Cowboys' two.
When a quarterback has a 400-yard passing game, it looks great on the resume and lousy on the ledger. There have been seven such performances this season and those quarterbacks are 1-6. The lone win came when Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans beat the Washington Redskins in OT, defeating 400-yard passer Donovan McNabb in the process.
The Buffalo Bills’ new-look defense continues to be a liability, giving up 200 yards or more on the ground for the third straight week, and at least 30 points for the fourth straight game. The Bills defense allowed each of those numbers just four times all of last season.
When it comes to the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, turnaround may be fair play for one of last season's most opportunistic teams. On Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals totaled three return touchdowns (offensive fumble recovery, defensive fumble recovery, interception) in their win over New Orleans. Last season, the Saints allowed three return touchdowns in 16 games.
By the way, the Cardinals have looked awful on the road and are down to an undrafted rookie free agent quarterback. But sometimes we forget the Cardinals have not had a losing season under head coach Ken Whisenhunt, dating to 2007.
Cleveland Browns' QB Jake Delhomme remains a turnover machine. Starting with his implosion for the Carolina Panthers in the 2008 NFC Divisional Playoffs, Delhomme has committed 31 turnovers (27 interceptions, four fumbles lost) in his last 14 games.
While the Kansas City Chiefs certainly have their offensive limitations, their defensive unit, under coordinator Romeo Crennel, has made major strides. Kansas City has yet to give up 20 points in four games so far this season. Last season its defense allowed at least 20 points in four of their first five games (all losses).
Denver Broncos' QB Kyle Orton continues to pile up the passing yards, but what does it really mean? Let’s not forget that the Saints QB Drew Brees threw for 5,069 yards in 2008, but finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. Denver is tied for last place, two games behind the AFC West leader.
Dating back to last season, QB Josh Freeman and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-2 in their last seven games. The Bucs opened the 2009 season 1-12 and used three different quarterbacks along the way (Byron Leftwich, Josh Johnson and Freeman) before the latter took over for good.
Lincecum
What else did he do?
•Became the second pitcher in MLB history to strike out at least 10 and allow two hits or fewer in a shutout in a postseason debut. The other was Ed Walsh of the 1906 White Sox.
•The 14 strikeouts are tied for third-most in a postseason shutout, trailing only Bob Gibson and Roger Clemens (17).
•Tied the record for strikeouts in a postseason debut, which was previously done three times (last by Mike Scott of the 1986 Astros).
•Became the third pitcher to throw a 1-0 shutout with 10 or more strikeouts, joining Mike Scott and Dave McNally (1969 Orioles).
•Became the first pitcher to throw a 1-0 shutout in his postseason debut since Mike Scott.
•Set the Giants single-game postseason record with 14 K, beating the previous mark of 10 (done four times).
How was he able to dominate?
Lincecum had good command of his fastball as the Braves were only one-for-12 against the pitch. The lone hit (Omar Infante's double to lead off the game) came on a fastball up-and-away. That's the corner where Lincecum is most vulnerable (.293 opp BA).
The Braves' eagerness to chase meant Lincecum could go out of the zone and still get strikes. Only 44 percent of his pitches were in the zone, second-lowest in a start since the All-Star break, yet Lincecum got 24 strikes on bad balls (17 swings-and-misses, three fouls, two called and two in play). Eleven of his strikeouts came on balls out of the strike zone.
Lincecum forced 31 swings and misses, which is easily a career high and the most for ANY pitcher in ANY game this season. The Braves missed 56.4 percent of their 55 swings.
Lincecum never faced more than four batters in an inning, and the Braves were 0-8 with runners on base and their chase percentage jumped to 44 pct with runners on.
Lastly, an interesting fact about the second inning: Lincecum struck out the side on nine swings and misses. There were some called balls mixed in, so it's not nine pitches, but every strike in that inning was a whiff.

