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Earlier today, the Washington Nationals and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman agreed to a six-year, $100 million contract extension. The contract reportedly includes an option for a seventh year that would keep Zimmerman in Washington through 2020, if exercised. There are several angles for potential analysis, centering around both the historical place of the contract as well as Zimmerman’s own performance.

Angle No. 1: The Contract

Zimmerman’s agreement with the Nationals immediately became the second-largest contract issued in franchise history, falling short only of the free-agent commitment the team made to outfielder Jayson Werth last offseason. When one considers the two years and $26 million that is remaining on his current contract, the Nationals owe Zimmerman $126 million through 2019. With the agreement, Zimmerman becomes one of just six players to be locked up through at least 2019, joining Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp.

The average annual value of the contract works out to $16.7 million, the second-most of any third baseman, behind only Alex Rodriguez, inching past the $16 million average of Adrian Beltre’s recent deal with the Texas Rangers. It is also the third-most lucrative extension signed by a player from the 2005 MLB draft class, behind only Tulowitzki and Braun.

All told, the Nationals have now committed $126 million to Zimmerman starting in 2012. That is the 10th-most money owed to any player in baseball by any team starting this upcoming season.

Angle No. 2: The Performance

Six full seasons into his MLB career, Zimmerman has produced several elite seasons, while also having several seasons marred by injury. There is little question that when he is healthy, he is capable of producing borderline MVP-caliber seasons.

Since the start of the 2006 season -- Zimmerman’s first full year in the majors -- he ranks 11th among all position players in Wins Above Replacement, ahead of such notable large-contract recipients as Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Reyes. He ranks third among third basemen in WAR, behind Rodriguez and David Wright. Much of that value is derived from his defense – according to Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved, Zimmerman ranks third among all position players since 2007 with 73 runs saved and has finished in the top three among third basemen in the category in four of the last five seasons.

He has also produced some of the greatest seasons in Nationals/Expos franchise history. His 2009 and 2010 seasons rank second and fifth, respectively, in franchise history, with his 2009 mark of 7.3 WAR ranking behind only Vladimir Guerrero's 2002 season (7.6) and tied with Tim Raines in 1985 and Gary Carter in 1984.

But while Zimmerman has displayed the ability to be an impact player at times, he’s struggled to do so consistently. 2011 was the second season in the last four that was noticeably impacted by injuries, as Zimmerman played in only 101 games. The injury issues may have had an impact on his performance; between 2009-10, he produced an average line of .299 BA, .893 OPS, 29 home runs and 96 RBI. In 2011, his OPS dropped nearly 100 points to .798, while he hit just 12 home runs. Specifically, Zimmerman has experienced a decline in his power output since 2009, with a corresponding increase in the rate at which he’s hitting balls on the ground.

Presumably, Zimmerman has provided the Nationals with everything they expected when they made him the fourth overall pick in the 2005 MLB draft, as he ranks first in the entire draft class in Wins Above Replacement to this point, ahead of the likes of Tulowitzki, Braun and Justin Upton. But the value of the extension will be based on Zimmerman’s ability to stay on the field and reverse the downward trend in his power output.

It also raises the question of what the Nationals plan to do with third basemen Anthony Rendon, the sixth overall pick from the 2011 draft, to whom Washington gave the ninth-highest major league contract in draft history. But that is an issue for another day. For now, the Nationals locked up the franchise’s best player through 2019 and did so at a total cost of less than they paid Jayson Werth last offseason.

After going from 1983 to 2007 without a single postseason appearance, the Milwaukee Brewers once again played into October in 2011 for the second time in four seasons. It was that team success that helped to propel Ryan Braun to his first National League MVP award.

Braun becomes just the third Brewers player to capture the MVP, joining Robin Yount in 1989 and 1982 and Rollie Fingers in 1981. It comes in a season where he became the first player in franchise history to post a .330 batting average along with 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Further adding to the accolades, he became the first Brewers player since Tommy Harper in 1970 to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a season.

While the final points total revealed just how close Braun and his primary competition for the award, Matt Kemp, were in 2011, Braun dominated the first-place votes, receiving 20 out of 32.

Kemp received 10, with Braun's teammate Prince Fielder and Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks each picking up a single first-place vote.

The tale of Braun's MVP cannot be fully told without discussing what ultimately cost Kemp the recognition -- team success. A look at both traditional and advanced statistics suggest that, in terms of performance, Kemp contributed the superior 2011 season.

For the traditionalists, Kemp exceeded Braun in on-base percentage, home runs, RBI and stolen bases. For those who prefer advanced metrics, Kemp led the National League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) while Braun ranked third, and Kemp ranked third in Win Probability Added (WPA) with Braun fourth.

The difference, of course, was that the Brewers and Braun won the NL Central while Kemp and the Dodgers languished out of contention for much of the year before a late-season surge pushed them above .500.

Ultimately, a Kemp win would have been historically unprecedented, entirely because of the lack of success the Los Angeles Dodgers had this season. Much as Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista saw support erode when their teams missed the postseason, Kemp likely suffered from much the same fate.

Had the voters selected him, the Dodgers' win percentage this season would have been the worst of all-time for a team that had both the Cy Young and MVP in the same season.

Only one team in MLB history has had the MVP and Cy Young awards won by different players in the same season and not made the postseason -- the 1962 Dodgers with Maury Wills and Don Drysdale. Those are steep odds that Kemp was facing and, ultimately, that lack of team success cost him the 2011 MVP.

The Milwaukee Brewers won the first two games at home, but the National League Divisional Series moves to Phoenix Tuesday night. This is the first time in franchise history that the Brewers have taken a 2-0 series lead. In four previous postseason series, the Brewers are just 1-4 with the chance to win a series.

The Arizona Diamondbacks send Josh Collmenter to the mound in an effort to extend the series. The righty faced the Brewers twice during the regular season without allowing a run or an extra-base hit in 14 innings.

The key for Collmenter will be shutting down Ryan Braun, who is 6-for-8 with three extra-base hits in the NLDS. During the regular season, Braun was hitless in six at-bats against Collmenter.

The Brewers counter with Shaun Marcum, who is also making his first postseason start. Marcum struggled down the stretch, with a 1-2 record and 6.66 ERA in his last four regular-season starts.

Miguel Montero is hitless so far in the NLDS, but is the only active Diamondback hitter with a home run off of Marcum. Justin Upton is 2-for-6 against the righty, but has also struck out three times.

The Brewers have struggled on the road during their previous postseason appearances. They have lost the last five games outside Milwaukee while allowing over a run a game more in playoff games away from home.

Since sweeping the Cubs in the 2007 NLDS, Arizona has dropped six straight postseason games. Returning to the desert could provide some relief, as the Diamondbacks are 9-6 in home playoff games.

With their 6-5 come-from-behind win against the Angels Sunday, the New York Yankees increased their lead in the AL East to 3 ½ games in front of the Boston Red Sox. Mariano Rivera picked up his 40th save this season and 599th of his career. He's now one save away from joining Trevor Hoffman as the only players with 600 saves.

Prior to Sunday, the Yankees’ biggest lead in the AL East at the end of any day’s play this season was three games and their largest deficit was also three games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no major-league team has ever gone through an entire season without either leading or trailing in its division (or league before 1969) by more than three games at the end of any day’s play. Since 1900, no other team had done that as far into a season as this year’s Yankees.

The Tampa Bay Rays completed a sweep of the Red Sox after B.J. Upton blew the game open with a grand slam in the fifth inning. With Justin Upton having hit a bases-loaded homer on July 23, Elias also tells us the Uptons became the tenth pair of brothers to hit grand slams in the major leagues in the same season. The Molinas are the only other brothers to do that over the last ten seasons (Bengie and Jose in 2004, Bengie and Yadier in 2010). All three DiMaggio brothers (Joe, Dom and Vince) hit grand slams in 1941.

After 14 straight wins when Vance Worley has started, the Philadelphia Phillies finally lost Sunday with Worley on the mound, 3-2 to the Brewers. According to Elias, the 14 straight wins matched the longest such single-season streak for a rookie pitcher in the Live Ball era. The 1970 Reds won 14 straight behind Wayne Simpson, as did the 1944 Cardinals behind Ted Wilks.

Finally, in our nation's capital, Ian Desmond, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Zimmerman homered back-to-back-to-back as Washington beat the Astros 8-2. It was the first time the Nationals accomplished that feat since July 2009. Stephen Strasburg lasted just three innings and got another no-decision, the shortest start of his career.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the midst of one of the more remarkable turnarounds in baseball history. After taking two of three on the road from the San Francisco Giants, the Diamondbacks now lead the National League West by seven games with just 22 left to play.

Should the Diamondbacks make the playoffs, they would be the third team to do so one year after losing 97 games. Arizona would be the ninth team in baseball history to make the playoffs the year after finishing in last place; of those teams, five made it to the World Series, with the 1991 Minnesota Twins being the only team in history to win the World Series a year after finishing in last place.

No team has ever lost more than 91 games the year before winning the World Series. Only the 1987 Twins won the World Series after losing at least 90 games the season before.

One area that the Diamondbacks have excelled this season is hitting in "late and close" situations -- defined as in the seventh inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck. The Diamondbacks came through again in San Francisco on Sunday, scoring four runs in the eighth inning after trailing 1-0.

In 2010, the Diamondbacks hit .222 in late and close situations, which ranked fourth-worst in the league. This season, no team has been better (see chart).

Who are Arizona’s best players in such spots?

Justin Upton is one; however, with Upton getting ejected in the fourth inning on Sunday, others had to come through. One who did was Ryan Roberts, who has had a terrific season as Arizona’s everyday third baseman. Roberts this seasn is 22-for-59 (.373) in late-and-close situations with 14 walks and 10 RBI.

This may be a trait that the Diamondbacks picked up from their manager, Kirk Gibson, who was the master of one late-and-close situation. He had four regular-season, come-from-behind, walk-off home runs (walk-offs with team trailing at time).

When you include Gibson’s 1988 World Series Game 1 walk-off HR, his five would match the most ever, shared by Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson and Fred McGriff.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies play the middle game of a three-game set in Philadelphia on ESPN’s Wednesday Night Baseball.

Two of the top four teams in the National League square off in the City of Brotherly Love, a city where before Tuesday night’s win, Arizona had lost seven straight and eight of the last nine games to the Phillies.

On the mound

Joe Saunders takes the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight. The lefty has turned around his season of late after an ugly start to the year. After starting 3-7 with a 4.50 ERA, Saunders is 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA over his last 10 starts.

Saunders has not had success against the three Phillies he has faced the most, Placido Polanco (9-23, .391 BA), Raul Ibanez (8-23, .348 BA) and Ben Francisco (5-11, .455 BA).

However, the good news for Saunders is that the player he’s faced the next most is Ryan Howard (0-9, 4 K).

The Phillies counter with Cliff Lee, who’s also had a tale of two seasons. Lee got off to a slow start before having one of the best months ever by a starting pitcher in June.

Over the first two months of the year, Lee went 4-5 with a 3.94 ERA, but is 8-2 with a 1.86 ERA since June (including going 5-0 with a 0.21 ERA in five June starts).

How has Lee done it during this turnaround?

By throwing his curveball more often, which has made his changeup even more effective as a secondary pitch even though he’s throwing it with the same frequency.

Matchups

There are two bona-fide MVP candidates squaring off in this game -- one who gets mentioned all the time (Justin Upton) and one who is routinely passed over (Shane Victorino).

Upton is on the short list of NL MVP candidates this season as he’s broken through to superstardom. He leads all National League players in Wins Above Replacement and is third among all major leaguers.

Victorino’s name doesn’t normally come up when National League MVP candidates are mentioned, but maybe it should, especially since Victorino has played just 93 games to Upton’s 121.

Stat of the game

The Diamondbacks are 33-27 on the road. They haven’t finished a season with a winning road record since 2005 (41-40). One of the biggest keys to that – their pitchers are on pace to allow 67 fewer ROAD walks than last season.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone from worst (65-97 in 2010) to first in the NL West. After Tuesday night’s win, they are 61-49 and tied with the San Francisco Giants for first place in the NL West (the teams finish their three-game series Wednesday afternoon). One of the biggest reasons for this turnaround has been the huge year put up by Justin Upton, a player whose name was floated as possible trade bait last winter. Upton has responded to those rumors by putting up the third-highest Wins Above Replacement (5.3) of any player in the National League.

Upton extended his hitting streak to 14 games Tuesday night with a 398-foot home run in his final at-bat of the game. Upton is the hottest he has been all year; during the 14-game streak, he has more extra-base hits (15) than singles (9), and as many home runs as strikeouts (7). His slash line for the streak is .436/.484/.982, and he’s done all of this against the strong pitching of the Giants and Milwaukee Brewers, as well as in the pitcher-friendly confines of PETCO Park.

Upton has seen roughly the same percentage of pitches in the strike zone this year as he did in 2010, with similar pitch-type breakdowns. What’s changed is that Upton has been far more aggressive at the plate, shown by an increase in his swing rate. He is generating more power as well, putting a greater percentage of the pitches he swings at in play. Despite this increased aggression, Upton has seen a large drop-off in his strikeout rate.

Upton’s GB/FB ratio has also improved for the third straight year, to the point where he is now putting a higher percentage of balls in play in the air (42 percent) than on the ground (37 percent). Upton’s Isolated Power (Batting Average without singles) has spiked 79 points as a result of this increase in fly balls.

Upton turns 24 this month and is locked up through 2015 for a total of $50 million, topping out at a salary of $14 million in 2014 and 2015. The Diamondbacks made a couple of moves at the deadline because they feel they can win in 2011, but with Upton, they have a franchise player to anchor the lineup around for years to come.

Mike Stanton’s 24 home runs this season are well behind Jose Bautista for the MLB lead and a good distance away from Lance Berkman for the NL lead.
But Stanton still has a claim as the man who mashes the most.

Why? Because Stanton has hit 20 home runs this season that went at least 400 feet. That’s not just the most in the majors, it’s three more than anyone else in the league.

Doing the math tells us that 83.3 percent of Stanton’s home runs this season have gone longer than 400 feet. He averages 414.7 feet per homer this season; only Justin Upton (425.6) has a longer average distance.
But home runs don’t just travel far, they travel high as well – and that’s what Vlad Guerrero did against the Blue Jays. Guerrero’s moonshot reached 149 feet at its apex – the second-highest home run this season. Only Adam Dunn’s 150-footer scraped more sky.

Of course, high doesn’t always mean far. Despite its height, Guerrero’s home run had a distance of just 351 feet. In fact, none of the five tallest homers this season have even traveled a distance of 375 feet.

AROUND THE DIAMOND

-Emilio Bonifacio (26 straight games) and Dustin Pedroia (25) both extended their streaks. The last time MLB had concurrent 25-game hit streaks was September 29, 2005. Jimmy Rollins was sitting on 33 games and Michael Young was at 25. Young broke his streak the next day with an 0-for-4 against the Angels.

-On the other end of the spectrum, Craig Counsell is in an 0-for-41 slump for the Brewers. Elias says that his 41 straight AB without a hit is the longest streak in Brewers history, breaking the record of 38 owned by Greg Vaughn in 1990. It’s also the longest by any player for any team since Todd Zeile went 0-for-44 over the 1996-97 seasons.

-For the first time in team history, the Mets swept a four-game road series from the Reds. The Mets recorded their 32nd road win of the season – already matching their total from last season.

-Josh Beckett had never allowed a home run to the Royals despite tossing 55.2 innings against them in his career. He had also never lost to the Royals – a 6-0 record and 2.26 ERA against them. Both of those changed when Billy Butler homered in the fourth inning and the Royals won 4-3.

ESPN's Home Run Tracker analyzes video of each home run hit this season. Each month, the tracker will detail the best and worst home runs, as well as some other interesting statistics pertaining to the long ball. Below are the notable home runs in the months of March and April.

Wall-Scraper: Shortest True Distance
March/April Winner: Sam Fuld, Tampa Bay Rays
Fuld’s 323-foot home run off of Daisuke Matsuzaka on April 11 took just 3.32 seconds to leave the yard. Fortunately for Fuld, his blast came while playing at Fenway Park, the only park that particular batted ball would have been a home run in. Believe it or not, Shane Victorino’s inside-the-park home run April 24 hit of Wade LeBlanc traveled 346 feet.

Moonshot: Highest Apex (Apex: maximum vertical height ball reaches)
March/April Winner: Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles
Although they drop jaws for their height, “moonshot” home runs tend to produce true distances that are far from astonishing. Such is the case for Scott’s fifth-inning home run off Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin on April 16. It traveled just 339 feet, but was hit 148 feet in the air. Scott’s home run took 6.39 seconds to clear the fence, nearly 1.5 seconds longer than the league average (4.85 seconds).

Line Drive: Lowest Apex
March/April Winner: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Bautista’s home run off Tampa Bay’s David Price on April 23 had an apex of just 46 feet. In 3.56 seconds, Bautista’s shot traveled 383 feet.

Fast-ball: Fastest Speed Off Bat
March/April Winner: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
There are many things that can’t travel 116.7 mph, including a large number of automobiles. But that was the speed that ball traveled off Upton’s second-inning homer on April 12 off the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter.

Player Power Surge: Most Combined Distance by One Player
March/April Winner: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Braun tallied 4,089 feet of total home run distance for the months of March and April, squeaking past Alfonso Soriano by 70 feet. Both Braun and Soriano hit 10 home runs in March and April. Five of Braun’s 10 home runs traveled more than 420 feet, including a pair that went 444 and 445 feet.

Server of the Month: Most Combined Distance Allowed by One Pitcher
March/April Winner: Armando Galarraga, Arizona Diamondbacks
The “Imperfect Game” winner has been far from perfect this season. In 28 innings in the month of April, Galarraga allowed 11 home runs (currently on pace to allow 71) that have traveled 4,400 feet.

Wackiest: Most Improbable
March/April Winner: Miguel Olivo, Seattle Mariners
Give an assist to Detroit Tigers outfielder Ryan Raburn on this one. Olivo’s second-inning shot off Phil Coke was about 10 feet short of being a home run, but Raburn’s glove deflected the ball over the fence at spacious Comerica Park. With an apex of just 45 feet, Olivo’s “home run” should win the award for Line Drive of the Month. But, because it required some assistance from Raburn, wackiest is more apropos.

Today’s Trivia: Maybe the most interesting part about the Triple Crown battle going on between Albert Pujols and Joey Votto is that they’re both in the same division and both fighting for playoff spots. It’s more than just a personal duel. Carlos Gonzalez’s competition and Omar Infante’s potential late addition to the pool of candidates notwithstanding, let’s suppose Votto and Pujols finish one-two in batting average this season.

When was the last time two players from the same division finished one-two in the batting average race with BOTH of their teams making the playoffs?


Quick Hits:
Bill James has developed an interesting baseball idea called the Pythagorean win theorem. It’s not as difficult as it sounds – it takes the total runs you score compared to the total runs you allow and gives you an expected win-loss record based on those totals. Sure, every team will have blowouts and close games over the course of a season, so this theory looks at a larger scale – essentially, the team’s winning margin on a full-season basis.

The thing is, your expected win-loss record doesn’t always equal your true win-loss record. Let’s take a look at some teams who are above or below their expected record:

• The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are currently tied for the best record in baseball (78-49), but the Pythagorean win theorem suggests the Yankees should be three games ahead of where they are now (81-46) while the Rays should be one game ahead of where they are now (79-48). That’s because the Yankees have a +164 run margin this season while the Rays are +144.

• In the NL, the St. Louis Cardinals are a whopping six games behind where they should be. They’re at 68-56, but their expected record is 74-50. If they actually WERE 74-50 at this point, they’d be 2½ games up on the Cincinnati Reds instead of 3½ behind.

• Then throw in this factor – the Reds are actually ahead of their expected record. By one game. They’re 73-54, but their expected record is 72-55. That’s because their run margin is +80 this season, compared to +105 for the Cardinals.

• Not many predicted the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres as leaders of their divisions. But would you guess that both teams are actually below their expected records? The Braves are four wins behind, while the Padres are three wins behind. The Padres (+134) and Braves (+112) have the best run margins in the NL.

• Not true for the Philadelphia Phillies, who are actually one game above their expected record. So the Braves and Phils went by their expected record instead of their true record, the Braves would have a 5½-game lead in the division instead of a 2½-game lead.

• Finally, not many people would say the Astros are “good” right now, but they’re still better than they’re expected to be. Their 57-69 record is still a whopping seven games better than their expected record (50-76) thanks to a -111 run margin on the season. Same story for the Pirates, with an unfathomable -246 run margin.

To peruse the numbers yourself, check out this link: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi

Today’s Leaderboard:
We featured Hiroki Kuroda and his futility at the plate in yesterday’s edition, so it’s only fair that we check out the other end of the spectrum too. Yovani Gallardo, pitching this afternoon for the Milwaukee Brewers, has a whopping .836 OPS in 50 at-bats this season. Of his 12 hits this season, seven have gone for extra bases. His four home runs are by far the most among pitchers this season too. Essentially, he’s been a slugger in the nine-hole whenever he starts.


To further bolster Gallardo’s ego, let’s take a look at some of the regular position players who Gallardo has been better than this season.



Key Matchups:
• Kevin Correia will see plenty of his usual foes tonight on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The four batters Correia has seen most in his career – Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, and Justin Upton – are all Diamondbacks. And they’re all batting under .300 against him, including just .195 by Drew.

• Jordan Zimmerman makes his first start of the season tonight for the Washington Nationals and it shouldn’t come as any surprise that he’s not thrilled to face Albert Pujols. Zimmerman has only faced Pujols and the Cardinals once in his career. But in that game, Pujols went 3-3 off Zimmerman with a solo home run in the first inning.

• There might not be anyone who hates facing Cliff Lee as much as Delmon Young does. Young has just a career .125 BA (3-24) against Lee, with a paltry .125 slugging percentage to match. They’ve met each other once already this season, and Lee got Young to go 0-3 including two foul-out pop flies.

Trivia Answer: If you pulled Ichiro Suzuki and Jason Giambi out of your hat, you win today’s trivia. Ichiro and Giambi finished one-two in 2001, when both Ichiro’s Seattle Mariners and Giambi’s Oakland Athletics made the postseason.

Before Ichiro and Giambi, there was Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra. They finished 1-2 in 1999 with both the Yankees and Boston Red Sox reaching the postseason.

But in the NL, since 1995, also known as the Wild Card era, it has never happened where the players that finished one-two in batting average both played on teams that made the postseason – regardless of division.

Quick Hits: The All-Star rosters will be unveiled on Sunday. A year ago, Tim Wakefield, then 42, was selected for the first time in his career. With 188 wins at the time, he was the winningest pitcher of the All-Star era never to have made the team. With his selection, that distinction returned to Mike Torrez and his 185 career wins. Let’s look at some other notable active players who have never been selected:

• With 135 career wins, Jeff Suppan is the winningest active pitcher never to make an All-Star Game.
• Suppan is followed by Darren Oliver and A.J. Burnett, both of whom have won 106 games. An interesting case can be made for Oliver and his 1.49 ERA, which is third among AL relievers.
• Of the 74 active pitchers with 1,000 career innings, Burnett has the lowest ERA (3.92) among those never selected.
• Most notably snubbed in 2002 and 2008, Pat Burrell has the most career home runs (272).
• Adrian Beltre, who ranks second in the majors in batting average and leads all AL third basemen in OPS, has the second most career home runs (262) among active players without an All-Star bid.
• A snub in 2009, Huston Street’s 130 saves are the most among active pitchers who have never been.
• Among those with 3,000 career plate appearances, Nick Markakis (.298) has the highest career batting average. He barely qualifies though. He had his 3,000th career plate appearance last night.
• Travis Hafner has the highest career OPS (.903) for any player in major league history never selected as an All-Star (among those to play in the All-Star era). With four 100-RBI seasons, he’s the only active player with more than two who has never made it. In 2006, he hit .322 with 25 home runs – including a record 5 grand slams – but didn’t make the team.

Today’s Trivia: Who was the last player to win the Cy Young Award after having not been an All-Star that season?

Today’s Leaderboard: For the first time this season, Tim Wakefield and Jamie Moyer – and their combined 90 years of age - are starting on the same day. On May 7, they both pitched, but Wakefield was in relief. So perhaps it’s fitting that Moyer can make some history (again). First, he could pick up his 10th win of the season. It would be his 16th time reaching that total, but just the second time he’s done it before the break. Moyer is going for his 104th win after turning 40, while Wakefield goes for his 41st. Moyer would tie Jack Quinn for the 2nd-most wins after turning 40.

Key Matchups: The Diamondbacks young trio of Justin Upton, Chris Young and Mark Reynolds have combined to hit .163 against Hiroki Kuroda. In 49 at-bats, they’ve struck out 22 times. Perhaps not the welcome to the ranks of big league managers that Kirk Gibson was hoping for.

Chris Iannetta is 6-for-12 in his career against Tim Lincecum. He’s also walked eight times and twice been hit by a pitch against the two-time Cy Young winner. That gives Iannetta a .727 on-base percentage. He’s managed to reach base in all eight games in which they’ve faced one another.

Trivia Answer: In 2004, Johan Santana was just 7-6 with a 3.78 ERA at the break. He went on to win the Cy Young after going 13-0 with a 1.21 ERA in the second half. Jimmy Rollins in 2007 is the last player to win MVP after not being an All-Star.

You often hear talk about "five-tool players" in baseball. We had plenty of hitting for average on Sunday (Jose Guillen and Josh Hamilton both extended their hit streaks to 21 games). We had some power-- more than 70 extra-base hits and two dozen home runs (including the longest one by distance this season). Fielding and throwing didn't give us too many issues.

Baserunning, on the other hand...

No matter which game you watched, there was bound to be at least one of those "head-scratcher" plays. The ones where you look at your TV and say, "what was he thinking?" At the risk of Monday-morning, er, Sunday-night quarterbacking, we present a sampling of the unnecessary, and sometimes obscure, outs that were run into on the basepaths Sunday.

Tampa: Justin Upton on third. Chris Young grounds back to the pitcher. Upton gets run back and tagged out. Young thinks the defense isn't paying attention and tries to take second, where he's also tagged out.

Tampa: Pinch runner Carl Crawford doubled off first when Sean Rodriguez lines one to third base.

Chicago: Gordon Beckham strikes out, but his backswing gets in the way of Geovany Soto as he tries to nail a stealing Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez gets called out for the interference of his teammate.

Cincinnati: Corky Miller thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double.

Anaheim: Jason Giambi thrown out at third trying to advance on a pitch in the dirt.

New York: Jeff Francoeur thrown out trying to tag and take third on a ball to shallow right.

Oakland: Jose Tabata's ground ball hits runner Pedro Alvarez between first and second. Oh, by the way, it's the final out of a one-run game.

(Bonus question: If you're keeping score, how do you write THAT down?)

Florida: Jorge Cantu is called for interference while trying to break up a double play at second base. The batter, Dan Uggla, is called out as a result.

Milwaukee: Rickie Weeks thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double.

Baltimore: Miguel Tejada thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double.

Baltimore: In the bottom of the eighth in a tie game, Julio Lugo legs out a double and then immediately gets himself picked off second.

(Bonus answer: Infield single for the batter. The putout is awarded to the closest fielder, in this case the first baseman.)

** The trunk with the Mets' bats in it finally arrived back at Citi Field. Six consecutive Mets batters went double, homer, homer, triple, single, single, during the fifth inning on Sunday. That's 15 total bases in a single inning. The Mets hadn't had 15 total bases in a GAME since last Tuesday.

** The aforementioned triple was off the bat of Jason Bay, marking his 1,000th career hit. The last time a player had a triple for his 1,000th career hit was almost exactly three years ago, when then-Oriole Aubrey Huff did it on June 29, 2007.

** The Pirates committed four errors and managed to lose Sunday's game to Oakland without allowing an earned run. Even for them, that's impressive. They haven't done that since June 29, 2002, when the Tigers scored on a missed catch at home plate and a passed ball to beat them 2-1.

** One afterthought on the Oakland/Pittsburgh series: On Saturday, the two teams donned "throwback" uniforms from the 1970s. (They say styles have a 30-year cycle, so watch for neon green to make a comeback soon.) But you have to forgive those two teams for wanting to "turn back the clock". During the '70s they combined for five world championships, including four straight from 1971-74. Since then, they have ONE (Oakland's in '89).

** Jamie Moyer didn't quite pitch IN the '70s, but at the rate he's going, he might well pitch INTO his 70s. Moyer became the all-time leader in home runs allowed on Sunday when Vernon Wells took him deep in the third inning.



Bonus question #2: Those 42 parks include ALL of the current 30 stadiums except two. We'll spot you Target Field because it just opened. What's the other current park where Moyer has yet to surrender a dinger? ** After being no-hit by Edwin Jackson on Friday, the Rays put together a two-hit attack against Arizona on Sunday. They did at least score a run this time. Ironically, the last team that was held to two or fewer hits twice in a series was these same Diamondbacks. That was in late May against the Giants.

** Combined with their amazing five-hit performance on Saturday, the Rays ended up with seven base hits over the entire three-game series. The Elias Sports Bureau tells us that the last team to finish with seven or fewer hits in a three-game series was the 1965 New York Mets. They were one-hit by the Milwaukee Braves on both September 10 and 11 before "exploding" for five hits (and a 1-0 victory!) in the series finale on the 12th.

Bonus answer #2: Busch Stadium in St Louis. Moyer surrendered three long balls in the PRIOR Busch Stadium (which closed in 2005), but has made only two visits to the current building.

With one out in the 8th inning on Wednesday, Joe Mauer came to the plate with men on the corners and the game tied at two. The Yankees chances of getting out of the inning without allowing a run seemed bleak. But last year’s American League MVP grounded into an inning-ending and double play.

That was the fourth time this season that Joe Mauer grounded into a double-play with men in scoring position, matching his total from a season ago. That got us thinking: who are the least clutch players in these situations? Fellow researcher Mark Simon, who has a knack for naming these stats, dubbed the one which we are about to present the “Rally-Killing Rate”.
There are certainly many ways to kill a rally, but for the purposes of this metric we’re only taking strikeouts and double-plays with runners in scoring position into account.

The calculation is as follows:
(K with RISP + (GIDP with RISP * 2))/PA with RISP

Double plays are counted as double because, well, they result in twice as many outs. What we end up with is essentially the rate at which a player grounds into a double play or strikes out with men in scoring position – or a “rally-killing rate.”

With the explanation out of way, now let’s take a look at this year’s worst rally killers (234 players with at least 30 PA with RISP were eligible).

Simply put, Napoli has been a liability with runners in scoring position. Nearly half (16 out of 36) of his opportunities with runners in scoring position have resulted in strikeouts or double plays.


Atkins barely qualifies with just 30 plate appearances, but he’s been astoundingly bad in those few opportunities. His five double plays is tied for second, trailing only Miguel Cabrera, who’s had exactly twice as many plate appearances.


Wright has decent total numbers this season (33 RBI) mainly because he’s had so many opportunities. His 63 plate appearances with runners in scoring position ranks as the 10th most in the game.


After a hot start, Olivo has cooled off considerably. He now has just a .304 OBP with runners in scoring position.


At the rate Ortiz is going, it certainly seems as though he’ll soon fall out of the top five. He’s batting .385 with a .713 slugging percent with runners in scoring position in May.


And here are a few others that many surprise you: Justin Upton (7th out of 234), Ryan Zimmerman (24th), Joe Mauer (36th) and Miguel Cabrera (45th)

Nearly three years ago, Barry Bonds hit home run No. 756 off Mike Bacsik of the Nationals to pass Hank Aaron on the all-time homer list. Bonds was unable to sign with a team after the 2007 season, and while he still hasn't officially announced his retirement, his chances of adding to his 762 career homers are slimmer than a 2010 World Series in Houston.

It's no great shock that, given the explosion of offense in baseball between 1992 and 1994, someone would topple Aaron's record. What might be surprising is that Bonds was the only one to come within sniffing distance. This is a testament to what a difficult accomplishment 755 is, even at a time when it's a bit easier to hit homers. However, there are a few current players with a shot at the home run record, and we have enough data to set the odds on who has the best chance.

A big part of Aaron's success was his health. From 1955 through 1971, Aaron averaged 153 games a year. Thanks to simply being able to play in a lot of games, he managed to get the career record despite not having the most home runs before the age of 30 or after 30. While the 366 homers Aaron had through his age-30 season don't exactly make him the tortoise in this fable, he clearly was off the pace of the best before or since.



Even with better medicine and training regimens, age and injury knocked off most of Aaron's recent competition, except for Bonds, who slugged 292 through age 30 (and isn't among the leaders listed above) and 470 after, which is when he did most of his damage. Griffey, once the favorite to pass Aaron, has played in 140 games in a season just twice in the past decade and is at the end of the line. Mark McGwire was out of baseball three years after hitting 70 in a season, and Sammy Sosa struggled to clear 600. Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome can still get to 600, but neither has enough time to make it much further than that. So we can pretty much close the book on that generation.

So, of the younger generation, who could catch Bonds? A-Rod and Pujols are the obvious candidates. Rodriguez, despite a disappointing start, should finish this season with around 150 homers to go and seven years remaining on his 10-year, $275 million contract. Pujols is a good month from being halfway there and just turned 30 this winter. But what about everyone else?

To figure out the odds of Bonds' record being broken, I used the Monte Carlo method and aging probabilities derived from baseball history. In the end, I came up with 11 current hitters with an established chance at hitting 763 home runs.



Unsurprisingly, A-Rod and Pujols are the prohibitive favorites. After those two are a lot of players who should see their chances either increase or decrease sharply in the next few years.

If Justin Upton continues to develop into a 30- to 40-homers-a-year player, he could be clearing 100 by his 25th birthday. Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn don't seem like great candidates to age well, but if they age like Jim Thome instead of Mo Vaughn, they both can make serious runs.

Don't underestimate the effect that parks can have on these chances. If Adrian Gonzalez had stayed in Texas, for example, his odds would go up significantly. If Bonds or Aaron had played in the Houston Astrodome, we probably wouldn't even be talking about them as record holders right now.

Of the 11 players above, my model estimates a 70 percent chance that one of those 11 names will break Bonds' record, which is a good thing if you're not a fan of the controversial ex-Giant.

Dan Szymborski is the editor in chief of Baseball Think Factory.

The Diamondbacks enter the 2010 season with a slew of question marks about their roster. Will Brandon Webb successfully return from shoulder surgery? Can Edwin Jackson make fans forget the questionable trade of Max Scherzer? Is this the year Stephen Drew finally establishes himself as a legit threat? And will Chris Young stop hitting like he’s the other Chris Young? With so much up in the air, it’s easy to forget the Snakes boast superstar-in-the-making Justin Upton -- and the numbers show he might be the best young talent in the game. We've spent a lot of time this spring talking about what Jason Heyward might do; it's easy to forget that Upton is already doing it.

Upton's 2009 campaign was so good that there are few to which you can compare it. After all, how many 21-year-olds are capable of producing a .366 OBP/.532 SLG in the major leagues with 20-plus dingers and 20-plus steals? To find out, we sifted through about the past half-century of players, looking for those who met the following criteria in a season:

• 21 or younger
• 450 plate appearances or more
• .350 OBP or higher
• .500 SLG or higher
• 20 home runs or more
• 10 stolen bases or more

And only seven players qualified:



Upton placed himself in extremely limited company last season, and his peers don’t need any introduction. Even the lesser-known names above -- like Vada Pinson and Cesar Cedeno -- carved out solid careers, with the former racking up more than 2,700 hits, 256 homers and 305 steals, and the latter bopping 199 dingers to go with 550 steals.

But here's another way to put Upton's 2009 season in perspective: How many players his age or younger have produced a .230 Isolated Power? Fourteen.

Players who have achieved the feat include Eddie Matthews, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio, among others.

PECOTA forecasts Upton to hit a nice .282 BA/.357 OBP/.501 SLG in his third full season -- a bit of a regression from his fantastic 2009 campaign. But when a slash line like that seems low to the naked eye, you know you have something special. Although Upton hasn’t forced his way into the spotlight by hitting 40 home runs or stealing 50 bases, it's only a matter of time before he does.

Eric Seidman is an author of Baseball Prospectus.