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In most cases, Major League Baseball free agency comes down to one determining factor: Money. We posed the question, “Where should Adrian Beltre play?” based on finding Beltre’s best statistical fit.

According to Keith Law’s “Buyer’s Guide”, Adrian Beltre is by far the top free agent third baseman this winter. Beltre had a tremendous year in Boston this season, hitting .321 with 28 home runs and eclipsing the 100-RBI mark for only the second time in his career. He also had a .365 OBP and a very respectable .919 OPS. His 49 doubles on the season also marked a career-high.

So naturally his best fit is with the Boston Red Sox, right? Not necessarily.

The 2010 season was Beltre’s best season since his near-MVP year in 2004 with the Dodgers, and by all accounts, he just looked comfortable with the Red Sox. In Boston, Beltre is surrounded by talent, played a strong third base and loved hitting at Fenway, as evidenced by his career-high in doubles and .314 average at home. Beltre’s successes weren’t limited to Fenway though, as he hit more doubles (30) and home runs (19) on the road than he did at home. This isn’t odd for Beltre, who has hit 32 points higher on the road for his career.

Beltre’s power swing fits Fenway Park perfectly. According to Hit Tracker, of his 111 home runs since 2006, 72 traveled to left field. His average home run distance was 396 feet over this span. Of the 420 home runs hit to left field at Fenway Park since 2006, the average distance has been 383 feet, putting Beltre’s average well beyond the distance needed to have high home run outputs at Fenway. Beyond the team being a solid fit for Beltre, the ballpark is just as cozy.

However, Boston isn’t Beltre’s only solid fit. The Chicago White Sox have a need at third base, and a very hitter-friendly park themselves, as U.S. Cellular Field led the Majors with 1.545 HR per game. If “Sox” aren’t Beltre’s style, he could pass them up for a pair of thermals in Colorado. The Rockies boast the most famous homer-happy stadium in baseball. In 2010, Coors Field was rated as the top hitters park in all of baseball, including an average of 1.496
home runs per game, good for second in the majors.

Beltre is no stranger to Coors Field. In 58 career games, Beltre has hit .399 with a .446 OBP while smashing 16 home runs and driving in 63 runs. He’s also managed a .715 slugging percentage and a staggering 1.161 OPS there. In addition to being a great fit for his bat, Beltre would join Gold Glove shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, anchoring what would have to be one of the strongest left-side defenses in all of baseball.

Colorado could look to upgrade from their platoon of Ian Stewart and Melvin Mora at third base. Mora, a “free agent to avoid” according to Law, will most likely not be back with the Rockies in 2011. Ian Stewart is still young, at 25, but has failed to make the kind of progress the Rockies were hoping for when they drafted him 10th overall in 2003. Most concerning is Stewart’s inability to hit lefties (.231 average in 2010), making him a platoon option at best. However, if the Rockies believe in Stewart, they could still make a play for Beltre while grooming Stewart to replace Todd Helton.

Let's take a look at some notes from around baseball on Tuesday night:

• The New York Yankees hit five HR for the second time this season in their win at the Toronto Blue Jays. It's the first time the Yanks have hit five HR at Toronto since 2004.

• Derek Jeter hit his 10th HR, and now has 10+ HR and 10+ SB in 15 consecutive seasons. In MLB history (according to the Elias Sports Bureau), only Barry Bonds has a longer such streak. Bonds did this in 16 straight seasons from 1986 to 2001.

• The Chicago Cubs improved to 2-0 under Mike Quade with their win over the Washington Nationals. Alfonso Soriano smacked his 20th HR, giving him nine straight 20-HR seasons. That is tied for the third-longest active streak in baseball. Alex Rodriguez (15 straight season) and Albert Pujols (10) have the only two longer streaks.

• Also for the Cubs, Tyler Colvin hit his 19th HR. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that is tied for the third-most HR by a rookie in Cubs history. Only Billy Williams (25) and Geovany Soto (23) have ever hit more. Ernie Banks is one of three others to also hit 19.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates knocked off the St. Louis Cardinals, 4-3. It's the second time in the last week that the Cardinals lost a one-run game, leaving the bases loaded with two outs in the ninth inning.

• The New York Mets topped the Florida Marlins with Luis Castillo's walk-off single. It's Castillo's seventh career walk-off hit (third with the Mets). It's just the third walk-off loss of the season for the Marlins (only the Yankees have fewer).

• The Oakland Athletics topped the Cleveland Indians, 5-0, as Gio Gonzalez pitched seven shutout innings. Athletics starters have tossed a franchise-record 16 consecutive quality starts. Gonzalez is 4-0 with a 0.89 ERA in five career starts vs the Indians.

• The Detroit Tigers knocked off the Kansas City Royals, 9-1. Detroit has now won five straight, outscoring its opponents 40-7 during this streak. Miguel Cabrera drove in his MLB-leading 104th run of the season, surpassing his total from last season.

• The Texas Rangers defeated the Minnesota Twins, 4-3. Josh Hamilton hit his 29th HR and has now driven in a run in five straight games for the fifth time in his career. Neftali Feliz notched his 32nd save, which is the fourth-most by a rookie since saves became an official stat in 1969.

• The Chicago White Sox topped the Baltimore Orioles, but Luke Scott hit his 25th HR for Baltimore, matching the career high he set last season. He's the first Oriole with 25+ HR in back-to-back seasons since Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora in 2004-05. His 13 HR since the All-Star Break are the most by anyone not named Jose Bautista.

The Mariners front office threw their fans for a loop on the first team workout of the spring when second baseman Jose Lopez trotted out to third base while newly-acquired third baseman Chone Figgins positioned himself at second. As Dave Cameron noted on this blog, “More and more, teams are realizing that if you can play a quality third base, you probably have the skills to transition to second, and vice versa.” But if it doesn’t matter who’s playing where, why bother?

Fast forward to the first week of the season: Rajai Davis hit a sharp ground ball off Doug Fister that sped toward the 3B/SS hole. Lopez, playing in on the grass with the chance of a bunt from the speedy Davis, dove to his left but missed the ball by inches. I couldn’t help but think to myself, “I’d bet that Adrian Beltre or Chone Figgins would have come up with that ball, and Lopez just cost them a base hit.” Before I could finish the thought, shortstop Jack Wilson flew into the picture, backhanded the ball, set his feet and launched a rocket to first, just in time to get Davis. Wilson bailed out Lopez, Fister, and the Mariners on a play that Figgins might have made (had he been playing third).

Sure, it’s just one play, but this example illustrates that playing two good fielders on the left side of the infield could cause some overlap, effectively making the total less than the sum of the parts. On some ground balls, both the third baseman and the shortstop could make the play, but only one needs to.

I created a model of the Mariners’ infield using each player’s 2009 performance. I’ll spare you the long explanation for now (I’m running over my word count as it is), but I projected the distribution of ground balls allowed by Mariner pitching in 2009 onto their projected infield before and after the swap. Since I didn’t have a model for Lopez and Figgins at their new positions, I used average third basemen (Melvin Mora, Kevin Kouzmanoff) and above-average second basemen (Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Aaron Hill) as proxies at their respective positions.

For example, let’s compare the Mora/Wilson/Pedroia/Casey Kotchman infield to Figgins/Wilson/Lopez/Kotchman. Adding up the full season of plays, the drop-off at third was significant, but Jack Wilson reached most of the grounders anyway. In fact, Mora (Lopez’s proxy at third base) covers an estimated 58 fewer plays than Figgins, but Wilson’s elite defense makes up 45 of those from shortstop! Add in the 18-play increase from Lopez to Pedroia (Figgins' proxy) at second base, and it’s a net gain of five plays for the team. Using similar infield proxies at third and second, the Mariners’ improvement ranges from zero to 15 plays per season as a result of the swap. Even though it’s not a huge improvement, every run could make a difference in the competitive AL West.

Regardless of the reasons, the (very) early returns on the position swap are positive: Figgins has saved one run at second according to Baseball Info Solutions, while Jose Lopez has accumulated eight Runs Saved, leading all third basemen. So far, so good in Seattle.