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After taking Andrew Luck with the first pick overall on Thursday, the Indianapolis Colts continued to overhaul their offense on Friday.

The Colts became the seventh team in the common draft era to draft three pass catchers (wide receivers or tight ends) in the first three rounds. After adding Luck’s Stanford Cardinal tight end Coby Fleener in the second round, they picked tight end Dwayne Allen and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton in the third round.

The last team to select three pass catchers in the first three rounds was the New York Giants. They chose Hakeem Nicks, Ramses Barden and Travis Beckum in the 2009 draft.

Last season, Colts tight ends dropped nine passes, tied for second-most in the NFL. They are the first team to draft two tight ends in the first three rounds since the St. Louis Rams in 2006. Among NFL teams last year, the Colts ran the fourth-fewest plays in multiple-tight end sets.

By taking Luck and Fleener, they were the first team to draft a quarterback and tight end from the same school in a draft since the 2003 Houston Texans, who picked Drew Henson and Bennie Joppru from the Michigan Wolverines.

Luck threw multiple touchdown passes to his tight ends in nine of Stanford’s 13 games last season. No FBS quarterback attempted more passes or gained more yards when targeting tight ends. Fleener led all FBS tight ends with 10 touchdown receptions of at least 20 yards over the last two seasons.

Draft chatter
• The Denver Broncos selected defensive tackle Derek Wolfe with the 36th pick. Last year, the Broncos recorded only two sacks from players lining up on the interior of the defensive line, tied with the New Orleans Saints for the fewest among teams playing a 4-3 defense.

• The Rams selected North Alabama’s Janoris Jenkins with the 39th pick. It was the highest that a Division II player has been picked since Ricardo Colclough of Tusculum went 38th overall in 2004.

• Bobby Wagner went 47th overall to the Seattle Seahawks, the first player from the Utah State Aggies to go in the first two rounds since Rulon Jones was a second-round pick in 1980.

• By taking safety Tavon Wilson in the second rounds, the New England Patriots drafted a defensive player with their first three picks. Last season, the Patriots had 12 players play at least 100 snaps at defensive back, most in the NFL.

• The Pittsburgh Steelers selected offensive tackle Mike Adams late in the second round. Pittsburgh used a league-high 25 different offensive line combinations last season.

• The San Francisco 49ers selected LaMichael James 61st overall. It’s the fourth straight season that the 49ers drafted a running back. Last season, San Francisco targeted running backs just 54 times, second-fewest in the NFL.

Stats & Information gets you ready for the NFL Draft at the end of the month with a look at the biggest need for each team. Today, we take a look at the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills
Needs: Offensive line, wide receiver

The Bills had five different offensive line combinations play at least 100 snaps last season, tied for most among any NFL team. Their most-used group played 184 plays together, the fewest of any team’s most-used unit. They also lost tackle Demetress Bell via free agency to the Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills could also look for a wide receiver. They used sets with at least three wide receivers 81 percent of the time, the highest rate in the NFL, but their 6.5 yards per pass attempt in three-wide formations ranked only 19th-best.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Miami Dolphins
Need: Offense

The Dolphins missed out on Peyton Manning, and also traded away wide receiver Brandon Marshall to the Chicago Bears. They also have an aging right tackle in Marc Colombo. The Dolphins averaged 5.3 yards running to the left last season, but only 3.9 when running to Colombo’s side.

In terms of quarterback, Miami’s weakness last season was that it threw 10 touchdowns and completed 56 percent of passes when the opponent used at least five defensive backs. Those ranked 21st and 25th in the NFL respectively.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

New York Jets
Need: Pass rush

The Jets used five-or-more pass rushers 43 percent of the time under Rex Ryan, the second-highest rate over the last three seasons. But they recorded only 7.5 sacks from players lined up as outside linebackers (standing off the line of scrimmage), fifth-worst among the 15 teams that play a 3-4 defense.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

New England Patriots
Need: Pass rush/defensive line

The Patriots picked up 23.5 sacks from defensive ends last season, 20 of which came from Mark Anderson (signed with Bills) and Andre Carter (free agent).

They sacked or put opponents under duress on 20 percent of their drop-backs last season, the fifth-worst rate in the NFL. They also allowed 2.9 yards per rush prior to contact, the fourth-worst rate in the league.

Kiper’s 1st-Round Prediction: Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State (27th) and Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati (31st)
McShay’s 1st-Round Prediction: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse (27th) and Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut (31st)

Just over two months after meeting in Super Bowl XLVI, the New York Giants and New England Patriots learned their 2012 outlook when the NFL schedule was released Tuesday night. To put it simply, one team has a slightly tougher road than the other.

The Giants will face the league’s most difficult schedule this season, including a lethal stretch that will pit them against four of last year’s playoff teams (vs Green Bay Packers, vs New Orleans Saints, at Atlanta Falcons, at Baltimore Ravens) in the final six games. In fact, each of their last 11 games is against a divisional opponent or team coming off a postseason appearance.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, New York is the first defending champion to have the toughest schedule, and the club with the hardest slate has failed to make the playoffs in six of the last seven years.

History is on the Giants’ side, though, when they face the Dallas Cowboys in the 2012 opener, which will be the first Wednesday NFL game since 1948. The reigning Super Bowl champs have won 12 straight openers.

Meanwhile, after having the second-easiest schedule last season, the Patriots have the simplest set of opponents in 2012. Tom Brady and company play exactly one road game against a 2011 playoff team: Week 3 at Baltimore.

Having the easiest slate hasn’t been a blessing in recent years, however. According to Elias, the last five such teams have failed to reach the postseason.

SCHEDULE HIGHLIGHTS

• In his first game with the Denver Broncos and first start since January 2011, Peyton Manning will square off with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night in a rematch of last season's playoff clash. The Steelers will then face Denver’s previous quarterback, Tim Tebow, when they host the New York Jets in Week 2. The Jets open the campaign against the Buffalo Bills.

• Both Ravens-Steelers matchups will take place within a 15-day span (Weeks 11 and 13) and are part of a treacherous closing stretch for Baltimore. The defending AFC North champs face playoff teams from last season in five of their final seven games.

• The 15-1 Packers have an interesting start to their slate, hosting the San Francisco 49ers in the opener before a quick turnaround for a Thursday-night clash with the rival Chicago Bears. They then are likely to face former quarterback Matt Flynn when traveling to play the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night before returning home to face the Saints.

• If the draft goes as expected, with the Indianapolis Colts selecting quarterback Andrew Luck first and the Washington Redskins taking quarterback Robert Griffin III second, that pair will not exactly be eased into professional competition. The Colts open the season on the road against the Bears, and the Redskins start the year at New Orleans.

• Jim Schwartz and Jim Harbaugh, who famously had a sideline spat after last season’s contest, won’t have to wait long to see each other again. The 49ers host the Detroit Lions in Week 2 on Sunday night.

Super Bowl XLVI between the New York Giants and New England Patriots featured several key moments on which the outcome of the game could have swung significantly.

The ESPN Analytics Team looked at a few of those moments and analyzed them based on our historic win probability data from the past 10 seasons. Here’s what we found.

How much should the Patriots rue their missed opportunities?
The Patriots just missed converting two plays that would have made a significant difference in the outcome of the game.

A couple plays after Tom Brady threw an interception for the game’s only turnover early in the fourth quarter, Ahmad Bradshaw fumbled with the Giants deep in their own territory.

Fortunately for Bradshaw and the Giants, Chris Snee recovered the ball at the 11, keeping possession of the ball.

Had the Patriots recovered the fumble, their win probability would have jumped to from 69 percent to 78 percent. So the inability to recover Bradshaw’s fumble cost the Patriots nearly 10% in terms of win probability.

Similarly, with the Patriots facing a 2nd-and-11 from the Giants 44, leading 17-15 with 4:06 left in the fourth quarter, Wes Welker dropped a pass from Tom Brady at the Giants 21.

Suppose he made the catch and gained six more yards after the catch (he had some space around him and would probably have been able to pick up a few yards). In that case, the Patriots would have had a 1st-and-10 from the Giants 15, and their win probability would have increased from 73 percent to 84 percent.

Should the Patriots have let the Giants score?
With the Giants having the ball inside the Patriots 10 with just over a minute to go, the Patriots had a decision to make: let the Giants score right away and leave as much time as possible for their offense, or play defense and hope for a turnover or missed field goal.

The math shows that the Patriots were in a deep hole either way.

If they held the Giants out of the end zone and made them attempt a last-second field goal, it would have had a very high likelihood of success.

This season, NFL kickers were 37-for-38 (97.4 percent) on game-tying or go-ahead field attempts from inside of 26 yards (the longest field goal attempt the Giants likely would have ended up with) with under a minute and a half left in the 4th quarter.

On the other hand, the Patriots’ win probability after Bradshaw’s touchdown with 57 seconds remaining was only 3.4 percent.

This is confirmed by historical analysis of similar situations.

The Patriots took over on their own 20, needing a touchdown to win the game and 57 seconds to go 80 yards.

Since 2001, NFL teams beginning a drive between their own 10 and own 30 when trailing by four to eight points (in other words, needing the touchdown) with between 40 seconds and 1:15 left in the fourth quarter have scored a touchdown just twice on 63 such drives, a 3.2 percent success rate.

So essentially the Patriots were choosing between a 2.6 percent chance of winning via a missed field goal (maybe a bit higher if you account for the very small likelihood of a fumbled snap or something like that) and a little bit better than a three percent chance of winning with a game-winning touchdown drive after letting the Giants score.

Either way, the decision had a very small impact on the overall outcome – the Patriots had essentially lost the game on the preceding plays of the Giants’ final drive.

What were the biggest plays of the game?
Here are the biggest plays of the game in terms of changes in win probability from before to after the play.

1. Ahmad Bradshaw’s rushing touchdown in the final minute raised the Giants' win probability from 74 percent to 97 percent.

2. Tom Brady’s touchdown pass to Danny Woodhead in the final seconds of the second quarter raised the Patriots' win probability from 42 percent to 56 percent.

3. Eli Manning’s 38-yd pass to Mario Manningham with just under four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter raised the Giants’ win probability from 37 percent to 49 percent.

The New York Giants are Super Bowl champions again, winning Super Bowl XLVI against the New England Patriots by the same margin and in a similar thrilling fashion as their regular-season victory.

Once again, quarterback Eli Manning was the king of the fourth-quarter comeback, something he’s done multiple times in his career against the Patriots.

Here’s a deeper look at the notes, stats, and trends behind this game.

Why the Giants won
Manning joined a list of players to win multiple Super Bowl MVPs, along with Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, and Tom Brady. Manning’s fourth-quarter performance was a near-duplicate of his previous Super Bowl effort, as the chart on the right shows.

Via Elias, Manning set a Super Bowl record for the most consecutive completions by a quarterback to start a game, with nine. The previous mark was held by Phil Simms for the Giants against the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXI.

Manning was precise on his short passes, completing 28-of-32 throws that traveled fewer than 15 yards in the air. His 88 percent completion rate on those throws considerably exceeded his season rate of 67 percent entering the game.

Manning’s 75 percent completion rate overall was the second-best ever in a postseason game for a quarterback who threw at least 40 passes. The only one better was Drew Brees, earlier this postseason against the Detroit Lions.

It was Manning’s eighth game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime this season, most in the NFL, two more than Tim Tebow and Alex Smith. His five career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and overtime of postseason are tied with Joe Montana for third-most all-time, behind Tom Brady (7) and John Elway (6).

Why the Patriots lost
Brady had a good game statistically, setting the record for consecutive Super Bowl completions with 16, and combining with Manning for a 70.4 percent completion rate (fourth-best by quarterbacks in Super Bowl history). But he could not quite match Manning’s performance.

Brady was 0-for-5 when throwing the ball at least 20 yards in the air downfield, including both the intentional grounding that gave the Giants a safety and the game’s first score, and the incomplete Hail Mary attempt into the end zone on the game’s final play.

The last time Brady failed to complete a pass of that length with at least five attempts was in Super Bowl XLII (0-for-8).

Rob Gronkowski, one of Brady's favorite targets, was on the field for 45 of the Patriots' 62 plays (73 percent), his lowest percentage of plays on the season. Gronkowski was held to three catches and 26 yards and was the intended receiver on Brady’s interception.

Pivotal Plays
Giants: Manning completed only 2-of-8 throws of 15 yards or longer, but one of the two completions was huge -- the 38-yard catch at midfield by Mario Manningham on the Giants game-winning drive.

Patriots: Wide receiver Wes Welker had a crucial drop on 2nd-and-11 with 4:06 remaining in the game on a pass thrown 23 air yards down the field that would have given New England possession in the red zone.

Welker was credited with five drops in the first 18 games of the season, none on a throw more than 10 air yards downfield. His rate of passes dropped was seventh-best in the NFL this season, among those targeted at least 100 times.

Under the Radar
Theme of the postseason: The Giants picked up 100 yards after contact on offense in Super Bowl XLVI, something they did in three of their four playoff wins. In the regular season, the Giants picked up 100 yards after contact just twice (Week 3 vs Eagles and Week 16 vs Jets).

Unsung hero: The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Giants punter Steve Weatherford is the first punter in Super Bowl history to pin an opponent inside the 10 three times in one game.

Stat of the Game
The Giants are first team to win a Super Bowl with fewer than 10 regular-season wins since NFL went to 16-game schedule in 1978 (excluding strike-shortened seasons).

The Giants are the second team to win both a regular season game and a Super Bowl against the same opponent by the same margin. The Giants beat the Patriots twice by four points, matching the 1994 San Francisco 49ers, who beat the Chargers by 23 points in both the regular season and Super Bowl XXIX.

For the second time in five seasons, the New York Giants completed an epic Super Bowl run with a come-from-behind victory in the final minute over the New England Patriots.

It was a game reminiscent of the one that took place in Super Bowl XLII. Let's take a quick look at the notes and nuggets from this historic victory.

• This was the Giants eighth NFL championship and fourth Super Bowl win. The Giants are the fifth team to win at least four Super Bowl titles.

• The Giants are the first team to win a Super Bowl with fewer than 10 regular-season wins since NFL went to 16-game schedule in 1978 (excluding strike-shortened seasons).

• The Giants are now 3-2 vs the New England Patriots since 2001, Tom Brady’s first year as starter. The only other team with a winning record against New England during that span is Denver (6-4).

• The Giants have won seven straight postseason road/neutral site games. That is the longest streak in NFL history.

• The Giants finished the regular season minus-6 in point differential, becoming the only Super Bowl team with a negative point differential during the regular season.

• The Giants beat four teams this postseason that combined to win 51 regular-season games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that matches the most combined wins of defeated opponents by a Super Bowl champion.

• Tom Coughlin is 65 years and 158 days old, making him the oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl, surpassing Dick Vermeil (age 63). He now has nine road/neutral-site postseason wins, matching Tom Landry’s postseason record. Coughlin is 9-4. Landry was 9-10.

• Eli Manning became the 11th starting quarterback to win multiple Super Bowl titles and the eighth to win his first two Super Bowl starts.

• The Patriots are now tied for the most Super Bowl losses all-time. Their four defeats match the Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, and Minnesota Vikings.

• Since the start of 2006 season, the Patriots are 22-4 vs the NFC, including the postseason. Of the four losses, three came against the Giants. The other was to the New Orleans Saints during the 2009 season.

Kickoff is nearly at hand for Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. The New York Giants and New England Patriots will meet in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII and a Week 9 game this season, both wins by the Giants.

This game has been analyzed and discussed non-stop for two weeks, but here are 10 things you might not have heard:

• Let’s start with the coin toss. The past 29 times the Patriots have won the pregame coin toss they have elected to defer the choice until the second half. The last (and only) time they chose to receive since that option was started in 2006, was Week 1 of the 2008 season against the Kansas City Chiefs – the day Tom Brady’s season ended with an injury.

• On the other hand, from Week 1 in 2008 to Dec. 4, 2011, the Giants chose to receive on every opening coin toss they won, a streak of 30 regular-season and playoff games where they chose to receive. But then in Week 17 this season against the Dallas Cowboys, with their season on the line, they chose to defer.

• This marks the fourth time the Giants have met a team in the Super Bowl that they had defeated in the same regular season. They are 3-0 in those past rematches.

• Since 2006 the Patriots have played 25 games against NFC opponents, including postseason. They are 21-1 against NFC teams OTHER than Giants, but 1-2 against the Giants. The only other NFC team to beat the Patriots in that time is the New Orleans Saints in 2009.

• At 65, Tom Coughlin could become the oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl. Bill Belichick, 59, would be the fourth-oldest head coach to win a Super Bowl.

• Seven different head coaches have won the last seven Super Bowls: Belichick, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Coughlin, Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy. It’s the first time that seven different head coaches have won seven successive Super Bowls. But that streak will end tonight.

• Tonight’s game will mark the first Super Bowl matching two starting quarterbacks who were both former Super Bowl MVPs. Tom Brady won it twice, while Eli Manning won it against the Patriots four years ago.

• Manning and Brady will be the third set of starting quarterbacks to meet in multiple Super Bowls. In the previous repeats (Troy Aikman vs. Jim Kelly, Terry Bradshaw vs. Roger Staubach), the QB who won the first game also won the second.

• Tom Brady has thrown only one interception in 156 career passes in the Super Bowl. He was picked off by Panthers cornerback Reggie Howard in Super Bowl XXXVIII. That gives Brady the second-lowest career interception rate among the 15 QBs with at least 50 Super Bowl passes, behind Joe Montana, who was never intercepted in 122 pass attempts.

• The Giants have gained a first down on six of 12 plays on third down with 10+ yards to go during this postseason. The league average in that category this season was 19.7 percent, just about the rate at which the Giants converted during the regular season (19.6).

It’s always about the measurables, right? Emotions disappear as soon as the ball is kicked off. Past results are fuel for pregame talk but a new game is a new event with its own, unique set of dynamics. And the vagaries of good and bad luck seem to even out over the long run.

The real insight comes from the stats, or at least that’s what we like to think. Stats is our name, after all.

We asked ESPN analysts what they thought would be the key stat Sunday night when the New York Giants meet the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI, and we posed that same question on the SIG Twitter feed to sports fans.

So what did they say?

A lot of them responded “points,” which made us smile. Yes, the point totals on the scoreboard will prove to be very significant. But other fans had other ideas.

Turnovers margin was a common theme. One fan wondered which team was the last – if it’s ever happened – to win the Super Bowl despite losing in the turnover-margin column. That's happened only three times in Super Bowl history, with the last instance coming in 2006.

Other suggestions included Tom Brady’s average time in the pocket, average yards on first down, average yards on third down, yards per pass attempt, even kick return yards and sacks by Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul.

We’ve narrowed the list to our three favorite suggestions and are asking you to vote on which one you want us to track Sunday. We’ll write a blog post about it after the game.

Click here to vote

Earlier this week, New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul claimed that Tom Brady reacted to “pressure that didn’t exist” when the Giants beat the New England Patriots back in Week 9. Brady will have to deal with real pressure Sunday in Super Bowl XLVI.

Although most teams rotate three pass rushers between two positions in passing situations, Brady will see situations when he faces all three of New York’s dangerous trio of defensive ends on the same play. Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora had played only one game together before meeting the Patriots in Week 9.

As they have spent more time on the field together, they have become a more dangerous puzzle for opposing quarterbacks to solve. Here is a look at what this group can do:

The Giants rely on their front four to get after opposing quarterbacks. They sent four or fewer pass rushers on 69.1 percent of designed pass plays through Week 16 but ramped that number up even more when Umenyiora returned from injury. From Umenyiora’s Week 17 return through the NFC Championship Game, the Giants sent four or fewer pass rushers on 82.1 percent of opponent dropbacks. No team had more sacks than the Giants (15) during that time. The three defensive ends were on the field together for 10 of those.

Pierre-Paul, Tuck and Umenyiora play together exclusively in small substitution packages (5 or more defensive backs). Small sub packages league-wide averaged a sack once every 15.6 dropbacks through conference championship weekend. The Giants are doing their part to bring that number down, sacking opponents once every 8.5 dropbacks when all three ends are on the field together (15 sacks in 128 designed pass plays).

This trio can also limit opposing quarterbacks when they have time to get off a throw. The chart to the right compares small sub packages with Pierre-Paul, Tuck and Umenyiora on the field to the league average.

The Giants cannot rely on phantom pressure to slow Brady on Sunday. If the Patriots find themselves in obvious passing situations early, look for the three defensive ends to create havoc in the New England backfield.

We invited those who have friended us on the Stats & Information Facebook page to send us some statistically-oriented questions related to the Super Bowl.

Here are a few that we were able to answer:

Christopher Gachko asks: “Statistically, who had the most surprising performance in Super Bowl history (ie: reg season/career average stats vs. performance in Super Bowl).”

The most statistically-surprising Super Bowl performance may belong to Timmy Smith of the 1987 Washington Redskins.

Smith rushed for a Super Bowl record 204 yards and two touchdowns in Super Bowl XXII against the Denver Broncos. Smith played just 17 regular season games in his career, amassing 602 yards and just three touchdowns. The Super Bowl was only the seventh game of his NFL career.

At the wide receiver position, the biggest statistical surprise may have been in Super Bowl I, when Max McGee of the 1966 Green Bay Packers had seven catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns in a 35-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

McGee had only four catches that season, not posting more than one in any game. He hadn’t had a game with that many receiving yards since November 1964.

Also of note in one regard is New England Patriots wide receiver Deion Branch, who had 10 catches in Super Bowl XXXVII and 11 his MVP winning performance in Super Bowl XXXIX. Though Branch has had many fine games in his NFL career, he’s only had one other game with at least 10 catches.

The quarterback whose Super Bowl performance was the furthest out of line with everything else he did in his postseason career is Doug Williams, also of the 1987 Redskins. Williams completed 18-of-29 passes for 340 yards and four touchdowns.

In his six other playoff appearances, Williams completed just 36 percent of his passes, with five touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

On the negative side, Oakland Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon threw a record five interceptions in Super Bowl XXXVII against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite doing so just once in his career. The games came over 12 years apart.

Wade Fuller asks: “Is there any relationship between the distance a team's home stadium is from the location of the Super Bowl and the winner of the game?”

The last six champions have traveled shorter distances to the Super Bowl than the teams they beat.

Historically, there has been a slight edge for the teams who travel a shorter distance, with those teams going 25-20 in the 45 Super Bowls.

The New York Giants traveled roughly 150 fewer miles to Indianapolis than the New England Patriots.

Mike Cook asks: “A post on which regular season stats correlate most strongly with Super Bowl outcome would be interesting. In other words, which is the most useful predictive stat to use for comparing the two teams: total yards, points allowed, yards per passing attempt, turnover margin, etc.”

Defense wins championships and for the most part that has been true. From 1966 to 2005, only two Super Bowl champions (1976 Oakland Raiders, 1983 Los Angeles Raiders) finished outside of the 10 in points allowed.

However, three of the last five champions finished outside the top 10 (2006 Colts, 2007 Giants and 2009 Saints), and this year’s champion will too. The Patriots ranked 15th while the Giants ranked 25th.

John McTigue contributed research to this post

You can bet New York Giants fans around the country will bring plenty of chips to Super Bowl parties this year, but don’t be surprised if they are counting on someone else to provide some salsa.

The sparkplug of one of the NFL’s most talented wide receiving corps, Victor Cruz, has had New York fans shaking their hips with every touchdown this season.

Cruz finished the regular season as the Giants’ single-season record holder with 1,536 receiving yards and led the team with nine touchdown receptions, followed by a celebration salsa dance. As we take a closer look at his sophomore success, it's easy to see why he could be bringing his moves to Super Bowl XLVI.

Among tight ends and wide receivers, Cruz finished with the third-most yards after the catch during the regular season, trailing only Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, who will both suit up for the New England Patriots next Sunday.

Cruz’s moves aren’t only useful on the dance floor, but he’s also hard to tackle. Cruz averaged 2.99 yards after contact per reception this year, the best in the NFL among wide receivers with at least 50 receptions.

The X factor to Super Bowl XLVI might not be who matches up with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham near the edge, but how the Patriots choose to cover Cruz in the slot.

No defense allowed more touchdowns with at least three wide receivers on the field than the Patriots during the regular season and playoffs combined. Meanwhile, no team has run more plays, completed more passes and thrown more touchdowns with at least three wide receivers on the field than the Giants this postseason.

The Patriots could call on wide receiver Julian Edelman to again pull double duty as the nickel cover man on Super Sunday. Cruz caught 76.8 percent of his receptions in the regular and postseason after lining up in the slot before the snap while Edelman has filled in as the slot cornerback on 80.3 percent of his defensive plays.

Look for Cruz to take Edelman to the outside where the Giants wideout is king. No qualified player in the NFL averaged more yards per reception on passes thrown outside the painted field numbers this regular and postseason.

Seven of Cruz’s nine touchdowns this season have come on sideline passes, celebrated with extra Latin flavor to honor the dancing lessons given to him as a young man by his grandmother.

While Giants’ fans will not get to vote for Cruz on “Dancing with the Stars” after he recently turned down an invitation for the show, they will certainly hope to see him dancing on the field in Indy during Super Bowl XLVI.

For all the hype about Tom Brady and Eli Manning leading potent offenses into Super Bowl XLVI next Sunday, their Week 9 matchup was a 10-3 advantage for the New York Giants entering the fourth quarter as Brady had pushed the New England Patriots into the red zone. The stage was set for a whirlwind 31-point finish that highlighted season-long trends for both teams.

What helped the Giants win, 24-20, ending New England’s 20-game regular-season home winning streak? And what can both teams take away from the game?

What Happened:
• On the second play of the fourth quarter, Brady hit Aaron Hernandez on a five-yard TD pass. No team targets tight ends like the Patriots, particularly in the red zone. Only the Detroit Lions’ tight ends had as many targets (37) as the Patriots had catches (36) in the red zone, and Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski accounted for 22 red zone touchdowns, twice as many as any other TE tandem.

• After a Giants punt and a Patriots field goal, New York let the Patriots defense do the work on its next drive. On first down at his 25, Manning took a shot down the sideline and cornerback Kyle Arrington was flagged for interference. This season, New England was called for five interference penalties of at least 20 yards, tied for most in the league. That set up a 10-yard TD pass to Mario Manningham out of a three wide receiver set. The Giants were without Hakeem Nicks that day, a big void for one of the most productive three-plus WR offenses.

• The Patriots drove 64 yards and retook the lead on a pass to Gronkowski, and Manning got the ball back on his 20 with 1:36 to go. Nine plays later (including another deep interference penalty), Manning hit Jake Ballard in the end zone. The drive took 1:21. Quick strikes were a Giants hallmark. They had 17 touchdown drives this season that took less than two minutes.

What to take away:
• Both quarterbacks are effective against the blitz. In Week 9, both of Manning’s touchdowns came against at least six rushers. This season, defenses sent extra pressure at Manning more often than any other quarterback, and he excelled. His 18 touchdowns against five or more rushers led the league. As for Brady, no quarterback posted a better TD-Int differential than his +15 against extra rushers. Pressuring them is important, but both offensive lines ranked in the top eight in sack percentage.

• While the Giants will have to figure out a way to defend Hernandez and Gronkowski, who were held scoreless in only four games, the Patriots’ challenge will be in dealing with Nicks, Manningham and Victor Cruz. They have combined for 4,134 receiving yards, including in the playoffs, tops in the NFL. The Giants are at their best with three wide receivers, and the Patriots struggled with extra defensive backs on the field.

• Manning under or overthrew on nine throws, his second-highest total this season. Missing as many a second time around is unlikely, particularly with Nicks back in the lineup. Getting Nicks back will help Manning improve on his 7-of-20 performance in Week 9 with three or more WR on the field. Even in victory, there were plenty of opportunities left on the field for the Giants.

Tom Brady had a historically-good 2011 season, finishing in the top five in every major passing category, including yards, completions, completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns. But as good as the New England Patriots' offense was, it was very predictable as to whom would be on the field, and for good reason.

The Patriots have utilized the same five-man skill-position player combination on 18.2 percent of their offensive snaps, a higher rate than any other playoff team. The personnel combo, consisting of receivers Wes Welker and Deion Branch, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and running back Danny Woodhead, presents an array of matchup issues for opposing defenses.

Dissecting this a bit further shows the Patriots had Welker, Branch, Gronkowski and Hernandez on the field at the same time for 45.2 percent of all of their offensive snaps this season.

Tom Brady thrives in two-receiver, two-tight end, one-back sets (nicknamed "Tiger" packages in the NFL), and the Patriots take advantage by throwing the ball more than any other team in such formations.

In the regular season Brady had 382 pass attempts out of two-WR, two-TE, one-RB sets; Philip Rivers had the second-most with 223. And due to the enormous number of opportunities, Brady dominated every major passing category.

Opposing defenses have countered New England's Tiger packages with five or more defensive backs 85.1 percent of the time, instead of using their base defenses to combat the heavier personnel.

Gronkowski and Hernandez present formidable receiving threats, so despite the extra pass coverage personnel, Brady posted a 77.7 QBR and 41.1 Points Above Average (the number of points the QB accounted for above how many the league's average QB would be expected to score). In a much smaller sample size (only 71 plays), when defenses kept their base 3-4 or 4-3 alignments on the field Brady's QBR was 12.6 points lower and he recorded only a 3.5 PAA.

This personnel matchup favors the Patriots (statistically), as the New York Giants allowed a league-worst 86.7 QBR to opposing quarterbacks in two-receiver, two-tight end, one-back sets this season. In the New York's Week 9 victory at Foxboro, the Giants held Tom Brady to a 56.3 QBR, his third-lowest mark of the season. But when Brady had his 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB personnel on the field, his QBR was 19.9 points higher.

For the second time in five seasons, the New England Patriots and New York Giants enter the Super Bowl following a familiar script.

The Patriots once again show up on the big stage boasting a historically proficient offense. While not quite the juggernaut of the 2007 team that set the NFL single-season scoring record, the 2011 version put up 513 points, tied with the 1984 Dolphins and 1961 Oilers for the 10th-most in NFL history (never mind that the ’61 Oilers did it in only 14 games).

For the Giants, the path to Indianapolis was paved much in the same way as its path to Glendale, AZ five seasons ago: winning on the road. Dating to 2007, the Giants have won six straight playoff games away from home which is the longest such streak in NFL history.

Although both teams reached the Super Bowl in similar fashions, what can we expect from the actual meeting itself? In other words: what's changed?

One key difference is how the Patriots deploy their personnel on offense, specifically with regards to Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This past season the Patriots deployed two tight ends on 81 percent of their plays, easily the highest percentage of any team in the NFL.

In Super Bowl XLII, the Patriots used two tight ends on just a third of their 69 plays. Of their 75 offensive plays against the Giants in their Week 9 meeting this season, the Patriots used two tight ends on 84 percent and did not run a single play with no tight end (see chart).
Another change to look for is how Bill Belichick goes after Eli Manning. Belichick was aggressive in Super Bowl XLII, sending five or more pass rushers on 18 of Manning’s 37 dropbacks (48.6 percent), including the game-winning touchdown to Plaxico Burress.

Since then there has been a stark change in philosophy, as the Patriots have used such pressure 30.0 percent of the time and have not exceeded 46.0 percent in any game over the last two seasons. The Patriots blitzed just 27.6 percent of the time when the teams met in Week 9.

Perhaps the lack of blitzing will pay off against Eli Manning, who has a plus-36 touchdown-to-interception differential since Super Bowl XLII against five or more pass rushers (plus-16 vs four or fewer).

While the Patriots have changed their approach to Manning, don’t expect the Giants to switch things up against Tom Brady. The Giants have been relying heavily on their four-man rush, using such pressure 82 percent of the time in the postseason. In his last two meetings against the Giants, Brady put up similar numbers against the standard rush.

Watch out for how the Patriots attack that four-man rush. When Brady was under center in 2007, the Patriots dropped back to pass (including sacks and scrambles) 61 percent of the time. This season, the Patriots called passes 60 percent of the time with Brady under center.

The Patriots were pass-heavy in both meetings against the Giants in 2007 and Week 9 this season despite the three games being decided by a combined 10 points. In their last three meetings, the Patriots ran most often in the Week 17 win in 2007. In Super Bowl XLII, the Patriots dropped back to pass 77 percent of the time, the third-highest rate with Brady since the start of 2007.

On the surface it may appear Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady on Sunday at Foxboro, but a deeper look shows this simply is not true.

Surface:
Joe Flacco: 22-36, 306 yards, 2 TD, INT, 95.4 NFL passer rating
Tom Brady: 22-36, 239 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 57.5 NFL passer rating

Deeper:
Sacks are a big thing missing from the common stats for quarterbacks. Flacco took three sacks, all on third down, twice with blitzers coming, which is when a quarterback needs to make a quick read and throw. Brady was sacked once. And it happened when only four rushers were coming, which is more on his offensive line.

Surface:
Joe Flacco: 1 INT
Tom Brady: 2 INT

Deeper:
There are interceptions that hurt and there are interceptions that really hurt. Flacco’s pick came when down three, midway through the fourth quarter, when the Baltimore Ravens were in Patriot territory and led to the New England Patriots having the ball at midfield. Brady’s first pick was early in the game when up three and left the Ravens at their own 30. His second one was a 50 yard heave into the endzone that got tipped and returned to the Ravens’ own 38.

Flacco threw his lone pick down three, midway through the 4th quarter. From an expected points view this play cost the Ravens 4.3 points, the second-worst interception of the playoffs. From a win probability standpoint this sent Baltimore’s win probability from 43.2% to 23.0%, the second biggest swing on an interception this postseason. At the time of the interception, Flacco’s QBR was 79.4. After the pick it fell to 55.4.

After dividing blame, Flacco’s one inteception cost his team more than Brady’s two combined.

Along the same lines, Flacco was the much more volatile quarterback. After dividing the appropriate amount of QB credit for each play in the game, Joe Flacco had five of the six worst QB plays in the game AND five of the six best QB plays.

Another important point to make is that Flacco’s QBR did go up on the final drive. If Baltimore would have converted the last drive for a touchdown Flacco likely would have had a better QBR than Brady. Unfortunately for Ravens fans, they didn’t, and Flacco finished behind Brady literally and figuratively.

Overall, 24 of Brady’s 45 action plays increased the Patriots chance of scoring as he finished with a 66.5 Total QBR. For Flacco, 23 of his 46 action plays increased the Ravens chance of scoring as he finished with a 45.6 Total QBR. A slight difference to be sure, but it was Brady who was slightly better than Flacco on Sunday.