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Mavericks offense not in early season form

The 4-Point Play looks at the four analytics-based storylines that will make you smarter when watching Wednesday’s game between the Orlando Magic (27th in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index) and the Dallas Mavericks (seventh in BPI). Our BPI gives the Mavericks an 89 percent chance of winning (8:00 p.m., ESPN):

1. The Mavericks’ most likely first-round opponents are the Portland Trail Blazers (30 percent), Memphis Grizzlies (28 percent) and Houston Rockets (21 percent).

2. The Mavericks’ offensive efficiency has dropped significantly during the season. They averaged 115 points per 100 possessions during the first 10 games of the season but have averaged only 103 points per 100 possessions during the last 10 games. Much of that can be traced to an increase in mid-range shooting and a drop in offensive rebounding.

3. The Magic are 5.5 points per 100 possessions better when Elfrid Payton is on the court (four on offense, 1.5 on defense).

4. The Magic currently have a nine percent chance of having the first pick in the draft and a 57 percent chance of having a pick in the top five.