Stats & Info: Paul Janish

When the improbable becomes probable

August, 26, 2010
In the Colorado Rockies' come-from-way-behind 12-10 victory Wednesday afternoon against the Atlanta Braves, their win probability (based on teams throughout history in similar situations) dipped as low as 1.2 percent in the fourth inning:

• The Rockies trailed 3-0 after the top of the first, meaning their win probability was 28.9 percent even before they came to bat.

• After the top of the second, the Rockies trailed 7-0 - a win probability of 7.0 percent.

• When Omar Infante homered in the third inning to give the Braves a 10-1 lead, the Rockies' win probability fell to 2.2 percent.

• With the score still 10-1, Brian McCann doubled leading off the top of the fourth, and the Rockies' win probability dipped to its lowest point at 1.2 percent.

• Trailing 10-6 in the sixth inning, the Rockies' win probability sat at just 15.5 percent until a Ryan Spilborghs two-run double increased it to 30.8 percent, cutting the score to 10-8.

• The Rockies' win probability did not get above 30.8 percent until the eighth inning, when Carlos Gonzalez’s two-run single tied the game at 10. The Rockies win probability jumped all the way from 24.9 percent to 61.2 percent with the hit.

• When Troy Tulowitzki followed with the go-ahead single to make it 11-10, the Rockies' win probability went up to 84.9 percent, and increased to 93.1 percent with Todd Helton’s RBI single providing the final run.

• The Rockies' win probability did not dip below 90 percent from that time forward as they closed out the Braves in the 9th.

The Cincinnati Reds' 12-11 victory over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday featured several win probability swings:

• The Reds scored four runs in top of the first inning and had a win probability of 82.4 percent before the Giants even came to bat.

• After the Reds scored four more runs in the third inning to take an 8-1 lead, their win probability stood at 96.4 percent.

• When Homer Bailey singled to give Cincinnati a 10-1 lead in the fifth inning, the Reds' win probability was all the way up to 99.5 percent, its highest point until the game was over.

• The Giants cut the lead to 10-5 after six innings, but the Reds' win probability was still high at 97.4 percent.

• Even when Juan Uribe homered in the eighth to make it 10-8, the Reds still had a win probability of 85.2 percent.

• The biggest win probability jump of the game occurred on Andres Torres’ eighth-inning double, which tied the game at 10 and knocked the Reds’ win probability from 65.3 percent down to 26.2 percent.

• When Aubrey Huff’s sacrifice fly in the eighth gave the Giants an 11-10 lead, the Reds' win probability fell to 14.6 percent.

• The Reds entered the 9th inning trailing 11-10. After Ryan Hanigan flied out leading off the top of the inning, the Reds' win probability was at its lowest point at just 8.3 percent.

• After Drew Stubbs reached second base on an error, Paul Janish’s game-tying single in the 9th took the Reds' win probability from 21.9 percent up to 56.1 percent, the third-biggest jump of the game.

• The Reds took a 12-11 lead in the 12th inning on a Joey Votto single, which brought the Reds win probability from 48.1 to 84.9 percent, the second-largest win probability movement of the game.

• Torres came to bat in the ninth inning with runners on first and third and two out, with the Giants trailing 12-11. The Reds’ win probability was at 80.9 percent at this juncture. Torres grounded out to end the game, bringing the Reds’ win probability to 100 percent.
Forget about Shark Week, it's blowout week in baseball. We've now had an MLB game decided by 10+ runs for 6 straight days. The Elias Sports Bureau tells us that the last time this happened was from August 22-27, 2007.

Friday: Rockies 17, Cubs 2
Saturday: Cardinals 11, Pirates 1
Sunday: Diamondbacks 14, Mets 1
Monday: Brewers 18, Cubs 1
Tuesday: Astros 18, Cardinals 4; Giants 10, Rockies 0; White Sox 12, Tigers 2
Wednesday: Cubs 15, Brewers 3

Here are some more recaps from today's afternoon action on the diamond.

Rockies 6, Giants 1

Ubaldo Jimenez tied a Rockies' franchise record with his major-league leading 17th win. He improves to 8-0 at home, and is 13-1 this season following a Colorado loss. Carlos Gonzalez (22, 23) had hit first career multi-HR game, and has six HR in his last seven games. Troy Tulowitzki added his 10th HR of the season, and first since coming off the DL. The Rockies have won 5 of 6 following their 8-game losing streak. The loss snaps a 4-game win streak for the Giants, who allowed as many runs as they had in the previous 4 games combined. Madison Bumgarner lasted only 4 innings, the shortest outing of his career.

Andres Torres (SF): 0-for-4, 4 K
•  First Giants player this season to record a game of 4+ strikeouts and no hits.
•  First since Fred Lewis on April 15, 2009.
•  Only one Giant has done it twice since 2000 - Aaron Rowand.
•  There are now only three teams in the MLB who have not had a player with 4+ strikeouts and no hits in a game this season: White Sox, Indians, Tigers.

Cubs 15, Brewers 3
Cubs score a season-high 15 runs and snap their season-worst 7-game losing streak. It is the most runs they have scored since August 14 of last season. Aramis Ramirez hits his second career pinch-hit HR (1st since 2002 with PIT). Starlin Castro has first career four-hit game while Geovany Soto gets his 3rd career 5-RBI game. Ryan Dempster improves to 14-3 career vs the Brewers.

Reds 9, Pirates 4
The Reds break game open with 6-run 7th inning including RBI doubles by Joey Votto and Jonny Gomes, an RBI triple by Laynce Nix and a 3-run HR by Paul Janish. It is the 15th time Cincinnati scores at least 9 runs this season. All four Pittsburgh runs were scored on home runs. Johnny Cueto allows 1 run and 3 hits in 6 innings to improve to 9-2 career vs the Pirates and 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA in his last 8 starts. Jeff Karstens falls to 0-4 career vs Reds and is 0-5 in his last 8 starts.

Yankees 5, Blue Jays 1

Alex Rodriguez becomes the 7th player to hit 600 career HR when he hit a 2-0 fastball off Shaun Marcum in the first inning to center field. Rodriguez is the youngest to reach 600 HR (35 years, 8 days). Rodriguez snapped a streak of 46 at-bats since his last homer, the longest homerless streak ever between home run numbers 599 and 600. The homer came on the 3-year anniversary of his 500th HR, which was also in the first inning and also at Yankee Stadium and also in a game started by Phil Hughes. Derek Jeter (4-4, two doubles) has his 35th career 4-hit game, passing Joe DiMaggio and Bernie Williams for 4th-most 4-hit games by a Yankee in the live-ball era (since 1920). The Yankees snap their 3-game losing streak, which matched their longest of the season.

A's 4, Royals 3
Brett Anderson picks up his first win since May 29 and goes 7 innings, his longest outing of the season. After giving up 2 runs in the first, A's pitchers held the Royals to 1 run on 3 hits the rest of the way. Michael Wuertz struck out the side in the 9th to notch his 4th save, tying a career-high. The A's have won 11 of their last 14 against the Royals. The Royals have lost 8 of their last 10 on the road. Jose Guillen (0-4) falls to 3-41 (.073) in his last 11 games. Wuertz struck out the side in the 9th to notch his 4th save, tying a career-high.