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For the 36th time in baseball history and first since 2002, a Game 7 is needed to decide the World Series, this time between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers. If recent history is any indication, start popping the corks in St. Louis. Since 1980, home teams are 8-0 in World Series Game 7s (prior to 1980, home teams were 10-17).

Furthermore, of the last nine World Series to go seven games, eight were won by the team that won Game 6. The only team since 1979 to lose Game 7 after winning Game 6 was the Cleveland Indians against the Florida Marlins in 1997.

Playing in a Game 7 is nothing new for the Cardinals. In fact, they are making their 15th appearance in a postseason winner-take-all Game 7, the most all-time. And they’ve had quite a bit of success, winning 10 postseason Game 7s, also the most all-time.

St. Louis leads all franchises with seven Game 7 wins in World Series action, but has lost three of its last four. On the other side, Texas is making its first appearance in a Game 7 of any series in franchise history.

Pitching Matchup
Matt Harrison will make his second World Series start for Texas. Harrison took the loss in Game 3 after allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits in 3 2/3 innings. Harrison will try to be the first starting pitcher who lost a game earlier in the series to win Game 7 of a World Series since Frank Viola (1987 Minnesota Twins).

It was reported Friday that the Cardinals will start Chris Carpenter, and that should make St. Louis fans breathe a sigh of relief. Carpenter is 8-2 in his postseason career, including 3-0 this season. In three career World Series starts, he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and has allowed just four earned runs in 13 innings against the Rangers this series.

Carpenter has pitched on three-days rest just once and it was earlier this postseason in Game 2 of the NLDS at Philadelphia.

According to Elias, Carpenter will be the ninth pitcher to start two winner-take-all games in one postseason.

The others were Blue Moon Odom (1972 Oakland Athletics), Pete Vuckovich (1982 Milwaukee Brewers), Bret Saberhagen (1985 Kansas City Royals), John Smoltz (1991 Atlanta Braves), Jaret Wright (1997 Indians), Curt Schilling (2001 Arizona Diamondbacks), Roger Clemens (2001 New York Yankees), Kerry Wood (2003 Chicago Cubs) and Pedro Martinez (2003 Boston Red Sox). No pitcher has ever won two winner-take-all games in one postseason, no matter if he started the game or not.

Stat of the Game
Elias tells us that Tony La Russa needs a win in Game 7 to avoid becoming the first manager to lose the clinching game of four World Series on his home field. In 1988, the Athletics lost in five games to the Los Angeles Dodgers, with Game Five at the Oakland Coliseum; in 1990, the Athletics were swept by the Cincinnati Reds, with Game Four in Oakland; in 2004, the Cardinals lost all four games to the Red Sox, with Game Four at Busch Stadium.

The third, and final, winner-take-all game of the 2011 LDS takes place in the City of Brotherly Love as the Philadelphia Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are 8-5 against the Phillies this season, including playoffs, and have won four of the six meetings in Philadelphia.

Divisional Series History
The Cardinals are 10-5 all-time in winner-take-all games. Their most recent was a 3-1 win over the New York Mets in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, won on Yadier Molina ninth-inning home run. St. Louis is 4-4 all-time in winner-take-all games on the road.

The Phillies have only played two winner-take-all games. They beat the Houston Astros 8-7 in Houston in Game 5 of the 1980 NLCS, winning on a hit in the 10th inning by Garry Maddox. They also lost to the Montreal Expos 3-0 at home in Game 5 of the 1981 LDS. Steve Rogers pitched a six-hit shutout to beat them.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Philadelphia's 13 consecutive playoff series that did not go the distance was the longest such streak in major league history. The previous record was held by the Oakland Athletics, who went 12 consecutive series without playing a decisive game, from 1974 to 1992.

On the Mound
Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay lead the Cardinals and Phillies, respectively, in this game. Since the Cy Young Award was introduced in 1956, this is the third winner-take-all playoff game in which previous Cy Young winners faced off. The others were Pedro Martinez against Roger Clemens in the 2003 ALCS and Pedro Martinez against Barry Zito in the 2003 ALDS.

Carpenter went only three innings in his Game 2 start (throwing 64 pitches), his shortest postseason start of his career. The Cardinals won that game, improving Carpenter’s teams to 8-2 in his 10 career postseason starts. In his last four road postseason starts, Carpenter is 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA.

Halladay is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two career NLDS starts, including his no-hitter in the 2010 NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds. Despite the success in this round, Halladay has allowed seven earned runs in 16.0 innings in his last two starts against the Cardinals.


Players to Watch
Albert Pujols could be playing his final game in a Cardinal uniform, as he becomes a free agent at season’s end. Pujols ranks as the all-time leader in home runs and RBI for players within their first 11 major-league seasons. In Cardinals history, he ranks second or third in just about every major statistical category, trailing either Stan Musial or Mark McGwire.

Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley have been driving the Phillies offensive bus this series. The two have a combined .517 batting average (15-for-29) with a 1.381 OPS while hitting seven of the teams 10 extra-base hits. The rest of the Phillies are hitting .181 with a .474 OPS.

Rollins, specifically, has been killing the ball. His performance against non-fastballs this postseason, although a small sample size, has been solid (5-for-8 with a double). And he’s not wasting any time at the plate – if he gets a pitch to hit, he’s taking his cuts.

Justin Verlander goes for his 21st win on Friday, as the Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox. Presuming he starts every fifth day, mark Verlander down for six more starts in 2011. That puts some notable milestones within his grasp.

Could Verlander be the first pitcher in 21 years to win 25 games in a season? In 1990, Bob Welch went 27-6 for the A’s on his way to the Cy Young Award. Since then, two pitchers reached 24 wins (John Smoltz in 1996 and Randy Johnson in 2002), but no one made it to a quarter-century. In fact, only two AL pitchers have even reached 23 wins (Pedro Martinez in 1999 and Barry Zito in 2003).

If he reaches 25 wins, Verlander would be just the sixth pitcher to do so since the designated hitter arrived in 1973. In the past 30 years, Welch’s season stands alone.

On Friday, Verlander could be the first Tigers pitcher to reach 21 wins since Jack Morris in 1985. You have to go back to Mickey Lolich in 1971 to find their last 25-game winner.

With 218 strikeouts, Verlander also has a shot at a rare 25-win, 250-strikeout season. In the past 65 seasons, only four pitchers have pulled that off: Steve Carlton (1972), Lolich (1971), Denny McLain (1968) and Sandy Koufax (three times).

Verlander has put himself in this position thanks to wins in each of his past eight starts. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Brandon Webb in 2008 was the last pitcher to win nine straight, and the last Tigers pitcher to do so was McLain in 1968.

With these lofty numbers potentially looming, MVP buzz now accompanies each start. Appearing only every fifth day, starting pitchers are debatable MVP candidates. However, in terms of value to his team, it’s hard to ignore what Verlander has done.

Consider the following from Elias: Verlander is 14-3 in games following a Detroit loss. In the past 30 years, only two pitchers have earned 15 victories following a team loss in a single season: Felix Hernandez (15 in 2009) and Roger Clemens (15 in 1992).

Verlander has already reached the historical minimum win total for a starter to win the award. In 1943, Spud Chandler won 20 games on his way to the MVP. The eight starters to win it since have all won at least 22 games.

Even with more wins, Verlander’s ERA might not be low enough. Four of the last five starting pitchers to win an MVP finished with an ERA below 2.00. The exception was Roger Clemens (24-4, 2.48 ERA) for the 1986 Red Sox.

If 2011 numbers are any indication, the Boston Red Sox have the right pitcher on the mound to even the series with the New York Yankees on Wednesday (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET).

In his four starts against the Yankees this season, Josh Beckett is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA. In the past 35 years, only three pitchers have posted an ERA of 1.00 or lower against the Yankees with at least 25 innings: Felix Hernandez (0.35 in 2010), Chuck Finley (0.57 in 1996) and Mike Caldwell (0.99 in 1978).

The key to Beckett’s success? The heart of the Yankees' order -- the 3-4-5-6 hitters -- are a combined 2-for-32 (.063) with 15 strikeouts. The only two hits belong to Robinson Cano (2-for-9).

That level of dominance was hard to envision after Beckett’s Bronx struggles in 2010, when he posted a 10.04 ERA against the Yankees. That was the fifth-highest ERA against the Yankees in the past 50 seasons (minimum four starts).

Last season, left-handed batters on the Yankees hit .354 with eight home runs against Beckett. This season, he has been able to neutralize them: a .156 batting average and one home run.

Beckett will be going for his fourth win against New York this season, a rare feat among Red Sox pitchers. Al Nipper went 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA against the Yankees in 1987, a season in which he won only seven other games. No Red Sox pitcher has won four against New York since, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

According to Elias, only three pitchers since 1995 have four wins against the Yankees in a season: Brett Cecil (4–0 in 2010), Roy Halladay (5–1 in 2008) and Chuck Finley (4–0 in 1996).

On the last day of August, Beckett looks for a positive end to a relatively shaky month. In five starts, he’s allowed seven home runs. Compare that to just nine in his first 20 starts. For his career, August is the only month in which Beckett has an ERA (4.53) over 4.00 or a record below .500 (18-20).

Beckett also looks to continue an impressive streak at home. In each of his first 11 starts at Fenway, he’s held the opponent to three runs or fewer. In the live ball era (since 1920), the Red Sox have had only two longer such streaks to start a season: Roger Clemens (15 in 1990) and Pedro Martinez (13 in 2000).

The teams with the most wins in the majors start a three-game series tonight in Philadelphia as the Phillies (55 wins) and Braves (53) square off.

The red-hot Braves, who have won four straight and nine of their last 10, send Brandon Beachy to the mound, while the Phils (winners of seven of their last 10) counter with Roy Halladay. Halladay is 6-0 with a 2.69 ERA in his last nine starts and the Phillies have won each of them.

Halladay is 11-3 on the season, the seventh straight campaign that he has won at least 10 games by the break. Only three times since 1975 has a Phillies starter had 12+ wins before the break (Curt Schilling in 1999 and Steve Carlton in 1977 & 1980).

Beachy is winless in four starts against the Phillies, going 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA including his major league debut last Sept. 20 in Philly. The last time he faced them (May 13) he had to leave after two innings with a strained oblique. However, since returning from the DL, Beachy is 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three starts.

The Braves have won the last two series against the Phillies, taking two of three in each.

In other games Friday:

Josh Beckett and the Red Sox host the Orioles. From the Elias Sports Bureau: Beckett has permitted fewer hits than innings pitched in each of his last 11 starts, the longest single-season streak of that sort by a Red Sox pitcher since Pedro Martinez had an 11-game streak in the 2000 season. The last Red Sox pitcher with a longer streak of that kind was Carl Mays: 12 straight starts allowing fewer hits than innings, in 1918.

Also from Elias: Minnesota's Joe Mauer has a hit in each of his last six at-bats against White Sox starter Gavin Floyd. The longest current streak of consecutive hits by one active major-leaguer against another is eight, by Andruw Jones against Jason Marquis.

Roy Halladay won the National League Cy Young Award Tuesday, receiving all 32 first-place votes, the first time he’s won in the NL and the second Cy Young he’s won in his career. He is the fifth pitcher ever to win the award in both leagues, joining Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Hall of Famer Gaylord Perry.

He’s the fourth Philadelphia Phillies pitcher to win the award and the first since reliever Steve Bedrosian won it in 1987. After winning six times in the 16 seasons from 1972-1987, this is the first time in 23 years that a Phillies pitcher won the award.

Halladay went 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA, with 219 strikeouts and just 30 walks in 250 ⅔ innings. He’s just the fourth National League pitcher since 1994 to throw at least 250 innings with an ERA of 2.50 or below, joining Johnson, Greg Maddux and Kevin Brown. Halladay led the league in wins, complete games, shutouts, innings pitched and K/BB ratio. He was second in the league in strikeouts and WHIP (1.04), and third in ERA, and he threw the 20th perfect game in major league history when he beat the Florida Marlins on May 29.

The superior start is a statistic created by Stats & Information designed as an enhanced version of the quality start. For each start a pitcher is assigned a probability he gave his team of winning based on his innings pitched and earned runs -- the same statistics used to determine a quality start.

A superior start is deemed to be any start where the pitcher gave his team at least a 75 percent chance to win. The four pitchers who tied for the lead finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting.

Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals finished second, his second top-three finish in the last three seasons. Wainwright went 20-11 with a career-low 2.42 ERA and a career-high 213 strikeouts in 230 ⅓ innings pitched. He won 20 games for the first time in his career and had five complete games, after throwing three combined in his career entering this season.

xWIN is another statistic created by Stats & Information that measures how many wins a pitchers team should get based on his combination of innings pitched and earned runs allowed in each start. It eliminates the adverse effect of a having a bad offense on a pitcher's win total. Wainwright barely outpaced Halladay to lead the National League this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez finished third after having one of the best seasons in Colorado Rockies history. He went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 214 strikeouts in 221 ⅔ innings. That’s the second-best ERA by a starting pitcher in Rockies history and his 214 strikeouts set the all-time franchise mark.

Jimenez was counting on the fact that the NL Cy Young winner had fewer than 20 wins for four straight seasons before this one. With Halladay’s win, just twice in the last eight years has the winner registered 20 wins or more.

The season is obviously not yet over, but after Friday's start Adam Wainwright has 20 wins, 213 strikeouts and a 2.42 ERA. Over the last 20 seasons, there have been six other seasons in which a pitcher has compiled at least 20 wins and 200 K with an ERA under 2.50. Randy Johnson (x3), Pedro Martinez (x2) and Roger Clemens (x1) account for each of those six seasons. Four of those seasons resulted in a Cy Young Award and the other two were both runner-up finishes. One of those runner-ups can essentially be thrown out since that was merely Randy Johnson losing out to Roger Clemens in a season in which they both met the stated criteria.


Adam Wainwright may not be playing on a team in playoff contention (like Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tim Hudson), but he is certainly in contention for the NL Cy Young Award. It should be noted that Roy Halladay (20 wins, 213 K, 2.53 ERA) is very close to joining Wainwright in reaching each of the standards. If Wainwright and Halladay each pull this off, it would be the first time in over 40 years that multiple NL pitchers did this. It last happened in 1969, when five NL pitchers did it (Larry Dierker, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Tom Seaver, and Bill Singer). Seaver won the NL Cy Young Award that season.

Another factor boding in Wainwright's favor is ESPN.com's Player Rater, which historically correlates very strongly with the final Cy Young order of finish. Not surprisingly (considering his statistics), it has Wainwright as the National League's top starter this season (followed closely by Halladay).

A couple of other quick notes on Wainwright:

He's the third pitcher in Cardinals history to post 20 wins and 200 strikeouts in a single season. Bob Gibson did it five times from 1965 to 1970 and Chris Carpenter did it in 2005.

Wainwright saved the clinching game of the 2006 World Series. The only other player in major league history to have a 20-win season and a save in a World Series-clinching game is Dennis Eckersley who won 20 games in 1978 with the Boston Red Sox and saved the World Series clincher in 1989 with the Oakland Athletics.

Today’s Trivia: It was 20 years ago today that Bobby Thigpen broke the single-season saves record by picking up number 47 (he finished with 57). Who held the record before Thigpen?

Quick Hits: The Minnesota Twins had 15 hits on Thursday (all singles, by the way), but Denard Span went 0-for-6. It’s not the first time Span has watched a hit parade from the sidewalk. On May 22, the Twins had 13 hits, but Span went 0-for-7. Then on August 4, he was hitless in six at-bats despite 10 hits for the Twins. Span is the only player in the majors with three games of no hits in at least six at-bats this season. In that spirit, let’s take a look at the most improbable oh-fers this season.

• The Oakland Athletics Chris Carter had a forgettable 0-for-19 start to his career before being sent down in August. Now on the minor-league disabled list, that oh-fer might stick. It’s not all bad news though. The last AL player to finish a season hitless in 19 or more at-bats was David Ortiz in 1999. A September call-up, Big Papi went 0-for-20 for the Twins, striking out 12 times.

• Carter’s 0-for-August was the worst in that month since Jason LaRue went 0-for-24 in 2007. According to STATS LLC, the worst oh-fer in any month over the last 35 years belongs to Mark Smith. In 1998 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Smith went 0-for-27 in April and didn’t collect his first hit until May 19.

• B.J. Upton is hitless in 12 at-bats with the bases loaded. Over the last 30 years, the worst oh-fer with the bases loaded was Jose Cruz Jr. (0-15) in 2003.

• Mark Kotsay is 0-for-24 against left-handed pitchers this season. This from a player who hit .336 against lefties in 2004 with Oakland. Over the last 35 years, only one position player had a bigger oh-fer against lefties. In 2000, John Mabry was 0-for-25 while splitting the season between Seattle and San Diego.

• Mark Reynolds leads the majors with 55 starts in which he didn’t pick up a hit. However, the strikeout king will avoid another mark of infamy. Over the last 90 years, the most oh-fer starts belongs to Bob Meacham, who was hitless in 84 starts for the Yankees in 1985 (though he did have a pair of four-hit games).

• In 13 appearances, Cleveland Indians reliever Justin Germano has yet to allow a hit to the first batter that he’s faced (though he did walk one). In 2005, the first batter facing the Mets Juan Padilla went 0-for-22.

Today’s Leaderboard: Josh Hamilton has 51 games with two or more hits this season, third in the majors behind Ichiro Suzuki and Martin Prado. However, Hamilton’s 24 three-plus hit games are six more than any other player. Interestingly, Ichiro only has 12 three-hit games. His career-low is 17.

Key Matchups: James Loney is hitting just .207 with a .605 OPS since the All-Star break. That includes a .192 average against lefties and a .195 average at home. All that spells trouble for Loney with Barry Zito coming to town. In 26 career plate appearances against the San Francisco Giants lefty, Loney has just 2 hits and no walks. That’s a batting average of .077, his lowest against anyone he’s faced at least 20 times.

The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Brandon Morrow has a chance at history on Friday. In his four previous starts against the New York Yankees, Morrow has 36 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings, a rate of 13.3 K per 9. Elias says that the highest single-season rate against the Yankees (min. 20 IP) is 12.6 by Pedro Martinez in 2001. Curtis Granderson has been Morrow’s primary victim with seven strikeouts in nine at-bats this season.

Trivia Answer: Dave Righetti’s 46 saves in 1986 broke Bruce Sutter’s mark set two seasons before. Thigpen’s record stood for 18 years before Francisco Rodriguez picked up 62 saves in 2008.

Today’s Trivia:
After going deep last night in Pittsburgh, Albert Pujols is now one home run away from his 400th career HR. Pujols' first career longball came in April of 2001 off of Armando Reynoso and the Arizona Diamondbacks. What did Pujols do in that game that he ALSO did last night? Hint: it’s something he has now done 26 times in his career.

Bonus: Obviously, Busch Stadium is the park where Pujols has gone deep the most. But which Busch Stadium – the one that closed in 2005 (Busch II) or the one that opened in 2006 (Busch III)?

Quick Hits:
The Tampa Bay Rays’ Rafael Soriano accomplished a rare baseball feat on Monday (a feat with a cool-sounding moniker to match its impressiveness): the Immaculate Inning. Such an inning requires striking out the side on nine pitches, which Soriano did against Erick Aybar, Mike Napoli and Peter Bourjos.

So rare is the feat that it has only been done 44 times in MLB history. Let’s take a look at some of the pitchers who have pulled off the Immaculate Inning, according to baseball-almanac.com:

• Only three have done the feat twice, and all three are Hall-of-Famers: Lefty Grove, Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. No one has done it three times.

• An Immaculate Inning has occurred in every inning, though it is most common late in games. It’s happened nine times in the ninth, seven times in the eighth and four times in the seventh.

• There are some pretty solid sluggers who have been on the other end of an Immaculate Inning. Ken Boyer was part of one thrown by Bob Bruce in 1964. Andre Dawson and Rafael Palmeiro were both part of one thrown by Jeff Robinson in 1987. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio have each been victims, though in different games. Even contact machine Ichiro Suzuki fell prey to one, but in his defense, it was done by Pedro Martinez.

• From Elias: The last closer to get a save while striking out the side on nine pitches in the ninth inning was LaTroy Hawkins in September 2004 for the Chicago Cubs.

• Call it the Rich Harden connection: On the same night Harden was pulled in the middle of a no-hitter, Soriano threw his Immaculate Inning. But Harden has an I.I. of his own, and it came in the first inning. He did it in June 2008 with the Oakland Athletics against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

• Koufax is the only one to throw an Immaculate Inning that turned into an immaculate game. His first Immaculate Inning came in his first no-hitter – on June 30, 1962 - and was also done in the first inning. His immaculaticity (not a word) ended in the second inning when the New York Mets’ Frank Thomas grounded out to short.

• And finally, a Lou Piniella connection. Piniella managed the 1991 Cincinnati Reds to a 74-88 record and fifth place division finish. But that might not have been the worst of it. That team, featuring Barry Larkin, Chris Sabo and Hal Morris, is the only team in MLB history to have two Immaculate Innings thrown against them in the same season. Andy Ashby and David Cone did it to them that year.

Today’s Leaderboard:
It’s becoming one of the classic adages in the sport – if you let the leadoff man get on base in an inning, he’s going to come around to hurt you. Well, don’t pity the leadoff men tonight. Several of the pitchers who are the top culprits in letting the leadoff man get on base are starting for their teams on Tuesday.

Key Matchups:
• Ichiro has been an All-Star every year of his 10-year MLB career and has never batted below .303 in a season. But none of that might be true if he had to face Josh Beckett in every at-bat. Beckett is limiting Ichiro to a career .190 BA (4-21) with more strikeouts (five) than hits. Among pitchers who have faced Ichiro at least 20 times, Beckett is the starter who’s holding him to the lowest average.

• These numbers don’t seem to match up: Adam Wainwright has a perfect 5-0 record at PNC Park, yet a pedestrian 5.56 ERA there. Among parks where Wainwright has pitched more than once, he has a higher era at only Dodger Stadium. Turns out, you can chalk up his sparkling record at PNC to run support. His offense has scored an average of 7.43 runs in games he started there.

• There’s a new Cincinnati Reds rookie starter in town, and he’s not named Mike Leake. Travis Wood takes the mound in San Francisco tonight, making his 10th career start. No Giant has seen him before, but they might want to know these numbers. Wood is allowing a .135 BA his first time through the lineup, but that jumps to .184 his second time through and .222 his third time through.

Trivia Answer: In both games, Pujols finished a triple shy of the cycle. In fact, Pujols has never hit for the cycle in his career despite coming a triple shy of it on 26 occasions. He has finished a home run shy of the cycle twice and finished a double shy of the cycle once.

The bonus question was a trick question. Sort of. Pujols has the exact same number of home runs at both Busch Stadiums – 94 at each.

Quick Hits: With the calendar turning to July, certain players are anxious for a fresh start, while others would prefer we just skip to August. Let’s take a look at what history tells us to expect.

• CC Sabathia will get right to it with a start against the Mariners on Thursday. That might not be a good thing. Sabathia is 17-23 with a 4.61 ERA in July, compared to 128-61 with a 3.43 ERA in all other months combined.
• Tim Hudson is 22-8 in July, a .733 win percentage. Among careers starting in the last 50 years, only two pitchers with at least 30 decisions have a higher win percentage: Storm Davis (.781) and Pedro Martinez (.750).
• Brad Lidge is 37-for-38 in save opportunities in July, and has converted 21 straight in the month going back to 2006.
• Hideki Okajima finished June with a 6.52 ERA, so July could not have come soon enough. He’s only allowed three earned runs over 29 July innings in his career.
• It’s tough to know what we should expect from Carlos Zambrano at this point, but July has traditionally been his best month. He’s 27-10 with a 2.86 ERA in his career. Over the previous three seasons, he is 12-3 with a 1.93 ERA in July.
• Rod Barajas is a .200 career hitter in July, the lowest of any active player (min. 300 PA). He hasn’t hit over .200 in the month since 2005.
• Perhaps the fresh scenery will help Russell Branyan avoid a poor July. Over the previous three seasons, the slugger has hit just .166 in the month.
• Over the previous two seasons, the Angels are 38-13 in July, best in the majors.

Today’s Trivia: July 1 is Canada Day. It’s also the final day of All-Star voting. Can you name the five players born in Canada to have made three or more All-Star Games?

Today’s Leaderboard: This is Howie Kendrick’s month to shine. He’s a .398 hitter in July, compared to .282 in every other month combined. Chase Utley’s injury status remains up in the air, which means he could miss the month where he performs at his best. He has the second best average among active players, followed by Robinson Cano. Throw in Skip Schumaker (fifth-best), and apparently July is for second basemen.

Key Matchups: Ichiro Suzuki is a .396 career hitter against CC Sabathia, whom he faces on Thursday. Even against an elite pitcher, a high batting average is nothing particularly notable for Ichiro. However, a .708 slugging percentage is quite noteworthy for a player known as a singles hitter. It’s his highest against any pitcher that he’s faced 35 times. Ichiro has eight extra-base hits (including three home runs) off of Sabathia, his most against any pitcher.

For the second straight year, Nelson Cruz will celebrate his birthday by facing Jered Weaver. Let’s just say it probably wasn’t his first choice. Cruz, who turns 30 today, is a .190 career hitter against Weaver with seven strikeouts in 21 at-bats. John Lackey is the only pitcher against whom Cruz has more strikeouts. In last year’s birthday meeting, Cruz went 1-for-2 against Weaver before leaving the game with back stiffness.

Trivia Answer: Larry Walker’s five All-Star Games are the most for a Canadian. Eric Gagne, Fergie Jenkins, Justin Morneau, and Jason Bay have all been named three times. On the subject of Canada, Jason Bay is 0-for-18 on Canada Day since 2006 according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Quick Hits: With less than a week before All-Star voting closes, let’s take a look at some players having historic first halves to the season. Can they keep up the pace going into the break?

• Arthur Rhodes’ 0.24 ERA would be the second lowest going into the break (min. 30 IP) over the last 50 years. In 1989, Bill Landrum took a 0.23 ERA into the break for the Pirates (but was not an NL All-Star), before finishing the season at 1.69.
• Likely to make three more starts before the break, Ubaldo Jimenez (13-1) has a shot at being the first pitcher with 16 wins before the break since Wilbur Wood (16-11) in 1974 for the White Sox. However, Wood did it in 27 starts, whereas Jimenez will have only made 18. The last pitcher to win 15 before the break was David Wells in 2000.
• Jaime Garcia’s 1.79 ERA would be the lowest at the break for a qualifying rookie since Mark Fidrych’s 1.78 in 1976. He started the All-Star Game for the AL that season.
• If he gets enough plate appearances to qualify, Brennan Boesch’s .346 batting average would be the highest for a rookie at the break in the last 50 years. In 2001, Ichiro Suzuki found himself at .345 going into the All-Star Game.
• Cliff Lee has issued just four walks in 86.2 innings, a rate of 0.42 per nine innings. Only one starter has had a lower rate going into the break over the last 50 years. In 2005, Carlos Silva walked only five in 114.2 innings, a rate of 0.39 per nine.
• Kenshin Kawakami (0-9) draws another start on Saturday. In 2007, Anthony Reyes went into the break at 0-10. The worst winless pre-break start over the last 50 years belongs to Anthony Young, who was 0-12 in 1993 for the Mets.
• The Orioles’ .278 winning percentage would be the fourth lowest at the break over the last 50 years, and the lowest since the 2003 Tigers (.272). The 1979 A’s hold the low-water mark over that span, having entered the break at 25-69 (.266).

Today’s Trivia: Over the last three seasons combined, who has the most home runs before the All-Star break?

Today’s Leaderboard: Roy Halladay takes the hill against the Blue Jays for the first time in his career today. Among players that started their career in the last 50 years, Halladay has the second best winning percentage before the All-Star break. Only Pedro Martinez has been more dominant. Halladay is 101-44 (.697) before the break, and just 55-38 (.591) after.

Key Matchups: Aaron Rowand has only started four of the Giants’ last 11 games, but you can bet that he will be penciled in on Friday. Quite simply, no one mashes Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball like Rowand, who is 11-for-17 with four home runs and eight RBI in his career against the veteran. That’s the highest average for anyone who has faced Wakefield at least 15 times. This would be their first regular season meeting since 2006.

In four of the first five games that he faced CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez hit a home run. He’s homerless in two meetings since, but has a .571 career average against the big lefty. Only Jermaine Dye and Alfonso Soriano have more career homers against Sabathia, but among those with 15 plate appearances, no one tops Manny’s 1.894 OPS.

Trivia Answer: Since 2008, Adam Dunn’s 66 home runs before the All-Star break are the most in the majors. He has one more than Albert Pujols and two more than Ryan Howard.

Quick Hits: We’ve essentially had three perfect games thrown this season, but Braden, Halladay and Gallaraga aren’t the only players who have been perfect. Here are a few others:

• Luke Gregerson leads the majors with 17 perfect relief appearances of at least one inning. His teammate Mike Adams is second with 15.
• Neftali Feliz and David Aardsma are tied for the lead with eight perfect saves of at least one inning. Jonathan Broxton is the NL leader with six.
• Eight players have had perfect games at the plate with at least three at-bats. The list includes Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Kendry Morales.
• San Diego’s Chris Denorfia is a perfect 4-4 with the bases loaded this season. Those four at-bats have resulted in seven of his nine RBI on the year.

Today’s Trivia: 15 years ago today Pedro Martinez pitched 9 perfect innings but the game went into the 10th tied at 0. Who was the Padres leadoff hitter who broke up Martinez’s perfect game in the 10th?

Today’s Leaderboard: Last week on TMI we introduced a stat called “rally-killing rate” which essentially calculates the percentage of time a player strikes out or grounds into a double play with runners in scoring position (with GIDP weighted more heavily that strikeouts). Here’s an updated leaderboard of this season’s biggest rally killers.

Key Matchups: Erick Aybar is batting .455 (5-11) in his career against Zack Greinke, with three doubles. He was one of the few batters to consistently fair well against Greinke in 2009, going 3-4 with two doubles and a walk in two games against him.

Trivia Answer: Bip Roberts doubled down the right field line to break up the perfect game. Martinez was then pulled and Mel Rojas came in to pick up the save. The Expos won 1-0, after Jeff Treadway drove in the game-winning run in the top of the 10th.

As Tim Kurkjian notes today, there does not appear to be an active starting pitcher who is a lock for Cooperstown. The Baseball Writers Association of America voters haven't elected a starter with less than 300 wins since Fergie Jenkins in 1991, and with Randy Johnson's retirement, just three active pitchers (including Pedro Martinez) are within even 100 wins of that magic number.

Wins shouldn't constitute the be-all and end-all of a pitcher's Hall of Fame case, anyway. As rising strikeout and walk rates (not to mention offensive levels) have elevated pitch counts, teams have grown more protective of hurlers, and starter Ws have decreased. Between those trends and the sabermetrically-driven awareness that wins are often a product of luck as much as skill, and it's time to re-evaluate how we evaluate Hall of Famers.

That leaves us caught between the traditional world of wins and Cy Youngs, and a more modern reckoning of value through WARP and JAWS, which is a Hall of Fame monitor I devised that takes the average of a players career and peak WARP, and compares it against the average enshrined player at his position. (Peak WARP is a player's seven best seasons.) On closer inspection, it appears we have a few Hall of Famers in our midst, as well as some interesting long shots.

But as you'll see, the locks are relievers, not starters. And since we are talking about active players, Pedro (JAWS score of 60.5) and John Smoltz (56.9) are not included here, though both will likely get in. The average starter in the Hall has a JAWS score of 59.0, while the average reliever's score is 44.5.

Best Bets

Mariano Rivera (71-52, 527 saves, 2.25 ERA, 82.6 career WARP/52.0 peak WARP/67.3 JAWS)
Arguably the greatest closer ever, and superior to the five enshrined relievers (Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, and Rich Gossage), Rivera ranks second all-time in saves. More importantly, he's also got the highest career, peak and JAWS scores of any active pitcher.

Trevor Hoffman (59-68, 593 saves, 2.73 ERA, 51.8 career WARP/34.8 peak WARP/43.3 JAWS)
Hoffman holds the major league record for saves, and while his stuff isn't quite what it used to be, he's still capable at 42. Though his JAWS numbers don't hold a candle to Rivera's, they're superior to those of Fingers and Sutter.

Need Some Work

Roy Halladay (149-76, 3.42 ERA, 45.9 career WARP/41.2 peak WARP/43.6 JAWS)
His Opening Day win over the Nationals leaves Halladay just short of halfway to 300, and while he hasn't won a Cy Young since 2003, he's perennially in the hunt. Last year was his most valuable season to date (7.7 WARP) thanks to a career-best strikeout rate (7.8 per nine). Moving to the easier league only helps his cause.

CC Sabathia (136-81, 3.63 ERA, 37.6 career WARP/32.6 peak WARP/35.1 JAWS)
His JAWS numbers aren't yet much to write home about, but his win total through his age 28 season tops several post-war Hall of Famers, and he'll be backed by an offensive dynamo for the foreseeable future. He's more of an old-school candidate whose case could be buoyed by wins.

Johan Santana (123-60, 3.11 ERA, 44.1 career WARP/41.0 peak WARP/42.6 JAWS)
Amid the misery of the current Mets franchise, and coming off a year which ended in elbow surgery, the two-time Cy Young winner's stock has fallen with respect to Cooperstown. Even so, he's two years younger than Halladay, with similar JAWS numbers, a higher strikeout rate (7.9 per nine in 2008-2009), and a more favorable ballpark in which to further his case.

Long Shots

Roy Oswalt (137-71, 3.23 ERA, 42.1 career WARP/37.0 peak WARP/39.6 JAWS)
Experience-wise, Oswalt belongs in the group above, but the 32-year-old's chances took a hit after an 8-6, 4.12 ERA 2009 season, which snapped a fine five-year run in which he averaged 17 wins and a 5.3 WARP. A herniated disc and other physical ailments don't bode well, but he's got a solid base to build upon if he manages to get back on track.

Tim Lincecum (41-17, 2.87 ERA, 15.8 career WARP/15.8 peak WARP/15.8 JAWS)
On the major league scene less than three full years, the going-on-26-year-old owns two Cy Youngs. Whether his body can withstand his unorthodox delivery long enough to assemble a long career of excellence remains to be seen; the annals are filled with great young pitchers -- take 25-year-old two-time Cy Young winner Bret Saberhagen -- who broke down.

Felix Hernandez (58-41, 3.46 ERA, 18.3 career WARP/18.3 peak WARP/18.3 JAWS)
While his numbers to date aren't overwhelming, the key is that Hernandez turned 24 this week having set career bests in wins, ERA, innings, strikeouts and WARP last year. On the other hand, of the 31 post-war pitchers with more wins through their age 24 seasons, only six survived to reach the Hall (seven if Bert Blyleven gains election).

Jay Jaffe is an author of Baseball Prospectus.