Stats & Info: Ryan Spilborghs

When the improbable becomes probable

August, 26, 2010
In the Colorado Rockies' come-from-way-behind 12-10 victory Wednesday afternoon against the Atlanta Braves, their win probability (based on teams throughout history in similar situations) dipped as low as 1.2 percent in the fourth inning:

• The Rockies trailed 3-0 after the top of the first, meaning their win probability was 28.9 percent even before they came to bat.

• After the top of the second, the Rockies trailed 7-0 - a win probability of 7.0 percent.

• When Omar Infante homered in the third inning to give the Braves a 10-1 lead, the Rockies' win probability fell to 2.2 percent.

• With the score still 10-1, Brian McCann doubled leading off the top of the fourth, and the Rockies' win probability dipped to its lowest point at 1.2 percent.

• Trailing 10-6 in the sixth inning, the Rockies' win probability sat at just 15.5 percent until a Ryan Spilborghs two-run double increased it to 30.8 percent, cutting the score to 10-8.

• The Rockies' win probability did not get above 30.8 percent until the eighth inning, when Carlos Gonzalez’s two-run single tied the game at 10. The Rockies win probability jumped all the way from 24.9 percent to 61.2 percent with the hit.

• When Troy Tulowitzki followed with the go-ahead single to make it 11-10, the Rockies' win probability went up to 84.9 percent, and increased to 93.1 percent with Todd Helton’s RBI single providing the final run.

• The Rockies' win probability did not dip below 90 percent from that time forward as they closed out the Braves in the 9th.

The Cincinnati Reds' 12-11 victory over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday featured several win probability swings:

• The Reds scored four runs in top of the first inning and had a win probability of 82.4 percent before the Giants even came to bat.

• After the Reds scored four more runs in the third inning to take an 8-1 lead, their win probability stood at 96.4 percent.

• When Homer Bailey singled to give Cincinnati a 10-1 lead in the fifth inning, the Reds' win probability was all the way up to 99.5 percent, its highest point until the game was over.

• The Giants cut the lead to 10-5 after six innings, but the Reds' win probability was still high at 97.4 percent.

• Even when Juan Uribe homered in the eighth to make it 10-8, the Reds still had a win probability of 85.2 percent.

• The biggest win probability jump of the game occurred on Andres Torres’ eighth-inning double, which tied the game at 10 and knocked the Reds’ win probability from 65.3 percent down to 26.2 percent.

• When Aubrey Huff’s sacrifice fly in the eighth gave the Giants an 11-10 lead, the Reds' win probability fell to 14.6 percent.

• The Reds entered the 9th inning trailing 11-10. After Ryan Hanigan flied out leading off the top of the inning, the Reds' win probability was at its lowest point at just 8.3 percent.

• After Drew Stubbs reached second base on an error, Paul Janish’s game-tying single in the 9th took the Reds' win probability from 21.9 percent up to 56.1 percent, the third-biggest jump of the game.

• The Reds took a 12-11 lead in the 12th inning on a Joey Votto single, which brought the Reds win probability from 48.1 to 84.9 percent, the second-largest win probability movement of the game.

• Torres came to bat in the ninth inning with runners on first and third and two out, with the Giants trailing 12-11. The Reds’ win probability was at 80.9 percent at this juncture. Torres grounded out to end the game, bringing the Reds’ win probability to 100 percent.

1st Pitch: Slumping Sophomores

May, 12, 2010
Quick Hits: The sophomore slump has hit a few players hard this year. Let’s take a look a few guys struggling to duplicate their rookie seasons:

* Chris Coghlan hit .319 against LHP in 2009, but is batting just .207 this year.

* Gordon Beckham hit .323 with RISP last year, but that number has dropped to .083 this season.

* Garrett Jones led all rookies with 21 homers last season, all of which came after he got ahead in the count 1-0. This season, he’s batting just .167 when ahead 1-0, compared to .349 last season.

* Rick Porcello’s struggles have come primarily against lefties, who are hitting .389 against him this season – over 100 points higher than their .281 mark last season.

Today’s Trivia: Today is Lou Whitaker’s 53rd birthday. Since he retired in 1995, who has played the most games at second base for the Tigers?

Today’s Leaderboard: Baseball-Reference tracks a stat called percent of extra bases taken. It’s the percentage of times a runner advances more than one base on a single and more than two bases on a double, when possible. There’s a certain element to the stat that’s out of the base runner’s control (where the ball is hit, fielder’s arm, etc) but a higher percentage typically corresponds to a better base runner. Here are this year’s leaders.

Key Matchups: Not many pitchers can say they own Albert Pujols, but Wandy Rodriguez is one of the few. Among pitchers whom Pujols has faced at least 25 times, no one has held him to a lower batting average than Rodriguez. In 40 plate appearances against Rodriguez, Pujols is batting just .212 with one home run.

Don’t be surprised if Ryan Spilborghs gets a start for the Rockies tonight in the second game of their double header. Spilborghs has six hits in 11 at bats against Jamie Moyer, including two home runs.

Trivia Answer: Damion Easley played in 795 games at second base for the Tigers from 1996 to 2002. Trailing him are Placido Polanco (625), Omar Infante (235) and Mark Lewis (144).