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The Philadelphia Phillies look to wrap things up on Wednesday in Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. A look at some key storylines going into the evening:

Inside the Series
The Phillies took Game 3 on Tuesday, and history shows the importance of that. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, when a five-game Division Series is tied after the first two games, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 19 of 23 times since 1995.

Philadelphia is 3-0 all-time in Game 4 of a divisional series. In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Phillies have won each of the last six postseason games in which they had a chance to eliminate an opponent. The streak, which dates to 2008, is tied for the second longest in MLB history. The A’s won nine straight potential series clinchers from 1973 to 1990.

On the Mound
Roy Oswalt takes the mound for the Phillies, boasting a 5-0 career record in 10 postseason starts (note: his loss in the 2010 NLCS came in relief). According to Elias, he would be just the fifth pitcher to win his first six postseason decisions as a starter. Orlando Hernandez won his first eight. He is followed by Cliff Lee (seven), Orel Hershiser (seven) and Lefty Gomez (six).

Oswalt is 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three career postseason starts against the Cardinals. However, he hasn’t faced them in the playoffs since Game 6 of the 2005 NLCS.

The Cardinals counter with Edwin Jackson, who after 173 regular season starts is making his first in the postseason. In 2008, Jackson’s 14 wins were tied for the most on the Tampa Bay Rays, but he was relegated to the bullpen for the postseason.

Jackson hasn’t lost since August 20, a span of seven starts in which he is 3-0 with a 3.02 ERA. His success has come from a consistent ability to work out of jams. As Elias notes, opponents are batting .339 with the bases empty against Jackson, the highest such average among qualifying pitchers. However, he also held opponents to a .216 batting average with runners in scoring position.

Matchups to Watch
In what could potentially be his final game in a Cardinals uniform, Albert Pujols will face a familiar foe in Oswalt. No one has more career plate appearances (102), hits (30) or home runs (seven) against Oswalt. That success has carried over to the postseason, when Pujols is 4-for-9 with two home runs and four RBI against Oswalt.

Jackson has only one career start against the Phillies, and a limited track record against their key players. However, keep an eye on Shane Victorino solely for where he hits in the lineup. Opposing No. 5 hitters combined to hit .353 with 6 HR, 18 RBI and a 1.103 OPS against Jackson this season. Only Joe Saunders (1.124) allowed a higher OPS from the five spot.

The National League Division Series shifts to St. Louis for a pivotal Game 3 between the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, in a five-game Division Series that is tied after the first two games, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 19 of the 23 times since 1995, including 11 of the 12 series in the National League.

However, by winning Game 1, the Phillies have history on their side. In the Wild Card Era (since 1995), the Game 1 winner in the Division Series has won 73 percent of the time, including wins in 29 of the 32 NL series.

Inside the Series
Sunday night’s loss snapped a six-game winning streak in the Division Series for the Phillies. That was tied for the third-longest all-time and second-longest among NL teams. Since their World Series run in 2008, the Phillies are 10-3 in Division Series.

Despite their victory on Sunday, the Cardinals are still just 2-5 in their last seven Division Series games. However, the Redbirds have won six of their last eight postseason games at Busch Stadium and are an impressive 11-3 all-time in Division Series games in St. Louis.

On the Mound
Cole Hamels, the 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP, makes his 13th career postseason start. Hamels has had success in this situation before, when he threw a five-hit, nine-strikeout shutout in Game 3 of the NLDS last year against the Reds.

Hamels struggled down the stretch this year, with a 3.79 ERA in September that was his highest in any month. He allowed four runs in two of his final five starts, after doing so in just three of his first 26 starts.

Hamels had trouble with the longball last month, during which he allowed nine of his 19 homers. Luck may not have been on his side, though, as one of every five flyballs hit against him went over the fence in September; in the first five months, he gave up a homer on just one of every 15 flyballs he allowed.

Jaime Garcia gets the nod for the Cardinals, making his first career postseason start. Garcia was much more effective at home this season, with an ERA in St. Louis that was more than two runs better than on the road.

Garcia shut down the Phillies in his two starts against them this season, allowing just one earned run in 15 innings while holding the Phillies batters to a sub-.200 average. Garcia owns a 1.20 ERA in six career games against Philly, the lowest ERA among active pitchers versus the team (min. four starts).

Matchups to Watch
Albert Pujols hasn’t been able to solve Hamels during his career. He is 4-for-23 (.174) in their matchups, although two of his four hits are homers. That’s his lowest batting average vs. any active pitcher (min. 20 at-bats).

Garcia has been able to neutralize the current Phillies hitters, holding them to a .186 batting average and .547 OPS in his career. Of note, lefties Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are a combined 2-18 (.111) while switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are a combined 3-20 (.150).

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies play the middle game of a three-game set in Philadelphia on ESPN’s Wednesday Night Baseball.

Two of the top four teams in the National League square off in the City of Brotherly Love, a city where before Tuesday night’s win, Arizona had lost seven straight and eight of the last nine games to the Phillies.

On the mound

Joe Saunders takes the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight. The lefty has turned around his season of late after an ugly start to the year. After starting 3-7 with a 4.50 ERA, Saunders is 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA over his last 10 starts.

Saunders has not had success against the three Phillies he has faced the most, Placido Polanco (9-23, .391 BA), Raul Ibanez (8-23, .348 BA) and Ben Francisco (5-11, .455 BA).

However, the good news for Saunders is that the player he’s faced the next most is Ryan Howard (0-9, 4 K).

The Phillies counter with Cliff Lee, who’s also had a tale of two seasons. Lee got off to a slow start before having one of the best months ever by a starting pitcher in June.

Over the first two months of the year, Lee went 4-5 with a 3.94 ERA, but is 8-2 with a 1.86 ERA since June (including going 5-0 with a 0.21 ERA in five June starts).

How has Lee done it during this turnaround?

By throwing his curveball more often, which has made his changeup even more effective as a secondary pitch even though he’s throwing it with the same frequency.

Matchups

There are two bona-fide MVP candidates squaring off in this game -- one who gets mentioned all the time (Justin Upton) and one who is routinely passed over (Shane Victorino).

Upton is on the short list of NL MVP candidates this season as he’s broken through to superstardom. He leads all National League players in Wins Above Replacement and is third among all major leaguers.

Victorino’s name doesn’t normally come up when National League MVP candidates are mentioned, but maybe it should, especially since Victorino has played just 93 games to Upton’s 121.

Stat of the game

The Diamondbacks are 33-27 on the road. They haven’t finished a season with a winning road record since 2005 (41-40). One of the biggest keys to that – their pitchers are on pace to allow 67 fewer ROAD walks than last season.

The following is a preview of the Sunday Night Baseball (ESPN, 8 ET) meeting between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, with Jair Jurrjens scheduled to start against Cole Hamels.

The Phillies' rotation gets all the attention, but the Braves have a claim to the title of National League's best. Atlanta's rotation has the best ERA, the most innings pitched and the lowest opponents' batting average in the National League.

The Phillies' starters lead the NL in complete games and strikeouts, have the fewest walks and rank second to the Braves in ERA and innings pitched, and the Philadelphia pitching staff has a league-leading six shutouts.

And they've pitched better as this young season has progressed, cutting their ERA nearly in half and bumping their strikeouts per nine innings pitched up over nine in the past 16 games.

The reason the Braves sit in third place in the division, four-and-a-half games behind the first-place Phillies, is that they rank near the bottom of the league in hitting.

They've been timely when they do hit, however, ranking first in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position.

Hamels Matchups to Watch
Dan Uggla was 3-for-his-first-11 versus Hamels. He has since gone 3-for-his-last-29, including 1-for-his-last 9 against him. Uggla does not have a hit this season on an outside pitch by a left-handed pitcher and only one hit off a lefty's fastball.

Jurrjens Matchups to Watch
Jimmy Rollins is 1-for-his-last-16 against Jurrjens. Amazingly, he’s hitting just .154 against Jurrjens (4-for-26), but has never struck out against him.

Shane Victorino is 1-for-his-last 15 against Jurrjens.

The Phillies have won eight of their past 11 meetings with the Braves, and have won seven of their past nine games overall. The Braves, on the other hand, have won six of seven, the only loss coming Saturday night to the Phillies.

As far as statistical oddities go, these are two that are tough to explain; one is good news for the Braves, the other is not. The Phillies are 10-0 in day games this season, making them 12-10 at night. But they are 4-7 in series openers, meaning they are 18-3 in all other games.

The latter has held true against the Braves; the Phillies have dropped both series openers and have won the other three games.

-- Mark Simon and David Bearman contributed to this report

ESPN's Home Run Tracker analyzes video of each home run hit this season. Each month, the tracker will detail the best and worst home runs, as well as some other interesting statistics pertaining to the long ball. Below are the notable home runs in the months of March and April.

Wall-Scraper: Shortest True Distance
March/April Winner: Sam Fuld, Tampa Bay Rays
Fuld’s 323-foot home run off of Daisuke Matsuzaka on April 11 took just 3.32 seconds to leave the yard. Fortunately for Fuld, his blast came while playing at Fenway Park, the only park that particular batted ball would have been a home run in. Believe it or not, Shane Victorino’s inside-the-park home run April 24 hit of Wade LeBlanc traveled 346 feet.

Moonshot: Highest Apex (Apex: maximum vertical height ball reaches)
March/April Winner: Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles
Although they drop jaws for their height, “moonshot” home runs tend to produce true distances that are far from astonishing. Such is the case for Scott’s fifth-inning home run off Cleveland’s Josh Tomlin on April 16. It traveled just 339 feet, but was hit 148 feet in the air. Scott’s home run took 6.39 seconds to clear the fence, nearly 1.5 seconds longer than the league average (4.85 seconds).

Line Drive: Lowest Apex
March/April Winner: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays
Bautista’s home run off Tampa Bay’s David Price on April 23 had an apex of just 46 feet. In 3.56 seconds, Bautista’s shot traveled 383 feet.

Fast-ball: Fastest Speed Off Bat
March/April Winner: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
There are many things that can’t travel 116.7 mph, including a large number of automobiles. But that was the speed that ball traveled off Upton’s second-inning homer on April 12 off the Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter.

Player Power Surge: Most Combined Distance by One Player
March/April Winner: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
Braun tallied 4,089 feet of total home run distance for the months of March and April, squeaking past Alfonso Soriano by 70 feet. Both Braun and Soriano hit 10 home runs in March and April. Five of Braun’s 10 home runs traveled more than 420 feet, including a pair that went 444 and 445 feet.

Server of the Month: Most Combined Distance Allowed by One Pitcher
March/April Winner: Armando Galarraga, Arizona Diamondbacks
The “Imperfect Game” winner has been far from perfect this season. In 28 innings in the month of April, Galarraga allowed 11 home runs (currently on pace to allow 71) that have traveled 4,400 feet.

Wackiest: Most Improbable
March/April Winner: Miguel Olivo, Seattle Mariners
Give an assist to Detroit Tigers outfielder Ryan Raburn on this one. Olivo’s second-inning shot off Phil Coke was about 10 feet short of being a home run, but Raburn’s glove deflected the ball over the fence at spacious Comerica Park. With an apex of just 45 feet, Olivo’s “home run” should win the award for Line Drive of the Month. But, because it required some assistance from Raburn, wackiest is more apropos.

The National League Rawlings Gold Glove Awards were announced Wednesday; three players from the Cincinnati Reds, and two apiece from the St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies were rewarded, along with centerfielders Shane Victorino of the Philadelphia Phillies and Michael Bourn of the Houston Astros.

Bronson Arroyo won his first Gold Glove by tying for the lead among National League pitchers with six defensive runs saved. Troy Tulowitzki, another first-timer, was second among qualified NL shortstops with, according to Baseball Info Solutions, 16 defensive runs saved.

Scott Rolen made the second fewest errors and had the second best fielding percentage among NL third basemen en route to his eighth career award. And Yadier Molina won his third by leading NL catchers in assists (15 more than runner-up Brian McCann) and caught stealing percentage -- a whopping 48.5.

The biggest question in the National League comes in the outfield, where Victorino and Bourn are joined by Carlos Gonzalez. The first two won their third and second awards, respectively, in deserving fashion. Victorino tied for the NL lead with 11 outfield assists and tied for fifth among NL outfielders with 11 defensive runs saved. Bourn tied for second in that category with 16.

Gonzalez did have five Web Gems and 17 Web Gem points, but he finished 23rd among qualified NL outfielders with -2 defensive runs saved. Another defensive metric from Fangraphs.com, Ultimate Zone Rating (per 150 defensive games played) had him 20th at -3.8 (behind teammate Dexter Fowler among others). In fact, we can’t find a stat that justifies his selection.

Baseball Info Solutions charts good plays and misplays by category. Gonzalez did not rank among the leaders in any significant good play defensive category by their measures. He did rate tied for first among outfielders in their category “Wasted Throw after Hit or Error” with five instances in which a Gonzalez throw led to another baserunner advancing on the play.

Reds rightfielder Jay Bruce made his case for a Gold Glove, leading all NL outfielders in defensive runs saved (17) and finishing second in UZR/150.

Brandon Phillips won the award at second base with the second fewest errors while leading all major league second basemen in Web Gems. But 27 NL second basemen had more defensive runs saved than Phillips did, including Phillies second baseman Chase Utley.
Many believe Utley is long overdue for a Gold Glove, as he’s led NL second basemen in defensive runs saved in each of the past three seasons, including in 2008 when he nearly doubled the player who finished second. He was second in 2007, and third in 2006 and 2005 as well. And this season, Utley led NL second basemen in Plus/Minus, as well as Total Zone Runs as a 2B, Range Factor per 9 innings as a 2B and Range Factor per game as a 2B. The latter three came courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Notably, all four infield winners, including first baseman Albert Pujols, led the National League in Web Gems at their position. Tulowitzki was the overall Web Gem champion.

All rankings in defensive runs saved and UZR/150 are among qualified National League players at that position, and are taken from Fangraphs.

Why would San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy flip-flop Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, so that Sanchez pitches Game 2 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies in Philadelphia?

There’s a very good reason.

Sanchez beat the Phillies twice during the regular season, holding them to a .114 batting average and two runs in 13 innings. For his career, he’s held the Phillies to a .175 batting average. That’s best among the 75 active pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings against the Phillies. Change the qualifier to five starts and Sanchez is second-best of anybody in the last 55 years (trailing only Floyd Youmans). He’s even 10 points better than the immortal Sandy Koufax.

The matchups rate favorably for Sanchez against every Phillies hitter, with one exception -- Shane Victorino is 6-for-15 (.400 BA) against him. Other than that, it’s pretty lopsided in Sanchez’s favor. Ryan Howard’s .214 batting average (3-for-14 with seven strikeouts) looks pretty good compared to Carlos Ruiz (.111, 1-for-9), Jimmy Rollins (.067, 1-for-16), Jayson Werth (0-for-12, six strikeouts), Ben Francisco (0-for-8) and Raul Ibanez (0-for-6).

Sanchez allowed one run and two hits in 7⅓ innings in Game 3 of the Division Series against the Atlanta Braves. He’s one of three Giants to have a postseason start of at least seven innings and allowing two hits or fewer, joining teammate Lincecum and Dave Dravecky (1987).

That kind of performance is nothing new. Over the last two seasons, Sanchez has had that sort of performance three times in the regular season, including Aug. 19, when he took a one-hitter into the ninth inning of an eventual 5-2 win over the Phillies.

The Dodgers' Hiroki Kuroda was five outs away from throwing the sixth no-hitter in Major League Baseball this season until the Phillies' Shane Victorino singled with one out in the 8th inning Monday.

There have been 18 no-hit bids taken into the 8th inning or later this season. Five have been completed, five have been broken up in the 9th inning and eight including Kuroda's have been broken up in the 8th inning.


Kuroda is the first Dodgers pitcher to take a no hitter past the seventh inning since Clayton Kershaw had his no-hitter broken up with no outs in the 8th inning by the Marlins on May 17, 2009.

It's the second time in the last three seasons that Kuroda has taken a no-hitter past the seventh inning only to have it broken up in the 8th. Mark Teixeira broke up Kuroda's last no-hit bid in the 8th inning against the Braves on July 7, 2008.

Since 1996, when Hideo Nomo recorded the Dodgers' last no-hitter, the only Dodgers pitcher to go as deep into a game without allowing a hit as Kuroda did against the Phillies was Ramon Martinez on April 5, 1998 in Cincinnati. Eddie Taubensee spoiled Martinez’s no-hit bid that day with a one-out single in the eighth inning.

Although the Philadelphia Phillies' Jimmy Rollins statistically is having one of the worst seasons in his career -- his OPS of .698 would be the second lowest in any of his 11 seasons -- manager Charlie Manuel continues to write Rollins' name at the top of the lineup card. Yet on Monday, Manuel did acknowledge Rollins’ struggles, noting that he is "waiting for him to get his stroke" and that "he's having a hard time finding his swing."

Last year, when Rollins was mired in an early-season slump (.199 BA and an OBP of .240 on May 15), his value as the leadoff batter was questioned by fans and reporters. When one writer suggested that Jayson Werth be moved to the top of the order, Manuel responded "I’ve thought about that", but insisted that he liked the balance the right-handed hitting Werth provided in an otherwise lefty-heavy hitting middle of the lineup.

The Phillies are on a roll right now. They’ve won 19 of their last 24 games, lead the National League Wild Card by a game over the San Francisco Giants, and are within two and-a-half games of the first-place Braves in the NL East. But Rollins continues to put up subpar numbers in the leadoff spot, and the offense has been inconsistent all season. Philadelphia has scored 10 or more runs 13 times, tied for the most in the majors. However, the Phillies also have been shut out 10 times, their most in a single season since 2003.

So here's a radical solution that could both shake J-Roll out of his offensive funk and maybe generate more runs for the Phillies as they fight for a playoff berth down the stretch: Put Werth at the top of the order and move Rollins to a lower spot in the lineup for the final six weeks of the season. (Werth did bat leadoff in one game this season, going 1-for-3 with a walk on June 2 against the Braves. while Rollins has hit third, fifth and sixth in a combined 11 games this season.)

The leadoff position usually is filled by a batter who works counts, gets on base consistently and aggressively advances on the bases to put himself in position to score. With that criteria in mind, let's put together a Tale of Tape comparing Rollins and Werth:


First, consider one of the most basic stats for a leadoff hitter -- getting on base when leading off an inning. While the sample sizes are small and may not be entirely predictive of how good of a leadoff batter the player may be, as shown in the chart, Werth owns a huge advantage over Rollins in on-base percentage when leading off an inning and with the bases empty.

Also, Werth has the clear edge in working counts and getting on base overall. In fact, he leads the league in pitches per plate appearance and ranks fourth in OBP.

In terms of baserunning, Rollins does have more stolen bases than Werth this season, but Werth has been more aggressive on the base paths, taking an extra base at a higher rate than Rollins. Remember, Werth has shown impressive speed in the past, having swiped 20 bases in both 2008 and 2009.

Stealing second isn’t the only way to put yourself in scoring position, though, as a double will do the trick with just one swing of the bat. Werth's 39 doubles are tied for the National League lead, while Rollins has hit just 11 in his 236 at-bats during an injury-shortened season.

Not only does Werth possess the key characteristics of a leadoff hitter -- and far superior numbers to Rollins -- but he's also really underperforming in his role as the five-hitter in the batting order, which is typically a spot that’s filled by a player who can drive in runners and clear the bases. Those are exactly the situations where Werth has been at his worst this season. As shown below, while he has excelled with the bases empty, Werth has really struggled to hit with runners on base and in scoring position.


Based on stats alone, it appears that Werth is the better option over Rollins to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup. But the move also triggers other questions that Manuel will have address. First, how will Rollins, who has been the Phillies primary leadoff batter nearly his entire career, respond to being moved down in the order for an extended stretch of games? Second, who will step into Werth's role as a righty power bat in the heart of the lineup?

If the move works -- with Werth sparking the offense from the top of the order, Rollins proving to be an explosive weapon lower in the lineup and perhaps Shane Victorino protecting Ryan Howard in the five-hole -- and the Phillies make the playoffs, they can look forward to the chance to make history this postseason.

With back-to-back World Series appearances already in their pocket, the Phillies can become the first team from the Senior Circuit to advance to the World Series in three straight seasons since the St. Louis Cardinals did it from 1942–44, and just the sixth NL team since 1901.

The Phillies look to extend their Wild-Card lead over the Giants tonight at 7 p.m. ET in the first game of a Wednesday Night Baseball doubleheader on ESPN.

Quick Hits: Here’s a look at some players who are crushing fastballs this season [source: Inside Edge]:

* Marlon Byrd is hitting .422 off fastballs this season, tops in the majors among players with at least 50 at-bats.

* Jose Bautista, Paul Konerko and Kelly Johnson are tied for the MLB lead with 9 HR off fastballs this season.

* Chase Utley leads the majors with a well-hit average of .450 against fastballs

* John Buck leads the majors with a 1.298 OPS vs fastballs

* Juan Pierre has swung and missed on just 2.6 percent of fastballs he has offered at this season.

* Travis Hafner is batting .545 (6-11) off fastballs 95 mph or faster.

* Shane Victorino leads the majors with four HR off fastballs 93 mph or faster.

Today’s Trivia: Today is the six-year anniversary of Randy Johnson’s perfect game. Can you name the only player other than Johnson to throw a perfect game while wearing No. 51?

Today’s Leaderboard: Sticking with the fastball theme, here are the leaders, according to Inside Edge, in slugging percentage vs fastballs 93 miles per hour or faster. Thanks to his league-leading four home runs, Victorino also leads in slugging percentage.

Key Matchups: Miguel Tejada is one of the few hitters who have Zack Greinke figured out. In his career against Greinke, Tejada is 5-9 with a home run.

It’s doubtful that anyone on the Red Sox is looking forward to facing CC Sabathia tonight, but two guys should be particularly uneasy about tonight’s matchup. Dustin Pedroia is batting .053 (1-19) in his career against Sabathia. Adrian Beltre hasn’t been much better, posting a .063 average (1-16).

Trivia Answer: Dallas Braden

This week on the TMI Power Poll we look at the top all-around centerfielders.

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti publicly criticized Matt Kemp last week, suggesting that the centerfielder's new contract has him too comfortable and that his baserunning and defense were "below average." There might be something to that as Kemp was caught stealing Sunday for the sixth time this season, which leads the majors.

Those early season baserunning blunders weren't enough to sway our voters from ranking Kemp the game's best centerfielder as the Dodger picked up 7 of 9 first-place votes. Here's the rest of the top 10:

Others receiving votes: Vernon Wells, Michael Bourn, Marlon Byrd, Nyjer Morgan, Adam Jones, Mike Cameron, Chris Young, Carlos Beltran, Nate McLouth, Alex Rios

This week in the TMI Power Poll we focus on switch hitters. No easy task to be able to rake from both sides at the major-league level.

Despite his slow start to 2010, we have Mark Teixeira firmly in the top spot thanks to his track record. Teixeira received 8 of 9 first-place votes. Here's a look at the rest of the list:
Others receiving votes: Chone Figgins, Brian Roberts, Nick Swisher, Rafael Furcal, Carlos Guillen, Shane Victorino, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jorge Posada, Erick Aybar.

* The winner for the batter who had the best afternoon on Thursday has to be Ryan Braun. The Milwaukee Brewers OF went 4-for-5 with 3 RBI while hitting his third HR of the season.

All four of Braun's hits came on fastballs, three of them in the zone. Don't pitchers know better by now?

Braun's 6th-inning single came on the first pitch he saw from Sean Marshall. Apparently Marshall missed the scouting report that says "don't throw him a first-pitch fastball". Since the start of the '09 season, he's hitting .424 against those, and .583 when it's right in the middle of the plate, as Thursday's offering was. (As a point of context, during the 2009 season the MLB average for at bats ending with fastballs over the middle of the plate was .404.)

Marshall apparently didn't pass this knowledge on to Jeff Samardzija. He missed with the first pitch to Mr. Braun and then tried to even things up by throwing another fastball right down the middle. Braun took it out of the park. Over the past two-plus seasons, Braun hits a whopping .460 when he's AHEAD and gets a fastball. That's sixth in the majors over that span. When that fastball is right over the heart of the plate, Braun jumps up to .571, with an OPS of 1.643.

With three ribbies today, Braun has 11 RBI through 9 games. That puts him in some truly elite company in Brewers history...

Most RBI Through First 9 Team Games
Brewers Last 30 Seasons
1998 Jeromy Burnitz, 17 <<
1982 Ben Oglivie, 13
2010 Ryan Braun, 11
1987 Rob Deer, 11
>> franchise record

* From the Elias Sports Bureau: In the Nationals-Phillies game today, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Zimmerman each homered.

It was the first game in MLB history in which players with the last names starting in U, V and Z all homered.

* This afternoon's Texas/Cleveland tilt was the shortest game (by time) so far this season. The overwhelming crowd of 10,198 barely got their money's worth. Clocking in at two hours and three minutes, the Rangers/Indians game bested Wednesday's Pirates/Giants game which took only 2:08.

Today’s Trivia: Happy Birthday to the 1995 Atlanta Braves. Well, three of them at least. Greg Maddux, David Justice and Steve Avery were all born on April 14. Maddux posted an NL-best 1.63 ERA in 1995. Can you name the two other pitchers on that team that won an ERA title at some point in their career?

Quick Hits: April has not been kind to leadoff hitters thus far, a trend spotted by Baseball Tonight researcher Mark Simon. With the obligatory acknowledgement that we are only 10 days into the season, let’s take a look at the hole at the top spot in the order.

* Apparently, leadoff is the new seventh. Leadoff batters are hitting .249 with an OBP of .316. Meanwhile, the seventh spot is a collective .250 with an OBP of .316

* The No. 1 hitter in the Texas Rangers lineup is 1-28 with no walks. Cincinnati Reds pitcher Mike Leake had more hits than that in his MLB debut. The No. 1 hitter for the Braves is 2-29. Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Edwin Jackson had two hits in an inning.

* The primary culprits have been Julio Borbon (1-25), Melky Cabrera (2-26), and a pair of Padres: Everth Cabrera (1-15) and Tony Gwynn, Jr. (1-11).

* In all, ten teams are hitting under .200 from the top spot in the order.

* Thirteen No. 1 hitters have an on-base percentage below .200 (minimum 15 PA)

* Though Carlos Gonzalez has the highest leadoff average (.393), Jimmy Rollins has arguably been the most productive leadoff hitter thus far. He’s hitting .391 with a .516 on-base percentage. The catch? Rollins appears on his way to the disabled list. Shane Victorino, his likely replacement atop the lineup, is a career .227 hitter from the top spot.

Key Matchups: Bobby Abreu has nine career home runs against Javier Vazquez, which is five more than he has against any other pitcher. However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The Elias Sports Bureau unearthed a fascinating element to their head-to-head history. Abreu has three multi-homer games against Vazquez, making him the first to do that against one pitcher since Willie McCovey against Bob Buhl.

Looking to guide the Astros to their first win, Brett Myers is 4-2 in his career against the Cardinals. However, the current Cardinals lineup might indicate a different story. Six Cardinals regulars have faced Myers before, and they’ve combined to hit .392 with nine home runs in just 79 at-bats. For once Albert Pujols is bringing down the rest of the group. He is a .310 hitter against Myers with “only” two homers in 29 at-bats.

Today’s Leaderboard: Five players that have made at least 20 plate appearances have yet to strikeout this season. The most surprising would have to be Ivan Rodriguez, who fanned 92 times last season. With one strikeout in 34 PA, Chase Utley just missed the list. He had 110 strikeouts last season.

Trivia Answer: If you guessed Tom Glavine and John Smoltz... sorry, they never led the league in ERA. Alejandro Pena (1984) and Jason Schmidt (2003) would be the correct answers.

Over the next couple of days, I’ll be optimizing MLB's best lineups by "The Book." No, not the collection of traditional baseball heuristics, but an actual, published book that statistically analyzes those traditional assumptions. Up first, the Philadelphia Phillies, with the following projected starters against right-handed pitching (using ZiPS).


While you could make a good argument that neither deserves to bat this high, Shane Victorino deserves the leadoff spot over Jimmy Rollins. Even if the latter returns to pre-2009 form, his lack of on-base skills and larger percentage of value tied to the home run make him ill suited to set the table.

The two best hitters go in the second and fourth spots. The cleanup hitter actually comes to bat with runners on base more often, with more potential to do damage, but because the No. 2 hole comes to the plate more often overall, these two spots are equally important. Chase Utley is the better on-base threat, so he goes in the No. 2 hole, and Ryan Howard's power bats cleanup.

Why skip over the No. 3 hole? Because it comes to the plate with two outs more often than other top-of-the-order spots, limiting its production. The third hitter is about as important as the fifth hitter, and "The Book" says we should favor lower OBP players with high home run rates -- if there are two outs, the risk-reward of an out versus a home run is a good gamble.

All else being equal, Raul Ibanez would go in the No. 3 hole, but Jayson Werth makes a bit more sense for the Phillies because his right-handed bat will split up Utley and Howard. If the opposing team wants to use a LOOGY against both those lefties, Charlie Manuel might as well either get a good matchup in between or force the other team to use two extra relievers.

That leaves us with this top five:
1. Victorino
2. Utley
3. Werth
4. Howard
5. Ibanez

In general, the rest of the order should be penciled in from best to worst overall hitter, but the Phillies probably should put Rollins ahead of Placido Polanco in the No. 6 and No. 7 holes. Rollins' power is much more effective at scoring the slow-footed Howard and Ibanez. Plus, his extra-base hits and stolen bases are most useful in front of a singles hitter like Polanco, setting up a classic 1-2 combination lower in the order.

Finally, Carlos Ruiz gets plugged in to the No. 9 hole. Yes, that's right, after the pitcher. Ruiz isn't being punished. In fact, the worse he hits (or the better the pitcher hits), the more motivation there is to move him up to No. 8. Because the pitcher is an easy out, he works to both kill rallies and roll the top of the lineup over without anyone on base. Based on research in "The Book," the second drawback is, on average, more harmful. By putting Ruiz in the No. 9 hole, Victorino and Utley are more likely to come to bat with a runner on base -- it's a twist on the "second leadoff hitter" theory.

All of that leaves us with the following optimal lineup for the 2010 Phillies against right-handed starters:

1. Victorino (S)
2. Utley (L)
3. Werth (R)
4. Howard (L)
5. Ibanez (L)
6. Rollins (S)
7. Polanco (R)
8. Pitcher
9. Ruiz (R)

A longer explanation of some of the batting-order principles in "The Book" can be found in this article. Sky Kalkman writes for Beyond The Box Score.