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First place in the NL East is on the line this weekend as the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals kick off a three game series tonight at Turner Field. The Nationals currently hold a one-game lead but need to win at least two games in Atlanta to remain atop the division on Memorial Day.

The Braves look to reverse their recent slump and avoid a season-high fifth straight loss. The league’s second-best offense averaged just two runs per game and was hitless in 12 at-bats with runners in scoring position as they were swept by the Cincinnati Reds earlier this week.

Atlanta sends veteran Tim Hudson to the mound in the opening game tonight. Hudson is 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA in his career versus the Nationals/Expos franchise, the second-most wins and best ERA among active pitchers against the team.

Hudson has also not allowed more than three earned runs at home in his last 19 starts. That’s the longest current streak of consecutive home starts allowing three or fewer earned runs, and the longest by a Braves pitcher since Greg Maddux reeled off 23 such starts from 1993-95.

The Nationals enter the series having won three of their last four games, getting strong performances from their top three studs in the rotation – Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez – before losing to Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday.

Tonight Ross Detwiler takes the ball for the Nationals. Detwiler had the last non-quality start by a Washington pitcher when he allowed a season-high six runs in Saturday's 6-5 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.

Detwiler allowed a total of eight earned runs in his first six starts combined (2.10 ERA), but has given up 10 earned runs in 10 innings (9.00 ERA) over his last two outings. Lefties are 3-for-7 with two extra-base hits against him during that span, after he held them to just two hits in 29 at-bats (.069 BA) in his first six starts this season.

Splitting Aces
Two aces who have had uncharacteristic struggles this season face off in south Florida tonight when Tim Lincecum and the San Francisco Giants visit Josh Johnson and the Miami Marlins.

A two-time Cy Young winner, Lincecum has a career-worst 6.04 ERA and just one quality start this season. He has allowed at least four earned runs in six of nine starts, after doing so just seven times in 33 starts last year.

One major issue appears to be a significant drop in fastball velocity, along with a shrinking difference between the speeds of his heater and changeup. His fastball is averaging just 89.9 mph this season, after averaging 92.2 mph last year, while his changeup velocity has barely moved (83.7 mph in 2011, 83.1 mph in 2012).

Johnson struggled early on, going winless with a 6.69 ERA in his first six starts, but is 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA over his last three outings. His fastball has become much more effective, as opponents are hitting .125 against the pitch in his past three games, compared to .391 in his first six starts.

No team could use a stretch of favorable pitching matchups more than the Minnesota Twins, who entered Sunday with the worst record in the majors at 14-26. But, as teams far better than the Twins have learned the hard way, facing Zack Greinke at Miller Park is anything but favorable for opposing hitters.

Greinke won again at home Sunday, allowing just one run and striking out six as the Milwaukee Brewers smashed the Twins 16-4. It was Greinke’s 18th straight win in a home decision, with the last 14 coming since he arrived in Milwaukee from Kansas City.

With the win, Greinke became the first pitcher to win 18 straight home decisions since Kenny Rogers won 19 consecutive decisions at home with four different teams from 1997 to 2000.

Greinke and Rogers are two of the six pitchers with a win streak of at least 18 in home decisions in the live-ball era (since 1920). They’re joined by Roy Face, Frank Viola, Ray Kremer and Lefty Grove, who had two separate streaks of at least 18 wins in home decisions (18 from 1932-33, 20 from 1938-40).

Greinke hasn’t lost a home start since July 26, 2010, when he allowed eight runs over four innings in a 19-1 loss to the Twins.

Greinke wasn’t the only Brewer to make history Sunday. Jonathan Lucroy drove in seven runs, tying a franchise record. He joined Carlos Ruiz (May 2, 2012) as the only catchers to have at least seven RBI in a game in the last two seasons.

Elsewhere in the majors Sunday, Max Scherzer had a career-high 15 strikeouts, one shy of a Detroit Tigers franchise record, in a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Scherzer induced 26 swings-and-misses, the most by any pitcher this season and the most since Brandon Morrow had 26 on May 5, 2010 vs the Cleveland Indians.

Scherzer became the second AL pitcher to strike out at least 15 in seven or fewer innings in the last 90 years. Baltimore Orioles starter Mike Mussina struck out 15 in seven innings against the Boston Red Sox on September 24, 2000.

In other MLB action Sunday:

" Stephen Strasburg hit his first career home run and earned the win in the Washington Nationals 9-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Strasburg is now hitting .375 this season and has an extra-base hit in four of his last five games.

" Josh Beckett allowed one run on seven hits as the Red Sox beat the Philadelphia Phillies 5-1. Beckett has now won consecutive starts for the first time since August 2011 and has allowed one run in his last 14T innings.

" The Phillies fell to 1-5 in Cliff Lee’s starts this season after he allowed five runs, his most since July 2011, to the Red Sox. The Phillies were 22-10 in Lee’s 32 starts last season.

In his first start against the Pittsburgh Pirates since striking out 14 in his MLB debut, falling one shy of the MLB record for strikeouts in a debut, Stephen Strasburg fanned 13 in just 6 innings Thursday night.

Strasburg deftly mixed up his fastball and off-speed pitches against Pittsburgh, registering seven strikeouts with a fastball and holding Pirates hitters to one hit with six strikeouts in eight at-bats ending with off-speed pitches.

He also kept the ball away, with 52.4 percent of his pitches (54 of 103) over the outer part of the plate. The Pirates were hitless with five strikeouts in six at-bats ending with pitches away.

And while Strasburg fell one punch-out short of his career high, he did set a personal record with 20 pitches resulting in swings-and-misses.

Strasburg’s start Thursday was the 24th of his career, making him the fifth pitcher to strike out 13 or more hitters twice his first 25 career games in the divisional era and first since Kerry Wood in 1998.

Thursday was the fourth time in Strasburg’s career he struck out at least 10 batters in a game, the most such games by a Nationals pitcher since the franchise moved to Washington in 2005. He also became the first pitcher in the history of the Nationals or Expos to register 13 strikeouts in six of fewer innings.

Elsewhere in the majors Thursday:

• Josh Hamilton homered in his second game since tying an MLB record with 4 HR on Tuesday. Hamilton, who became the first player with 6 HR in a series since Hee Seop Choi in 2005 according to Elias, now has more HR since Monday than Jose Bautista, Alex Rodriguez, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols have all season.

• Josh Beckett allowed 7 runs in just 2⅓ innings as the Boston Red Sox lost to the Cleveland Indians. It was Beckett’s first start since 2008 in which he allowed at least 7 runs in fewer than 3 innings. Boston’s six straight losses at Fenway Park matches its longest home losing streak since losing 12 home games in a row in 1994.

• Elias tells us the Baltimore Orioles became the first AL team to open a game with back-to-back-to-back HR when Ryan Flaherty, J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis homered to start the bottom of the first inning. All five of the Orioles hits were HR Thursday, making Baltimore just the third team to have five or more hits with all hits being homers in the live-ball era (since 1920).

Stats & Info insights into this morning's top sports stories.

1. BULLS LOSE A LOT IN WIN: The NBA Playoffs began on Saturday with four games. The Chicago Bulls defeated the Philadelphia 76ers, 103-91. The win came at a heavy price. Derrick Rose suffered a torn ACL late in the fourth quarter and will miss the rest of the playoffs. The Bulls went 18-9 in the 27 regular-season games which Rose missed in 2011-12.

2. JAMES AND HEAT HAND KNICKS ANOTHER POSTSEASON LOSS: The Miami Heat defeated the New York Knicks, 100-67. LeBron James scored 23 of his 32 points in the first half to hand the Knicks their 11th consecutive playoff defeat. The NBA record for most consecutive playoff losses belongs to the Memphis Grizzlies, who lost 12 straight from 2004 to 2006.

3. DURANT CLUTCH AGAIN: The Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Dallas Mavericks, 99-98. Kevin Durant hit the game-winning jumper with 1.5 seconds left in regulation. It is his fourth game-winning field goal in the final five seconds in the last two seasons (playoffs included). That is most by any player in the NBA.

4. NFL DRAFT IS OVER: The 2012 NFL Draft concluded on Saturday. 42 players were drafted from SEC schools, one more than the Big Ten for most the draft picks by conference. It’s the sixth straight year the SEC has had the most selections.

5. KEMP HITS HEROIC HOMER: Matt Kemp hit a walk-off home run to give the Los Angeles Dodgers a 4-3 win over the Washington Nationals in 10 innings. It’s Kemp’s 11th home run this month, setting a Dodgers record for most in April. The game also featured the MLB debut of Bryce Harper. He went 1-3, with a double and RBI. Harper is the fourth teenager with an extra-base hit in his MLB debut since 1969.

6. BUSCH TAKES RICHMOND: Kyle Busch won the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Richmond. Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished second. It’s his seventh runner-up finish since his last Cup Series win on June 15, 2008 at Michigan. Earnhardt Jr.’s winless streak now stands at 138 races.

Don’t look now, but the Washington Nationals have zoomed to the top of the NL East following their 3-2, extra-inning win over the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday afternoon.

The Nationals improved to 5-2, their best start since moving to Washington, and also win their first home opener since 2008. This is just the second time in the last 15 seasons the franchise has won five of its first seven games. In 2001, the Montreal Expos were 6-1 after seven games.

The Nats took a 2-0 lead into the ninth inning but Brad Lidge blew the save, allowing two runs on two hits and two walks. Lidge had allowed just one run over his previous 16 appearances dating to August of last year.

The Nationals won it in the 10th inning thanks to a wild outing by Reds reliever Alfredo Simon. Simon hit Ryan Zimmerman to lead off the inning and Zimmerman eventually came around to score four batters later on Simon’s wild pitch with Roger Bernadina at the plate.

This was the Nationals’ fifth win on a game-ending wild pitch since moving to Washington in 2005. Entering Thursday, the Nats had lost their last six extra-inning games against the Reds and were 0-5 in one-run games versus Cincinnati over the last two season.

Gio Gonzalez got a no-decision but deserved the win, tossing seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and just two hits allowed.

Gonzalez had success going low as Reds hitters went 0-for-11 in at-bats ending with pitches down in the zone or below. Gonzalez also did a good job finishing off batters, allowing zero hits in 13 at-bats that reached a two-strike count.

Around The Diamond
• The Minnesota Twins came back from a six-run deficit against the Los Angeles Angels thanks to home runs from both Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. It was the first time that Morneau and Mauer homered in the same game since July 6, 2010.

• Matt Garza fell one out short of a shutout when he was pulled after 119 pitches in the ninth inning of the Chicago Cubs 8-0 win. Garza had his slider working, throwing 31 of them, as the Milwaukee Brewers were hitless including five strikeouts in nine at-bats ending with the pitch.

• The Detroit Tigers improved to 5-1 this season with a win over the Tampa Bay Rays. Austin Jackson scored a run and has now crossed home plate in all six games this season, the longest streak to start the season by a Tiger since Darrell Evans scored in the first eight games in 1986.

• Madison Bumgarner took a no-hitter into the sixth inning as the San Francisco Giants beat the Colorado Rockies 4-2. Bumgarner recorded a career-high 14 ground-ball outs (including a double play) with eight of them coming in at-bats ending in sliders.

Earlier today, the Washington Nationals and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman agreed to a six-year, $100 million contract extension. The contract reportedly includes an option for a seventh year that would keep Zimmerman in Washington through 2020, if exercised. There are several angles for potential analysis, centering around both the historical place of the contract as well as Zimmerman’s own performance.

Angle No. 1: The Contract

Zimmerman’s agreement with the Nationals immediately became the second-largest contract issued in franchise history, falling short only of the free-agent commitment the team made to outfielder Jayson Werth last offseason. When one considers the two years and $26 million that is remaining on his current contract, the Nationals owe Zimmerman $126 million through 2019. With the agreement, Zimmerman becomes one of just six players to be locked up through at least 2019, joining Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp.

The average annual value of the contract works out to $16.7 million, the second-most of any third baseman, behind only Alex Rodriguez, inching past the $16 million average of Adrian Beltre’s recent deal with the Texas Rangers. It is also the third-most lucrative extension signed by a player from the 2005 MLB draft class, behind only Tulowitzki and Braun.

All told, the Nationals have now committed $126 million to Zimmerman starting in 2012. That is the 10th-most money owed to any player in baseball by any team starting this upcoming season.

Angle No. 2: The Performance

Six full seasons into his MLB career, Zimmerman has produced several elite seasons, while also having several seasons marred by injury. There is little question that when he is healthy, he is capable of producing borderline MVP-caliber seasons.

Since the start of the 2006 season -- Zimmerman’s first full year in the majors -- he ranks 11th among all position players in Wins Above Replacement, ahead of such notable large-contract recipients as Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Reyes. He ranks third among third basemen in WAR, behind Rodriguez and David Wright. Much of that value is derived from his defense – according to Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved, Zimmerman ranks third among all position players since 2007 with 73 runs saved and has finished in the top three among third basemen in the category in four of the last five seasons.

He has also produced some of the greatest seasons in Nationals/Expos franchise history. His 2009 and 2010 seasons rank second and fifth, respectively, in franchise history, with his 2009 mark of 7.3 WAR ranking behind only Vladimir Guerrero's 2002 season (7.6) and tied with Tim Raines in 1985 and Gary Carter in 1984.

But while Zimmerman has displayed the ability to be an impact player at times, he’s struggled to do so consistently. 2011 was the second season in the last four that was noticeably impacted by injuries, as Zimmerman played in only 101 games. The injury issues may have had an impact on his performance; between 2009-10, he produced an average line of .299 BA, .893 OPS, 29 home runs and 96 RBI. In 2011, his OPS dropped nearly 100 points to .798, while he hit just 12 home runs. Specifically, Zimmerman has experienced a decline in his power output since 2009, with a corresponding increase in the rate at which he’s hitting balls on the ground.

Presumably, Zimmerman has provided the Nationals with everything they expected when they made him the fourth overall pick in the 2005 MLB draft, as he ranks first in the entire draft class in Wins Above Replacement to this point, ahead of the likes of Tulowitzki, Braun and Justin Upton. But the value of the extension will be based on Zimmerman’s ability to stay on the field and reverse the downward trend in his power output.

It also raises the question of what the Nationals plan to do with third basemen Anthony Rendon, the sixth overall pick from the 2011 draft, to whom Washington gave the ninth-highest major league contract in draft history. But that is an issue for another day. For now, the Nationals locked up the franchise’s best player through 2019 and did so at a total cost of less than they paid Jayson Werth last offseason.

ESPN Stats & Information continues its weekly stat-based roundup of notable moves from the past week.

Washington Nationals Sign Edwin Jackson
Last season Jackson posted an ERA of 3.79 despite ranking seventh in MLB in hits allowed. How unusual was that combination of run prevention and baserunners? He was the only qualifying pitcher in the majors with an ERA below 4.00 that also gave up at least 10 hits per nine innings pitched.

Jackson managed that feat by allowing an OPS of .869 with the bases empty and a .665 mark with runners on. That was the largest difference among all qualifying pitchers that had a higher OPS with the bases empty versus with runners on.

A 120-point spread in his BABIP allowed with nobody on base compared to all other plate appearances may explain part of that difference.

However, opponents didn't seem to hit the ball much harder versus Jackson in either situation.

According to video review by Inside Edge, batters hit the same percentage of "well-hit" balls (24%) against Jackson regardless of whether there were men on base or not.

So what can Nationals expect out of Jackson in 2012? Only four other pitchers since 2000 finished with an ERA under 4.00 while also giving up 10-plus hits per nine innings.

The good news is that one of those pitchers was Andy Pettitte in 2001, who went on to post a 3.27 ERA the following season and a 3.78 ERA over the final nine seasons of his career.

The bad news is that the other three pitchers were Carlos Silva (2005), Josh Towers (2005) and Aaron Cook (2008) – who combined for zero sub-4.00 ERA seasons following their unusual low-ERA/high-hit total year.
-- Katie Sharp

Cleveland Indians Sign Casey Kotchman
Kotchman, at least last season, fared better than what the Indians had at first base in 2011.

Kotchman upped his on-base percentage from .280 in 2010 to .378 in 2011, with a batting average on balls in play that improved from .229 to .335 and a walk rate that improved slightly.

Kotchman's BABIP went up because his number of ground ball hits nearly doubled, going from 30 to 58, though his ground balls hit only increased by 41 from the previous season.

Kotchman and Texas Rangers catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli led the majors with the largest on-base percentage jump (98 points) in the majors, among the nearly 150 players who had at least 400 plate appearances in each season.

Indians first basemen had an on-base percentage of .302 and .319 over the last two seasons, the latter ranking 23rd among the 30 major-league teams in 2011.

Defensively, the Indians two primary first basemen, Matt LaPorta and Carlos Santana combined for 69 Good Fielding Plays and 41 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 1,367 innings.

That's based on video review from Baseball Info Solutions, which watches and tags plays into more than 80 categories of good/bad. A good play for a first baseman might be something like scooping a throw out of the dirt. A misplay may be for something such as dropping a return throw from a teammate on a double-play attempt.

Kotchman had fewer Good Fielding Plays (55), but had less than half as many Defensive Misplays & Errors (20) in a similar number of innings (1,222).

Kotchman’s average of one Defensive Misplay & Error per 61 innings was third-best among major-league first basemen who played at least 900 innings (approximately 100 games) at first base.
-- Mark Simon

The Washington Nationals completed a rally Tuesday night in a fashion the franchise hadn't seen since their days as the Montreal Expos.

Trailing 5-1 in the bottom of the ninth inning to the Seattle Mariners, the Nationals responded with five runs, capped by a walk-off, three-run home run by Wilson Ramos. The walk-off home run was the first of Ramos' career.

It was the sixth time in Nationals franchise history they won a game in which they trailed by at least four runs in the ninth inning or later.

They last accomplished the feat on June 29, 1999 in a 6-5 win against the Atlanta Braves -- when they were the Montreal Expos.

The Nationals have won nine of their last 10 games and their .684 win percentage in June is third-best in baseball this season.

The walk-off win was Washington's fourth of the season, and their comeback from a five-run deficit (they trailed 5-0 entering the sixth inning) tied their largest comeback win of the season.

But it wasn’t the only walk-off win Tuesday.

Mitch Moreland hit his first career walk-off home run in the Texas Rangers' 5-4 win against the Houston Astros. The Rangers won for the 12th time in their last 14 games.

It was Moreland's second straight game with a home run and the first walk-off home run by a Ranger this season. It's also the first walk-off HR by a Rangers player not named Nelson Cruz since Ian Kinsler did it on July 19, 2009.

As the Nationals and Rangers continued their winning ways of late, another team finally ended, at least in the interim, its run of futility.

The Florida Marlins snapped a franchise-record 11-game losing streak, getting their second win in June, 5-2 against the Los Angeles Angels.

Marlins interim manager Jack McKeon earned his first win since taking the reins. The 80-year-old McKeon hadn’t won a game since October 2, 2005, when Hanley Ramirez (who started fourth in the batting order for the first time in his career) was playing his second career game -- for the Red Sox.

-- Gregg Found and Nate Jones contributed to this report

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher David Price just missed out on the complete-game win against the Toronto Blue Jays, striking out 10 in 8 2/3 innings in Thursday's 3-1 win.

Ninety-nine of Price's 118 pitches were fastballs (83.9 percent), finishing nine of his strikeouts with his heater.

Thursday was merely a continuation of what Price has done to Toronto in his career, improving to 8-0 in nine career starts against Toronto.

The Elias Sports Bureau added that only one active American League pitcher has as many as eight wins without a loss (in starts) against an opposing team: Jon Lester (14-0 in starts against the Baltimore Orioles).

Price has four career 10-strikeout games, and improved to 19-7 career at home.

BERKMAN CONTINUES TO RAKE
Lance Berkman continued his tear to begin the season, hitting a go-ahead three-run home run in the St. Louis Cardinals' 6-3 win against the Florida Marlins.

The home run was Berkman's 10th of the season, and it comes in his 29th game. Last season, it took Berkman 70 games to hit his 10th home run.

This is the third-fastest Berkman has reached 10 home runs in a season; he got there in 20 games in 2002 and 24 games in 2006.

DOC HALLADAY CONTINUES NATIONAL DOMINANCE
Roy Halladay struck out 10 in seven innings of work, helping the Philadelphia Phillies to a 7-3 victory against the Washington Nationals.

Halladay has simply dominated the Nationals in his career, moving his record to 10-1 with a 2.01 ERA against the Nationals.

His 32 strikeouts in his past three starts are the most in any three-start span of his career, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

All the while, Halladay avoided issuing any free passes, notching his third 10-strikeout, no-walk game in the past two years. Only Cliff Lee has as many such games in that same span.

LANNAN REMAINS WINLESS AGAINST THE PHILS
While Halladay was tossing a gem, his counterpart, John Lannan, continued to struggle against Philadelphia.

Lannan fell to 0-10 with a 6.44 ERA in 13 career starts against the Phillies.

It wasn't the only streak Lannan "managed" to keep alive. With his peg of Shane Victorino, Lannan has now hit a Phillies batter in four consecutive starts.

CLEVELAND STILL ROCKING
The Cleveland Indians won 4-3 in 12 innings against the Oakland Athletics, improving to 21-9 for the season.

It's tied for their best 30-game start to a season in franchise history, which they've done seven other times prior to this season.

In five of the seven instances they made the playoffs, twice winning the World Series.

Back-to-back home runs by Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez in the top of the first inning were only the start of the action at the Great American Ball Park on Opening Day. Even after Weeks and Gomez made the Milwaukee Brewers the first team to start a season with consecutive home runs since the 1969 Cincinnati Reds, there was still plenty of history to be made Thursday.

Trailing 6-3 entering the bottom of the ninth, Ramon Hernandez’s third career walk-off home run capped the Reds four-run rally and gave Cincinnati its third straight win over the Brewers. The Elias Sports Bureau says Hernandez is the first catcher with a walk-off homer in his team’s first game of the season since Gary Carter’s solo home run in the bottom of the 10th inning gave the New York Mets a 6-5 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on April 9, 1985.

Late rallies are nothing new to the Reds, who finished third in the majors with 45 come-from-behind wins in 2010. But even the biggest Reds fan couldn’t have been confident entering the bottom of the ninth facing a three-run deficit. Historical data shows that teams trailing by three runs entering the bottom of the ninth inning win only 5.4% of the time. Don’t tell that to the Reds, who are now 1-0 for the first time since 2007.

Elsewhere in the majors Thursday:

• Albert Pujols’ 2011 season got off to the worst start possible as he went 0-5 and grounded into a career-high three double plays against the San Diego Padres. Pujols is the first player in MLB history to ground into three double plays on Opening Day, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He’s also the first player to go 0-5 with three or more GIDP in any game since Miguel Tejada on September 10, 2009.

• The New York Yankees won their 11th straight Opening Day game when playing at home, a streak that dates back to 1986. That ties an MLB record also held by the New York Mets, who won 11 straight Opening Day games at home from 1971-89.

• Jason Heyward became the second player ever to homer on Opening Day in each of his first two seasons as the Atlanta Braves blanked the Washington Nationals 2-0. The Elias Sports Bureau tells us Heyward joined Kaz Matsui, who did it in 2004 and 2005.

The first six of the 2,430 scheduled MLB games this season will be played on Thursday. Here’s one thing you need to know about each:

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees, 1 ET on ESPN
The Yankees have won the last 10 times they have played an Opening Day game at home. Their last loss was in 1982 vs the Chicago White Sox, when Ron LeFlore’s single in the top of the 12th provided Chicago’s margin of victory. The only team in MLB history to have a longer win streak in Opening Day games played at home is the New York Mets 11-game streak from 1971-89.

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, 1:05 ET
Hopefully the Nationals pitching staff has an easier time with the Braves lineup than the Chicago Cubs did on Opening Day last season. Atlanta blasted the Cubs 16-5 on Opening Day last year behind five RBI from Yunel Escobar and four from Jason Heyward. The Braves 16 runs tied the most scored by a team on Opening Day over the last 30 seasons.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, 2:10 ET
Which team will draw first blood in what could be the most competitive division in the majors in 2011? AccuScore ran 10,000 computer simulations of the 2011 season, with the Reds coming out on top of the NL Central 37.7% of the time. But Cincinnati just edged out the Cardinals (29.2%) and Brewers (26.1%) in the only division that had three different teams win the division in more than 25% of simulations.

Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, 4:10 ET
The Royals will look to get 2011 started on the right foot against the Angels, but history is not on Kansas City’s side. Among current MLB franchises, the Royals have the worst winning percentage on Opening Day (35.7%) of any club. Kansas City is 15-27 all-time in its first game of the season.

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, 4 ET on ESPN
Will Albert Pujols again own Opening Day? Last year against the Reds, Pujols homered twice, recorded four hits and scored four runs in the Cardinals 11-6 win on Opening Day. He became the third player in MLB history with two HR, four hits and four runs in a team’s opener, joining Dmitri Young (2005) and Xavier Nady (2008). Pujols is one of seven players in the live-ball era (since 1920) with two games with two home runs on Opening Day. The others are Adam Dunn, Juan Gonzalez, Eddie Mathews, Raul Mondesi, Xavier Nady and Joe Torre.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, 8 ET on ESPN
The Giants road to a repeat starts tonight in Los Angeles. The odds are against San Francisco. Only three NL teams have repeated as World Series champions, and just one in the last 85 years (1975-76 Reds). The Giants won the World Series in 7.6% of AccuScore’s simulations of the 2011 season, trailing only the Phillies (15.7%), Red Sox (10.7%) and Rangers (8.0).

Matt Capps v. Jon Rauch

The Twins went from one former Nationals reliever to another for their closer role, acquiring Matt Capps from the Nationals on Thursday. Both pitchers have more than 20 saves, but Capps’ stats show he gets more strikeouts, more swings and misses and more batters to go out of the strike zone. Also, almost half of the balls put in play against Capps are grounders, a much better rate than Rauch.



Capps’ First Pitch Importance

Like most pitchers, Matt Capps sets the tone of the at-bat with his first pitch. Unlike most pitchers, he’s usually better off if it’s a ball. Hitters are actually performing worse against Capps this season when he starts them off by missing the strike zone.