Stats & Info: Zach Duke


US Presswire/Jeff HanischFrancisco Cordero's 194 saves since 2007 are the most in the majors.

Stats & Information's weekly roundup of notable baseball moves:

Toronto Blue Jays sign pitcher Francisco Cordero to one-year contract
Three notes on the changes related to Cordero’s performance over the last two seasons.

1-- Cordero’s average fastball velocity dropped from 94.3 miles-per-hour in 2010 to 92.6 in 2011. Fastballs and sinkers, which made up more than two-thirds of his pitches in 2010, represented 44 percent of his pitches in 2011.

2-- Cordero’s ground ball rate increased from 42 percent in 2010 to 48 percent in 2011. His opponents’ batting average on ground balls dropped 100 points, from .250 to .150 in that span. That .150 ranked sixth-best in the majors among those who induced at least 75 ground balls in 2011.

3-- Our advanced hit location data shows Cordero’s batting average made the biggest drop on ground balls hit between 15 degrees to the right and 15 degrees to the left of second base (in other words, the middle of the field).

The chart on the right shows the difference, as well as an increase in plays made by Reds shortstops.
--Mark Simon

Blue Jays sign infielder Omar Vizquel
to minor league contract

If Vizquel makes the major-league roster, he will be chasing two milestones, both with the same number -- 3,000.

Vizquel has 2,841 hits, leaving him 159 away from becoming the 29th player with 3,000 hits. Vizquel has 137 hits over the last two seasons.

Vizquel could be the fourth player of Hispanic heritage in the 3,000-hit club, joining Roberto Clemente, Rod Carew, and Rafael Palmeiro.

Another milestone would occur if Vizquel (2,908 games played) plays in 92 games. He would become the ninth player in major league history to play in 3,000 games. Vizquel who turns 45 on April 24, played in 108 and 58 games the last two seasons.

Both the active leader and the No. 2 man in sacrifice bunts signed this week. Vizquel has 255 sacrifices, 111 more than new Phillies free agent signee Juan Pierre.

Thirty players who played in the majors last season were born after Vizquel made his major league debut on April 3, 1989, including Vizquel’s infield mate, Brett Lawrie.
--Zachary Singer/Kevin Gibson

Other moves of note
Quick hits on other signings from the past week-- players who share a theme of being given opportunity despite recent struggles.

New Cincinnati Reds pitcher Jeff Francis is 14-32 in four seasons since starting Game 1 of the 2007 World Series (he was 17-9 that season). His .304 winning percentage is third-worst among the 162 pitchers who have made at least 50 starts in that span.

New Houston Astros pitcher Zach Duke is 40-72 over the last six seasons. His .357 winning percentage is the worst among the 105 pitchers who made at least 100 starts in that span. Duke was 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 2005.

New San Francisco Giants shortstop Ryan Theriot has dealt with injuries and not fared well via advanced defensive metrics over the last two seasons. His -17 Defensive Runs Saved (a stat that measures a shortstop’s effectiveness of turning batted balls into outs and converting double plays) in 1,001 innings are tied for fourth-worst among shortstops in that span.
--Mark Simon

AP Photo/Kathy Willens
A move from catcher to DH is coming for Victor Martinez as part of his signing with the Detroit Tigers.


Earlier this week, we took a look at the Tigers signing of Victor Martinez and how his performance compared to that of Tigers catchers. But recent comments from general manager Dave Dombrowski indicate that he'll be used primarily as a DH.

That makes sense. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Martinez has cost his teams 47 runs combined during his career. In 2010, he allowed 99 stolen bases, while throwing out just 21 percent of base runners.

In the last three seasons, the Tigers production from their DHs has been limited, just as it has been from their catchers. In 2008 and 2009, their Wins Above Replacement (based on a weighted version of on-base average) totaled 0.3 and though that number jumped to 1.9 in 2010, it ranked about average (sixth-best) in the American League.

Over the last three seasons, Tigers DHs rank next-to-last in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. So Martinez will be a huge upgrade there and his defense is a non-factor.

If Martinez isn’t catching who is? Due to Gerald Laird’s inability to hit (.207 BA, .263 OBP in 2010), highly-praised second-year man Alex Avila should see more time.

The most noteworthy stat for him in 2010: He threw out 32 percent of runners attempting to steal, fifth-best among the 31 players who caught 250 or more innings in 2010.
--Derek Czenczelewski

Huff winded by season's end?
While Aubrey Huff's 2010 season was very good, he regressed in the latter part of the year, suggesting the San Francisco Giants may have committed $22 million for two years on the basis of a very good first four months, for a team that happened to win the World Series.

What caused it?

Huff's biggest issue at the end of last season was that he had a lot of trouble with breaking pitches thrown by left-handers. The drop-offs were stark across Huff's entire stat line. From April-July, he swung and missed at about one of every four breaking pitches from a lefty. The rest of the season, he missed at one of every three.

When Huff made contact, the results were weak. His slugging percentage against those pitches from August 1 on was .278, nearly a 400-point drop from earlier in the year.

But the good version of Huff showed up again at just the right time. Huff got the biggest hit of the season against a slider from Braves' left-hander Mike Dunn, singling with two outs in the ninth inning to tie Game 3 of the NLDS. Turns out it may have been worth more than just a postseason win.
--Justin Havens and Mark Simon

Garland's durability covers potential issue
Jon Garland's ability to eat innings continues to allow him to find work, his latest employment coming from a one-year contract from the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, Garland continues to walk a very fine line. Among pitchers with at least 700 innings over the last four seasons, Garland's strikeout-to-walk rate of 1.64 is third-worst in baseball.

The Dodgers did pick up a durable pitcher, one who had a 1.71 ERA in Dodgers Stadium in three starts there in 2009. Garland and Chicago White Sox starter Mark Buehrle are the only two pitchers to throw 190 innings or more in each of the last nine seasons.
--Justin Havens

Put Down Your Dukes
While Garland may have pitched better than his peripheral numbers, new Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zach Duke pitched worse. The traditional stats say that Duke ranked last in 2010 among NL pitchers in ERA, opponents batting average and OPS.

However, a closer look at his peripherals (strikeout/walk rate, groundball rate, contact percentage, chase percentage, first-pitch strike percentage) reveal that he was a similar pitcher to the one that had a 4.06 ERA in 2009.

What changed from 2009 to 2010 that caused an ERA spike?

A .347 BABIP that was the highest in the NL and 51 points higher than his 2009 BABIP did significant damage. Duke had the fourth-highest home run rate (1.42), his percentage of flyballs that were home runs was 13.7, highest in the NL and significantly higher than his career rate of 10 percent.

Perhaps the most telling stat that indicates Duke can only improve is his 2010 xFIP of 4.48 –- an ERA-like metric based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run per flyball rate –- that was not far from his career mark of 4.40 and the 4.31 he posted in 2009.
--Katie Sharp

1st Pitch: Pitchers vs 7-8-9 hitters

June, 2, 2010
6/02/10
12:09
PM ET
Quick Hits: One of the simple keys to success for a pitcher is quickly retiring the bottom third of the order. So it should come as no surprise that the pitchers who struggle with 7-8-9 hitters are having disappointing seasons.
  • Rich Harden has allowed a .464 opponents on-base percentage to 7-8-9 hitters this season, worst in the majors.
  • The bottom third of the order has a 1.060 OPS against Josh Beckett this season.
  • Charlie Morton has allowed a league-worst .389 BA and 1.107 OPS against 7-8-9 hitters.
  • Ervin Santana has allowed a league-high six home runs to the bottom third of the order. Mark Buehrle is right behind him with five.
  • As a team the Mets have allowed a .356 OBP to 7-8-9 hitters, led by John Maine (.431), Oliver Perez (.404), Mike Pelfrey (.400) and Jonathan Niese (.400).
Today’s Trivia: Today is the 20th anniversary of Randy Johnson’s first no-hitter. Which current GM was in the Tigers starting lineup in that game?

Today’s Leaderboard: Shawn Marcum has bounced back after missing the entire 2008 season. A key reason for his success has been his ability to shutdown the bottom of the order. He’s allowed 7-8-9 hitters to reach base just 17.4 percent of the time, the lowest average in the majors.

Key Matchups: Denard Span is one of the few lefties that has Cliff Lee’s number. In his career against Lee, Span is batting .462 (6-13) with a .522 on-base percentage.

Zach Duke is struggling and the Cubs may be the last team he wants to face right now. The Cubs current roster is batting a collective .357 in their careers against Duke. Alfonso Soriano (.417 BA, 2 HR) has done the most damage. Even today’s starter for the Cubs, Carlos Zambrano, is 3-6 in his career against Duke.

Trivia Answer: White Sox GM Kenny Williams was starting in centerfield and batting 9th.

The Closer: Strange day indeed

May, 17, 2010
5/17/10
1:17
AM ET
Sunday proves once again why baseball is such a great game. You'll see things you either have never seen or haven't seen in some time. Here are just a few of the many rarities that occurred across MLB on Sunday:

Mariano Rivera
He allowed a grand slam in a home game for the first time since 1995 against the Athletics (Geronimo Berroa). His streak of 51 straight saves at home comes to an end and he also walked a runner with the bases loaded for the first time since 2005.

Marlins Sweep Mets
It was just the second time in team history in which the Marlins swept a four-game series from their division rivals and the first time since 2004 in New York.

Jake Westbrook Throws a Complete Game?
He allowed one run in a complete game for the first time since August 9, 2006. He's won consecutive starts for the first time since 2007.

Cardinals out, Reds in
The Reds defeated the Cardinals Sunday to move into first place. That's somewhere Cincinnati hasn't been this late into a season since the 2006 season.

Be Proud of Prado
Martin Prado had four hits, two of which were homers in the Braves' 13-1 thumping of the Diamondbacks. He became the first Braves leadoff hitter to have two homers and four hits in a single game since Felipe Alou on April 26, 1966, against the Giants.

Cliff Lee
He threw a complete game with 10 strikeouts in a hard-luck loss to the Rays. He's the first Mariners pitcher with 10 strikeouts in a complete-game loss since Freddy Garcia on August 7, 1999. But while it was rare in recent years, that was something Randy Johnson did eight times with the Mariners.

Wade LeBlanc
Another ho-hum strong start from a Padres pitcher. LeBlanc unfortunately took the loss when he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP against the Dodgers. But he did extend his streak of starts with 2 ER or fewer to 6 straight from the start of the season. That’s the longest streak by a Padres pitcher to begin a year since Jake Peavy had a team-record 10 straight to start the 2004 season.

You Complete Me

Five pitchers threw complete games on Sunday (Lee, Westbrook, Joel Pineiro, Brett Myers and Bronson Arroyo). Sounds rare right? Actually it happened on July 10, 2009, when Jeff Niemann, Dan Haren, Zach Duke, Arroyo and Jonathan Sanchez did so. Sanchez threw a no-hitter that day.

1st pitch: Crazy ratios after three weeks

April, 26, 2010
4/26/10
2:26
PM ET
Today’s Trivia: On Sunday, Joakim Soria became the all-time saves leader among pitchers born in Mexico? Whose record did Soria break?

Quick Hits: Let’s take a look at some of the more stunning ratios as we hit the three-week point of the young season.

* Brian McCann has 16 walks and only four strikeouts. Rather amazing for a player who has never had more walks than strikeouts, and had only 49 walks compared to 83 strikeouts last season.

* David Eckstein only has fanned once in 63 plate appearances. No qualifying player last decade had a PA per K greater than 30.0. In fact, the last to do so was Tony Gwynn in 1995.

* A ridiculous 79 percent of Kelly Johnson’s hits have been for extra bases. His career high is just 46 percent. Meanwhile, all 16 of Juan Pierre’s hits have been singles.

* According to Baseball-Reference.com, 33 percent of the fly balls hit by Travis Snider have been infield flies.

* With a 4.33 groundout to air out ratio, Derek Jeter is on track to lead the majors in that category for the second straight year.

* Ryan Rowland-Smith has allowed more home runs (six) than he has strikeouts (five), and has the worst strikeout percentage in the majors.

* Of all the fly balls to the outfield against Cole Hamels, 20.6 percent have been home runs, easily the highest percentage in the majors.

* Carlos Silva has a 0.63 WHIP. Last season, he allowed 0.73 extra-base hits per inning pitched.

* Carl Pavano has a 17-to-1 K-BB ratio. Last season, he had three walks in his first recorded inning of work.

* The Astros pitching staff surprisingly leads the majors with a 2.62 K-BB ratio.

* The Giants, Padres, and White Sox have more strikeouts than hits allowed.

* Of the hits allowed by the Pirates, 45 percent have gone for extra bases. Meanwhile, it’s just 25 percent for the Tigers, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

Today’s Leaderboard: The Indians have struck out only 90 batters in 18 games, but have walked 77. That is just 1.17 strikeouts for every walk. Over the last 20 years, the worst K-BB ratio belonged to the 1995 Brewers at 1.16. Last decade, only the 2000 Angels (1.27) had a K-BB ratio below 1.3.

Key Matchups: One way to know if Vernon Wells is really back? If he hits Josh Beckett like it is 2006. That was the last year Wells made an All-Star team, and that honor was largely courtesy of Josh Beckett and the Red Sox. In his first 10 games of 2006 against Boston, Wells hit eight home runs. Four of those came off Beckett. However, Wells is just 3-for-18 off of the right-hander since.

Zach Duke is 0-5 with a 7.38 ERA at Miller Park, as the Pirates have lost 21 straight there. That’s the longest road losing streak against a single opponent in Pirates history. Duke’s head-to-head matchups with Corey Hart are the complete opposite of what you’d expect. Hart is a .444 career hitter in Pittsburgh against Duke, but just .150 at home.

Trivia Answer: Aurelio Lopez had 93 saves over an 11-year career that ended in 1987. Considering there have been 68 Mexico-born pitchers in MLB history, Soria’s total is rather small for a “save king.” Countries that can boast a pitcher born there with more saves: Germany (Craig Lefferts, 101), Vietnam (Danny Graves, 182), and Japan (Kazuhiro Sasaki, 129).

Your 2010 Opening Day starters

March, 29, 2010
3/29/10
5:34
PM ET

Starting Off On The Right Foot... er, Arm


Let's just admit it, Opening Day is fun. It's a new season filled with new players, new storylines, new hope, a new stadium or two, over 2,400 games waiting to be contested. Every team is tied for first place. It's not just fun for the fans, it's fun for the players too. One of the biggest honors for a pitcher is to be named a team's opening-day starter. It's usually the staff's "ace", the one who will take those hopes on his shoulders - literally- and start a new chapter. Start that run to the championship (you know, the one that every team says they're really going to make this year). And over the years, it's become a great privilege to throw the first ball of the season.


It's also probably the last time this season you'll see so much talent on display on the same day. Aside from NL wins (Adam Wainwright), both leagues' leaders in every category below will be pitching on Monday. (As an added bonus, Zach Duke also led the National League in losses.)


And there will be some new faces, too. A full third of this season's opening-day starters-- including surprises like Zack Greinke ("he's never started an opener?") and Vicente Padilla ("he's starting the opener?")-- will be getting that nod for the first time. Two (Roy Halladay and Jon Garland) will be making their first appearance for a new team. Garland will actually face one of his staff-mates from last season, Dan Haren, as the Padres travel to Arizona.


Incidentally, Tom Seaver holds the all-time record for most opening-day starts (16, including 12 straight from 1968-79). The leaders on this year's list are only halfway there.


Did you know: According to Baseball Almanac, the AL team that's won the highest percentage of its openers is Toronto (25 of 33, 76%). The NL team with the best opening-day record-- really-- is the New York Mets (60%). It's those other 161 games that have been a problem in Flushing recently.

One2Watch4: Padres P Clayton Richard

March, 14, 2010
3/14/10
8:09
AM ET
When the Padres traded Jake Peavy – the face of their franchise - in July, the team immediately put pressure on the players it received in return.

The quickest payoff of the deal for the Padres is left-handed pitcher Clayton Richard. The 26-year-old is penciled in as San Diego’s fourth starter this season (behind Chris Young, Kevin Correia and Jon Garland) after a very respectable final two months of 2009.

Richard made 12 appearances for the Padres – all starts – and compiled a 5-2 record and 4.08 ERA. Where Richard excelled the most was PETCO Park, as he posted a 4-0 mark and 2.00 ERA in six starts. Breaking down the numbers further, he held opposing hitters to a paltry .254 slugging percentage at PETCO – good for sixth-lowest among NL pitchers with at least three starts in a specific park.

One of the keys to Richard’s early success is his ability to get ground balls. His career groundball/flyball ratio is 1.00 – significantly better than the MLB average of 0.78 over the past two seasons. Richard’s number even improved a little with the Padres, jumping up to 1.07. Here is where Richard ranked in the category among NL starters 26 or younger with at least 50 IP last season.

Highest Groundball/Flyball Ratio by NL Starters, 2009
26 Years Old or Younger, Min. 50 IP

Age GB/FB ratio
Mitchell Boggs, STL 25 1.25
Burke Badenhop, FLA 26 1.24
Ubaldo Jimenez, COL 25 1.16
John Lannan, WSH 25 1.13
Clayton Richard, SD 25 1.07

That number was better than many pitchers known for their ability to induce grounders – such as Mike Pelfrey (1.06), Adam Wainwright (1.04), Josh Johnson (1.00), Jeff Suppan (0.98) and Zach Duke (0.94).

Here’s one final nugget that Padres fans can get excited about:

Baseball-reference.com compares players’ statistics at similar ages throughout the sport’s history. Through the age of 25, who is Clayton Richard’s most similar pitcher? None other than Lefty Grove!

That alone makes Richard One2Watch4 in 2010.
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