Stats & Info: Zack Greinke

Greinke extends historic home streak

May, 20, 2012
May 20
6:30
PM ET
Zack Greinke
Greinke
No team could use a stretch of favorable pitching matchups more than the Minnesota Twins, who entered Sunday with the worst record in the majors at 14-26. But, as teams far better than the Twins have learned the hard way, facing Zack Greinke at Miller Park is anything but favorable for opposing hitters.

Greinke won again at home Sunday, allowing just one run and striking out six as the Milwaukee Brewers smashed the Twins 16-4. It was Greinke’s 18th straight win in a home decision, with the last 14 coming since he arrived in Milwaukee from Kansas City.

With the win, Greinke became the first pitcher to win 18 straight home decisions since Kenny Rogers won 19 consecutive decisions at home with four different teams from 1997 to 2000.

Greinke and Rogers are two of the six pitchers with a win streak of at least 18 in home decisions in the live-ball era (since 1920). They’re joined by Roy Face, Frank Viola, Ray Kremer and Lefty Grove, who had two separate streaks of at least 18 wins in home decisions (18 from 1932-33, 20 from 1938-40).

Greinke hasn’t lost a home start since July 26, 2010, when he allowed eight runs over four innings in a 19-1 loss to the Twins.

Greinke wasn’t the only Brewer to make history Sunday. Jonathan Lucroy drove in seven runs, tying a franchise record. He joined Carlos Ruiz (May 2, 2012) as the only catchers to have at least seven RBI in a game in the last two seasons.

Elsewhere in the majors Sunday, Max Scherzer had a career-high 15 strikeouts, one shy of a Detroit Tigers franchise record, in a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Scherzer induced 26 swings-and-misses, the most by any pitcher this season and the most since Brandon Morrow had 26 on May 5, 2010 vs the Cleveland Indians.

Scherzer became the second AL pitcher to strike out at least 15 in seven or fewer innings in the last 90 years. Baltimore Orioles starter Mike Mussina struck out 15 in seven innings against the Boston Red Sox on September 24, 2000.

In other MLB action Sunday:

" Stephen Strasburg hit his first career home run and earned the win in the Washington Nationals 9-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Strasburg is now hitting .375 this season and has an extra-base hit in four of his last five games.

" Josh Beckett allowed one run on seven hits as the Red Sox beat the Philadelphia Phillies 5-1. Beckett has now won consecutive starts for the first time since August 2011 and has allowed one run in his last 14T innings.

" The Phillies fell to 1-5 in Cliff Lee’s starts this season after he allowed five runs, his most since July 2011, to the Red Sox. The Phillies were 22-10 in Lee’s 32 starts last season.

Broxton could be right at home in KC 'pen

November, 30, 2011
11/30/11
10:38
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As the saying goes, a team can never have enough pitching. Specific to the Kansas City Royals, it’s relief pitching. The team came to an agreement with former Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton on a 1-year, $4 million deal earlier this week. No team in baseball has the collection of power arms in the bullpen that the Royals have assembled and if Broxton can return to the form that made him arguably the best reliever in the game, the team could be looking at its best bullpen in 20 years.

In 2009, Broxton established himself as quite possibly the best reliever in the National League. He posted a 2.61 ERA that actually belied how effective he was, as his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) mark was 1.97, the best in the National League among relievers with at least 50 innings pitched. His 2.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) also ranked 1st among relievers. From 2006 to 2009, working both as a middle reliever and closer, Broxton compiled 398 strikeouts in 303 1/3 innings pitched, culminating in 114 strikeouts in 76 innings in 2009.

His performance has rapidly deteriorated since that point, however. Everything about Broxton’s performance has been headed in the wrong direction – his strikeout rate has dropped from 30.1 percent to 23.2 to 18.2 from 2009 to 2011, while his walk rate has jumped from 14.0 percent to 18.2 over the same span. The rate at which he was surrendering line drives also spiked, going from 16.1 percent in 2009 to more than double that in 2011 – 32.6. In fact, among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched, that line drive rate was the 3rd-worst in baseball.

Clearly, the Royals are buying low on Broxton in hopes he’ll return to his dominant form of 2009. Part of what made Broxton so effective was his average fastball velocity, which sat at 97.6 in 2009 before dropping to 95.3 and 94.0 the last two seasons. If he can regain his previous form, he’ll fit right in with a Royals bullpen that featured some of the hardest-throwing arms in the big leagues. Among AL relievers who threw at least 200 pitches in 2011, the Royals had 4 of the top 18 according to average fastball velocity – Jeremy Jeffress (3rd, 96.8), Blake Wood (8th, 95.5), Aaron Crow (17th, 94.9) and Greg Holland (18th, 94.9).

That group does not even include established closer Joakim Soria or diminutive lefty Tim Collins, who ranked 5th among AL left-handed relivers in average fastball velocity in 2011 at 92.3. A vast majority of these arms have been acquired under the regime of GM Dayton Moore – Holland in the 2007 draft, Crow in the 2009 draft, Jeffress in the Zack Greinke trade with the Milwaukee Brewers and Collins in a 2010 trade with the Atlanta Braves.

It is this collection of high-upside, hard-throwing bullpen arms that helped the Royals to post its best relief season – by ERA – in the Wild Card era. The team’s 3.74 bullpen ERA was its best since 1992 and only the 5th time since 1990 that it’s been under 4.00. While Broxton may never return to his previously dominant form, it’s yet another example of the Royals front office adding a low-cost, high-upside, high-velocity reliever a move that, if it works, could lead the Royals to their first consecutive seasons with bullpen ERAs below 4.00 since they did so three consecutive seasons from 1988-90 and could lead Broxton to a significantly larger payday after 2012.
The St. Louis Cardinals beat the Milwaukee Brewers 7-1 in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead in the NLCS, thanks to a strong effort from the Cardinals bullpen and four costly errors by the Brewers defense.

Jaime Garcia allowed four hits and no runs in his first four innings, but couldn’t make it through the fifth when he gave up three singles and a run scored with two outs.

For that near-winning effort, Garcia became the first starting pitcher in postseason history to pitch 4⅔ innings, allow one run or fewer and be in position for a win, but be pulled from the game.

With the early hook of Garcia by Tony LaRussa, no Cardinals starter has gotten an out in the sixth inning in the NLCS. If the Cardinals are able to win the series, it would be a historic event given the failure of their starting rotation to go deep into games.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has won a postseason series in which its starters did not pitch more than five innings in any of the first five games.

The Brewers, who had not committed four errors in any game since May 2008, became the third team to have four errors in a NLCS game. The other teams were the 1974 Dodgers vs Pirates (5 errors) and the 2001 Braves vs Diamondbacks (4 errors).

Zack Greinke was the on the mound for three of the four errors, which led to three unearned runs and five runs total in 5⅔ innings. During the regular season, he allowed just nine unearned runs, but seven of them came in his 13 road starts.

Greinke’s ERA rose to 6.48 in this postseason following the game. If he doesn’t pitch again, he’ll own the second-highest ERA in a single postseason (min. 15 IP) by a pitcher that had previously won the Cy Young Award, according to Elias.

The series now shifts to Milwaukee for Game 6 on Sunday. Brewers fans, however, have a reason to be optimistic despite their team being down 3-2 in the series.

Milwaukee is 5-1 in postseason elimination games at home, which is tied for the second-best record in such games in the Divisional Era (min. 3 games), according to Elias.

Cardinals fans can’t stock the refrigerator with celebratory beverages yet, although they need one win to reach the World Series. The Redbirds have lost their last four Game 6’s on the road dating back to the 1985 World Series. The only team to match that streak is the Giants franchise from 1929 to 2002.
The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals try to take control of the NLCS Friday in St. Louis with the series tied at two apiece. Four previous times the Cardinals have been tied 2-2 in the NLCS (1985, 1987, 2004, 2006). All four times they won the series and advanced to the World Series. The Brewers have only been in one previous best-of-seven series that was tied at two games, the 1982 World Series, which they lost in seven games to the Cardinals despite winning Game 5.

On the Mound
This is a rematch of the starting pitchers for Game 1 of this series – Zack Greinke and Jaime Garcia.

Greinke is making his third career postseason start. In the Game 1 start of this series, he went six innings while allowing six earned runs, but still earned the win. In fact, Greinke probably wishes this start was at home since he’s 12-0 in Miller Park this season (regular and postseason combined).

Greinke is 5-3 with a 4.41 ERA in eight career starts against the Cardinals (including postseason).

Garcia is also making his third career postseason start. He enters 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA, which includes allowing six earned runs in four innings in Game 1 against Milwaukee.

Garcia - who’s 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers - has struggled after a promising start to the season. Garcia began the year 5-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his first 10 starts, but since then, he’s only 8-9 with a 4.62 ERA.

Players to Watch
Albert Pujols is 8-for-15 (.533) with six RBI in this series and David Freese is 8-for-16 (.500) with six runs batted in. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, they are the first pair of teammates in major-league history to each bat at least .500 with six or more RBIs through their team's first four games of a postseason series.

Ryan Braun
Braun
Can the Cardinals slow down Ryan Braun? He has nine RBI this postseason. Only Cecil Cooper had more in a single postseason for the Brewers, with 10 in 1982. Braun also has reached base safely in the first inning in each of his last eight postseason games. That's the longest streak in MLB history, surpassing the mark he shared with Gary Sheffield for the 1997 Marlins. With 21 hits in his first 50 postseason at-bats, he is the first player since Mike Stanley (1995-1999) to accomplish that feat. Six other players did it prior to Stanley.

Stat of the Game
This is the third best-of-seven postseason series of Tony La Russa's managerial career that was tied 2-2 through four games. According to Elias, his team won each of the previous two such series in seven games: the 2004 NLCS against the Houston Astros and the 2006 NLCS vs. the New York Mets.
Zack Greinke
Greinke
Zack Greinke made waves with his comments regarding St. Louis Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter heading into Game 1 of the 2011 NLCS.

The Milwaukee Brewers pitcher will have a chance to back those words up at Miller Park, a place he has not tasted defeat since being acquired by the team this offseason.

Greinke went 11-0 at home this season. You have to go al the way back to Billy Pierce of the San Francisco Giants in 1962 for the last time a National League pitcher had 11 or more wins at home without a loss.

In fact he was one of only four pitchers since 2000 to go undefeated at home with a minimum of 10 decisions, joining Cliff Lee in 2008 (10-0), Johan Santana in 2006 (12-0) and Jamie Moyer in 2005 (10-0) as the only pitchers to do so. Lee and Santana were awarded the Cy Young in the years they accomplished the feat.

While Greinke won't be walking away with a Cy Young this year, his acquisition was a key move in the Brewers reaching the LCS for the first time since 1982, when they were still in the American League.

He is the perfect guy to start Game 1 as among the Brewers top four starters, only Greinke posted an ERA against the Cardinals (3.15) that was lower than his season ERA (3.83).

Greinke has made three starts against the Cardinals this season and lost just once, his last start against them in September.

In that start, the Cardinals were aggressive early in the count, swinging at the first pitch 43 percent of the time, the second highest by any opponent against Greinke in a start this season.

Four of the Cardinals' eight hits and both runs they scored that game were driven in on the first pitch. When Greinke has been able to get deeper into the count against the Cardinals this season, he's been dominant.

Kershaw aiming for pitching triple crown

September, 14, 2011
9/14/11
2:08
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Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
Clayton Kershaw looks to become the 9th pitcher to win the triple crown since 1956.

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (who pitches Wednesday) leads the National League in strikeouts (231), is tied for first with Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds in ERA (2.36) and trails Ian Kennedy of the Arizona Diamondbacks by one for the most wins (Kershaw has 18).

Eight pitchers have won the pitching triple crown (wins, ERA, and strikeouts) a combined 11 times since the Cy Young Award was first given out in 1956. All 11 of those seasons resulted in a first-place finish in Cy Young voting.

If Kershaw were to win, it wouldn’t be shocking for the award to go to a player from a losing team (the Dodgers are currently three games under .500). It’s happened 15 times including each of the last three seasons. The Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez (2010) and Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals (2009) won the AL Cy Young, and the San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum took home the NL award in 2008.

However, if teammate Matt Kemp were to win MVP he would become just the sixth winner from a losing team since the Baseball Writers started giving the award in 1931.

If Kemp and Kershaw were to pull off the double they would be the 19th set of teammates to do so but could be the first from a losing team.

Seventeen of the previous 18 teams that had both a Cy Young Award winner and a league MVP went to the playoffs with the exception being the 1962 Dodgers, who won 102 games but lost a best-of-three playoff to the Giants for the pennant. The worst team in terms of win percentage was the 1980 Philadelphia Phillies, who were 91-71 (.562).
The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants square off in this week's Sunday Night Baseball (ESPN, 8 ET) matchup.

Mike Pelfrey gets the ball for the Mets and enters the game with some historic numbers. Pelfrey has a 3.53 career ERA at home and a 5.44 career ERA on the road. According to Elias, Pelfrey has by far the largest discrepancy between his home and road ERA (in which the road is higher) among active pitchers (minimum 750 IP).

Next on that list would be Wandy Rodriguez (3.40 home, 4.89 road). This season, Pelfrey is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA at home and 2-7 with a 6.05 ERA on the road. His 5.44 career ERA on the road is the fourth highest among active pitchers (min. 250 IP).

To read more about Pelfrey's road struggles, click here.

The Giants counter with Matt Cain, who also brings a unique distinction with him to the mound. According to Elias, Cain has the lowest career run support of any active pitcher with 150-plus starts (through Friday).

If there's one thing the Giants are not afraid of this season, it's close games. The Giants are 25-12 in one-run games this season, which puts them on pace for 45 one-run wins. The 1978 Giants hold the MLB record for most wins by one run with 42.

Nineteen of those 25 wins in one-run games have been at home. They are on pace for 37 one-run wins at home.

The franchise record (since 1901) for one-run wins at home is 24 in 1978 (24-10). The modern MLB record (since 1901) for one-run wins at home is 28. Of the three teams to do that, two won the World Series: the 1940 Reds and the 1943 Yankees. The third, the 1974 Orioles, lost in the American League Championship Series.

If there's one thing the Giants are afraid of this season, it's scoring runs at home. The Elias Sports Bureau tells us that San Francisco is the only team in the majors that has yet to score more than six runs in a home game this season. Every other team has had at least three such games, with Texas leading the way -- scoring six or more runs in 21 home games this season.

The Giants’ current single-season streak of 43 consecutive home games scoring six or fewer runs is the longest since the 1942 Phillies had a 55-game streak from May 23 to September 27. And it’s the longest to start a season since the Pirates did it in their first 42 games of the 1917 season.
Jay Bruce dialed long-distance like no one else in the big leagues in May, according to ESPN's Home Run Tracker, and Mark Trumbo had the kind of mammoth blast that hadn't been seen in Kansas City in four years. What were some of the other home run oddities from the month of May?

Player Power Surge: HRs Totaling Most Distance (Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds)
Mike Stanton averaged more than 425 feet per home run in May, but no one totaled more total distance than Bruce. His 12 home runs tallied 4,776 feet, besting last month's winner, Ryan Braun, by nearly 700 feet. Jose Bautista, who leads the majors in home runs, has yet to win this award.

No Doubter: Longest True Distance (Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels)
Trumbo's Memorial Day blast off of Royals pitcher Louis Coleman at Kauffman Stadium traveled a true distance of 472 feet. It was the longest home run hit by an Angels player since Vladimir Guerrero's 473-foot shot off Zack Greinke at Kauffman on May 1, 2007.

Wall-Scraper: Shortest True Distance (Danny Valencia, Brennan Boesch)
On May 8, Valencia hit a 329-foot HR off Daisuke Matsuzaka. Eleven days later, Boesch hit a 329-foot shot off of Daniel Bard. Both home runs were hit at Fenway Park, which is not surprising. Of the 10 shortest home runs hit in 2011, six have been at Fenway Park.

Moonshot: Highest Apex* (Shelley Duncan, Cleveland Indians)
Duncan's 431-foot shot on Memorial Day off of Blue Jays pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes landed in the fifth deck at Rogers Centre, with an apex of 152 feet. Duncan became just the 15th player to reach the fifth deck at Rogers Centre, and the first since Jayson Werth on June 27, 2009 off of Brad Mills.

Line Drive: Lowest Apex (Carlos Peguero, Seattle Mariners)
Peguero’s May 16 shot came off Twins starter Scott Baker. With an apex of 39 feet, it was the lowest home run hit since Travis Snider’s 39-foot apex home run on May 3, 2010.

Fastball of the Month: Fastest Speed Off Bat (Juan Rivera, Toronto Blue Jays)
While his teammate Jose Bautista may steal all the attention, Rivera hit the fastest speed off bat in May. Rivera’s shot on May 22 off of Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez traveled 117.7 mph off the bat, and went 431 feet.

Server of the Month: Greatest Total Distance Allowed (Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds)
Arroyo allowed 10 home runs that traveled 3,981 feet. Last month's winner, Armando Galarraga, now finds himself in Triple-A Reno.

* Defined as the maximum vertical height a ball reaches during its flight
Today’s Trivia: On Monday, the Los Angeles Angels' Jered Weaver looks to become the first American League pitcher since Zack Greinke in 2009 to win each of his first six starts. Who was the last American League pitcher to lose each of his first six starts in a season?

Jered Weaver
Weaver
Weaver is off to one of the hottest starts in the American League, but there are several others who are not:

• The New York Yankees' Brett Gardner is hitting .140, which ranks last among 187 qualifying hitters. He’s 0-for-21 with 10 strikeouts on at-bats ending in an off-speed pitch.

• Gardner’s teammate Nick Swisher is 4-for-43 (.093) against right-handed pitches, a year after hitting a career-best .285 with 25 home runs against them.

• As a member of the Washington Nationals last season, Adam Dunn hit .314 with 24 home runs on at-bats ending in a fastball. In his first season in the American League, Dunn’s hitting .067 with two hits in 30 at-bats.

• The Chicago White Sox's Alex Rios is hitless in his last 20 at-bats, and has seen his batting average drop to .160. Last season, on pitches down the middle, Rios hit .392. This season? 1-for-12 (.083).

• The Angels Vernon Wells is 1-for-29 (.034) with two strikes in the count.

• Boston Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury already has struck out looking 11 times this season, tied for the most in the majors.

• The Oakland Athletics' Daric Barton is 0-for-19 this season on pitches located up in the strike zone or above the strike zone. Last season, he hit .315 (34-108) on those pitches.

• With a 29.4 swing percent, Cleveland Indians catcher Carlos Santana has been swinging at fewer pitches than anyone else in the league. (He was at 38.7 last season.) But the bigger discrepancy is his swing percent at pitches in the strike zone. Last season it was 61.9. In 2011, it’s just 47.2, fifth lowest in the majors.

Sunday was Derek Jeter’s first four-hit game before the month of May since April 9, 2001, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Jeter now has 36 four-hit games in his career, tied for third among Yankees in the Live Ball era (since 1920). Lou Gehrig has the most with 53 followed by Earle Combs’ 37.

Staying with the Yankees, A.J. Burnett is 8-0 in the month of April as a member of the Yankees, and 18-24 after April. The Yankees will be facing Phil Humber tonight at Yankee Stadium. Opponents are hitting just .061 (2-33) against Humber’s off-speed pitches this season.

Trivia Answer: In 2007, Jered’s brother Jeff Weaver was 0-6 after six starts for the Seattle Mariners.
Chicago Cubs
From August 14 until the end of the season, Carlos Zambrano went 8-0 with a 1.24 ERA and allowed just one home run. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the only pitcher (minimum 50 innings) who had a lower ERA than Zambrano over that span was the American League Cy Young winner, Felix Hernandez (1.07 ERA).

Carlos Pena was one of four players last season (along with Mark Reynolds, Jim Thome and Russell Branyan) with at least 25 home runs despite having fewer than 100 hits.

Cincinnati Reds
There are only three pitchers who have thrown at least 200 innings in each of the last six seasons: Mark Buehrle, Dan Haren and the Reds' Bronson Arroyo. He's made 169 starts since coming to the Reds in 2006, tied with Haren for the most starts over the last five seasons.

In 2010, Joey Votto became just the fourth player in franchise history to hit .300 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI and the first since George Foster in 1977.

Houston Astros
Three pitchers tied for the major-league lead in starts of at least six innings pitched; Cy Young winners Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez and Houston's Brett Myers each made 32 such starts.

The Astros actually had a better record after the trades involving Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman (34-27) than when both were on the roster (42-59).

Milwaukee Brewers
Much has been made about their offseason additions of starting pitchers Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. But with Greinke came Yuniesky Betancourt, whose -21 Defensive Runs Saved ranked last among shortstops in 2010. Betancourt's an addition to an infield that already wasn't the best defensively: Rickie Weeks was -11 (tied for worst among second basemen) and Prince Fielder was -13 (third worst among first basemen).

One reason the Brewers offense -- which ranked in the top four of the National League in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, runs and home runs – could improve is that Ryan Braun posted career lows in OPS, slugging percentage, home runs and stolen bases.

Pittsburgh Pirates
They have finished with a losing record every year since 1993. The 18 consecutive losing seasons is the longest streak ever among the four major sports.

Andrew McCutchen is widely considered to be one of the best young centerfielders in the game. However, he cannot escape the fact he was one of the worst "leading men" in baseball last year. Among position players who led their teams in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), McCutchen’s mark (3.3) was the fourth-lowest in the league.

St. Louis Cardinals
Not only was the combined 14.2 WAR of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday the best in baseball last season, but they were the only duo with a combined WAR above 12.5.

Pujols finished second in the 2010 National League MVP voting, the eighth time in his career that he's finished in the top three. The only player who has had more top-three finishes in MVP voting (since BBWAA voting began in 1931) is Barry Bonds with nine.

-- Justin Havens contributed to this report

Greinke, Marcum have hidden benefit

December, 22, 2010
12/22/10
10:33
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The trades for Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum will benefit the Milwaukee Brewers beyond just through their pitching capabilities. In obtaining this pair, the Brewers got two of the best fielders at their position in the sport.

Greinke tied for fifth-best among pitchers in 2010 with seven defensive runs saved. His 18 over the last three seasons rate second-best in baseball. Marcum, who ex-Baseball Tonight analyst J.P. Ricciardi said would someday win a Gold Glove, finished with four runs saved.

How does a pitcher save runs? There are two ways.

For one, both Greinke and Marcum very good at turning batted balls into outs. In Baseball Info Solutions plus-minus system, Greinke rated a +7 in 2010 and a +13 since 2008 (meaning he turned 13 more balls hit his way into outs than the average fielder would have), tied for second-best in baseball. Marcum was a +4 last season and a +8 in his last three seasons (he missed 2009 due to injury).

Greinke finished runner-up in BIS’ Fielding Bible Awards voting for pitchers, and for good reason. Three times last year, he got an out on a ground ball that earned him a +.88 or better (meaning 88 percent of balls hit to that location at that speed would not have been turned into outs by the average fielding pitcher). Each of those plays required Greinke to make a quick reaction, made possible by a follow-through that left him in an ideal fielding position.

The other stat for which both Greinke and Marcum get some credit is for their work in preventing runners from stealing bases.

Last season Marcum yielded only seven steals in 15 attempts for a career-best rate of 46.7 percent, thanks partly to Jose Molina’s presence.

The Brewers might want to consider picking up Molina. Thanks to Baseball-Reference.com's splits pages, we know that Marcum made nine starts with Molina behind the plate last season, and had a 1.74 ERA, a .218 opponents on-base percentage in them, with opponents failing on all three steal attempts.

Greinke has had more sustained excellence in this area, yielding only 19 stolen bases in 43 attempts over the last three seasons (not including five times that Greinke picked a runner off).

Over the last three seasons, opponents have only stolen 19 bases in 43 attempts with Greinke pitching (not including five times that Greinke picked a runner off). Compare that to the success of baserunners stealing against his Royals counterparts (76.4 percent) in that time and it’s evident that Greinke has a skill of significant value.

As much as the Brewers improved this offseason, there remains one very significant issue -- their infield defense rated among the worst in the sport last season. All four projected starters for 2011 (Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee) ranked at or near the very bottom at their respective positions in defensive runs saved, not just last season, but over the last three to four years.

Thus, they figure to be quite thankful for the presence of both Greinke and Marcum this season, not just for how they prevent runs on the mound, but on how they prevent them in the field as well.

Brewing up a special rotation in Milwaukee

December, 19, 2010
12/19/10
2:03
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Just when it appeared the Milwaukee Brewers were caught in the middle between contention and rebuilding, the team continues its complete overhaul of its starting pitching staff, acquiring 2009 AL Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for a bevy of prospects. While the merits of the prospects will certainly be debated, what cannot be argued is that Greinke makes the Brewers staff among the most formidable in the National League.

Greinke followed up his 2009 Cy Young campaign with a solid, if unspectacular 2010. His traditional numbers were not very good (10-14, 4.17), his K/9 rate had a significant drop (from 9.50 to 7.40, closer to his career average) and his HR/9 rate nearly doubled, from 0.43 to 0.74. But many of Greinke’s problems in 2010 were not his fault.

Zack Greinke
Greinke
Greinke posted a career-high ground-ball percentage (46.0%), but he was doing so with terrible fielders responsible for getting to all those ground balls. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Kansas City was 30th in all of baseball in Defensive Runs Saved in 2010 (-88). Greinke’s FIP (3.34) was over three-quarters of a run better than his ERA. The 2010 Brewers were league-average defensively last season (-0.7, 16th in Team UZR), but that represents a drastic improvement for Greinke.

One red flag is Yuniesky Betancourt, who is coming with Greinke to the Brewers. Betancourt was the third-worst starting shortstop in MLB in 2010 based on UZR (-9.5) and the less he plays at shortstop for the 2011 Brewers, the better.

Milwaukee acquired Shaun Marcum from the Toronto Blue Jays on December 6th, giving the Brewers a right-hander with success against the power bats of the AL East. Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Marcum had an impressive 2010, going 13-8 with an ERA of 3.64 and a nearly equal FIP of 3.74. He had a very low walk rate in 2010 (1.98 BB/9), despite the fact that only 48.7% of all strikes he threw were in the strike zone.

Shaun Marcum
Marcum
Marcum is adept at getting hitters to chase, with nearly a third of all swings against him being on pitches outside the zone (30.4%). Marcum had a significant change in his arsenal coming off of Tommy John surgery. He threw a higher percentage of fastballs in 2010 than he had in 2008 with the Blue Jays (from 48.3% to 61.2%). He also threw a greater percentage of changeups (23.2% to 24.1%), but was more effective, with his batting average against his changeup dropping from .213 to .152.

Clearly, the Brewers can expect an upgrade in performance from their staff. But just how much? By using the Wins Above Replacement statistic, it’s possible to estimate how much of an upgrade Greinke and Marcum will be.

In 2010, the Brewers’ fourth and fifth starters -- Dave Bush and Manny Parra -- combined to give the team 47 starts, going 10-20, 5.09 ERA. That combined production was worth -0.1 Wins Above Replacement.

On the flip side, Greinke contributed 5.2 WAR and Marcum chipped in 3.5. So, assuming Greinke and Marcum repeat their performances from 2010 -- a reasonable suggestion -- the Brewers stand to gain nearly nine wins. That’s the difference between 77-85 and 86-76. Or, between non-contention and contention.

1st Pitch: Jays mashing for history

September, 8, 2010
9/08/10
3:09
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Today’s Trivia: Neither the Oakland Athletics nor the Seattle Mariners have a player with at least 15 home runs. Kevin Kouzmanoff’s 14 leads Oakland, while Russell Branyan paces Seattle with 13 (in just 50 games!). If either team ends up without a 15-HR player, it would the first time for an AL team since the 1992 Angels. Who led that team in home runs? (Hint: He has the third-most career HR for a player who homered in his first at-bat.)

Quick Hits: With their third straight game with at least three home runs, the Toronto Blue Jays now have 215 on the season. That’s tied for the third most in franchise history and 33 more than any other team. Let’s dive into Toronto’s torrid pace with help from STATS LLC.

• Toronto has hit at least three homers in each of its last three games. In 138 games this season, the Houston Astros have the same number of three-HR games.

• The Blue Jays now have 33 three-HR games, the mostby a team in a season since the 2005 Texas Rangers. Over the last 90 years, the 1997 Mariners had the most three-HR games with 43.

• Speaking of the Mariners, they’ve only hit a home run in 62 games this season. The Blue Jays have hit multiple home runs in 63 games this season.

• The Blue Jays have hit an incredible 181 home runs against right-handed pitchers, 54 more than any other team. In fact, only the Boston Red Sox (182) have more total HR than the Blue Jays have against righties alone.

• The Blue Jays are hitting just .218 against lefties this season, which would be the lowest season average over the last 35 years. Not surprisingly, only 34 of their homers have come against southpaws (tied for 17th in the majors).

• The Blue Jays are on pace for 150 home runs at home this season. That puts them just off the pace of 2005 Rangers, who hold the record with 153 HR at home.

Jose Bautista has already hit 27 home runs at home this season, the most by an AL player since Mark Teixeira’s 30 in Arlington back in 2005. The MLB record would be a task though. That belongs to Hank Greenberg, who hit 39 of his 58 home runs at home in 1938.

• At home, Bautista is averaging a home run every 7.93 at-bats. That would be the best in the American League over the last 50 years. In 1994, Frank Thomas averaged one per 8.14 at-bats at home. Over that span, Bautista’s rate would be the sixth best in the majors behind two seasons apiece for Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire, and Hank Aaron’s 1971 campaign.

Today’s Leaderboard: Of Adam Lind’s 20 home runs, 14 have come in two-strike counts. Compare that to Baustista, who has 8 of his 43 HR coming with two strikes. Lind’s total is the most in the AL and trails only Albert Pujols, who has 15 more total home runs.

Key Matchups: Zack Greinke has not enjoyed facing the Minnesota Twins this season, going 0-3 with a 10.29 ERA. In fact, take out his starts against Minnesota and Greinke’s ERA would drop from 3.87 to 3.36, as noted in the Kansas City Star. Joe Mauer is 4-for-8 against Greinke this season, after entering 2010 just 6-for-27 against him.

After missing two years due to injury, Chris Capuano made it back to the big leagues in 2010. However, that means he will have to face Albert Pujols again for the first time since 2007. If Pujols wants to make a run at the Triple Crown, it will require a massive climb in batting average. Tonight is a good place to start. Albert is 15-for-27 against Capuano, a .556 average that is his third highest against anyone he’s faced 20 times.

Trivia Answer: Gary Gaetti led the 1992 Angels with 12 home runs. That’s the fewest HR to lead an AL team in a non-strike year since Bobby Bonds paced the 1976 Angels with 10.

1st Pitch: Diving into 1st-pitch trends

July, 6, 2010
7/06/10
1:23
PM ET
Quick Hits: The importance of a first-pitch strike can be summed up rather simply. After a 1-0 count, the league average is .275 with a .827 OPS. But after a count goes to 0-1, those numbers plummet to .229 BA and .619 OPS. Let’s take a look at some notable trends on the first pitch:
  • Among starting pitchers, only Carlos Silva (70.0) throws a higher percentage of first-pitch strikes than Cliff Lee (69.0). So it should be little surprise that batters come out swinging. Opponents swing at 39.2 percent of Lee’s first pitches. The last starter with a higher rate? Johan Santana’s 39.7 in 2005.
  • Somehow Scott Downs has put together a solid season in the Toronto bullpen despite a 45.0 first-pitch strike percentage. After a 1-0 count, opponents are hitting just .217 against Downs.
  • James Shields has given up 34 hits on the first pitch, and is on pace to allow the most for the second straight year. Opponents are hitting .540 against him on the first pitch (league average is .339).
  • Shields has also allowed seven first-pitch home runs. The entire Yankees’ pitching staff has allowed just four.
  • Chris Carpenter has hit four batters with the first pitch. That is more than seven teams have all season.
  • As a team, no one swings at the first pitch more than the Blue Jays (33.2 percent) or less than the Red Sox (19.1). Not surprisingly, the Blue Jays have the fourth-worst batting average on the first pitch (.310), while the Red Sox are fourth-best (.371).
  • Of Geovany Soto’s eight home runs, five came on the first pitch. He has the highest first-pitch OPS (2.115) of any player with at least 20 plate appearances ending on the first pitch.
  • Pablo Sandoval has grounded into nine double plays on the first pitch this season. That’s more than six teams and almost twice as many as the Mets (5).
  • Brett Gardner has only swung at the first pitch 18 times all season and has the second lowest percentage of swings in the majors behind Franklin Gutierrez. Gardner has made those swings count, having gone 5-for-8 on the first pitch.
Today’s Trivia: Orel Hershiser retired 10 years ago today. Who is the winningest Dodgers pitcher since July 6, 2000?

Today’s Leaderboard: Given that no one swings at a higher percentage of first pitches, it should be no surprise that Vladimir Guerrero leads the majors with 22 RBI on the first pitch. Delmon Young is next with 21. In his career, Guerrero has 382 RBI coming on the first pitch. That’s 78 more than the next active player (Manny Ramirez).

Key Matchups: Zack Greinke is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his career against the Mariners. Consider that the second, fourth and fifth hitters in the Mariners lineup are a combined 3-for-51 (.059), and it’s easy to see why. Chone Figgins is 0-for-16 against Greinke and hasn’t even walked. Meanwhile, Jose Lopez (1-for-17) and Franklin Gutierrez (2-for-18) have not fared much better.

Vernon Wells’ overall numbers (19 HR, .872 OPS) may have warranted his All-Star selection, but much of that is courtesy of an electric April. Over his last 25 games, Wells is hitting just .191 with a .651 OPS. Could Tuesday be the start of a turnaround? Wells is 8-for-20 with four home runs in his career against Carl Pavano. No other player has more than three long balls against the Twins hurler. Wells is hitting .600 with three home runs in his last 10 at-bats against Pavano.

Trivia Answer: Since the day of Orel Hershiser’s retirement, Derek Lowe’s 54 wins are the most in a Dodger uniform. Chad Billingsley could tie that total in his next start. Only the Pirates have fewer wins from their wins leader over that span. For comparison, Hershiser won 135 games over 13 seasons with the Dodgers.

1st Pitch: The league leaders you never see

June, 30, 2010
6/30/10
1:53
PM ET
Quick Hits: Not all statistical categories are created equal, but they all have a leader. Let’s take a look at some of the more obscure – and in some cases meaningless – league leaders.
  • On Tuesday, David Murphy reached base by catcher’s interference for the third time this season, which leads the majors. The last player with more than 3 in a season? Edwin Encarnacion who had four in 2007.
  • Derek Jeter leads the majors with 181 ground balls, 22 more than the next player, according to STATS LLC. Having led the majors with 316 in 2009, Jeter is on pace for 385 grounders this season.
  • Carlos Lee is tops with 114 fly balls, though Rod Barajas has 108 in 89 fewer at-bats than Lee.
  • Vladimir Guerrero has swung at the first pitch 152 times, which is 14 more than Vernon Wells. Over the last 35 years, the most first pitch swings in a season belongs to Nomar Garciaparra (381 in 2003).
  • Rafael Betancourt and Carlos Villanueva have both had three batters reach on a strikeout. Yet, it hasn’t happened to Tim Wakefield this season. He is the active leader in that category with 46 in his career.
  • Zack Greinke has had the most batters reach on an error (8), but not the most unearned runs. That would be Felipe Paulino with 11.
  • Ross Ohlendorf leads the majors with four pickoff errors, which is more than every other team except the Tigers.
  • The Dodgers have had seven hitters reach on a strikeout, a huge number when you consider that 26 of 30 teams have three or fewer.
  • Dave Bush leads the majors with seven sacrifice flies against with seven. But how about the Diamondbacks’ Carlos Rosa? He’s given up five sac flies in just 13.1 innings of work.
  • Derek Lowe is on pace to issue 18 intentional walks, which would be the most since Roger McDowell’s 20 in 1991.
  • Justin Verlander has had the most pitches fouled off with 370.
Today’s Trivia: Denard Span tied the modern record with three triples in a game on Tuesday, the first player to do that since Rafael Furcal in 2002. Who holds the record for most at-bats in a season without a triple?

Today’s Leaderboard: Dustin Pedroia leads the majors having fouled off 294 pitches, according to Inside Edge. That accounts for 46.7 percent of the swings he’s taken. Ichiro Suzuki (271) is the only other player with more than 260 fouls this season.

Key Matchups: Paul Konerko is the batter that Zack Greinke has faced most in his career. He’s held the White Sox slugger to a .137 batting average in 51 at-bats. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that’s the second lowest batting average in a matchup between two current AL players (min. 40 at-bats). Nick Swisher’s .111 in 45 AB against John Lackey is the only one worse.

Of the 27 times that Adrian Gonzalez and Jeff Francis have done battle, the Padres slugger has struck out 11 times, or 40.7 percent of the time. That’s his highest K rate against any pitcher he’s faced at least 20 times. Overall, Gonzalez has hit .154 with a .454 OPS against Francis. The two haven’t faced off since 2008, but Francis has struck out Gonzalez in five of the last six at-bats and retired him nine times in a row.

Trivia Answer: Aaron Hill was without a triple in 682 at-bats last season, which set a record according the Elias Sports Bureau. In fact, he is in the midst of a streak of 1,394 consecutive at-bats without a triple. It’s rather ironic for a player whose first career hit was a triple.
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